Reaction to the Atlanta Hawks Trade For Kirk Hinirch

My thoughts on the trade are here.

Larry Drew:

"As everybody knows we’ve been searching for a point guard for a while, somebody who can come in and run this club. Not saying that Mike didn’t go a good job, but there just comes a point where a change has to take place. We as an organization felt like it was that time.

Kirk brings such a wealth of toughness at that position. He’s a heady guy, he’s a smart guy. All the intangibles you are looking for he brings to the table."

Joe Johnson:

"We let three good guys go who I had become really good friends with. But at the same time we understand the business aspect and this is the profession we chose knowing that trades happen. You have to deal with it. Getting Kirk and Armstrong is definitely going to contribute to what we are trying to do. Kirk is very defensive-minded and a guy who can really knock down the open shot and penetrate and make plays for others as well. I think he is going to be beneficial for us."

Jamal Crawford:

"It’s tough to tell now [how the trade will work]. Mike was the leader at point guard for a while. Jordan has a bright future. Mo is just solid, gives you defense and 3-point shooting. But I played with Kirk Hinrich and I know what he’s about."

Michael Cunningham:

Moving Jordan and the first-round pick is the latest indication the Hawks, when push comes to shove, are more focused on making moves they think will help now vs. player and asset development in the future.

Which is true except when it isn't: like when the Hawks take Jeff Teague instead of DeJuan Blair or Darren Collison, or when they sell the 31st pick, then buyout Pape Sy's contract.

Mark Bradley deems the trade OK:

Best-case scenario: Hinrich does his hybrid-guard act — he used to be quite good at it, but his numbers haven’t been anything special the past four seasons — and puts the other Hawks in the right position and this team manages to win a first-round series.

Worst-case scenario: Hinrich fails to mesh with Joe Johnson — say what you want about Bibby, but he and Johnson made a nice tandem — and the Hawks, who have bombed out in Round 2 the past two seasons, bomb out in Round 1 this spring.

Either way, the addition of Hinrich and Armstrong is no cause for re-calibration of this team’s ceiling. The Hawks aren’t much different today than they’ve been for the past three years. They’re a pretty good team in an Eastern Conference that keeps getting more competitive at the top.

It comes as no surprise that this trade is met with scorn at HawkStr8Talk:

The trade sucks - Kirk Hinrich, age 30, is not an NBA difference maker at a position that is full of difference makers. The defense gets better, but only incrementally. The Hawks needed a difference maker at PG and so, they got another guy to join Collins and Thomas and Powell on the bench twiddling their thumbs. And so what did they give up - the guy you drafted and raved about who could replace a one dimensional Jamal Crawford (furthering my fears that we could actually RESIGN a guy who isn't going to help your team win a title) and a first round draft pick who could help you build depth on the cheap. Doesn't matter to me that Bibby and Evans needed to leave town, but a lateral at BEST move just sucks.

What else do we lose? Future flexibility come 2012 to actually sign someone who matters. Or in other words, fail, fail, fail!!! If the player you trade for doesn't change your seed and doesn't change your lot come playoff time (I mean does ANYONE think Hinrich is the difference in the Hawks winning and losing vs. the Orlando Magic). So, I say again - this organization is completely and utterly clueless. Period. I'm on record as saying this trade will blow up in the Hawks' face. At least we got a 4 time all star for giving up extra stuff that wasn't necessary in the Joe Johnson, but going overboard for Kirk Hinrich...REALLY!?!?!

I think it's the extra stuff the Hawks gave up to get Joe Johnson that's the root cause of the team's current second-round ceiling and the lodestar of the organization's limitations. The Joe Johnson sign-and-trade worked as well as could be expected but didn't bring the team significantly closer to winning a championship (at least not nearly as much as drafting Josh Smith and Al Horford did). That's why you don't see typically see teams build around the fourth-best player on a conference finalist.

The Hawks were right about Johnson having more potential than his production in Phoenix indicated. They were (and are) wrong about how good he could be (and is) in absolute terms.

Sekou Smith (who wanted the Hawks to draft Mike Conley, Jr. rather than Al Horford):

Jeff Teague, the Hawks’ second-year point guard, is clearly not ready for a starring role and might not be anytime soon. He was as given every opportunity to supplant Bibby and couldn’t do it. He’s the latest in a long line of supposed point guard solutions that ended up being a problem (Speedy Claxton, Acie Law) for the Hawks.

They’ve tried everything at the point from Royal Ivey to Anthony Johnson to Tyronn Lue to even playing Joe Johnson at point guard during his first season with the team. That’s nine different point guard options spanning two different regimes (former general manager Billy Knight is the man who drafted Marvin Williams, paid Claxton, drafted Law and also traded for Bibby while current general manager Rick Sund is the man who shipped Claxton and Law out of town for Jamal Crawford, drafted Teague and made the deal for Hinrich).

