Foundational Guesses: A 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks Season Preview

A summary for the busy reader
I'm going with 43 wins, with the understanding that small differences in player projections multiplied by varying minutes estimates for this mystery aggregation of familiar, aging quality and new bets made at confusingly short odds makes any Atlanta Hawks projection between 38 and 48 wins defensible. 

Sticking my pin in the mid-point of this (proposed) reasonable range isn't just pessimism in action. I think of the 2014-15 Hawks. I suspected they would be quite good upon Al Horford's return from injury. However, I also suspected that if they again suffered a serious injury (or injuries) they would divest themselves of good players in the final year of their contracts for future assets. (Remember, the Hawks made a belated, futile attempt in March 2014 to miss the playoffs.) Even if we take this summer's activity as a reluctance to rebuild for an entire season, that doesn't preclude one or more mid-season moves in pursuit of longer-term goals followed by actively pursuing free agents - an in-season, on-the-fly rebuild (a refresh? a trade-in?).

Bear in mind, the Hawks strongly considered blowing up the team nine months ago while, from December 16 through the end of the season (56 games), posting the same 55-win scoring differential as the 60-win 2015-16 team. This organization is conservative but not incurious. 

Foundational guesses
This is the first of what I intend to be (roughly) weekly dispatches published in this old, familiar space. Below, I lay out some suppositions about a roster I don't understand (or strongly believe in, frankly, though that's due more to skepticism than certain disbelief) that will provide a framework for me to revisit as evidence about this team accrues over the course of the season.

In rough order of importance, but with reflexive rejection of certainty intact:

D----- H-----
First, on the court: He hasn't been good since he was in Orlando five years ago. He hasn't been useless in the years since, but his value* is strictly as a rebounder and a rim protector. It's undeniable that no team in the NBA is positioned to gain greater marginal value from improved rebounding (offensive and defensive) than the Hawks. If some of those extra defensive rebounds he turn into transition offense**, then one of his remaining skills will have a positive knock-on effect for the offense. However, expectations for him, fair expectations for him at this point in his career, should be "healthy Tiago Splitter." 

*Q: How can you be a net negative on offense with a TS% of 60 and Usage Rate around 22%?
A: Turn the ball over on 17% of the possessions you use and get credit for an assist every 50 possessions you're on the court. 

**For maximum optimism, best not to linger too long on thoughts of the Hawks' wings dribbling.

The obvious questions about him fitting into a healthy, functioning team system will only be answered in time:

• Will he commit to rolling hard to the rim and, if so, how does this help the half-court spacing? 
• Will a higher volume of rim protection paired with Paul Millsap's defensive versatility be as effective* as the two-headed, all-court disruption Millsap and Al Horford provided? 

*My guess is yes, if this leads to the Hawks finally making an effort to suppress three-point attempts rather than living with allowing three-point attempts taken late in the shot clock. Of course, they won 60 games two seasons allowing the most three-point attempts in the league so there may be other alternatives in play that lay beyond my ken.

Regarding off the court issues, theories and speculation about team building and fan psychology: It hasn't become any less weird that the Hawks signed him before they knew* Horford was leaving. To be clear, offering Horford the max up front (and him taking it) to keep this team together (while low-key stockpiling assets as part of a shadow rebuild) wasn't a high-upside strategy or even a guarantee of establishing Mavericks East. It was a path that made sense given what we know about the front office, whereas locking up an inferior center, perhaps increasing the chances Horford chooses to leave, and quite possibly looking to trade Millsap for the best immediately available package (which could very well have led to additional, subsequent moves) made us question what we really knew.

*I'm not especially concerned the organization didn't know whether or not Horford was leaving. The chaos of conflicting reports in the minutes immediately before Horford announced he was going to Boston suggests that changing agents twice in the final year of one's contract doesn't necessarily lead to a smooth free agent process.

The pessimistic view (the one that came naturally to me) is that it was a move made out of fear of losing something and an absolute refusal to consider a rebuild (at least a year-long rebuild). More optimistic observers saw it as a calculated gamble wherein rehabilitating D----- H-----'s value would make Atlanta a viable free agent destination for current All-Star free agents, not just ex-famous people.

I have no doubt such a turn of events would benefit the perception of the organization*, but I think that has more to do with how far D----- H-----'s actual and perceived value has fallen than any three-dimensional chess the Hawks front office is playing. Of course, the world might be so irrational as to make stoking the faint flicker of H-----'s former fame more compelling than Kyle Korver and Millsap becoming All-Stars and DeMarre Carroll and Kent Bazemore becoming very rich men in Atlanta.

*Gag, "Basketball Club"

The "good for business" argument in favor of categorizing signing H----- as a clever touch moves me even less. Assuming "former All-Star" is a brand that provides a short-term box office boost, that's not a sustainable business model in an industry that keeps score to literally determine winners and losers.

Dennis Schröder
A series of rational decisions have brought us to the point where Dennis Schröder is the most important player on the Atlanta Hawks roster. The Hawks traded from their sole source of depth to pick up an extra first-round pick and hand the ball to their younger, cheaper point guard option.

The vast range of potential outcomes for Dennis Schröder, starting point guard, could keep the team in the vicinity of 50 wins or encourage the organization to go ahead and blow the team up before the trade deadline. The latter, darker scenario is more straightforward: Schröder doesn't get any better and, in an increased role, his offensive weaknesses adversely affect Korver, Millsap and Bazemore, making a below average offense a bad offense.

The silver lining of Schröder not yet being an above average point guard is that he can get to that level through any combination of potential improvements:

• Playing consistently good defense for 2000+ minutes
• Improving his finishing at the rim
• Getting to the free throw line more often
• Becoming a league-average three-point shooter
• Not locking into a pass/shoot decision when he turns the corner on the high pick-and-roll
• Developing sufficient chemistry with just D----- H----- to create a significant number of ultra-high percentage, cathartic field goal attempts

Assuming this is still a conservative organization, that Schröder's improvement could take various forms likely assures him of a full age-23 season to prove himself. Assuming Schröder hasn't gone corporate in the offseason, I fail to see how this state of affairs won't be tremendously entertaining.

