Showing posts with label 2011 playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 playoffs. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
ESPN.com: 5-on-5: Game 4 Questions
As bringing appropriate nuance to bear on Al Horford's season review remains a work-in-progress, I've been stoking the fire by watching this excellent NBA Finals series. In anticipation of Game 4, I shared a few thoughts, on the relevant greatness of Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade, on Rick Carlisle's rotations, and worked a gratuitous dig at Mike Bibby into today's installment of 5-on-5 at ESPN.com.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Chicago Bulls 93 Atlanta Hawks 73
Apologies to anyone who tried to read this recap or comment on a post during Blogger's 20+ hour downtime.
Boxscore
Gameflow
Hoopdata boxscore
Hawks fans can’t have anything nice.
The team’s streak of not winning more than one playoff series in a season since moving to Atlanta remains intact as does the desultory nature of their elimination from the playoffs. One has to go back to 1998* for an example of the Hawks losing their final playoff game by fewer than ten points. One has to go back to 1988 for an example of the Hawks scoring more than 92 points in their final playoff game. In each of the last three** seasons, the Hawks have been eliminated from the playoffs at home, scoring an average of 77 points and losing by an average of 14 and two-thirds points.
*Even then, the Hawks blew a six-point halftime lead as the Hornets hammered them to the tune of 56-41 in the second half.
**Go back four seasons, and you can include the 99-65 Game 7 loss in Boston. In the last Atlanta playoff appearance of the 1990s, the Hawks scored 66 points in New York. It’s basically pick-your-unappealing-end-point when it comes to Atlanta playoff exits.
It says something of the quality of the team’s regular season that watching the Hawks win 6 of their first 11 playoff games (while being outscored by 33 points) provided both pleasure and reasons for optimism. It says something of the experience of being a Hawks fan that a 20-point loss in the 12th playoff game could render both obsolete.
Jeff Teague, with his head coach finally given no choice but to play him, blossomed in this series, putting a performance that speaks volumes of his talent and provides an unexpected hope for the team’s improvement in 2011-12 (if applicable). Teague’s absence, first through coaching decision then through injury, for three-and-a-half quarters (Yes, Teague returned but he was not himself.) brought familiar flaws (roster construction, indifference to perimeter defense on the court and on the sideline) back to the surface.
Al Horford, on the day he earned well-deserved acclaim in the All-NBA voting, completed a dispiriting series wherein his friend and former teammate Joakim Noah’s defense clearly got the better of him. It’s no coincidence* that Horford’s two best games in the series came when the Hawks moved the ball and moved without the ball and he suffered when placed in isolation against one of the game’s premier defenders. The experience of watching Horford play out, in microcosm, Joe Johnson’s playoff career with the Hawks provides equal evidence of Horford’s status of the team’s best player* and the team’s dysfunction. Given the typical number of touches Horford receives in the post, one wonders if Larry Drew’s pre-game declaration, "A guy of his size and his ability, one area of improvement he really needs to make is his footwork," though true, is simply the Al Horford equivalent of needing to see more consistency from Jeff Teague.
*The Bulls used Noah (and Asik) against Horford throughout the series. For much of the second quarter of Game 6, Tom Thibodeau, defense obsessive, was perfectly fine with Kyle Korver guarding Joe Johnson. Horford may be the team’s best player by process of elimination (with Johnson’s defense and rebounding and Josh Smith’s shot selection being the respective eliminating factors) but he is the team’s best player.
Nor is it a coincidence that Carlos Boozer became an offensive force in this series once Jason Collins entered the starting lineup. The Hawks might not have made the second round without Collins but his one specific skill cannot be utilized in a variety of circumstances. Collins made the hobbled Boozer look athletic by comparison and could not have fairly been expected to close out on Boozer to 18 feet. Nor should Collins ever have been put in the position of being one of the baseline wing defenders in a 2-3 zone. If you have to close out on a shooter in the right corner with a defender from the left side of the floor (see Keith Bogans, 5:56 of the third quarter), you’ve got your tactics wrong.
Larry Drew never seemed to understand that Jamal Crawford was nearly as one-dimensional as Collins nor that Crawford’s great skill and his greatest liability overlapped so neatly with those of Joe Johnson. In Game 6, Drew’s hand was eventually forced by the injuries to Teague and Kirk Hinrich but his early, tactical decision to replace Teague with Crawford had the same result as it did in Game 5: Chicago extending their lead to double-digits in the first quarter.
Drew deserves credit both for the defensive gameplan against Orlando and his team’s offensive performances in Games 1 and 4 of the Chicago series. There is a very real chance that he learned on the job during his rookie season. On the other hand, in Game 6, his indiscriminate deployment of Collins and Crawford, his willingness not to play Jeff Teague, his decision to pull Al Horford from the game for the final 72 seconds of the first half* because he had committed two personal fouls, and the eight jump shots that Josh Smith attempted outside of 16 feet (5-37 in the series from that range) brought the criticisms Drew fairly received all season back to the fore.
*This didn’t change the outcome of the game but it was completely unnecessary as it was an elimination game, Horford finished the game with two fouls, and those all-important fourth quarter minutes Drew was presumably saving Horford for ended being played by Josh Powell and Hilton Armstrong anyway.
John Hollinger is optimistic about the Hawks’ future (though part of that comes from him being less convinced of Jeff Teague’s competence during the regular season than I) and, perhaps as the disappointment of another comprehensive defeat in the team’s last stand fades, I, too, will be able to focus on the possibility that a Teague/Hinrich backcourt can make a significant defensive difference, the possibility that Josh Smith overwhelmingly takes shots he’s likely to make, the possibility that Al Horford develops a post game good enough to draw a double-team and take full advantage of his passing skills, the possibility that Jamal Crawford is allowed to leave and all the possessions he uses go to more multi-faceted offensive players, the possibility that the Hawks receive anything of value in exchange for Marvin Williams (-33 in 108 minutes in the Chicago series), and the possibility that the Hawks find cheap, quality talent to fill out the bench. Some of those possibilities may come to pass when next we see professional basketball in Atlanta. Right now, they all feel very far away.
Boxscore
Gameflow
Hoopdata boxscore
Hawks fans can’t have anything nice.
The team’s streak of not winning more than one playoff series in a season since moving to Atlanta remains intact as does the desultory nature of their elimination from the playoffs. One has to go back to 1998* for an example of the Hawks losing their final playoff game by fewer than ten points. One has to go back to 1988 for an example of the Hawks scoring more than 92 points in their final playoff game. In each of the last three** seasons, the Hawks have been eliminated from the playoffs at home, scoring an average of 77 points and losing by an average of 14 and two-thirds points.
*Even then, the Hawks blew a six-point halftime lead as the Hornets hammered them to the tune of 56-41 in the second half.
**Go back four seasons, and you can include the 99-65 Game 7 loss in Boston. In the last Atlanta playoff appearance of the 1990s, the Hawks scored 66 points in New York. It’s basically pick-your-unappealing-end-point when it comes to Atlanta playoff exits.
It says something of the quality of the team’s regular season that watching the Hawks win 6 of their first 11 playoff games (while being outscored by 33 points) provided both pleasure and reasons for optimism. It says something of the experience of being a Hawks fan that a 20-point loss in the 12th playoff game could render both obsolete.
Jeff Teague, with his head coach finally given no choice but to play him, blossomed in this series, putting a performance that speaks volumes of his talent and provides an unexpected hope for the team’s improvement in 2011-12 (if applicable). Teague’s absence, first through coaching decision then through injury, for three-and-a-half quarters (Yes, Teague returned but he was not himself.) brought familiar flaws (roster construction, indifference to perimeter defense on the court and on the sideline) back to the surface.
Al Horford, on the day he earned well-deserved acclaim in the All-NBA voting, completed a dispiriting series wherein his friend and former teammate Joakim Noah’s defense clearly got the better of him. It’s no coincidence* that Horford’s two best games in the series came when the Hawks moved the ball and moved without the ball and he suffered when placed in isolation against one of the game’s premier defenders. The experience of watching Horford play out, in microcosm, Joe Johnson’s playoff career with the Hawks provides equal evidence of Horford’s status of the team’s best player* and the team’s dysfunction. Given the typical number of touches Horford receives in the post, one wonders if Larry Drew’s pre-game declaration, "A guy of his size and his ability, one area of improvement he really needs to make is his footwork," though true, is simply the Al Horford equivalent of needing to see more consistency from Jeff Teague.
*The Bulls used Noah (and Asik) against Horford throughout the series. For much of the second quarter of Game 6, Tom Thibodeau, defense obsessive, was perfectly fine with Kyle Korver guarding Joe Johnson. Horford may be the team’s best player by process of elimination (with Johnson’s defense and rebounding and Josh Smith’s shot selection being the respective eliminating factors) but he is the team’s best player.
Nor is it a coincidence that Carlos Boozer became an offensive force in this series once Jason Collins entered the starting lineup. The Hawks might not have made the second round without Collins but his one specific skill cannot be utilized in a variety of circumstances. Collins made the hobbled Boozer look athletic by comparison and could not have fairly been expected to close out on Boozer to 18 feet. Nor should Collins ever have been put in the position of being one of the baseline wing defenders in a 2-3 zone. If you have to close out on a shooter in the right corner with a defender from the left side of the floor (see Keith Bogans, 5:56 of the third quarter), you’ve got your tactics wrong.
Larry Drew never seemed to understand that Jamal Crawford was nearly as one-dimensional as Collins nor that Crawford’s great skill and his greatest liability overlapped so neatly with those of Joe Johnson. In Game 6, Drew’s hand was eventually forced by the injuries to Teague and Kirk Hinrich but his early, tactical decision to replace Teague with Crawford had the same result as it did in Game 5: Chicago extending their lead to double-digits in the first quarter.
Drew deserves credit both for the defensive gameplan against Orlando and his team’s offensive performances in Games 1 and 4 of the Chicago series. There is a very real chance that he learned on the job during his rookie season. On the other hand, in Game 6, his indiscriminate deployment of Collins and Crawford, his willingness not to play Jeff Teague, his decision to pull Al Horford from the game for the final 72 seconds of the first half* because he had committed two personal fouls, and the eight jump shots that Josh Smith attempted outside of 16 feet (5-37 in the series from that range) brought the criticisms Drew fairly received all season back to the fore.
