ESPN.com: Summer Forecast: Best and Worst Coaching Changes

More results of the voting by the panel of experts are revealed. This time the categories are best and worst coaching changes of the off-season. The Atlanta Hawks' decision to replace Mike Woodson with Larry Drew finished second* in the latter category.

The voting results are augmented by a few hundred words from me about the decision to hire Drew. My premise:

It's easy to understand skepticism over the Hawks' hiring of Larry Drew as their new head coach. As with any first-time head coach, Drew carries a certain burden of proof. But a larger share of the doubt appears to be cast upon (and reasonably so) those who made the decision and the degree to which they've presented Drew an opportunity to succeed.

Should you wish to read the whole thing...

*The decision also got a vote as the best coaching change. In fact, every coaching change received votes in both categories.

Qualifying Expectations For the New Offense, or, What About Defense?

Disclaimer: Trying to spin multiple posts over consecutive days out of a single subject is made difficult by the presence of astute readers and colleagues.

Larry Drew's as-yet-unseen motion offense is great fun to contemplate and project upon but, from a practical perspective, it's important to remember that, over the course of 82 games, the Hawks were excellent offensively. Now, that didn't count for much in two playoff series against top-3 defenses and it's perfectly fair to hope and argue for a less-predictable offense to pay dividends in that context even if it's not as efficient over 82 games.

I'll admit that it's hard for me to imagine these Hawks running a motion offense. My conception of the players has been significantly influenced by Mike Woodson's offense. Evn if Drew's offense helps Horford and Williams and Josh Smith fulfill their abilities it might stifle the abilities of Jamal Crawford and, to a lesser extent, Mike Bibby. For all the reasonable criticism Woodson received, he probably didn't get sufficient credit for getting career years out of Flip Murray and Crawford. In addition to the improbability of Crawford repeating a career year at the age of 30, his skills, because they are so individualistic, are unlikely to translate perfectly to a motion offense. The lack of basketball instincts that so limits him as defender and rebounder could further suppress his production in 2010-11 if he's asked to do more in a team context. On the other hand, his ability to create shots for himself and his fine work on the pick-and-roll with Al Horford could serve as a fine safety net.

That Drew's system doesn't figure to be as extreme a low turnover offense worries me with regard to the team's already dire transition defense. As does the fact that all the public attention has been directed toward improving a generally effective offense and (unless switching every screen was an even worse idea than it seemed at the time) the average-at-best defense has not been addressed at all. Unless Jeff Teague plays a lot and proves a useful defender, it's difficult to see how Larry Drew will coax a significantly better defensive performance out of the same personnel that frustrated Mike Woodson.

It wasn't just Woodson that capitulated in the Orlando series. The players exhibited a substantial unwillingness to compete in difficult/uncomfortable circumstances as well. I fear that weakness may still be lurking within. In the best of circumstances, it's difficult to execute at a high level over the course of a season. The Lakers don't always deign to run the triangle but they can get away with taking the ocassional shortcut because they're good defensively, they have Kobe Bryant, and Phil Jackson's there to point them in the right direction. The Hawks have none of those lodestars with which to re-orient themselves should they go off-track.

There's a general human reluctance to embrace change. Whether or not the Hawks give themselves up to a new system and stick with it through the difficult patches is a fair question. With the relative lack of commitment (considering the amount and length of his contract) the organization has shown Drew, his ambition to remake the team's offensive identity is laudable. The new offense could well make the 2010-11 team more interesting* than the 2009-10 team. It may not remake the team to the same degree addressing the team's defensive weaknesses, both in terms of personnel and tactics, might.

*There's a certain selfish appeal to this that I try and repress.

More 2010-11 Schedule Analysis

Josh Robbins of the Magic Basketblog on The Orlando Sentinel website has a comparison of the back-to-back games on the respective 2010-11 schedules of the Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, and Chicago Bulls.

