Quite predictably, Jamal Crawford couldn't muster back-to-back career years. Without the freedom Mike Woodson granted him to focus on scoring (and nothing but) Crawford turned back into the player he'd always been. Crawford's 2009-10 season was a remarkable gift that provided a surprisingly substantial return on the $19 million the Hawks paid him over the last two seasons. (As did the 123 points he scored against the Magic in the first round of the 2011 playoffs.) Make no mistake, the 2010-11 regular provided a lengthy look at a typical Jamal Crawford season.| Crawford | Pts/36 | TS% | Ast/36 | TO/36 | Usg Rate |
| 2009-10 | 20.9 | 57.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 25.8 |
| 2010-11 | 16.9 | 54.5 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 23.4 |
| Career | 17.2 | 52.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 23.4 |
Even as he went about winning the Sixth Man of Year award, the conventional wisdom regarding Crawford held true -- he's useful when his shots go in; he's useless when they don't. Given his limitations as a decision-maker when given the responsibility to decide between shooting or passing and his complete inability to rebound or defend, Crawford's value rests entirely on his scoring rate and his scoring efficiency. He was slightly above the league average in both respects last season:2010-11
| Pts/36 | TS% |
| Crawford | 16.9 | 54.5 |
| NBA | 14.8 | 54.1 |
Given that the Hawks played 4-on-5 whenever the other team had the ball or a shot went up* when Crawford was on the court, he needs to be more than a slightly above average scorer to justify his cost. To put Crawford's 2010-11 offensive contributions in perspective, he used an offensive possession 18.8% more often than did Al Horford, resulting in a scoring rate just 7.6% higher than Horford. The concerns about Horford's limitations as a scorer are legitimate. Minus whatever alchemy Mike Woodson used to transform Flip Murray into a useful NBA player, Jamal Crawford, who is only a scorer, was hardly more productive (and far less efficient) than Al Horford in his efforts to put the ball in the basket.*Though, perhaps due to the likelihood that Crawford would shoot the ball when in the game, the Hawks posted a higher offensive rebound rate when Crawford was on the floor each of the last two seasons. Unfortunately, the increase in their opposition's offensive rebound rate was equal or greater.During the 2009-10 season, Rick Sund deserved credit for acquiring Crawford while giving up just Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton's expiring contract, Mike Woodson deserved credit for playing to Crawford's strengths, Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams deserved credit for mitigating Crawford's weaknesses and Crawford deserved credit for making a lot of shots. During the 2010-11 season, it became abundantly clear why Golden State would choose not to pay the last two years of Crawford's contract. Over his two seasons in Atlanta, the Hawks got more value from Crawford than anyone could have anticipated. Looking ahead, the team does not appear to be in a position to spend much on a player who shares many of Joe Johnson's limitations, while being older and inferior, a player whose presence would only further stunt the development of the franchise's lone remaining young, cheap asset. Barring a trade, Kirk Hinrich figures to fill the role of the overpaid veteran guard who provides a narrow utility. Hinrich, theoretically, could better complement Johnson and Jeff Teague than Crawford.
Zach Lowe uses his keen analytical eye and his full-time, professional basketball writing job to put the lie to these two sentences from my recap of Game 2: Teague again did as good a job on Derrick Rose as could reasonably be expected before switching over to chase Kyle Korver around in the fourth quarter. The Hawks could make the change because Rose remained content (or capable only) to shoot pull-up jumpers when Jamal Crawford sagged six-to-eight feet off of him.
Lowe went to the tape and confirmed that the Hawks got killed on possessions where Crawford guarded Rose: Crawford defended Rose on 17 of Chicago’s half-court possessions Wednesday, or about 20 percent of Chicago’s total trips down the floor. That is not a token number; that is a significant chunk of game time.
So I decided to re-watch all 17 of those possessions to see how Crawford and Atlanta managed. Nearly all of them came with Kyle Korver on the floor, and that’s not a coincidence; the Hawks do not believe Crawford is qualified to chase Korver and navigate screens, and so when Korver enters the game, they shift Teague onto Korver and Crawford onto Rose. Otherwise, Crawford typically guards Keith Bogans or Ronnie Brewer.
In any case, here are the results:
• Chicago’s offense: 23 points on 17 possessions
That works out to 135 points per 100 possessions. The league’s best offense typically scores about 114 points per 100 possessions. In other words, Chicago did rather nicely.
• Rose’s stats: 4-of-8, eight points, three assists, zero turnovers
So on all the rest of Chicago’s possessions, including fast-breaks, Rose shot 6-of-19, dished out seven assists and committed all eight of his turnovers.
Now, this isn’t all on Crawford. He had nothing to do with the three-pointer Bogans hit late in the first quarter as the shot clock was running down on a Rose/Crawford possession. But overall, a lot of Chicago’s points on these possessions stemmed from either Crawford’s inability to deal with Rose or the height advantage Korver enjoys over Teague. In fact, either Rose or Korver served as they key offensive player (either the shooter or the last passer who set up the shot) on 16 of those 17 possessions. That is remarkably smart offense.
