AJC.com: Cunningham: Joe Johnson’s D has been strong, too

Michael Cunningham crunches the numbers on Joe Johnson's defense so far this season:

According to Synergy, Johnson has allowed just .71 points per possession, ranked No. 42 among all players. (Synergy had him allowing .93 points per possession in 2010-11 and .89 in 2009-10). This season Joe has been very good when defending in isolation (.56 ppp allowed, ranked 13th), against screen-roll ball-handlers (.69 ppp, ranked 33rd) and chasing his man off screens (.69 ppp, ranked seventh). Joe’s only defensive weakness this season, according to Synergy, has been defending spot-ups: .94 ppp, ranked 113th.

Opponent PER tells the same story. According to 82games.com, Johnson’s foes at shooting guard have posted a paltry 8.6 PER and small forwards have managed just a 12.6 PER. (The opponent PER is ugly when Joe has been at point guard but that has only been a couple minutes, according to 82games.) Last season Joe’s opponent PER was 11.6 at shooting guard and 12.9 at small forward; in 2009-10, those numbers were 15.3 and 14.4, respectively.

Joe’s on-court, off-court numbers at basketballvalue.com also are positive. The Hawks have allowed 6.24 fewer points per 100 possessions with Joe on the court. And it doesn’t appear as if his strong numbers here depend on having Al and Josh Smith behind him: Joe has been part of strong defensive units that featured Zaza Pachulia or Jason Collins at center and even one lineup with Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.

A healthy elbow has returned normal Joe Johnson service to the offensive end. Reasonable defensive assignments for Johnson, after years of being asked to chase around far quicker players, have also helped the Hawks survive the absence of Al Horford, thus far. Obviously, Johnson deserves his share of credit for his generally effective defensive play but this provides us another moment to be thankful for Jeff Teague receiving regular playing time.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 Now On Sale

Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle were more than a match for the compressed pre-season as Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is available for purchase. In the Hawks chapter, Bradford explores why the Hawks defy their projection system and, for the third year in a row, I'm proud to have submitted a sidebar item.

It's only $9.98 to download. Not yet convinced? Read the free samples.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Marginal Value of Assists

There's no basketball but John Hollinger, who might serve as a humbling example to others, hasn't let that stop him from writing his annual player comments (Insider). Because of the lockout, the fine editors of the NBA section at ESPN.com are doling Hollinger's player comments out one team at a time. The Mavericks and Heat are the only two teams revealed thus far, so it might be a couple weeks until we get a full set of comments about the Atlanta Hawks but, within the LeBron James comment, we learn that, among players with at least 300 assists last season, Joe Johnson's assists provided the lowest average marginal value. The league average assist during the 2010-11 season was worth two-thirds of point. The average Joe Johnson assist was worth .572 points.

The methodology:

Based on shooting percentages at each distance, I calculated that the marginal value of an average dunk/layup assist is about 1.329 points in 2010-11, whereas the marginal value of an assist on a long 2 was just 0.356 points.

As always, this is surely down both to Joe Johnson's particular skills and style of play and a generally dysfunctional Atlanta Hawks offense to which we were witness last season. Atlanta Hawks in long 2-point predilection shocker!

Perhaps more time for Johnson at small forward will make a positive difference whenever we resume regular operations.

TrueHoop: LaGree: Player Evaluation and Motion Capture Technology

I've got a post up at TrueHoop, one unexpectedly inspired by the Soccer Analytics panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference:

Yesterday, Brett Hainline wrote about the vast troves of data that motion capture technology will soon bring to analysis of the NBA. The possibilities are both exciting and a little overwhelming. In imagining and understanding those possibilities, one can look to the example of soccer where motion capture technology has existed for more than a decade.

Al Horford Doesn't Expect to Play Saturday, Hawks Probably Not Going to Change

Ken Suguira, subbing for Michael Cunningham, reports from practice:

Al Horford said that, as of Thursday, he isn’t planning on playing Saturday. Said Horford, "It’s not really getting any better." Horford tried to shoot at Thursday’s practice, but was still sore. He’ll give it another try Friday.

