Initial Feedback: Jason Collins Scored a Basket

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players

Jeff Teague: You would think with Derrick Rose missing extended time due to injury, this would be an opportunity for Teague to make an imprint on a game. The stats were not terrible: 13 points on 5-for-14 shooting with 8 assists and only 2 turnovers. These contributions were nearly matched by Chicago's third-string point guard, John Lucas. 5/10

Joe Johnson: Again, with Chicago's superstar out of action, you would expect Atlanta's franchise player to feast in his absence. Joe went on a diet with 12 points on 5-for-11 shooting with 6 assists. Said after the game that some of his teammates still do not know their roles. Note to Joe Johnson: Your role is to score. 3/10

Josh Smith: Josh has been one of the hottest players in the NBA since the All-Star break. His increased production can be attributed to an increase in scoring chances close to the basket. However, this by no means indicates that Josh has abandoned his efforts to shoot himself out of a career-long slump from 16-feet-and-out. Shooting 3-for-10 on long jumpers is actually an ok night for Josh. 5/10

Zaza Pachulia: Sat on the bench and watched Jamal Crawford shoot the Hawks to a 2nd round playoff exit against the Bulls last year when the team really needed a mobile big man to counter Chicago's front court depth. More about available depth in a moment. 4/10

Kirk Hinrich: Let's hope the hamstring he tweaked while playing 44 minutes in Sunday's epic against Utah doesn't become a nagging issue. 2/10

Marvin Williams: Bringing Marvin off the bench really allows for an adjustment in expectations. For a bench player, 10 points and 5 rebounds are valuable contributions. 4/10

Tracy McGrady: Did not set the world on fire in 5 minutes of court time. Incomplete

Jerry Stackhouse: Did not set the world on fire in 6 minutes of court time. Incomplete

Willie Green: The 4th overtime hero didn't have it tonight, scoring 4 points on 1-of-6 shooting in 21 minutes. 2/10

Ivan Johnson: After scoring 17 points on perfect 7-for-7 shooting in just 23 minutes in Tuesday's loss to Milwaukee, Larry Drew rewarded Ivan with 11 minutes against the Bulls. Ivan Johnson has outplayed All-Star centers this year. Is the Hawks organization trying to hide him from potential bidders this summer? 3/10

Jason Collins: Jason Collins scored a basket. 1/10

The head coach

Drew probably wishes the opposition was coached by Tyrone Corbin every time the Hawks play. 1/10

A thought regarding the opposition

The Bulls may not get past the Heat again in this year's playoffs. The Bulls may wish they had a better player than Carlos Boozer to show for all the cap space they have invested in him. But you can't question that the Bulls get the most out of what they have.

Initial Feedback: Volume Shooting Almost Works

By Buddy Grizzard

Initial feedback: A completely subjective response to the events of the game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Players
Joe Johnson: Left the game with 2:27 to play in the third and did not return due to a knee injury. Had 12 points on 5-for-11 shooting, 4 assists and 2 rebounds in 26 minutes. Also had the worst +/- on the team at -20 for the game. 4/10

Jeff Teague: Played only 18 minutes after Jannero Pargo got hot in the third quarter and stayed in for the entire 4th. Had 6 points, 1 assist and two turnovers and was -13 in those 18 minutes. 2/10

Willie Green: Started, played 18 minutes and had 6 points on 50% shooting from the field but also was not a part of the third quarter crew that played the entire 4th. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: Not averaging a double-double as a starter but gives steady, unspectacular production. In this game he provided 8 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks in 31 minutes and was part of the unit that got the Bulls lead down to 5 in the fourth quarter but couldn't come all the way back. 5/10

Josh Smith: The numbers looked good: 17 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in 43 minutes. But Smoove shot only 7-for-21, all of his points coming in the paint as he went 0-for-8 on jumpers. 5/10

Jannero Pargo: The Hawks were unable to re-sign Jamal Crawford in the off-season and instead replaced him with streak-shooter-by-committee. Tonight's contributor was Jannero Pargo, a player absurdly listed at 6-foot-1 who does not deserve the designation "point guard." Pargo's 19 points were flashy as he shot the team to within 6 with 4 threes over the game's final 14 minutes. But his ball handling in the 4th quarter? Not so flashy. He started off the 4th with a heat-check three that missed the entire rim, followed with a bad pass straight to noted passing-lane disruptor Kyle Korver, dribbled out the clock and missed a layup, then dribbled into a triple-team on the baseline and pelted it out of bounds off Smoove. 4/10

Kirk Hinrich: The Hawks are obviously playing Kirk a lot of minutes in an effort to get him in game shape and create some sort of trade value (lest the team receive little in return for the pair of first-round draft picks it traded away to acquire him). But 5 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in 30 minutes from one of your primary point guards is not going to win you a lot of games in the meantime. 3/10

Tracy McGrady: After complaining about playing time after the loss at Portland, played 22 minutes and gave customary production of 6 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Helped the fourth-quarter unit close to within 5, but the Bulls made enough tough shots with the clock winding down to keep this game just out of reach. Larry Drew would do well to communicate better with his players. He has enough problems without a player mutiny like the one McGrady helped orchestrate in Detroit last year. 4/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: With Pargo as the evening's designated streak shooter, Radmanovic took the night off, shooting 0-for-5 and going scoreless in 12 minutes, although he did collect 5 rebounds. The Hawks are 1-7 in the month of February in games in which Radmanovic plays at least 10 minutes. Two of the Hawks three wins this month came as Vlad averaged 3 minutes against Orlando and Indiana. 1/10

Ivan Johnson: During a stretch of 4 games from Jan. 29th through Feb. 4th, Ivan averaged 23.5 minutes, 9.5 points and almost 8 rebounds per game playing primarily as backup center. During that stretch, the Hawks out-rebounded 3 of 4 opponents. In the 7 games that followed, Ivan averaged 8 minutes, 3 points and 2 rebounds. In those 7 games, the Hawks were out-rebounded by 6 opponents. Against Chicago, Ivan played 2 minutes and the Hawks were out-rebounded 51-41. Grade: Incomplete

The head coach: The Hawks are 5th in the NBA in future committed salaries at over $244 million. To manage that quarter-billion dollar investment in personnel, the Hawks hired a coach with no previous NBA head coaching experience. He looks as in-over-his-head as you would imagine he would be. Since Lenny Wilkens retired, the Hawks have employed Lon Kruger, Terry Stotts, Mike Woodson and Larry Drew as head coaches. Once Drew is let go by the Hawks, it's hard to imagine that any head coach the organization has employed since 2000-2001 will be in any demand whatsoever by other NBA teams seeking to fill head coaching positions. 1/10

A thought regarding the opposition: With 3:42 to play in the third quarter, Tom Thibodeau angrily called timeout after a Zaza Pachulia run-out layup. As Thibs shouted at his team on the sideline, the scoreboard showed his team ahead by 19.

Initial Feedback: Three-and-a-half Games in Three Days? No Problem.

Buddy Grizzard wrote tonight's initial feedback.