A turkey leg wrapped in bacon? They call it a Swanson. A four-point play? They call it a Crawford.Trey Kerby on Jamal Crawford getting the 31st Crawford of his career last night in Salt Lake City: According to the Associated Press, after last night’s four-pointer, Jamal Crawford has 31 career four-point plays. He’s made 1,236 threes in his career, which means that 2.5 percent of his made threes have ended in four-point plays. I have no idea if that’s a high number but it sure seems like a lot.
It's far too early from on/off data from this season to contain much meaning but I thought I'd look at players and combinations of players that have been discussed previously with an eye at determining if anything might be changing.All data courtesy of BasketballValue.com1) Josh Powell is as much worse than his Hawks teammates as he was worse than his two-time NBA Champion Lakers teammates.| Josh Powell | Offense |
| Defense |
|
| On | Off | On | Off |
| 2008-09 | 101.3 | 114.9 | 109.8 | 103.1 |
| 2009-10 | 102.6 | 109.8 | 108.4 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 103.2 | 115.6 | 114.5 | 104.8 |
The Lakers, who outscored opponents by 5 points per 100 possessions in 2008-09 and 8.2 points per 100 possessions in 2009-10, were outscored by 8.4 and 5.7 points per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor in the last two seasons (over roughly 2400 possessions), respectively.
The Hawks have outscored opponents by 4.4 points per 100 possessions through 12 games. When Powell's on the floor, the Hawks have been outscored by 11.3 points per 100 possessions (over roughly 320 possessions).
2) The Hawks are not as good when Jamal Crawford is on the court as when he's off the court.
Jamal Crawford's scoring is down and his turnovers are up this season compared to last season's career year but he's still a potent and efficient offensive player off the bench. However, even during that career year, the Hawks outscored their opponents when Crawford was on the court but by 1.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than when Crawford was off the court.
Now that he's having a more typical Jamal Crawford season (and likely influenced by the occasional absence of Marvin Williams, Mo Evans, and, during certain second quarters, Al Horford from the rotation), the Hawks are getting outscored with Crawford on the court.
| Crawford | On | Off | Diff |
| 2009-10 | +4.3 | +5.8 | -1.5 |
| 2010-11 | -2.8 | +13.4 | -16.2 |
3) Maybe Josh Smith can play the 3.
The on/off data for Josh Smith playing the 3 (mostly in the absence of Marvin Williams and Mo Evans) is surprisingly positive (as is his jump shooting*) so far this season.
| Josh Smith | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff | Poss |
| at the 3 | 108.5 | 99.5 | +9 | 190 |
| at the 4 | 114.4 | 108.1 | +6.3 | 606 |
On the other hand, playing away from the basket more often has coincided with Smith's offensive rebound, free throw and assist rates declining and his turnover rate increasing over last season.
It's too soon to draw any conclusions but it's certainly something worthy of continued monitoring.
*Updating this, Smith is shooting 49.2% outside of 16 feet this season. The league average outside of 16 feet is 46.2%.
4) Joe Johnson's defensive measurables are poor, the reasons why murky.
For the third straight season, the Hawks are allowing more points when Joe Johnson's on the court than when he's off the court.
| Johnson | On | Off | Diff |
| 2008-09 | 108.3 | 103.3 | -5.0 |
| 2009-10 | 108.3 | 103.9 | -4.4 |
| 2010-11 | 109.5 | 101.5 | -8.0 |
There are three possible explanations for this each of which is convincing to some degree: 1) The unrealistic defensive assignments Johnson draws because of the deficiencies of his teammates.
2) The amount of time Johnson plays with the second unit.
3) Johnson is a below average defensive player.
5) Larry Drew has done a good job of spotting Jason Collins.
Collins has played just 5 offensive and 4 defensive possessions without at least one of Josh Smith or Al Horford playing alongside him and the Hawks were outscored 6-2 in that setting.
- With both Smith and Horford on the court with Collins, the Hawks have outscored opponents 102-70.
- With just Smith and Collins on the court, the Hawks have outscored opponents 47-34.
- With just Horford and Collins on the court, the Hawks have outscored opponents 15-6.
Hoorah to intangibles and/or All-Star teammates!
A 2010-11 season preview for Jamal Crawford must begin with an an off-season recap.First, a look back at Crawford's 2009-10, a career season for the veteran: The Hawks acquired Jamal Crawford to score. He held up his end of the bargain, scoring more frequently and more efficiently than in any of his previous nine NBA seasons. Joining a good team for the first time in his career, specifically one that institutionally de-emphasized the importance of perimeter defense, Crawford found a context that made his obvious strengths more valuable than his equally obvious weaknesses were costly.