*This didn’t change the outcome of the game but it was completely unnecessary as it was an elimination game, Horford finished the game with two fouls, and those all-important fourth quarter minutes Drew was presumably saving Horford for ended being played by Josh Powell and Hilton Armstrong anyway.
John Hollinger is optimistic about the Hawks’ future (though part of that comes from him being less convinced of Jeff Teague’s competence during the regular season than I) and, perhaps as the disappointment of another comprehensive defeat in the team’s last stand fades, I, too, will be able to focus on the possibility that a Teague/Hinrich backcourt can make a significant defensive difference, the possibility that Josh Smith overwhelmingly takes shots he’s likely to make, the possibility that Al Horford develops a post game good enough to draw a double-team and take full advantage of his passing skills, the possibility that Jamal Crawford is allowed to leave and all the possessions he uses go to more multi-faceted offensive players, the possibility that the Hawks receive anything of value in exchange for Marvin Williams (-33 in 108 minutes in the Chicago series), and the possibility that the Hawks find cheap, quality talent to fill out the bench. Some of those possibilities may come to pass when next we see professional basketball in Atlanta. Right now, they all feel very far away.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
ESPN.com: 5-on-5: Breaking down Game 6 between Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks
This morning I join Michael Wallace, Jared Wade, John Krolik, and Braedan Ritter to discuss the Hawks/Bulls series and make predictions about Game 6:
5. In Thursday's Game 6 in Atlanta ...A. The Bulls finally end this series.
B. The Hawks extend it to Game 7.Bret LaGree, Hoopinion: B. The Hawks extend it to Game 7. At the risk of making my clean sweep of being wrong about the Hawks throughout the playoffs come to a painful end, I'll pick the Hawks. The home crowd may be enough to prop up Teague and Johnson and Horford and Smith even if the minutes catch up with them in the fourth quarter again.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Chicago Bulls 95 Atlanta Hawks 83
Boxscore
The problem with energy is that it's finite. The Atlanta Hawks fell behind early in Game 5, they fell behind by a lot: 15 points just 10:37 into the game. They worked hard to get all of that back before the third quarter ended but had nothing left in the tank to compete effectively in the fourth.
The Bulls played Taj Gibson and Omer Asik and Ronnie Brewer for the entirety of the competitive portion of the fourth quarter. In normal circumstances, they aren't collectively better than Jeff Teague and Josh Smith and Al Horford. When they're fresh (none of the Chicago trio had played more than 10 minutes in the game prior to the fourth quarter) and the Hawks players are exhausted, well, energy won out.
It's not a knock on Teague or Smith or Horford or Joe Johnson that they ran out of gas three-quarters of the way through the 93rd game of the season. They gave all they had. Nor is Larry Drew in line for criticism for riding his starters too hard. Only Zaza Pachulia provided any productive auxiliary minutes. Jason Collins didn't hurt the team when he was on the floor but he didn't help, either.
The same can't be said of Jamal Crawford. If anything, Drew played Crawford too much. That early 15-point deficit came about, in no small part, because Crawford allowed Keith Bogans to score roughly a week's worth of points (that would be a total of 8 points) on three consecutive possessions. Crawford provides no value if he's not making shots and he missed eight of his nine shots tonight, generally showing a greater interest in flopping post-release than even pretending to play defense.
Some joker on Chicago's stat crew inserted nine minutes, two points, and a rebound on Marvin Williams' line of the box score. I watched the game. I know better.
Even if Drew doesn't deserve criticism for the lack of options at his disposal tonight, a Hawks fan couldn't help, even while savoring the possibility of the Hawks winning the game, but watch Jeff Teague score 21 points on 11 shots, earn 7 assists, refrain from committing a turnover, and make Derrick Rose work for many of his 33 points, and feel angry about many, if not most, of 1674 minutes he watched Mike Bibby play for the Hawks this season. Some of the pleasure of this (modest-to-date) playoff run derives from the element of surprise. In no way, though, would a second-round playoff exit or a trip to the Conference finals be undermined had Teague (and, to a lesser extent, Pachulia) played as much during the regular season as his talent (especially relative to the alternatives) clearly warranted.
| Team | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| ATL | 79 | 1.051 | 48.6 | 19.7 | 22.9 | 12.7 | |
| CHI | 80 | 1.188 | 51.4 | 29.2 | 28.6 | 13.8 |
The problem with energy is that it's finite. The Atlanta Hawks fell behind early in Game 5, they fell behind by a lot: 15 points just 10:37 into the game. They worked hard to get all of that back before the third quarter ended but had nothing left in the tank to compete effectively in the fourth.
The Bulls played Taj Gibson and Omer Asik and Ronnie Brewer for the entirety of the competitive portion of the fourth quarter. In normal circumstances, they aren't collectively better than Jeff Teague and Josh Smith and Al Horford. When they're fresh (none of the Chicago trio had played more than 10 minutes in the game prior to the fourth quarter) and the Hawks players are exhausted, well, energy won out.
It's not a knock on Teague or Smith or Horford or Joe Johnson that they ran out of gas three-quarters of the way through the 93rd game of the season. They gave all they had. Nor is Larry Drew in line for criticism for riding his starters too hard. Only Zaza Pachulia provided any productive auxiliary minutes. Jason Collins didn't hurt the team when he was on the floor but he didn't help, either.
The same can't be said of Jamal Crawford. If anything, Drew played Crawford too much. That early 15-point deficit came about, in no small part, because Crawford allowed Keith Bogans to score roughly a week's worth of points (that would be a total of 8 points) on three consecutive possessions. Crawford provides no value if he's not making shots and he missed eight of his nine shots tonight, generally showing a greater interest in flopping post-release than even pretending to play defense.
Some joker on Chicago's stat crew inserted nine minutes, two points, and a rebound on Marvin Williams' line of the box score. I watched the game. I know better.
Even if Drew doesn't deserve criticism for the lack of options at his disposal tonight, a Hawks fan couldn't help, even while savoring the possibility of the Hawks winning the game, but watch Jeff Teague score 21 points on 11 shots, earn 7 assists, refrain from committing a turnover, and make Derrick Rose work for many of his 33 points, and feel angry about many, if not most, of 1674 minutes he watched Mike Bibby play for the Hawks this season. Some of the pleasure of this (modest-to-date) playoff run derives from the element of surprise. In no way, though, would a second-round playoff exit or a trip to the Conference finals be undermined had Teague (and, to a lesser extent, Pachulia) played as much during the regular season as his talent (especially relative to the alternatives) clearly warranted.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Chicago Bulls 99 Atlanta Hawks 82
Boxscore
Gameflow
Hoopdata boxscore
Highlights
If Game 1 provided a vision of how the Atlanta Hawks could beat the Chicago Bulls--by making shots created through quick, precise player and ball movement and almost breaking even on the glass--then Game 3 reminded everyone of the vast gulf that separated the teams in the regular season.
Quite simply the Atlanta Hawks are not as good at defending or rebounding as the Chicago Bulls and, though Jeff Teague (21 points on 13 shots, three assists, one turnover, another 40+ minutes played) tried his damnedest not to make it true, the Atlanta Hawks do not have a player as good as Derrick Rose to overcome their weaknesses. Rose's 44-point explosion testified more to his skills than an Atlanta defensive breakdown. Sure, it would nice if the Hawks' defensive gameplan didn't include the opportunity for Rose to step into uncontested jump shots whenever he felt like it but there's little more Teague can do than prevent Rose from getting all the way from the rim. If Rose stops and elevates quickly and scores from eight-to-ten feet, that's to his credit. The same goes for Al Horford or Josh Smith challenging Rose in and around the paint. If he can get his shot off just before they arrive, or float his teardrop just over their outstretched arm, well, that's why he's the MVP.
NOTE: In the following paragraphs, assume the phrase "Jeff Teague excepted" throughout. Thank you.
Oh, how the Hawks could use a dynamic offensive performance. It needn't be MVP-caliber, just representative of an All-Star. The Hawks officially have two such players and a third of arguably equivalent ability. None of them put Chicago's defense under any sort of pressure last night. Johnson (10 points on 12 shots, three assists, two turnovers) was a tentative shell of the player who exploded in Game 1, often compounding his lack of effective work before receiving the ball by stopping the ball as soon he touched it. Al Horford (10 points on 12 shots, two assists) had the opposite problem in the first half. He rushed everything. The three composed shots he made in the second half might provide some hope for him to snap out of it going forward but arrived too late to have any impact on this game.
Josh Smith remains the greatest enigma. No Chicago player can keep him from getting to the basket (Smith made seven of eight shots in the paint and got to the free throw line eight times) but Smith show only an intermittent interest in the possibility. He missed six more shots from outside of 15 feet in this game, bringing his series total to 0-17 (that's 0%) and his playoff total to 8-51 (that's 18.6% after crediting him for the three three-pointers he made against Orlando) outside of 15 feet.
Smith did put in a better shift on the defensive glass than in Game 2, grabbing 13 defensive rebounds but, even though Al Horford deserves the bulk of the questions as to why he only controlled five of Chicago's misses (and, on some possessions, "I was helping away from the basket," would be an answer both satisfactory and true), Smith's performance was far from flawless. Smith boxed-out no one, instead trying to leak out following Derrick Rose's missed jumper with 1:37 left in the first quarter. When Taj Gibson rebounded the miss, Smith stood flat-footed in the paint four-to-six feet from the basket and watched as Gibson and Noah garnered three more offensive rebounds in quick succession, a sequence ended only when Zaza Pachulia fouled Gibson. Similarly, Noah's only bucket of the game came on a tip-in of a missed Rose jumper. Smith, guarding Noah, backed up toward his own baseline until, as shot met rim, he stood under the back of the rim facing his own basket and watched the uncontested Noah tip in the miss. Smith then turned and complained to the baseline ref.
Pachulia's performance (one point, one rebound, and four fouls in nine minutes), combined with Rick Sund's summer, didn't give Larry Drew any appealing options regarding his struggling starters nor do Smith and Horford deserve any blame for both Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams failing to grab a single defensive rebound in 37 and 23 minutes, respectively. But, at least in Smith's case, the rub is that, despite putting on a somewhat contemptible performance, he scored 17 points on 14 shots, grabbed 13 rebounds, and earned four assists. Smith is a very capable basketball player undermined by his inability to hold himself accountable to his abilities and the coddling he's received from his organization throughout his career.
