Once More, With Feeling: Reviewing Marvin Williams' Years in Atlanta

Previously: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Larry Drew, Rick Sund

In retrospect, Marvin Williams' time with the Atlanta Hawks never made more sense than the night he was drafted. Oh, in hindsight it was a mistake to take Marvin ahead of Chris Paul or, to a significantly lesser* extent, Deron Williams, but it was a mistake 28 other teams likely would have made. It's only in pairing hindsight with selective memory, forgetting Deron Williams' college playing weight, forgetting how bad Wake Forest was defensively, forgetting the final two weeks of Chris Paul's college career were lowlighted by both his punch to Julius Hodge's groin and a second-round loss in the NCAA Tournament as a 2-seed, that drafting Marvin Williams becomes a singular, spectacular act of incompetence.

(I understand you may disagree. For me to take you seriously, you'll need to cite your work. An unsupported "I knew back then" is not convincing. Here's mine. There is much wrong within.)

There were questions about Paul and Williams. Marvin Williams was potential. He didn't fulfill much that potential as an Atlanta Hawk. It's unclear how much of that was due to his limitations, unrecognized during the 22 minutes a game he played during his lone season at North Carolina, and how much was due to organizational dysfunction.

*In hindsight, Utah made a pretty sizable mistake in taking Williams ahead of Paul, too, though that generally goes unmentioned.

On his rookie deal, Williams often played ahead of the superior Josh Childress. Once the Hawks, quite reasonably, chose the younger Williams over Childress and signed Marvin to a sizable extension, the team, quite inexplicably, became disillusioned with him almost immediately. Despite the sizable extension and Williams being the only legit small forward on the roster, he found himself in a reduced role that never gave him a chance to justify the contract. Not that he would have justified it, given the chance. His almost tragically poor playoff performances added to the impression that Williams was not one to seize the moment.

Williams took grief for being an okay player drafted two spots ahead of an all-time great. For being offered a long, large extension despite being, in his brighter stretches, no more than a useful player. For his usefulness coming in ways likely to be unappreciated. In Atlanta, Marvin Willliams came to tick many of the boxes on the list of ways to be an underrated player: an efficient, low-volume scorer who didn't turn the ball over, a slightly above average defender, and a fine rebounder who played only 30 minutes a game.

Much like Joe Johnson, but at a lesser cost, Marvin Williams couldn't hope to match the organization's over-investment in his talents, especially given how he was utilized. Exactly like Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams is not his contract, nor is he what might have been had the Atlanta Hawks never acquired him. Marvin Williams is an adequate player who, in fresh circumstances, could, in his age-26 and age-27 seasons, justify the final two years of his contract. For his sake, I hope he gets that chance in Utah.

The Curious Case of Marvin Williams

By Buddy Grizzard

With the Hawks' season hanging in the balance last night at Phillips Arena, possibly the most unexpected thing happened: Marvin Williams erupted for 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, including 3-for-6 on 3-pointers. The Hawks needed every point as they barely survived to force a Game 6 in Boston on Thursday. Al Horford's triumphant return to the starting lineup for the first time since January had nothing on this story line.

Prior to Game 5, Marvin averaged 18 MPG, 4 PPG and 5 RPG while shooting 22% from the field and 20% from 3-point territory for the series. Once picked ahead of All-NBA point guards Deron Williams and Chris Paul, Marvin's value to the Hawks franchise had sunk to such a low that I proclaimed, "It's too bad the Hawks can't use the Amnesty mid-season" after his performance in Game 2.

How did we get to the point where 15 points from Marvin is shocking? It wasn't always like this. The Hawks organization must have seen something in him to extend him for around $8 million per season. The last time the Hawks played the Celtics in the postseason in 2008, the first playoff appearance for the present core, the jury was still out. The 3rd-year player came into the playoffs averaging a career-high 14.8 points per game. In three Hawks victories he averaged just under 25 minutes and 13 PPG on 57% shooting from the field and 100% shooting on 15 free throw attempts.