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Josh Smith: The record will show that Josh Smith's outside shooting was a statistical outlier in this game. If you looked at the numbers on Smith's shooting from 16 feet-and-out, you can understand why we cringe. But if you insist on firing away despite the evidence you maybe ought not to, you will eventually have games like this. I could not have predicted the disparity in energy (in favor of the Hawks), the home team having played three games and four overtime periods in three nights. Josh Smith lead the way as the Hawks out-hustled the Bulls from the opening tip to the final buzzer. Some of his finishes were below the rim in the second half as his legs may have started to get heavy. But he did the job, even returning in what should have been garbage time in the fourth quarter as the bench's wobbly performance downgraded this win from a laugher to simply a dominating performance. Had a game high 25 points and 6 blocks to go with 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and only 1 turnover in a modest 34 minutes. 9/10

Marvin Williams: Played only 6 minutes due to an ankle sprain. Incomplete

Al Horford: Scored 14 points on 7-8 shooting, added 7 rebounds and 4 assists with only 1 turnover. Had a huge block on Deng as the Hawks outplayed the Bulls on both ends. Second on the team with a +/- of +29. 8/10

Joe Johnson: Played only a modest 31 minutes but definitely looked tired in the second half. Still lead the team at +35 as he scored 17 on 7/14 shooting and added 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals against 3 turnovers. I simply cannot account for how a player that has exerted so much effort over the last three nights can still help the Hawks out-hustle a deeper, more well-rested opponent. 8/10

Jeff Teague: Will the real Jeff Teague please stand up? Scored 12 on 6-for-8 shooting while adding 2 rebounds, 8 assists and 5 steals against zero turnovers. After listless performances in the previous two games, Teague had his swagger back. 8/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: The record will show that Vlad Rad's 5-for-5 night from three point range was NOT a statistical outlier. He was among the league leaders in three point shooting last season and good shooters will have these games, even after a series of off-shooting nights. I've observed that even when Vlad's shot is not falling, he's still hustling and getting involved in other ways. He did all of the above tonight in 28 minutes, playing significant minutes with the starting unit. 8/10

Willie Green: Scored 10 on 5-for-10 shooting but was on the floor when Chicago did most of what little damage they were able to do. He was -18 for the game. 6/10

Jannero Pargo: I've criticized Pargo for his lack of defensive speed but not defensive effort. The Bulls were so listless tonight that Pargo's defense looked credible. Still Pargo failed to contribute statistically on an 0-for-3 night in 18 minutes. 4/10

Ivan Johnson: About what you would expect from an unheralded rookie nobody had ever heard of two months ago. He traveled on his first touch, went 1-for-5 and had 2 turnovers. His biggest sin was that his play forced Josh Smith to re-enter the game during what should have been garbage time in the fourth quarter to ensure the Bulls didn't assemble a run. 2/10

Zaza Pachulia: Played more like he did in the playoffs last year given more minutes (20). Scored 6 and added 5 rebounds with only 1 turnover and two fouls. If you play him, he will produce. 6/10

Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Collins: Garbage minutes were rendered inconsequential by the lift Vlad provided. Incomplete

The head coach
After disasters on the road against Chicago and at home against short-handed Miami, I was starting to be of the opinion that Drew's career as the Hawks coach might end prematurely. But one thing you can judge coaches on is the way they get their players to respond after tough losses and how their teams handle adversity. The Hawks have earned that split against Miami and Chicago that I talked about previously, and the Hawks can once again hold their heads up and be mentioned among the Eastern Conference contenders. 8/10

Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com

Basketball Prospectus: Doolittle: Riffing on the Hawks' Defense

In his ongoing attempt to figure out the Hawks (good luck, fellow traveler on that road), Bradford Doolittle examines their early season defensive success from the United Center:

It's hard to judge the Hawks' defense based on the fourth quarter. The Bulls scored 34 points in the period after, again, putting up just 42 in the first three periods. Rose and Deng combined for 30 of those points, playing alongside Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik. It's not like Drew wasn't trying to force the ball out of Rose's hands, the Hawks just weren't able to do it. When they got overaggressive with trying to trap, Rose found the open guy, usually Deng. It's not like they weren't helping once Rose flashed into the lane. On a drive that tied the game with 9.9 seconds left, Rose lost Teague with a crossover and drove the right side of the lane. Josh Smith moved over to contest the shot and was in position with both hands raised. Smith of course is one of the league's most athletic players, a premier shot blocker who is six inches taller than Rose. However, the MVP simply went up and over Smith as if he wasn't there. There is no scheme, design or quantitative analysis than can explain it.

...

Despite the poor finish, the Hawks ended up holding the Bulls to .85 points per possession in the game, though the wild swings of the early season dropped them to third in Defensive Rating. There was nothing schematically that I saw to explain Atlanta's defensive success. We've seen in the past that Atlanta is capable of putting the screws to teams defensively as they did during last year's playoffs and perhaps Drew's insistence on that approach has simply gotten through. With no major personnel additions to explain the defensive improvement, it's the only explanation we really have. And it's not a good one. The Hawks have finished 14th and 15th on defense the last two years, respectively, and it's going to take more than six games to prove they have made any sort of leap.

The Hawks' defense is something to keep an eye on. That third spot behind the Heat and Bulls in the East seems to be up for grabs and a more committed Atlanta squad is certainly capable of grabbing it. I don't like their chances to do so based both on the track record of the team's core and the age of its bench. But as I am always compelled to say when writing about the Hawks, we've been wrong about them before.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is on sale.

HoopSpeak: Mason: Chicago goes to the half court trap to trip up the Hawks

Friend of the blog, Beckley Mason, on the turning point of the game:

Judging by the Atlanta Hawks' defensive energy and focus, you wouldn’t have guessed they were on the second game in a brutal back to back that began with the Heat. But with 7 minutes left in the third, Atlanta was in absolute control of the Chicago Bulls. The offense wasn’t exactly humming, but certainly grinding. Snappy ball-movement and running Joe Johnson in swooping circles around a series of screeners was giving the Bulls fits. When the Bulls’ aggressive big men hedged to Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford quickly slipped back door for alley-oops.

When a team is getting pounded, sage commentators intone that the team “needs to change something.” Really, sometimes a team only needs to make open shots, or take better care of the ball. Certainly either would have helped the Bulls, but it wasn’t just execution–the Hawks were taking it to them. They were beating them to loose balls, disrupting the Bulls already choppy offense and abusing the Bulls defensive philosophy with clever reads.

The Bulls won 61 games last season, and will win a whole bunch this year because night in and night out, they simply play harder and more aggressively than their competition.

So in an apparent effort to reclaim that identity, coach Tom Thibodeau unleashed a half court trap in the second half that dramatically shifted the flow of the game. With all those long and fast players, the Bulls second unit–which often includes Luol Deng– is a near perfect group for trapping.

But the Bulls debuted the trap with Carlos Boozer, of all people, on top. That’s because the goal wasn’t to get deflections and steals, but to divert the Hawks theretofore flowing offense into channels unaccustomed to handle the volume of offensive responsibility, and to burn precious seconds off the clock before the Hawks could initiate their offense.

Click through for video and further analysis.

Quote of the Day -- January 3, 2012

Al Horford on the dichotomy of a great team defensive performance (76 points allowed on 93 possessions) for the game as a whole and giving up 34 points on 23 possessions in the fourth quarter:

"We dominated them for most of the game. Just Derrick Rose happened."