Crawford's 2009-10 saw him set new career highs* in each of these categories.
| Crawford | Pts/36 | 2PTFG% | 3PTFG% | TS% |
| Previous High | 18.6 | 45.2 | 36.1 | 54.5 |
| 2009-10 | 20.9 | 49.1 | 38.2 | 57.3 |
*Crawford averaged 18.6 points per 36 minutes in both 2007-08 and 2008-09, made 45.2% of his 2PTFGA in 2005-06, 36.1% of his 3PTFGA in 2004-05, and posted a TS% of 54.5 in 2008-09.
Crawford reveled in his success and wanted to stay in Atlanta despite the removal of the chief facilitator of his success (and that of Flip Murray before him), Mike Woodson. The Hawks, already overpaying Crawford (on his current deal), Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, and Joe Johnson, were understandably reluctant to make another* unpromising, expensive commitment to a one-dimensional guard in his 30s. Especially with Al Horford due a contract extension. So Crawford floated a pay-me-or-trade-me plea. The Hawks didn't respond (publicly) to that plea leaving Crawford to lament his preoccupation with an uncertain future.*If it were a better managed team under discussion, the limit for overpaid, one-dimensional guards in their 30s would surely be lower than two.What does this mean for the Hawks in 2010-11? In his career year, the Hawks were outscored by a point-and-a-half with Crawford on the floor. As much as he helped the team's offense, his complete inability to play defense hurt the team significantly. The damage suffered on the defensive end was not entirely Crawford's fault. A disinterest in team defense was endemic to the 2009-10 Hawks, especially with regard to the second unit which, at times, had Crawford charged with defending the opposing point guard, Maurice Evans assigned the opposing small forward, and Joe Smith nominally defending the opposing power forward.If Larry Drew (despite being hampered by a lack of capable perimeter defenders on the roster) creates a culture of responsibility on the defensive end, teammates might mitigate Crawford's inherent limitations as a defender. However, it would take a massive improvement as a defensive team to off-set the decline Crawford will likely suffer offensively. It's highly dubious to assume that, without Woodson catering to his specific, narrow gifts, Crawford can again better his career eFG% and TS% by five percentage points or score at 121% of his career rate, much less do so at such a high usage rate. Crawford's coming back to Earth in 2010-11. The Hawks must not let that probability seriously hinder the team as a whole.
When I wrote this about Jamal Crawford on August 27th: That Al Horford, Marvin Williams, and (to a lesser extent) Josh Smith are underutilized in the offense might mean that the Hawks could survive a trade made through clenched teeth for the expressed purpose of getting rid of Crawford lest he poison the team atmosphere.
I imagined something like what Michael Cunningham reported Saturday afternoon: Jamal Crawford isn’t happy about his contract situation. It’s been obvious to those around him at Hawks camp that his demeanor isn’t the same. He’s being a professional but the enthusiasm is lacking.
An enthusiastic Jamal Crawford only contributes on the offensive end to begin with. What does an unenthusiastic Jamal Crawford do? Not pass halfcourt when the other team has the ball? Probably not. Not put in the work to learn and run a new offense, dominate the ball as he always has (including his career-best 2009-10 season), and make Larry Drew's job even more difficult? Possibly.Crawford's desire for maximum financial security is perfectly understandable. His self-belief is key to his success. It is not his job to see himself as a 30-year-old, one-dimensional player no competent GM should sign to a long-term deal without knowledge of the terms of the forthcoming CBA. But Crawford was never on a good team until he was the fourth-best player on a team. That's down to an inability either to improve his weaknesses or recognize his limitations. He's not getting an extension from the Hawks. If he can't accept that, he'll only damage his future employment prospects.Crawford: "I’m just taking it one day at a time, being supportive of my teammates. I have the utmost respect for Coach Drew and his staff, that’s for sure. I try to do as much as possible without my mind wandering too much. [But] at times, you can 'overthink' it instead of just going with the flow."
We're still more than three weeks away from the start of the season, but that's not a promising sign.
Noam Schiller's most recent survey of the trading block focuses on Jamal Crawford. Noam's conclusion: Atlanta seems to have good reason both to keep Jamal and to move him. Conversely, despite his fine play last season, any team acquiring Jamal will be taking a major risk while doing so.
Usually, situations like these mean that the player is staying put. But Jamal is, as always, a special case.
With Atlanta probably knowing that he is the piece they can best utilize to acquire new, key components, and with Crawford coming off such a strong season, there may be one or two teams that can talk themselves into bringing him off the bench for 30 minutes and 14 shots a night. Then again, the Hawks could also talk themselves into paying Jamal more than he is worth to stay on their squad.
Either way, I doubt Jamal doesn’t get paid.
Despite the progress made in evaluating players, scoring is still the stat that is overrated the most, and a strong scorer like Jamal will always find a suitor. Whether he can live up to that billing for another year is yet to be seen.
There are no easy answers in Atlanta, a reality Noam drives home in attempting to identify a trading partner that's a good fit.