The old, good reliables
Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver have been terrific (when fully healthy) for the Atlanta Hawks the last three seasons. With Millsap coming off a career year and Korver looking much more like himself in 2016, once his two off-season surgeries were several months behind him, continued belief in both is well-founded. However, it must be acknowledged that any positive prediction for the Hawks this season posits that Mike Budenholzer has unlocked previously latent value such that both will age relative to their performance as Hawks rather than to their career averages. Follow this line of inquiry far enough and one might conclude that their performances this season (assuming good health) will tell us as much about the Hawks' player development capabilities as the younger players.

To remain a top-5 defense (given how quickly the wing depth moves into totally unproven/totally unproven to be any good territory) the Hawks will need one more great defensive season from Thabo Sefolosha. There's also the chilling possibility that Sefolosha's ability to impersonate a useful offensive player until the ball leaves his hand (to shoot or dribble) may exceed the offensive value of any other wing coming off the bench.

Kent Bazemore, rich man
There isn't anyone easier to root for or to celebrate getting paid. The Hawks spent a pretty penny to lock in the relative certainty of a familiar and average-ish player for the next couple years. Given the free agent alternatives, it's an eminently fair decision made better by how the Hawks used the 21st pick in the draft. If Bembry develops in his first two season, the Hawks, with he and Bazemore, will have something like Teague/Schröder 2.0 and the ability to trade from a position of strength.

Rookies
With the exception of 27-year-old, experienced professional, yet NBA rookie Malcolm Delaney, I expect the Hawks rookies to be, at least initially, limited to garbage time appearances and short reserve stints when a regular rotation player gets a night off. Patience will be key and, given the amount of time invested in Mike Scott, Mike Muscala and Tim Hardaway, Jr. over the last three seasons, I expect the two first-round picks to get plenty of it from the organization. 

Above, I mentioned expectations for Bembry to develop into a younger, cheaper replacement* for Bazemore by 2018-19. Taurean Prince might be on a slightly more accelerated timeline to become a more active version of Mike Scott by the start of next season.

Delaney will be the most immediately interesting rookie, not just guaranteed backup point guard minutes but fourth-quarter point guard minutes should Dennis Schröder still demonstrate his capability for existential malaise during work hours.

*From a team-building point of view, I can't overemphasize the importance of not spending on wings unless they're regularly going to make All-NBA teams. You can get fairly close to the value of the tenth best wing in the league with a good 3-and-D (or playmaking-and-D) wing for a fraction of the cost and use the savings to invest in a primary ball-handler/scorer and two-way bigs.

Other centers
Should D----- H----- not be rejuvenated and remain a slightly above average, one-way player, the Hawks are going to have redundant defensive centers taking up at least 20%* of the roster. Mike Muscala's floor spacing will look a little more valuable, and the question I wrestled with this summer: "Would you rather have D----- H----- or Edy Tavares and $70 million to spend on other players?" will be posed more broadly, even if it's rarely considered polite to utter in public.

*25% if Tiago Splitter is ever healthy. (I have no expectation that Tiago Splitter will be physically able to contribute this season. Any quality minutes he provides of the bench will be found money.)

Kris Humphries is also on the roster. He is 31 years old and has never been a good NBA player. Yes, he played 56 good minutes for the Hawks in the playoffs last season.

The system
Despite all of my uncertainty and my disappointment that the Hawks have not addressed their biggest weakness* in either of the last two off-seasons, I'm fairly confident the Hawks retain a solid foundation. I just can't envision a healthy version of this roster imploding over an 82-game season.

Through three seasons, one fundamentally hampered by injury, one a magical** example of possibility, and one a mix of the two, I'm extremely confident that Mike Budenholzer's offense will create (over the course of the regular season at least) enough open three-point shots (even if too many of them are created for slightly below average three-point shooters) to win the math against all but elite opposition.

*Three-point shooting ability

**No storybook ending, granted

On the other end of the court, even though adjustments will need to be made in how they swap Al Horford's defensive versatility for more traditional defensive center play, the Hawks will give a lot of minutes to above average and very good defensive players at four positions. There's slightly more certainty to good defense (at least if you're aiming for competence, first, then excellence, if applicable) and I expect this team to take comfort in that, grinding out results while in the process of integrating new elements.

Let's watch basketball and find out.

Sunday Morning Projections

I'm going to hold off on writing about the off-season in any depth until at least one transaction is official. In the meantime, back of the envelope BPM noodling for the 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks, based on the incomplete knowledge we have:

Player	Minutes	OBPM	DBPM
Schroder	2500	-0.5	-0.5
Korver	2400	0.5	0.4
Bazemore	2294	-1.5	1.5
Millsap	2700	1.1	3.1
Howard	2100	-1.0	2.0
Backup PGs	1436	-2.6	-1.3
Sefolosha	1700	-2.0	2.7
Hardaway Jr	1000	-0.5	-1.2
Bembry	500	-2.0	-1.0
Scott	1000	-0.4	-1.8
Prince	600	-0.7	-2.3
Muscala	600	-1.2	1.0
Splitter	550	-1.9	1.1
Tavares	300	-3.5	1.5
(blank)
TOTAL	19680	-3.8	3.9

This would roughly be a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense, good for 41 wins, give or take a few. I'll update as the summer progresses.

Notes:

• These are conservative, weighted heavily toward career averages, but tilted toward Hawks career averages (so maybe that's a really optimistic projection for Tim Hardaway, Jr.)
• The above projects a bounce-back season for Dwight Howard
• I plugged in established replacement-level backup point guard Norris Cole's career averages as a placeholder for the backup point guards the Hawks will eventually acquire
• Just guessing for Bembry and Prince, but unless the roster composition changes I don't think they'll play enough minutes for my ignorance when it comes to projecting rookies to have much of an impact on team-level projections

A Distant Voice Previews the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals

The 60-win Atlanta Hawks are underdogs in this series.
   
