Great Trade. Who'd We Get?

So ends an era. One wherein terrible management turned a good player into a profound organizational handicap. Michael Cunningham reports:

The Hawks and Nets have agreed to terms on a trade that will send All-Star guard Joe Johnson to Brooklyn for expiring contracts and a first-round pick, according to a person with knowledge of the deal.

Let's hear it for Danny Ferry, who performed a miracle. And let's hear it for Billy King, who saw the post-prime years of (presently) an above average score and passer who doesn't rebound, whose defense can best be described as "won't kill you if you put him on the other team's second-most dangerous wing" and thought to himself, "That's worth $90 million and a first-round draft pick."

The cost of the Joe Johnson era was only, it turned out, $105 million, one first-round pick, and one league average player. Danny Ferry turned a potential disaster into something that didn't work out as planned.

The Hawks have moved on. This trade doesn't improve them in the short-term, it only makes improvement possible in the future. Ferry will have to make several good decisions (and have them work) to get the Hawks to win two playoff series in a season for the first time since they moved to Atlanta.

Tonight, though raise a glass to Ferry, to Joe Johnson, to Billy King, and to the future.

Once More, With Feeling: Reviewing Joe Johnson's Season

Previously: Josh Smith, Larry Drew, Rick Sund

The second season of Joe Johnson's second, more ridiculous contract with the Atlanta Hawks demonstrated some practical understanding of his strengths and limitations. Up to a point, it was as good a season as could reasonably expected from Johnson at this stage of his career. That point was the playoffs.

During the regular season, Johnson, presumably recognizing his increasing inability to create high-percentage shots for himself or for teammates, demonstrated a greater willingness to finish rather than start possessions and he finished possessions from behind the three-point line more often (per minute and as a percentage of his field goal attempts) than in any previous season in Atlanta. The result of his slightly smaller role in the offense: significantly more efficient scoring at the cost of some assists. A fair trade.

With Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford replaced in the rotation by Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich, Johnson was no longer burdened with futile defensive assignments. Johnson took on a role more suited to his lack of athleticism and general defensive passivity. He stopped fouling almost completely (committing a little more than one personal foul every 36 minutes and committing more than three personal fouls in a game on three occasions, one of them being the triple overtime loss to Miami) and let his already poor defensive rebounding rate shrink to 9.2%. Neither of these prevented the Hawks from improving significantly defensively, suggesting that reducing Johnson's defensive role was a net positive. He even had a (relative) shot blocking explosion, rejecting 13 shots in 2127 minutes after blocking just 12 shots in more than 5400 minutes during the previous two seasons combined.

Despite the positive results, all this sensibility regarding Joe Johnson disappeared in the playoffs. Injuries didn't help matters but, even at less than 100%, Josh Smith and Al Horford clearly looked superior, outplaying the overextended Johnson in the playoffs. That's old news. In a new development, Jeff Teague joined them in outshining Johnson.

Johnson repeatedly failed to create good shots for himself or his teammates while struggling to chase Paul Pierce around screens for much of the series. Yet it was Johnson, dribbling nowhere good against a set defense to which the Hawks turned again and again until elimination. It was the worst of Johnson's five mediocre-to-poor playoff performances as a Hawk.

The series also re-raised the question of whether the limitations Johnson's contract has put on the team from a player personnel standpoint will continue to carryover onto the court. There are now three younger teammates (Smith, Horford, and Teague) capable of making Johnson a more effective player the more they are on the court, the more they have the ball in their hands. The Hawks are overpaying Joe Johnson to be an above average player. The overpayments* will continue after Johnson has ceased to be an above average player. The team must get maximum value out of him while there remains value to be had.

*Since Rashard Lewis was traded again this week, a word regarding untradeable contracts: untradeable contracts become tradeable once another team is in possessions of a contract (or contracts) as large, but longer than the one you want to get out from under. Joe Johnson's contract has four years to run and more than $89 million due. Also, unlike Lewis, Johnson's contract is fully guaranteed.

