Season Review: Predictions

I don't think the season reviews proper will begin appearing until next week but, in the interests of self-examination and owning up to my own limitations, I'm prefacing them with a brief accounting of how and why I again underestimated the Hawks prior to the season.

"Some Early Prediction Thoughts," was a well-intentioned but not especially thought through post. In retrospect, using Win Shares over-complicated an already difficult task as it encompasses both player and team performance in a single number. I don't have a projection system* and cobbling together some scratch work involving advanced stats doesn't change that. I didn't even do an especially good job of estimating player minutes for a team that suffered no significant injuries.

*Compare my efforts with some things I took note of in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10 to see the value of a projection system when making projections.

I did, though, set a realistic goal for my record prediction:

I'm researching and exploring some methods to utilize in the hopes of making a more objective, more accurate prediction for the 2009-10 season with the goal of getting within, let's say, ten games of the Hawks' final record. A small step but one which would constitute an almost 30% improvement for me over last year's prediction. It's all about setting attainable goals.

In my official season preview, I pegged the Hawks for 44 wins but gave myself plenty of wiggle room in the text:

The Hawks have not built, nor do they appear to be building, a championship contender. Instead, a bifurcated ownership group, former GM Billy Knight, Mike Woodson, and current GM Rick Sund have worked (if not always together) to assemble the best Hawks team in a decade, a 44 to 50-win squad almost certain to make the playoffs in the East for a third consecutive season.

and:

[T]he Hawks went from attempting one out of every six field goals from beyond the arc in 2007-08 and making 35.6 percent of them to attempting one out of every four field goals from beyond the arc in 2008-09 and making 36.6 percent of them. The improvement was a team effort. Mike Bibby and Josh Smith bettered their career 3-point field goal percentages. Flip Murray, Maurice Evans, and Marvin Williams each set career highs in 3-pointers made, attempted, and 3-point field goal percentage. Whether this was a sustainable, systemic improvement or just a confluence of unlikely performances will go a long way toward determining whether the Hawks’ win total in 2009-10 is closer to 47 or 37.

The Hawks followed up a 36.6% three-point shooting season with a 36% three-point shooting season. I guess it was sustainable. Josh Smith eliminating the three-point shot from his game (during the regular season) certainly helped make up for the decline in three-point percentage from Mo Evans and Marvin Williams. That Evans and Williams both shot fewer three-pointers in 2009-10 minimized the impact of their decline in accuracy.

None of which is to say that I didn't make too much of the team's three-point shooting much like how I overreacted to the loss of Josh Childress the previous summer.

Looking back, I'm not at all ashamed of this passage:

[T]he 2009-10 team will look an awful lot like the 2008-09 team, will fall out of the divisional race fairly early but will fight to the end for the fourth seed and its accompanying home court advantage, will win or lose a close first-round series, and, if the former occurs, [and] might even win a second-round playoff game...

My 2010 team predictions were better than my 2009 team predictions but they still weren't especially good. Nowhere did I mention turnover rate, the defining characteristic of the league's third-best offense in the regular season, I underestimated, despite writing a pretty good post about it, the impact of Josh Smith being healthy for a full season, and probably allowed my own prejudices to underrate Jamal Crawford's addition even though Flip Murray demonstrated the season before that the rest of the Hawks could make good use of a shoot-first third guard.

SI.com: Robson: Ranking the Rookie Point Guards

Hawks-centric excerpt from the second page of the article:

10. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks

The emergence of Sixth Man Award candidate Jamal Crawford as a capable reserve at both backcourt positions has severely cut into Teague's minutes, which peaked at 13.6 per game in December. The 21-year-old Wake Forest product is shooting 36.3 percent, including 22.7 percent from long range. Not even an impressive 6.2 assists/2.5 turnovers split per 36 minutes can atone for that many misses. Like the other players on this list, Teague has potential and time to shore up his weaknesses. But don't expect much more than towel-waving from the sidelines from this rookie come playoff time.

Considering my track record w/r/t predictions, I hold close those that can reasonably be deemed accurate. I give myself extra points for demonstrating some atypical patience on the subject of Mr. Teague.

While I'm patting myself on the back, one more excerpt from Britt Robson's piece:

Flynn, the No. 6 pick, has been a disappointment. The conventional wisdom is that he's been hamstrung by coach Kurt Rambis' triangle offense, but the numbers don't back it up. Among rookie point guards, only Evans and Jennings have attempted more shots per minute than Flynn (yes, the deadeye Curry shoots less often) and Flynn leads all rookies in turnovers per minute -- triangle or not, he's hardly disengaged from those half-court sets.

No disappointment to me (post from 6.10.09):

I've already expressed my skepticism regarding Flynn but to reiterate and expand upon my doubts what we've got here is a smaller than average point guard who doesn't score at a high rate, lacks a reliable jump shot, has not been asked to nor demonstrated the ability to play defense, and is getting a lot of intangible credit for being the heart and soul of an overrated Syracuse team.

The "already" from that excerpt refers to this even earlier post in which I tout Darren Collison as a superior prospect to Flynn.

I was, briefly, on fire.

On Starting 11-2

This post made possible by Basketball-Reference.com

Since the start of the 2000-01 season there have been 159 stretches* where a team has won 11 or more games and lost two or fewer games.