Joe Johnson has diagnosed the problem:
Larry Drew:
Gameflow
Hoopdata boxscore
Highlights
| Team | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| CHI | 81 | 1.222 | 53.2 | 20.5 | 41.9 | 14.8 | |
| ATL | 81 | 1.012 | 47.9 | 18.9 | 23.7 | 14.8 |
If Game 1 provided a vision of how the Atlanta Hawks could beat the Chicago Bulls--by making shots created through quick, precise player and ball movement and almost breaking even on the glass--then Game 3 reminded everyone of the vast gulf that separated the teams in the regular season.
Quite simply the Atlanta Hawks are not as good at defending or rebounding as the Chicago Bulls and, though Jeff Teague (21 points on 13 shots, three assists, one turnover, another 40+ minutes played) tried his damnedest not to make it true, the Atlanta Hawks do not have a player as good as Derrick Rose to overcome their weaknesses. Rose's 44-point explosion testified more to his skills than an Atlanta defensive breakdown. Sure, it would nice if the Hawks' defensive gameplan didn't include the opportunity for Rose to step into uncontested jump shots whenever he felt like it but there's little more Teague can do than prevent Rose from getting all the way from the rim. If Rose stops and elevates quickly and scores from eight-to-ten feet, that's to his credit. The same goes for Al Horford or Josh Smith challenging Rose in and around the paint. If he can get his shot off just before they arrive, or float his teardrop just over their outstretched arm, well, that's why he's the MVP.
NOTE: In the following paragraphs, assume the phrase "Jeff Teague excepted" throughout. Thank you.
Oh, how the Hawks could use a dynamic offensive performance. It needn't be MVP-caliber, just representative of an All-Star. The Hawks officially have two such players and a third of arguably equivalent ability. None of them put Chicago's defense under any sort of pressure last night. Johnson (10 points on 12 shots, three assists, two turnovers) was a tentative shell of the player who exploded in Game 1, often compounding his lack of effective work before receiving the ball by stopping the ball as soon he touched it. Al Horford (10 points on 12 shots, two assists) had the opposite problem in the first half. He rushed everything. The three composed shots he made in the second half might provide some hope for him to snap out of it going forward but arrived too late to have any impact on this game.
Josh Smith remains the greatest enigma. No Chicago player can keep him from getting to the basket (Smith made seven of eight shots in the paint and got to the free throw line eight times) but Smith show only an intermittent interest in the possibility. He missed six more shots from outside of 15 feet in this game, bringing his series total to 0-17 (that's 0%) and his playoff total to 8-51 (that's 18.6% after crediting him for the three three-pointers he made against Orlando) outside of 15 feet.
Smith did put in a better shift on the defensive glass than in Game 2, grabbing 13 defensive rebounds but, even though Al Horford deserves the bulk of the questions as to why he only controlled five of Chicago's misses (and, on some possessions, "I was helping away from the basket," would be an answer both satisfactory and true), Smith's performance was far from flawless. Smith boxed-out no one, instead trying to leak out following Derrick Rose's missed jumper with 1:37 left in the first quarter. When Taj Gibson rebounded the miss, Smith stood flat-footed in the paint four-to-six feet from the basket and watched as Gibson and Noah garnered three more offensive rebounds in quick succession, a sequence ended only when Zaza Pachulia fouled Gibson. Similarly, Noah's only bucket of the game came on a tip-in of a missed Rose jumper. Smith, guarding Noah, backed up toward his own baseline until, as shot met rim, he stood under the back of the rim facing his own basket and watched the uncontested Noah tip in the miss. Smith then turned and complained to the baseline ref.
Pachulia's performance (one point, one rebound, and four fouls in nine minutes), combined with Rick Sund's summer, didn't give Larry Drew any appealing options regarding his struggling starters nor do Smith and Horford deserve any blame for both Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams failing to grab a single defensive rebound in 37 and 23 minutes, respectively. But, at least in Smith's case, the rub is that, despite putting on a somewhat contemptible performance, he scored 17 points on 14 shots, grabbed 13 rebounds, and earned four assists. Smith is a very capable basketball player undermined by his inability to hold himself accountable to his abilities and the coddling he's received from his organization throughout his career.
Joe Johnson has diagnosed the problem:
"It just seemed as if a lot of times we just ran a lot of pick-and-rolls and I was just kind of buried in the corner. I just thought we played into their hands. We didn’t do anything, I thought, to get our scorers the basketball to make plays. They come with the double team and they make us give it up. We can’t win like that. If you look at Game 1 it was nothing like that. Obviously they made adjustments but at the same time we have to stick with what got us here."As well as the solution:
"I just got to force the issue. In Game 4, I am definitely going to do that. I am not going to succumb to the double team and give it up every time because that’s what they want. We are playing right into their hands. I blame myself for that."Al Horford mildly dissents:
"We had too much one-on-one. When you do that, this team is too good defensively. We just need to do a better job moving the ball and running the offense the right way. If one guy is not running the offense right, it’s not going to work for others. So I think that’s our biggest problem right now on the offensive end."It should be pointed out that last night's game was the second-most efficient offensive performance the Hawks have had in six games against the Bulls this season and that giving up more than 120 points per 100 possessions to a mediocre offensive team may be a greater problem but, hey, this Atlanta where defense is just energy and rebounding is just a matter of physicality.
Larry Drew:
"My big guys didn’t show up tonight and I told them that at halftime. You have to play this team with energy, you have to match their physicality, you cannot complain to the officials, and you have to be ready to make it a war for 48 minutes. Tonight we did not do that."At ProBasketballTalk Rob Mahoney writes (one hopes a premature) elegy for the possibility of surprise Game 1 offered this series:
We know the characters and sadly, the plot of this series, barring a rewrite. The Bulls are a team defined by their diligence, and the Hawks a team defined by their vices. Rose will go to work against the Hawks defense, Joakim Noah will scrap his way to every offensive board in sight. Chicago’s defense will grind and grind and grind, and the Hawks’ offense will settle and settle and settle. Josh Smith will keep taking long jumpers to a chorus of boos from his home fans. Joe Johnson will stop the ball. Atlanta will work away from everything that works, and even when they get a productive night from Jeff Teague or a more balanced scoring effort than they’re accustomed, a team in Atlanta’s position is forever left wanting more. They’re not without hope, but as an outmatched team facing an elite club with a truly amazing player (the best in the league, according to MVP voters), they’re also without a foundation for victory should all things remain constant.Matt Moore proclaims Rose's Game 3 performance the definition of unstoppable.
Friday, May 06, 2011
TrueHoop: LaGree: Six reasons the playoff Hawks are better
I wrote a piece for the TrueHoop mothership today as to why the Hawks are playing better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. One reason:
The fans The Atlanta Hawks have a long and, sadly, well-deserved history of playing in front of sparse or unsupportive home crowds. The post-season, however, are a different matter. Witness the 2008 first-round playoff series against the Boston Celtics. While the size of Atlanta’s fanbase may not compare, it’s an intense collective that’s hungry for their team to experience real success. The Hawks have not won two straight playoff series since they moved to Atlanta 42 years ago. The Hawks don’t just return to Atlanta with home-court advantage in this playoff series, they return to to Atlanta to play with a home-court advantage unlike anything they enjoy from October to April.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
HawkStr8Talk: Honesty Corner's 5 Truths: Vol. 9
It's one of my favorite features in Hawks blogosphere, but I must take issue with Truth 2 even though I don't entirely disagree with it:
Plus, Horford's shooting a terrible percentage while using one-sixth of Atlanta's possessions on shots he has a history of making. Josh Smith is shooting a terrible percentage while using one-fourth of Atlanta's offensive possessions on shots he has no history of making.
Al Horford's not playing as well as he's capable in the playoffs so far. The credit for Atlanta's five post-season victories has rightly gone to Jason Collins and Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson and Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague before Horford gets a mention (if applicable). Still, Al Horford's playing better than Josh Smith. 45 shots outside of 16 feet in eight games?
Every possession must be valued and Josh has proven that you can't trust him to make sound basketball decisions.Al Horford's not playing well but he's still clearly playing better than Josh Smith. Horford has the higher offensive and defensive rebounding rate, the higher assist rate, the lower turnover rate, and, though Smith has the higher steal and block rates, it's arguable that he's even playing better overall defense than Horford the day after Joakim Noah gets 19 points on 8 shots primarily matched up against Smith.
But here's the thing - we KNOW this about Josh. We take the good with the bad and yes, I finally advocate seeing if there is a package that includes Josh that can improve this team this offseason, but we also must take Al Horford to task. He's an All Star, our All Star - supposedly our heart and soul...and uh, he's not really dialed in this postseason. Yes, he's not completely missing in action like Marvin Williams, but we are used to Marvin being missing. We aren't used to Al not be a force. He has to be a force. We're winning game in spite of the fact that our front court is NOT imposing its will on anyone. I see this as a good thing in that we can get BETTER, but let's be honest - for everyone who is mad at Josh...uh, reserve about 80% of that criticism for Al too. He's supposed to be better than Josh and he's not doing much better.
Plus, Horford's shooting a terrible percentage while using one-sixth of Atlanta's possessions on shots he has a history of making. Josh Smith is shooting a terrible percentage while using one-fourth of Atlanta's offensive possessions on shots he has no history of making.
Al Horford's not playing as well as he's capable in the playoffs so far. The credit for Atlanta's five post-season victories has rightly gone to Jason Collins and Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson and Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague before Horford gets a mention (if applicable). Still, Al Horford's playing better than Josh Smith. 45 shots outside of 16 feet in eight games?
SI.com: Lowe: Hawks gamble with Crawford guarding Rose
Zach Lowe uses his keen analytical eye and his full-time, professional basketball writing job to put the lie to these two sentences from my recap of Game 2:
Teague again did as good a job on Derrick Rose as could reasonably be expected before switching over to chase Kyle Korver around in the fourth quarter. The Hawks could make the change because Rose remained content (or capable only) to shoot pull-up jumpers when Jamal Crawford sagged six-to-eight feet off of him.Lowe went to the tape and confirmed that the Hawks got killed on possessions where Crawford guarded Rose:
Crawford defended Rose on 17 of Chicago’s half-court possessions Wednesday, or about 20 percent of Chicago’s total trips down the floor. That is not a token number; that is a significant chunk of game time.