At Ball Don't Lie, Kelly Dwyer aptly explains why Jamal Crawford should want a new deal or a new team and why the Hawks shouldn't offer an extension: You see, the Hawks have declined to offer last year's Sixth Man Award winner a contract extension, which I think they're right to do. Assuming they pass on trading Jamal, the Hawks would have traded for the best two years of Crawford's prime, while admittedly paying a hefty price (right at $20 million, over two years) for the rights to it. Extending this guy beyond 2010-11 at anything more than half of what he's making now would be a bit daft.
But Crawford, assuming he and his representatives start to do a better job of keeping their wishes under wraps, is well within his rights to try and push for a deal (or new deal, with the extension) before training camp hits. A full season with a new team would allow for that new team - provided some approximation of the current salary cap rules carry over to the next Collective Bargaining Agreement - to go over the salary cap limit to re-sign him after this deal expires. And Crawford - a one-dimensional player who would be 31 at the time of his free agency - doesn't want to be seeking out a new deal amongst what few teams have salary cap space next summer.
Mark Bradley sees Crawford's demand as a microcosm of a franchise in competitive and financial limbo: There was a time when the Hawks seemed a rousing success story: A team of young guys growing up together and learning to win. What we’re seeing is that NBA success carries a higher and higher price. A franchise cannot hold its core together for years on end without paying dearly, and paying dearly essentially means overpaying. The Hawks overpaid Johnson because they had no real alternative: To lose him would have meant losing much of the credibility they’ve spent the past decade trying to re-establish.
The price for credibility, alas, was flexibility. The Hawks have almost none. To give Jamal Crawford what he wants would be throwing more big money at a shooting guard already past 30 in the same offseason that has seen them lavish a six-year contract on a 29-year-old who plays the same position. To trade Crawford would be to weaken the team he helped lift from 47 victories to 53. There might be a happy ending to this latest Hawks tempest, but I’ll be darned if I see it.
Sekou Smith concentrates on how Jamal Crawford and Al Horford are linked in terms of the Hawks' financial future and how the team's actions show they're already planning to be without Crawford by the start of the 2011-12 season: Muddying matters even more for the Hawks is the status of All-Star center Al Horford, who is eligible for an extension of his rookie deal (and according to HT sources will receive a near-max extension offer before the Oct. 31 deadline).
If the Hawks are forced to choose between Crawford and Horford, Crawford might as well pack his bags and be prepared to move on for the fourth time in four years (and there is no indication that the Hawks intend to hand out lucrative extensions to both players, especially after they spent $124 million to keep Johnson this summer).
No one can dispute the impact he had on the Hawks and the fact that with him they remain a dangerous team in a stacked Eastern Conference playoff chase. But making extension/trade demands surely won’t endear him to the fans or to an organization that is extremely sensitive about its already fragile public image. It’d also be a terrible welcome-to-the-job gift for Hawks coach Larry Drew, whose relationship with Crawford was rock solid last season.
But the first sign that his idea of his value and the Hawks’ perception of his value didn’t jive is when second-year point guard Jeff Teague became the first option to replace Mike Bibby as the starting point guard instead of Crawford.
If Crawford backs down from his stance and shows up to training camp with the Hawks, he’s tossed whatever leverage he might have had in the trash can and basically accepted the fact that he’s the most expendable person in the organization. Truth be told, the Hawks already have his replacement under contract. Rookie guard Jordan Crawford would just have to be rushed into duty a little sooner than perhaps expected.
Smith's solution? Crawford and Josh Smith for Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith.It's an interesting hypothetical, one which, were it to come to pass would certainly challenge the idea that defense wins championships.At Pro Basketball Talk, Kurt Helin underlines Al Horford's importance to the Hawks and how the league's economic structure works to his advantage: The question is how much to pay him -- Smith reports a near max deal is coming. Is that fair market value? Depends on how you look at the market. If Rudy Gay is worth max money in Memphis, then Horford is in that ballpark. If you are of the opinion that only the Kobe/LeBron one-named guys who can fill a building are max guys, than no. But then you hate the whole economic structure of the NBA (and probably are an owner). Either way, Horford is in for a big payday.
Horford averaged 14 points a game last season on a team that barely ever runs a play for him. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith get all the shots, Horford shoots a good 55 percent but can't get a touch for long stretches. Maybe the motion offense new coach Larry Drew is bringing in will change that.
Horford can also defend. People that only saw him try to stick with Dwight Howard in the playoffs may dispute that, but that's unfair. First, nobody defends Dwight Howard well. Second, Horford is charged with protecting the rim on a team where the defensively challenged Mike Bibby and Johnson are your starting guards. There are guys slashing into the lane with impunity. Horford does a lot to keep order down there, as much as you could hope for.
Horford may really be a four, in the sense that you can put a Pau Gasol or Chris Bosh at the five but they are really fours, too. Not that Horford is quite on the level of those two, but the step down isn't as far as people think. He's good, just in a place where his skills have not been well utilized. Maybe that will change.
