Reaction to the Atlanta Hawks Trade For Kirk Hinirch

My thoughts on the trade are here.

Larry Drew:

"As everybody knows we’ve been searching for a point guard for a while, somebody who can come in and run this club. Not saying that Mike didn’t go a good job, but there just comes a point where a change has to take place. We as an organization felt like it was that time.

Kirk brings such a wealth of toughness at that position. He’s a heady guy, he’s a smart guy. All the intangibles you are looking for he brings to the table."

Joe Johnson:

"We let three good guys go who I had become really good friends with. But at the same time we understand the business aspect and this is the profession we chose knowing that trades happen. You have to deal with it. Getting Kirk and Armstrong is definitely going to contribute to what we are trying to do. Kirk is very defensive-minded and a guy who can really knock down the open shot and penetrate and make plays for others as well. I think he is going to be beneficial for us."

Jamal Crawford:

"It’s tough to tell now [how the trade will work]. Mike was the leader at point guard for a while. Jordan has a bright future. Mo is just solid, gives you defense and 3-point shooting. But I played with Kirk Hinrich and I know what he’s about."

Michael Cunningham:

Moving Jordan and the first-round pick is the latest indication the Hawks, when push comes to shove, are more focused on making moves they think will help now vs. player and asset development in the future.

Which is true except when it isn't: like when the Hawks take Jeff Teague instead of DeJuan Blair or Darren Collison, or when they sell the 31st pick, then buyout Pape Sy's contract.

Mark Bradley deems the trade OK:

Best-case scenario: Hinrich does his hybrid-guard act — he used to be quite good at it, but his numbers haven’t been anything special the past four seasons — and puts the other Hawks in the right position and this team manages to win a first-round series.

Worst-case scenario: Hinrich fails to mesh with Joe Johnson — say what you want about Bibby, but he and Johnson made a nice tandem — and the Hawks, who have bombed out in Round 2 the past two seasons, bomb out in Round 1 this spring.

Either way, the addition of Hinrich and Armstrong is no cause for re-calibration of this team’s ceiling. The Hawks aren’t much different today than they’ve been for the past three years. They’re a pretty good team in an Eastern Conference that keeps getting more competitive at the top.

It comes as no surprise that this trade is met with scorn at HawkStr8Talk:

The trade sucks - Kirk Hinrich, age 30, is not an NBA difference maker at a position that is full of difference makers. The defense gets better, but only incrementally. The Hawks needed a difference maker at PG and so, they got another guy to join Collins and Thomas and Powell on the bench twiddling their thumbs. And so what did they give up - the guy you drafted and raved about who could replace a one dimensional Jamal Crawford (furthering my fears that we could actually RESIGN a guy who isn't going to help your team win a title) and a first round draft pick who could help you build depth on the cheap. Doesn't matter to me that Bibby and Evans needed to leave town, but a lateral at BEST move just sucks.

What else do we lose? Future flexibility come 2012 to actually sign someone who matters. Or in other words, fail, fail, fail!!! If the player you trade for doesn't change your seed and doesn't change your lot come playoff time (I mean does ANYONE think Hinrich is the difference in the Hawks winning and losing vs. the Orlando Magic). So, I say again - this organization is completely and utterly clueless. Period. I'm on record as saying this trade will blow up in the Hawks' face. At least we got a 4 time all star for giving up extra stuff that wasn't necessary in the Joe Johnson, but going overboard for Kirk Hinrich...REALLY!?!?!

I think it's the extra stuff the Hawks gave up to get Joe Johnson that's the root cause of the team's current second-round ceiling and the lodestar of the organization's limitations. The Joe Johnson sign-and-trade worked as well as could be expected but didn't bring the team significantly closer to winning a championship (at least not nearly as much as drafting Josh Smith and Al Horford did). That's why you don't see typically see teams build around the fourth-best player on a conference finalist.

The Hawks were right about Johnson having more potential than his production in Phoenix indicated. They were (and are) wrong about how good he could be (and is) in absolute terms.

Sekou Smith (who wanted the Hawks to draft Mike Conley, Jr. rather than Al Horford):

Jeff Teague, the Hawks’ second-year point guard, is clearly not ready for a starring role and might not be anytime soon. He was as given every opportunity to supplant Bibby and couldn’t do it. He’s the latest in a long line of supposed point guard solutions that ended up being a problem (Speedy Claxton, Acie Law) for the Hawks.

