2009-10 Season Review: Joe Smith

Previously: Maurice Evans, Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, Marvin Williams, Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Mike Woodson, Rick Sund

Perhaps Joe Smith provided some behind-the-scenes value as a veteran leader but by the measurable standards his value was negligible to the team. That Smith, with his indifferent defense and quick trigger, never looked integrated into the team on the court makes me skeptical of his intangible value but, in the interests of sticking to that which is known, let it be noted that Smith didn't get even rate the 675 minutes that his incompetent predecessor, Solomon Jones, played in 2008-09. One reason was better health for Al Horford and Josh Smith. The other reason was his play.

Only Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith attempted more shots per minute than Joe Smith and only Jason Collins and Othello Hunter made a lower percentage of their field goal attempts. It's easy to see why:

Joe Smith	%FGA inside 10'	eFG%	%FGA outside 10'	eFG%
2009-10	40.9	55.7	59.1	29.4

Joe Smith attempted most of his shots* from locations he was least likely to make them and relatively few inside of 10 feet where he was, when located there, fairly effective, a fact further illustrated by his surprisingly strong offensive rebound rate (though a small sample size warning applies).

*Common surname trivia: The two Smiths combined to attempt a jump shot from beyond 16 feet every three minutes and 51 seconds they played. They combined to shoot 28.4% on those attempts. And still the Hawks had the second most efficient offense in the league.

Smith appeared to be, despite his limited minutes, a significant part of the second unit's collective defensive struggles. The Hawks allowed a team-worst 111.1 points per 100 possessions with Smith on the floor. His pick-and-roll defense, in particular, did Jeff Teague no favors in terms of the rookie impressing his head coach.

Have They Learned Anything?

As reported by Michael Cunningham...

Mike Woodson:

You could have never told me we would struggle to score points.

It's not an encouraging sign that I, in my semi-professional capacity here, might have had a better grasp on the central issue of the Hawks/Magic matchup than the head coach.

Was he unable to be told or did he choose not to listen?

May 3rd

May 3rd, again

May 4th

Media-friendly owner Michael Gearon, Jr. again reveals himself more fan than serious analyst. On Jeff Teague:

"He has extraordinary talent and is capable of producing now."

Teague's 2009-10 stats and a study of rookie point guards drafted outside the lottery. I think you'll find both the amount of Teague's playing time (on a good team) and production to be right in line with reasonable expectations.

On Joe Smith and Jason Collins:

"Guys like that are capable of contributing a lot."

They're not. They're just not. Joe Smith took 193 shots this season. 103 of those were at least 16 feet from the basket. He made 30 of those. He was also terrible defensively. Jason Collins played 4 minutes and 49 seconds of good basketball this season, and even then, only when matched up against a larger (and possibly slower) human being. His total combined points and rebounds barely eclipsed his total combined fouls and turnovers.

I don't know how much influence* Gearon has in personnel decisions but it's disconcerting to hear him sound like a below-average message board denizen in expressing absolute belief in the ability of once-useful players with recognizable names** who are clearly on the downside of their career. I bet he really likes the energy Mario West brings and thinks Garret Siler has an NBA future, too. Meanwhile, the D-League is ignored and the best player the organization's found in the second-round of the draft in the last 20 years is probably Chris Crawford.

*He presumably has some influence on spending.

**Maybe he really did want to sign Ilgauskas.

Hoops Addict: Joe Smith Interview

Rashad Mobley asks, Joe Smith answers:

RM: This team always seems to be playing with loose with a lot energy. What is it about this team that allows everyone to play like that night after night?

JS: Well first of all, we have a lot of guys that believe and trust in each other. They like to have fun off the court, and we take it on the court, its all business. We can fight, yell, curse and do whatever on the court, and it rarely spills over into the locker room. I’ve been on teams where that hasn’t been the case but not here. And to be a successful team, you gotta be able to do that night in and night out.