There's a handy chart there delineating all of this but the main points of interest are as follows:

• The Hawks and Bulls play the maximum allowed number of back-to-backs: 23.
• In 16 of the Hawks 23 back-to-backs, the second game is on the road.
• The Bulls play on the road in just 11 of the 23 second games of their back-to-backs.
• The Bulls also get 4 home-home back-to-back games.
• Orlando plays three fewer back-to-backs than the Hawks will but the Magic play 17 of the 20 second games on the road.

2010-11 Atlanta Hawks Schedule Released

Here's the press release detailing the Atlanta Hawks 2010-11 schedule.

Observations:

• 14 scheduled national TV appearances (7 on NBA TV, 4 on ESPN, 3 on TNT) one more than last season.
• 23 back-to-back games. None of those back-to-backs include two games at home. Five back-to-backs include two games on the road.
• Larry Drew's head coaching career will start with games @Memphis and @Philadelphia, but he'll have two months of experience under his belt before his first West Coast trip.
• With only seven road games over the last six weeks of the season, a strong finish appears likely.
  

Some Stray Thoughts On Perspective

In what may be turning into a recurring feature here, a new post inspired by comments to a previous post.

While offline most of the weekend (but, as ever, thinking about the relevant issues), I'm currently wondering if a more disciplined approach to the relatively minor summertime day-to-day issues involving the Atlanta Hawks might result in a more appropriate and interesting tone of voice for the blog.

For example, with regard to the biggest issues facing the team in the 2010-11 season...

• I don't know exactly what Larry Drew's offense will look like or which players will (and which players will not) benefit from it.
• I don't know if implementing a less extreme and rigid defensive philosophy will mitigate the team's perimeter defensive shortcomings.
• I don't know if Jeff Teague can play point guard in the NBA.

Because such vital questions are unresolved and likely to remain so for months, frustration over the lack of a clear, long-term approach to constructing a roster takes on a greater importance than it perhaps should, especially with regard to the short-term, on-court success of the team; a situation perhaps exacerbated by the long-term goals of this blog which themselves seem to necessitate, in the short-term, producing a certain (and consistent) volume of work about a very narrow subject. That's no excuse for sometimes confusing cleverness for substance or failing to write through equivocation to produce a nuanced thought. That it isn't easy is, I hope, as much an indication of the potential value of the work (within an admittedly narrow context) as my own limitations.

Either way, less overtly personal content will return shortly.

NBA TV To Begin Announcement of 2010-11 Schedule Tonigh

There's an hour-long special at 7pm (EDT) tonight on NBA TV to announce the national television schedule for the NBA Tip-Off ’10, Christmas Day, and Martin Luther King, Jr. Day games.

Rick Kamla hosts with Chris Webber, Steve Kerr, Kenny Smith, and Craig Sager joining him.

The full 2010-11 NBA schedule will be released next Tuesday, August 10th.

A Narrow Defense Of Doing Nothing Right Now

First, the latest rumor...

Marc Stein reports that the Hawks are:

[T]he only team with a confirmed "live" interest in O’Neal. There are limitations to that interest.

Stein, again:

Shaq, at last report, still wants assurances of a healthy slice of playing time as well as a salary that starts above the $5.8 million mid-level exception, which can be achieved through a sign-and-trade with Cleveland. No team out there, including Atlanta, is known to be willing to pay Shaq more than $2 million for next season.

Shaq for $2 million next season makes far more sense than spending the MLE for X number of years on Shaq. Not that it's any more realistic than Joe Johnson agreeing to a 4-year, $60 million extension last Summer, but, hey, it's worth a shot. Presumably, were this highly unlikely agreement to come to pass, the Hawks would increase their collection of valuable trade chits from 0 to 1 (Zaza Pachulia) were they willing to risk using Jason Collins or similar dreck the 20-odd nights Shaq doesn't dress.

It shouldn't be a surprise that retaining Jason Collins is the sum total of reported free agent activity by the Hawks following the signing of Joe Johnson to a max contract. Even someone with a terrible record for prognostication could see it coming:

Signing Joe Johnson to a max deal will necessitate making future decisions based on finances rather than basketball...