Luol Deng and missed free throws played key roles, as well. The gameflow isn't pretty.

Initial Feedback: First Team To Seventy-Two Wins

Buddy Grizzard, who has formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com, wrote the initial feedback for tonight's game.

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Joe Johnson: After Tracy McGrady's quote following the win at Miami about fresh legs, I doubt either T-Mac or Joe will say the same following this fiasco. The Hawks clearly came out with a game plan to attack and take quick shots. Joe was hitting early but by the second quarter his J abandoned him. As the Hawks built their lead, Joe spent a lot of time covering Derrick Rose. Combined with the second game in as many nights against an elite opponent, you can understand why Joe looked tired by the end of this one. 4/10

Jeff Teague: This was Teague's chance to emerge as one of the top point guards in the Eastern Conference. You have to wonder if he read Larry Drew's quote saying Kirk Hinrich may start once he returns from injury. Teague looked so disinterested early on, and was so easily erased on picks all night, that Drew was forced to put Joe Johnson on Derek Rose for much of the first half. In the second half Drew hung Teague out to dry as Chicago isolated Rose at the top of the key over and over and let him run around Teague. On a 2-for-8 shooting night, given a chance to bail the Hawks out at the end, Jeff Teague missed two critical free throws. Questions about Teague's heart and desire are now inevitable. 3/10

Josh Smith: To understand Josh Smith's impact on this game is to recognize the disparity between the Hawks bench depth and Chicago's. Any time Josh went to the bench, Chicago attacked the basket relentlessly. The Hawks lead began to evaporate after Vladimir Radmanovic replaced Josh with 3:47 to play in the third. Josh interspersed the customarily ill-advised shots with strong post-ups and drives to the basket, but made enough jumpers to finish a respectable 6-for-13 from the field. He also had a game-high 14 rebounds. 7/10

Al Horford: Al Horford statistically had a decent night going 7-for-14 for 16 points and 7 boards as he posted up aggressively, attacked the basket and made an effort on defense. But he missed two critical free throws down the stretch in the fourth quarter as he joined Teague and Smith in shooting 50% from the free throw line for the game. 6/10

Marvin Williams: Marv started out on fire, attacking the basket, hitting from outside and playing aggressive defense. But after 3 early baskets Drew quickly subbed McGrady in for him with 5:07 to play in the first. McGrady's strong early season seems to have encouraged Drew to play Williams shorter minutes despite his own strong early season. 7/10

Tracy McGrady: One night after T-Mac’s statement game against Miami, where he buried the reigning Eastern Conference champs with three fourth-quarter threes, he had a mostly-ineffective 1-for-4 night for 2 points. Although he added 6 rebounds, he joined the rest of the bench unit in averaging a +/- around -9. All of the starters posted positive +/- numbers. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: After his huge fourth quarter three last night against Miami, Pargo hit another big one as the Hawks built their lead. But it would be his only basket of the night and he couldn’t stay in the same area code trying to guard Rose. 3/10

Willie Green: Green actually had a decent night shooting the ball going 2-for-4 for 4 points in only 8 minutes. But on a night when the Hawks could have used another strong bench performance, Drew clearly shortened his rotation due to the bench’s overall poor performance. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: Last night against Miami, Zaza entered the game in the fourth quarter with 10:51 to play and the Hawks trailing 71-70. After a layup (T-Mac assist) and a pair of free throws by Zaza, sandwiched around a Pargo 4-footer, Horford re-entered the game with 8:36 to play, the bench mob having delivered a 76-72 lead. Tonight, the Hawks' best bench player in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year played 8 ineffective minutes, going a scoreless 0-for-3 and grabbing one rebound. 2/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: After a hot shooting start to the season, Vlad has cooled down considerably, going 1-for-4 for 3 points in 13 minutes. He continues to show a decent overall floor game, chipping in a pair of assists, but as mentioned Chicago rallied when Vlad replaced Smith in the lineup. 3/10

The head coach
Larry Drew is quite capable of drawing up game winning plays. If you don’t believe me, see the evidence here:

http://nbaplaybook.com/category/atlanta-hawks/

He got a ton of credit for the zone defense that flustered the Miami Heat last night and contributed to an early statement win for the Hawks. Given the chance to build on that, the Hawks started strong against Chicago, mixing man-to-man with a 1-3-1 zone that forced the Bulls into a shot clock violation after their own timeout with 7:18 to play in the first. Seeing Teague’s poor body language and barely-existent defense against Rose, he made the kind of move veteran coaches make, putting Johnson, the Hawks best player, on Rose, the Bulls best player. This largely contributed to the huge lead the Hawks built.

But in the second half, Drew’s coaching fell apart. Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity was to do the same thing over and over and expect a different result. In the second half Drew allowed the Bulls to isolate Rose on Teague at the top of the key over and over and go around him. Teague played much better against Rose in the playoffs, but seeing his struggles in this game, Drew should have trapped Rose to make someone else beat the Hawks. On offense down the stretch, the Hawks reverted to iso-Joe, with zero offensive movement, expecting their worn-down leader to bail them out once again.

Speaking of late-game situations, Horford tied the game at 74-74 with 1-of-2 free throws with :07 to play. After Chicago called a 20-second timeout, I couldn’t tell if the Hawks were in zone or man or if Johnson just blew his assignment and left Deng wide open for a layup. After a Hawks timeout, Drew’s last chance play with 3 seconds remaining seemed to consist of an in-bounds pass to Al Horford three feet outside the three point line followed by a Joe Johnson air ball. 2/10

Chicago Bulls 93 Atlanta Hawks 73

Apologies to anyone who tried to read this recap or comment on a post during Blogger's 20+ hour downtime.

Boxscore

Gameflow

Hoopdata boxscore

Hawks fans can’t have anything nice.

The team’s streak of not winning more than one playoff series in a season since moving to Atlanta remains intact as does the desultory nature of their elimination from the playoffs. One has to go back to 1998* for an example of the Hawks losing their final playoff game by fewer than ten points. One has to go back to 1988 for an example of the Hawks scoring more than 92 points in their final playoff game. In each of the last three** seasons, the Hawks have been eliminated from the playoffs at home, scoring an average of 77 points and losing by an average of 14 and two-thirds points.

*Even then, the Hawks blew a six-point halftime lead as the Hornets hammered them to the tune of 56-41 in the second half.

**Go back four seasons, and you can include the 99-65 Game 7 loss in Boston. In the last Atlanta playoff appearance of the 1990s, the Hawks scored 66 points in New York. It’s basically pick-your-unappealing-end-point when it comes to Atlanta playoff exits.

It says something of the quality of the team’s regular season that watching the Hawks win 6 of their first 11 playoff games (while being outscored by 33 points) provided both pleasure and reasons for optimism. It says something of the experience of being a Hawks fan that a 20-point loss in the 12th playoff game could render both obsolete.

Jeff Teague, with his head coach finally given no choice but to play him, blossomed in this series, putting a performance that speaks volumes of his talent and provides an unexpected hope for the team’s improvement in 2011-12 (if applicable). Teague’s absence, first through coaching decision then through injury, for three-and-a-half quarters (Yes, Teague returned but he was not himself.) brought familiar flaws (roster construction, indifference to perimeter defense on the court and on the sideline) back to the surface.