Kelly Dwyer advises the Hawks that they have options when it comes to extending Horford: Unless you feel as if Al Horford(notes) is some tempestuous cry baby who couldn't handle the perceived shame of not being handed a barely bargained-on contract before the Halloween deadline, why bid against absolutely nobody else for his services? Why not let the market - those who have money, those who are willing to blink first and offer money knowing you could match the offer - do the work for you? And, better yet, why not wait until the NBA's salary structure is more to your liking, Atlanta, with revenue sharing likely tilting more in the league's direction, and with a lowered salary cap?
(Because, come on, the league is just too far down this road to try and shoe-horn a hard cap in. Owners might talk a big game about wanting it, but beyond all else, they also want to win, and stroke that ego. Which is why they overpay players in the first place.)
Al Horford is not a tempestuous cry baby. He's an exemplary worker who I have ranked in the top five at his position, despite the probability that this man is playing out of position. He's about as professional as professionals get, and he's only entering his fourth season. And with the idea that the Hawks could actually deign to feature him offensively this season, he can only get better. Which would, in turn, drive up his price, I know.
But if you're due to sign him to a "near-max" deal, that's about the most another team can sign him to next summer. And that's even if the NBA's salary limits stay in the same range (which they won't). Even if he was an unrestricted free agent this summer, the most another team could sign him to would be a "near-max" deal, a deal that you would no doubt match. So why force it now, when you can sign him to something that, I don't know, could allow you some freedom financially in the wake of the nuttiest NBA contract extension since ... well, wait a week.
Lang Greene thoroughly summarizes the situation at Hoops World and concludes that the Hawks hold all the leverage with Crawford: The Hawks hold all the leverage at this point. The organization has until June 30, 2011 to extend Crawford to a new deal.
Taking their time allows the franchise the opportunity to analyze Jordan Crawford's long term potential and allow next season's trading block to fully materialize. Patience also allows the team's performance and whether it has peaked to be assessed and lastly a slow approach allows the squad to square away Horford's contract situation --- which is the biggest priority currently on the agenda.
A month ago, ESPN.com's Chris Broussard reported that Jamal Crawford wanted a contract extension. For obvious reasons (the Joe Johnson contract, the pending extension for Al Horford, the pending CBA negotiations, Crawford's age and game) that extension hasn't materialized. So Crawford has issued an ultimatum: pay me or trade me.Broussard, tonight: Crawford, the NBA's reigning Sixth Man of the Year, told the Hawks that if they don't want to extend his contract, they should trade him, sources said.
The Hawks offered Joe Johnson an extension last year, but Sund does not typically give extensions, preferring instead to let players complete their contracts. Crawford is expecting Sund to take that approach in their meeting, sources said.
But with a potential lockout looming and the next Collective Bargaining Agreement expected to be less favorable to the players, the 30-year-old Crawford, who averaged 18 points last season, wants security.
Crawford is the latest in a growing chorus of top players this summer to express a desire to be traded. In July, Chris Paul was looking to leave New Orleans, and more recently, Carmelo Anthony has reportedly told the Denver Nuggets that he wants out.
Unfortunately for the 30-year-old Crawford, he woefully lacks the leverage with his current employer that either the 25-year-old premier point guard in the league or the demonstrably younger and better scorer possesses.The Hawks aren't in a much better position. Extending Crawford would be the lone(non-injury) way to make the Joe Johnson contract seem worse and, given their overall financial situation, appears wildly unlikely to occur. Furthermore, unlike the Hornets or Nuggets, the Hawks can't expect to get much in a trade for Crawford. 14 months ago, with 2 years and $19 million owed him, Crawford brought Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton's expiring contract in a trade.Coming off a career year, and with just 1 year and $10 million owed him, Crawford's trade value is likely higher than that now but it's difficult to envision another team both being able to take advantage of Crawford's skill and to live with his weaknesses as the Hawks, under Mike Woodson did last season. Most teams expect their guards to play some semblance of defense and, if they already have an All-Star shooting guard and one or more All-Star caliber big men, tend not to have a need for a sixth man with a usage rate over 25%. The better part of the past decade gave plenty of evidence as to what happens to teams that don't have at least three players clearly better than Crawford.There's no reason to begrudge Crawford's personal financial motives but, from the team's perspective, I suspect it doesn't make him more attractive to the rest of the league. That Al Horford, Marvin Williams, and (to a lesser extent) Josh Smith are underutilized in the offense might mean that the Hawks could survive a trade made through clenched teeth for the expressed purpose of getting rid of Crawford lest he poison the team atmosphere. Given the team's lack of a proven point guard, a backup small forward, and a fourth big man, it's far from implausible that trading Crawford could better balance a team that spent $123.7 million and a first-round draft pick on shooting guards this summer.Long-term, whether Crawford plays out the final year of his deal in Atlanta or gets traded, it's unlikely to make much difference for the Hawks in terms of the salary cap as Michael Cunningham explains: Atlanta has about $50 million in salaries committed to 2011-12, including $18 million for Johnson and $12.4 million for forward Josh Smith.