They’ve tried everything at the point from Royal Ivey to Anthony Johnson to Tyronn Lue to even playing Joe Johnson at point guard during his first season with the team. That’s nine different point guard options spanning two different regimes (former general manager Billy Knight is the man who drafted Marvin Williams, paid Claxton, drafted Law and also traded for Bibby while current general manager Rick Sund is the man who shipped Claxton and Law out of town for Jamal Crawford, drafted Teague and made the deal for Hinrich).

While Hinrich is clearly an upgrade over Bibby, particularly at the defensive end, he still doesn’t solve the Hawks’ seemingly eternal point guard problem.

Zach Lowe thinks the trade helps both the Hawks and the Wizards:

Nabbing Hinrich doesn’t make the Hawks a title contender, but it feels like the kind of move that could have a bigger impact on the court than many anticipate. Start with this: Hinrich can defend point guards. Very well. And that addresses the main problem with Atlanta’s defense, which ranks about average despite the Hawks’ having faced the easiest schedule in the league. It isn’t just that Bibby can’t defend point guards; it’s the degree to which the Hawks have had to compensate for the 32-year-old’s defensive issues. They’ve had to tire out Johnson by assigning him point guard duty. They’ve gone to zone defenses that haven’t really worked. They’ve switched too often, though less so this season under rookie coach Larry Drew.

They can toss out those gimmicks now and go to work with lineups like Hinrich, Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith and Al Horford. That works.

The Hawks will miss Bibby’s shooting, but it’s not as if they are losing a pick-and-roll stud who initiates most of their sets. Bibby handles the ball some, but he’s usually a spot-up shooter and screen-setter in Drew’s offense, which mixes in motion plays, post-ups and lots of off-the-dribble work for Johnson and Jamal Crawford. Hinrich, 30, can step into Bibby’s role immediately, and he happens to be shooting a solid 38 percent from three-point range (and a career-best 45 percent overall) this season.

One small bonus that Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel picked up on immediately: Hinrich is 6-3, tall and strong for a point guard, and he has defended a ton of shooting guards through a career of shifting between the two backcourt positions. That gives Atlanta a nice answer for when Miami goes to lineups that don’t include traditional point guards, and if the Heat earn the top seed in the Eastern Conference, there’s at least a small chance the two teams will meet in the second round.

John Hollinger gave the Hawks a B:

As far as need goes, it's tough to do better than this. Atlanta Hawks fans who have spent half a decade watching their point guards get torched night after night will now have to cope with the shocking sight of Hinrich competently defending opponents at either guard spot.

...

Hinrich isn't as good a spot-up shooter as the departed Mike Bibby but he's better at everything else, and his ability to play off the ball should make him a solid backcourt cohort with Jamal Crawford or even Jeff Teague. Look for Joe Johnson to also benefit, as he'll no longer be spending his nights chasing all the point guards that Bibby couldn't contain.

...

Oh, Hilton Armstrong is in the trade too. He'll make Jason Collins and Josh Powell feel better about themselves in practice.

Kevin Pelton summarizes what the trade might mean for the Hawks on the court the rest of this season and beyond:

How much is that upgrade worth? I’d say maybe a game or two over a full season. Ordinarily, that’s an enormous difference. But the gap between the Hawks and the East’s best teams is so large that I’m not sure this move makes much of a dent. Atlanta still looks to me like first-round fodder for the Magic. That’s when you have to start wondering about the Hawks’ future. This deal means giving up two years’ worth of young contributors on cost-effective rookie deals. Backup point guard Jeff Teague is the only growing player of note on the Atlanta roster, and this deal along with rumors involving Teague seem to indicate the Hawks don’t view him as a starter any time soon. So Atlanta isn’t good enough right now, and can’t count on adding young talent. That’s a pretty bad recipe for long-term relevance.

At Bullets Forever, Mike Prada is just lukewarm on the trade.

Atlanta Hawks Trade Mike Bibby, et al. For Kirk Hinrich

The trade: Mike Bibby, Mo Evans, Jordan Crawford, and Atlanta's 2011 first-round pick for Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong.