Al Horford, on the day he earned well-deserved acclaim in the All-NBA voting, completed a dispiriting series wherein his friend and former teammate Joakim Noah’s defense clearly got the better of him. It’s no coincidence* that Horford’s two best games in the series came when the Hawks moved the ball and moved without the ball and he suffered when placed in isolation against one of the game’s premier defenders. The experience of watching Horford play out, in microcosm, Joe Johnson’s playoff career with the Hawks provides equal evidence of Horford’s status of the team’s best player* and the team’s dysfunction. Given the typical number of touches Horford receives in the post, one wonders if Larry Drew’s pre-game declaration, "A guy of his size and his ability, one area of improvement he really needs to make is his footwork," though true, is simply the Al Horford equivalent of needing to see more consistency from Jeff Teague.

*The Bulls used Noah (and Asik) against Horford throughout the series. For much of the second quarter of Game 6, Tom Thibodeau, defense obsessive, was perfectly fine with Kyle Korver guarding Joe Johnson. Horford may be the team’s best player by process of elimination (with Johnson’s defense and rebounding and Josh Smith’s shot selection being the respective eliminating factors) but he is the team’s best player.

Nor is it a coincidence that Carlos Boozer became an offensive force in this series once Jason Collins entered the starting lineup. The Hawks might not have made the second round without Collins but his one specific skill cannot be utilized in a variety of circumstances. Collins made the hobbled Boozer look athletic by comparison and could not have fairly been expected to close out on Boozer to 18 feet. Nor should Collins ever have been put in the position of being one of the baseline wing defenders in a 2-3 zone. If you have to close out on a shooter in the right corner with a defender from the left side of the floor (see Keith Bogans, 5:56 of the third quarter), you’ve got your tactics wrong.

Larry Drew never seemed to understand that Jamal Crawford was nearly as one-dimensional as Collins nor that Crawford’s great skill and his greatest liability overlapped so neatly with those of Joe Johnson. In Game 6, Drew’s hand was eventually forced by the injuries to Teague and Kirk Hinrich but his early, tactical decision to replace Teague with Crawford had the same result as it did in Game 5: Chicago extending their lead to double-digits in the first quarter.

Drew deserves credit both for the defensive gameplan against Orlando and his team’s offensive performances in Games 1 and 4 of the Chicago series. There is a very real chance that he learned on the job during his rookie season. On the other hand, in Game 6, his indiscriminate deployment of Collins and Crawford, his willingness not to play Jeff Teague, his decision to pull Al Horford from the game for the final 72 seconds of the first half* because he had committed two personal fouls, and the eight jump shots that Josh Smith attempted outside of 16 feet (5-37 in the series from that range) brought the criticisms Drew fairly received all season back to the fore.

*This didn’t change the outcome of the game but it was completely unnecessary as it was an elimination game, Horford finished the game with two fouls, and those all-important fourth quarter minutes Drew was presumably saving Horford for ended being played by Josh Powell and Hilton Armstrong anyway.

John Hollinger is optimistic about the Hawks’ future (though part of that comes from him being less convinced of Jeff Teague’s competence during the regular season than I) and, perhaps as the disappointment of another comprehensive defeat in the team’s last stand fades, I, too, will be able to focus on the possibility that a Teague/Hinrich backcourt can make a significant defensive difference, the possibility that Josh Smith overwhelmingly takes shots he’s likely to make, the possibility that Al Horford develops a post game good enough to draw a double-team and take full advantage of his passing skills, the possibility that Jamal Crawford is allowed to leave and all the possessions he uses go to more multi-faceted offensive players, the possibility that the Hawks receive anything of value in exchange for Marvin Williams (-33 in 108 minutes in the Chicago series), and the possibility that the Hawks find cheap, quality talent to fill out the bench. Some of those possibilities may come to pass when next we see professional basketball in Atlanta. Right now, they all feel very far away.

ESPN.com: 5-on-5: Breaking down Game 6 between Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks

This morning I join Michael Wallace, Jared Wade, John Krolik, and Braedan Ritter to discuss the Hawks/Bulls series and make predictions about Game 6:

5. In Thursday's Game 6 in Atlanta ...

A. The Bulls finally end this series.
B. The Hawks extend it to Game 7.

Bret LaGree, Hoopinion: B. The Hawks extend it to Game 7. At the risk of making my clean sweep of being wrong about the Hawks throughout the playoffs come to a painful end, I'll pick the Hawks. The home crowd may be enough to prop up Teague and Johnson and Horford and Smith even if the minutes catch up with them in the fourth quarter again.

Chicago Bulls 95 Atlanta Hawks 83

Boxscore

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
ATL	79	1.051	48.6	19.7	22.9		12.7
CHI	80	1.188	51.4	29.2	28.6		13.8

The problem with energy is that it's finite. The Atlanta Hawks fell behind early in Game 5, they fell behind by a lot: 15 points just 10:37 into the game. They worked hard to get all of that back before the third quarter ended but had nothing left in the tank to compete effectively in the fourth.

The Bulls played Taj Gibson and Omer Asik and Ronnie Brewer for the entirety of the competitive portion of the fourth quarter. In normal circumstances, they aren't collectively better than Jeff Teague and Josh Smith and Al Horford. When they're fresh (none of the Chicago trio had played more than 10 minutes in the game prior to the fourth quarter) and the Hawks players are exhausted, well, energy won out.

It's not a knock on Teague or Smith or Horford or Joe Johnson that they ran out of gas three-quarters of the way through the 93rd game of the season. They gave all they had. Nor is Larry Drew in line for criticism for riding his starters too hard. Only Zaza Pachulia provided any productive auxiliary minutes. Jason Collins didn't hurt the team when he was on the floor but he didn't help, either.

The same can't be said of Jamal Crawford. If anything, Drew played Crawford too much. That early 15-point deficit came about, in no small part, because Crawford allowed Keith Bogans to score roughly a week's worth of points (that would be a total of 8 points) on three consecutive possessions. Crawford provides no value if he's not making shots and he missed eight of his nine shots tonight, generally showing a greater interest in flopping post-release than even pretending to play defense.

Some joker on Chicago's stat crew inserted nine minutes, two points, and a rebound on Marvin Williams' line of the box score. I watched the game. I know better.

Even if Drew doesn't deserve criticism for the lack of options at his disposal tonight, a Hawks fan couldn't help, even while savoring the possibility of the Hawks winning the game, but watch Jeff Teague score 21 points on 11 shots, earn 7 assists, refrain from committing a turnover, and make Derrick Rose work for many of his 33 points, and feel angry about many, if not most, of 1674 minutes he watched Mike Bibby play for the Hawks this season. Some of the pleasure of this (modest-to-date) playoff run derives from the element of surprise. In no way, though, would a second-round playoff exit or a trip to the Conference finals be undermined had Teague (and, to a lesser extent, Pachulia) played as much during the regular season as his talent (especially relative to the alternatives) clearly warranted.