In addition to those committed salaries, the Hawks might need to maintain flexibility to retain All-Star center Al Horford. Atlanta can work out a contract extension with Horford by November; if not, he would become a restricted free agent next season and could sign an offer sheet with another team that the Hawks would have the right to match.
Crawford shouldn't be expected to duplicate his production from last season even in the best of circumstances. Having spent freely on role players whose tenure with the team preceded Crawford, the Hawks don't appear to have the luxury of gambling on Crawford being a pleasant surprise again.
- According to Kelly Dwyer's positional rankings, the Hawks had none of the league's top 30 point guards but do possess two of the top 12 shooting guards. Dwyer on #12, Jamal Crawford:
Though Crawford's game has made you cringe for years, it was still great to see this veteran of the rebuilding process finally take to a role that suited him, win the Sixth Man Award and make the playoffs for the first time in his 10-year career. Crawford can make the jump pass (not the most fundamentally sound dish), and he tries to use his length defensively, but his best skill is still getting really, really, really hot from long range and firing in a defender's face after a crossover that fools nobody into thinking he's driving. More of the same, please.
Dwyer on #4, Joe Johnson: I called his contract extension "the worst contract in NBA history," and I meant it. $120 million to a 29-year old, until he's 35? Terrible. But for this season, and the next, Johnson will be a sound all-around wing player for the Hawks. Yes, he needs the ball and plenty of minutes to drop his (over) 20 and (nearly) five and five, but he's also a lower rung All-Star who can be counted on to sop up minutes (and for that yearly January swoon, as the minutes catch up to him), and that's enough for a top five ranking at this position.
- Wherein TrueHoop Network bloggers make overtures for Carmelo Anthony.
- The Hawks are introducing dynamic pricing for individual game tickets. At TrueHoop, Kevin Arnovitz expounds on how this makes financial sense for the team and for certain fans.
- In other ticket related news, the Hawks are allowing early season ticket purchasers up to eight months to pay for those tickets.
- Charley Rosen's checklist for NBA head coaching success.
- Save your pennies, there will be a Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 book on which to spend them.
Chris Broussard reports that Jamal Crawford wants to sign a contract extension with the Hawks: Jamal Crawford, the league's reigning Sixth Man of the Year, has requested a contract extension from the Atlanta Hawks, according to league sources.
The 30-year-old Crawford made his request three weeks ago, but with the Hawks focused on re-signing All-Star Joe Johnson and other free agents, talks have not progressed to the serious stage.
Given what the Hawks have proven willing to pay aging shooting guards--$19 million to Crawford for his age 29 and 30 seasons, $124 million to Joe Johnson for his age 29 through 34 seasons--who could blame him? Factor in that Crawford had a career year, played in the first post-season games of his career, and there's an impending lockout and this should come as no surprise. I don't expect any quick movement due both to organizational inertia and the impending lockout. The next collective bargaining agreement may well save the owners from themselves.As to the first roadblock* (above) to a Jamal Crawford extension, Josh Childress spoke with Sekou Smith about why he left Atlanta: "I don't think I ever got a formal offer. ll I wanted was a deal. I just wanted to feel like they wanted me to be a part of their team. And I never had that feeling. It was always, 'we'll deal with him when we have time.' Personally and professionally, I felt like I acquitted myself the right way. I came to work and did what was asked of me. and then when it came time to negotiate, it was like 'we'll get to him whenever we can.' At least that was the attitude that was conveyed to me."
Childress, you'll recall, was probably the third best player (at worst, the fourth-best player) on the first Hawks team to make the playoffs in a decade. Again, talent evaluation is what holds this franchise back.That's not just an issue with the front office, either. Childress offered an implicit explanation for how he played 500 fewer minutes than the inferior Marvin Williams in 2007-08 when he explained what attracted him to the Suns: "One of the main things that got me excited about the opportunity was speaking with [Suns] Coach [Alvin] Gentry. They truly enjoy playing like a team. He was telling me how there were plenty of games last year where the second unit would finish the game. He made it clear that whoever is playing well will play. It's not about playing favorites. It's an equal opportunity situation."
Mike Woodson loved clearly defined roles. It cost the Hawks during the 2007-08 season. It cost the Hawks every time Mario West or Joe Smith stepped on the court. It ultimately cost them a good player in Josh Childress. That all the team got back for him was a second-round pick and a traded player exception they probably can't afford to use is where the front office and ownership re-enter the picture.*Not counting common sense.