There is more to this deal for the Hawks than Kirk Hinrich not being Mike Bibby. Though not the player he was, say, four seasons ago, Hinrich is still younger and better than Bibby today and Hinrich's strengths will not be as redundant while playing alongside Jamal Crawford.

Hinrich has a well-deserved reputation as a good defender and, even accounting for the diminishing effect of age, he will likely be more effective defending in front Josh Smith and Al Horford than he was in front of Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee. It should be remembered though that, even at his defensive peak, was never a great defender of point guards. His greatest strength was defending bigger guards where his long arms and tenacious effort off-the-ball made up for his lack of quickness (at least a lack relative to the league's quickest point guards) in ways those skills couldn't when defending point guards. Hinrich will pick up much of the slack Bibby left his teammates to deal with on the defensive end but won't do much to solve the problems caused by Crawford's (arguably worse) play on that end of the court.

Offensively, Hinrich should be (at least once he picks up the offense) able to match Bibby's contributions. Over their careers, they're both 37.9% three-point shooters. Going back to his time at Kansas, Hinrich has always been a far better shooter when spotting up than when coming off screens so he should feel comfortable playing off Joe Johnson, Crawford, Josh Smith, and Al Horford.

As for when the ball's in Hinrich's hands, unlike Bibby, he hasn't seen his assist rate crater yet. Hinrich's two-and-a-half years younger than Bibby and it's fair to assume that he'll be more dynamic as a pick-and-roll ball-handler than Bibby. If so, running pick-and-roll with the first unit might actually turn into pick-and-roll occasionally rather than just pick-and-pop. The flip side of that is that Hinrich will probably turn the ball over more often than Bibby.

Trading Mo Evans likely means more Damien Wilkins but if it means less Mo Evans plus Damien Wilkins, then it might help the Hawks marginally. When Jordan Crawford saw his playing time decrease upon Joe Johnson's injury, it appeared he was on the typical young Hawk career path. Who knows what kind of player he'll become but it's hard to envision him becoming a useful player here. Same goes for whoever the Hawks would have picked late in this summer's draft. For his part, Hilton Armstrong figures to slot in alongside Josh Powell and Etan Thomas to form a triumvirate of useless big men on the end of the bench.

Financially, the addition of Hinrich adds a few hundred thousand dollars to Atlanta's 2010-11 (though the Hawks remain approximately $200,000 under the luxury tax line) and 2011-12 payroll but his expiring deal should be far easier to deal than Bibby's after this season or during the next should the Hawks wish to do so. The inclusion of Crawford the Younger and the 2011 first-round pick will save the Hawks some future guaranteed money as well.

Hinrich is no longer good enough to make a real difference over a 25-game stretch but his good qualities will help the Hawks defend on the perimeter and may well make a positive difference for the Hawks in the matchup calculus of a seven-game series.

2010-11 Season Preview: Maurice Evans

Previously: Josh Powell, Jordan Crawford, Etan Thomas and Jason Collins, Pape Sy

Dissatisfaction with Maurice Evans essentially boils down to an aesthetic complaint and/or a refusal to acknowledge the difficult reality* of acquiring a superior player given Atlanta's lack of assets and financial flexibility. Mike Woodson seemed to distrust Evans for his disinclination to dribble and utilized him sub-optimally as a backup small forward, a position he's struggled to defend effectively (or, at least, anywhere nearly as effectively as Marvin Williams) in either of his two seasons in Atlanta.

Evans is a below-average player but a perfectly fine reserve. Assuming he recovers from his knee surgery (as is expected), expect he'll make about 37% of his three-point attempts, take most of the rest of his shots at the rim, contribute on the offensive glass, and rarely turn the ball over since he creates almost no offense for himself. He's a limited player overall. That's why he's never played more than 1840 minutes in seven NBA seasons. His specific skills, though, are useful. That's why he's played at least 1139 minutes for a winning team for each of the last six seasons.

*A problem which should also stop most of the "Let's get a true center." arguments before they start.

AJC.com: Cunningham: 'Hard Work' Drew's Theme As Camp Opens

Michael Cunningham reports on the pace of practice Larry Drew has implemented to increase the pace of play once the season begins:

The Hawks started the morning with a timed mile run, followed by an intense practice of nearly three hours. The Hawks were to practice again Tuesday night, with Drew promising more drill work.