Atlanta Hawks 100 Chicago Bulls 88

Boxscore

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
CHI	87	1.011	42.9	26.9	29.3		13.8
ATL	88	1.136	51.9	19.8	21.9		14.8

I don't think it's a coincidence that, when the Atlanta Hawks scored on seven of eight offensive possessions between the 4:46 and 1:00 mark of the fourth quarter to transform a tie game into one they led by 11 points, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford never, save for the one scoreless possession, touched the ball inside the three-point line. Unlike Johnson and Crawford, Jeff Teague and Josh Smith and Al Horford each possess the skill and athleticism to attack the basket while simultaneously presenting the possibility of passing the ball to an open teammate should the opportunity arise. Johnson can accomplish the latter and Crawford the former but neither presents an unpredictable element to opposing defenses. Of course, Teague and Smith and Horford benefited from the attention Johnson* and Crawford drew from Chicago defenders who expected them to receive, hold, and shoot the ball so perhaps all those stagnant fourth quarters where the Hawks stubbornly struggled to score finally paid off with tonight's 33 point explosion.

*And the Hawks surely aren't tied without Johnson making 8 of 11 shots through the first three quarters, even though he gave back a few of those buckets at the defensive end.

The experience of Games 2 and 3 should caution any Hawks fan from expecting the Hawks to follow up with more of the successful same but not to enjoy performances as enjoyable as those in Games 1 and 4 would be foolish. It's because none among us know when the next good Hawks performance will appear or, at times, we wonder if the next good Hawks performance will appear that this competitive Conference Semifinal series seems a treat.

Which isn't to say that the Hawks played a perfect game. Josh Smith took six more jump shots. He made his first, and celebrated the fact, before missing the next five. Tellingly, none of the attempts came in the fourth quarter. The Hawks still look fifty-fifty at best to convert any given transition opportunity. Jamal Crawford remains an exploitable defender even for a mediocre offensive team having a difficult (Chicago's 25 point, 20 possession first quarter excluded) night. Carlos Boozer took advantage of extended minutes from Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia to contribute offensively for the first time since Game 1. The Bulls grabbed 29.3% of their possible offensive rebounds. Still, as in Game 1, the consistent, purposeful effort with which the team played superseded their flaws.

No Hawk exemplified that better than Smith. Despite the five (the sixth, excusably, came as the shot clock expired) possessions wasted with jumpers, Smith outplayed everyone else on the floor. Not just through his 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists but also with his defensive work on Luol Deng at the start of either half. If Deng had gotten the quality of look he's generally enjoyed when guarded by Marvin Williams in this series, Atlanta's imperfections might have been more damaging.

If Game 3 showed all that Derrick Rose could be, Game 4 showed all that the Bulls, at less than their best, can force him into having to be. With neither Deng nor Kyle Korver providing a third offensive option, Rose had to take on an even greater load than he did in his 27 shot, 9 free throw, 7 assist, 2 turnover performance in the previous game. Rose took 32 shots, 11 free throws, earned 10 assists, and committed 3 turnovers tonight. He earned every one of his 34 points and the degree to which the Hawks (most of the time) made him earn those points only confirms how exceptional his shot-making was in Game 3.

If the Hawks play together, if they move and move the ball, if they defend as a team, then Derrick Rose alone is not enough to beat them. If the Bulls can isolate the Hawks from each other offensively, if the Bulls can exploit the attention the Hawks must give Rose, then they will, obviously, control the game. Both scenarios have played out twice this series. Whichever we see twice more will decide the outcome.

Chicago Bulls 99 Atlanta Hawks 82

Boxscore

Gameflow

Hoopdata boxscore

Highlights

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
CHI	81	1.222	53.2	20.5	41.9		14.8
ATL	81	1.012	47.9	18.9	23.7		14.8

If Game 1 provided a vision of how the Atlanta Hawks could beat the Chicago Bulls--by making shots created through quick, precise player and ball movement and almost breaking even on the glass--then Game 3 reminded everyone of the vast gulf that separated the teams in the regular season.

Quite simply the Atlanta Hawks are not as good at defending or rebounding as the Chicago Bulls and, though Jeff Teague (21 points on 13 shots, three assists, one turnover, another 40+ minutes played) tried his damnedest not to make it true, the Atlanta Hawks do not have a player as good as Derrick Rose to overcome their weaknesses. Rose's 44-point explosion testified more to his skills than an Atlanta defensive breakdown. Sure, it would nice if the Hawks' defensive gameplan didn't include the opportunity for Rose to step into uncontested jump shots whenever he felt like it but there's little more Teague can do than prevent Rose from getting all the way from the rim. If Rose stops and elevates quickly and scores from eight-to-ten feet, that's to his credit. The same goes for Al Horford or Josh Smith challenging Rose in and around the paint. If he can get his shot off just before they arrive, or float his teardrop just over their outstretched arm, well, that's why he's the MVP.

NOTE: In the following paragraphs, assume the phrase "Jeff Teague excepted" throughout. Thank you.

Oh, how the Hawks could use a dynamic offensive performance. It needn't be MVP-caliber, just representative of an All-Star. The Hawks officially have two such players and a third of arguably equivalent ability. None of them put Chicago's defense under any sort of pressure last night. Johnson (10 points on 12 shots, three assists, two turnovers) was a tentative shell of the player who exploded in Game 1, often compounding his lack of effective work before receiving the ball by stopping the ball as soon he touched it. Al Horford (10 points on 12 shots, two assists) had the opposite problem in the first half. He rushed everything. The three composed shots he made in the second half might provide some hope for him to snap out of it going forward but arrived too late to have any impact on this game.

Josh Smith remains the greatest enigma. No Chicago player can keep him from getting to the basket (Smith made seven of eight shots in the paint and got to the free throw line eight times) but Smith show only an intermittent interest in the possibility. He missed six more shots from outside of 15 feet in this game, bringing his series total to 0-17 (that's 0%) and his playoff total to 8-51 (that's 18.6% after crediting him for the three three-pointers he made against Orlando) outside of 15 feet.

Smith did put in a better shift on the defensive glass than in Game 2, grabbing 13 defensive rebounds but, even though Al Horford deserves the bulk of the questions as to why he only controlled five of Chicago's misses (and, on some possessions, "I was helping away from the basket," would be an answer both satisfactory and true), Smith's performance was far from flawless. Smith boxed-out no one, instead trying to leak out following Derrick Rose's missed jumper with 1:37 left in the first quarter. When Taj Gibson rebounded the miss, Smith stood flat-footed in the paint four-to-six feet from the basket and watched as Gibson and Noah garnered three more offensive rebounds in quick succession, a sequence ended only when Zaza Pachulia fouled Gibson. Similarly, Noah's only bucket of the game came on a tip-in of a missed Rose jumper. Smith, guarding Noah, backed up toward his own baseline until, as shot met rim, he stood under the back of the rim facing his own basket and watched the uncontested Noah tip in the miss. Smith then turned and complained to the baseline ref.