The upshot, of course, is that the Hawks probably don't need Shaq or any other famous, aged center. And not just in the "they need a backup* for Marvin Williams, a point guard** in whom we can be confident, and a capable perimeter defender*** more" sense. The up-post Zaza Pachulia reference is likely one of the few**** you'll have noticed this Summer. Odd considering the number of centers who have been speculated about. So I offer this reminder from Zaza's season review:

[T]he Hawks [are] +5.3 per 100 possessions (Off Eff: 104.7 Def Eff: 99.4) over the last two seasons (totaling 963 offensive and 960 defensive possessions) with Horford and Pachulia playing alongside each other.

Sure it would be fun if the Hawks had the financial flexibility so as to speculate about them getting involved in the fire sales of Ramon Sessions or Brandon Bass but it's also important to keep in mind what the team has. Or, to quote from my (overly pessimistic, it turned out) preview of last season:

It’s tempting, in the transactional flurry of the off-season, to assume that if a team’s not busy getting better, it’s getting worse. When all that exists is potential, reward can overshadow risk and the act of reconstituting a 47-win team fails to capture the imagination.

Locking in the core of a 53-win team in such as way as to limit its chances of someday winning a championship isn't appealing but the 8- or 10-win player the team presumably needs to compete for a top-4 seed in the East in 2010-11 doesn't appear to be available right now. Throwing more money at non-existent roster problems for PR purposes isn't going to create many future opportunities to marshal what few resources the team currently possesses in service of real improvement.

*A job which should be easily filled on the cheap.

**Could be Jeff Teague.

***Could also be Jeff Teague.

****I blame Drew's absence.

Summing Up Summer League

Hawks v. D-League Select Boxscore

Hawks v. Timberwolves Boxscore

Player-by-player, here's what I've learned from Summer League...

Jeff Teague: No one could stay in front of him in Vegas. I think that'll be mostly true in real NBA games too though the execution of team defensive concepts will likely complicate matters for him. Given the uncertainty over what Larry Drew's motion offense will look like exactly, it's difficult to project Teague's sophomore season. It's fairly to easy to imagine him, if surrounded by shooters, being effective turning the corner on ball-screens and getting into the lane. Conversely, it's easy to imagine the shooters the Hawks employ having the ball in their hands rather than Teague. The slope of Teague's learning curve could further be influenced by how often the Hawks run which will probably have more to do with defensive rebounding than anything Teague can control. Patience is advised with regard to Teague just as much as it is with regard to Larry Drew.

Jordan Crawford: Crawford can play. Given the composition of the roster, his youth, and his degree of physical development he probably won't get the opportunity to produce much in 2010-11. So, in the short term, Crawford might be reduced to shining in garbage time therefore breaking up the occasional monotony of the 82-game schedule or diminishing concerns over a serious injury to Jamal Crawford or Joe Johnson. Looking farther ahead, if he can convince the team that he can, at the very least, be ready in 2011-12 to replace the production Mo Evans provides, grant the organization some modicum of flexibility to improve at the point or at small forward next Summer.

Sergiy Gladyr: He's clearly not ready to contribute at this point. It's difficult to gauge his skill level based on his performance in Vegas. Either he's not skilled or he was trying too hard to impress. I lean toward the latter as Summer League games tend to be ridiculously sped up and disorganized affairs. Either way, he's 20 (almost a full year younger than Jordan Crawford) and has time to develop. If, in three or four or five years, Gladyr can come over and knock down shots often enough to excuse the physical limitations that make him unlikely ever to be a plus defender or rebounder then he'll have been good use of a draft pick.