This makes some kind of sense. David Griffin made the gold-standard GM move this summer by signing LeBron James as a free agent. He made a big, bold offseason trade to add Kevin Love. He made two good in-season trades in a three-day period* to add JR Smith and Iman Shumpert and a first-round pick while simultaneously shedding Dion Waiters**, then acquire Timofey Mozgov to fill an Anderson Varejao-shaped void for the OKC first-round pick they got for Waiters and another future, protected first-rounder. 

The Cavaliers are good. They have the ten-time reigning best player in basketball, they’ve consistently been in the news for positive and/or interesting transactions, and they’re much better on offense than defense.
 
*Coming six and eight days, respectively, after Cleveland’s second loss to the Hawks this season.

**WOAT
 
The 2014-15 Hawks came into being in the summers of 2012 and 2013. They have done nothing interesting off the court (which, sadly, isn’t the same as saying they’ve had nothing interesting off the court done unto them) since. They balance an obviously above-average offense with an atypical above-average defense. The Hawks lack* a franchise player, and they lack direct, or indirect, franchise success.

*NOTE: Does not apply to Al Horford during the 2015 Eastern Conference Semifinals.  

What’s different about the Hawks this year? They’re healthier, mostly, and that enabled them to trust the processes they put in place. Feel that excitement. No? Try this...

The Atlanta Hawks are going to win the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 games.

So. Hmm. How?
   
Short version: the Cavaliers are a poor defensive team that doesn’t match up well with the Hawks.
   
Long version: Lacking the best player in the series (clearly), the Hawks will counter with the second- through sixth-best players. While David Blatt et al. face the unenviable task of identifying Cleveland’s best five-man unit for this series on the fly, Mike Budenholzer knows. More importantly, he has slooooowly demonstrated a willingness to deploy his five-best players for long minutes.  

Cleveland has a choice: prop up their subpar point-of-attack defense with a heavy dose of the Thompson/Mozgov duo (added benefit on the other end of the floor: many offensive rebounds) to protect the paint, or play a single big in order to spread the floor on offense to punish the Hawks for helping each other as much on defense as they do on offense, and reap the whirlwind on the defensive end.  

Neither option is ideal for Cleveland because neither option offers a satisfactory answer to the question, “Who does Kyrie Irving attempt to guard?” Does he defend the Atlanta point guard, leaving Cleveland vulnerable to the pick-and-rolls that bedeviled the last three times the teams met during the regular season? Does he attempt to hide on DeMarre Carroll, which doesn’t really seem a recipe for limiting Atlanta’s open three-point attempts or layups, and may create the only scenario wherein Mike Budenholzer encourages offensive rebounding?  

The Cavs' issues cascade from there: JR Smith* or Shumpert forced to chase Korver for 38 minutes, multiple Cavs forced to cross-match in defensive transition, every potentially devastating instance of LeBron helping on D carrying a risk that could be exploited by one pass from the pass-happiest team in the league.

*Smith has serious defensive scapegoat potential in this series, even if he does little wrong, if Korver starts making 47% of his 3PTAs again.
 
Beyond that, as long as Irving is limited by injury, the Cavaliers become easier for the Hawks to guard. Basically, the Hawks should defend LeBron James the way they defended John Wall in Games 5 and 6:

• Let him create for himself (jumpshots encouraged)
• Do not help off shooters in the corners
• Live with everyone but Kyrie Irving taking above-the-break threes
• Do help late at the rim

Well, actually: LeBron James is much better than John Wall and the rest of what's left of the Cavs is arguably better than Wall's supporting cast.

Well, actually redux: the latter difference is not as great as the defensive difference between the two teams. That’s where the Hawks have to punish Cleveland.  

However, Cleveland’s defensive limitations pose a risk to the Hawks in this series. Unlike their matchup against the Bizarro Playoff Wizards, the Hawks will have to turn the math of two- and three-point shots into their favor this series. Cleveland will likely be willing to give up pick-and-roll created layups rather than pick-and-roll created threes. The Hawks need to make the same trade when LeBron creates in isolation.  

Furthermore, a willingness to let LeBron James attempt to single-handedly outscore the Hawks might, in one fell swoop, help mitigate Thabo Sefolosha’s absence, help keep DeMarre Carroll out of potentially devastating foul trouble, and limit the available energy for James to be an effective help defender. 

These Hawks will never be as good as they were from November 28th to January 30th this season* but that Hawks team is not their opponent. Nor is the Cavs team that didn't get above .500 for good until January 16th, or the Cavs team that went on its own 32-7 run (with 21 double-digit wins). What's left of the Hawks just has to be better than what's left of the Cavs for four of the next seven games.

*And nothing should diminish the unadulterated joy 33-2 brought so many right-thinking people. Not even whatever the Warriors might do to the Hawks in the NBA Finals.

It's Been Pleasant

For the first time in five years, I'm not going to write about the Atlanta Hawks' first game of the regular season. For the first time in five years, I have no specific plans to write about the Atlanta Hawks at all.

First of all, I appreciate the irony of stepping away from the keyboard at the precise moment the franchise made a decision I've been advocating since 2008, just as the Hawks presume to be interesting and new in ways they haven't been over much of the last five seasons.

I'm here because the Kansas City Kings left town when I was 8 years old. As a result of that, I channeled my basketball interest into the college game. I have many great memories because of college basketball but, as a fan and writer, it turned out to be an aesthetic and intellectual dead end.

Secondly, I deeply appreciate everyone who took the time to read anything I wrote about the Hawks.

When I began writing about the Hawks, I didn't have a lot of things in my life that satisfied me. I didn't have anything that provided me a useful and interesting outlet. Writing about the Hawks, interacting with Hawks fans, and entering the genuinely pleasant community of the NBA blogosphere was (this is in retrospect, not something I consciously understood or appreciated at the time) profoundly important in my life.

So I'm also here because Atlanta Hawks fans were passionate and generous with their time and attention to one who adopted their team. Whether you agreed or disagreed with me, whether you let me know of said agreement or disagreement, the semi-public platform I created was an important and valuable part of my life for five years.