So I decided to re-watch all 17 of those possessions to see how Crawford and Atlanta managed. Nearly all of them came with Kyle Korver on the floor, and that’s not a coincidence; the Hawks do not believe Crawford is qualified to chase Korver and navigate screens, and so when Korver enters the game, they shift Teague onto Korver and Crawford onto Rose. Otherwise, Crawford typically guards Keith Bogans or Ronnie Brewer.
In any case, here are the results:
• Chicago’s offense: 23 points on 17 possessions
That works out to 135 points per 100 possessions. The league’s best offense typically scores about 114 points per 100 possessions. In other words, Chicago did rather nicely.
• Rose’s stats: 4-of-8, eight points, three assists, zero turnovers
So on all the rest of Chicago’s possessions, including fast-breaks, Rose shot 6-of-19, dished out seven assists and committed all eight of his turnovers.
Now, this isn’t all on Crawford. He had nothing to do with the three-pointer Bogans hit late in the first quarter as the shot clock was running down on a Rose/Crawford possession. But overall, a lot of Chicago’s points on these possessions stemmed from either Crawford’s inability to deal with Rose or the height advantage Korver enjoys over Teague. In fact, either Rose or Korver served as they key offensive player (either the shooter or the last passer who set up the shot) on 16 of those 17 possessions. That is remarkably smart offense.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Chicago Bulls 86 Atlanta Hawks 73
Boxscore
The Hawks won Game 1 on the strength of their energy, their execution, and their shot-making. In Game 2, energy was all they offered with any consistency. Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams both failed to convert transition opportunities early. Jamal Crawford took the first possible (as opposed to the first plausible) shot most of the night. Outside of the three buckets at the basket Al Horford or Jeff Teague created for him in the second half and a putback of one of those Crawford misses, Josh Smith didn't (nor did he deserve to, 0-6 on jump shots) make a field goal. Horford earned six assists but, in no small part due to Joakim Noah's active defense, couldn't buy a bucket for himself. Only Teague (21 points on 14 shots, 3 assists, 0 turnovers) provided a link to the extraordinary Game 1 offensive performance.
The offensive struggles wasted a winnable defensive performance. Teague again did as good a job on Derrick Rose as could reasonably be expected before switching over to chase Kyle Korver around in the fourth quarter. The Hawks could make the change because Rose remained content (or capable only) to shoot pull-up jumpers when Jamal Crawford sagged six-to-eight feet off of him.
It was more a case of Rose not taking advantage of the matchup than Crawford putting in an unexpectedly good defensive performance. He replaced Teague with 5:20 left in the first quarter and the game tied. When Teague re-entered the game 8 minutes and 21 seconds later, the Hawks were down six and the Chicago lead would be permanent.
That the Hawks defended Chicago so effectively despite an execrable defensive performance from Josh Smith only underlines the wasted opportunity. Though Smith blocked Carlos Boozer's shots for fun, he grabbed just three defensive rebounds in 35:41 and quite possibly failed to block out a single Bull the entire night. Al Horford battling alone in the paint for a defensive rebound against two or more Chicago Bulls was a common sight as Noah, Boozer, and Taj Gibson each grabbed at least three offensive rebounds.
In a half-court game where both teams struggled to make shots, rebounding gained outsized importance. For the Bulls, rebounding was a team effort. It's true that the Hawks, especially with Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia on the bench for most of the night, lack talented rebounders and that the Bulls are always going to be likely to win that battle. That likelihood is no excuse for Josh Smith displaying a greater interest in complaining about the mistakes and shortcomings which defined his performance tonight than in rebounding Chicago's frequent missed shots.
The Hawks return to Atlanta with homecourt advantage but without the full margin for error Chicago's 42.3 eFG% and 14 turnovers tonight could have provided them.
| Team | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| ATL | 85 | 0.859 | 35.7 | 23.4 | 18.5 | 14.1 | |
| CHI | 85 | 1.012 | 42.3 | 17.9 | 32.6 | 16.5 |
The Hawks won Game 1 on the strength of their energy, their execution, and their shot-making. In Game 2, energy was all they offered with any consistency. Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams both failed to convert transition opportunities early. Jamal Crawford took the first possible (as opposed to the first plausible) shot most of the night. Outside of the three buckets at the basket Al Horford or Jeff Teague created for him in the second half and a putback of one of those Crawford misses, Josh Smith didn't (nor did he deserve to, 0-6 on jump shots) make a field goal. Horford earned six assists but, in no small part due to Joakim Noah's active defense, couldn't buy a bucket for himself. Only Teague (21 points on 14 shots, 3 assists, 0 turnovers) provided a link to the extraordinary Game 1 offensive performance.
The offensive struggles wasted a winnable defensive performance. Teague again did as good a job on Derrick Rose as could reasonably be expected before switching over to chase Kyle Korver around in the fourth quarter. The Hawks could make the change because Rose remained content (or capable only) to shoot pull-up jumpers when Jamal Crawford sagged six-to-eight feet off of him.
It was more a case of Rose not taking advantage of the matchup than Crawford putting in an unexpectedly good defensive performance. He replaced Teague with 5:20 left in the first quarter and the game tied. When Teague re-entered the game 8 minutes and 21 seconds later, the Hawks were down six and the Chicago lead would be permanent.
That the Hawks defended Chicago so effectively despite an execrable defensive performance from Josh Smith only underlines the wasted opportunity. Though Smith blocked Carlos Boozer's shots for fun, he grabbed just three defensive rebounds in 35:41 and quite possibly failed to block out a single Bull the entire night. Al Horford battling alone in the paint for a defensive rebound against two or more Chicago Bulls was a common sight as Noah, Boozer, and Taj Gibson each grabbed at least three offensive rebounds.
In a half-court game where both teams struggled to make shots, rebounding gained outsized importance. For the Bulls, rebounding was a team effort. It's true that the Hawks, especially with Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia on the bench for most of the night, lack talented rebounders and that the Bulls are always going to be likely to win that battle. That likelihood is no excuse for Josh Smith displaying a greater interest in complaining about the mistakes and shortcomings which defined his performance tonight than in rebounding Chicago's frequent missed shots.
The Hawks return to Atlanta with homecourt advantage but without the full margin for error Chicago's 42.3 eFG% and 14 turnovers tonight could have provided them.
Some Shotmaking Particulars
(HT: Jason Walker's must-read response to the Mike Prada piece linked below.)
The Atlanta Hawks take a lot of long two-point jump shots. The Atlanta Hawks typically make those shots at a better rate than other teams. This didn't create a good offense for the Hawks in the regular season because those aren't very efficient shots. On the other hand, making those inefficient shots at a slightly worse rate in the playoffs isn't necessarily going to cripple an offense* because of that very same built-in inefficiency. Especially when said offense counters its decreased efficiency on an inefficient shot with a greatly increased efficiency on a really efficient shot.
*And acknowledging that, outside of the two Game 1s, the Atlanta offense hasn't been very efficient in the playoffs, either.
Quite simply: the Atlanta Hawks didn't make a high percentage of three-point shots during the regular season but they're making a very high percentage of three-point shots through seven playoff games. As a team, the Hawks are shooting 38.6% in the playoffs (up from 35.2% during the regular season). The Hawks are shooting 38.6% in the playoffs despite Josh Smith making just 3 of 16 three-pointers and Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and Damien Wilkins combining to miss all five of their attempts from beyond the arc.
The Atlanta guards, though, have been dynamite from beyond the arc. Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Kirk Hinrich have collectively made 38 three-pointers at a 46.8% rate. Hinrich shot the three well in his brief time in Atlanta, but the Hawks' offense suffered all season from poor three-point shooting from Johnson (29.7% on 300 attempts) and Crawford (34.1% on 349 attempts) and it's their hot shooting from beyond the arc (a combined 30 of 64 through seven playoff games), more than anything happening in the team's trademark 16-23' sliver of shot selection, that has made the Hawks a profoundly tougher out than their regular season results suggested.
The Atlanta Hawks take a lot of long two-point jump shots. The Atlanta Hawks typically make those shots at a better rate than other teams. This didn't create a good offense for the Hawks in the regular season because those aren't very efficient shots. On the other hand, making those inefficient shots at a slightly worse rate in the playoffs isn't necessarily going to cripple an offense* because of that very same built-in inefficiency. Especially when said offense counters its decreased efficiency on an inefficient shot with a greatly increased efficiency on a really efficient shot.
*And acknowledging that, outside of the two Game 1s, the Atlanta offense hasn't been very efficient in the playoffs, either.
Quite simply: the Atlanta Hawks didn't make a high percentage of three-point shots during the regular season but they're making a very high percentage of three-point shots through seven playoff games. As a team, the Hawks are shooting 38.6% in the playoffs (up from 35.2% during the regular season). The Hawks are shooting 38.6% in the playoffs despite Josh Smith making just 3 of 16 three-pointers and Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and Damien Wilkins combining to miss all five of their attempts from beyond the arc.
The Atlanta guards, though, have been dynamite from beyond the arc. Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Kirk Hinrich have collectively made 38 three-pointers at a 46.8% rate. Hinrich shot the three well in his brief time in Atlanta, but the Hawks' offense suffered all season from poor three-point shooting from Johnson (29.7% on 300 attempts) and Crawford (34.1% on 349 attempts) and it's their hot shooting from beyond the arc (a combined 30 of 64 through seven playoff games), more than anything happening in the team's trademark 16-23' sliver of shot selection, that has made the Hawks a profoundly tougher out than their regular season results suggested.
Monday, May 02, 2011
Atlanta Hawks 103 Chicago Bulls 95
Boxscore
With the exception of a brief period early in the third quarter when the Chicago Bulls successfully isolated Joe Johnson on one side of the floor and Josh Smith took (and missed) three jump shots in three-and-a-half minutes, the Atlanta Hawks played a brand and quality of basketball that resembled what Larry Drew described this summer far more than that which they displayed during the bulk of the regular season. Had the Hawks, with any regularity, run motion offense at the pace and with the precision they demonstrated tonight against the league's best defense even the most pessimistic of observers wouldn't have predicted a series sweep.
The gold standard of Joe Johnson playoff performances has long been Game 4 of the Celtics series. Tonight's performance might have been better. Johnson's shot-making again drove his star performance but, just as impressively, he allowed the offensive system and his teammates to create easier scoring opportunities for him. The greatest frustration with Johnson has never been a lack of ability so much as his (and his coaches') stubborn insistence on making things difficult for himself. Not that the 84.2 TS% Johnson posted tonight represents a true talent level for a less dribble-heavy, less isolated Johnson but the foundation of some easy shots and a couple trips to the foul line transforms the more difficult shots Johnson can make at the end of otherwise unproductive possessions into daggers.