Pape Sy: It's easy to see how Sy impressed in a workout setting. He's long and fast. Outside of that (and granting that he was limited by injury) Sy showed little in Vegas. Using one's speed to drive into the lane at the far end of being under control, running into someone, and drawing a foul works fine in Summer League but has negligible value in the NBA unless one possesses the strength and body control of Dwyane Wade or Corey Maggette. Sy does not. He never looked likely to finish. His ball-handling would be acceptable for a wing defender but he's no sort of point guard despite spending most of his time playing that position in Vegas. Were he Gladyr's age there might be reason for optimism. But he's not. To put things in perspective, he's only two years younger than the forgotten Viktor Sanikidze and a year younger than Cenk Akyol.

Richard Hendrix: Hendrix is the only guy free agent on the Summer League roster who could add something to the regular rotation: post offense from the second unit. On the other hand, he would also be one more guy in the rotation whose value is primarily offensive. With no demonstrable organizational emphasis on finding complementary pieces, I doubt Hendrix will signed to be the fourth big guy in the rotation with a defensive caddy for him getting the fifth spot. Maccabi Tel Aviv seems more plausible.

Alade Aminu: There's no way to evaluate Aminu's defensive ability in this context. His offensive skills are rudimentary at best. He's definitely long and active and would be a fine fifth big guy with a non-zero chance to develop into a rotation player.

Jermareo Davidson: Davidson is not dissimilar to Aminu though he plays lower to the ground and, largely due to being three years older, has a lower center of gravity that could be more useful defending in the post in the short term. Given that Aminu has at least an offer to play in France and Davidson has some NBA experience, Jermareo might be the more likely member of the 2010-11 Hawks.

Trey Gilder: Gilder would be a fine backup for Marvin Williams. Because he can't shoot and because the Hawks appear to be unconcerned with Mo Evans' struggles to defend small forwards, it's not especially likely he'll get the gig. If Gilder could shoot, he'd be a borderline NBA starter.

James Augustine: He's another plausible fifth big man, one who would definitely provide support with defense and rebounding if little else. There's some potential entertainment value were Augustine and Zaza Pachulia to share the floor and give the team a two-headed hard-fouling monster.

Randolph Morris: I don't believe anyone learned anything new about Randolph Morris.

Landon Milbourne: Like Morris, Milbourne's presence on the team appeared to more to do with where he attended high school than his likelihood of making the team. I hope he caught the attention of a European scout in his limited minutes.

Luke Jackson: Jackson's presumably headed back to Europe. His time as a potential NBA player has passed though having a professional basketball career after undergoing multiple back surgeries says something for his skill level.

ESPN.com: Daily Dime: Teague Brings Speed To Hawks

My contribution to today's dime concerns Jeff Teague:

Despite being an organization that prizes continuity, the Atlanta Hawks are set to introduce a new element in their attempt to improve their record for a sixth consecutive season. That element: Jeff Teague's speed. While it's unlikely new coach Larry Drew shares Mike Woodson's aversion to young guards, Teague's larger role has more to do with Drew inheriting the same problems Woodson faced with the backcourt. Mike Bibby is aging, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford both need the ball a lot, and none of the three can effectively guard opposing point guards.

Recognizing his necessity to the coming season, the Hawks built their summer league team around Teague to the extent they didn't bring a backup point guard. His performance in carrying a load both heavier and different than he'll have in the regular season has been mixed.

On Monday night, Jeff Teague more than held his own against O.J. Mayo, simultaneously exhibiting aggression and sound decision-making while scoring 16 points and earning three assists (several potential assists failed to materialize when his teammates missed open shots). On Wednesday afternoon, Teague failed to exhibit the same control and was outplayed by D-Leaguer (granted, Spurs-affiliated D-Leaguer) Curtis Jerrells. He repeatedly forced things when he got in the lane, and although that got him to the line 12 times, it also led to nine turnovers, slightly offset by three assists, this time a fair representation of his playmaking.

Teague wasn't pleased with his play Wednesday. "I didn't have a good showing tonight. I'm glad we've got three more games. If this was our last game, I'd go home frustrated," he said. That Teague was looking forward to his next opportunity soon after a disappointing performance has to encourage the Hawks who, as Teague put it, "want me to go hard every day and work hard and get better."