Hawks Go Big For Their First Last Chance

Finally. Not finally in the "What took you so long?" sense, rather finally in the "It took a long time for this to be possible" sense. With Al Horford missing three games, Josh Smith missing one game, Zaza Pachulia missing four games (and counting), Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady giving Larry Drew little reason for extended minutes, the Hawks haven't had anything close to a full complement of frontcourt players, forcing Joe Johnson into an unflattering matchup with Paul Pierce for much of the series.

Combine the short-handed squad with Larry Drew's unwillingness to ride his best healthy players and an inability to figure out a point guard rotation that doesn't include Jannero Pargo and you've largely explained the 3-1 deficit.

On the evidence of Sunday night's game, neither Josh Smith nor Al Horford are near 100%. Marvin Williams has been thoroughly befuddled when tasked to guard Paul Pierce. The Hawks have yet to score 85 points in a game in the series. Still, the Hawks (two-point favorites tonight, mind you) have a very real opportunity to make a business trip to Boston before the week ends.

Smith and Horford don't have to be 100% to be far more productive than the alternatives and if Williams could manage to be only as ineffective as Joe Johnson in defending Paul Pierce, then the Hawks might be able to take advantage of Johnson posting up Avery Bradley or Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen, might force Doc Rivers to use the deeper recesses of his bench. Kirk Hinrich doesn't have much left but Jannero Pargo never had much to begin with.

The most shocking thing about Sunday night's debacle was not that the Hawks lost by 22 points but that the Celtics scored 90 points in three quarters. That's highly unlikely to happen again.

Predicting the Hawks is a fool's errand. Doubly so in the playoffs. Marvin Williams might plumb previously unexplored depths of playoff incompetence. Smith and Horford may be physically incapable of outplaying Kevin Garnett. Joe Johnson might post up a smaller Celtics defender only to retreat dribble in order to take the shot Boston wants him to take in the first place.

Even a victory tonight might just postpone playoff elimination until two or four days hence with some soon-to-be unfortunate self-aggrandizing post-game quotes to boot. But victories are good. No amount of frustration should make a team's failure the more attractive option.

Wherein Joe Johnson and I Are Largely in Agreement

Chris Vivlamore reports on Joe Johnson's assessment of Game 4:

A day later, Joe Johnson was at loss for words about the Hawks’ embarrassing Game 4 loss to the Celtics that has the team on the brink of playoff elimination.

His one-word answer to a question on his number of shot attempts spoke volumes.

Johnson took just eight shots in Sunday’s 101-79 loss to the Celtics, who are up 3-1 in the best-of-seven series heading into Game 5 Tuesday at Philips Arena.

“I don’t think they are doing anything different defensively on me,” Johnson said. “I think it’s just, basically, getting an opportunity to touch the ball. That’s it.”

When asked if he was not happy with his touches, Johnson answered with a simple, but emphatic, “No.”

I didn't think the Celtics did anything different defensively on Joe Johnson, either. Nor am I happy with his touches.

Joe Johnson's touches, a word picture by Bret LaGree

Remain stationary
Receive the ball
(beat)
Dribble laterally to or away from the basket
(second Boston defender arrives)
Take contested jump shot or pass to teammate Boston purposely leaves open

I mean, come on. Based on his playoff performances as a Hawk, Joe Johnson would be expected to score 14 whole points in 31 minutes of action, not a mere 9.

Joe Johnson wants touches so badly he's resorting to getting his fix on the defensive end, touching, lingering even, on almost every screen a Celtic sets to free Paul Pierce.

Only 4 years and $89 million to go.

A Thought Exercise

Said exercise asking:

For how long would Joe Johnson need to be an ineffective offensive player in the playoffs for the Hawks to stop forcing the ball to him even when at least one other effective option is available?

One possible answer is "more than 44 games over five years."