What comes next are the thank yous I probably should have expressed more often in the moment. Feel free to read the following, skim it for you name, or skip to the end, as applicable.

I'm here because, after one season of blogging about the Hawks here, Matt Bernhardt invited me to start a Hawks blog at SB Nation. Without that encouragement and opportunity, there's a very good chance I would drifted in yet another different direction after that first season.

I'm here because of the example Henry Abbott set at TrueHoop and the investment of his time, energy and talent in establishing the TrueHoop Network.

I'm here because Kevin Arnovitz called me, told me that Henry Abbott was starting a network of NBA blogs under the TrueHoop banner, and asked if I'd like to write about the Hawks for them. The call surprised and flattered because of my admiration for Kevin, first through his writing at ClipperBlog, even moreso as I've gotten to know him over the years.

I'm here because, on that first phone call, Kevin told me they were getting Kurt Helin and Mike Kurylo for the TrueHoop Network. Both fine writers and, if it hadn't been for Kurt and Mike taking me up on my offer to contribute at CourtsideTimes.net, I might never had made the transition to writing about the NBA.

I'm here because of the people who have made up the TrueHoop Network, because of the colleagues I saw once a year (if that), because of those I've never met in person, all of whom remain comfortably simpatico. There are tens of people I now know with whom I fondly remember sharing a drink, a conversation, and laughs and look forward to doing so again at some unspecified moment in the future. I'm not so foolish as to start a list and leave off one of the many, many friends I've made through the TrueHoop Network. Thank you all.

I'm here because the NBA editors at ESPN.com are really super, generous with both their time and assignments. There is no doubt the opportunities I received there, from being a part of the TrueHoop Network, added legitimacy to the time I spent writing about basketball. Same goes for Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton inviting me to share a little corner of the Atlanta Hawks section of three editions of the Basketball Prospectus annual.

The longtime and old-time Hawks bloggers deserve their own paragraph. A special thank you to Drew and Larry and CoCo and Jason and Kris for the conversations and arguments we've shared, as well as the unexpected delights the Hawks have provided us over the last five years amidst the somewhat more predictable* disappointments. Hawks blogs are as strong as they've ever been, in my opinion, and I look forward to getting to know better the emerging writers. I think this is the spot where I should say I'll still be on Twitter, pitching woe and delight in unequal measure as the Hawks play.

*The Hawks will win 47 games this season. Josh Smith will not be traded, but Devin Harris will.

I'm here because Buddy Grizzard, James Goeders, and Mark Phelps stepped up and recapped a bunch of games this season. Without their efforts, Hoopinion probably would not have survived the lockout.

I'm here because a part of me -- not the best part, mind you -- draws energy from critics, willful mis-readers, and those troubled by my conscious rejection of certainty. One doesn't follow this path for five years because of the money. One follows this path due to some need for attention.

I'm here because Alison Weldon has been tremendously patient regarding the amount of time I've spent watching, thinking, and writing about the Atlanta Hawks over the last five years.

I'm going because I'm marrying Alison and because I found a real job. These two things are related, and wonderfully so. Miraculously, really, when it comes to the former. Both of those developments are an outgrowth of the work I've done here. Hoopinion has served as a way station between an old, uncertain self and one embracing adult life, for better and worse. Mostly better. It is bittersweet that, as my life has developed in these wonderful ways, it crowds out the time necessary to give this effort, which I also love, the attention it deserves.

I don't think I'm going because I'm running low on valuable things to say about the Hawks, but I've been spectacularly, hilariously wrong before and better to leave the party early than for your host to find you passed out on the bathroom floor. Or so I've heard.

Regarding that, if anyone reading this is on the fence about starting out in this, or a similar arena, especially anyone young, my advice is to write. Make yourself do the work. The rewards will often seem ephemeral, at best. Then, looking back, they appear vast. And unending.

If you bet it hit rim, proceed to the window and collect your money.

Thanks for reading, everybody. It's time for me to go. 

The TrueHoop Network Held a Mock Draft

With the stipulation that we make predictions rather than express preferences and given the first 22 selections made by my colleagues, I have the Hawks taking Royce White.

1. New Orleans: Anthony Davis (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247.com)
2. Charlotte: Thomas Robinson (Spencer Percy, Queen City Hoops)
3. Washington: Bradley Beal (Kyle Weidie, Truth About It)
4. Cleveland: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Colin McGowan, Cavs: The Blog)
5. Sacramento: Harrison Barnes (James Ham, Cowbell Kingdom)
6. Portland: Andre Drummond (Sean Highkin, Portland Roundball Society)
7. Golden State: Dion Waiters (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)
8. Toronto: Jeremy Lamb (Sam Holako, Raptors Republic)
9. Detroit: John Henson (Dan Feldman, PistonPowered)
10. New Orleans: Damian Lillard (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247.com)
11. Portland: Kendall Marshall (Sean Highkin, Portland Roundball Society)
12. Milwaukee: Perry Jones III (Jeremy Schmidt, Bucksketball)
13. Phoenix: Terrence Ross (Ryan Weisert, Valley of the Suns)
14. Houston: Tyler Zeller (Jared Dubin, Hardwood Paroxysm)
15. Philadelphia: Terrence Jones (Carey Smith, Philadunkia)
16. Houston: Austin Rivers (Robert Silverman, KnickerBlogger)
17. Dallas: Quincy Miller (Connor Huchton, The Two Man Game)
18. Minnesota: Meyers Leonard (Steve McPherson, Hardwood Paroxysm)
19. Orlando: Tony Wroten (Eddy Rivera, MBN)
20. Denver: Andrew Nicholson (Kalen Deremo, Roundball Mining Company)
21. Boston: Jared Sullinger (Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub.com)
22. Boston: Moe Harkless (Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub.com)
23. Atlanta: Royce White (Bret LaGree, Hoopinion)
24. Cleveland: Arnett Moultrie (Colin McGowan, Cavs: The Blog)
25. Memphis: Fab Melo (Red Coleman, 3sob.com)
26. Indiana: Marquis Teague (Tim Donahue, 8p9s)
27. Miami: Jeff Taylor (Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak)
28. Oklahoma City: Draymond Green (Royce Young, Daily Thunder)
29. Chicago: Will Barton (Matt McHale, Bulls by the Horns)
30. Golden State: Jared Cunningham (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)

Given the same situation, I would prefer Draymond Green and Evan Fournier to White. This is where you tell me I'm wrong.