Larry Drew began the process of backing off his mildly provocative comments from yesterday:

Horford’s injury will preclude coach Larry Drew from implementing any lineup changes that he has talked about since the 34-point loss to Philadelphia Tuesday. “It is definitely still weighing on my mind,” Drew said. “The decision has not been made yet.” The team scrimmaged but didn’t have any out-of-the-ordinary lineups, Mo Evans said.

and:

Drew said the team is not actively pursuing a trade but is in a stance of keeping its ears open. Said Drew, “We’ll continue to talk about different things, look if there’s something that could potentially make us even a better ballclub.”

Just a reminder of what Drew said yesterday:

"We have, in my opinion, fallen into a bit of a comfort zone with everything. It may be time to do something just to rattle the cage a little bit.

I am not one to react on emotions but I have had this feeling for a little while. I have been in situations where it has been like this, where a team has had to do something just to shake the cage a little bit. It’s something I’ve been thinking about. Will I do it? I have a couple days to practice and make a decision.

I don’t think at this stage . . . at least I don’t feel comfortable, totally comfortable with where we are after 52 games. We have had some bad losses here at home. That may be a sign, I don’t know. I never want to throw out the possibility of making our team better.

At the end of the day, regardless of what happens [with trades], we still are going to have to go out there and improve our club. After last night’s loss, I do believe we do have to look at our situation very seriously and possibly look at a lineup change, possibly doing something that will jolt this team. Because I don’t want this team to get into a comfort zone. The minute we get into a comfort zone, what happened last night, that is the end result."

I joked yesterday that "comfort zone" might be code for "allowing Josh Smith to take horrible shots in great quantity on a nightly basis." At The Heat Index, Tom Haberstroh describes how Erik Spoelstra addressed Chris Bosh's shot selection:

While doing his homework on Bosh, his new $110 million power forward, Spoelstra noticed something in the data: Bosh was more effective on the right side than on the left. It was a simple observation but one that would eventually send ripple effects through the team. Spoelstra knew Bosh could play on the left block, but the third-year coach also understood the value of Bosh's anchoring the Heat’s offensive sets on the right side, where he could play to his strengths.

But how would Spoelstra persuade his five-time All-Star to essentially give up one side of the court?

He set a meeting and showed him the hard evidence.

“Stats are stats, man,” Bosh laughed. “I couldn’t say anything. I was like, 'I can post up over there [on the left side].' They said, 'Well, this says you can, but it's not the same [as the right side].'"

Bosh obliged.

“I didn’t fight it. I like getting the ball in the post, so to keep that going, I just said ‘Coach, that’s fine.’”

Spoelstra says this isn’t the first time he’s used advanced stats to organize his offense. He did it last season with Jermaine O’Neal, sending the big man to the left side of the floor after seeing the numbers.

What numbers does Spoelstra use?

“We use a little bit of Synergy and then we charted it out on our own,” Spoelstra said. “I have these moles in the dungeon -- video guys -- all they do is chart.”

A far cry from:

"Someone read a stat about his percentage on stand-still shooting, he ranks high in the league."

or:

"I do feel very comfortable with Josh Smith taking the jump shot, it’s when he takes it that I have a problem with, but he and I, we’re going to battle that all year long, but we’re on the same page. We’re on the same page with it."

Production Is In the Eye of the Beholder

On January 28th, Larry Drew said this about Jeff Teague:

"I want to see more production. I want to see more consistency, and that has not been the case. He has shown flashes of being a consistent player but for whatever reason I haven’t gotten the consistency from him."

Jeff Teague has played 494 minutes in 42 of Atlanta's 51 games. In 16 of the 42 games in which Teague has appeared, he's played fewer than 10 minutes. In 7 of the 42 games in which he's appeared, he's played fewer than 5 minutes. Mike Bibby has played in all 51 games for a total of 1529 minutes. Let's compare their production.

Name	Pts/36	2PTFG%	3PTFG%	FT Rate	TS%
Bibby	11.3	41.7%	44.3%	7.2	56.5%
Teague	11.6	43.4%	35.3%	25.2	50.3%

Name	A/36	TO/36	BS/36	S/36	OR%	DR%
Bibby	4.4	1.5	0.1	0.8	1.1	8.7
Teague	5.6	2.8	0.9	1.5	1.5	12.3

If you weighted the value of their assists, Teague's lead in that column would increase as one-third of his assists this season have set up a teammate's three-point basket. Just 14.5% of Bibby's assists have led to a shot worth three points.