In the regular season, Joe Johnson is no franchise player but he's a good offensive player. In the playoffs, he is neither:

Joe Johnson 2007-12	2PTFG%	3PTFG%	FT%	Pts/36	A/36	TO/36
Regular season	47.7	36.1	82.6	19.3	4.8	2.1
Playoffs	42.9	34.3	77.3	16.4	3.5	2.3

Joe Johnson 2007-12	Usage Rate	PER	WS/48
Regular season	26	17.9	.115
Playoffs	25.6	14.5	.031

all numbers courtesy Basketball-Reference.com

This is not strictly a Joe Johnson not making positive plays issue. This is also an asking Joe Johnson to do things he's simply not capable of doing issue and a building a basketball team around Joe Johnson as if he were something he's not issue.

The Hawks are 18-26 in the playoffs over the last five seasons. Often, the Hawks have been taken apart by better teams. But the Hawks are just 9-8 in the playoffs against the teams with worse regular season records they've faced: the 2008-09 Milwaukee Bucks, the 2009-10 Miami Heat, this year's Celtics team. In the playoffs, the Hawks don't beat the teams they're supposed to beat with anywhere near the regularity or ease with which they get beat by the teams who are supposed to beat them.

This is a not learning from your mistakes issue.

Oh, Yes, It's Been Bad

The drop-off from Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Jeff Teague to the rest of the healthy Hawks has been noticeable. BasketballValue helps make that drop-off measurable. Here's the on/off numbers (per 100 possessions) for the trio through two games against the Celtics:

Player	On Court	Off Court
Smith	+14.2	-59.7
Johnson	+13.2	-50.3
Teague	+7.8	-22.5

For some reason (rest for games that aren't guaranteed to take place?) Drew has seen fit to use more than 10 of the series' 96 minutes to see what would happen if none of Smith, Johnson, or Teague were on the floor. I ask anyone under the age of 18 or with a delicate constitution to stop reading immediately. Smith, Johnson, and Teague have joined Drew on the sideline for 17 possessions of this series during which the Hawks have been outscored 19-7.

The makeshift starting lineup? +20 over 71 offensive and 68 defensive possessions.

Swap in Marvin Williams for Jason Collins? The Hawks are still +1 over 12 offensive and 15 defensive possessions.

Remove all your above average players from the floor at once? Disaster, not so surprisingly, strikes.

At this point, Larry Drew might run out of good players to rest, making a lesson learned practically impossible in the short term. Which makes the choice to handcuff himself with what turn out to be most talented and complete roster he had at his disposal in the playoffs so disappointing.

Doc Rivers has not yet rested Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett simultaneously in this series.

AJC.com: Cunningham: Joe Johnson’s D has been strong, too

Michael Cunningham crunches the numbers on Joe Johnson's defense so far this season:

According to Synergy, Johnson has allowed just .71 points per possession, ranked No. 42 among all players. (Synergy had him allowing .93 points per possession in 2010-11 and .89 in 2009-10). This season Joe has been very good when defending in isolation (.56 ppp allowed, ranked 13th), against screen-roll ball-handlers (.69 ppp, ranked 33rd) and chasing his man off screens (.69 ppp, ranked seventh). Joe’s only defensive weakness this season, according to Synergy, has been defending spot-ups: .94 ppp, ranked 113th.

Opponent PER tells the same story. According to 82games.com, Johnson’s foes at shooting guard have posted a paltry 8.6 PER and small forwards have managed just a 12.6 PER. (The opponent PER is ugly when Joe has been at point guard but that has only been a couple minutes, according to 82games.) Last season Joe’s opponent PER was 11.6 at shooting guard and 12.9 at small forward; in 2009-10, those numbers were 15.3 and 14.4, respectively.

Joe’s on-court, off-court numbers at basketballvalue.com also are positive. The Hawks have allowed 6.24 fewer points per 100 possessions with Joe on the court. And it doesn’t appear as if his strong numbers here depend on having Al and Josh Smith behind him: Joe has been part of strong defensive units that featured Zaza Pachulia or Jason Collins at center and even one lineup with Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.