• 101 different teams have accomplished this in 267 team seasons** during the period under consideration. That means 37.8% of teams in the last decade have had a stretch where they've gone 11-2 or better.
• 64 of those 100 teams*** won 50 or more games.
• 9 of the 100 teams won 41 games or fewer. The 2004-05 Golden State Warriors won the fewest games, 34, of any team that went at least 11-2.
• The 100 teams averaged 51.9 wins.
• 14 teams started a season 11-2 or better.
• The 13 teams that started the season 11-2 or better (and have completed that season--see note ***) averaged 58.8 wins.
• 3 teams started a season exactly 11-2 and no better. They averaged 54**** wins.
  

*159 separate stretches. For example, I didn't count going 12-2 as two separate 13 game stretches wherein a team went 11-2.

**I only include the Hawks 2009-10 season in this total as they've already gone 11-2. No other team has done so yet and they all theoretically could. Dallas could do so tonight. That would make it, by this method of accounting, 102 out of 268 teams, 38.1%.

***The 2009-10 Hawks are not included here as we don't know how many games they'll win this season. That state of not knowing being the driving force behind this (admittedly) now slightly out of date post.

****Which, interestingly, is almost exactly how many games Larry predicted the Hawks would win after the Houston game.

Opening Night Game Thread: Indiana (0-0) @ Atlanta (0-0)

TIP-OFF: 7pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Pacers

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

INDIANA INJURY REPORT: Mike Dunleavy, Travis Diener, and Tyler Hansbrough are out. Jeff Foster is questionable. Danny Granger is doubtful a game-time decision.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -8, 204 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Eight Points Nine Seconds, Indy Cornrows

GAMEDAY LINKS

• Matt Moore previews the Hawks through the Lion Face/Lemon Face prism at Hardwood Paroxysm.
• Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle (who penned the excellent Hawks chapter of the book) of Basketball Prospectus posted their final projections and predictions.
• Neil Paine's Eastern Conference Preview on the Basketball-Reference.com Blog includes projected per 36 minute stats for every player.
• Hawks? Check. Lang Whitaker? Check. NPR? Sure, why not.
• The Human Highlight Blog ably previewed the Hawks in three parts. (1, 2, 3)
• Here's a direct link to the Eight Points, Nine Seconds Pacers Preview.
• The Pacers may not have heard of offensive or defensive efficiency. There's no disputing they weren't good defensively last year, finishing 19th in the league. That "free-flowing, high-octane offense the past two seasons" finished 18th in the league in offensive efficiency last year and 19th in 2008. The Pacers have averaged the third-most possessions per game each of the last two seasons, hence the understandable confusion. Less understandable: acquiring Solomon Jones and Tyler Hansbrough in the hopes they'll improve your team defense.
• Bob Kravitz has heard of defensive efficiency.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

30 Reasons To Celebrate The New Season

Optimism. Unrelenting positivity. (Not this positive or optimistic, but still plenty positive.) 30 reasons, one for every team, to celebrate the new season.

Atlanta: Marvin Williams successfully consolidates his developing and disparate talents into a coherent whole thus making his value obvious to even the casual observer.

Boston: Glen "Seems like he should be more likable than I find him" Davis's unfortunate college reunion gives Shelden Williams his last, best chance to make a positive impact for an NBA team.

Charlotte: Larry Brown's accomplished a lot of great things in his career. Greatness is unlikely to be present in Charlotte this season so we'll settle for a small, good thing when this team that defends so well and scores so fitfully forces observers, even if only temporarily, to consider the canard "Defense wins championships."

Chicago: I honestly believe that this is the year that Vinny Del Negro learns Mr. Hinrich's first name.

Cleveland: I don't know if this will be the last year that LeBron James is the best small forward in the league or the first year that he's the best power forward in the league but the best player in the world is evolving.

Dallas: Rick Carlisle embraces Drew Gooden's unpredictability and gives him regular minutes. Gooden repays the trust by spear-heading a four-headed monster (Gooden, Dampier, Marion, and Humphries) of offensive rebounding that devastates opponents on the relatively rare ocassions that a Maverick misses a jump shot.

Denver: Ty Lawson per 36 pre-season minutes: 22.1 points, 6.4 assists, 1.7 turnovers, 4.1 steals.

Detroit: Will Bynum wins one for all the underemployed point guards out there.

Golden State: Anthony Randolph somehow becomes more effective and more sui generis.

Houston: The results of the conscious half of the great usage experiment.

Indiana: I'm not down on Jim O'Brien but neither am I predicting him to work a miracle in Indiana this year. Still, if Mike Dunvleavy, Jr. returns at close to full health, this could be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference in calender year 2010.

LA Clippers: One hopes that Blake Griffin's physical gifts extend into the realm of healing quickly.

LA Lakers: You got your Ron Artest in my triangle. You got your triangle in my Ron Artest.

Memphis: The torch is going to be passed, but from Iverson to Mayo or from Iverson to Rudy Gay? There's also the chance that Hamed Haddadi outplays Hasheen Thabeet.

Miami: Michael Beasley reduces his reliance on the jump shot and begins to fulfill his potential to be a largely unstoppable offensive force.

Milwaukee: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute moving his feet defensively. All-Defensive Team voters, take notice.

Minnesota: #1 off-season bargain, Ramon Sessions, puts Jonny Flynn in perspective.

New Jersey: Chris Douglas-Roberts' coming-out party (begins Wednesday in Minnesota) makes League Pass worth it all by itself.

New Orleans: A prayer for patience from Byron Scott and simplicity from Julian Wright doubles as a prayer for Chris Paul.

New York: The backcourt's thin and Nate Robinson's in a contract year.