The point isn't how well Jeff Teague has been playing. He hasn't, really. The point is that Mike Bibby, despite his experience, the loyalty of the coaching staff, regular minutes, and the benefit of playing the vast majority of his minutes alongside the team's best players, has not been sufficiently more productive than his second-year teammate.

There's been little in Teague's performance or in his head coach's treatment of him this season that suggests he is the franchise's point guard of the future. That doesn't mean he isn't likely the franchise's best point guard of the present some nights.

Allowing the gulf between the platonic ideal of Jeff Teague's potential and the reality of his play both to limit the return on the 19th pick of the 2009 draft and the maximum possible amount of success for the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks would be foolish.

For a counter-example, look to Oklahoma City, where Eric Maynor (drafted immediately after Teague and by a different organization), plugs along for 14 minutes a night while barely breaking 50% in terms of TS%, and averaging 11.3 points, 6 assists, and 2.3 turnovers per 36 minutes.

Those numbers look familiar?

For Scott Brooks they're sufficient for a second-year player to back up All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook on a regular basis. How regular? Maynor has played in each of Oklahoma City's 50 games. His season low in minutes in a game is 6:04. He has played at least 10 minutes in 46 of Oklahoma City's 50 games and at least 9 minutes in 48 of 50 games.

An average backup point guard is a quality return on a late first-round pick. Unrealistic expectations shouldn't stand in the way. Especially when the team in question drafted potential ahead of players ready to contribute immediately.

Breaking Down Jeff Teague's Backcourt Partners

Just as in 2009-10, the Atlanta Hawks are much worse in 2010-11 when one-time point guard of the future Jeff Teague is on the court. Teague's box score stats have generally improved in his sophomore season, so it's fair to wonder if the constancy of his on/off stats (with admittedly small sample sizes from both seasons) better represents the quality of his play.

Following the lead of the organization's actions, I've essentially written off the possibility of Teague contributing to the Atlanta Hawks now or in the future, but is that fair?

Breaking down his performance based on who shares the backcourt with him, it's clear that the Hawks are far better off when Teague plays the point alongside a veteran two guard:

2 Guard	Poss	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Ja. Crawford	585	107.6	105.9	+1.7
Evans	65	103	90.6	+13.6
Johnson	41	104.8	89.7	+15.1

Than when he plays alongside a veteran point guard:

2 Guard	Poss	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Bibby	26	92	103.8	-11.8

Or alongside a small forward playing out of position:

2 Guard	Poss	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wilkins	33	109.7	117.1	-7.4
Williams	4	20	200	-180

Or alongside a rookie shooting guard:

2 Guard	Poss	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Jo. Crawford	76	96	140.8	-44.8

Eliminate the 76 possessions Teague has played alongside Jordan Crawford and his season numbers would look like this:

Player	Poss	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Teague	753	106	104.5	+1.5

Rather than this:

Player	Poss	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Teague	829	105.1	107.8	-2.7

Eliminate all the possessions alongside Jordan Crawford, Bibby, or the two small forwards playing 2-guard, and Teague's on/off numbers this season look like this:

Player	Poss	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Teague	691	107	103.6	+3.4

Bear in mind that, on the season, the Hawks have outscored opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Based on both this season's box score stats and the team's performance when Teague plays alongside a genuine, NBA-caliber 2-guard he appears a perfectly adequate backup point guard. Given his youth and the lack of a perfectly adequate starting point guard on the Atlanta Hawks roster he probably still deserves regular minutes both for the benefit of the 2010-11 team and whatever chance exists that Teague has not yet maximized his talents.

Why Have the Atlanta Hawks Struggled Against Better Teams?

It's the offense.

As has been established, the Hawks are 19-5 against opponents with a record below .500 and 3-9 against teams with winning records this season.

In those 12 games against teams with winning records, the Hawks have given up just 1.5 more points per 100 possessions (and better the league average defensive efficiency mark--106.2--against both good and bad teams) but they're scoring 12.3 fewer points per 100 possessions:

Opp	Off Eff	Def Eff	Margin
under .500	111.2	104.2	+7
over .500	98.9	105.7	-6.8

The Hawks are equal to the league's best offenses (San Antonio leads the league with 112.2 points per 100 possessions, Miami averages 111.3, Denver and Phoenix average 111.1) against sub-.500 teams but are worse than the Bucks (99.9 points per 100 possessions) against teams with winning records.