A healthy elbow has returned normal Joe Johnson service to the offensive end. Reasonable defensive assignments for Johnson, after years of being asked to chase around far quicker players, have also helped the Hawks survive the absence of Al Horford, thus far. Obviously, Johnson deserves his share of credit for his generally effective defensive play but this provides us another moment to be thankful for Jeff Teague receiving regular playing time.

ESPN.com: Stein: What will Magic want for Dwight?

Marc Stein reports on trade discussions between the Hawks and Magic regarding Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith:

Sources told ESPN.com that the aforementioned Hawks, meanwhile, engaged Orlando in trade talks for Howard earlier this month with an offer believed to be headlined by $124 million guard Joe Johnson and swingman Josh Smith. You have to figure that the Magic, though, would insist on Al Horford if such discussions ever got serious.

The Hawks are not on Howard's short list of preferred trade destinations alongside the Nets, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks, even though Atlanta is his hometown. That's presumably because Howard wants no part of Atlanta's perpetually unsettled ownership situation. The Hawks nonetheless took the risk of pursuing Howard anyway and, according to sources, felt like they were making some semblance of progress before the Magic shut down talks.

Otis Smith just traded Brandon Bass for Glen Davis so I'm not quite willing to figure that he would insist on Al Horford. Especially considering this paragraph from Stein's report:

Sources familiar with Orlando's thinking say that a picture of what the Magic will ultimately expect in return for their anchor has indeed begun to emerge, telling ESPN.com this week that Orlando would not hold out for youth and draft picks as the league-owned New Orleans Hornets were ordered to do in the Chris Paul sweepstakes. The Magic, sources say, would instead prefer to bring back multiple established veterans who can keep the team competitive.

This may be an instance where losing a franchise player in free agency and getting nothing in return benefits a franchise in the long term.

Amnesty Options for the Atlanta Hawks

Assuming the new CBA gets ratified by both players and owners, it will contain the following amnesty provision:

• Each team permitted to waive 1 player prior to any season of the CBA (only for contracts in place at the inception of the CBA) and have 100% of the player’s salary removed from team salary for Cap and Tax purposes.
• Salary of amnestied players included for purposes of calculating players’ agreed-upon share of BRI.
• A modified waiver process will be utilized for players waived pursuant to the Amnesty rule, under which teams with Room under the Cap can submit competing offers to assume some but not all of the player’s remaining contract. If a player’s contract is claimed in this manner, the remaining portion of the player’s salary will continue to be paid by the team that waived him.

The Hawks are in a pretty terrible position with regard to the salary cap: about $7 million over the cap (counting neither the unguaranteed deals to Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle nor cap holds for the empty roster spaces) despite having just seven players under contract for the 2011-12 season and only $4 million scheduled to come off the books (and some guaranteed money to be added should the team keep its first round draft pick) after the season. The Hawks are both unlikely to pay the luxury tax and unlikely to get under the salary cap by any significant amount for either the 2011-12 or 2012-13 seasons.

What follows may be an academic exercise. The current ownership group chose to keep Randolph Morris on the roster to play 124 minutes in 2009-10 rather than pay him the $855,189 he was guaranteed and either use his roster spot on someone potentially useful or sign an additional player who might have been more productive. Admittedly, this history creates plausibility problems for the options discussed below, wherein ASG would choose to risk paying 10 times as much as Morris was due in 2009-10 for a far more useful professional basketball player not to play for the Hawks.

So, disclaiming the very real possibility that the Hawks will never use the amnesty provision of the new, tentatively agreed-upon CBA, the team has three potential amnesty options:

1) Kirk Hinrich -- Using the amnesty provision on Hinrich would be the cheapest option as his pro-rated 2011-12 salary will be around $6.5 million. Presumably, using the provision on Hinrich would be a short-term move inspired by a desire to use the MLE*, the Bi-Annual Exception, or just fill out the back end of the roster with veterans rather than the likes of Pape Sy, Keith Benson, Magnum Rolle, or their inexperienced (and cheaper) ilk. I suspect the Hawks are more likely to trade Hinrich than use the amnesty provision on him.