Pachulia's performance (one point, one rebound, and four fouls in nine minutes), combined with Rick Sund's summer, didn't give Larry Drew any appealing options regarding his struggling starters nor do Smith and Horford deserve any blame for both Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams failing to grab a single defensive rebound in 37 and 23 minutes, respectively. But, at least in Smith's case, the rub is that, despite putting on a somewhat contemptible performance, he scored 17 points on 14 shots, grabbed 13 rebounds, and earned four assists. Smith is a very capable basketball player undermined by his inability to hold himself accountable to his abilities and the coddling he's received from his organization throughout his career.

Joe Johnson has diagnosed the problem:

"It just seemed as if a lot of times we just ran a lot of pick-and-rolls and I was just kind of buried in the corner. I just thought we played into their hands. We didn’t do anything, I thought, to get our scorers the basketball to make plays. They come with the double team and they make us give it up. We can’t win like that. If you look at Game 1 it was nothing like that. Obviously they made adjustments but at the same time we have to stick with what got us here."

As well as the solution:

"I just got to force the issue. In Game 4, I am definitely going to do that. I am not going to succumb to the double team and give it up every time because that’s what they want. We are playing right into their hands. I blame myself for that."

Al Horford mildly dissents:

"We had too much one-on-one. When you do that, this team is too good defensively. We just need to do a better job moving the ball and running the offense the right way. If one guy is not running the offense right, it’s not going to work for others. So I think that’s our biggest problem right now on the offensive end."

It should be pointed out that last night's game was the second-most efficient offensive performance the Hawks have had in six games against the Bulls this season and that giving up more than 120 points per 100 possessions to a mediocre offensive team may be a greater problem but, hey, this Atlanta where defense is just energy and rebounding is just a matter of physicality.

Larry Drew:

"My big guys didn’t show up tonight and I told them that at halftime. You have to play this team with energy, you have to match their physicality, you cannot complain to the officials, and you have to be ready to make it a war for 48 minutes. Tonight we did not do that."

At ProBasketballTalk Rob Mahoney writes (one hopes a premature) elegy for the possibility of surprise Game 1 offered this series:

We know the characters and sadly, the plot of this series, barring a rewrite. The Bulls are a team defined by their diligence, and the Hawks a team defined by their vices. Rose will go to work against the Hawks defense, Joakim Noah will scrap his way to every offensive board in sight. Chicago’s defense will grind and grind and grind, and the Hawks’ offense will settle and settle and settle. Josh Smith will keep taking long jumpers to a chorus of boos from his home fans. Joe Johnson will stop the ball. Atlanta will work away from everything that works, and even when they get a productive night from Jeff Teague or a more balanced scoring effort than they’re accustomed, a team in Atlanta’s position is forever left wanting more. They’re not without hope, but as an outmatched team facing an elite club with a truly amazing player (the best in the league, according to MVP voters), they’re also without a foundation for victory should all things remain constant.

Matt Moore proclaims Rose's Game 3 performance the definition of unstoppable.

SI.com: Lowe: Hawks gamble with Crawford guarding Rose

Zach Lowe uses his keen analytical eye and his full-time, professional basketball writing job to put the lie to these two sentences from my recap of Game 2:

Teague again did as good a job on Derrick Rose as could reasonably be expected before switching over to chase Kyle Korver around in the fourth quarter. The Hawks could make the change because Rose remained content (or capable only) to shoot pull-up jumpers when Jamal Crawford sagged six-to-eight feet off of him.

Lowe went to the tape and confirmed that the Hawks got killed on possessions where Crawford guarded Rose:

Crawford defended Rose on 17 of Chicago’s half-court possessions Wednesday, or about 20 percent of Chicago’s total trips down the floor. That is not a token number; that is a significant chunk of game time.

So I decided to re-watch all 17 of those possessions to see how Crawford and Atlanta managed. Nearly all of them came with Kyle Korver on the floor, and that’s not a coincidence; the Hawks do not believe Crawford is qualified to chase Korver and navigate screens, and so when Korver enters the game, they shift Teague onto Korver and Crawford onto Rose. Otherwise, Crawford typically guards Keith Bogans or Ronnie Brewer.

In any case, here are the results:

• Chicago’s offense: 23 points on 17 possessions

That works out to 135 points per 100 possessions. The league’s best offense typically scores about 114 points per 100 possessions. In other words, Chicago did rather nicely.

• Rose’s stats: 4-of-8, eight points, three assists, zero turnovers

So on all the rest of Chicago’s possessions, including fast-breaks, Rose shot 6-of-19, dished out seven assists and committed all eight of his turnovers.

Now, this isn’t all on Crawford. He had nothing to do with the three-pointer Bogans hit late in the first quarter as the shot clock was running down on a Rose/Crawford possession. But overall, a lot of Chicago’s points on these possessions stemmed from either Crawford’s inability to deal with Rose or the height advantage Korver enjoys over Teague. In fact, either Rose or Korver served as they key offensive player (either the shooter or the last passer who set up the shot) on 16 of those 17 possessions. That is remarkably smart offense.

Chicago Bulls 86 Atlanta Hawks 73

Boxscore

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
ATL	85	0.859	35.7	23.4	18.5		14.1
CHI	85	1.012	42.3	17.9	32.6		16.5

The Hawks won Game 1 on the strength of their energy, their execution, and their shot-making. In Game 2, energy was all they offered with any consistency. Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams both failed to convert transition opportunities early. Jamal Crawford took the first possible (as opposed to the first plausible) shot most of the night. Outside of the three buckets at the basket Al Horford or Jeff Teague created for him in the second half and a putback of one of those Crawford misses, Josh Smith didn't (nor did he deserve to, 0-6 on jump shots) make a field goal. Horford earned six assists but, in no small part due to Joakim Noah's active defense, couldn't buy a bucket for himself. Only Teague (21 points on 14 shots, 3 assists, 0 turnovers) provided a link to the extraordinary Game 1 offensive performance.

The offensive struggles wasted a winnable defensive performance. Teague again did as good a job on Derrick Rose as could reasonably be expected before switching over to chase Kyle Korver around in the fourth quarter. The Hawks could make the change because Rose remained content (or capable only) to shoot pull-up jumpers when Jamal Crawford sagged six-to-eight feet off of him.

It was more a case of Rose not taking advantage of the matchup than Crawford putting in an unexpectedly good defensive performance. He replaced Teague with 5:20 left in the first quarter and the game tied. When Teague re-entered the game 8 minutes and 21 seconds later, the Hawks were down six and the Chicago lead would be permanent.

That the Hawks defended Chicago so effectively despite an execrable defensive performance from Josh Smith only underlines the wasted opportunity. Though Smith blocked Carlos Boozer's shots for fun, he grabbed just three defensive rebounds in 35:41 and quite possibly failed to block out a single Bull the entire night. Al Horford battling alone in the paint for a defensive rebound against two or more Chicago Bulls was a common sight as Noah, Boozer, and Taj Gibson each grabbed at least three offensive rebounds.

In a half-court game where both teams struggled to make shots, rebounding gained outsized importance. For the Bulls, rebounding was a team effort. It's true that the Hawks, especially with Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia on the bench for most of the night, lack talented rebounders and that the Bulls are always going to be likely to win that battle. That likelihood is no excuse for Josh Smith displaying a greater interest in complaining about the mistakes and shortcomings which defined his performance tonight than in rebounding Chicago's frequent missed shots.