So how exactly is the offense suffering against better opposition? For one thing, the Hawks put up fewer shots when facing winning teams. The Hawks average two fewer possessions per game against teams with winning records, they turn the ball over more often, and they rebound fewer of their own misses.

Opp	Pace	TO%	OR%
under .500	90.8	15	24.4
over .500	88.7	15.8	21.8

More importantly, the Hawks shoot worse in every conceivable fashion against better opposition:

Opp	2PTFG%	3PTFG%	eFG%	FT%	FT Rate	TS%
under .500	51.5	37.5	52.5	79.2	24.5	57.1
over .500	46.4	33.6	47.3	73.2	17.8	50.8

The Hawks aren't shooting worse against better opposition because they're attempting or making significantly fewer long two-point jump shots, either:

Opp	FG% (16-23')	%FGA (16-23')
under .500	45.2	33.2
over .500	43.8	34

Yes, the Hawks are shooting the least efficient shot in basketball somewhat more often and somewhat less well against better opposition but it pales in comparison to their relative inefficiency inside of 16 feet:

Opp	FG% (at rim)	%FGA (at rim)
under .500	63.3	23.5
over .500	55.9	22.7

Opp	FG% (inside 10')	%FGA (inside 10')
under .500	48.8	16.2
over .500	43.7	14.4

Opp	FG% (10-15')	%FGA (10-15')
under .500	46.7	9
over .500	35.3	9.1

Summing up the shooting location numbers inside and outside of 15 feet (including three-point shooting in the latter):

Opp	eFG% (inside 15')	%FGA (inside 15')
under .500	55.4	48.7
over .500	48	46.3

Opp	eFG% (16+')	%FGA (16+')
under .500	49.7	51.3
over .500	46.6	53.8

Shot location data courtesy of Hoopdata

So which players are most contributing to this offensive ineptitude against better opposition? Pretty much all of them. Jamal Crawford's slightly higher scoring rate against teams above .500 is all that keeps the top 6 Hawks from making a clean sweep of scoring less often and less efficiently against better opponents:

	under .500		over .500
Name	Pts/36	TS%	Pts/36	TS%
Johnson	18.4	50.1	15.2	46.5
Horford	18	61.8	16.4	58.3
Smith	17.9	55.9	14.4	50
Crawford	17.5	58.9	17.8	51.5
Williams	13.3	60.3	12.8	53.2
Bibby	12.6	61.6	11.6	56.6

Joe Johnson and Josh Smith have suffered the most against better teams but we're only looking at 12 games of play in Smith's case and 8 games in Johnson's case. The severity of their reduced production is more indicative of team-wide struggles than individual performance. Even the two Hawks (Al Horford and Mike Bibby) whose efficiency remain above average against better opposition accomplish that feat while scoring 9 and 8 percent fewer points respectively.

If the Hawks are to be more successful against the league's better teams, they must collectively find a way to score more often and more easily. Complicating matters (at least in terms of discerning progress on this front), the Hawks will rarely face better opposition over the next seven weeks. Only one of Atlanta's next seven, three of their next eleven, and five of their next nineteen games come against teams currently sporting a record above .500. The Hawks could get two-thirds of the way through the season schedule having played just 17 games against teams with a winning record.

From February 27 to March 18, though, the Hawks are scheduled to play ten consecutive games against teams currently above .500. Based on current evidence, better ideas and better execution will be necessary to pass that test.

Is Michael Cunningham the Best Beat Writer in the NBA?

It's both a nominating provocation and an open question as there's no beat writer I read more often. His blog post this afternoon (an off day, I add) about the discrepancy between Larry Drew's words action regarding Jeff Teague is an example for anyone writing about basketball. It has it all: research, quality prose, sharp questions, and expansive quotes for the answers to those questions.

To whomever compiles the best basketball writing of 2010: do not less this pass you by.

Mathletics: NBA Insights December 27

Wayne Winston offers an adjusted plus/minus inspired thought or two for every NBA team on the basis of season-to-date data. Concerning the Hawks:

Bibby +10 and Jamaal Crawford +9 have keyed the Hawks moderate success. Despite a great PER rating Horford has not had a great impact on their usccess [sic].