Oklahoma City: Meaningful Spring games are likely a year away but the joy of discovery has yet to grow stale.

Orlando: The defense will be constant, there will be nights when the offense consists of nothing but layups, dunks, free throws, and open three-pointers, and we will wonder how the Magic ever lose.

Philadelphia: Marreese Speights gets a taste of his own importance and takes the steps to make himself physically capable of playing the volume of minutes his (offensive) talent demands.

Phoenix: As manifestation of a dry sense of humor, Steve Kerr trades for Marcus Landry.

Portland: Nate McMillan leverages his over-abundance of talent by raising the number of possessions per Trailbazer game.

Sacramento: Either Paul Westphal molds this motely collection of defenders into a recognizable resistance force or they're going to have to scramble to outscore the opposition every single night. Both scenarios are must-see.

San Antonio: The model franchise takes a final shot at a championship with its current core. I anticipate both a worthy effort and the coming reconstitution of the team.

Toronto: It's not the Wizards, but the Raptors who possess the highest degree of variability in the Eastern Conference. It's eminently plausible all the parts to fit together and things work according to plan but, with few overlapping parts, it could all far apart with a significant injury to almost anyone. Fourth with 48 wins? Eleventh with 32 wins? Neither would surprise me.

Utah: Kosta Koufos, darkhorse Most Improved Player candidate.

Washington: While learning on the job, JaVale McGee will do shocking things, and, not being a Wizards fan, the bad shocks won't get me down.