*Choosing to amnesty Hinrich in order to use the MLE to re-sign Jamal Crawford is probably the worst of all potential choices.

2) Marvin Williams -- If the Hawks amnesty Williams before this season starts, they'll still owe him $25 million and would be under the salary cap, but by less than $1 million and with seven roster to spots to fill. If the Hawks amnesty Williams before next season, they'd owe him just under $17 million and would be below $52 million in salary owed (not counting a 2012 first round pick's guaranteed contract) to the five remaining players under contract.

As the Hawks don't gain much flexibility by just using the amnesty provision on Williams before this season begins (though the combination of amnestying Williams and trading Hinrich might have interesting consequences), the number and type of players other teams amnesty will likely impact the Hawks' decision. If a bunch of teams use the amnesty provision immediately, then it's less likely Williams would draw sufficient interest under the third part of the amnesty provision wherein another team currently under the cap would defray some of the money Atlanta owes him. However, that might mean that Williams would draw greater interest as an amnestied free agent next summer when teams had fewer options from which to choose.

The reverse is not necessarily true. Even if the majority of teams hold on to their amnesty provision, Williams' market value is at an all-time low right now so the Hawks might not benefit from a thin market of amnestied players in December.

3) Joe Johnson -- If things go south (or even stagnate) for the Hawks over the course of this season and the next, 2013 could hold massive rebuilding potential for the team. Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Jeff Teague (if the Hawks make a qualifying offer for him) are the only players currently under contract beyond the end of the 2012-13 season.

If rebuilding becomes a reality, the Hawks would also figure to have their 2012 and 2013 first round picks under contract, plus the haul from a Josh Smith trade (as it's highly unlikely the Hawks will just let Smith leave via free agency). In such a scenario, the Hawks might have enough players on team-friendly contracts that it would make sense both to pay Joe Johnson the remaining $69 million in order to get that cap space back and pursue free agents in 2013 and 2014.

Because of that third part of the amnesty provision, there is a chance that it would make sense for a team under the salary cap to assume some of Joe Johnson's contract and defray the cost to the Hawks of using the amnesty provision on Johnson. Again, it's not that Joe Johnson is a worthless basketball player, it's just that he's not going to be worth $20+ million dollars a year for his age 32-34 seasons.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Marginal Value of Assists

There's no basketball but John Hollinger, who might serve as a humbling example to others, hasn't let that stop him from writing his annual player comments (Insider). Because of the lockout, the fine editors of the NBA section at ESPN.com are doling Hollinger's player comments out one team at a time. The Mavericks and Heat are the only two teams revealed thus far, so it might be a couple weeks until we get a full set of comments about the Atlanta Hawks but, within the LeBron James comment, we learn that, among players with at least 300 assists last season, Joe Johnson's assists provided the lowest average marginal value. The league average assist during the 2010-11 season was worth two-thirds of point. The average Joe Johnson assist was worth .572 points.

The methodology:

Based on shooting percentages at each distance, I calculated that the marginal value of an average dunk/layup assist is about 1.329 points in 2010-11, whereas the marginal value of an assist on a long 2 was just 0.356 points.

As always, this is surely down both to Joe Johnson's particular skills and style of play and a generally dysfunctional Atlanta Hawks offense to which we were witness last season. Atlanta Hawks in long 2-point predilection shocker!

Perhaps more time for Johnson at small forward will make a positive difference whenever we resume regular operations.

Hardwood Paroxysm: Trade Winds, Vol. 1: Atlanta Hawks

Over at Hardwood Paroxysm, Sean Highkin takes a look at the the five best and five worst trades in the history of the Hawks franchise. Either I really overrate the value of two first-round draft picks and the averageness of Boris Diaw (freed from Mike Woodson, natch) or the Hawks haven't made very many good trades. Maybe both.