It's true that Al Horford has poor adjusted plus/minus numbers this season. As do LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. It's also true that, over the entirety of this season plus last season, Horford's 15th in the league in adjusted plus/minus.

In defense of Horford's reputation, I'll offer some unadjusted plus/minus numbers from this season:

Al Horford	Off Eff	Def Eff	Poss
w/ Josh Powell	102.0	124.1	202
w/o Josh Powell	108.9	103.4	1787

Josh Powell has been on the court for 10.2% of the possessions Al Horford has played. Those possessions have decreased Horford's overall on-court offensive rating by 0.7 points per 100 possessions and increased Horford's overall on-court defensive rating by 2.1 points per 100 possessions.

More Hawks on Christmas Day History

The Hawks haven't played on Christmas Day in 21 years but, in their last two Christmas Day games (1987 and 1989), two Atlanta Hawks (pictured together below in a scanned newspaper photo circa the 1986 All-Star Game in Dallas) provided their fans with holiday delights, displays that rank among the top 15 individual Christmas Day performances since 1986.


On December 25th, 1987 in Philadelphia, Dominique Wilkins scored 45 points on 28 shots, grabbed 9 rebounds, and earned 3 assists to lead the Hawks over the 76ers 106-100.

Neil Paine's adjusted plus/minus game score ranks this as the 15th-best individual Christmas Day performance since 1986. John Hollinger's game score ranks this as the 4th-best individual Christmas Day performance since 1986. And neither metric gives 'Nique extra credit for dragging Jon Koncak, Scott Hastings, and Chris Washburn along for the victory.

Two years later, the Hawks hosted Cleveland on Christmas Day. That 115-104 victory was far more of a team effort: all 5 starters scored in double figures (Wilkins, Moses Malone, and Spud Webb each tallied at least 20 points) and Cliff Levingston chipped in 9 points and 7 boards off the bench.

Webb, though, was the unquestioned star of the day, scoring 26 points on 14 shots, grabbing 6 rebounds, earning 12 assists, and committing just 1 turnover. Paine's game score rates this the 3rd-best individual Christmas Day performance since 1986. Hollinger's version ranks Webb 6th.

Al Horford Second in the League in PER, Third in EWA

Even a 10-10 night from the field wasn't enough for Pau Gasol to surpass Al Horford in PER. Horford's 2010-11 performance trails only Chris Paul.

Now, PER is an efficiency stat so it may overrate Horford as neither his playing time nor his usage rate is typical of a contending league-best player. To that end, John Hollinger has another stat, EWA (Estimated Wins Added). By that measure, Horford has only been the (joint) third-best player in the league, providing production equal to LeBron James (16% of the way into the season) despite playing 85% of the minutes James plays and posting a usage rate more than one-third lower.

Consider this today's attempt at emphasizing how well Al Horford is playing.

Basketball-Reference.com Blog: Adjusted Efficiency

Neil Paine has updated the schedule-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and, from the Hawks fan's perspective, let's hope that Marvin Williams returns to action soon and does so in full, good health. The Hawks have fallen to 28th in the league in defensive efficiency by this measure, ahead of only Cleveland and Sacramento.

It's not all bad news (beyond the fact that these rankings cover a six- to nine-game sample) as the Hawks still rank 5th in the league in offensive efficiency by this measure and in the black efficiency-wise despite losing three games in a row at less than full strength.

Basketball-Reference.com: 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks Team Page

The proud sponsor of an essential resource.

NBA.com: Schuhmann: Getting back, getting on the boards and more stats questions

John Schuhmann wonders if the Atlanta Hawks can improve their transition defense in 2010-11:

As was noted on Monday, the Hawks are changing up their offense under new coach Larry Drew, but it would seem that their defense is what needs more work. Atlanta ranked third offensively and 14th defensively last season. While the Hawks made few changes to their roster this summer, they can easily improve by making transition defense a priority.

Atlanta was the best team in the league last season at taking care of the ball, committing just 12.8 turnovers per 100 possessions. That will likely change with their new offense. But even when they weren't turning the ball over last season, only five teams allowed more fast-break points (17 per 100). By any measure, they had the league's worst transition defense.

