Tuesday, September 21, 2010

2010-11 Season Preview: Pape Sy

I don't know of anyone doing translations to use player stats from the French League to create projections for the NBA but John Hollinger has published translations from the Euroleague to the NBA:
Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
Rebound rate increases by 18 percent
Assist rate increases by 31 percent
Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
Overall, player efficiency rating drops by 30 percent
In his 425 minutes of playing time last season, Pape Sy scored 13.1 Pts/36, 4.3 Reb/36, 3.4 Ast/36, 3.0 TO/36, 1.6 S/36, 0.2 BS/36, 4.7 PF/36, and made 54.7% of 64 two-point attempts and 41.4% of 29 three-point attempts.

The good news there? That shooting percentage (at least when moving from a higher level of European basketball to the NBA) remains the most constant and Sy augmented his good shooting with a FT Rate of 52.7. Reinforcing that last item, in his very brief appearances at Summer League, Sy demonstrated two abilities: straight-line speed and a willingness to initiate contact.

The bad news? Most everything else. Sy was something like Maurice Evans (with more assists, and many more turnovers and personal fouls) but for the 13th-best (out of 16) team in the French League rather than the third-best team in the Eastern Conference of the NBA.

Even with Sy's encouraging efficiency when scoring, his scoring rate was so low that, were it to decline just at a rate typical for a player moving from the Euroleague to the NBA, he'd score at a rate closer to Mario West than any other member of the 2009-10 Atlanta Hawks.

Given his age (22) and inexperience, there's little reason to expect Sy to make the massive, immediate jump in ability to contribute in the NBA in 2010-11 and, given his age and inexperience, the Hawks must move quickly to recoup their investment in Sy. It's highly unlikely that Sy becomes an NBA player* by wearing suits on a tour of our nation's benches. Thus, barring a rash of injuries, Sy should be in Reno on November 20th.

*There could have been a period right there.


Jason Walker said...

One wonders if we'll be treated to a novelty on-line picture of Mario West mid-way through the season with the tagline "Miss Me Yet?"

Bret LaGree said...

That's the rub: Pape Sy, uninspiring as he is, represents progress from the Mario West Era.

What we'll miss are proven useful and available players like Pops Mensah-Bonsu or Kyle Weaver.

Aaron said...

It's the fact they paid $250K *more* for him then they would've paid for someone else equally as uninspiring that confuses me.

I'm trying not to exaggerate, but if Sy makes a top10 rotation anytime in his NBA career, this will be one of the most successful international gambles EVER.