Players described the morning session as intense with no wasted times between drills. The portion of practice open to reporters featured several full-speed, three-man weaves with Drew barking at players to pick up the pace.

...

Drew wants the Hawks to play at a faster pace this season while running his motion offense and also playing tighter man-to-man defense. Conditioning is key to those goals.

"That's the way all of our practices will be, whether we are here [90 minutes] or here for an hour," Drew said. "They will be high intensity because I'm just a firm believer in getting your work done and getting out."

Cunningham also reports that will be two weeks until Maurice Evans will be cleared to participate following surgery on his right knee and that a bad back has Pape Sy sidelined indefinitely.

Mo Evans Exercises His 2010-11 Option

Michael Cunningham spoke with Maurice Evans:

"There are not a lot of teams out there giving away contracts. I’m satisfied with my deal even though it’s undervalued. I’m still going to go out and do my job."

This brings the team's 2010-11 salary commitment up to $47,630,214 (for eight players) and probably eliminates whatever chance there was the Hawks would take a guard with the 24th pick. It also leaves Jamal Crawford, backed up* by Mo Evans, playing shooting guard for the Hawks should Joe Johnson leave.

*Presuming the new coach will not continue to play Evans out of position at the 3.

see also: 2009-10 Season Review: Maurice Evans

2009-10 Season Review: Maurice Evans

Previously: Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, Marvin Williams, Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Mike Woodson, Rick Sund

Due to Marvin Williams not missing 21 games, Mo Evans played less in 2009-10 than he did in 2008-09 and had his worst three-point shooting season since his first full season in the league, which was partially responsible for him scoring significantly fewer points per game. Bad season, right?

The answer is both more nuanced and less important than that. Taking the latter point first, as a low-usage reserve, Mo Evans has relatively little impact on the success or failure of the Atlanta Hawks. Over the course of a season he can reasonably be expected to do little more than not hurt the team. He's been a competent bench player for six straight seasons with five different teams without any team feeling the need to find a larger role for him.

As for the former point, though the shape of his offensive performance changed considerably in 2009-10 his overall production was not clearly inferior to the previous season. That he played less often certainly made it appear he did less than in 2008-09 (and, in an absolute sense, he did do less) but it was, overall, a rather typical Mo Evans season. Though less efficient in his scoring than in 2008-09, Evans scored more points per minute (or per possession) in 2009-10 than he did in the previous season.

Evans accomplished this (and almost made up for his poor three-point shooting) by taking a far higher percentage of his shots at the rim and converting them at a decent rate.

Evans	%FGA (at rim)	eFG%	3PTA/FGA	eFG%
2008-09	25.7	56	51.5	59.3
2009-10	31	61.5	43	50.6

Evans also mitigated his poor three-point shooting by simultaneously increasing his assist rate and decreasing his turnover rate in his second season in Atlanta.

Evans	A/100	TO/100
2008-09	1.59	1.27
2009-10	1.91	0.79

NOTE: That's per 100 on-court possessions not per 100 possessions used.

It's more difficult to make a case for Evans' defensive performance in 2009-10. The Hawks gave up 2.35 more points per 100 possessions with Evans on the court than with him off the court. That differential was essentially the same as in 2008-09, when he got far more court time alongside the starters. One could argue that Evans wasn't deployed optimally, and it's true that the team allowed fewer points per possession with Evans playing the 2 than with him playing the 3 but it's difficult to conclude how much of that difference reflects an inherent ability to defend opposing shooting guards and how much was due to Marvin Williams being so much more effective than Evans in defending opposing small forwards.

The breakdown:

Evans	Def Eff	Poss
as a 3	110	2027
as a 2	103.6	502
other	71.4	7

If Evans does choose to opt out of the final year of his contract, the Hawks should be able to replace his production relatively easily (and could even improve on his production if the defensive issue is Evans' inability to guard small forwards effectively) and plausibly at a reduced cost. The basketball world is not exactly suffering from a shortage of swingmen who can do two or three things well.

Hawks Earn Third Seed, Mo Evans Expected To Opt Out This Summer

The Bulls (Derrick Rose, mostly) beat the Celtics 101-93 last night to settle the third and fourth seeds in the East. All Miami has to do to secure the fifth seed is beat the Nets at home. If the Heat win, Milwaukee will be the sixth seed and face the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs.