Even in the 4 losses at Boston he was a factor, averaging around 8 PPG and 4 RPG on 32% shooting. But like Benjamin Button, Marvin's development has seemed to go backwards since then. For the past three seasons he's hovered around 10 PPG. For two of those seasons, Jamal Crawford's volume shooting seemed a convenient scapegoat. This year everyone one from Tracy McGrady to Ivan Johnson to Vladimir Radmanovic has cut into Marvin's minutes and shots.

If we want to truly get to the bottom of the riddle wrapped in an enigma that is Marvin Williams, we've got to go back to when the legend was born. Please humor my gonzo journalism as I must insert myself into the tale in order to tell it fully.

It was the Summer of 2005 and the Hawks hadn't had a team worth following since Mookie, Smitty and Deke. As the Hawks prepared to pick second in the upcoming draft, I was producing a sports talk program on Braves Radio 640 WGST for Art "Madman" Mehring. During the first break of my first show, Art looked past guest host Mark Lemke and asked me, "Are you gonna talk?"

From then on, I talked.

I was years removed from caring about or seriously following sports (Mark had to correct me on when Bobby Cox took over as manager from Russ Nixon). I only took the gig because it was more interesting than my day job, which consisted of calling cop stations on the Gulf Coast and asking where the wrecks and stalls were. Thus, I was sort of a precursor to Dominique Wilkins' broadcasting career, a guy who got on the mic and blathered about sports without actually knowing anything about them.

One of our recurring guests was AJC columnist Jeff Schultz, whom I greatly admire and had read since he joined the paper’s staff. He came on the show and informed us that the Hawks would most likely draft the kid from North Carolina, based on his superstar potential. We put our heads together and it must have sounded like a bowling alley, because none of us knew who Marvin Williams was. I was a Tech fan and ACC snob (yes, my late cousin Lewis Grizzard just rolled over in his grave), but I hadn't watched the NCAA Tournament that year. To this day I swear Jeff feigned forgetting Marvin's name to see if we actually knew anything about college basketball.

Although my hoops knowledge wasn't up to date, I had grown up watching Magic Johnson. I later witnessed Kenny Anderson's freshman year at Tech (the only season he was ever relevant as a basketball player), and saw Jason Kidd play as early as the McDonald's All-American Game. I knew what an elite ball-distributing point guard looked like. I'd watched Chris Paul play at Wake Forest, and I thought he was special, but I didn't project him as an All-NBA point guard.

Nonetheless I felt the Hawks were well stocked with wings and had been desperate for a point guard since Mookie's departure. Deron Williams was my pick because I thought he was tougher than Paul. Schultz did not venture an opinion regarding whom the Hawks "should" draft (it was beat writer Sekou Smith who told me emphatically that the Hawks should draft Marvin), he only speculated on who they would draft.

All these years later, I have a theory that's been gnawing at me and it's time to call Jeff out. I have information that leads me to believe that the GMs of the Jazz and Hornets secretly flew to Atlanta in 2005 to meet with Schultz. In this meeting, I believe they informed Schultz that they would provide him with a lifetime's supply of Mickey Mouse PEZ dispensers if he would help them disseminate the legend of the "superstar potential" of a player who didn't even start for North Carolina.

Whether my theory proves true or not, or whether the events are far-enough removed for Jeff to finally come clean, I believe it's not too late for Marvin to reverse the Benjamin Button process. I believe he can resume his former 15 PPG glory. Imagine what would happen if Marvin showed the same professionalism this off-season as Josh Smith displayed when he showed up for camp last year. Imagine if Marvin Williams came back next season in the best shape of his life.

In the meantime, there's Game 6. I already predicted Celtics in 6 in Hoopinion's 3-on-3 series preview. I'm certainly not predicting two strong games in a row from Marvin. That would be the most unexpected thing that could possibly happen.

Hickory-High: Atlanta Hawks: Go Small. Go Far.