RM: Talk a little about Al Horford. He’s been more consistent this year, he made the All-Star team, and he just seems to be getting more and more confident. What have you seen since you’ve been watching him up close and what have you done to help him out?

JS: He just gets better every year man. I watched him from afar in the past, and I was impressed. He has the footwork, the drive, the right attitude and he can still improve as a ball player. And to be playing with him now, and to see how hard he works on the court, off the court, in the weight room whatever, its fun to be around him and he keeps me feeling young. Plus like I said, he’s really trying to get better as a player, and I’m trying to help him out as much as I can with the knowledge I’ve gained.

Injury and Illness Update

Ken Sugiura of the AJC reports:

Forward Marvin Williams did not practice after missing Sunday's game with an upset stomach. Forward Joe Smith, who has missed the past two games with a dislocated thumb, is unlikely to play Wednesday against Memphis. His availability for Friday's game against Utah is questionable.

Honesty, As Always, The Best Policy

Mike Woodson on Joe Smith's absence:

"We can always play Al at the 4, Marvin at the 4. If I don't feel comfortable with 'O,' I can go that route."

I count the "if" as being both honest and polite.

Joe Smith Out Friday, Questionable For Sunday

Per Ken Sugiura:

Joe Smith won’t be making the trip to Toronto. He’ll stay home for treatment, and Othello Hunter will be activated in his place. It’s possible Smith could play Sunday against New Jersey, but it would seem like that’d be an outside shot, perhaps somewhat dependent on what Hunter does against Toronto. Mike Woodson said Marvin Williams could be an option at 4 behind Al Horford if he doesn’t get what he wants from Hunter.

I suspect that, especially considering the opponent, Marvin Williams is far more likely to play minutes at the four than is Othello Hunter. Though, again considering the opponent, I should probably qualify that suspicion with some sort of garbage time proviso. Plus, Mo Evans raised his eFG% by 47 points in 23 minutes last night. He's got to want another shot at the Toronto efense.

Nuggets From John Hollinger's Player Comments

Atlanta Hawks (Insider)

Mike Bibby:

Look for Bibby to see a reduction in minutes to about 30 or so per game as Atlanta plays more often with Crawford or Teague at the point. Don't be surprised if Bibby's 2-point shooting percentage slips back a bit from last season's heights. That said, his off season in 2007-08 now looks like an outlier, and on a per-minute basis he should come close to matching last season's output.

Jason Collins:

Though he's slipped form his peak years in New Jersey, he still frustrates opposing post players with his size, textbook positioning and knack for drawing charges. He's a good help defender, too, and though he doesn't block shots he protects the basket with his size and positioning. His vertical leap is measured in angstroms, however, and his lack of ups makes him both an awful rebounder and an absolutely horrendous finisher.

Jamal Crawford:

Crawford is as disinterested a defender as there is in basketball. He makes token efforts to get through screens and challenge shots, and he routinely jogs back in transition. He has the length and quickness to be quite good and can hold his own in isolations for that reason, but his idea of help defense is catching the inbound pass after the ball goes through the basket.

Al Horford:

His lack of offensive creativity and shooting ability lowers his ceiling, but even if he doesn't improve one iota from this day forward, his solid defense and rebounding make him a valuable piece. Look for him to average around 13 and 10 with a shooting percentage in the low 50s, with little potential for surprise in either direction.

Joe Johnson:

Although he made his third straight All-Star team, Johnson isn't producing points as efficiently as he once did. He shot 43.7 percent to follow 2007-08's 43.2 percent, and his true shooting percentage slipped below the league average for his position. Once again, midrange jumpers proved his undoing. Johnson's shot mix has been almost exactly the same his last four seasons, but in his first two seasons in Atlanta, he made 42.2 percent of his long J's; the past two seasons, he's at 36.8 percent. Multiply that over 300 shots a season and it makes a big difference.