The TrueHoop Network 2009-10 Season Previews

TEAM	BLOGGERS SAY	WINS*
	Bret Lagree | Hoopinion "The Hawks have not built, nor do they appear to be building, a championship contender. ... Joe Johnson is poised to be a free agent in the summer of 2010. Johnson is not a franchise player, yet he's the Hawks' best player."	45
	Zach Lowe | CelticsHub "It seems reasonable to say anything short of an 18th championship would be a disappointment."	58
	Brett Hainline | Queen City Hoops "Great defense + equally bad offense = average. With an improving division around them, that equation does not get them their first playoff berth. But at least they won’t suck."	36
	Matt McHale | By the Horns "During the offseason, the Bulls lost free agent Ben Gordon, whom many people considered the team’s best or second-best player (after Derrick Rose). Memo to Chicago fans: Don’t sweat it. Seriously. Gordon will be replaced by John Salmons, who not only gave the Bulls almost as many points per game (18.3 versus 20.7) but was slightly more efficient in how he scored them."	43
	John Krolik | Cavs the Blog "After last season’s playoff heartbreak, Danny Ferry has changed up the equation ... However, Shaq could disrupt the delicate offensive and defensive chemistry the Cavaliers rode to 66 wins and the conference finals, despite the fact he will be the best player LeBron has ever played with if he continues to play like he did last season. The big question for the Cavs this season is whether they overreacted to two clutch 3s by Rashard Lewis, or made the risk they needed to take to finally get LeBron a ring."	61
	Rob Mahoney | The Two Man Game “'Rebuilding' teams seek financial flexibility and the acquisition of young, productive assets. Quality squads amass veteran talent, no matter the cost, in pursuit of a title. Defying all logic, the Mavs have simultaneously moved in both directions."	50
	Jeremy Wagner | Roundball Mining Company "The only players still on the roster who exceeded expectations in 2008-09 were Nene and Birdman. It is reasonable to expect every member of the Nuggets, other than thirty-something Chauncey Billups, to improve."	53
	Dan Feldman | PistonPowered "However the minutes shake out between Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown and Ben Wallace, they won’t be as good as Rasheed Wallace. But Sheed wasn’t that great last year. He looked old and disinterested, so the drop here won’t be too steep."	36
	Rasheed Malek |Warriors World "Under the ownership of Chris Cohan, the Warriors have made the playoffs exactly one time and have gone through numerous coaches, players and executives. Going into this season, Larry Riley is the man in charge taking over for Chris Mullin."	28
	Anup Shah and Brody Rollins | Rockets Buzz "The speed revolution has overtaken some of basketball’s peers, most notably football ... Is basketball headed in the same direction? [Aaron] Brooks provides an excellent case study. Beginning the year as the Rockets number one threat on offense with Ron Artest’s departure and injuries to Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, Brooks will have every opportunity to prove that size really doesn’t matter."	39
	Jared Wade | Eight Points, Nine Seconds "It’s hard to believe that anything short of the postseason will remove the dark cloud over Conseco. ... Ultimately, it will come down to one thing: [Mike Jr.] Dunleavy’s knee."	32
	Kevin Arnovitz | ClipperBlog "[Blake] Griffin and [Eric] Gordon may not be saviors, but they’re something. Griffin’s skills and his tenacious work ethic (the guy runs up sand dunes in his free time) will be a boon to a team desperate for cultural overhaul. Gordon offers an enticing combination of spot-up shooting and forays into the paint. He finished third in true shooting percentage among starting off guards in his rookie campaign, something that can only help a team that ranked dead last in offensive efficiency last season."	32
	Kurt Helin | Forum Blue and Gold "God, is it good to be hated again."	64
	Chip Crain | 3 Shades of Blue "The 2009-10 version of the Grizzlies have put together a starting five where every player scored 30 points or more in a game last year. The oldest starter is only 28 years old (Zach Randolph) and the youngest won’t turn 22 until after the start of the season (O.J. Mayo). They are young, talented and hungry for success. So why do most people focus on the two players not on a rookie contract this season?"	20
	Matthew Bunch | Hot Hot Hoops "38.6 minutes. 30.2 points. 49.1 percent shooting. Five rebounds. 7.5 assists. 2.2 steals. 1.3 blocks. That’s what [Dwyane] Wade averaged last season. You’re going to keep that guy out of the playoffs? Good luck."	44
	Jeremy Schmidt | Bucksketball "If the Bucks get anything out of their three small forwards, if they can keep [Andrew] Bogut and [Michael] Redd healthy and if they get a season worthy of the number ten selection out of Brandon Jennings at the point, the playoffs will be within reach. But that’s a lot of ifs."	29
	Patrick Hodgdon | Howlin' T-Wolf "Ever since his arrival, David Kahn has had seemingly one mission, other than to look like the smartest guy in the room at every turn, and that is to get as much cap space for next summer as he possibly can. ... The obvious question lies in whether or not the Wolves will actually be able to lure one of the better free agent players to come to Minnesota."	23
	Mark Ginocchio and Sebastian Priuti | Nets are Scorching "Lingering doubts about Brooklyn could spoil any chance the Nets have of landing a top free agent next summer."	29
	Niall Doherty and Ryan Schwan | Hornets247 "Enter Emeka Okafor. He’s a near match to a healthy Chandler, is more durable, and doesn’t look like he’s having muscle spasms when making a post move."	47
	Mike Kurylo | Knickerblogger "2010 could be New York's return to winning."	31
	Royce Young | Daily Thunder "The Thunder may not win more than half their games, but with over half the roster unable to get an alcoholic beverage still, steady improvement and progression is the name of the game."	34
	Zach McCann | Orlando Magic Daily "Take away either Hedo Turkoglu or Courtney Lee and the Magic aren’t getting to face the Lakers in the Finals. No way. But does that mean the Magic were wrong to let them go? Were the Magic foolish to allow a borderline All-Star and a possible future All-Star leave the team when both clearly wanted to stay in Orlando? Absolutely not. I believe the Magic are an entirely better team than they were four months ago."	59
	Carey R. Smith | Philadunkia "The travesty of a deal that Billy King gave to Samuel Dalembert remains easily one of the worst contracts in NBA history. Hopefully this season Dalembert, his inflated self-worth and his contract will be dealt for a couple of expiring contracts and some much-needed cap space."	39
	Michael Schwartz | Valley of the Suns "Two years ago the Suns were chic championship picks. Last year, the Suns were (accurately) thought to be a fringe playoff team. This year there are almost no expectations outside of their locker room. ... There will be no mistaking what the Suns are this season: a lightning-speed team that will score points in bunches and likely give them up almost as quickly while struggling badly on the boards. But they will once again be the most exciting team in basketball."	46
	Max Handelman | Beyond Bowie "The Blazers effectively bumbled their way to a 54-win season despite a mediocre performance from Greg Oden, the loss of Martell Webster for the season, and at times starting three rookies. This team is only getting better, kids."	53
	Zach Harper | Cowbell Kingdom "Enter Tyreke Evans -- a bulldozer-sized menace who will test the strength of every team’s defense at its entry point. He immediately creates matchup problems against teams with traditional point guards and will look to have a similar impact as fellow Memphis alum, Derrick Rose."	22
	Timothy Varner | 48 Minutes of Hell During the Celtics heyday, Red Auerbach boasted a winning percentage of .719. In the modern era, Pat Riley’s Showtime Lakers played to the tune of .733. Phil Jackson’s Jordan Bulls dominated the 90s with an otherworldly percentage of .771. Jackson’s three-peat Lakers? .735. In his 12 seasons with San Antonio, Gregg Popovich, whose cynical disdain for the regular season runs more than skin deep, has, nevertheless, posted a winning percentage of .707. That’s the company the Spurs keep. What should we expect this season? 58 wins and a run at the title. Same as every other year."	55
	RaptorsRepublic "How is a rookie(ish) head coach going to integrate nine new players into a new system with two new assistant coaches?"	41
	Spencer Ryan Hall | Salt City Hoops "With young Wesley Matthews providing the good luck charm, Boozer in a contract year, Deron Williams with a chip on his shoulder, and a new longer-haired version of Andrei Kirilenko the Jazz have no reason to be anything other than beastly this season. And I mean that in a good way. Every prediction from the Jazz camp, however, comes with the ominous caveat 'If we can stay healthy.'"	46
	Kyle Weidie | Truth About It "Flip Saunders has never gotten a team 'there.' That worn out cliché always runs rampant, plaguing almost every coach who hasn’t won … until they win. Red Auerbach (647), Larry Brown (1,900), and Dick Motta (738) all took their lumps before winning a championship (games coached before title season). Don’t be surprised when what you think is impossible becomes a reality. ... 2010 is the Chinese Year of the Tiger. Factor in Gilbert Arenas’ stomach tattoo and the fact that the Wizards play their home games in D.C.’s Chinatown, and all the cards are in place."	42
* As predicted by a consensus of all TrueHoop Network bloggers.

TrueHoop Network 2009-10 Season Preview: Atlanta Hawks

CRYSTAL BALL
The consensus prediction of the TrueHoop Network bloggers...and the best guess from Hoopinion.

Crowd Says: 45-37
Hoopinion Says: 44-38

YES WE CAN!
The sun is out. The seas have parted. The basketball gods are shining upon us!