Now, the Hawks, even excepting Johnson, did make a lot of jump shots tonight as Jamal Crawford continued to score frequently and efficiently this playoff season. Jason Collins knocked down a couplejumpers set shots (and grabbed two offensive rebounds). Josh Smith made a contested baseline jumper to put the Hawks back up 10 with 3:42 left in the game. Many of these were shots Chicago wanted the Hawks to take. The Hawks may have to continue to make them to continue to win games in this series but it's the rest of the team's performance that convinces one that making or missing jump shots will determine the results of games rather than Chicago's margin of victory.
Given his lack of regular playing time over the past two seasons, Jeff Teague should probably be graded on a curve. But he needn't be. The 44:37 he played, the 10 points he scored on 11 shots (that 8 of those 11 came inside of 15 feet certainly contributed to the diverse offensive attack), the 5 assists he earned against a single turnover and the 27 shots Derrick Rose needed to score 24 points (even though the Bulls, as a whole, scored just as efficiently tonight against the Hawks as they did during the regular season) should earn the second-year point guard a passing grade on merit.
Johnson and Crawford's scoring success rendered Al Horford offensively peripheral in terms of shot attempts but his three offensive rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers complemented their efforts. At the other end of the floor, Horford's ten defensive rebounds were crucial as was his defense of the rim. Josh Smith ably assisted Horford on the latter count, blocking four shots as well as playing a key role in the consistent ball and player movement in the halfcourt offense in the first half and, when Smith appeared to have lost the plot in the second half, Zaza Pachulia played seven very solid minutes in relief, making a couple layups and grabbing five rebounds.
It was a team effort. An effort in service of a sound gameplan. Larry Drew should be proud on both counts. Though I suspect he'll be even happier with the energy the Hawks displayed. Energy that had early, tangible value. The Hawks didn't build their game-opening 9-0 lead through flawless execution. Two of their first four scoring possessions were sloppy and would have resulted in turnovers rather than points had the Hawks not been quicker than the Bulls to loose balls.
Energy, execution, shot-making. The streak is over. The Hawks lead the Bulls 1-0.
| Team | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| ATL | 87 | 1.184 | 55.8 | 20.5 | 25 | 11.5 | |
| CHI | 86 | 1.105 | 49.4 | 15.7 | 25.6 | 12.8 |
With the exception of a brief period early in the third quarter when the Chicago Bulls successfully isolated Joe Johnson on one side of the floor and Josh Smith took (and missed) three jump shots in three-and-a-half minutes, the Atlanta Hawks played a brand and quality of basketball that resembled what Larry Drew described this summer far more than that which they displayed during the bulk of the regular season. Had the Hawks, with any regularity, run motion offense at the pace and with the precision they demonstrated tonight against the league's best defense even the most pessimistic of observers wouldn't have predicted a series sweep.
The gold standard of Joe Johnson playoff performances has long been Game 4 of the Celtics series. Tonight's performance might have been better. Johnson's shot-making again drove his star performance but, just as impressively, he allowed the offensive system and his teammates to create easier scoring opportunities for him. The greatest frustration with Johnson has never been a lack of ability so much as his (and his coaches') stubborn insistence on making things difficult for himself. Not that the 84.2 TS% Johnson posted tonight represents a true talent level for a less dribble-heavy, less isolated Johnson but the foundation of some easy shots and a couple trips to the foul line transforms the more difficult shots Johnson can make at the end of otherwise unproductive possessions into daggers.
Now, the Hawks, even excepting Johnson, did make a lot of jump shots tonight as Jamal Crawford continued to score frequently and efficiently this playoff season. Jason Collins knocked down a couple
Given his lack of regular playing time over the past two seasons, Jeff Teague should probably be graded on a curve. But he needn't be. The 44:37 he played, the 10 points he scored on 11 shots (that 8 of those 11 came inside of 15 feet certainly contributed to the diverse offensive attack), the 5 assists he earned against a single turnover and the 27 shots Derrick Rose needed to score 24 points (even though the Bulls, as a whole, scored just as efficiently tonight against the Hawks as they did during the regular season) should earn the second-year point guard a passing grade on merit.
Johnson and Crawford's scoring success rendered Al Horford offensively peripheral in terms of shot attempts but his three offensive rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers complemented their efforts. At the other end of the floor, Horford's ten defensive rebounds were crucial as was his defense of the rim. Josh Smith ably assisted Horford on the latter count, blocking four shots as well as playing a key role in the consistent ball and player movement in the halfcourt offense in the first half and, when Smith appeared to have lost the plot in the second half, Zaza Pachulia played seven very solid minutes in relief, making a couple layups and grabbing five rebounds.
It was a team effort. An effort in service of a sound gameplan. Larry Drew should be proud on both counts. Though I suspect he'll be even happier with the energy the Hawks displayed. Energy that had early, tangible value. The Hawks didn't build their game-opening 9-0 lead through flawless execution. Two of their first four scoring possessions were sloppy and would have resulted in turnovers rather than points had the Hawks not been quicker than the Bulls to loose balls.
Energy, execution, shot-making. The streak is over. The Hawks lead the Bulls 1-0.
Sunday, May 01, 2011
Playoff Series Preview: Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
The Atlanta Hawks won their first round playoff series against the Orlando Magic because of a specific matchup advantage that allowed them to overcome the general gulf in regular season results between the two teams. The gulf in regular season results between the Hawks and the Chicago Bulls is even greater--18 games by record, 22 games by pythagorean record--and the Hawks are in possession of no such matchup advantage in this case.
Jason Collins played just 23 minutes against the Chicago Bulls this season, 17 of those in the first meeting (the one the Hawks won in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion) only because Josh Smith missed the game through injury. There's no Chicago player suitable for Collins to guard. Carlos Boozer, if/when he plays, would-pick-and-pop with impunity against Collins. Joakim Noah moves too well and too freely on the offensive end for Collins to keep up with him. The same goes for Taj Gibson or even Omer Asik to a lesser extent. Nor would having Collins guard any of them figure to have anywhere near the impact on Chicago's offense that his ability to play Dwight Howard man-to-man in the post had on Orlando's offense. Plus, playing Collins would only aid and abet Chicago's exaggerated strong-side defense against the Hawks. It's even easier to defend with two against one or with three against two when you begin the possession defending with five against four.
Collins could conceivably match up against Kurt Thomas to create a one-on-one wrestling/flopping match to run concurrent with a four-on-four game of basketball but even then Chicago would be at an advantage once a shot went up as Thomas rebounds and Collins doesn't. Zaza Pachulia would be a far better candidate for that particular role of uglying things up.
Kirk Hinrich didn't just defend Jameer Nelson effectively in the Orlando series, he provided some crucially efficient offense, scoring 10 points a game with an eFG% of 57.7%, earning 16 assists, and committing just four turnovers. His contributions, on both ends of the floor, will be missed if he cannot play in the series.
Yes, Derrick Rose averaged 25 and 9 in his three meetings against the Hawks, but Hinrich (primarily) made Rose work for those points:
Against the Hawks this season, Rose shot a lower percentage from the field, got to the line less often, and greatly increased his reliance on the three-point shot. At 30 years of age, Kirk Hinrich couldn't stay up on Derrick Rose and stay in front of him but he could use his combination of his residual athleticism, his size, his defensive skill, and his experience to do the latter more often than not. Jamal Crawford can do none of those things. Jeff Teague can attempt to counter Rose with his athleticism but suffers from an extreme experience* disadvantage. Joe Johnson has the size to play off Rose with the goal of staying in front of him but Johnson's lack of athleticism and defensive skill may limit his ability to challenge Rose's shots when the come.
*Not just in general but against Rose in particular. Teague played 28 minutes against Chicago this season, 12:50 of that matched up against Rose. Even that latter total may overstate Teague's experience as he shared the court with Rose for 1:24 of the second meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 21 points, and for 7:01 of the third meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 31 points.
Teague's inexperience could be just as detrimental on the offensive end, as the Bulls have isolated Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford from their teammates while thoroughly and successfully forcing them to take their contested jump shots from positions of Chicago's choosing.
Johnson and Crawford in the three meetings against Chicago compared to their results against the rest of the league this season:
That Chicago so successfully neutered Atlanta's two primary ball-handlers and allowed the third high-usage player, Josh Smith, to spot up repeatedly on the weak side (Smith attempted 56% (14 of 25) of his field goals against the Bulls from outside of 16 feet. He made three of them.), it's no surprise that the one good half of basketball the Hawks played against the Bulls this season was dominated by Al Horford. In the second half of the first meeting on March 2nd, the Hawks, led by Horford's 22 points (on 12 shots and 5 free throw attempts) and two assists, outscored the Bulls by 20 points. In the other five halves (including one very hot jump shooting half from the Hawks in Chicago), the Bulls outscored the Hawks by 68 points through a combination of excellent defense and rebounding.
Below average rebounding and a willingness to take long, two-point jump shots are and have long been hallmarks of this Atlanta Hawks team. This summer, the organization built a team and conceived of a game plan to beat the Orlando Magic. Their success in accomplishing that should be commended. I think the next week to 10 days will demonstrate that that accomplishment has brought the organization no closer to winning a championship, that using four of (effectively) thirteen roster spots on backup centers will further prove (as the regular season so often did) limiting against quality teams that do not employ Dwight Howard and the best the Hawks, thin to begin with and apparently thinned further by injury, can hope to do in this series is snap their 15-game, nearly 14-year losing streak in the second round of the playoffs.
Prediction: Bulls in 4
| head-to-head | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| CHI | 85 | 1.11 | 51.5 | 21.1 | 36.7 | 16.1 | |
| ATL | 85 | 0.916 | 46.1 | 17.9 | 19.1 | 15.3 |
Jason Collins played just 23 minutes against the Chicago Bulls this season, 17 of those in the first meeting (the one the Hawks won in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion) only because Josh Smith missed the game through injury. There's no Chicago player suitable for Collins to guard. Carlos Boozer, if/when he plays, would-pick-and-pop with impunity against Collins. Joakim Noah moves too well and too freely on the offensive end for Collins to keep up with him. The same goes for Taj Gibson or even Omer Asik to a lesser extent. Nor would having Collins guard any of them figure to have anywhere near the impact on Chicago's offense that his ability to play Dwight Howard man-to-man in the post had on Orlando's offense. Plus, playing Collins would only aid and abet Chicago's exaggerated strong-side defense against the Hawks. It's even easier to defend with two against one or with three against two when you begin the possession defending with five against four.