The Hawks return to Atlanta with homecourt advantage but without the full margin for error Chicago's 42.3 eFG% and 14 turnovers tonight could have provided them.

Atlanta Hawks 103 Chicago Bulls 95

Boxscore

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
ATL	87	1.184	55.8	20.5	25		11.5
CHI	86	1.105	49.4	15.7	25.6		12.8

With the exception of a brief period early in the third quarter when the Chicago Bulls successfully isolated Joe Johnson on one side of the floor and Josh Smith took (and missed) three jump shots in three-and-a-half minutes, the Atlanta Hawks played a brand and quality of basketball that resembled what Larry Drew described this summer far more than that which they displayed during the bulk of the regular season. Had the Hawks, with any regularity, run motion offense at the pace and with the precision they demonstrated tonight against the league's best defense even the most pessimistic of observers wouldn't have predicted a series sweep.

The gold standard of Joe Johnson playoff performances has long been Game 4 of the Celtics series. Tonight's performance might have been better. Johnson's shot-making again drove his star performance but, just as impressively, he allowed the offensive system and his teammates to create easier scoring opportunities for him. The greatest frustration with Johnson has never been a lack of ability so much as his (and his coaches') stubborn insistence on making things difficult for himself. Not that the 84.2 TS% Johnson posted tonight represents a true talent level for a less dribble-heavy, less isolated Johnson but the foundation of some easy shots and a couple trips to the foul line transforms the more difficult shots Johnson can make at the end of otherwise unproductive possessions into daggers.

Now, the Hawks, even excepting Johnson, did make a lot of jump shots tonight as Jamal Crawford continued to score frequently and efficiently this playoff season. Jason Collins knocked down a couple jumpers set shots (and grabbed two offensive rebounds). Josh Smith made a contested baseline jumper to put the Hawks back up 10 with 3:42 left in the game. Many of these were shots Chicago wanted the Hawks to take. The Hawks may have to continue to make them to continue to win games in this series but it's the rest of the team's performance that convinces one that making or missing jump shots will determine the results of games rather than Chicago's margin of victory.

Given his lack of regular playing time over the past two seasons, Jeff Teague should probably be graded on a curve. But he needn't be. The 44:37 he played, the 10 points he scored on 11 shots (that 8 of those 11 came inside of 15 feet certainly contributed to the diverse offensive attack), the 5 assists he earned against a single turnover and the 27 shots Derrick Rose needed to score 24 points (even though the Bulls, as a whole, scored just as efficiently tonight against the Hawks as they did during the regular season) should earn the second-year point guard a passing grade on merit.

Johnson and Crawford's scoring success rendered Al Horford offensively peripheral in terms of shot attempts but his three offensive rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers complemented their efforts. At the other end of the floor, Horford's ten defensive rebounds were crucial as was his defense of the rim. Josh Smith ably assisted Horford on the latter count, blocking four shots as well as playing a key role in the consistent ball and player movement in the halfcourt offense in the first half and, when Smith appeared to have lost the plot in the second half, Zaza Pachulia played seven very solid minutes in relief, making a couple layups and grabbing five rebounds.

It was a team effort. An effort in service of a sound gameplan. Larry Drew should be proud on both counts. Though I suspect he'll be even happier with the energy the Hawks displayed. Energy that had early, tangible value. The Hawks didn't build their game-opening 9-0 lead through flawless execution. Two of their first four scoring possessions were sloppy and would have resulted in turnovers rather than points had the Hawks not been quicker than the Bulls to loose balls.

Energy, execution, shot-making. The streak is over. The Hawks lead the Bulls 1-0.

Playoff Series Preview: Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls

The Atlanta Hawks won their first round playoff series against the Orlando Magic because of a specific matchup advantage that allowed them to overcome the general gulf in regular season results between the two teams. The gulf in regular season results between the Hawks and the Chicago Bulls is even greater--18 games by record, 22 games by pythagorean record--and the Hawks are in possession of no such matchup advantage in this case.

head-to-head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
CHI	85	1.11	51.5	21.1	36.7		16.1
ATL	85	0.916	46.1	17.9	19.1		15.3

Jason Collins played just 23 minutes against the Chicago Bulls this season, 17 of those in the first meeting (the one the Hawks won in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion) only because Josh Smith missed the game through injury. There's no Chicago player suitable for Collins to guard. Carlos Boozer, if/when he plays, would-pick-and-pop with impunity against Collins. Joakim Noah moves too well and too freely on the offensive end for Collins to keep up with him. The same goes for Taj Gibson or even Omer Asik to a lesser extent. Nor would having Collins guard any of them figure to have anywhere near the impact on Chicago's offense that his ability to play Dwight Howard man-to-man in the post had on Orlando's offense. Plus, playing Collins would only aid and abet Chicago's exaggerated strong-side defense against the Hawks. It's even easier to defend with two against one or with three against two when you begin the possession defending with five against four.

Collins could conceivably match up against Kurt Thomas to create a one-on-one wrestling/flopping match to run concurrent with a four-on-four game of basketball but even then Chicago would be at an advantage once a shot went up as Thomas rebounds and Collins doesn't. Zaza Pachulia would be a far better candidate for that particular role of uglying things up.

Kirk Hinrich didn't just defend Jameer Nelson effectively in the Orlando series, he provided some crucially efficient offense, scoring 10 points a game with an eFG% of 57.7%, earning 16 assists, and committing just four turnovers. His contributions, on both ends of the floor, will be missed if he cannot play in the series.

Yes, Derrick Rose averaged 25 and 9 in his three meetings against the Hawks, but Hinrich (primarily) made Rose work for those points:

Rose	PPG	eFG%	%3PTA	FT Rate
vs. league	25	48.7	.236	29.9
vs. Atl	25	44.6	.354	27.7

Against the Hawks this season, Rose shot a lower percentage from the field, got to the line less often, and greatly increased his reliance on the three-point shot. At 30 years of age, Kirk Hinrich couldn't stay up on Derrick Rose and stay in front of him but he could use his combination of his residual athleticism, his size, his defensive skill, and his experience to do the latter more often than not. Jamal Crawford can do none of those things. Jeff Teague can attempt to counter Rose with his athleticism but suffers from an extreme experience* disadvantage. Joe Johnson has the size to play off Rose with the goal of staying in front of him but Johnson's lack of athleticism and defensive skill may limit his ability to challenge Rose's shots when the come.

*Not just in general but against Rose in particular. Teague played 28 minutes against Chicago this season, 12:50 of that matched up against Rose. Even that latter total may overstate Teague's experience as he shared the court with Rose for 1:24 of the second meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 21 points, and for 7:01 of the third meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 31 points.

Teague's inexperience could be just as detrimental on the offensive end, as the Bulls have isolated Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford from their teammates while thoroughly and successfully forcing them to take their contested jump shots from positions of Chicago's choosing.