While Hinrich is clearly an upgrade over Bibby, particularly at the defensive end, he still doesn’t solve the Hawks’ seemingly eternal point guard problem.

Zach Lowe thinks the trade helps both the Hawks and the Wizards:

Nabbing Hinrich doesn’t make the Hawks a title contender, but it feels like the kind of move that could have a bigger impact on the court than many anticipate. Start with this: Hinrich can defend point guards. Very well. And that addresses the main problem with Atlanta’s defense, which ranks about average despite the Hawks’ having faced the easiest schedule in the league. It isn’t just that Bibby can’t defend point guards; it’s the degree to which the Hawks have had to compensate for the 32-year-old’s defensive issues. They’ve had to tire out Johnson by assigning him point guard duty. They’ve gone to zone defenses that haven’t really worked. They’ve switched too often, though less so this season under rookie coach Larry Drew.

They can toss out those gimmicks now and go to work with lineups like Hinrich, Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith and Al Horford. That works.

The Hawks will miss Bibby’s shooting, but it’s not as if they are losing a pick-and-roll stud who initiates most of their sets. Bibby handles the ball some, but he’s usually a spot-up shooter and screen-setter in Drew’s offense, which mixes in motion plays, post-ups and lots of off-the-dribble work for Johnson and Jamal Crawford. Hinrich, 30, can step into Bibby’s role immediately, and he happens to be shooting a solid 38 percent from three-point range (and a career-best 45 percent overall) this season.

One small bonus that Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel picked up on immediately: Hinrich is 6-3, tall and strong for a point guard, and he has defended a ton of shooting guards through a career of shifting between the two backcourt positions. That gives Atlanta a nice answer for when Miami goes to lineups that don’t include traditional point guards, and if the Heat earn the top seed in the Eastern Conference, there’s at least a small chance the two teams will meet in the second round.

John Hollinger gave the Hawks a B:

As far as need goes, it's tough to do better than this. Atlanta Hawks fans who have spent half a decade watching their point guards get torched night after night will now have to cope with the shocking sight of Hinrich competently defending opponents at either guard spot.

...

Hinrich isn't as good a spot-up shooter as the departed Mike Bibby but he's better at everything else, and his ability to play off the ball should make him a solid backcourt cohort with Jamal Crawford or even Jeff Teague. Look for Joe Johnson to also benefit, as he'll no longer be spending his nights chasing all the point guards that Bibby couldn't contain.

...

Oh, Hilton Armstrong is in the trade too. He'll make Jason Collins and Josh Powell feel better about themselves in practice.

Kevin Pelton summarizes what the trade might mean for the Hawks on the court the rest of this season and beyond:

How much is that upgrade worth? I’d say maybe a game or two over a full season. Ordinarily, that’s an enormous difference. But the gap between the Hawks and the East’s best teams is so large that I’m not sure this move makes much of a dent. Atlanta still looks to me like first-round fodder for the Magic. That’s when you have to start wondering about the Hawks’ future. This deal means giving up two years’ worth of young contributors on cost-effective rookie deals. Backup point guard Jeff Teague is the only growing player of note on the Atlanta roster, and this deal along with rumors involving Teague seem to indicate the Hawks don’t view him as a starter any time soon. So Atlanta isn’t good enough right now, and can’t count on adding young talent. That’s a pretty bad recipe for long-term relevance.

At Bullets Forever, Mike Prada is just lukewarm on the trade.

Atlanta Hawks Trade Mike Bibby, et al. For Kirk Hinrich

The trade: Mike Bibby, Mo Evans, Jordan Crawford, and Atlanta's 2011 first-round pick for Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong.

There is more to this deal for the Hawks than Kirk Hinrich not being Mike Bibby. Though not the player he was, say, four seasons ago, Hinrich is still younger and better than Bibby today and Hinrich's strengths will not be as redundant while playing alongside Jamal Crawford.

Hinrich has a well-deserved reputation as a good defender and, even accounting for the diminishing effect of age, he will likely be more effective defending in front Josh Smith and Al Horford than he was in front of Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee. It should be remembered though that, even at his defensive peak, was never a great defender of point guards. His greatest strength was defending bigger guards where his long arms and tenacious effort off-the-ball made up for his lack of quickness (at least a lack relative to the league's quickest point guards) in ways those skills couldn't when defending point guards. Hinrich will pick up much of the slack Bibby left his teammates to deal with on the defensive end but won't do much to solve the problems caused by Crawford's (arguably worse) play on that end of the court.

Offensively, Hinrich should be (at least once he picks up the offense) able to match Bibby's contributions. Over their careers, they're both 37.9% three-point shooters. Going back to his time at Kansas, Hinrich has always been a far better shooter when spotting up than when coming off screens so he should feel comfortable playing off Joe Johnson, Crawford, Josh Smith, and Al Horford.

