Tuesday, February 16, 2010

How They're Doing (Or Not Doing) It

Below, a spreadsheet showing how each team's offensive and defensive four factors (plus offensive and defensive efficiency) compare to the league average in each category. (Source for all data: Basketball-Reference.com) An average rate (for example, Charlotte's exactly league average 26.3 OR%) in this chart is represented as 100. An above average rate is above 100, a below average rate is below 100.

I don't think this will cause confusion except, possibly, in the Off Eff+ and Def Eff+ columns so, remember, Phoenix's league leading 106.8 Off Eff+ means that the Suns score 6.8% more efficiently than an average team not that they average 106.8 points per 100 possessions.

I've attempted to use the color wheel to aid the communication of this information. The darker the green, the farther above the league average. Given limited options in the red category, I used light orange, yellow, red, and dark red to highlight degrees of below average performance.

At the the far right, I've included each team's winning percentage to give an idea of how each team's performance in each of the offensive and defensive four factors has impacted their results.

Interesting things can also be gleaned by sorting teams by winning percentage. The eight teams with the highest winning percentages at the All-Star break are all average or above in eFG% for and against.

Effective FG% (eFG%) is, of course, the greatest influence on a team's offensive or defensive efficiency. 20 of the 30 teams have their Off Eff+ and eFG%+ fall in the same color range. 23 of the 30 teams have their Def Eff+ and eFG%+ allowed fall in the same color range.

Less important, and likely far less important than the amount of attention* it receives is FT Rate. The Hawks, for example, do an excellent job of keeping opponents off the free throw line (9% above average) and are average or slightly above in forcing missed shots and turnovers yet their Def Eff+ trails Utah and Milwaukee and Miami, each of whom are far more below the league average in FT Rate than the Hawks are above the league average. Forcing missed shots, rebounding those misses, and forcing turnovers are simply more important to playing effective defense than the volume of one-point attempts allowed.

*I included myself among the guilty here.

Enough preamble. Take a look for yourself. Questions, comments, and requests for clarification or correction welcome as always.

Link to the spreadsheet


weemsildinho said...

love the data, Bret. Thanks as always. It is really amazing how well the Hawks have taken care of the ball this year. That 118% number posted there is astounding. Hopefully the offense continues to post solid numbers and we can combine that with doing a better job on the defensive glass, which seems to be the one glaring weakness this team has according to those stats. With that, the Hawks have the ability to make a nice second half push.

Bronnt said...

That's one good-looking chart.