Also, trading Bill Russell certainly puts not drafting Chris Paul into perspective.

2010-11 Season Review: Joe Johnson

Previously: Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

In the first season of Joe Johnson's huge contract, the Hawks didn't get the one representative Joe Johnson season that seemed likely at the time of signing. The danger is that 2010-11 season ushered out Joe Johnson's twenties and the Hawks could now be on the hook for $123 million purely for the decline phase of a player who has never been a good bet to age gracefully. The good news is that Johnson's wide-ranging decline (scoring rate, scoring efficiency, rebounding rates, steal rate, turnover rate) wouldn't look quite so bad had his three-point shooting not collapsed entirely. Because Johnson already drew little value from rebounding or making boxscore* defensive plays, declining rates in those facets aren't nearly as damaging to his contributions.

*Though Johnson increased his blocked shot total by 40% (from 5 to 7) in 2010-11 despite playing 300 fewer minutes than in 2009-10.

Because Johnson played hurt for essentially the entire season, there's little reason to believe he's all of a sudden a sub-30% three-point shooter. Especially because there was no concurrent decline in his field goal percentage on long two-point jumpers. Furthermore, his usage rate remained constant and by his (admittedly pedestrian) standards he had a good* playoffs, highlighted by his brilliant Game 1 performance in Chicago.

*and clearly his best playoff performance since 2007-08

Whether it was the Jason Collins effect or Larry Drew possessing a better perspective on reasonable defensive matchups for Johnson, the Hawks, unlike the previous two seasons, were not significantly worse defensively with Johnson on the floor. More backcourt minutes for Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich, as well as the opportunity to replace Jamal Crawford with a competent defender, could further ease Johnson's defensive responsibilities going forward though, at the team level, Johnson taking small forward minutes away from Marvin Williams figures to have a detrimental impact on defensive rebounding.

Even though there appears to be no way the new CBA could mitigate the size of the remaining five years of Johnson's contract for the Hawks, there are few players in the league (admittedly, most of them older than Johnson) who could benefit more from a shortened 2011-12 season. He's presumably poised to bounce back from beyond the arc, would have extra time to regain full health and might again be given a more reasonable brief by Larry Drew. Joe Johnson's days as the best Atlanta Hawk are most likely over and he's going to be over paid. However, neither of those realities define the quality of his play.

ESPN.com: Atlanta Hawks Season Preview

The 5-on-5 season previews turn to the Southeast Division this week. Discussion of the Hawks leads things off and, for anyone needing a 60-second summation of the Hawks with a reference to the pending change in ownership shoehorned in at the last minute, there's a video that I produced in my kitchen. Fair warning and all that.

BB-Ref.com: Who Ruled the Top Defenses in 2011?

Neil Paine looked at how players performed last season against good and bad defensive teams. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith had the seventh- and fifth-greatest decrease in effectiveness against good defenses compared to bad defenses, respectively. Whether that's because the Hawks were 20th in the league in offense or why the Hawks were 20th in the league in offense is a fair question, and one I hope to see answered in a 2011-12 season. Regardless of causation, I expect the correct answer involves lots of missed jump shots. Joe Johnson simply not making less than 30% of his three-point attempts and Josh Smith simply not shooting (say it with me) 482 shots outside of 16 feet could make a very positive difference whether the change is scheme or player motivated.

Voice on the Floor: Some Things That Need To Be Said About Joe Johnson... by Bret LaGree

I'm thrilled to back at Voice on the Floor today, humbled to appear once again alongside some truly outstanding contributors.

Full title:

Some Things That Need to Be Said About Joe Johnson, the Atlanta Hawks Organization, the Summer of 2005, and the Impact of Context on Our Perceptions of Professional Basketball Players in the 21st Century

Enjoy.