As for when the ball's in Hinrich's hands, unlike Bibby, he hasn't seen his assist rate crater yet. Hinrich's two-and-a-half years younger than Bibby and it's fair to assume that he'll be more dynamic as a pick-and-roll ball-handler than Bibby. If so, running pick-and-roll with the first unit might actually turn into pick-and-roll occasionally rather than just pick-and-pop. The flip side of that is that Hinrich will probably turn the ball over more often than Bibby.

Trading Mo Evans likely means more Damien Wilkins but if it means less Mo Evans plus Damien Wilkins, then it might help the Hawks marginally. When Jordan Crawford saw his playing time decrease upon Joe Johnson's injury, it appeared he was on the typical young Hawk career path. Who knows what kind of player he'll become but it's hard to envision him becoming a useful player here. Same goes for whoever the Hawks would have picked late in this summer's draft. For his part, Hilton Armstrong figures to slot in alongside Josh Powell and Etan Thomas to form a triumvirate of useless big men on the end of the bench.

Financially, the addition of Hinrich adds a few hundred thousand dollars to Atlanta's 2010-11 (though the Hawks remain approximately $200,000 under the luxury tax line) and 2011-12 payroll but his expiring deal should be far easier to deal than Bibby's after this season or during the next should the Hawks wish to do so. The inclusion of Crawford the Younger and the 2011 first-round pick will save the Hawks some future guaranteed money as well.

Hinrich is no longer good enough to make a real difference over a 25-game stretch but his good qualities will help the Hawks defend on the perimeter and may well make a positive difference for the Hawks in the matchup calculus of a seven-game series.

Production Is In the Eye of the Beholder

On January 28th, Larry Drew said this about Jeff Teague:

"I want to see more production. I want to see more consistency, and that has not been the case. He has shown flashes of being a consistent player but for whatever reason I haven’t gotten the consistency from him."

Jeff Teague has played 494 minutes in 42 of Atlanta's 51 games. In 16 of the 42 games in which Teague has appeared, he's played fewer than 10 minutes. In 7 of the 42 games in which he's appeared, he's played fewer than 5 minutes. Mike Bibby has played in all 51 games for a total of 1529 minutes. Let's compare their production.

Name	Pts/36	2PTFG%	3PTFG%	FT Rate	TS%
Bibby	11.3	41.7%	44.3%	7.2	56.5%
Teague	11.6	43.4%	35.3%	25.2	50.3%

Name	A/36	TO/36	BS/36	S/36	OR%	DR%
Bibby	4.4	1.5	0.1	0.8	1.1	8.7
Teague	5.6	2.8	0.9	1.5	1.5	12.3

If you weighted the value of their assists, Teague's lead in that column would increase as one-third of his assists this season have set up a teammate's three-point basket. Just 14.5% of Bibby's assists have led to a shot worth three points.

The point isn't how well Jeff Teague has been playing. He hasn't, really. The point is that Mike Bibby, despite his experience, the loyalty of the coaching staff, regular minutes, and the benefit of playing the vast majority of his minutes alongside the team's best players, has not been sufficiently more productive than his second-year teammate.

There's been little in Teague's performance or in his head coach's treatment of him this season that suggests he is the franchise's point guard of the future. That doesn't mean he isn't likely the franchise's best point guard of the present some nights.

Allowing the gulf between the platonic ideal of Jeff Teague's potential and the reality of his play both to limit the return on the 19th pick of the 2009 draft and the maximum possible amount of success for the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks would be foolish.

For a counter-example, look to Oklahoma City, where Eric Maynor (drafted immediately after Teague and by a different organization), plugs along for 14 minutes a night while barely breaking 50% in terms of TS%, and averaging 11.3 points, 6 assists, and 2.3 turnovers per 36 minutes.

Those numbers look familiar?

For Scott Brooks they're sufficient for a second-year player to back up All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook on a regular basis. How regular? Maynor has played in each of Oklahoma City's 50 games. His season low in minutes in a game is 6:04. He has played at least 10 minutes in 46 of Oklahoma City's 50 games and at least 9 minutes in 48 of 50 games.

An average backup point guard is a quality return on a late first-round pick. Unrealistic expectations shouldn't stand in the way. Especially when the team in question drafted potential ahead of players ready to contribute immediately.

ESPN.com: Under the Radar Storylines

The TrueHoop Network combined forces to provide the national audience with under-reported items about their respective teams. My contribution:

What upbeat story deserves more attention?

Before the season it seemed a question of when rather than if Jeff Teague would replace Mike Bibby as the team's starting point guard. Instead, Bibby, who is not exactly synonymous with movement, has thrived in Larry Drew's motion offense, consistently finding unguarded space on the perimeter, knocking down 53.9 percent of his 3-point attempts, and setting solid back screens to free his teammates.

What downbeat story deserves more attention?