3-on-3: Wherein the Gang Previews the Series

My series preview has been posted but for the full scope of opinion we need to empanel those who have kept Hoopinion running this season:

1) What is the key to Atlanta winning the series?

James Goeders: Bench scoring. In the two losses to Boston this year the Hawks' bench averaged 10.5 points in games decided by 5 points total. In the win last Friday (albeit mostly against the Boston reserves) the bench put up 30.

Buddy Grizzard: Desire. In 2008, an up-and-coming Hawks team came of age by pushing the eventual champions to 7 games. Four years later, the Celtics are old and the Hawks are in their prime. Will this be a repeat of 1988 when an aging Celtics team defeated a Dominique Wilkins-era team at its peak? Does Joe Johnson care about his legacy, or does he only care if the checks clear? Injuries are no excuse because Boston has been hit just as hard as the Hawks.

Mark Phelps: Rebounding and Penetrating. With the absence of Horford and Pachulia, the Hawks will need big games on the boards from Josh, Marvin, and a Rent-a-Center. The ability to draw fouls and force the Celtics to play their second line could also be a big swing in the Hawks’ favor.

2) What is Boston's greatest potential advantage?

James Goeders: Guard play. In the two Boston wins, Rondo averaged 10 points and 16.5 assists. Even in the Hawks victory Avery Bradley had 28 and Keyon Dooling had 17. Can Teague and Hinrich slow down Rondo and Ray Allen?

Buddy Grizzard: Playmaking. The Hawks consistently take low-percentage shots because busted isolations lead to Joe Johnson shooting a fadeaway over a double team or Josh Smith chucking a 22-footer as the shot clock expires. Rajon Rondo's ability to set up teammates allows the Celtics to score more efficiently. Jeff Teague, like Rondo, is great at attacking the basket. Both are suspect outside shooters. But Teague will likely never approach Rondo's ability as a floor general.

Mark Phelps: Rondo. In the two games he played against the Hawks, Rondo doled out an amazing 33 assists. In one game, he was able to make up for a poor shooting performance with 20 dimes. With the Celtics at full speed, Rondo’s the pilot.

3) Series prediction: Who wins? In how many games? Why?

James Goeders: The Hawks in 7. I think people will overplay the experience angle, especially since the Hawks have now advanced to the second round the last three seasons, and overlook the youth and matchup problems that the Hawks provide (Josh Smith vs Kevin Garnett, Joe Johnson vs Paul Pierce).

Buddy Grizzard: Celtics in 6. First of all, this is the biggest coaching mismatch in the postseason. Secondly, the Celtics will get inside the Hawks' heads and control the tempo and tone of the series. Josh Smith will be frustrated trying to score inside against the Celtics defense and float to the perimeter, exactly where they want him. Joe will try to play hero ball and fail.

Mark Phelps: At the risk of being too much of a homer, I’ll say Hawks in seven.
This should be a dogfight to the last second, but the home court advantage and surges in April by Josh and Marvin make me (cautiously) optimistic.

Series Preview: Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics

In a series between two teams not only evenly matched but also similar, slight aberrations can have significant effect. This is a series where Zaza Pachulia's left foot or Ray Allen's right ankle might be as important as home-court advantage. That this is a series where neither team can be expected to score 90 points in a game unless the fix is in only exaggerates the importance of events on the margin between winning and losing. At that margin, Jannero Pargo or Willie Green or Vladimir Radmanovic or Keyon Dooling or Mickael Pietrus or Sasha Pavlovic might play a greater role, in the moment, than Josh Smith or Joe Johnson or Jeff Teague or Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce or Rajon Rondo.

It's going to be a tight series. Be prepared not to be satisfied with the explanations. Why may lie just beyond the grasp.

However, there are three factors which seem like probable flashpoints for the series:

The Hawks must take advantage of the shots they make: Sometimes stubbornly simplistic analysis carries the weight of truth. In a series between two teams who don't try to rebound* their own misses, possessions figure to be very binary. Beyond that, the Hawks are going to take jump shots. The Celtics are capable of encouraging the Hawks to take jump shots (but not three-pointers) while still contesting the shots.

The Hawks are going to make shots the Celtics are happy with them taking. The Hawks have to take advantage of that and win the games where they make low-percentage shots. Hard done though they were by injuries, the Hawks were very fortunate to have Willie Green and Jannero Pargo shoot as accurately as they did over 66 games. If they can keep it up for as many as seven more games, this series becomes even more difficult for the Celtics.

*Atlanta ranks 26th in offensive rebound percentage (with Zaza Pachulia and Al Horford posting the highest rates on the team). Boston ranks 30th.

Larry Drew has to figure out the best available lineup and ride it hard: Pachulia's health will determine how tied Drew's hands end up being. There's not a Hawk who can close out effectively on Kevin Garnett. There's not an interior pairing that can close out effectively on both Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass without encouraging one of those two to head into the post. There's not an interior pairing that will be uniformly capable of defending the pick-and-roll.

Related, the Hawks have the option of playing two small guards, better to defend Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. In doing so, they aren't forcing Rondo or Bradley to defend Joe Johnson on the other end. With Kevin Garnett sure to bait Josh Smith into taking as many jumpers as possible, Joe Johnson can't come a clear second to Paul Pierce in this series if the Hawks are going to win. Johnson doesn't necessarily have to best Pierce, but the typical Joe Johnson playoff performance (poor shooting, reduced scoring, fewer assists, more turnovers) isn't going to cut it.

All that being said, if the Hawks find something that works, they're in great shape because Boston cannot score consistently. Especially if Ray Allen is limited physically.

In a battle between mediocre offenses and good defenses, the team that converts turnovers into transition points will prevail: Only five teams turned the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions than the Celtics did this season. Converting those into scoring chances before Boston's defense gets set, either by mitigating the low-percentage shots they figure to take in the half-court or by getting some free points they don't typically get at the free throw line, will be key for the Hawks.