Johnson and Crawford in the three meetings against Chicago compared to their results against the rest of the league this season:

Johnson	Pts/36	eFG%	FT Rate	A/36
vs. Chi	13.7	41.3	6.5	4.7
vs. league	18.7	48.4	17.2	4.8

Crawford	Pts/36	eFG%	FT Rate	A/36
vs. Chi	11.1	50	3.7	3.6
vs. league	17.1	48.9	26.1	3.8

That Chicago so successfully neutered Atlanta's two primary ball-handlers and allowed the third high-usage player, Josh Smith, to spot up repeatedly on the weak side (Smith attempted 56% (14 of 25) of his field goals against the Bulls from outside of 16 feet. He made three of them.), it's no surprise that the one good half of basketball the Hawks played against the Bulls this season was dominated by Al Horford. In the second half of the first meeting on March 2nd, the Hawks, led by Horford's 22 points (on 12 shots and 5 free throw attempts) and two assists, outscored the Bulls by 20 points. In the other five halves (including one very hot jump shooting half from the Hawks in Chicago), the Bulls outscored the Hawks by 68 points through a combination of excellent defense and rebounding.

Below average rebounding and a willingness to take long, two-point jump shots are and have long been hallmarks of this Atlanta Hawks team. This summer, the organization built a team and conceived of a game plan to beat the Orlando Magic. Their success in accomplishing that should be commended. I think the next week to 10 days will demonstrate that that accomplishment has brought the organization no closer to winning a championship, that using four of (effectively) thirteen roster spots on backup centers will further prove (as the regular season so often did) limiting against quality teams that do not employ Dwight Howard and the best the Hawks, thin to begin with and apparently thinned further by injury, can hope to do in this series is snap their 15-game, nearly 14-year losing streak in the second round of the playoffs.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

Atlanta Hawks 84 Orlando Magic 81

Boxscore

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
ORL	84	0.964	47	26.9	22.6		16.7
ATL	84	1.000	44.3	17.7	36.8		19

The Atlanta Hawks took control of this game in the first quarter on the strength of the defense played by Jason Collins and Kirk Hinrich. Without the play of those two without the ball in their hands, Jamal Crawford and Marvin Williams don't get a chance to make the jump shots that clinched the game for the Hawks (to the extent that Orlando missing open jump shots didn't clinch the game for the Hawks). Hinrich didn't just stifle Jameer Nelson when given the chance to play. He, in the first quarter, dug down very effectively on Howard (as Collins used his bulk to hold him up) and salvaged points from more than one sluggard and potentially empty Atlanta possession.

Of course, both Hinrich and Collins picked up a second personal foul in the first half, and thus sat for 9:14 and 9:45 of the second quarter, respectively. Collins played just 5:32 of the second half. Hinrich, before leaving the game due to injury, played just 10:14 of the second half. You can see how important it was neither picked up a third foul in the first half.

Hinrich left the game, following a bucket he made to give him 11 points on just 7 shots (plus 3 steals), with just 2:56 left in the fourth quarter. By my count, Orlando scored just 34 or their 84 points in the 20:58 Hinrich played and just 28 of their 84 points in the 16:41 Collins played.

The Hawks never trailed in the game. They were tied twice: 2-2 and 12-12. And still Larry Drew resisted the opportunity to put the players most likely to keep Orlando from scoring in the game. He got away with it, not because the alternatives played such good offense--Marvin Williams scored 10 points on 6 shots, Jamal Crawford scored 19 on 16 shots and 4 free throw attempts, Joe Johnson scored 23 points on 25 shots, and Josh Smith scored 8 points on 14 shots--but because the Magic, Dwight Howard once again excepted, could not quite score efficiently enough when Hinrich and Collins were off the court to take advantage of their absence.

Dwight Howard scored 25 points on 14 field goal and 12 free throw attempts. He committed six turnovers. Half of those before Larry Drew removed Collins and Hinrich from the game at the three minute mark of the first quarter. The rest of the Magic scored 56 points on 53 field goal and 10 free throw attempts while committing 8 turnovers. Orlando had open shots. On the perimeter when guarded by Crawford or Johnson or Josh Smith. Coming off curls to shoot or going to the basket when guarded by Crawford or Johnson. They didn't make many of them.

To Larry Drew's credit, he came up with an effective game plan to defend the Magic over 10 matchups this season. That's a huge step forward from the 2010 playoffs even if he didn't always stick with said plan. It turns out that a fixation on Dwight Howard had real, tangible value for the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks.

With a willingness to be wrong twice in quick succession, I don't see how that fixation aids the Hawks against the Chicago Bulls, especially if Kirk Hinrich's knee injury is nearly as bad as it looked. There is no bullish Bull for Jason Collins to defend and there is no Atlanta guard* who can reasonably be expected to stay in front of Derrick Rose.

*Hinrich mostly stayed in front of Rose in the blowout loss in Atlanta on March 22nd but did so by giving Rose open jumpers which Rose knocked down at an unsustainably high rate. Even Hinrich would be looking to slow, rather than stop, Rose.

Plus, the Hawks scored 98.8, 89.4, and 94.2 points per 100 possessions in three meetings against the league's finest defensive team. Without a specialist to drag Chicago's (admittedly average offense) down to their level, with Chicago's best player positioned to exploit Atlanta's greatest defensive weakness, and Al Horford having suffered an additional injury since he led the Hawks to their lone victory on the strength of their two lone competitive quarters against the Bulls it's difficult to envision Atlanta competing in their next playoff series.

Winning a game against the Bulls would be some sort of mark of progress. But a mark of progress for a team that has lost 15 straight second round playoff games, was outscored during the regular season, and was outscored during their first-round series victory.

Chicago Bulls 114 Atlanta Hawks 81

Boxscore

My thoughts on the game are over at the Daily Dime. Regular readers will be ahead of the game.

Derrick Rose was amazing. The Atlanta Hawks were not. Save for Jeff Teague, who ably showed up the head coach in garbage time and Josh Smith who did the same, in a less positive sense, during the relatively brief competitive portion of the game.

The Hawks didn't make a basket in the paint over the final 27:34 of the game, though Marvin Williams (in the third quarter) and Jeff Teague (in the fourth quarter) each made a jumper inside of 15 feet during that portion of the game.

The Hawks didn't make a basket in the paint over the final 27:34 of the game despite trailing by at least 20 points for the entire time. Defense is about talent more than it's about effort but a culture of accountability has its place as well.

March 22nd Game Preview: Chicago Bulls (50-19) @ Atlanta Hawks (40-30)

TIP-OFF: 8pm (EST)

TELEVISION: TNT

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Bulls

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Several Hawks are banged up but none of them appear on the injury report.

CHICAGO INJURY REPORT: None.

BY THE NUMBERS

2010-11	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
CHI (off)	90.5	1.077	49.7	22.2	29.6	13.4
ATL (def)	89.3	1.064	49.1	27.1	25.5	14.3

2010-11	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
CHI (def)	90.5	0.999	46	29.7	24.2	13.8
ATL (off)	89.2	1.067	50.2	20.7	23.8	15.4

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: By the Horns, Blog a Bull

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Chicago -4.5, 181 o/u

PREVIOUSLY...the Chicago Bulls beat the Sacramento Kings by 40 points in Chicago last night in Carlos Boozer's return to action.

The Hawks and Bulls have split their two meetings this month with the Hawks winning in dramatic fashion in Atlanta on March 2nd and the Bulls winning in impressive fashion in Chicago on March 11th.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.