The Hawks are (again) a mediocre defensive team because they are (again) a below-average defensive rebounding team. They've finished 24th or worse in defensive rebound rate for five straight seasons, yet the organization has not addressed this persistent weakness. Since drafting Al Horford third overall in 2007, the Hawks have used five straight picks on guards and filled out the rotation with poor (Josh Powell) or comically poor (Jason Collins) defensive rebounders.

Cheers to Mike Bibby for being even more deserving of attention at the time of publication than at the time of writing.

Early Returns On Continuing Themes, Part 1

It's far too early from on/off data from this season to contain much meaning but I thought I'd look at players and combinations of players that have been discussed previously with an eye at determining if anything might be changing.

All data courtesy of BasketballValue.com

1) Mike Bibby is capable defensively if Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford are all on the floor. If they're not all on the floor, Bibby is overwhelmed.

It was true last season:

Bibby	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
w/ all three	2359	Pts	103.2
w/o any of the three	1676	Pts	109.2

And it's true so far this season:

Bibby	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
w/ all three	245	242	98.8
w/o any of the three	354	386	109

2) Marvin Williams has not, in limited minutes, been a defensive savior at small forward.

Last season, the Hawks were much better defensively when Marvin Williams played small forward:

Williams 09-10	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
Williams at 3	4113	4191	101.9
anyone else at 3	3319	3764	113.4

The difference is far smaller so far this season:

Williams 10-11	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
Williams at 3	389	418	107.5
anyone else at 3	623	672	107.9

One possible explanation is that Larry Drew is only using Marvin Williams at the 3. Last season, Williams played 11.66% of his defensive possessions at other positions and the Hawks allowed almost 8 more points per 100 possession with Williams on the court but not playing the 3. So far this season, Williams has played just 16 defensive possessions (3.95%) at other positions and the Hawks are allowing 11.3 more points per 100 possession with Williams on the court but not playing the 3.

3) Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia play well together even if they play together rarely.

Pachulia & Horford	Off Eff	Poss	Def Eff	Poss	+/-
2008-09	N/A	672	N/A	670	+1.7
2009-10	110.7	291	96.9	270	+13.8
2010-11	120.4	49	84.3	51	+35.9

A second post, covering different players and combinations will appear later in the week.

2010-11 Season Preview: Mike Bibby

Previously: Jamal Crawford, Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Evans, Josh Powell, Jordan Crawford, Etan Thomas and Jason Collins, Pape Sy

Entering 2010-11 Mike Bibby is...

a) no longer a quality NBA starter.
b) a chilling harbinger of what can happen to an organization that pays players as if they will not decline with age.
c) the player Larry Drew should start at point guard.
d) all of the above

I lean toward 'd' myself. Amusing as the machinations were, Mike Woodson did a decent job of hiding Bibby defensively last season, primarily by giving him the bulk of his minutes alongside the team's three good defenders: Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford. In 2009-10, 58.5% of Bibby's defensive possessions came with the starting frontcourt also on the floor. The difference between Bibby playing alongside that complete set of defenders and playing alongside any other combination of teammates was 6 points per 100 possessions.

Though Bibby does his best to make up for his inability to move laterally by gambling for steals and flopping at the merest chance of drawing a charge, he's a very poor defender. Moving Bibby to the bench and giving him the bulk of his minutes alongside Jamal Crawford, an out-of-position Maurice Evans, and the dregs of the post rotation would only* exacerbate the team's defensive weaknesses.

*I guess it could also turn the starters into rogue MVP candidates for hard-core plus/minus enthusiasts.

Whether due to his continued decline or Jeff Teague's improvement, Bibby figures to set a career low in minutes per game for a second consecutive season. It's probably in the best interest of both the Atlanta Hawks and Larry Drew that as many of those minutes* as possible come at the start of the first and third quarters alongside the three Hawks capable of pulling extra defensive weight.

*I imagine something between 16 and 20 minutes per game is the ideal target.

2009-10 Season Review: Mike Bibby

Previously: Zaza Pachulia, Marvin Williams, Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Mike Woodson, Rick Sund

Mike Bibby's limitations have been obvious since he arrived in March 2008. This season those limitations began to surpass his contributions. For the first time in his career, Bibby played less than 30 minutes a game (27.4) and averaged fewer than 13.6 points/36 minutes (12.0). Though still a fine passer and shooter, Bibby's declining quickness makes it difficult for him to create shots either for himself or for his teammates. Bibby's assist rate declined noticeably in 2009-10 compared to his first year-plus in Atlanta as did the percentage of his made field goals which were assisted by a teammate.

Bibby	A/36	%FGM (assisted)
2008-09	5.7	62.1
2009-10	5.1	79.5

Somewhat remarkably, Bibby had as many field goal attempts at the rim (45) in the entire 2009-10 season as he did in the in the 33 games he played with the Hawks in 2008.