At Hickory-High, Matt Cianfrone looks at 5-man units and wonders if playing Marvin Williams at the four alongside Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith might help with that pesky problem the Hawks have scoring against teams with winning records, a problem they will be forced to overcome in the playoffs:

The inability to score has been particularly striking against the teams in the playoffs at the moment: New York, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Indiana, Miami, the Los Angeles Clippers and Lakers, Boston, Chicago, Memphis, San Antonio and Philadelphia. In the 19 games the Hawks have played against those opponents since Horford’s injury the they have scored over ninety points 4 times; twice against Indiana, once against the Thunder, and once against the Knicks. In only two games did the Hawks score 100 points or more, one of two matchups with the Pacers, and one of two with the Knicks . Meanwhile in seven of those games the Hawks have scored less than 80 points, and in one game against the Magic, the Hawks needed overtime to score 89 points.

Cianfrone uses this as a jumping off point to examine how the offense functions:

Plenty of this offensive problem is centered on how the Hawks offense is built. Atlanta runs isolation plays on 12.0% of their possessions according to mySynergySports.com, a number that is comparable to other isolation heavy teams such as the Thunder (13.7%) and Lakers (12.8%). Unfortunately for the Hawks they do not have a Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, or Kevin Durant on their roster. What they do have is Joe Johnson; who is pretty good in isolation situations scoring 0.85 points per possession, only 0.02 points less than Bryant. The biggest problem for the Hawks is where the ball goes when a Johnson isolation does not work. So far this year that answer has been to Josh Smith. This season Smith has 161 isolation possessions more than anyone on the Hawks outside of Johnson’s 212. In fact the two, combined, account for about 53% of the Hawks 703 team isolation possessions. Smith though does not use his portion to produce anything near that of Johnson, scoring 0.75 points per possession in these situations, shooting only 35.3% from the field, and turning the ball over 6.2% of the time. In total, Smith only scores on 39.1 percent of his isolation attempts. There has to be a better option for a struggling offense.

There are four good paragraphs (too good to pick just one to excerpt) about the pick-and-roll offense and a consideration of the defensive consequences of a small lineup. There is no consideration of Marvin Williams' playoff history which, admittedly, might render the whole value of getting him more minutes at the expense of the rest of the bench moot.

Ivan Johnson's remarkable season

I noted in February that, during a stretch of games from Jan. 29th through Feb. 4th, Ivan Johnson averaged 23.5 minutes, 9.5 points and just under 8 rebounds per game. Ivan's minutes have been up and down ever since, but he is currently on another productive stretch where he's averaged over 20 minutes per game.

In the last 4 games, Ivan has averaged 22.5 minutes, 11 points and 5 rebounds. The 8 games previous to that, Ivan averaged 14.75 minutes, 5 points and 3.5 rebounds.

For the season, Ivan has 27 games in which he has played at least 15 minutes. In those games, Ivan has averaged 21.7 minutes, 8.6 points and 5.3 rebounds. By contrast, in the 10 games since March 23rd that Marvin Williams has come off the bench, Marvin has averaged 27.9 minutes, 12 points and 5 rebounds.

If you project Ivan's production on a per-minute basis, you can see that, given the same minutes as Marvin, he could be expected to produce nearly as many points and more rebounds. That's not to denigrate what Marvin is producing off the bench. What's remarkable is the rate at which Ivan, an undrafted rookie, is producing relative to the former #2 overall draft pick.

Fun With a Small Sample of On/Off Numbers

Everything courtesy BasketballValue.com

The Hawks are almost 11 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Jason Collins on the court so far this season (96 minutes, 188 possessions). Which would be great were the Hawks not a hair more than 17 points worse offensively with Collins on the court.

Putting that latter number into context covering Collins' time as a Hawk:

Collins	Off +/-	Off Poss
2011-12	-17.26	184
2011 playoffs	-12.05	278
2010-11	-1.72	1095
2009-10	-16.8	226

Tracy McGrady and Marvin Williams have shared the court for two offensive and two defensive possessions so far this season. The Hawks outscored opponents 6-3 over those four possessions. Yes, the Hawks are +150 points per 100 possessions with McGrady and Williams both on the court. Greatest duo ever? Let's give it a shot and see what happens.

