Following Up On A Good Omen

Previously: A Good Omen

Part 2 of Neil Paine's study of how individuals fared against good and bad defenses in 2009-10 is up. Joe Johnson (14th in the league against both above- and below-average defenses) slips just to 17th against top-10 defenses and 16th against bottom-10 defenses but does not appear in the top 20 against either top-5 or bottom-5 defenses.

Al Horford is all over the leaderboards (usage rate between 18% and 23% division):

• 4th in the league against below-average defenses
• 9th in the league against top-10 defenses (over a 1500+ minute sample with a higher usage rate than his season mark)
• 4th in the league against bottom-10 defenses
• 4th in the league against bottom-5 defenses

Jamal Crawford Wants To Stay; Childress Glad To Be Gone

Chris Broussard reports that Jamal Crawford wants to sign a contract extension with the Hawks:

Jamal Crawford, the league's reigning Sixth Man of the Year, has requested a contract extension from the Atlanta Hawks, according to league sources.

The 30-year-old Crawford made his request three weeks ago, but with the Hawks focused on re-signing All-Star Joe Johnson and other free agents, talks have not progressed to the serious stage.

Given what the Hawks have proven willing to pay aging shooting guards--$19 million to Crawford for his age 29 and 30 seasons, $124 million to Joe Johnson for his age 29 through 34 seasons--who could blame him? Factor in that Crawford had a career year, played in the first post-season games of his career, and there's an impending lockout and this should come as no surprise. I don't expect any quick movement due both to organizational inertia and the impending lockout. The next collective bargaining agreement may well save the owners from themselves.

As to the first roadblock* (above) to a Jamal Crawford extension, Josh Childress spoke with Sekou Smith about why he left Atlanta:

"I don't think I ever got a formal offer. ll I wanted was a deal. I just wanted to feel like they wanted me to be a part of their team. And I never had that feeling. It was always, 'we'll deal with him when we have time.' Personally and professionally, I felt like I acquitted myself the right way. I came to work and did what was asked of me. and then when it came time to negotiate, it was like 'we'll get to him whenever we can.' At least that was the attitude that was conveyed to me."

Childress, you'll recall, was probably the third best player (at worst, the fourth-best player) on the first Hawks team to make the playoffs in a decade. Again, talent evaluation is what holds this franchise back.

That's not just an issue with the front office, either. Childress offered an implicit explanation for how he played 500 fewer minutes than the inferior Marvin Williams in 2007-08 when he explained what attracted him to the Suns:

"One of the main things that got me excited about the opportunity was speaking with [Suns] Coach [Alvin] Gentry. They truly enjoy playing like a team. He was telling me how there were plenty of games last year where the second unit would finish the game. He made it clear that whoever is playing well will play. It's not about playing favorites. It's an equal opportunity situation."

Mike Woodson loved clearly defined roles. It cost the Hawks during the 2007-08 season. It cost the Hawks every time Mario West or Joe Smith stepped on the court. It ultimately cost them a good player in Josh Childress. That all the team got back for him was a second-round pick and a traded player exception they probably can't afford to use is where the front office and ownership re-enter the picture.

*Not counting common sense.

A Good Omen

At the Basketball-Reference.com blog, Neil Paine takes a look at how individual players performed against above-average and below-average defenses last season. Paine ranks the players by Offensive SPM (Statistical Plus/Minus) and Joe Johnson was, at least ordinally, just as effective against above-average defenses as he was against below-average defenses.

According to the study, Johnson ranked 14th (between Marcus Thornton and Danny Granger) in the league in Offensive SPM against above-average defenses and ranked 14th (between Deron Williams and Danny Granger) in the league in Offensive SPM against below-average defenses.

Thus, the playoffs notwithstanding, Joe Johnson performed consistently well regardless of the quality of team defense he faced last season. There are two possible (and plausible*) positive interpretations of this information.

1. Though the sharp decline of his already below average Free Throw Rate in 2009-10 remains a concern, Johnson didn't just rack up good offensive numbers against bad defenses. Johnson's new contract is still a bad idea long-term but, on the basis of this study, there's even less reason to expect him to decline precipitously in 2010-11.
2. The discrepancy between Johnson's numbers against good defensive teams during the regular season and during the playoffs could have had as much to do with Mike Woodson as Joe Johnson. First, though Johnson's overall minutes played were down significantly in 2009-10 (helped by the 6 games he missed) he still played 38 minutes per game and may have been more worn down than the average player in the post-season. Second, it's possible the predictability of Atlanta's half-court offense made it more easily stymied when seen repeatedly over the course of a best-of-seven series. Not to mention that the Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic were the 2nd and 3rd best defenses in the league last season.