Bibby	%FGA (at rim)	%FGA (16-23')	3PTA/FGA
2008	10.9	37.9	45.5
2008-09	7.9	41.6	42.6
2009-10	6.9	36.3	50.3

To Bibby's credit, he appears to be doing the most he can with what he's got left: forgoing the long two-pointer in favor of more three-point attempts (as a percentage of the whole) and making an extremely high percentage (58.1%) of the rare shots (72) he gets within 10 feet.

Bibby tries to accomplish the same feat defensively but it's much more difficult to use skill to overcome a lack of size and athleticism in that aspect of the game. True, the Hawks allowed 3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Bibby on the floor than with him off the floor but I suspect that had as much to do with amount of floor time Bibby shared with Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford* as well as the second unit's defensive struggles than with Bibby experiencing a defensive renaissance. In both 2007-08 and 2008-09, Bibby's defensive on/off numbers more closely matched his reputation as the Hawks allowed 5.8 and 6.9 more points per 100 possessions with Bibby on the court, respectively.

*58.5% (2359 possessions) of Bibby's on-court defensive possessions were played alongside Williams, Smith, and Horford and the Hawks allowed 1.032 points per possession with those four on the floor. With Bibby on the court and any or all of Williams, Smith, and Horford off the court (1676 possessions), the Hawks allowed 1.092 points per possession.

It's difficult to imagine a scenario where Bibby plays the majority of the team's minutes at point guard next season. Bibby's 2009-10 offensive production would be perfectly acceptable (if pricey) from a backup point guard and his defensive impact would be lessened both by reduced minutes and a new head coach not designing the team's defensive game plan to best hide Bibby. Giving Jeff Teague more minutes at the point appears to be the most plausible in-house, short-term option for improving the team's defense as well as being necessary for the team's long-term player development strategy.

The plausibility of Teague playing at an acceptable level for a starter will be addressed shortly.

Mike Woodson: Hubie Can, You Can't

Michael Cunningham reports from Hawks practice...

Mike Woodson:

"We see that on tape and we point that out. don’t need Hubie or them guys like that [to do it]. I heard comments today that Hubie was blistering Josh Smith. Well, he can get away with it because he’s coached. But I don’t know if I can let you guys get away with it."

I presume the lowly fold watching the game are held to same exclusionary standard as members of the basketball press.

Woodson:

"That is my job as coach to point that out to Smoove and guys like that when they are doing that. And trust me, it don’t go unnoticed. He knows about it at the end of the day. Our tapes are thoroughly broken down and mistakes are pointed out."

I don't think there's anything to be gained by Mike Woodson ripping Josh Smith in the press. I also suspect there's little benefit to a lame duck coach getting on lackadaisical and/or ineffective play the next day on tape. Sure, it would be great if Mike Woodson held Josh Smith accountable for maximizing his talents and minimizing his weaknesses but if that was in the cards, Smith would have attempted 7 three-pointers and received the number of touches he did in the post this season back in 2006 or 2007. Mike Woodson's co-signed this behavior for a long time.

Smith admits nothing:

"I was definitely into it mentally. I always speak my peace with the referees. That doesn’t get me out of my game at all. That just makes me play harder to make them call calls.

I am too ahead of the game in my career now where I [would] let little minor things affect me. I think I played a good game yesterday."

I might have asked where winning basketball games enters into this particular display of petulant machismo, but I'm a smart ass. Cunningham's commentary (just the Josh Smith Game 2 facts: 5 turnovers, 6 jump shots) is probably a better exemplar.

Last word goes to the coach:

"You just teach from the tapes and you hope like hell that they learn from it and when they get in that situation again they get their [butts] back on defense. Because we were terrible in transition defense. We gave up at least 12, 14 points because we didn’t get back and get matched."

You hope because there will be no consequences if they don't. You hope because you know they haven't gotten any part of their anatomy back on defense all season. Not that most of them could do anything on the that end of the court anyway.

SI.com: Mannix: Bibby Holds Key To Hawks' Success

Well, it's not the sort of thing you're going to read in the Hawks' blogosphere, neither the general sentiment nor extended quotes from Jason Collins:

[Joe] Johnson calls Bibby his best backcourt mate not named two-time MVP Steve Nash, and Jason Collins compares Bibby's on-court leadership to Dallas All-Star Jason Kidd.

"When [Bibby's] out, we notice the difference," said Collins. "He gets the team organized, whether it's running plays, running sets, making sure the ball moves. Sometimes the ball can stick and our motion isn't good. He has that intensity when the game is on the line when something needs to be said. He's not afraid to speak his mind and hold teammates accountable."

Joe Johnson Out, Mike Bibby Questionable For Tomorrow's Game

Is the injury bug biting the Hawks for the first time this season or does a trip to New Jersey offer a good opportunity to exercise discretion? Michael Cunningham reports:

Joe Johnson (sore Achilles’) is not on the Hawks’ team flight. He’s been ruled out for New Jersey tomorrow and probably is out for Thursday at Toronto, too. Mike Bibby (back) made the flight but is questionable for New Jersey.