The Hawks acquired Jamal Crawford to score. He held up his end of the bargain, scoring more frequently and more efficiently than in any of his previous nine NBA seasons. Joining a good team for the first time in his career, specifically one that institutionally de-emphasized the importance of perimeter defense, Crawford found a context that made his obvious strengths more valuable than his equally obvious weaknesses were costly.| Crawford | Pts/36 | 2PTFG% | 3PTFG% | TS% |
| 2000-09 | 16.8 | 43.7 | 34.7 | 51.7 |
| 2009-10 | 20.9 | 49.1 | 38.2 | 57.3 |
Crawford's 2009-10 saw him set new career highs* in each of these categories.| Crawford | Pts/36 | 2PTFG% | 3PTFG% | TS% |
| Previous High | 18.6 | 45.2 | 36.1 | 54.5 |
| 2009-10 | 20.9 | 49.1 | 38.2 | 57.3 |
*Crawford averaged 18.6 points per 36 minutes in both 2007-08 and 2008-09, made 45.2% of his 2PTFGA in 2005-06, 36.1% of his 3PTFGA in 2004-05, and posted a TS% of 54.5 in 2008-09.Much as he did with Flip Murray in 2008-09, Mike Woodson asked Crawford to focus on scoring and was rewarded for the decision. When playing as the lead guard, Crawford had little responsibility for setting up his teammates and, when playing off the ball, Crawford had no real responsibility other than to knock down open shots his teammates created for him. This deployment saw Crawford post career low assist and turnover rates.| Crawford | A/36 | TO/36 |
| 2000-09 | 4.6 | 2.35 |
| 2009-10 | 3.5 | 2 |
Crawford's previous career lows occurred in 2004-05, his first season with the Knicks, when he shared the backcourt with Stephon Marbury.| Crawford | A/36 | TO/36 |
| Previous Low | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| 2009-10 | 3.5 | 2 |
It's a testament both to Crawford and how he was used that he was almost certainly a net positive for the Hawks despite him being a terrible defender. How terrible was Crawford? Arguably worse than Mike Bibby. Crawford was less likely to steal the ball or draw a charge or grab a defensive rebound than Bibby. Long, athletic, and not lacking in effort this past season Crawford simply lacks any useful defensive instincts. Whereas Bibby can (very) occasionally mitigate his lack of mobility by reading a play and breaking it up, Crawford, when his team does not have possession of the ball, tends, quite literally, to stand and watch. At the (potential) end of an offensive possession, he watches a shot until it goes in or is rebounded, frequently causing him to be out of position in transition defense. In the half-court defense, he's rarely in position to help defensively and tends toward stasis once an opponent's shot goes up, neither blocking out nor in position to grab a rebound that doesn't fall directly to him. Not coincidentally, the Hawks allowed 5.3 more points per 100 possessions with Crawford on the court than when he was off the court, the worst differential on the team. Vital as Crawford was to Atlanta's offensive success he was equally liable for the team's defensive limitations. The next Hawks coach isn't going to make the team much more effective defensively without better defensive players on the perimeter. Crawford will turn 30 during the 2010-11 season. He's coming off a career year (for which he was lauded) and has an expiring contract. Given that he's managed the team's cap space in such a way as to have severely limited his options this summer, Rick Sund has to explore Crawford's trade value. That isn't to say that Crawford should be traded. 11 months ago, Jamal Crawford, owed $19+ million over two years, was worth only Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton's expiring contract. I suspect he would be worth more in exchange this summer, but Crawford's one-year, on-court value to the Hawks so far surpasses the value of the package the Hawks gave up to acquire him that the potential market for his specific skill set may be too soft for the Hawks' liking.
Still, a willingness to capitalize on Crawford's career year to acquire a player or players that better complement, both long- and short-term, whichever Hawks remain to be built around would be an encouraging sign for Hawks fans who want the team to compete for a championship. Crawford's skill set is limited and one worries about the recent tendency of the Hawks' organization to become commit such resources to their role players (Bibby, Marvin Williams, Mario West) as to limit their options to improve the team.
Alternately, Jamal Crawford wins Sixth Man of the Year by a huge margin: Crawford received 580 of a possible 610 points, including 110 of a possible 122 first-place votes.
Ten ballots had Crawford in second. Two voters left Crawford off their ballots. One voter gave Kevin Love a third-place vote. I assume that voter was making fun of Kurt Rambis. The Hawks are considering giving a max contract to a 29-year-old guard* who scored points at a slightly lower rate and less efficiently this season than did Crawford. *Said guard is a better passer, rebounder, and a less bad defender than Crawford
At Basketball Prospectus, Kevin Pelton votes Josh Smith onto the second All-NBA Team on his (theoretical) awards ballot: It still amazes me that Smith did not make the All-Star team. He is currently sixth in the league in WARP, and his total will probably end up the second best in the WARP era for players who did not make the All-Star team (Andre Miller, with 16.8 WARP in 2001-02, is the leader in that dubious category). Smith's net plus-minus is 16th in the league, and he's playing for a 50-plus-win team. I'm not sure I understand the argument against him.