Sweet, Delicious Highlights: Hawks/Bulls 3.2.11

I've been in Boston* for about two hours. Hopefully these will help tide you over until I can more thoroughly encapsulate Pape Sy's D-League career.

*More to follow in this space and at TrueHoop over the weekend concerning the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Al Horford dunks on Luol Deng to give the Hawks their first lead of the game, or, Al Horford makes Bob Rathbun's voice break:



Marvin Williams blocks Derrick Rose's dunk attempt:



Joe Johnson defends a point guard brilliantly:

Joe Johnson, Al Horford Cast In Basketball-Themed Television Special

Your 2011 All-Star Game reserves

For Johnson, it's his fifth consecutive All-Star appearance. Horford makes his second consecutive appearance.

Josh Smith again misses out. No telling how that will affect future shot selection.

The Atlanta Hawks Have Re-Gained a Good Player

Run this query again and Joe Johnson does not appear. Johnson's season True Shooting Percentage has risen 2.4 percentage points (to 51.3%) over the last four games. It's still below the league average (54%) but hardly out of line with his career average (52.7%, including this season) especially considering his stubborn insistence on playing through serious pain.

The Atlanta Hawks Have Some Good Players

Per Basketball-Reference.com, players who qualify for the FG% title with a True Shooting Percentage below 50% and a Usage Rate of 25% or more:

Name	TS%	Usg%	Team WinPct
Brandon Jennings	49.9	26.4	.419
JJ Hickson	49.7	25	.235
Gilbert Arenas	49.7	26.4	.355
Joe Johnson	49.1	25.6	.611
Mo Williams	48.7	26.8	.235
DeMarcus Cousins	47.6	26.2	.226
Andray Blatche	47.3	25.2	.250
Tyreke Evans	44.6	26.1	.226

NOTE: I've calculated the Team Winning Percentage for Gilbert Arenas by combining the record of the Washington Wizards and the Orlando Magic for the time he's played with either team.

One obvious thing that separates the Hawks from the Cavaliers, Wizards, and Kings is the presence of just one of their players on this list. Another is that Johnson (TO%: 8.8) turns the ball over far less often than any of the other players on this list. Jennings is next best in that regard, turning the ball over on 12% of the possessions he uses. This is really how Johnson is holding on to some semblance of offensive value while playing with a bum elbow. For example, Arenas (TO%: 17.2) has turned the ball over almost twice as often as Johnson so far this season.

Rounding out the offensive picture, three players on the list (Williams, Jennings, and Arenas) have a higher assist rate than Johnson this season. All but Williams and Arenas have a higher offensive rebound rate than Johnson.

If you were to lower the Usage Rate threshold to 18%, Trevor Ariza (46.8 TS%) would join Johnson as the only other player qualified for the FG% title with a TS% under 50 who plays for a team with a winning record.

Joe Johnson Has Shot Worse Post-Surgery

Joe Johnson's 2010-11 shooting and scoring before and after elbow surgery:

Joe Johnson	Pts/100	2PTFG%	3PTFG%	eFG%	TS%
before	25.4	47.2	25.6	44.6	49.4
after	24.9	43.3	28.6	43.2	47.8

To put Johnson's combination of poor shooting and shot volume in perspective, there are four shooting guards playing 20 minutes a game and posting a lower TS% than Joe Johnson so far this season: John Salmons, Evan Turner, Corey Brewer, and Rasual Butler. There are no shooting guards playing 20 minutes a game, posting a lower TS% than Joe Johnson, and a usage rate higher than 19.9 (Salmons). Joe Johnson's usage rate is 24.2, ninth-highest among shooting guards.

To Johnson's credit, his assist rate has spiked upon his return despite his poor shoooting, and should stay high as long as the Hawks continue to feature him in the half-court offense and opponents continue to to double-team the team's least efficient scorer.

Joe Johnson	A/100
before	7.8
after	10.0

NOTE: "x/100" denotes the stat rate per 100 on court possessions