The last time Joe Johnson missed meaningful* games through injury, Marvin Williams stepped in and produced like a viable first option against two bad teams on the road. Williams will have another opportunity to step up tomorrow night (and possibly Wednesday) but still figures to be the fourth option behind Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Jamal Crawford.

*He also sat out the final game of last season.

More tantalizing is the prospect of extended minutes in a fairly controlled setting for Jeff Teague. The combined impression given by drafting Teague and signing Bibby to a three-year contract was that as Teague's career gained momentum in his second and third seasons, Bibby's role would be reduced. An early glimpse of the changing of the guard might be at hand.

Teague's play (as well as the impact of Johnson's absence), be it good, bad, or indifferent, probably won't have an impact on Mike Woodson's rotation the rest of this season but it does provide something of a blogger's dream deep in the dog days of the NBA season.

Gameday Links: March 3rd

The debate (to date) between Peachtree Hoops and HawStr8Talk about starting Jeff Teague rather than Mike Bibby:

1. HawkStr8Talk
2. Peachtree Hoops response
3. Response to the response
4. Closing remarks at Peachtree Hoops
5. HawksStr8Talk's "Final Defense"

Three articles from Basketball Prospectus:

• Kevin Pelton on Jamal Crawford's approaching playoff debut
• Pelton compares the teams with cap room to sign a max player (or players) this summer
• Bradford Doolittle was at the game in Chicago Monday night and has five thoughts about it

A Brief Word

Mike Bibby is day-to-day.

I'm hip-deep in research regarding 11-2 starts and 11-2 streaks. Expect a post on that tomorrow. Something else to watch for tomorrow, related to the previous sentence: the Dallas Mavericks have had at least one 11-2 stretch each of the last eight seasons. They currently have won 10 of 12 and host Golden State Tuesday night which appears an excellent opportunity to make it nine seasons in a row.

Season-Long Theme: Backcourt Defense

Previously: Rebounding, Josh Smith's Shot Selection, Three-Point Shooting, Jeff Teague's Playing Time

I looked at the Hawks' backcourt defense after the opening night win over Indiana. The parameters of this on-going survey have changed a bit. On opening night, Joe Johnson played at the 3 for just three defensive possessions. In the six subsequent games, he's played the 3 for 142 defensive possessions, thus, the three-guard lineups get their own chart in this edition. Also, Maurice Evans has played 14 defensive possessions at shooting guard (all of them alongside Jamal Crawford) so that tandem gets its own row on the chart. I'm not including Evans in the individual chart as his time at the 2-guard constitutes just 6% of his total defensive possessions played.

all data from BasketballValue.com

First, the two-guard lineups...

Backcourt	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Crawford/Evans	14	10	0.714
Teague/Crawford	123	125	1.016
Bibby/Johnson	229	235	1.026
Bibby/Crawford	33	35	1.061
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Crawford/Johnson	107	136	1.271
Teague/Johnson	12	21	1.75

It's interesting (though I'm not willing to draw any conclusions about it at this time) that Teague and Crawford have been fine while playing alongside each other but when either one plays alongside Joe Johnson (in a two guard lineup) those tandems have been terrible.

As the number of possessions under consideration grows, I'll examine whether the various backcourt combinations are getting unequal court time alongside the better or the worse post defenders.

Individual defensive ratings for post defenders, year-to-date...

Player	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Horford	452	468	1.035
Josh Smith	435	467	1.074
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Joe Smith	132	153	1.159
Pachulia	199	245	1.231

An examination of Marvin Williams' offensive and defensive efficiencies at the 3 and 4 is coming in the next post

Now, the three-guard lineups...

Backcourt	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Teague/Crawford/Johnson	31	31	1.000
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Bibby/Crawford/Johnson	114	123	1.079

The best, offensively, of Atlanta's frequently used lineups has been Bibby/Crawford/Johnson/Josh Smith/Horford which has scored 99 points in 70 offensive possessions (offensive efficiency: 1.414).

Finally, the on-court defensive efficiencies for the Hawks' guards...

Player	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Bibby	376	393	1.045
Teague	166	176	1.060
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Crawford	422	459	1.088
Johnson	493	545	1.105

Season-Long Theme: Backcourt Defense

This may or may not be a regular* feature, but with little news prior to tonight's game I thought I'd take a moment and look at one game's worth of evidence regarding one of my areas of concern: backcourt defense.

Pacers @ Hawks, 10.28.09

First, the two-man backcourts...

Backcourt	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Bibby/Johnson	63	57	0.905
TEAM	101	109	1.079
Teague/Crawford	19	22	1.158
Crawford/Johnson	8	11	1.375
Teague/Johnson	8	16	2.000

As for three-man backcourts, the Hawks played Joe Johnson at small forward for just three defensive possessions. Atlanta allowed 3 points on 2 possessions with the Teague/Crawford/Johnson backcourt on the floor and 0 points on 1 possession with the Bibby/Crawford/Johnson backcourt on the floor.