The Hawks don't turn the ball over very often. Boston, however, was fourth in the league in forcing turnovers this season. If Boston turns the Hawks over, then an Atlanta offense that struggles to score against good defenses will collapse entirely against the Celtics. The Hawks could get invaluable offensive contributions from Pargo, Green, reigning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month Ivan Johnson, Tracy McGrady or Vladimir Radmanovic. All of those guys, save Green, also turn the ball over on at least 14% of the possessions they use.

The prediction: The only things that would surprise me in this series were for it to last fewer than six games or for a team to score 100 points in a game that lasts less than three overtimes. Neither team has the offensive firepower to control a game, much less the series. With a healthy Zaza Pachulia, this series would be, from Atlanta's perspective, at worst a toss up. I'm not confident Pachulia can have a positive impact on the series.

If he can't, that puts tremendous pressure on the undersized Ivan Johnson, the oversized Jason Collins, the physically inconsistent Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic, and the thoroughly inconsistent Marvin Williams to be as productive in doing the dirty work as Pachulia managed in Al Horford's absence. Absent Pachulia, it also puts tremendous pressure on Larry Drew to make good use of mismatched pieces. Against Boston's defense, against Pierce's and Garnett's remaining talent and desire, even wise or clever decisions are not certain to pay off. Celtics in 6.

How Many Wins Do the Hawks Need For a Top 4 Seed?

By James Goeders

Now officially one-third through with the season, the Atlanta Hawks are sitting at 16-6, and on pace for their best single-season win percentage in franchise history. Coming off of a five-game road trip (the first of three road trips lasting five or more games in this shortened season) where the Hawks went 4-1, there is a much better outlook to the season than when Al Horford went down two-and-a-half weeks ago. When news of the injury was first released, many outlets completely wrote off the Hawks. At best, they said, the Hawks were looking at an 8 seed in the playoffs. Going back to the 2001-02 season, the average win percentage of the 7 and 8 seeds are .505 and .483 respectively (meaning 33 or 32 wins would be necessary this season to secure one of the two lowest seeds). With the turmoil in Orlando, and no one outside of Chicago or Miami looking that dominant in the Eastern Conference, I do not think it would be unreasonable to still strive for a top 4 seed. The jump to a 4 seed has required a winning percentage of 0.572 (38 wins) over the past decade. Taking into account two standard deviations gives 43 wins to "guarantee" a top 4 seed this season, which will require the Hawks go 27-17 the rest of the way.

Now where do those 27 wins come from? The Hawks have 24 home games and 20 road games left. Of those 24 home games, 12 are against teams who currently have losing records (including 2 against Detroit, as well as games against Washington, New Jersey, and Charlotte). The Hawks are 8-1 at home this season, so hopefully against the weaker teams they can win 10 of 12. Of the other 12 home games, we'll be less ambitious and hope to win 8 of 12. This leaves 9 more wins to go to hit our mark. The road schedule is similar in difficulty, with 10 of 20 teams currently having losing records. Winning on the road is tough in the NBA, though the Hawks do have the 5th best road record in the league so far, but we'll hope for 6 of 10 against the lesser teams on the road. That means that the Hawks just need to steal 3 of the other 10 road games (2 against Orlando, then games against the Lakers, Portland, Chicago, Indiana, Miami, Denver, the Clippers, and Philadelphia). Of course we can only use the past decade as a guide, it obviously cannot guarantee anything, but if the Hawks finish the year 43-23 I can't foresee them being any lower than the 4 seed, meaning a first round playoff series with probably Boston, Philadelphia, or Indiana and putting off Chicago or Miami to the second round.

Official 2011-12 Season Predictions

The Hawks are going to make the playoffs. No disrespect to Lawrence Frank and Dwane Casey, nor the organizations that made the sound decisions to hire them, but there are only ten teams I expect to try and make the playoffs in the East this season. Furthermore, I expect only two of those ten teams -- Miami and Chicago -- to be especially good, with a very compact group of teams finishing third through ninth in the conference.

I think the Christmas Day games lend early support to this opinion. Without Paul Pierce, the Celtics started Sasha Pavlovic and had Marquis Daniels, Keyon Dooling, and Chris Wilcox in the rotation. The Knicks are concerned about replacing Iman Shumpert and Jared Jeffries. The Magic willingly traded Brandon Bass for Glen Davis, further weakening the supporting cast for (the possibly unsettled) Dwight Howard who might finish the season there. I'm not sure that Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Indiana aren't all going to finish ahead of at least one of Boston, New York, and Orlando.

So I'm optimistic about the Hawks for external reasons. And for internal reasons as well. The Hawks have two All-Star caliber players in the frontcourt, an essentially new two-way point guard, and two potentially above average wing players who should be healthier than last season. Yes, the bench is old and, until Kirk Hinrich returns, pretty much lacks anyone who can be counted on to do two things well every night but the bottom third of the Eastern Conference could be really terrible, thus allowing the Hawks, if* they take care of business, to marshal their strength for the sterner tests they'll face. Who knows, maybe Larry Drew's ability to make use of Jason Collins can extend to some of the other one-dimensional old players on the roster.

*a big if, I know

I anticipate the Hawks winning between 31 and 35 games. If they win more that, great, they'll probably be competing for the third seed in the East. That will be fun. If they win fewer than that, then the organization may finally have to come to terms with the work that needs to be done to create a championship-caliber team and decide to get a head start on the summer of 2013. Those efforts should be interesting in the short term and might provide the greatest long-term benefit to the franchise since Billy Knight drafted Al Horford.