Collins could conceivably match up against Kurt Thomas to create a one-on-one wrestling/flopping match to run concurrent with a four-on-four game of basketball but even then Chicago would be at an advantage once a shot went up as Thomas rebounds and Collins doesn't. Zaza Pachulia would be a far better candidate for that particular role of uglying things up.
Kirk Hinrich didn't just defend Jameer Nelson effectively in the Orlando series, he provided some crucially efficient offense, scoring 10 points a game with an eFG% of 57.7%, earning 16 assists, and committing just four turnovers. His contributions, on both ends of the floor, will be missed if he cannot play in the series.
Yes, Derrick Rose averaged 25 and 9 in his three meetings against the Hawks, but Hinrich (primarily) made Rose work for those points:
| Rose | PPG | eFG% | %3PTA | FT Rate |
| vs. league | 25 | 48.7 | .236 | 29.9 |
| vs. Atl | 25 | 44.6 | .354 | 27.7 |
Against the Hawks this season, Rose shot a lower percentage from the field, got to the line less often, and greatly increased his reliance on the three-point shot. At 30 years of age, Kirk Hinrich couldn't stay up on Derrick Rose and stay in front of him but he could use his combination of his residual athleticism, his size, his defensive skill, and his experience to do the latter more often than not. Jamal Crawford can do none of those things. Jeff Teague can attempt to counter Rose with his athleticism but suffers from an extreme experience* disadvantage. Joe Johnson has the size to play off Rose with the goal of staying in front of him but Johnson's lack of athleticism and defensive skill may limit his ability to challenge Rose's shots when the come.
*Not just in general but against Rose in particular. Teague played 28 minutes against Chicago this season, 12:50 of that matched up against Rose. Even that latter total may overstate Teague's experience as he shared the court with Rose for 1:24 of the second meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 21 points, and for 7:01 of the third meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 31 points.
Teague's inexperience could be just as detrimental on the offensive end, as the Bulls have isolated Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford from their teammates while thoroughly and successfully forcing them to take their contested jump shots from positions of Chicago's choosing.
Johnson and Crawford in the three meetings against Chicago compared to their results against the rest of the league this season:
| Johnson | Pts/36 | eFG% | FT Rate | A/36 |
| vs. Chi | 13.7 | 41.3 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| vs. league | 18.7 | 48.4 | 17.2 | 4.8 |
| Crawford | Pts/36 | eFG% | FT Rate | A/36 |
| vs. Chi | 11.1 | 50 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| vs. league | 17.1 | 48.9 | 26.1 | 3.8 |
That Chicago so successfully neutered Atlanta's two primary ball-handlers and allowed the third high-usage player, Josh Smith, to spot up repeatedly on the weak side (Smith attempted 56% (14 of 25) of his field goals against the Bulls from outside of 16 feet. He made three of them.), it's no surprise that the one good half of basketball the Hawks played against the Bulls this season was dominated by Al Horford. In the second half of the first meeting on March 2nd, the Hawks, led by Horford's 22 points (on 12 shots and 5 free throw attempts) and two assists, outscored the Bulls by 20 points. In the other five halves (including one very hot jump shooting half from the Hawks in Chicago), the Bulls outscored the Hawks by 68 points through a combination of excellent defense and rebounding.
Below average rebounding and a willingness to take long, two-point jump shots are and have long been hallmarks of this Atlanta Hawks team. This summer, the organization built a team and conceived of a game plan to beat the Orlando Magic. Their success in accomplishing that should be commended. I think the next week to 10 days will demonstrate that that accomplishment has brought the organization no closer to winning a championship, that using four of (effectively) thirteen roster spots on backup centers will further prove (as the regular season so often did) limiting against quality teams that do not employ Dwight Howard and the best the Hawks, thin to begin with and apparently thinned further by injury, can hope to do in this series is snap their 15-game, nearly 14-year losing streak in the second round of the playoffs.
Prediction: Bulls in 4
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Is There a Silver Lining to the Game 5 Loss?
Short answer: no.
Longer answer: almost entirely not.
There was one positive thing on display last night, and one needn't even look selectively or qualify it:
Al Horford earned an assist on 6 of the 16 field goals his teammates made while he was on the court. Of those six assists, one resulted in a Zaza Pachulia layup to pull the Hawks within 20 points with 1:47 left in the first half. One resulted in a long two-pointer from Kirk Hinrich. One resulted in a Jamal Crawford three-pointer. The other three resulted in two long Josh Smith two-point jumpers and a Josh Smith three-pointer. Al's a good passer but iso-Al, at best, created slightly better than average jump shot opportunities for his teammates. Which brings us to the other two misleading items from the boxscore: Josh Smith's 22 points and Atlanta's 32 free throw attempts.
Josh Smith played 9:24 in the first quarter. He scored five points on six field goal and six free throw attempts. After taking (and missing) a 22-footer late in the shot clock on Atlanta's first offensive possession of the game, Smith took his next five shots inside of ten feet. He made one of those shots. A couple were good attempts that missed. A couple were taken right handed, and in desperation, after he failed to get to the basket going left. When Smith returned in the second quarter, the Hawks were down 19. Over the second and third quarters, Smith scored 17 points on 12 field goal and six more free throw attempts. His first two shots upon re-entering the game and 7 of those 12 field goal attempts would be taken at least 18 feet from the basket. Smith scored his points in a manner perfectly acceptable to the opposition, a manner that in no way could change the course of the game.
Similarly, the Hawks attempted an uncharacteristically large number of free throws but not so many of them before the game was decided. In the second quarter, the Atlanta Hawks attempted 19 field goals and not a single free throw. Of Atlanta's 22 second-half free throw attempts, 12 came in the final 12:48 of the game. Yes, poor defense and good Orlando shooting rendered the other 10 second-half free throw attempts pretty meaningless as well but, let me repeat, in the second quarter, the Atlanta Hawks attempted 19 field goals and not a single free throw. Larry Drew's response to falling behind early was to play his worst possible defensive backcourt and the players' response was to double-down on jump shots. The Hawks used 20 of their 38 first half field goal attempts outside of 16 feet. Only seven of those were three-point attempts. Another four shots were taken between 12 and 14 feet.
The loss was comprehensive and, in every way, a team effort.
Longer answer: almost entirely not.
There was one positive thing on display last night, and one needn't even look selectively or qualify it:
- Al Horford and Josh Smith combined for 25 rebounds in less than 70 minutes of combined playing time.
Al Horford earned an assist on 6 of the 16 field goals his teammates made while he was on the court. Of those six assists, one resulted in a Zaza Pachulia layup to pull the Hawks within 20 points with 1:47 left in the first half. One resulted in a long two-pointer from Kirk Hinrich. One resulted in a Jamal Crawford three-pointer. The other three resulted in two long Josh Smith two-point jumpers and a Josh Smith three-pointer. Al's a good passer but iso-Al, at best, created slightly better than average jump shot opportunities for his teammates. Which brings us to the other two misleading items from the boxscore: Josh Smith's 22 points and Atlanta's 32 free throw attempts.
Josh Smith played 9:24 in the first quarter. He scored five points on six field goal and six free throw attempts. After taking (and missing) a 22-footer late in the shot clock on Atlanta's first offensive possession of the game, Smith took his next five shots inside of ten feet. He made one of those shots. A couple were good attempts that missed. A couple were taken right handed, and in desperation, after he failed to get to the basket going left. When Smith returned in the second quarter, the Hawks were down 19. Over the second and third quarters, Smith scored 17 points on 12 field goal and six more free throw attempts. His first two shots upon re-entering the game and 7 of those 12 field goal attempts would be taken at least 18 feet from the basket. Smith scored his points in a manner perfectly acceptable to the opposition, a manner that in no way could change the course of the game.
Similarly, the Hawks attempted an uncharacteristically large number of free throws but not so many of them before the game was decided. In the second quarter, the Atlanta Hawks attempted 19 field goals and not a single free throw. Of Atlanta's 22 second-half free throw attempts, 12 came in the final 12:48 of the game. Yes, poor defense and good Orlando shooting rendered the other 10 second-half free throw attempts pretty meaningless as well but, let me repeat, in the second quarter, the Atlanta Hawks attempted 19 field goals and not a single free throw. Larry Drew's response to falling behind early was to play his worst possible defensive backcourt and the players' response was to double-down on jump shots. The Hawks used 20 of their 38 first half field goal attempts outside of 16 feet. Only seven of those were three-point attempts. Another four shots were taken between 12 and 14 feet.
The loss was comprehensive and, in every way, a team effort.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
History Awaits
In lieu of a standard game preview (plus your Game 4 recap, if needed) and in the interests of perspective, let us be reminded that the Atlanta Hawks:
Have the Hawks won the series yet? No.
If they do win tonight, would it be, by the franchise's standards, historic? Yes.
- Have not won a playoff series without holding home-court advantage since May 5, 1996
- Have not clinched a playoff series with a win on the road since that day
- Have not won a playoff series without playing the maximum number of possible games since May 1, 1987
Have the Hawks won the series yet? No.
If they do win tonight, would it be, by the franchise's standards, historic? Yes.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Atlanta Hawks 88 Orlando Magic 85
Boxscore
Either prolonged exposure to this series is creating an illusion of coherence or Game 4 was the most Hawks/Magic game of this Hawks/Magic series. There were the requisite 88 points scored by the winning team, the terrible shot selection (both teams), the terrible shot-making (Orlando only), the improbably great yet perfectly representative, in kind if not frequency, shot-making of Jamal Crawford, a routine 29 and 17 from Dwight Howard, Jason Collins fouling, 19 unproductive minutes from hideously unqualified Hawk frontcourt reserves, the Hawks building a significant lead despite not playing very good offense, the Magic erasing that lead despite not playing very good offense, and the Hawks prevailing through some combination of the aforementioned Crawford and Collins plus an inefficient but impressive Al Horford, Joe Johnson being efficient but unimpressive for long stretches, Kirk Hinrich making Hawks fans so happy Mike Bibby's gone, and Josh Smith being inexplicable but not completely useless.