It’s tempting, in the transactional flurry of the off-season, to assume that if a team’s not busy getting better, it’s getting worse. When all that exists is potential, reward can overshadow risk and the act of reconstituting a 47-win team fails to capture the imagination.

Even a partisan fan, given the choice between the obvious appeal of believing that Jamal Crawford directly replaces the 575 unproductive minutes of the players for whom he was traded (Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton) rather than Flip Murray’s 1975 minutes of excellent production, Mike Bibby will age gracefully, the team’s 3-point shooting will be as bountiful and accurate as in 2008-09, that Jeff Teague is historically unique in being capable of contributing as a rookie point guard drafted outside the lottery, there will be more (and/or better) shots for the young frontcourt of Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia will stay healthy for a second consecutive season, and, if he doesn’t, that Joe Smith will provide a better insurance policy than Solomon Jones would will all come true and vault the Hawks into contention for the Eastern Conference championship, or, a more sober appraisal of the objective evidence that the 2009-10 team will look an awful lot like the 2008-09 team, will fall out of the divisional race fairly early but will fight to the end for the fourth seed and its accompanying home court advantage, will win or lose a close first-round series, and, if the former occurs, might even win a second-round playoff game can be excused for feeling dissatisfied with an off-season agenda that first did no harm.

The Hawks have not built, nor do they appear to be building, a championship contender. Instead, a bifurcated ownership group, former GM Billy Knight, Mike Woodson, and current GM Rick Sund have worked (if not always together) to assemble the best Hawks team in a decade, a 44 to 50-win squad almost certain to make the playoffs in the East for a third consecutive season. The franchise’s barren years were too recent and lasted too long for Hawks fans to feel wholly impatient about this new approach.

NO YOU WON’T
A rousing dissent from a rival blogger.

They've put a lot of time and hard work into becoming the runner-up to third place in the NBA. And that's just sad. (Matt Moore)

ALL-A-TWITTER
A 140-character insight into the soul of the team.

@zaza27: I’m glad it worked out and glad to be part of this team. And one more thing:HAWKS FANS U R THE BEST. Thanks for all the support. Love yo
7:09 PM Jul 9th

Already a beloved fashion plate, rebounder, and committer of hard fouls, Zaza Pachulia secures his fan favorite status on the occasion of signing his new, four-year, $19 million contract. Hawks fans love yo, too, Zaza. They love yo, too.

ON THE RECORD
Single best quote concerning the team during the last 12 months.

Mike Bibby, speaking to Mike Woodson on the subject of Josh Smith during the first half Game 7 of the Heat series as reported by Sekou Smith:

“If you don’t want me to throw to him put him somewhere else. He’s wide
[@*&$percent] open. Wide open. What do you want me to do? If you don’t want
him shooting that then put him somewhere else. You tell him.”

By winning the first-round playoff series, Mike Woodson assured his return to the Hawks’ sideline this year. By pointing out a long-standing conceptual flaw in the Hawks’ half-court spacing, Mike Bibby assured himself a more welcome reception than a 31-year-old point guard who can’t play defense would expect to receive upon being re-signed for three more years.

THE 2008-09 ALMANAC
Some key stats from last season.

Offense: 10th
Defense: 12th
Pace: 24th

Team Factor Strength(s): Free Throws Allowed (5th), Turnovers (6th tied)
Team Factor Weakness(es): Defensive Rebounding (24th)

The Hawks didn’t win 10 more games in 2008-09 than they did in 2007-08 by playing significantly better defense (They improved from slightly below average to slightly above average.) or by rebounding better (Josh Childress’s departure wasn’t as significant a loss as some, this observer included, feared but his offensive rebounding wasn’t adequately replaced.) but by improving significantly in the fundamental area most often taken for granted: making shots. The 2007-08 Hawks made 47.3 percent of their 2-point shots. The 2008-09 Hawks made 49 percent of their 2-point attempts. That helped, but more importantly, the Hawks went from attempting one out of every six field goals from beyond the arc in 2007-08 and making 35.6 percent of them to attempting one out of every four field goals from beyond the arc in 2008-09 and making 36.6 percent of them. The improvement was a team effort. Mike Bibby and Josh Smith bettered their career 3-point field goal percentages. Flip Murray, Maurice Evans, and Marvin Williams each set career highs in 3-pointers made, attempted, and 3-point field goal percentage. Whether this was a sustainable, systemic improvement or just a confluence of unlikely performances will go a long way toward determining whether the Hawks’ win total in 2009-10 is closer to 47 or 37.

THE PLAY
Down a single point with 9.2 seconds to play in a must-win game. What's the play?

On a decisive possession it’s widely known that Joe Johnson will get the ball on the left wing, usually via a hand-off or short entry pass from Mike Bibby. After delivering the ball, Bibby rotates behind the 3-point line and stations himself at the top of the key. Marvin Williams stands behind the 3-point line in the right-hand corner. Al Horford settles in on the right baseline, 15-to-18 feet from the basket. Josh Smith stands just inside the 3-point line on the wing opposite Johnson as Joe surveys the defense, watching it rotate to the strong side, toward himself and away from Smith. With all that as a given, what I’d like to see change this year is as follows: As Johnson puts the ball on the floor, initiating a double-team, Smith cuts hard to the basket, Horford moves to the high post, giving Johnson four good options with each of his four teammates in a dangerous offensive position with only three defenders to account for them instead of the two bad options (Johnson forcing a runner against at least two defenders or Smith, the league’s worst 2-point jump shooter, standing wide open 20 feet from the basket) to which Hawks fans have grown accustomed.