In a longer-term development, Michael Cunningham followed up on a tweet from DraftExpress speculating that Maurice Evans is likely not to exercise his player option for next season by asking the man himself:

"Obviously my focus right now is on the playoffs, and I’m excited about where we are headed as a team and looking forward to it. At the same time I’m excited about the possibilities of this summer. I’ve been on six different playoff teams where I’ve made an impact."

Translation: Of course he will opt out. Why wouldn’t he? There certainly will be a market for a reasonably-priced player who might be undersized for forward but who can defend, likes to mix it up inside and has no fear of taking big shots. Mo, 31, most likely can get a longer deal on the market, if not from the Hawks.

All this time I've been underestimating the market for Mo Evans. If Evans opts out, the Hawks will have $45.1 million committed to eight players plus a $10.9 million cap hold for Josh Childress and, of course, the $1.06 million qualifying offer to Mario West lest another team steal his unique talent away.

Mo Evans Expected To Miss Thursday's Game Due To Illness

From Michael Cunningham's Hawks Blog at AJC.com:

Mo Evans (flu-like symptoms) didn’t fly with the team to D.C. today and isn’t expected to play Thursday at the Wizards.

Mo Evans Has Cooled Off

Mo Evans: nice bench player on a reasonable contract, possible future coach, native Kansan, and currently slumping offensively.

One of the highlights of the Hawks' December blowout rampage was the four-game stretch where Evans averaged 17 points a game, shot 84.2 eFG%, and made at least 3 three-pointers in each of the games all in just 28 minutes per game. Since then, though, Evans hasn't made more than 1 field goal in any of the Hawks' last nine games, shooting 25 eFG% over the stretch.

Now, unlike certain of his teammates, Evans brings things to the table other than shot-making: acceptable defense, offensive rebounding, quick and solid decision-making* so it's not so much a crisis as an odd looking game log that describes another small piece of the current 2-6 skid.

*Eight turnovers in 509 minutes so far this season. It's only a slight exaggeration to say that ball-movement never bogs down when Evans touches the ball.

Season-Long Theme: Backcourt Defense

Previously: Rebounding, Josh Smith's Shot Selection, Three-Point Shooting, Jeff Teague's Playing Time

I looked at the Hawks' backcourt defense after the opening night win over Indiana. The parameters of this on-going survey have changed a bit. On opening night, Joe Johnson played at the 3 for just three defensive possessions. In the six subsequent games, he's played the 3 for 142 defensive possessions, thus, the three-guard lineups get their own chart in this edition. Also, Maurice Evans has played 14 defensive possessions at shooting guard (all of them alongside Jamal Crawford) so that tandem gets its own row on the chart. I'm not including Evans in the individual chart as his time at the 2-guard constitutes just 6% of his total defensive possessions played.

all data from BasketballValue.com

First, the two-guard lineups...

Backcourt	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Crawford/Evans	14	10	0.714
Teague/Crawford	123	125	1.016
Bibby/Johnson	229	235	1.026
Bibby/Crawford	33	35	1.061
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Crawford/Johnson	107	136	1.271
Teague/Johnson	12	21	1.75

It's interesting (though I'm not willing to draw any conclusions about it at this time) that Teague and Crawford have been fine while playing alongside each other but when either one plays alongside Joe Johnson (in a two guard lineup) those tandems have been terrible.

As the number of possessions under consideration grows, I'll examine whether the various backcourt combinations are getting unequal court time alongside the better or the worse post defenders.

Individual defensive ratings for post defenders, year-to-date...

Player	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Horford	452	468	1.035
Josh Smith	435	467	1.074
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Joe Smith	132	153	1.159
Pachulia	199	245	1.231

An examination of Marvin Williams' offensive and defensive efficiencies at the 3 and 4 is coming in the next post

Now, the three-guard lineups...

Backcourt	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Teague/Crawford/Johnson	31	31	1.000
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Bibby/Crawford/Johnson	114	123	1.079

The best, offensively, of Atlanta's frequently used lineups has been Bibby/Crawford/Johnson/Josh Smith/Horford which has scored 99 points in 70 offensive possessions (offensive efficiency: 1.414).

Finally, the on-court defensive efficiencies for the Hawks' guards...