If Larry Drew can diversify Atlanta's offensive attack (either in the half-court or by emphasizing transition basketball) and limit Johnson's regular season minutes (having four shooting guards on the roster should help), then Johnson might better be able to replicate his regular season success in the playoffs.

Paine's study isn't all good news. He doesn't use defensive efficiency to separate above-average defensive teams from below-average defensive teams. Rather he adjusts defensive efficiency for "home-court effects and the strength of the opposing offense." In doing so, the Hawks drop from 13th in the league in defensive efficiency to 17th.

Putting all the team's resources in the service of re-signing Johnson hasn't allowed Rick Sund to address the team's obvious (and long-standing) defensive limitations though, again, Mike Woodson's absence could lead to some improvement in that area if the constancy of switching screens really was a key contributor to the team's defensive struggles.

*This is new work and the results should not be assumed to be predictive. I'm approaching the data with common sense and good wishes rather than analytically. We figure to learn more in Paine's upcoming posts on the subject where he will break down player performance against the extreme best and worst defenses.

A (god willing) less important negative aspect of Paine's study concerns Josh Powell. Among players with a usage rate of at least 18%, Powell had the second-worst Offensive Rating (ahead of only Daequan Cook) against above-average defenses. Among players with a usage rate of less than 18%, Powell had the sixth-worst Offensive Rating (ahead of James Singleton, Ime Udoka, Vladimir Radmanovic, DeShawn Stevenson, and Sasha Pavlovic). The takeaway: Josh Powell is a bad offensive player and good defenses are good defenses, in part, because they force guys like Josh Powell to use more possessions than do bad defenses.

ESPN.com (Insider): Thorpe: Rookie Watch

David Thorpe ranks Jordan Crawford's Summer League performance 18th among rookies:

Crawford is viewed as a pure scorer, and he showed that in Vegas. Although he didn't shoot well overall, he displayed his ability to shoot from 3 and exhibited solid court vision and feel. I also liked the fact that he looked to make plays on D. I liked him better than I expected to.

Crawford didn't shoot especially well (He missed all seven three-pointers he attempted over the last three games in Vegas.) but he was largely above the Vegas Summer League averages, which is probably what one should expect from a first round pick.

Name	2PTFG%	3PTFG%	FT%	eFG%	TS%
Crawford	48.6	30.4	85.7	47.5	56.0
League	46.6	31.6	70.2	46.8	52.1

NBA Facts & Rumors: Moore: Atlanta Hawks Offseason Review

Two excerpts from Matt Moore's review of the Atlanta Hawks' off-season activity to date:

Philosophy: "Self-delusion is all the rage this summer!"

and:

The vast number of ways in which the Johnson signing was poorly conceived is staggering. The full max, all six years? That much money? The roster had potential to really contend, but instead, the Hawks simply avoided the great collapse of losing a high usage player with low efficiency. Johnson can take over a game like few in the league. But he also simply isn't worth the money, and it's hamstrung their franchise for the future.

Grade: D+

Moore, it should be noted, is a huge Joe Johnson fan who has, previously, taken me to task for being hard on Johnson and/or the organization's insistence on treating him as a franchise player.

SBNation: Ranking All 30 NBA GMs

Mike Prada ranks Rick Sund in the top 75% of NBA general managers:

The Hawks have a good, but not great team and an ownership group that won't go over the luxury tax. They're not winning a title anytime soon, that's for sure. Yet Sund seems so committed to bringing back the same core of players that have proven they can't get it done.

I'm not even talking about the ridiculous Joe Johnson contract, which we'll get to in a second. I'm talking more about all the moves that led up to it. There's little collective rhyme or reason to the contract handed out to Mike Bibby (three years), Zaza Pachulia (four years), Marvin Williams (five years) and Jamal Crawford (a trade, mind you, but two years). The contracts by themselves make sense, but taken together, they demonstrate a lack of planning. That's four key role players making a combined $25 million per season that expire in four different years.

Let's go back to Johnson now. Yes, his contract is terrible, no doubt. But Sund really got himself stuck by not thinking ahead with his other contracts. He put himself between a rock and a hard place because he did not think to give his role players contracts that all expire around the same time. He limited his options to "sign Johnson, ride it out and maybe rebuild in five years" or "don't sign Johnson and fail to rebuild for a couple years because all of Johnson's role players are clogging up our cap flexibility." Under those circumstances, it's more understandable that Johnson got what he got.