Oh, and Gilbert Arenas scored 20 points on 18 shots in 22 minutes.
Years from now, when looking back on this series, I contend we may remember this game* for that last fact. The possessions where Dwight Howard scored (or turned the ball over slightly too often) against single coverage, where Jamal Crawford compressed an entire contract year performance into a single series, where the Magic went from shooting a statistically improbably low percentage from the perimeter to an almost physically impossibly low percentage from the perimeter, those will begin, those may have begun, to run together in this oddly competitive playoff series that has featured few (successful) adjustments.
Then again, perhaps I just can't make complete sense of a series that has played out almost exactly inversely to my expectations.
*Game 1 will be the game the Hawks got to the free throw line, Game 2 will be the game Larry Drew...well, we'll have to come up for a name for whatever that was he did, and Game 3 will either be the game Zaza Pachulia sort of headbutted Jason Richardson once or the game Jamal Crawford banked in the game-winning three. All of this pending Game 5 and (if necessary) Games 6 and 7.
| Team | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| ORL | 90 | 0.944 | 40.5 | 26.6 | 21.3 | 14.4 | |
| ATL | 91 | 0.967 | 50.7 | 16 | 17.9 | 17.6 |
Either prolonged exposure to this series is creating an illusion of coherence or Game 4 was the most Hawks/Magic game of this Hawks/Magic series. There were the requisite 88 points scored by the winning team, the terrible shot selection (both teams), the terrible shot-making (Orlando only), the improbably great yet perfectly representative, in kind if not frequency, shot-making of Jamal Crawford, a routine 29 and 17 from Dwight Howard, Jason Collins fouling, 19 unproductive minutes from hideously unqualified Hawk frontcourt reserves, the Hawks building a significant lead despite not playing very good offense, the Magic erasing that lead despite not playing very good offense, and the Hawks prevailing through some combination of the aforementioned Crawford and Collins plus an inefficient but impressive Al Horford, Joe Johnson being efficient but unimpressive for long stretches, Kirk Hinrich making Hawks fans so happy Mike Bibby's gone, and Josh Smith being inexplicable but not completely useless.
Oh, and Gilbert Arenas scored 20 points on 18 shots in 22 minutes.
Years from now, when looking back on this series, I contend we may remember this game* for that last fact. The possessions where Dwight Howard scored (or turned the ball over slightly too often) against single coverage, where Jamal Crawford compressed an entire contract year performance into a single series, where the Magic went from shooting a statistically improbably low percentage from the perimeter to an almost physically impossibly low percentage from the perimeter, those will begin, those may have begun, to run together in this oddly competitive playoff series that has featured few (successful) adjustments.
Then again, perhaps I just can't make complete sense of a series that has played out almost exactly inversely to my expectations.
*Game 1 will be the game the Hawks got to the free throw line, Game 2 will be the game Larry Drew...well, we'll have to come up for a name for whatever that was he did, and Game 3 will either be the game Zaza Pachulia sort of headbutted Jason Richardson once or the game Jamal Crawford banked in the game-winning three. All of this pending Game 5 and (if necessary) Games 6 and 7.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Playoff Game Preview #4: Orlando Magic (1-2) @ Atlanta Hawks (2-1)
TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)
TELEVISION: TNT, SportSouth
CHAT: Daily Dime Live
GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic
ATLANTA SUSPENSION/INJURY REPORT: Zaza Pachulia is suspended.
ORLANDO SUSPENSION/INJURY REPORT: Jason Richardson is suspended. Daniel Orton is out.
BY THE NUMBERS
OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -2, 178.5 o/u
PREVIOUSLY...the Hawks re-took the series lead with an 88-84 win on Friday night.
The Orlando Magic evened the series at one game apiece with an 88-82 win at home on Tuesday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won Game 1 of the series 103-93 in Orlando on Saturday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won three of four games from the Orlando Magic during the regular season, outscoring Orlando by 15 points cumulatively. The four meetings:
Orlando won 93-89 at home on November 8th
Atlanta won 80-74 in Orlando on December 6th
Atlanta won 91-81 at home two weeks later
Atlanta won 85-82 at home on March 30th
Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.
TELEVISION: TNT, SportSouth
CHAT: Daily Dime Live
GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic
ATLANTA SUSPENSION/INJURY REPORT: Zaza Pachulia is suspended.
ORLANDO SUSPENSION/INJURY REPORT: Jason Richardson is suspended. Daniel Orton is out.
BY THE NUMBERS
| 2010-11 | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% |
| ATL (off) | 89.3 | 1.061 | 50.1 | 20.9 | 23.4 | 13.5 |
| ORL (def) | 91.4 | 1.018 | 47.5 | 29.5 | 23.1 | 13.4 |
| 2010-11 | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% |
| ATL (def) | 89.3 | 1.07 | 49.5 | 27.3 | 25.4 | 12.3 |
| ORL (off) | 91.4 | 1.077 | 52.1 | 22.7 | 26.1 | 14.5 |
| head-to-head | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% |
| ATL | 86.4 | 1.021 | 47.3 | 18.3 | 23.4 | 15.3 |
| ORL | 86.3 | 0.988 | 43.6 | 24.9 | 26.6 | 14.8 |
OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -2, 178.5 o/u
PREVIOUSLY...the Hawks re-took the series lead with an 88-84 win on Friday night.
The Orlando Magic evened the series at one game apiece with an 88-82 win at home on Tuesday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won Game 1 of the series 103-93 in Orlando on Saturday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won three of four games from the Orlando Magic during the regular season, outscoring Orlando by 15 points cumulatively. The four meetings:
Orlando won 93-89 at home on November 8th
Atlanta won 80-74 in Orlando on December 6th
Atlanta won 91-81 at home two weeks later
Atlanta won 85-82 at home on March 30th
Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Atlanta Hawks 88 Orlando Magic 84
Boxscore
Gameflow
Highlights
Since a lot had to go right on Atlanta's final offensive possession to secure victory in Game 3...no.
Jamal Crawford:
You don't have to play well to win a playoff series if you make (and let) the other team play worse.
The Hawks had some excellent possessions on both ends of the floor in the final minute. At NBA Playbook, Sebastian Pruit looks at two of them. First, Al Horford's go-ahead bucket features beautiful player movement, ball movement, and spacing, three things lacking from most of Atlanta's second-half offensive possessions. Next, take a gander at Orlando's subsequent offensive possession for a vision of what Atlanta's defense might look like if the team's highest paid player didn't stop moving once he switches on a ball-screen. Also pictured, the more familiar sight of Al Horford chasing and harassing an opposing ball-handler (Hedo Turkoglu, in this case) all over the court, post-switch.
Stan Van Gundy on the culmination of that Orlando possession:
Gameflow
Highlights
| Team | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% | |
| ORL | 81 | 1.037 | 47.9 | 19.2 | 26.3 | 12.3 | |
| ATL | 81 | 1.086 | 45.7 | 17.3 | 24.4 | 9.9 |
Since a lot had to go right on Atlanta's final offensive possession to secure victory in Game 3...no.
Jamal Crawford:
"I just tried to get to my comfort zone, my sweet spot. I felt pretty good getting there. I thought I got a good look, and it just happened to go down for me."Larry Drew:
"I was hoping he would attack the basket. He was two or three feet behind the 3-point line. I didn't know if it was going in or not. I was just pretty relieved that it did go down."Dwight Howard:
"I think Jamal Crawford's shot was lucky and an angel had to be sitting next to him when he let that one go, but he hits tough shots."Since one thing had to go very right at the very end of Atlanta's final offensive possession to secure victory in Game 3, it's instructive to remember all the Hawks had to overcome to be in position for Jamal Crawford's prayer to get answered:
- Jason Collins injuring himself while flopping
- Zaza Pachulia crossing the line from irritant to participant in the 2011 equivalent of a fight (the definition of headbutt appears to have expanded to include "touching foreheads" as well) in a playoff game
- Lots of iso-Al
- Joe Johnson's 1-10 shooting in the second half
- Josh Smith making a heel turn into a spot-up shooter and purveyor of wild passes out of bounds
- Orlando making a greater number (8) and high percentage (28.6%) of their three-point shots than in the first two games of the series
- The reappearance of Josh Powell late in the second quarter, surely just coincidentally coinciding with Atlanta's biggest lead of the game getting halved in less than two minutes
You don't have to play well to win a playoff series if you make (and let) the other team play worse.
The Hawks had some excellent possessions on both ends of the floor in the final minute. At NBA Playbook, Sebastian Pruit looks at two of them. First, Al Horford's go-ahead bucket features beautiful player movement, ball movement, and spacing, three things lacking from most of Atlanta's second-half offensive possessions. Next, take a gander at Orlando's subsequent offensive possession for a vision of what Atlanta's defense might look like if the team's highest paid player didn't stop moving once he switches on a ball-screen. Also pictured, the more familiar sight of Al Horford chasing and harassing an opposing ball-handler (Hedo Turkoglu, in this case) all over the court, post-switch.
Stan Van Gundy on the culmination of that Orlando possession:
"It was a horrible shot."Evan Dunlap on Zaza Pachulia, the fight, and possible repercussions:
[F]ormer Magic center Zaza Pachulia gave Howard almost all he could handle in the low post, forcing Howard to work exceptionally hard for each field goal attempt. And he managed to do it without sending Howard to the foul line too often.At Peachtree Hoops, Jason Walker on the oddity of the familiar Hawks having a 2-1 lead in a playoff series:
And Pachulia may have swung the balance of the series more during an altercation with Richardson in the fourth period. Pachulia took an elbow from Howard--I couldn't tell if it was intentional or not, but it's worth noting Howard was not facing Pachulia when it happened--after fouling him hard under the basket. Pachulia shouted in frustration, Richardson apparently took exception to what was said, and the two shoved each other before their teammates stepped in. Richardson used his left hand to shove Pachulia in the face, which is sure to result in at least a one-game suspension. You may recall Quentin Richardson received a two-game suspension for a similar exchange with Charlotte Bobcats guard Gerald Henderson late in the regular season.
Jason Richardson and Pachulia are guaranteed to miss Game 4 on Sunday, though the league has yet to announce an official punishment. Howard's status is less clear. He earned a one-game suspension during the 2009 Playoffs for throwing an elbow at Samuel Dalembert, though in that instance he clearly intended to harm the Philadelphia 76ers center.