Off the Dribble: Mahoney: For the Hawks, It's a Marvin Williams Moment

Rob Mahoney brings Marvin Williams' excellent start to the season to the readers of NYTimes.com:

Break Williams’ production down per minute, and the improvements really start to take shape. His scoring is up to 17.2 points per 36 minutes from 13.0 last season, largely because Williams has begun to turn one of his weaknesses – spotting up for jumpers on the perimeter – into a potential strength. Williams still takes his fair share of jumpers when the ball swings to him on the outside (he’s made nearly half of his 3-pointers this season, a shooting mark that will surely regress), but he’s also looked to put the ball on the floor against a defense scrambling to challenge his shot. Thus far, Williams has used these driving lanes to great benefit, as he’s nearly tripled the rate at which he draws fouls in spot-up situations, per Synergy Sports Technology.

Williams is getting to the free-throw line a career-high 6.6 times – and turning the ball over a career-low 0.5 times – per 36 minutes. We’re months away from knowing if those numbers have any real staying power, but there’s no question that Williams has been exceptionally efficient in limited minutes early this season.

Yet the most pronounced change in Williams’ game has come on the glass, where his career mark of 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes – a statistical anchor from which he’s barely strayed in his season-to-season performance – has been dwarfed by the 8.9 rebounds per 36 that Williams has collected in his first six games of the year. That’s a profound difference, especially considering that the Hawks play at one of the league’s slowest paces. If we refine the data even further and evaluate Williams’ rebounding on a per-possession level that removes pace as a factor, he rises to the top as one of the elite rebounders at his position.

Again: this may all be a very quaint exercise in Small Sample Size Theater. But Williams’ work on the glass has been the result of genuine effort and an emphasis on box-out position, two rebounding components with the potential to help Williams sustain his success throughout the season. That doesn’t mean he will, per se – effort can fluctuate just as easily as any other area of performance – but the logical foundation for continued production is certainly there.

Read the whole thing. It's worth one of your 20 articles a month.

How the Hawks Are 3-1, Is the Start Sustainable?

A few items to watch as the Hawks prepare to play the two best teams in the East, the Heat and the Bulls, a combined four times this week:

1) Offensive rebounding -- The Hawks were next-to-last in the league in offensive rebounding last season which only exaggerated the team's reliance on long, two-point jump shots to score points. Through four games this season, the Hawks have rebounded more than 30% of their misses, with Marvin Williams (11%), Zaza Pachulia (19.8%), Al Horford (9.4%), and Willie Green (9.2%) leading the way.

Can this be sustained? Sure, if Williams and Pachulia continue to play this well, they deserve more playing time and, historically, both have been above average rebounders. If Josh Smith stops hanging around the perimeter on offense, he could get more involved on the offensive glass, too.

2) Limiting turnovers -- Not turning the ball over and offensive rebounding were the twin pillars of Mike Woodson's offense that destroyed inferior opposition during the 2009-10 season. It's still an effective combination in 2011-12.

Can this be sustained? I think so. It's not like every single Hawk has taken good care of the ball. Pachulia, Pargo, and Radmanovic all have turnover rates above 20% so there's a cushion for when the starters begin to turn the ball over at a rate closer to their career averages.

3) Forcing turnovers -- The Hawks were next-to-last in forcing turnovers last season. Through four games, they're 8th in the league. The Hawks are still in the bottom five of the league in possessions per game but that has more to do with what they're doing well offensively than an inability to get the ball back.

Can this be sustained? I'm skeptical. Jeff Teague's athleticism adds something to the team's perimeter defense but I don't think the second unit will be nearly as successful trapping better opposition.

4) Interior defense -- Opponents have made 48.1% of their shots at the rim. That's the best at the rim defense in the league, 14.6 percentage points better than the league average.

Can this be sustained? No. The Heat led the league in opponents field goal percentage on shots at the rim last season. They allowed 58% of those shots to be made. With Smith and Horford, interior defense can continue to be a strength but not to that degree.

5) Three-point shooting -- Last season, the Hawks were slightly below the league average in three-point attempts per game* and three-point field goal percentage. Through four games, the Hawks are comfortably above the league average in both categories.

Can this be sustained? Probably not. Joe Johnson and Vladimir Radmanovic are both making at least 40% of their three-point attempts. Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams are both making at least 50% of their three-point attempts. That won't continue. On the other hand, the Hawks probably will continue to take 20 long, two-point jump shots every game but will begin to make more than 27% of those shots so, again, there's a cushion as players drift toward their career averages.