Player	Def Poss	Opp Pts	Def Eff
Bibby	376	393	1.045
Teague	166	176	1.060
TEAM	663	715	1.078
Crawford	422	459	1.088
Johnson	493	545	1.105

2008-09 Season Review: Maurice Evans

Previously: Rick Sund, Mike Woodson, Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Flip Murray, Zaza Pachulia

An almost perfectly average bench player, whose sole moment of inspiration (for me) this season (gratuitous references to Kansas heritage don't count) concerned the formulation of a (since abandoned) theory that Mike Woodson might underrate players who don't dribble a lot, Maurice Evans spent the 2008-09 season making spot up three-pointers, being in position defensively, and, in not doing much else, created the impression that he understood his limitations. He should be able to repeat the trick in the 2009-10 season though it wouldn't be the worst allocation of resources to bring in a younger, more athletic wing player to serve as a understudy/partner to Evans.

Because of Evans' very specific skill set, he should have a key bench role regardless of the changes to the roster this summer. His offensive role would likely shrink if the Hawks choose to push the tempo more often. On the other hand, were the Hawks to replace Mike Bibby with a penetrating point guard, Evans' presence behind the three-point line in the corner might become more valuable.

Evans provides largely effective defense despite not being the most athletic player. Were the Hawks to temper their enthusiasm for switching every screen, his intelligence and veteran guile might provide a slight defensive boost during his time on the court.

Then again, the predictability of Evans' production and his expiring contract might make him an attractive make-weight in a trade should Rick Sund attempt to remake the roster in some fundamental way either before or during the season.

How Good a Free Agent Signing Was Flip Murray?

The question comes from Micah Hart who, when I was writing a post entitled "Subtraction By Addition" when Murray signed with the Hawks, was writing the following:

The thing I like about Murray's game is his ability to create his own shot, a skill not many Hawks possess save for Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby (though I think Acie Law is developing). He's a vet, he's been in the playoffs, and he gives the team another shooter to take some of the pressure off our starters.

There can no debate regarding which of us was right and which of us was wrong we can only attempt to ascertain to what degree I was wrong.

So Micah asks: if you look at the performance of all free agents who changed teams last year I want to know where Flip Murray ranks in terms of contribution to wins vs salary spent. Like if you were to use something like Win Shares in baseball, how much has he cost per win (or whatever) compared to his peers?

I'll look at Win Shares (courtesy Basketball-Reference.com), EWA (courtesy John Hollinger and ESPN.com), and WARP (courtesy Basketball Prospectus) for the best and most cost-effective free agent signings.

As all three ratings scale somewhat differently I've chosen not to make a futile effort to normalize or combine them, so there will be three charts below, one for each rating system. I've also only included salary information for this year. Obviously (for example) Oklahoma City's signing of Nenad Krstic (both Win Shares and EWA have him being worth a win-and-a-half in less than a thousand minutes this season) may prove more cost-effective over the life of the contract than Atlanta's signing of Flip Murray but since Flip is our subject and he's on a one year deal, we'll look at value for dollar for this season only.

First, Win Shares

Player (Team)	Win Shares	08-09 $ (in millions)
Andersen, Chris (DEN)	5	1
Duhon, Chris (NY)	4.2	5.58
Mason, Roger (SA)	4.1	3.5
Posey, James (NO)	4	5.58
Turiaf, Ronny (GS)	3.7	4.5
Maggette, Corey (GS)	3.6	8.275
Evans, Maurice (ATL)	3.5	2.5
Murray, Flip (ATL)	2.9	1.5
Pietrus, Mickael (ORL)	2.9	5.3
Barnes, Matt (PHX)	2.8	1.2
Amundson, Louis (PHX)	1.8	0.8

Next, EWA

Player (Team)	EWA	08-09 $ (in millions)
Maggette, Corey (GS)	5	8.275
Andersen, Chris (DEN)	4.9	1
Davis, Baron (LAC)	4.3	11.25
Murray, Flip (ATL)	3.6	1.5
Turiaf, Ronny (GS)	3.2	4.5
Duhon, Chris (NY)	2	5.58
Barnes, Matt (PHX)	2	1.2
Mason, Roger (SA)	1.5	3.5
Krstic, Nenad (OKC)	1.5	5
Brand, Elton (PHI)	1.4	13.75
Amundson, Louis (PHX)	1.1	0.8

Maurice Evans has 0.6 EWA.