There were all there, in alarming number. All the things the Hawks fail to do, all the things the Hawks shouldn't do, all of the things that have cost them games time and time again were all over the Philips Arena floor tonight.
The Magic forced the Hawks into all of their bad habits and it's still 2-1, ATL.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Playoff Game Preview #3: Orlando Magic (1-1) @ Atlanta Hawks (1-1)
Alternate post title: Playoff Game Preview #3: Orlando Magic (0-1), Dwight Howard (1-0) @ Atlanta Hawks (1-0), Larry Drew (0-1)
TIP-OFF: 8pm (EST)
TELEVISION: ESPN2, ESPN3, Fox Sports South
CHAT: Daily Dime Live
GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic
ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Al Horford will be wearing protection on his bruised knee but will play when his head coach deems the team is neither "in a bit of a bind" nor going through a "good stretch."
Etan Thomas may miss the game due to a death in the family.
ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: Daniel Orton is out.
BY THE NUMBERS
OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -1.5, 181 o/u
PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic evened the series at one game apiece with an 88-82 win at home on Tuesday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won Game 1 of the series 103-93 in Orlando on Saturday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won three of four games from the Orlando Magic during the regular season, outscoring Orlando by 15 points cumulatively. The four meetings:
TIP-OFF: 8pm (EST)
TELEVISION: ESPN2, ESPN3, Fox Sports South
CHAT: Daily Dime Live
GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic
ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Al Horford will be wearing protection on his bruised knee but will play when his head coach deems the team is neither "in a bit of a bind" nor going through a "good stretch."
Etan Thomas may miss the game due to a death in the family.
ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: Daniel Orton is out.
BY THE NUMBERS
| 2010-11 | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% |
| ATL (off) | 89.3 | 1.061 | 50.1 | 20.9 | 23.4 | 13.5 |
| ORL (def) | 91.4 | 1.018 | 47.5 | 29.5 | 23.1 | 13.4 |
| 2010-11 | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% |
| ATL (def) | 89.3 | 1.07 | 49.5 | 27.3 | 25.4 | 12.3 |
| ORL (off) | 91.4 | 1.077 | 52.1 | 22.7 | 26.1 | 14.5 |
| head-to-head | Poss | Off Eff | eFG% | FT Rate | OR% | TO% |
| ATL | 87.3 | 1.01 | 47.6 | 18.5 | 23.2 | 16.2 |
| ORL | 87.2 | 0.98 | 43 | 24.9 | 26.6 | 15.1 |
OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -1.5, 181 o/u
PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic evened the series at one game apiece with an 88-82 win at home on Tuesday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won Game 1 of the series 103-93 in Orlando on Saturday night.
The Atlanta Hawks won three of four games from the Orlando Magic during the regular season, outscoring Orlando by 15 points cumulatively. The four meetings:
- Orlando won 93-89 at home on November 8th
- Atlanta won 80-74 in Orlando on December 6th
- Atlanta won 91-81 at home two weeks later
- Atlanta won 85-82 at home on March 30th
HoopSpeak: Koremenos: Atlanta's new pick and roll defense
Brett Koremenos pulls out the FastDraw to break down how the Hawks are effectively defending Orlando's 3/5 pick-and-roll.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Did Larry Drew Learn Anything From the Game 2 Loss?
He's not admitting so publicly. As reported by Michael Cunningham, Larry Drew has no regrets about sitting his best player for 21 minutes of the first half to stave of future foul trouble that never materialized, sitting his specialist starting center for eight-and-a-half minutes, and sitting his competent backup center for more than eleven-and-a-half minutes:
Will he resist the mystifying temptation? I don't know. Given that he largely moved away from the Horford Treatment and gave Josh Powell a non-playing role commensurate with his abilities as the season progressed, one could fairly concentrate real hard on Drew's ability to do so again while ignoring the incomprehensible (given the stakes) backsliding Tuesday night.
On the other hand, Drew quite clearly was far more interested in addressing the possibility of three of his players committing three first half fouls than how a Hawks lineup of Jason Collins, Josh Powell, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Kirk Hinrich is going to get a rebound three minutes into a playoff game.
Other reactions to Drew's coaching job in Game 2...
John Hollinger (Insider):
"When he picked up the early two fouls it put it us in a bit of a bind. You don’t anticipate your starters picking up two early fouls like that. When he went to the bench, had we hit a bad stretch at the start of the second quarter to the middle of second quarter, I would have put him back in. We actually had a really good stretch in the middle of second quarter, three minutes hit a bump in the road and jeopardize him picking up his third when we were going good."There's no tangible value in Drew making a public confession regarding his incompetence, he just can't play his worst players at the expense of his best player and better players for long stretches of the game.
Will he resist the mystifying temptation? I don't know. Given that he largely moved away from the Horford Treatment and gave Josh Powell a non-playing role commensurate with his abilities as the season progressed, one could fairly concentrate real hard on Drew's ability to do so again while ignoring the incomprehensible (given the stakes) backsliding Tuesday night.
On the other hand, Drew quite clearly was far more interested in addressing the possibility of three of his players committing three first half fouls than how a Hawks lineup of Jason Collins, Josh Powell, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Kirk Hinrich is going to get a rebound three minutes into a playoff game.
Other reactions to Drew's coaching job in Game 2...
John Hollinger (Insider):
[S]tudies have shown there may be some benefit to sitting a player in more dire foul trouble -- with more fouls than the quarter of the game, basically (i.e., two fouls in the first quarter, three in the second, four in the third) -- because such players will slack off on defense if they stay on the court.Zach Lowe:
Even by this logic, however, Horford should have been back on the court to begin the second quarter. Or, at worst, come back in with 8:44 left in the quarter after Jason Collins picked up his second foul.
Oh, did I leave that part out? Yes, the Hawks did the same thing with Collins, too -- their most valuable player this series because of his defense on Dwight Howard. Wanting to preserve Collins for the fourth quarter -- one he ended up not playing a minute in, because the Hawks were behind and Collins can't score -- Drew also sat Collins for the final 8:44 of the half with two fouls.
And Zaza Pachulia, the backup to those two players? Yes, really. Him too. He picked up his second foul with 11:22 left in the half and immediately hit the pine for the rest of the period. Can't be having players getting a third foul in the second quarter, after all, because if they get three more, they'll be forced to sit out. And there's nothing worse than having a player forced to sit out. Which is why Drew sat them out. My brain hurts.
Up 'til that point the Hawks had the game under control, with a 10-point lead. Soon things would change dramatically.
First, Josh Powell came in, after he mystifyingly was left activated while Etan Thomas didn't dress. (True story: I was talking to two NBA front-office types before a game this month and we were trying to come up with the worst player in the league. Without any prodding from me, both of them nominated Powell.)
Then came Hilton Armstrong, who managed to commit three fouls in his 5:20 stint but somehow stayed on the floor. Apparently the two-foul rule is waived for fifth-string centers.
Nonetheless, the damage was done. Orlando outscored the Hawks 26-10 over the final 8:44 of the second quarter, with Howard erupting for 17 points against Atlanta's scrubs.
There is no way to sugarcoat it: This is the most indefensible coaching decision I've seen this season. Horford played the entire second half and finished the game with -- you guessed it -- two fouls. This didn't come as a surprise to anyone who watched the Hawks this season. Horford has one of the lowest foul rates in the league at his position -- just 2.85 fouls per 40 minutes -- so even if he had stayed in the game with the two fouls he was at virtually no risk of fouling out.
Overall, when a real center was on the court the Hawks won Game 2 by 10 points. Unfortunately, Drew's personnel choices sabotaged them so badly in the second quarter that they missed a golden opportunity to grab this series by the throat.
Stat-heads have been going nuts for years about coaches overreacting to foul trouble, to the point that a consensus was almost forming. So folks took notice at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, when three researchers steeped in heavy math backgrounds presented a paper essentially arguing that coaches are right to take out starters in foul trouble early in games. After analyzing several years worth of play-by-play data, the researchers found that teams fared a bit worse when coaches asked guys to play through foul trouble in the first two or three quarters. No one is quite sure why, but the group behind the paper speculated that guys play too tentatively while in foul trouble, and that only the very worst bench players would play worse than a foul-plagued starter.Zach McCann:
But here’s the thing: Even the thrust of this research goes against the kind of caution Drew showed Tuesday. The researchers defined “foul trouble” as any scenario in which a player’s foul total is greater than the number of the quarter at a particular time in a game. A player with, say, three fouls in the second quarter would qualify as “in foul trouble,” but the researchers took him out of the “foul trouble” category if he still had three fouls during the third quarter.
By this definition, Horford was in foul trouble with two fouls in the first quarter but would have been safe to re-enter in the second quarter — and stay in the game until he picked up his third foul. And critics at the conference considered even this definition of “foul trouble” a bit too conservative.
Horford played the entire second half. He finished the game with two fouls. That wasn’t shocking. Horford is not a foul-prone guy; he averaged just 2.6 fouls per 36 minutes this season, and he has cut his foul rate every season he’s been in the league. Add in the relatively low quality of Atlanta’s backup big men beyond Zaza Pachulia, and I’m willing to bet even the most conservative math would suggest that Horford should have been on the floor for at a chunk of the second quarter.
Horford is Atlanta’s best player. The Hawks will have trouble beating a quality team four times in seven games if their best player logs just 26 minutes for no good reason.
@ZachLowe_SI @hoopinion Well that is stupid.Tom Ziller:
Larry Drew's mishandling of foul trouble and Horford's foul trouble in particular has been a constant lament for numerous Atlanta writers, but Tuesday's head-slapping (il)logic was just too much. Horford picked up his second foul just a shade over two minutes into the game. Drew unsurprisingly pulled him ... for the entire first half! That's right: Al Horford, the most valuable Hawk, played two minutes in the first half because Larry Drew didn't want him to be unavailable later on due to an ejection he was four fouls away from.
Horford played every second of the second half, and finished with ... two fouls. That's right -- a player who sat for 22 minutes in the first half due to foul trouble never actually sniffed foul trouble. He could have had five fouls in the first two minutes and not fouled out.
Drew has no concept of the reality that 22 minutes in the first half are just as valuable as 22 minutes in the second. It'd be hilarious if it weren't killing a playoff team as we speak.
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