Zaza Pachulia:

Defensively, Pachulia gets by with brawn rather than speed. He's a poor leaper and doesn't defend the rim -- only three centers blocked shots less often. He has reasonably good feet, however, and has become a good pick-and-roll defender. Additionally, his physicality helps keep opposing post players away from the rim.

Joe Smith:

Smith fell off the radar with his trade to Oklahoma City, and so did his offense. He lost more than four points off his 40-minute scoring average despite playing much of the season for a team desperate for more scoring. His usage rate slipped by nearly a third, one of the biggest one-season drops you'll ever see, as he became a much-less-adventurous shooter. This benefited his turnover rate, which ranked third among power forwards, but it didn't improve his percentages any. Smith landed only 37.6 percent of his long 2s, and his free-throw rate plummeted to just one foul shot for every four field-goal attempts.

The net result was a three-point drop in PER that makes his 2007-08 season seem like an outlier. While he gave Cleveland some strong minutes early in the playoffs after his late-season liberation from the Thunder, he was an afterthought in the conference finals, where his inability to match up defensively against Orlando's frontcourt rendered him unplayable.

Marvin Williams:

Williams shifted from taking 436 long 2s in 2007-08 to just 115 last season, which translates into nearly three-quarters of his long 2s vanishing overnight.

Instead, he pursued higher-value shots, both farther and closer. He tried nearly three 3-pointers a game last season and made a respectable 35.5 percent, while taking more than half his 2-point shots in the immediate basket area. Williams maintained his high free-throw rate, ranking seventh among small forwards in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and shot a solid 80.6 percent at the stripe. The net result was a jump to 56.9 in true shooting percentage.

Williams also did yeoman's work on the boards, ranking ninth among small forwards in rebound rate, and established himself as the team's defensive stopper on the perimeter.

AJC.com: Smith: Crawford Makes a Great First Impression

Sekou Smith quotes my second favorite source*, "a visiting pro from another NBA Team":

"They’re going to be (expletive) good this year. You throw JC and Joe Smith and this kid [Jeff] Teague, and they’ve got some wrinkles now that they didn’t have last season. They were already a dangerous team and now they’re really dangerous. And knowing these fans down here and what they like, they’re going to love the style this team can play. They’re going to love JC."

*After "an anonymous scout"

Wrinkles, eh?

More like reputations.

JAMAL CRAWFORD (career) vs. FLIP MURRAY (08-09)

Name	Pts/36	FGA/36	TS%	eFG%	A/36	TO/36
Crawford	16.8	14.6	51.7	46.9	4.6	2.3
Murray	17.8	14.5	54.3	50.1	2.9	2.3

Jamal Crawford is a better basketball player than Flip Murray but Flip Murray was a better basketball player than Flip Murray last year. Said another way, Crawford is extremely likely to be a better player than Flip Murray in 2009-10. Jamal Crawford is not very likely to a better player in 2009-10 than Flip Murray was in 2008-09. In very rough terms, the Hawks figure to add an extra assist every 21 minutes at the cost of an extra missed shot every 51 minutes. Plus the difference between Murray's average defense and Crawford's abominable defense.

JOE SMITH (career) vs. ZAZA PACHULIA (career)

Name	OR%	DR%	PTS/36	TS%	BS/36
Smith	10.3%	17.6%	15.0	51.5%	1.2
Pachulia	12.1%	19.0%	13.0	53.7%	0.6

At this point in his career, Joe Smith projects to offer little improvement over Zaza Pachulia, and what improvement Smith might reasonably offer--an extra point a game, a extra blocked shot every three or four games--will come at the expense of rebounds, especially offensive rebounds, which, unless everyone again has a career season from beyond the three-point line, figure to be a more important factor in 2009-10 than they were in 2008-09 when the Hawks finished a disappointing 19th in the league in offensive rebound rate.

But even if Smith is a similar player to Pachulia* whose skills don't complement his future teammates as well as do Pachulia's, the first 675 minutes Smith plays will be as a direct replacement for Solomon Jones. That's something positive.