*Partially due to the low number of possessions per game, but since the Hawks are still in the bottom five of the league in possessions per game so far this season, I think it's a fair year-to-year comparison.

Amnesty Options for the Atlanta Hawks

Assuming the new CBA gets ratified by both players and owners, it will contain the following amnesty provision:

• Each team permitted to waive 1 player prior to any season of the CBA (only for contracts in place at the inception of the CBA) and have 100% of the player’s salary removed from team salary for Cap and Tax purposes.
• Salary of amnestied players included for purposes of calculating players’ agreed-upon share of BRI.
• A modified waiver process will be utilized for players waived pursuant to the Amnesty rule, under which teams with Room under the Cap can submit competing offers to assume some but not all of the player’s remaining contract. If a player’s contract is claimed in this manner, the remaining portion of the player’s salary will continue to be paid by the team that waived him.

The Hawks are in a pretty terrible position with regard to the salary cap: about $7 million over the cap (counting neither the unguaranteed deals to Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle nor cap holds for the empty roster spaces) despite having just seven players under contract for the 2011-12 season and only $4 million scheduled to come off the books (and some guaranteed money to be added should the team keep its first round draft pick) after the season. The Hawks are both unlikely to pay the luxury tax and unlikely to get under the salary cap by any significant amount for either the 2011-12 or 2012-13 seasons.

What follows may be an academic exercise. The current ownership group chose to keep Randolph Morris on the roster to play 124 minutes in 2009-10 rather than pay him the $855,189 he was guaranteed and either use his roster spot on someone potentially useful or sign an additional player who might have been more productive. Admittedly, this history creates plausibility problems for the options discussed below, wherein ASG would choose to risk paying 10 times as much as Morris was due in 2009-10 for a far more useful professional basketball player not to play for the Hawks.

So, disclaiming the very real possibility that the Hawks will never use the amnesty provision of the new, tentatively agreed-upon CBA, the team has three potential amnesty options:

1) Kirk Hinrich -- Using the amnesty provision on Hinrich would be the cheapest option as his pro-rated 2011-12 salary will be around $6.5 million. Presumably, using the provision on Hinrich would be a short-term move inspired by a desire to use the MLE*, the Bi-Annual Exception, or just fill out the back end of the roster with veterans rather than the likes of Pape Sy, Keith Benson, Magnum Rolle, or their inexperienced (and cheaper) ilk. I suspect the Hawks are more likely to trade Hinrich than use the amnesty provision on him.

*Choosing to amnesty Hinrich in order to use the MLE to re-sign Jamal Crawford is probably the worst of all potential choices.

2) Marvin Williams -- If the Hawks amnesty Williams before this season starts, they'll still owe him $25 million and would be under the salary cap, but by less than $1 million and with seven roster to spots to fill. If the Hawks amnesty Williams before next season, they'd owe him just under $17 million and would be below $52 million in salary owed (not counting a 2012 first round pick's guaranteed contract) to the five remaining players under contract.

As the Hawks don't gain much flexibility by just using the amnesty provision on Williams before this season begins (though the combination of amnestying Williams and trading Hinrich might have interesting consequences), the number and type of players other teams amnesty will likely impact the Hawks' decision. If a bunch of teams use the amnesty provision immediately, then it's less likely Williams would draw sufficient interest under the third part of the amnesty provision wherein another team currently under the cap would defray some of the money Atlanta owes him. However, that might mean that Williams would draw greater interest as an amnestied free agent next summer when teams had fewer options from which to choose.

The reverse is not necessarily true. Even if the majority of teams hold on to their amnesty provision, Williams' market value is at an all-time low right now so the Hawks might not benefit from a thin market of amnestied players in December.

3) Joe Johnson -- If things go south (or even stagnate) for the Hawks over the course of this season and the next, 2013 could hold massive rebuilding potential for the team. Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Jeff Teague (if the Hawks make a qualifying offer for him) are the only players currently under contract beyond the end of the 2012-13 season.