There aren't, of course, many definitive conclusions to draw from such a small sample size. The Bibby/Johnson backcourt allowed the fewest points but also got to play the most against Indiana's TJ Ford/Brandon Rush backcourt. How much credit for Indiana's starting backcourt's offensive struggles should go to Bibby and Johnson and how much blame should be assigned to the Pacers is, as far as I'm concerned, an open question but at least now we know what happened.

Here's a table of the on-court defensive efficiencies for each player mentioned in this post:

Player	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Bibby	64	57	0.891
Johnson	82	87	1.061
TEAM	101	109	1.079
Crawford	30	36	1.200
Teague	29	41	1.414

Lest anyone get too concerned about Jeff Teague's defense, the Hawks scored 33 points during the 27 offensive possessions (Off Eff: 1.222) for which he was on the floor. For the game, the Hawks scored 1.188 points per possession.

*Regular in the sense of bi-weekly, monthly, etc. It will almost certainly not be a regular feature after each game.

Nuggets From John Hollinger's Player Comments

Atlanta Hawks (Insider)

Mike Bibby:

Look for Bibby to see a reduction in minutes to about 30 or so per game as Atlanta plays more often with Crawford or Teague at the point. Don't be surprised if Bibby's 2-point shooting percentage slips back a bit from last season's heights. That said, his off season in 2007-08 now looks like an outlier, and on a per-minute basis he should come close to matching last season's output.

Jason Collins:

Though he's slipped form his peak years in New Jersey, he still frustrates opposing post players with his size, textbook positioning and knack for drawing charges. He's a good help defender, too, and though he doesn't block shots he protects the basket with his size and positioning. His vertical leap is measured in angstroms, however, and his lack of ups makes him both an awful rebounder and an absolutely horrendous finisher.

Jamal Crawford:

Crawford is as disinterested a defender as there is in basketball. He makes token efforts to get through screens and challenge shots, and he routinely jogs back in transition. He has the length and quickness to be quite good and can hold his own in isolations for that reason, but his idea of help defense is catching the inbound pass after the ball goes through the basket.

Al Horford:

His lack of offensive creativity and shooting ability lowers his ceiling, but even if he doesn't improve one iota from this day forward, his solid defense and rebounding make him a valuable piece. Look for him to average around 13 and 10 with a shooting percentage in the low 50s, with little potential for surprise in either direction.

Joe Johnson:

Although he made his third straight All-Star team, Johnson isn't producing points as efficiently as he once did. He shot 43.7 percent to follow 2007-08's 43.2 percent, and his true shooting percentage slipped below the league average for his position. Once again, midrange jumpers proved his undoing. Johnson's shot mix has been almost exactly the same his last four seasons, but in his first two seasons in Atlanta, he made 42.2 percent of his long J's; the past two seasons, he's at 36.8 percent. Multiply that over 300 shots a season and it makes a big difference.

Zaza Pachulia:

Defensively, Pachulia gets by with brawn rather than speed. He's a poor leaper and doesn't defend the rim -- only three centers blocked shots less often. He has reasonably good feet, however, and has become a good pick-and-roll defender. Additionally, his physicality helps keep opposing post players away from the rim.

Joe Smith:

Smith fell off the radar with his trade to Oklahoma City, and so did his offense. He lost more than four points off his 40-minute scoring average despite playing much of the season for a team desperate for more scoring. His usage rate slipped by nearly a third, one of the biggest one-season drops you'll ever see, as he became a much-less-adventurous shooter. This benefited his turnover rate, which ranked third among power forwards, but it didn't improve his percentages any. Smith landed only 37.6 percent of his long 2s, and his free-throw rate plummeted to just one foul shot for every four field-goal attempts.

The net result was a three-point drop in PER that makes his 2007-08 season seem like an outlier. While he gave Cleveland some strong minutes early in the playoffs after his late-season liberation from the Thunder, he was an afterthought in the conference finals, where his inability to match up defensively against Orlando's frontcourt rendered him unplayable.

Marvin Williams:

Williams shifted from taking 436 long 2s in 2007-08 to just 115 last season, which translates into nearly three-quarters of his long 2s vanishing overnight.

Instead, he pursued higher-value shots, both farther and closer. He tried nearly three 3-pointers a game last season and made a respectable 35.5 percent, while taking more than half his 2-point shots in the immediate basket area. Williams maintained his high free-throw rate, ranking seventh among small forwards in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and shot a solid 80.6 percent at the stripe. The net result was a jump to 56.9 in true shooting percentage.

Williams also did yeoman's work on the boards, ranking ninth among small forwards in rebound rate, and established himself as the team's defensive stopper on the perimeter.