Finally, WARP (The player card for Nenad Krstic, at the time of writing, do not have WARP info for either player.)

Player (Team)	WARP	08-09 $ (in millions)
Andersen, Chris (DEN)	6.8	1
Davis, Baron (LAC)	4.3	11.25
Turiaf, Ronny (GS)	4.1	4.5
Amundson, Louis (PHX)	2.2	0.8
Duhon, Chris (NY)	2	5.58
Maggette, Corey (GS)	1.9	8.275
Brand, Elton (PHI)	1.2	13.75
Murray, Flip (ATL)	1	1.5
Barnes, Matt (PHX)	0.9	1.2
Ratliff, Theo (PHI)	0.6	1.26

Maurice Evans' WARP is -0.6.

Notes

• It looks like Chris Andersen, even before accounting for his cost, has been the most productive free agent to change teams over the summer. That Denver is paying him just $1 million this season is a boon for the Nuggets. Andersen should receive plenty of interest this summer.
• Corey Maggette has been more productive than Flip Murray but he really should be for 5.5x the price.
• Louis Amundson hasn't been (except according to WARP) quite as productive as Flip Murray but could represent greater value since he's paid a hair under $800,000.
• Matt Barnes narrowly trails Flip Murray on all three rating systems and does so at 80% of the cost.

Conclusion

After looking at three advanced metrics designed to account for as much of a player's value as possible, Flip Murray appears to be at worst the 4th-best and at best the 2nd-best value for money free agent to change teams this past off-season.

Credit to Flip Murray, Rick Sund, and Mike Woodson making Murray's season as productive and cost-effective as its been. Credit also to Micah Hart for being right in advance where I was so, so wrong.

Further Reading: Marginal Dollars Per Marginal Win by Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus

What?

Sekou Smith has either lost his mind or is mining an extreme satiric strain this morning by suggesting that the Atlanta Hawks are winners in free agency.

Even with the departure of Josh Childress to Greece, the Hawks made out like bandits on the free-agent scene. They kept Josh Smith in the fold for a mere $58 million and added much needed veteran help in Mo Evans and Flip Murray at crucial backup backcourt positions at minimum prices. A six-year deal for Smith with the same annual salary would have ended up being around $72 million, which is a bit more than the Hawks were willing to pay their starting power forward. But the Memphis Grizzlies did the heavy lifting for them by presenting Smith with an offer sheet the Hawks matched within hours after receiving it — making good on their promise to do just that when Smith turned down a $45 million offer before the start of his fourth season.

I like Sekou Smith. He takes his job seriously, writes well, and deserves all our sympathy for having to read even some of the comments left on his blog. But I'm not buying this.

• Josh Childress's departure is, in and of itself, seriously damaging. Factor in that Childress was a restricted free agent and the Hawks lost him for nothing and it was, as international media attention would lead you to believe, an historical blunder by the franchise.
• Josh Smith is a relative bargain financially but that figures to be off-set by Mike Woodson's inability/disinterest in maximizing Smith's on-court contributions.
• Maurice Evans should be a slight positive addition. He is not capable of replacing Josh Childress's value, however.
• Flip Murray is a bad basketball player who figures to take minutes away from Acie Law IV, who might be a useful basketball player. Rick Sund signing Murray to play basketball will prove to be worse a worse allocation of resources than Billy Knight signing Speedy Claxton not to play basketball.

That's not a winning slate of free agent decisions.

Hawks Sign Maurice Evans

The Hawks needed to add a couple of nice bench players before they magically made Josh Childress disappear so I think the AJC (or AJC.com) headline writer: Hawks fill Childress' void by signing Evans is being overly optimistic. Evans is four years older than Childress has never played as much as Childress nor as efficiently. Still, rare among his new teammates, he can make the three-point shot and he has a reputation as a good defender (Though Orlando gave up 5.3 more points per 100 possessions when Evans was on the floor last year, his defensive on/off numbers from previous years would suggest he's average at worst.)

The details:

Journeyman Maurice Evans has agreed to terms with the Hawks on a three-year deal believed to be worth about $7.5 million, according to multiple sources familiar with the situation.

Career stats at Basketball-Reference.com