SB Nation: Ziller: Previewing the Southeast Division

Tom Ziller predicts no playoffs for the Hawks:

The Hawks are the team in the NBA least likely to earn a repeat trip to the playoffs. Atlanta was the East's No. 5 seed last season and even knocked out the Magic in the first round. But that was largely smoke and mirrors. Atlanta had a negative efficiency differential, which means that based on scoring margin, the Hawks were a below-.500 team. The Hawks won a good share of close games, but when they lost, they usually got blown out of the gym. By slaying Orlando, Larry Drew showed himself to be a pretty good coach. But so long as Joe Johnson plays like he did last season -- average, basically -- this team's backcourt just isn't good enough to ensure another postseason bid. Al Horford and Josh Smith can only do so much.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 Now On Sale

Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle were more than a match for the compressed pre-season as Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is available for purchase. In the Hawks chapter, Bradford explores why the Hawks defy their projection system and, for the third year in a row, I'm proud to have submitted a sidebar item.

It's only $9.98 to download. Not yet convinced? Read the free samples.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Atlanta Hawks Player Profiles

John Hollinger's player profiles for the Atlanta Hawks (Insider) are officially up today. For those of you without Insider access, today's 5-on-5 is all about the Hawks.

ESPN.com: 5-on-5: Breaking down Game 6 between Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks

This morning I join Michael Wallace, Jared Wade, John Krolik, and Braedan Ritter to discuss the Hawks/Bulls series and make predictions about Game 6:

5. In Thursday's Game 6 in Atlanta ...

A. The Bulls finally end this series.
B. The Hawks extend it to Game 7.

Bret LaGree, Hoopinion: B. The Hawks extend it to Game 7. At the risk of making my clean sweep of being wrong about the Hawks throughout the playoffs come to a painful end, I'll pick the Hawks. The home crowd may be enough to prop up Teague and Johnson and Horford and Smith even if the minutes catch up with them in the fourth quarter again.

Playoff Series Preview: Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls

The Atlanta Hawks won their first round playoff series against the Orlando Magic because of a specific matchup advantage that allowed them to overcome the general gulf in regular season results between the two teams. The gulf in regular season results between the Hawks and the Chicago Bulls is even greater--18 games by record, 22 games by pythagorean record--and the Hawks are in possession of no such matchup advantage in this case.

head-to-head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%		TO%
CHI	85	1.11	51.5	21.1	36.7		16.1
ATL	85	0.916	46.1	17.9	19.1		15.3

Jason Collins played just 23 minutes against the Chicago Bulls this season, 17 of those in the first meeting (the one the Hawks won in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion) only because Josh Smith missed the game through injury. There's no Chicago player suitable for Collins to guard. Carlos Boozer, if/when he plays, would-pick-and-pop with impunity against Collins. Joakim Noah moves too well and too freely on the offensive end for Collins to keep up with him. The same goes for Taj Gibson or even Omer Asik to a lesser extent. Nor would having Collins guard any of them figure to have anywhere near the impact on Chicago's offense that his ability to play Dwight Howard man-to-man in the post had on Orlando's offense. Plus, playing Collins would only aid and abet Chicago's exaggerated strong-side defense against the Hawks. It's even easier to defend with two against one or with three against two when you begin the possession defending with five against four.

Collins could conceivably match up against Kurt Thomas to create a one-on-one wrestling/flopping match to run concurrent with a four-on-four game of basketball but even then Chicago would be at an advantage once a shot went up as Thomas rebounds and Collins doesn't. Zaza Pachulia would be a far better candidate for that particular role of uglying things up.

Kirk Hinrich didn't just defend Jameer Nelson effectively in the Orlando series, he provided some crucially efficient offense, scoring 10 points a game with an eFG% of 57.7%, earning 16 assists, and committing just four turnovers. His contributions, on both ends of the floor, will be missed if he cannot play in the series.

Yes, Derrick Rose averaged 25 and 9 in his three meetings against the Hawks, but Hinrich (primarily) made Rose work for those points:

Rose	PPG	eFG%	%3PTA	FT Rate
vs. league	25	48.7	.236	29.9
vs. Atl	25	44.6	.354	27.7

Against the Hawks this season, Rose shot a lower percentage from the field, got to the line less often, and greatly increased his reliance on the three-point shot. At 30 years of age, Kirk Hinrich couldn't stay up on Derrick Rose and stay in front of him but he could use his combination of his residual athleticism, his size, his defensive skill, and his experience to do the latter more often than not. Jamal Crawford can do none of those things. Jeff Teague can attempt to counter Rose with his athleticism but suffers from an extreme experience* disadvantage. Joe Johnson has the size to play off Rose with the goal of staying in front of him but Johnson's lack of athleticism and defensive skill may limit his ability to challenge Rose's shots when the come.

*Not just in general but against Rose in particular. Teague played 28 minutes against Chicago this season, 12:50 of that matched up against Rose. Even that latter total may overstate Teague's experience as he shared the court with Rose for 1:24 of the second meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 21 points, and for 7:01 of the third meeting, entering the game with the Hawks down 31 points.

Teague's inexperience could be just as detrimental on the offensive end, as the Bulls have isolated Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford from their teammates while thoroughly and successfully forcing them to take their contested jump shots from positions of Chicago's choosing.

Johnson and Crawford in the three meetings against Chicago compared to their results against the rest of the league this season:

Johnson	Pts/36	eFG%	FT Rate	A/36
vs. Chi	13.7	41.3	6.5	4.7
vs. league	18.7	48.4	17.2	4.8

Crawford	Pts/36	eFG%	FT Rate	A/36
vs. Chi	11.1	50	3.7	3.6
vs. league	17.1	48.9	26.1	3.8

That Chicago so successfully neutered Atlanta's two primary ball-handlers and allowed the third high-usage player, Josh Smith, to spot up repeatedly on the weak side (Smith attempted 56% (14 of 25) of his field goals against the Bulls from outside of 16 feet. He made three of them.), it's no surprise that the one good half of basketball the Hawks played against the Bulls this season was dominated by Al Horford. In the second half of the first meeting on March 2nd, the Hawks, led by Horford's 22 points (on 12 shots and 5 free throw attempts) and two assists, outscored the Bulls by 20 points. In the other five halves (including one very hot jump shooting half from the Hawks in Chicago), the Bulls outscored the Hawks by 68 points through a combination of excellent defense and rebounding.