THE PEOPLE’S CHOICE
The fan favorite the crowd will be chanting for to see some action.

Rookie point guards generally struggle. Rookie point guards drafted outside the lottery, whether because they’re typically lesser prospects, get drafted by better teams, or a combination of those two factors are even more likely to struggle. Longing, though, can outweigh rational thought. It’s been 10 years since Jason Terry gave Hawks fans a small guard of such promise as Jeff Teague. With the aborted Acie Law IV era a fresh, frustrating memory, expect a lot of “Yes, but...” arguments for playing Teague ahead of the competent veteran troika of Bibby, Johnson, and Crawford.

IF YOU’RE WATCHING THE BOTTOM LINE, YOU’RE WATCHING THIS
The single biggest spreadsheet issue hanging over the team.

Joe Johnson is poised to be a free agent in the summer of 2010. Johnson is not a franchise player yet he’s the Hawks’ best player. With Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Jamal Crawford, Jeff Teague, and Maurice Evans (player option) under contract for 2010 and all of those guys save Crawford and Evans signed beyond 2010, the Hawks, barring a significant trade, don't figure to have $15-16 million to spend on a shooting guard who serves as the team’s primary offensive option. That fact and the organization’s aversion to change suggest that Johnson will receive another generous offer from the club this summer. If building around a fringe All-Star doesn’t give the front office pause, the mileage on Johnson’s legs should. He’s finished in the top 4 of the league in minutes played every season since 2003-04, with the exception of the 2006-07 season when he averaged a career high 41.4 minutes over 57 games before an injury ended his season in early March.

More Previews Roll In

Kelly Dwyer previews the Hawks for Ball Don't Lie:

Atlanta will be better in 2009-10, but so will the rest of the East. And though the team has no real major weakness save for possibly giving up too many offensive rebounds, the Hawks will struggle to keep up. Especially if they swoon again. Especially if the inconsistency sustains. This is an above-average team in all areas, but the Hawks rarely play like it. It's all peaks and valleys.

That isn't to say there isn't quality, there. I'm just not that enticed by the upside.

It's also Hawks day at Nets Are Scorching as Mark Ginochhio offers the latest position-by-position comparison of the Nets and an Eastern Conference foe.

SI.com's ever-popular "anonymous scout" feature on the Hawks is out and seems more accurate and informed than normal.

The Baseline Sees All: Atlanta Hawks

Bethlehem Shoals provides catnip for the regular-season return of Hawk Str8Talk:

But—and this might just be a function of the Hawks glut of could-bes or the system they employ—I can't be the only person who feels like Horford can do more. He seems capable of some 20/10 output, maybe even becoming more of a defensive playmaker. I know, he already nearly averages a double-double and is perfectly admirable going the other way. However, you've seen it just as well as I have: employing a meaningless cliche only because sometimes it's all that makes sense, Horford looks like a special player frequently enough that you wonder. After his rookie year, I expected a major leap. He held steady, and things worked out, but I want a breakout.

There's good stuff about Josh Smith, Teague, and Zaza and reasonable doubts about Jamal Crawford in there as well.

Atlanta Hawks NBA TV Season Preview Tonight

NBA TV has been running team-by-team previews since Wednesday* all which certainly served as mere prelude to tonight's Atlanta Hawks episode, airing at 8pm ET.

A sneak peek of the "Secret Scout" segment (56 seconds) is available here.

*I haven't caught any of them yet. Good? Bad? Indifferent?

FanHouse: Moore: Josh Smith, the Talisman of the Atlanta Hawks

I'm skipping most of the Hawks previews being published around the web on 1) the principle of not saying anything when I don't have something nice to say and 2) anyone who wants to read about Marvin Williams "regressing" last year or how the Hawks replaced a 12.2 PPG sixth-man with a 19.7 PPG sixth-man (And, hey, that means they're seven-and-a-half points better right there, right?) probably doesn't want advice from me in the first place.

And there I've gone and violated #1.

Here's a good season preview piece on Josh Smith written by Matt Moore of FanHouse and Hardwood Paroxysm fame:

This year, as every year, is an opportunity for Smith to make that jump to elite. And we're sorry if we keep saying it over and over again, but there's nowhere else to go. Josh Smith is too good, too talented, too awesome to give up, and too flawed, too mercurial, too inconsistent not to criticize. Our frustration stems not from what Smith isn't doing for us, but the longing for the fulfillment of what he teases every time he steps on the floor. Everyone wants Smith to be everything he can be. We're just not sure what that is yet.

But it does make Josh Smith the talisman of the Atlanta Hawks.

Items of Interest From Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10

Consider this look at the fruits of the SCHOENE projection system another endorsement of the finest professional basketball annual published so far.

Positives

• Jamal Crawford is projected to have a higher individual defensive rating than he posted either of the last two years in New York and Golden State. He's not a good defender but in the context of a competent team defense it's reasonable to assume that he won't be as bad.
• Projects a bounce-back for Joe Johnson's field goal shooting from 2008-09 levels.
• Projects a full return to 06-07 and 07-08 levels of productivity for Josh Smith with the only serious change in the shape of his performance manifesting itself in fewer rebounds and turnovers.
• Jeff Teague's most similar player: Mo Williams. That's promising long-term, but remember Mo's rookie season. Next three Teague comps: Smush Parker, Jay Williams, OJ Mayo.