JOE SMITH (08-09) vs. SOLOMON JONES (08-09)

Name	OR%	DR%	PTS/36	TS%	BS/36
Smith	9.5%	18.3%	12.2	50.7%	1.3
Jones	9.1%	15.6%	10.0	65.5%	1.8

Though Jones put up superficially decent numbers in limited minutes last season, Smith figures to surpass that production while playing non-garbage time minutes and providing much, much, much better defense both before and after an opponent's shot goes up.

*And he is. Joe Smith is a backup center who plays adequate position defense. Any extra blocks he gets are simply a function of his reach compared to Pachulia's.

Rick Sund undeniably made good decisions in replacing Solomon Jones with a better player and not expecting Flip Murray to replicate his career year. Those decisions, though, do not in and of themselves make the team better so much as they increased the chances of the team not getting worse. The positive impact of the difference between Smith and Jones will be reduced every time Smith takes minutes away from Pachulia, Al Horford, or Josh Smith.

Jamal Crawford is a better passer than Flip Murray but he'll shoot just as often thus continuing to limit touches for Williams and Horford. Crawford's inadequate defense will make it more difficult for Mike Woodson to hide Mike Bibby defensively.

If the Hawks are better in 2009-10 (and I'm not convinced they won't be) it will be because Williams, Horford, and Josh Smith stay healthy and shore up the defense for 82 games, because Jeff Teague plays just well enough to allow Woodson to feel he can rest Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby with limited risk, and because Josh Smith pulls his significant and disparate talents together. Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith are nice rotation players. They are not difference makers when added to a 47-win team.

Courtney Sims Is Coming To Camp

Buried beneath Joe Smith quote catering to intagiphiles and confirmation of the coming addition of Jason Collins* Sekou Smith shared this interesting tidbit yesterday:

Second-year forward Othello Hunter has committed to attend the Hawks’ training camp, which kicks off late next month.

He’ll join a growing list of camp invitees that already includes rookie free agent Garrett Siler, Frank Robinson and Courtney Sims.

Good news about Othello Hunter. The Hawks could do worse** than keep a fifth big man who could, if called upon, rebound and defend the four without embarrassment.

Even better news about Courtney Sims. He hasn't stuck in the NBA, playing 24 minutes in five games for three teams over the last two seasons, but in 1573 minutes in the D-League he's been outstanding, averaging 22 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Inviting the reigning D-League MVP to camp demonstrates an increased organizational interest in both the D-League as a development system and in deepening the pool of potential bench players beyond veterans whose recent career (and less-recent fame) makes one hope they remain well down the depth chart and locals whose careers make no strong case for their involvement in the NBA in any sort of playing capacity.

*More on him when it's official.

**And, as it looks possible they'll end up with four centers on the roster, this may cease to be a hypothetical.

It's Official

Joe Smith signs a 1 year, $1.3 million deal.

The depth chart as of 8/26/09...

Guards
Mike Bibby
Joe Johnson
Jamal Crawford
Jeff Teague

Wings
Marvin Williams
Maurice Evans

Post Players
Josh Smith
Al Horford
Zaza Pachulia
Joe Smith
Randolph Morris

The composition of those eleven players under contract leads me to believe that Mario West and Othello Hunter have a pretty good chance of making this team along with a guard to be determined.

ESPN.com: Source: Hawks Sign Joe Smith

ESPN reports that Ric Bucher reports:

Joe Smith has agreed to a one-year deal with the Atlanta Hawks for the veteran's minimum, a source told ESPN's Ric Bucher on Friday.

As I've written before, Smith is a fine insurance policy and a plausible source of leadership, locker room presence, choose your own intangible descriptive. Practically speaking, he shouldn't, as the third center, be expected to play a lot, and, assuming that the fifth big man turns out to be Othello Hunter or someone similar, Al Horford and Marvin Williams appear set to share the power forward minutes left over after Josh Smith gets his share.