With his six blocks and two steals last night, Josh Smith surpassed 300* combined blocks and steals (173 blocks, 130 steals) this season. Only Dwight Howard (227 blocks, 75 steals) can match that total and Howard, great though he is, lacks the balance unique to Smith.Adapting Bill James's self-proclaimed "freakshow" stat, Power/Speed Number*, to steals and blocks, Smith's "Strip/Stuff Number" would be 148.4. Howard's would be 112.7. Dwayne Wade appears to be third in the league at 103.9.*Defined as (2*(HR*SB))/(HR+SB)That's right, the league leader of the category I just made up is in Atlanta. Add it to his case for Defensive Player of the Year.Less popular locally, Pelton taps Anderson Varejao over Jamal Crawford for Sixth Man of the Year. Fear not, 18 of 20 voters at ESPN.com picked Crawford as Sixth Man of the Year.
Chris Sheridan: If ever there was a night when circumstances called for Woodson to insert Crawford into the starting five, it came Tuesday at the Meadowlands against the NBA's worst team as Joe Johnson (Achilles tendonitis) sat out for the first time this season.
But Woodson chose to insert rookie Jeff Teague into the starting unit and move Mike Bibby over to shooting guard, sticking with the axiom that if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Crawford responded by providing his usual fix of offensive explosiveness off the bench, scoring 15 of his points in a brief burst at the end of the second quarter as Atlanta closed the first half with a 19-5 run to take control for good.
Crawford closed the quarter with a 29-foot 3-pointer that he knew would be good from the moment the ball left his hand. The only disappointment for Crawford was that he didn't get to try for his eighth 4-point play of the season, which would have added to his career total of 26 (also tops among active players).
Tops, all-time.
John Hollinger, while making it hard for a semi-professional to get some mainland burn, ably addresses Jamal Crawford's shoulder injury: He suffered a partial left shoulder separation just before the All-Star break and has tried to play through it, but the impact on his shooting stroke has been clear.
Crawford, the Hawks’ second-leading scorer and the league’s likely Sixth Man Award winner, was 3-for-14 last night and went without a field goal against Minnesota two games earlier. In seven games since the injury he’s 26-of-84 (31.0 percent) from the field and is just 10-of-39 on 3-pointers.
Perhaps more insidious is that he’s become a more reluctant shooter -- Crawford took 17.7 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes pre-injury but only 14.5 since -- leaving Atlanta even more dependent on the “iso-Joe” offense.
Iso-Joe has gone nova.
- Michael Cunningham reports that both Jamal Crawford and Zaza Pachulia practiced yesterday and expect to play tomorrow night in Los Angeles.
- At Hardwood Paroxysm, Matt Moore approaches the four factors from a different(-ial) perspective than I did this morning, looking just at the Eastern Conference's playoff contenders (less the Milwaukee Bucks) in his post. Tantalizing excerpt:
For those of you keeping track, that’s Atlanta 1, Four Factors 3.
- At Basketball Free For All, Phil Londen makes the case for Mike Woodson as Coach of the Year:
After playing for Woodson for over five years, Smith has turned the corner maturity-wise and just seems to “get it” (finally). He plays under control, has eliminated inefficient facets of his game and is playing the best basketball of his career, despite the blatant All-Star snub this year. You also never hear about locker room discord in Atlanta and the players have nothing to negative say about Coach Woodson’s as a coach.
- Bill Simmons has posted his annual trade value list (Part 1, with Joe Johnson at #24; Part 2, with Josh Smith at #22 and Al Horford at #20). Once again, I didn't make it through the entire piece. I read enough unsuccessful attempts at humor and facile analysis before I hit "publish" to diminsh my tolerance for either from other writers.
Jamal Crawford likes to shoot. Sometimes that predilection benefits his team. Sometimes it does not. One way it (potentially) benefits his team* is manifested by Crawford's desire to get off a shot from anywhere on the court before the end of a quarter. By my count Crawford's heaved five prayers through seventeen games. Those five attempts** account for 5.9% of his total three-point attempts. Remove those five missed shots from his overall stat line and Crawford's three-point percentage improves from 29.4% to 31.2%.Over the course of the season, Crawford might take 20 shots, for the good of the team, that each have a 5%? 10%? chance of being made. Lumped into his total stat line, these attempts appear to denote Crawford's relative inefficiency when, as a real-world application of field goal attempts, they mostly reveal the limitations of the box score.*Heaving the ball at the basket can only help the team. On the (admittedly rare) times the heave falls it's a great improvement over dribbling out the clock or (selfishly) taking your heave just after the clock expires so as not to hurt your field goal percentage. The heave is simultaneously an extremely low-percentage shot and a selfless act. It should be celebrated.**Looking back at my game notes and boxscore play-by-play logs I have him doing this at the end of the first quarter against Houston and Detroit, and at the end of the third quarter against Denver, New Orleans, and Philadelphia. I'm open to corrections or additions to this tally.