Negatives

• SCHOENE is really down on Bibby, judging his 2PTFG% and 3PTFG% as set to fall and his turnover rate to rise. Diminish those two skills (making shots and not turning the ball over) and Bibby doesn't have much left to offer.
• Projects a decline in Joe Smith's usage rate, TS%, rebound rate, and block rate from his performance in Cleveland, Chicago, and Oklahoma City over the past two seasons.
• The Josh Childress box offers a sobering reminder of what the Hawks are missing be it from Childress himself or from equivalent value garnered via trading his rights.

Negative on the surface but likely really a positive

• The SCHOENE projection system doesn't treat Marvin Williams' three-point shooting as a new skill. I wouldn't be surprised if he shot worse than 35.5% from beyond the arc this year. I would be surprised if he sank to the depths projected: 30.1 3PTFG%.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10: Available Now

Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle (and others) have written a hell of an annual and it's now available for download (print edition coming soon, click the link for details) for the ridiculously low price of $9.95. You'll learn things from this book, it will stimulate original thoughts of your own, and there's more than enough content to last you through the dog days of pre-season.

Best of all, for regular Hoopinion readers, only one paragraph of one page of the Hawks chapter is taken up by familiar cant.

I'm terribly proud to be a tiny part of this book and encourage everyone with a jones for serious, accessible analysis to check out the book. If I don't convince you, try the free samples.

• Thunder player comments
• Rockets team essay

Celtics Hub: Should We Fear Them: The Hawks

Zach Lowe provides a thorough* analysis** from an informed outsider's perspective.

*I'm still not comfortable with having become Flip Murray's most unlikely advocate so Zach makes me feel a little less lonely on that front.

**I expect the true impact of Jamal Crawford to fall somewhere between that suggested here and that suggested daily in the AJC. Am I the only that thinks that Jamal Crawford's training camp success could be attributed, in part, to his being guarded by Mike Bibby?

ESPN.com: Marc Stein Believes; John Hollinger Is Tempered

In the inaugural edition of his 2009-10 NBA power rankings Marc Stein positions himself unequivocally in the zone of positivity regarding the Hawks, ranking them 9th and offering the following appraisal:

The Hawks are going to be better. They haven't improved enough to worry the elites, but keeping Bibby, Pachulia and Marvin Williams and adding Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith seals them as No. 4 in the East.

John Hollinger's outlook is similar to that which I've advanced this summer: 44 wins and 4th in the East:

The Hawks bring back the same team that won 47 games a year ago, with a few upgrades: Teague offers a vast improvement over the departed Law as a fourth guard, and Joe Smith provides a fourth big man that simply didn't exist a year ago.

On paper, all that should make the Hawks a better team than a year ago, but not so fast. Crawford is a better player than Murray if you're comparing careers, but he'll be hard-pressed to match the season Murray put together a year ago. Similarly, Pachulia and Bibby may also struggle to match their solid 2008-09 campaigns.

And the Hawks aren't as youthful as they once were. While they still own three 23-year-olds in the frontcourt, the four veteran backcourt players are 31, 30, 29 and 28; additionally, Smith is 34 and Pachulia's listed age of 25 is only believable if you use a 500-day calendar.

Between the limited scope for improvement and the lack of star power, it seems the Hawks shouldn't be much worse than a year ago … but neither should they be any better. It's quite possible they'll finish this season in the exact same position as last season -- at the top of the East's pretender heap, but miles away from the ruling Cleveland-Boston-Orlando trinity.

The emphasis is mine. Great minds and all that.

Sekou Smith Gets Mike Woodson To Open Up

The highlight of my Sunday morning sitting in the media center at East Lake was reading a sports section chock full of Hawks news. Training camp hasn't (quite) started yet but Sekou Smith revealed himself to be in mid-season form. I'm of the opinion that Smith does a great job at a job I don't envy. His ability to write for a general audience and provide useful information for serious fans is an achievement I don't even attempt to match, operating as I do, under the assumption that anyone who shows up here (and stays for any length of time) has a firm grasp of the fundamental issues at hand. Then there's the evidence that Smith reads the comments on his blog posts, demonstrating a degree of patience and tolerance from which I could learn.

In summary, here's what I learned from reading Smith Sunday morning...

• Mike Woodson intends on playing Jeff Teague.
• Woodson also hopes not to run Joe Johnson into the ground before Christmas.
• Teague and Crawford will likely take minutes away from Maurice Evans as Woodson plans to play three guards together regularly.
• Woodson isn't planning on playing more than four guys in the regular frontcourt rotation.
• Woodson is talking about pushing the tempo and addressing last season's dreadful free throw shooting.

Each of those tidbits could fairly be categorized as positive news. Actions will speak louder than words, of course, and no one expects the head coach to express himself in raw, pessimistic terms on the eve of training camp but the quotes culled by Smith seem more honest than rote and, I believe, provide real insight. Only the absence of a mention about the need to improve the team's rebounding gnaws at this reader but it's a small worry and more than made up for by the feeling of excitement for the approaching basketball season.

Basketball-Reference.com Blog: Early Win Shares-Projected 2009-10 Standings

I would look at these, as the title indicates, as standings predictions rather than win predictions. Or as Neil Paine puts it:

...remember that these projections will be unrealistically close to the mean for players, teams, and playing time numbers, because of the heavy degree of regression being used.

The Hawks are 9th in the projected standings. The distribution of minutes in Paine's projections is more conservative than what I used to project the Hawks to 43 wins 10 weeks ago (before the acquisitions of Joe Smith and Jason Collins).