I strongly believe that a lack of creativity and long-term planning with smaller decisions ultimately leads to a lack of creativity and long-term planning with bigger decisions. Bad process leads to bad process. Rick Sund and the Hawks are the best example of this.

Atlanta Hawks Salary Cap Update

ShamSports has updated salary information for the Atlanta Hawks. With 10 players under contract for a total of $65,847,034, the Hawks are currently $7,803,034 over the salary cap and $4,459,966 under the luxury tax line.

Assuming the Hawks fill out the three remaining roster spots with players (either veterans such as Jason Collins and Josh Powell or rookie free agents) who will cost the Hawks just the two-year veteran minimum either in terms of actual dollars or salary cap calculation, the team would be $1,896,799 under the tax line. That might leave room for in-season maneuvering while remaining below the tax line.

The ESPN trade machine has the only published number I've seen for the Traded Player Exception the Hawks got from the Josh Childress trade: $3,631,449. If anyone has evidence confirming or refuting that number, please let me know.

ESPNLA: McMenamin: Josh Powell To Leave L.A. For Hawks

Dave McMenamin reports that sources say the Hawks will maintain their two Josh minimum by signing former Laker reserve Josh Powell:

The Atlanta Hawks are close to finalizing a one-year deal with forward Josh Powell worth approximately $1.1 million, according to sources close to the situation. The deal is expected to be finalized early next week, perhaps as soon as Monday.

That would be pretty quick work by the standards of this organization.

For his part, the 28-year-old Powell is a dreadful offensive player who, despite shooting just 41.7 eFG% and 44.7 TS%, kept his usage rate at around 19% during his two seasons with the Lakers. There are two reasons Powell struggles offensively: he's a below average finisher at the rim (53.8% over 318 attempts) and 44% of his field goal attempts come at least 10 feet from the basket and generate an eFG% of 38.3.

Powell has been a good offensive rebounder (9.8 career OR%; 10.7% and 11.6% in the two seasons in which he played the most minutes) over the course of his NBA career. His work on the defensive glass (sadly and fittingly) is less encouraging as he rebounded just 13.7% of opponents' misses (league average for all players: 14.7%) last season. Marvin Williams, for example, has never posted a defensive rebounding rate that low.

The Hawks may manage to bring back Jason Collins* and find an inferior replacement for Joe Smith.

*As with Collins, the Hawks will get a rebate from the NBA should they sign Powell: $215,210 of the $1,069,509 in this case.

More from McMenamin:

[Powell] was an influential locker room presence as one of Kobe Bryant's most trusted confidants. Powell was credited by teammates for being a consummate professional as a practice player.

That professionalism that helped in practice failed to carry over into games. The Lakers were far worse with Powell on the court. Granted, that has something to do with how good Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum are but it's not like Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Zaza Pachulia are a bunch of bums.

Josh Powell	Offense		Defense
	On	Off	On	Off
2008-09	101.3	114.9	109.8	103.1
2009-10	102.6	109.8	108.4	103.1

No typos in the above table. The Lakers, who outscored opponents by 5 points per 100 possessions in 2008-09 and 8.2 points per 100 possessions in 2009-10, were outscored by 8.4 and 5.7 points per 100 possessions* with Powell on the floor in the last two seasons (over roughly 2400 possessions), respectively.

*Source: BasketballValue.com

A Narrow Defense Of Doing Nothing Right Now

First, the latest rumor...

Marc Stein reports that the Hawks are:

[T]he only team with a confirmed "live" interest in O’Neal. There are limitations to that interest.

Stein, again:

Shaq, at last report, still wants assurances of a healthy slice of playing time as well as a salary that starts above the $5.8 million mid-level exception, which can be achieved through a sign-and-trade with Cleveland. No team out there, including Atlanta, is known to be willing to pay Shaq more than $2 million for next season.

Shaq for $2 million next season makes far more sense than spending the MLE for X number of years on Shaq. Not that it's any more realistic than Joe Johnson agreeing to a 4-year, $60 million extension last Summer, but, hey, it's worth a shot. Presumably, were this highly unlikely agreement to come to pass, the Hawks would increase their collection of valuable trade chits from 0 to 1 (Zaza Pachulia) were they willing to risk using Jason Collins or similar dreck the 20-odd nights Shaq doesn't dress.

It shouldn't be a surprise that retaining Jason Collins is the sum total of reported free agent activity by the Hawks following the signing of Joe Johnson to a max contract. Even someone with a terrible record for prognostication could see it coming:

Signing Joe Johnson to a max deal will necessitate making future decisions based on finances rather than basketball...