If rebuilding becomes a reality, the Hawks would also figure to have their 2012 and 2013 first round picks under contract, plus the haul from a Josh Smith trade (as it's highly unlikely the Hawks will just let Smith leave via free agency). In such a scenario, the Hawks might have enough players on team-friendly contracts that it would make sense both to pay Joe Johnson the remaining $69 million in order to get that cap space back and pursue free agents in 2013 and 2014.

Because of that third part of the amnesty provision, there is a chance that it would make sense for a team under the salary cap to assume some of Joe Johnson's contract and defray the cost to the Hawks of using the amnesty provision on Johnson. Again, it's not that Joe Johnson is a worthless basketball player, it's just that he's not going to be worth $20+ million dollars a year for his age 32-34 seasons.

2010-11 Season Review: Marvin Williams

Previously: Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

There are, I suspect, few remaining believers in Marvin Williams. It appears unlikely that he will develop into a deadly spot-up shooter with three-point range, nor a reliable finisher in transition, nor a dangerous threat in the post who utilizes his size advantage over many small forwards. Last season, whether through injury, further erosion in confidence or both, Williams even regressed defensively. Late in the season, once the Hawks had Jason Collins and Kirk Hinrich and Damien Wilkins all on the roster, there rarely was a compelling reason to play Williams other than his decent-to-good rebounding rate, one far superior to any of the alternatives.

Perhaps back surgery and a late start to the season will make Williams more physically capable than he appeared much of last season. Perhaps Jeff Teague's performance against the Bulls in the playoffs* combined with the (likely) lack of depth will push Williams into a defined role as a leader of the second unit, a role where expectations might better match his capabilities. Then again, depending on how elastic** an amnesty clause the new CBA contains, Williams and the Hawks may be able to part ways before the new season begins. It might be best for both parties.

*It is in the playoffs where Williams' performance becomes indefensible, where it degrades from disappointingly average (but useful) to inarguably poor.

**The more elastic an amnesty clause, the chance that the Hawks use it to get out from under Joe Johnson's contracts increases. Not a lot, but some.

ESPN.com: Atlanta Hawks Season Preview

The 5-on-5 season previews turn to the Southeast Division this week. Discussion of the Hawks leads things off and, for anyone needing a 60-second summation of the Hawks with a reference to the pending change in ownership shoehorned in at the last minute, there's a video that I produced in my kitchen. Fair warning and all that.

Sweet, Delicious Highlights: Hawks/Bulls 3.2.11

I've been in Boston* for about two hours. Hopefully these will help tide you over until I can more thoroughly encapsulate Pape Sy's D-League career.

*More to follow in this space and at TrueHoop over the weekend concerning the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Al Horford dunks on Luol Deng to give the Hawks their first lead of the game, or, Al Horford makes Bob Rathbun's voice break:



Marvin Williams blocks Derrick Rose's dunk attempt:



Joe Johnson defends a point guard brilliantly:

Marvin Williams Suspended For Two Games

The announcement:

The Atlanta Hawks' Marvin Williams has been suspended two games without pay for throwing punches and fighting with the New York Knicks' Shawne Williams, it was announced today by Stu Jackson, NBA Executive Vice President, Basketball Operations. Shawne Williams has been suspended one game without pay for throwing a punch during the altercation.

The incident occurred with 43.7 seconds remaining in the fourth period of the Hawks' 111-102 win over the Knicks at Philips Arena in Atlanta.

Marvin Williams will serve his suspension during the Hawks' next two games: tonight at the Dallas Mavericks and Wednesday, February 2 vs. the Toronto Raptors. Shawne Williams will serve his suspension tomorrow when the Knicks play host to the Detroit Pistons.

Al Horford, Marvin Williams "Probably" To Miss At Least Two Games

From Hawks PR maven, Arthur Triche, on Twitter:

Hawks will probably be without the services of @Al_Horford and Marvin Williams for at least the next two games...

Early Returns On Continuing Themes, Part 1

It's far too early from on/off data from this season to contain much meaning but I thought I'd look at players and combinations of players that have been discussed previously with an eye at determining if anything might be changing.

All data courtesy of BasketballValue.com

1) Mike Bibby is capable defensively if Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford are all on the floor. If they're not all on the floor, Bibby is overwhelmed.