ESPN.com (Insider): Offseason Buzz

John Hollinger and Ric Bucher look at the Hawks in the 28th installment of the Offseason Buzz series. Hollinger pegs breakout candidate Josh Smith as Trending up* and writes:

Smith is only 23 years old, and while he hasn't figured things out as quickly as Hawks fans might have hoped, it's easy to forget the considerable progress he's made. Atlanta's addition of more perimeter players may help him focus on sticking to his knitting in the paint, and it would help him further if the Hawks' play calls gave him something to do besides stand 20 feet from the rim waiting for a kickout.

Ric Bucher writes about the other Smith, Joe:

The Hawks' talent, envied around the league, is undercut by immaturity and sometimes an appalling lack of discipline. Hence the contractual vote of no confidence for Woodson; the overwhelming sense is that the Hawks listen to Woodson only when it suits them.

...

Does ol' Joe have enough game left for Josh Smith to heed any cautionary tale he might offer? Will the older Smith even offer it? He spurned Cleveland to sign with Atlanta because the Cavs shelved him come playoff time. At this point in his career, he doesn't want to sit on the bench, even if it affords a better chance of getting a ring. He'd rather make an impact with a playoff team trying to reach that championship level. There's no bigger contribution he could make than convincing the young Hawks that as early in their careers as it might seem, the clock moves fast, and sometimes early opportunities to make a mark are the only ones a player gets.

Emphasis mine and not because I have a problem with Joe Smith or any other player wanting to play but rather because I already worry that Mike Woodson won't recognize that, at this point in Joe Smith's career, he deserves to be the fourth** big man in the rotation and should never get a minute that could reasonably go to Josh Smith, Al Horford, or Zaza Pachulia. Now the specter appears of a disgruntled Joe Smith rather than a positive veteran influence Joe Smith if Woodson relegates him to an appropriate role in the rotation.

*Mike Bibby is pegged as Trending down but not disastrously so.

**At best, he says, thinking optimistically about Othello Hunter and Courtney Sims.

In lieu of content...interactivity

The Hawks plan to make re-signing Mike Bibby and Zaza Pachulia official this afternoon. No such official announcement is planned for Marvin Williams. Yet.

The NBA blogosphere is atwitter* abuzz about the summer league. Hawks fans don't have the pleasure of investing themselves fully in the proceedings** but that doesn't mean there aren't events of interest.

For example:

• David Thorpe's livetweeting
• Yesterday's New Orleans/San Antonio game: DeJuan Blair put up 13 (on 7 shots) and 10 in 22 minutes and Darren Collison had 19 (on 13 shots), 6 (against 3 turnovers), and 5 in 34 minutes.

Please share any links*** or thoughts of interest in the comments.

*Up, running, and logoed: The True Hoop Network Twitter feed.

**Not entirely unlike the 2003-04 through 2005-06 regular seasons.

***In the interests of fairness, a compendium of Celtics bloggers' attempts to describe how slow Nick Fazekas is would not be unwarranted.

Mike Woodson Is On To Something

At Hardwood Paroxysm, Jon Nichols looks at how the shooting ability of point guards affect a team's offensive efficiency (click through for graph and full analysis):

Although they all generally have the same duty (run the offense!), different point guards in the NBA possess a variety of skills. Whether they are big or small, quick or fast, or aggressive or passive, they come in all shapes and sizes...Is the ability to shoot three-pointers well a key skill for point guards?

The short answer is yes.

I would guess that better shooter = more efficient offense holds true across all positions. I suspect the next step is to study whether the difference of affect for point guards is appreciably different than that for players at other positions.

Mike Woodson and Josh Smith on Re-Signing Mike Bibby

Woodson:

"All I can tell you is to look at our team before he came here and then look at our team after we had him. This guy changed our team. His teammates love playing with him, and he’s great for me, too. He made a huge difference for me from a coaching standpoint. I can’t overstate his importance to what we’re doing here."

Smith:

"Mike was the main difference for us. We had some good guys, some vets and young guys over the years, that came in and held it down for us at point guard, but things changed for the better when Mike Bibby showed up. And nobody can argue that."

AJC.com: Bradley: The biggest mission accomplished

Mark Bradley:

Mike Bibby was the key to this offseason. If he re-signed, the Hawks would be OK. He’s going to re-sign, and that means they’ll be more than OK. They’ll be really good.

Bibby was always going to be the toughest case. He made $15 million last season, and he has been a big name since he was a freshman at Arizona. He’s not the player he was in college or at Sacramento, but he’s ideal for what the Hawks do, which is play off Joe Johnson.

Bibby also represents the line of demarcation for the Hawks. Without him they were rudderless. With him they became a real team. To have gone so long without a point guard and to lose him now would have been a blow. But they kept him. They kept him and they added Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague, and no matter what else happens this summer must already be deemed a success.