Less encouraging might be that, through two games, Teague has scored 16 of his 31 points at the free throw line. With no one yet able to stay in front of him in Las Vegas, he's had little opportunity or reason to the hone the jump shot that figures to feature far more prominently in his game during the regular season. Teague's speed could be a solution to part of the team's perimeter defense problem, but it might also keep him from thriving alongside either Johnson or Crawford if he too is most effective with the ball in his hands. No matter how Larry Drew's half-court offense differs from Woodson's isolation-heavy, it's unlikely to be centered around Teague and he'll have to find other ways to score.

Less Than 72 Hours To Free Agency, A Salary Cap Update

There have been a few changes since I last covered the Atlanta Hawks salary cap situation in depth. Mo Evans picked up his option, the Hawks traded down to the 27th pick in the draft, they did, in fact, make a qualifying offer to Josh Childress, and, presumably, did not make a qualifying offer to Mario West.

Thus, the salary cap is $56.1 million and the luxury tax threshold will be approximately $68 million.

The Hawks owe $48,498,814 to nine players (Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby, Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Mo Evans, Jeff Teague, and Jordan Crawford). The cap hold for Josh Childress ($10.894 million, which could be in place all summer if Childress chooses to stay in Greece) alone puts the Hawks over the salary cap. Until Joe Johnson signs with a team (be it Atlanta, New York, Chicago, or another), the Hawks have a cap hold of $16.2 million to close a loophole involving his Bird rights. There's an additional cap hold of $854,389 for an empty roster spot.

Key Quote From the Official Introduction of Larry Drew

It didn't come from Larry Drew, which is no knock on Drew or anything he said. He seems a reasonable man who likely has ideas, good and bad, innovative and naïve, about how to be a head coach. I expect he'll have many new and different ideas about how to be a head coach in six months. As he should. And he did say several intelligent:

"The thing is to get [Josh Smith] off the perimeter. Put him in position to be a little more successful. I believe with his athleticism, he has a lot of capability in low post."

and crowd-pleasing things:

"I really believe [Jeff Teague] has the package. Rick [Sund] and I spoke about it. I think he has the ability to make this team better, to have an impact on this team. The offense will really benefit from his speed and his quickness — to break the defense down."

The key quote (reported, as the above quotes were, by Jeff Schultz of the AJC) though comes from Al Horford speaking on the differences between Mike Woodson and Larry Drew:

"He’s totally different. Coach Woodson was more laid back. Larry’s different. He’s already reached out to us and let us know he’s going to change the offense a little bit and how he’s emphasizing the defensive part of things...Even though Larry was a part of our team before, it’s a big change for us. Because when you have a head coach, you [the assistant] can’t get the last say. With him being in charge now, things are going to be different."

I think Woodson's tendency to be "laid back" then transitioning into a "screamer" when things didn't go according to plan is what ultimately lost the confidence of the locker room. A coach could survive, especially after a 53-win season, an inability to communicate or an inability to make effective in-game adjustments. The combination of those particular weaknesses fails to inspire or even reassure. Horford also indirectly addresses the dissonance between Mike Woodson's frequent invocations of defense in the media and on-court results. Improving the team's defense is, to my mind, Drew's primary challenge.

Hiring Larry Drew doesn't come close to solving this team's myriad weaknesses but, if he can convince the team's young talent to play differently (whether Joe Johnson returns or not) than they've grown accustomed, then the chances of him making a successful head coaching debut increase. The players got what they wanted but, in gaining a new head coach, they lost a scapegoat. Mike Woodson took the bulk of the blame for the team's (relatively) poor playoff performance. If the returning Hawks fail to give Drew a consistent, committed effort as he learns on the job (as he assuredly will) they'll find there's plenty of blame to go around when changes don't lead to improvement.