I think we can all agree that if Mario West, Randolph Morris, and Jason Collins combine to play as many minutes as Zaza Pachulia and Joe Smith, then this season will be an uphill battle.

Converting Paine's win share rates to the minutes I used previously and adding Smith and Collins to the mix gives the Hawks 39.6 projected wins. With the exceptions of Josh Smith and Jeff Teague (interesting exceptions in that I'm high on both those guys) my rough approximations of win share rates were more optimistic than those in this more comprehensive effort.

Rare proof of optimism at Hoopinion.

NYTimes.com: Beck: Replacement Refs? A Look Back at 1995

Howard Beck remembers the last time the NBA locked out the refs:

“They need five of these guys to equal one of the regular refs,” Charles Oakley, the former Knicks bruiser, complained in 1995. He described the replacements in one word: “Terrible.”

On the night the regular referees returned, after a 68-day standoff, some players could hardly contain their joy.

“The real refs are back?” the Washington Bullets’ Chris Webber said. “Hallelujah.”

Expect the replacement referees to be inconsistent in different ways and their inconsistency to indicate, perhaps, some ways in which the league wants games officiated differently. Not that the lockout isn't primarily about money and power. Nor that the better replacement refs won't eventually be assimilated:

17 of the N.B.A.’s current referees began as replacements. That group that includes some of the league’s most respected referees, as well as some of its most controversial.

Joey Crawford joined the N.B.A. during a strike in 1977. Danny Crawford, Ken Mauer, Eddie F. Rush and Derrick Stafford got their start during a lockout in 1983. Twelve others, including Bill Kennedy and Leon Wood, broke into the N.B.A. during the 1995 lockout.

What I'm Looking For

What is the argument to support the opinion that the Hawks will win more games than last year?

AJC.com: Smith: Crawford Makes a Great First Impression

Sekou Smith quotes my second favorite source*, "a visiting pro from another NBA Team":

"They’re going to be (expletive) good this year. You throw JC and Joe Smith and this kid [Jeff] Teague, and they’ve got some wrinkles now that they didn’t have last season. They were already a dangerous team and now they’re really dangerous. And knowing these fans down here and what they like, they’re going to love the style this team can play. They’re going to love JC."

*After "an anonymous scout"

Wrinkles, eh?

More like reputations.

JAMAL CRAWFORD (career) vs. FLIP MURRAY (08-09)

Name	Pts/36	FGA/36	TS%	eFG%	A/36	TO/36
Crawford	16.8	14.6	51.7	46.9	4.6	2.3
Murray	17.8	14.5	54.3	50.1	2.9	2.3

Jamal Crawford is a better basketball player than Flip Murray but Flip Murray was a better basketball player than Flip Murray last year. Said another way, Crawford is extremely likely to be a better player than Flip Murray in 2009-10. Jamal Crawford is not very likely to a better player in 2009-10 than Flip Murray was in 2008-09. In very rough terms, the Hawks figure to add an extra assist every 21 minutes at the cost of an extra missed shot every 51 minutes. Plus the difference between Murray's average defense and Crawford's abominable defense.

JOE SMITH (career) vs. ZAZA PACHULIA (career)

Name	OR%	DR%	PTS/36	TS%	BS/36
Smith	10.3%	17.6%	15.0	51.5%	1.2
Pachulia	12.1%	19.0%	13.0	53.7%	0.6

At this point in his career, Joe Smith projects to offer little improvement over Zaza Pachulia, and what improvement Smith might reasonably offer--an extra point a game, a extra blocked shot every three or four games--will come at the expense of rebounds, especially offensive rebounds, which, unless everyone again has a career season from beyond the three-point line, figure to be a more important factor in 2009-10 than they were in 2008-09 when the Hawks finished a disappointing 19th in the league in offensive rebound rate.

But even if Smith is a similar player to Pachulia* whose skills don't complement his future teammates as well as do Pachulia's, the first 675 minutes Smith plays will be as a direct replacement for Solomon Jones. That's something positive.

JOE SMITH (08-09) vs. SOLOMON JONES (08-09)

Name	OR%	DR%	PTS/36	TS%	BS/36
Smith	9.5%	18.3%	12.2	50.7%	1.3
Jones	9.1%	15.6%	10.0	65.5%	1.8

Though Jones put up superficially decent numbers in limited minutes last season, Smith figures to surpass that production while playing non-garbage time minutes and providing much, much, much better defense both before and after an opponent's shot goes up.

*And he is. Joe Smith is a backup center who plays adequate position defense. Any extra blocks he gets are simply a function of his reach compared to Pachulia's.

Rick Sund undeniably made good decisions in replacing Solomon Jones with a better player and not expecting Flip Murray to replicate his career year. Those decisions, though, do not in and of themselves make the team better so much as they increased the chances of the team not getting worse. The positive impact of the difference between Smith and Jones will be reduced every time Smith takes minutes away from Pachulia, Al Horford, or Josh Smith.

Jamal Crawford is a better passer than Flip Murray but he'll shoot just as often thus continuing to limit touches for Williams and Horford. Crawford's inadequate defense will make it more difficult for Mike Woodson to hide Mike Bibby defensively.

If the Hawks are better in 2009-10 (and I'm not convinced they won't be) it will be because Williams, Horford, and Josh Smith stay healthy and shore up the defense for 82 games, because Jeff Teague plays just well enough to allow Woodson to feel he can rest Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby with limited risk, and because Josh Smith pulls his significant and disparate talents together. Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith are nice rotation players. They are not difference makers when added to a 47-win team.