The upshot, of course, is that the Hawks probably don't need Shaq or any other famous, aged center. And not just in the "they need a backup* for Marvin Williams, a point guard** in whom we can be confident, and a capable perimeter defender*** more" sense. The up-post Zaza Pachulia reference is likely one of the few**** you'll have noticed this Summer. Odd considering the number of centers who have been speculated about. So I offer this reminder from Zaza's season review:

[T]he Hawks [are] +5.3 per 100 possessions (Off Eff: 104.7 Def Eff: 99.4) over the last two seasons (totaling 963 offensive and 960 defensive possessions) with Horford and Pachulia playing alongside each other.

Sure it would be fun if the Hawks had the financial flexibility so as to speculate about them getting involved in the fire sales of Ramon Sessions or Brandon Bass but it's also important to keep in mind what the team has. Or, to quote from my (overly pessimistic, it turned out) preview of last season:

It’s tempting, in the transactional flurry of the off-season, to assume that if a team’s not busy getting better, it’s getting worse. When all that exists is potential, reward can overshadow risk and the act of reconstituting a 47-win team fails to capture the imagination.

Locking in the core of a 53-win team in such as way as to limit its chances of someday winning a championship isn't appealing but the 8- or 10-win player the team presumably needs to compete for a top-4 seed in the East in 2010-11 doesn't appear to be available right now. Throwing more money at non-existent roster problems for PR purposes isn't going to create many future opportunities to marshal what few resources the team currently possesses in service of real improvement.

*A job which should be easily filled on the cheap.

**Could be Jeff Teague.

***Could also be Jeff Teague.

****I blame Drew's absence.

Summing Up Summer League

Hawks v. D-League Select Boxscore

Hawks v. Timberwolves Boxscore

Player-by-player, here's what I've learned from Summer League...

Jeff Teague: No one could stay in front of him in Vegas. I think that'll be mostly true in real NBA games too though the execution of team defensive concepts will likely complicate matters for him. Given the uncertainty over what Larry Drew's motion offense will look like exactly, it's difficult to project Teague's sophomore season. It's fairly to easy to imagine him, if surrounded by shooters, being effective turning the corner on ball-screens and getting into the lane. Conversely, it's easy to imagine the shooters the Hawks employ having the ball in their hands rather than Teague. The slope of Teague's learning curve could further be influenced by how often the Hawks run which will probably have more to do with defensive rebounding than anything Teague can control. Patience is advised with regard to Teague just as much as it is with regard to Larry Drew.

Jordan Crawford: Crawford can play. Given the composition of the roster, his youth, and his degree of physical development he probably won't get the opportunity to produce much in 2010-11. So, in the short term, Crawford might be reduced to shining in garbage time therefore breaking up the occasional monotony of the 82-game schedule or diminishing concerns over a serious injury to Jamal Crawford or Joe Johnson. Looking farther ahead, if he can convince the team that he can, at the very least, be ready in 2011-12 to replace the production Mo Evans provides, grant the organization some modicum of flexibility to improve at the point or at small forward next Summer.

Sergiy Gladyr: He's clearly not ready to contribute at this point. It's difficult to gauge his skill level based on his performance in Vegas. Either he's not skilled or he was trying too hard to impress. I lean toward the latter as Summer League games tend to be ridiculously sped up and disorganized affairs. Either way, he's 20 (almost a full year younger than Jordan Crawford) and has time to develop. If, in three or four or five years, Gladyr can come over and knock down shots often enough to excuse the physical limitations that make him unlikely ever to be a plus defender or rebounder then he'll have been good use of a draft pick.

Pape Sy: It's easy to see how Sy impressed in a workout setting. He's long and fast. Outside of that (and granting that he was limited by injury) Sy showed little in Vegas. Using one's speed to drive into the lane at the far end of being under control, running into someone, and drawing a foul works fine in Summer League but has negligible value in the NBA unless one possesses the strength and body control of Dwyane Wade or Corey Maggette. Sy does not. He never looked likely to finish. His ball-handling would be acceptable for a wing defender but he's no sort of point guard despite spending most of his time playing that position in Vegas. Were he Gladyr's age there might be reason for optimism. But he's not. To put things in perspective, he's only two years younger than the forgotten Viktor Sanikidze and a year younger than Cenk Akyol.

Richard Hendrix: Hendrix is the only guy free agent on the Summer League roster who could add something to the regular rotation: post offense from the second unit. On the other hand, he would also be one more guy in the rotation whose value is primarily offensive. With no demonstrable organizational emphasis on finding complementary pieces, I doubt Hendrix will signed to be the fourth big guy in the rotation with a defensive caddy for him getting the fifth spot. Maccabi Tel Aviv seems more plausible.