It was true last season:

Bibby	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
w/ all three	2359	Pts	103.2
w/o any of the three	1676	Pts	109.2

And it's true so far this season:

Bibby	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
w/ all three	245	242	98.8
w/o any of the three	354	386	109

2) Marvin Williams has not, in limited minutes, been a defensive savior at small forward.

Last season, the Hawks were much better defensively when Marvin Williams played small forward:

Williams 09-10	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
Williams at 3	4113	4191	101.9
anyone else at 3	3319	3764	113.4

The difference is far smaller so far this season:

Williams 10-11	Poss	Pts	Def Eff
Williams at 3	389	418	107.5
anyone else at 3	623	672	107.9

One possible explanation is that Larry Drew is only using Marvin Williams at the 3. Last season, Williams played 11.66% of his defensive possessions at other positions and the Hawks allowed almost 8 more points per 100 possession with Williams on the court but not playing the 3. So far this season, Williams has played just 16 defensive possessions (3.95%) at other positions and the Hawks are allowing 11.3 more points per 100 possession with Williams on the court but not playing the 3.

3) Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia play well together even if they play together rarely.

Pachulia & Horford	Off Eff	Poss	Def Eff	Poss	+/-
2008-09	N/A	672	N/A	670	+1.7
2009-10	110.7	291	96.9	270	+13.8
2010-11	120.4	49	84.3	51	+35.9

A second post, covering different players and combinations will appear later in the week.

Hawks Likely To Start Big Lineup in Minnesota

Michael Cunningham reports that Marvin Williams is scheduled for an MRI on his right knee and won't fly to Minnesota for tomorrow night's game. With Mo Evans still out following his knee surgery, who will start in the frontcourt?

Larry Drew speaks:

"I am looking at different things. I am looking at Minnesota and because they have such a big lineup with Beasley, Milicic and Love, I may have to go bigger at the three. If Jamal is at the two, and Joe is at the three, then Joe has to guard Beasley, and I don’t want that."

Adamant as I am that Josh Smith can't play small forward for any length of time, I'm nearly as adamant that Michael Beasley is less effective the farther he strays from the bucket. Anyone who remembers Beasley's inability* to use the threat of his jump shot to prey on Josh Smith's on-the-ball defensive weaknesses in the first round of the 2008-09 NBA Playoffs cannot but feel sanguine about the resumption of that matchup.

*Honest question: Is Michael Beasley now the poor man's JJ Hickson?

That Minnesota's playing Beasley out of position in order to squeeze Darko Milicic, who is less good at basketball than Zaza Pachulia, into the starting lineup only makes things easier for Larry Drew on Friday night. Furthermore, none of Wesley Johnson, Corey Brewer, or Lazar Hayward should especially trouble Joe Johnson when he's forced to play the 3.

Though, should Williams miss any significant time, I've included the contact information for a decent use of the 15th roster spot in this post as a public service. Because, when something like this gets written by Ian Thomsen on SI.com about Josh Smith's shot selection, I'm drunk on belief in my voice:

Smith can be unruly -- he is, once again, shooting indiscriminately from the perimeter when he ought to be controlling the paint -- so maybe the Hawks will consider trading his upside at age 24 for a more reliable star who can help them in the playoffs. But he also has a 15 percent trade kicker that complicates any deal for him, and then there is the multipronged talent that he displayed Wednesday against the Pistons (22 points on 12 shots, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks).

I could see them moving Smith for basketball reasons, but not for financial reasons -- not yet anyway.

2010-11 Season Preview: Marvin Williams

Previously: Mike Bibby, Jamal Crawford, Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Evans, Josh Powell, Jordan Crawford, Etan Thomas and Jason Collins, Pape Sy

It would be far from the worst thing in the world were Marvin Williams to lead the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks in minutes played. He's far and away the most qualified option to guard opposing small forwards and, even were it not for the good feelings regarding his involvement in Larry Drew's motion offense, Williams would be a good bet to bounce back from a thoroughly poor offensive season in 2009-10.

With Josh Smith and Al Horford already having established themselves as capable of playing at All-Star level for an entire season, Williams provides the best hope for an established player to improve his production. No one believes that Williams has yet tapped his full potential as an offensive player in five professional seasons but 2009-10 saw him at his most aimless and isolated offensively, resulting in a failure to match even the modest standards of production he'd established for himself.