By doing a better job of getting back on defense, the Hawks would be sacrificing some offensive rebounds, but it would be worth it. Their ratio of second-chance points to offensive boards (1.15) was below average (1.21) anyway.

I would not be shocked if the difference between the Hawks and a league average ratio was down entirely to Zaza Pachulia's predilection for needing two or three offensive rebounds top convert a putback.

Monday Afternoon Links

A few things to peruse in anticipation of a slim majority of Atlanta Hawks (and that only if Josh Smith goes) participating in tonight's exhibition game in Detroit...

• Peachtree Hoops hunted down a link to a Detroit radio broadcast.
• There's at least one mountain to climb before getting coverage of the home team's pre-season games: having more than 20% of the players pictured on the ticket advertisements be members of the home team. Josh Smith would be well within his rights to throw his arms up in disbelief over that marketing call.
• Two new additions to the TrueHoop Network: The Heat Index brings the most experienced team yet assembled to bear on what could be a fascinating season. HoopSpeak features, amongst other draws, a "slower, shorter, friendlier Mike Bibby."
• I think you should buy Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11. Should my recommendation not prove sufficient, read a chapter for free: SCHOENE Explained.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 On Sale

Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle have completed the 2010-11 edition of Pro Basketball Prospectus and it's now available for purchase. They were kind enough to include a couple hundred words I wrote about Josh Smith indulging in long two-point jumpers even as he quit attempting three-pointers in the Atlanta chapter.

The PDF edition costs just $9.98 despite being worth several multiples of that amount.

How Might Individual Stats Stay Consistent As Roles Change

A fair question given the anticipation over Larry Drew's new half-court offense, no? Neil Paine studied...I'll let him describe it:

I took every player since 1974 who was between 24 and 34 years old and played at least 1,000 minutes in back-to-back seasons. I then sorted those players by the absolute change in their possession usage %, and took the top quartile as my sample of players who definitely changed roles. For these 1,036 players, I ran correlation coefficients on their year-to-year performances in these offensive rate stats: True shooting % (PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))), Assist Rate (% of teammate FG assisted when on the court), Turnover Rate (TOV/Possessions used), Free throw rate (FTA/FGA), Offensive rebounding % (% of available OReb pulled down while on the court).

The conclusion:

True shooting % is easily the least consistent stat when a player changes roles, which seems to back up the concept of skill curves. When a player has a high TS% and a low possession %, it may be that his efficiency is inflated by taking relatively easy shots, attempts that comprise a smaller proportion of his shot selection when he is asked to increase his usage. Along the same lines, turnover rate was the 2nd-least consistent offensive rate stat when changing roles, suggesting that not only is shooting % dependent on the player's usage, but the ability to avoid turnovers is as well.

Finally, free throw rate was in the middle of the pack in terms of correlations. I expected it to be high, alongside OR% and AsR, but it makes sense that it would be lower when you consider that it at least partially represents a player's ability to get shots close to the basket... Just like the ratio of high-percentage shots to low-percentage ones decreases when you take on a bigger role (as evidenced by TS%'s low correlation), it stands to reason that the ratio of close shots to longer ones also decreases with an increase in usage, albeit at a slower rate.

Hardwood Parxoysm: Haberstroh: Beating the Market

Tom Haberstroh uses WARP2 to determine the 20 best bargains in the NBA last season. Josh Smith was the 7th-best and Al Horford was the 16th-best bargain in the league.

In what-might-have-been news: Brandon Roy, despite missing 17 games last season, was still the 13th-best bargain while playing on the fourth year of his rookie contract. Shelden Williams does not appear on the list.

Following Up On A Good Omen

Previously: A Good Omen

Part 2 of Neil Paine's study of how individuals fared against good and bad defenses in 2009-10 is up. Joe Johnson (14th in the league against both above- and below-average defenses) slips just to 17th against top-10 defenses and 16th against bottom-10 defenses but does not appear in the top 20 against either top-5 or bottom-5 defenses.

Al Horford is all over the leaderboards (usage rate between 18% and 23% division):

• 4th in the league against below-average defenses
• 9th in the league against top-10 defenses (over a 1500+ minute sample with a higher usage rate than his season mark)
• 4th in the league against bottom-10 defenses
• 4th in the league against bottom-5 defenses