Alade Aminu: There's no way to evaluate Aminu's defensive ability in this context. His offensive skills are rudimentary at best. He's definitely long and active and would be a fine fifth big guy with a non-zero chance to develop into a rotation player.

Jermareo Davidson: Davidson is not dissimilar to Aminu though he plays lower to the ground and, largely due to being three years older, has a lower center of gravity that could be more useful defending in the post in the short term. Given that Aminu has at least an offer to play in France and Davidson has some NBA experience, Jermareo might be the more likely member of the 2010-11 Hawks.

Trey Gilder: Gilder would be a fine backup for Marvin Williams. Because he can't shoot and because the Hawks appear to be unconcerned with Mo Evans' struggles to defend small forwards, it's not especially likely he'll get the gig. If Gilder could shoot, he'd be a borderline NBA starter.

James Augustine: He's another plausible fifth big man, one who would definitely provide support with defense and rebounding if little else. There's some potential entertainment value were Augustine and Zaza Pachulia to share the floor and give the team a two-headed hard-fouling monster.

Randolph Morris: I don't believe anyone learned anything new about Randolph Morris.

Landon Milbourne: Like Morris, Milbourne's presence on the team appeared to more to do with where he attended high school than his likelihood of making the team. I hope he caught the attention of a European scout in his limited minutes.

Luke Jackson: Jackson's presumably headed back to Europe. His time as a potential NBA player has passed though having a professional basketball career after undergoing multiple back surgeries says something for his skill level.

FanHouse: Tomasson: Jason Collins Expected To Re-Sign With Hawks

They weren't kidding about "bulky."

Signing Jason Collins for the nine-year veteran minimum will cost $1,229,255 on paper, but the league will reimburse $374,866 of that to the Hawks and that $374,866 will not count as team salary should the Hawks go over the luxury tax line.

Jason Collins 2009-10 Season Review, quoted in full:

115 minutes, 21 fouls, 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 4:49 of useful basketball. It appears I may have overestimated what Collins had left.

Summer League: Hangover Links

Five days and four nights* at Summer League, plus that West-to-East travel put me down for the better part of a day. Catching up...

• Here's that Jordan Crawford piece I wrote for the Daily Dime (#9) yesterday:

  In his first two summer league appearances, Jordan Crawford displayed good basketball instincts. That's not unusual to see in summer league, but rarely in this setting does that trait come with both the athleticism and skill to take advantage of good instincts. The results: 36 points on 27 shots, seven assists against just four turnovers and six steals in his first taste of professional basketball. In his third game, Crawford's youth betrayed him. Matched up against DeMarcus Nelson for much of the game, Crawford struggled to create space for himself against the similarly framed but markedly older and stronger defender. He still scored 12 points but he needed 12 field goal attempts and six free throw attempts to do so. Lesser numbers to be sure, but far from shameful for a 21-year-old facing an NBA-quality defender for the first time. The game wasn't a complete washout for Crawford. Those good instincts were still apparent. In transition, he looks to pass ahead as often as he looks to finish. When the Hawks' motion offense stretched the Bucks' defense in the half court (as it did often in the 83-60 victory) Crawford consistently made himself available, often with the next pass rather than a shot for himself in mind. He earned three more assists, committing just one turnover. It's unlikely that Crawford will get significant minutes for the Hawks this season. Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Maurice Evans all figure to slot ahead of him in the rotation. As time passes, and if his body matures to match his game, it's easy to imagine him proving to have been a tremendous use of the 27th pick in the NBA draft.

• Colleagues former (Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk) and current (Matt Moore** of everywhere) joined me courtside for the Hawks/Bucks Summer League tilt. Kurt focused on Jeff Teague. Matt offered thoughts on both Teague and Richard Hendrix.
  
• Word's out that ownership is not willing to go over the luxury tax line. I certainly don't think they should do so to sign Shaquille O'Neal (or any other veteran center). Nor do I believe that this demonstrates an unwillingness to spend money. I can think of four contracts that quite clearly demonstrate the opposite. The problem with this organization is an inability to spend wisely. I have no reason to assume they don't want to win, they're just not very clever in their efforts to accomplish that goal.
• Hawks v. D-League Select, for those of you without Summer League Broadband, can first be seen at 7am (EDT) Sunday on NBA TV.
  

*The events of most of those nights technically took place in the morning hours.

**True story: the first thing Matt Moore said to me in person, "How does Alade look?" Furthermore, he meant it.