The Hawks will be very fortunate if Smith, Horford, and Joe Johnson collectively match their production from last season. Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia have the potential to thrive in larger roles this season but it's Williams who figures to carry the burden of the making up for the likely declines of Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford as well as the organization's failure to address its long-standing defensive weaknesses. If Larry Drew appreciates Williams' unique (to this team) defensive skill set and coaxes greater offensive production from the still-young wing, Williams might yet make his contract (if not his draft position) seem reasonable.

Hang Time Podcast: Episode 24

Marvin Williams joins Sekou Smith and Lang Whitaker approximately 12:10 into Episode 24 to speak about the FIBA World Championships, continuing education, the Southeast Division, Larry Drew, Marvin being a young veteran, the importance of getting to the foul line (yea), motion offense, defensive responsibility, social networking, how he's dissimilar to Antoine Walker, and the Strike The R-Word bowling event with the Special Olympics Georgia.

Ball Don't Lie: Dwyer: Small Forward Rankings

Kelly Dwyer's positional rankings continue with the small forwards (players ranked 11-20, player ranked 1-10).

Marvin Williams is ranked 21st:

There are some nights where Williams will play much better than those who are listed ahead of him in these particular rankings, but overall he just doesn't stand out. Doesn't do anything spectacularly nor poorly, and is quite replaceable. Just right in the middle of everything, a Milford Man through and through. Appreciate his production, though. And his taciturn tone.

Josh Childress is ranked 22nd:

This seems like a bit of a jump, and in a way it is, I guess. Childress hasn't played in the NBA for the last two years, preferring to spend his time with a team in Greece. Before then, he was merely an above-average small forward for the Hawks and now he's playing on a Suns team that is loaded (clearly, according to this list) with small forwards. So why this high? Because he's an efficient, sturdy scorer who can hit threes on the break, he'll defend and rebound well, and he turned only 27 two months ago.

I still dream of a world where they co-exist and complement each other.

Updating O'Neal, Williams Rumors

Both Michael Cunningham in Atlanta and Brian Windhorst in Cleveland have scuttled the earlier rumor of the Hawks and Cavs getting involved in a sign-and-trade involving Shaquille O'Neal.

Cunningham:

The Marvin for Shaq sign-and-trade appears to be a non-starter. The Hawks have consistently said they like their core, and that includes Marvin. So they are not looking to move Marvin for Shaq when he’s playing under what they consider to be a reasonable contract for a starting 3 whom they still believe can blossom under L.D.

Windhorst:

There were also various reports Wednesday that the Cavs were talking to the Atlanta Hawks about trading for small forward Marvin Williams. According to league sources, the Hawks are motivated to trade Williams and have been looking for takers and also have some interest in Shaquille O'Neal.

Cavs General Manager Chris Grant has a relationship with Williams from when he was in the Hawks' front office. But Williams had a poor 2009-10 season, averaging just 10.1 points and 5.1 rebounds. He also has four years and $30 million left on his contract.

A league source said that while O'Neal's representatives have been pushing the Cavs to look for a sign-and-trade with the Hawks, the Cavs are only mildly interested. It is believed O'Neal is looking for a two-year contract worth more than the $5.7 million mid-level exception and also plenty of playing time. Without cooperation from the Cavs, his options will likely be quite limited.

NBA.com: Aldridge: Cavs Trying To Use Shaq To Lure Williams

David Aldridge reports that the Cavs wish to use Shaquille O'Neal to acquire Marvin Williams. This isn't a trade that would hurt both teams so much as one that appears destined to frustrate both fan bases. O'Neal seems surplus to requirements in Atlanta and Williams could again be a victim of expectations as LeBron's replacement.

Perhaps more interestingly, Aldridge puts a number to the trade exception ($2.9 million, as expected) the Hawks will get once the Josh Childress deal becomes official (UPDATE: It's official.) and adds Kurt Thomas (who would help the team defensively and likely be limited to a situational role) to the list of free agent big men in whom the Hawks have interest.