Below average rebounding and a willingness to take long, two-point jump shots are and have long been hallmarks of this Atlanta Hawks team. This summer, the organization built a team and conceived of a game plan to beat the Orlando Magic. Their success in accomplishing that should be commended. I think the next week to 10 days will demonstrate that that accomplishment has brought the organization no closer to winning a championship, that using four of (effectively) thirteen roster spots on backup centers will further prove (as the regular season so often did) limiting against quality teams that do not employ Dwight Howard and the best the Hawks, thin to begin with and apparently thinned further by injury, can hope to do in this series is snap their 15-game, nearly 14-year losing streak in the second round of the playoffs.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

Playoff Series Preview: Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic

It's tempting to focus on the season series between the Hawks and the Magic because it signifies difference. Over the past two seasons, culminating in the playoff embarrassment last Spring that, somehow, only cost Mike Woodson his job, the Orlando Magic were so superior to and such a bad matchup for the Atlanta Hawks that one didn't really need to think about the relationship between the two teams. It was clearly defined.

The three Hawk victories (and the resultant +15 scoring margin) this season changed the definition of that relationship. That change got our collective attention because carried the element of surprise. I'm just not sure that it carries as much import with regard to this playoff series as we've tempted to give it.

The Orlando Magic won eight more games than the Atlanta Hawks. In terms of scoring margin, the Magic were 17 games better than the Hawks. As valuable as Jason Collins' presence and Vince Carter's absence* are to the Hawks, that's a lot of weight for matchups to carry. Matchups that weren't, during the four regular season meetings, exactly representative of the teams that will play four-to-seven games starting tonight.

Mike Bibby started three of the four games. Jameer Nelson started two of the four games. As did Chris Duhon.

*In the past, Joe Johnson couldn't stay in front of Vince Carter and Carter's combination of size and quickness limited Al Horford's effectiveness as a perimeter defender. Horford can use his size to play off point guards, keeping them in front of him but still able to challenge shots at the rim. Carter could attack that space Horford had to surrender to the quicker player and finish at the rim even when challenged by Horford. Jason Richardson doesn't pose a similar problem.

However much weight one gives it, Jason Collins defending Dwight Howard in the post is the key matchup in this series. The danger for the Hawks is that Jason Collins only provides value while defending in the post and Dwight Howard doesn't have to stay there. I expect Orlando to use whatever combination of Howard drawing fouls on Collins in the post and forcing Collins to defend the pick-and-roll to attempt to neutralize Collins.

From Atlanta's perspective, the greatest worry is not Howard playing pick-and-roll with Jameer Nelson. Kirk Hinrich can stay in front of Nelson (though, in doing so, he might sacrifice some open jumpers, shots Derrick Rose and Tony Parker made with regularity in beating Atlanta over the final month of the season) and, even though Collins likely can't keep up with Howard on the move, the Hawks would have both Al Horford and Josh Smith available to help protect the rim.

The greatest worry for the Hawks has to be Howard running pick-and-roll with Hedo Turkoglu against the defensive tandem of Collins and Smith. Even assuming full health for Smith's right knee (which I do not), expectations for him fighting through screens on the perimeter must, to be realistic, be low. If Smith forces Collins to switch on those screens, I suspect it will quickly become apparent that:

• Though Hedo Turkoglu is not an especially good basketball player at this point, he can still break down Jason Collins off the dribble either to create a shot for himself or use Atlanta's subsequent defensive rotations to create an open three-pointer for a teammate.
• Though Josh Smith is a good defender, he can neither defend Dwight Howard in the post nor stop him him from getting to the basket.

I have yet to mention the Atlanta offense. Here's why:

Atl v. Orl	Off Eff
2009-10	94.8
2010-11	98.7

The success the Hawks have had against the Magic this season has little to do with their offense which has been slightly less awful in winning three of four games from the Magic this season than it was in losing seven of eight games last season. The Hawks will take the long, two-point jump shots that Orlando wants them to take and the combination* of Orlando's good transition defense and the presence of Dwight Howard will only exacerbate Atlanta's dependence on the least efficient shot in basketball.

*The more Jamal Crawford plays point guard instead of Jeff Teague will only play into Orlando's defensive system.

Even as Orlando's offense has fallen from the fourth-most efficient in the league last season to the 14th-most efficient this season, they have remained the third-most efficient defensive team in the league because of their ability to keep opponents from taking high percentage shots and forcing them to take low-percentage shots.

To reiterate, Orlando focuses on forcing opponents to take long two-point jump shots and are sufficiently good at doing it to have the league's third-best defense. The Atlanta Hawks, against all opponents this season, from the Chicago Bulls to the Cleveland Cavaliers, used a higher percentage of their field goal attempts on long two-point jumpers than Orlando's opponents.

Team	at rim		3-15 feet		16-23 feet		3PTA
	%FGA	eFG%	%FGA	eFG%	%FGA	eFG%	%FGA	eFG%
ATL	25.5	63.6	22.1	41.3	30.1	43.3	22.2	52.8
ORL (opp)	24.8	63	24.1	39	28.6	37.7	22.5	52.4
League	29.7	64	23	39.1	25	39.4	22.2	53.8

Larry Drew is to be commended for getting the Atlanta Hawks to defend the Orlando Magic in a rational and effective manner but he has done nothing to make it easier for the Hawks to score against the Magic. Just as the former provides eminently reasonable hope that the Hawks can be competitive in this series, the latter tempers expectations for a series victory.

The Orlando Magic are the better team. The Orlando Magic have the better and more experienced head coach. The Orlando Magic have the best player in the series. The Orlando Magic know who their best player is and they play through him. None of the internal candidates for best Hawks player enter the series in perfect health, possibly, none of them enter the series even in good health.

I don't think the Atlanta Hawks will be embarrassed again but I simply don't think they're good enough for Jason Collins and Kirk Hinrich to make a sufficient difference over the course of a seven-game series, especially if Orlando does not provide a stationary and constant tactical target.

I expect low-possession, low-efficiency, competitive games. However, I don't expect the series to be quite so close.

Prediction: Magic in 5