Early, Positive Reactions to the Larry Drew Hiring

Michael Cunningham of the AJC spoke with Hawks players to gauge their reaction to the hiring:

...all of them said they expect LD’s approach to be different than Woody’s. Drew often ran the second-team offense in practice and was said to deploy creative sets, with one player describing them as a “fun” departures from the isolations. Another player said when things went badly for the Hawks, LD tended to be more of an “encourager” than a “screamer” and focused his energy on laying out a detailed plan for how the Hawks can get better.

Sekou Smith of NBA.com also approves of hiring Larry Drew:

Drew is an excellent choice for a Hawks team that needed a new coach and not just a name or a personality to handle a group that piled up the fifth-best season in franchise history. Drew”s not a self-promoter or a guy that’s ever hunted the headlines as an assistant coach. But he’s honed his craft over the years, working all over the league and with some of the best people in the business. Sure, he has plenty to prove as a head coach, but what first time boss doesn’t? Drew has the added advantage of having guys like Al Horford, Josh Smith (below) and Jamal Crawford in his corner.

In the latest Free Agency Dime at ESPN.com, Marc Stein argues that Drew wasn't hired to convince Joe Johnson to stay:

If keeping Joe Johnson was the Hawks' lone aim, there's a case to be made that they just should have kept Mike Woodson.

You don't have to live in Atlanta to know the depths of Woodson's devotion to Johnson. You have undoubtedly heard that Woody's predictable play-calling was routinely referred to as the Iso-Joe offense. You can't be surprised by the suggestion that Johnson would want to keep playing for Woody, who catered to his No. 1 option as few coaches do.

But hanging on to Johnson is not Atlanta's sole goal. The Hawks know they'll have trouble spots to address even if Johnson stays this summer, judging by their embarrassing surrender in the second round against Orlando, when they absorbed a four-game sweep by a combined 101 points.

Atlanta Hawks Offseason Speculation Open Thread

This is a safe, well-lit space to discuss uncertainties:

• the coaching search (Dwane Casey, Larry Drew, Mark Jackson, and Avery Johnson appear to be the candidates)
• Joe Johnson's impending free agency
• Josh Childress returning to Atlanta, staying in Greece, or being part of a sign-and-trade
• Mo Evans opting out (or not) of the final year of his deal
• the possibility and value of trading the 24th pick in the draft
• candidates on which the Hawks could use the MLE
• other topics of your choosing

Other resources: Salary cap primer, Trade Machine

I'll be reading and responding in the comments through the weekend.

Draft coverage begins Monday.

Hawks Will Not Make Contract Offer to Mike Woodson

Sekou Smith reports on NBA.com:

Woodson was informed in a Friday morning meeting with Hawks' management that that he would not be offered a new contract after leading the Hawks to three straight playoff appearances in his final three seasons.

The team is expected to make an official announcement this afternoon.

Woodson's contract expired Monday, forcing the Hawks to make a quick decision. Woodson is now free to explore his options with a half dozen coaching vacancies around the league, while the Hawks embark on a search of their own for his replacement.

My end of season piece on Woodson, originally seen in The Daily Dime:

Mike Woodson coached his 521st game with the Atlanta Hawks Monday night. The 14-point loss completed a sweep at the hands of the Orlando Magic and might have been his last game with the team, capping a remarkable, unlikely run in charge.

Woodson's tenure is remarkable because he got a second contract after winning 106 games in his first four seasons in charge and because he's unlikely to get a third contract offer after winning 100 games over the past two seasons while taking the Hawks to the second round of the playoffs in consecutive years, a feat last accomplished in Atlanta by Lenny Wilkens in 1996 and 1997.

Last season's second-round sweep could be (fairly) blamed on injuries as much as Cleveland's superiority. This season's sweep demonstrates just how far the Hawks, despite their slow, consistent improvement under Woodson, have to go to compete for a championship. With the contracts of both Woodson and Joe Johnson expiring, an era may be over in Atlanta.

It would be unduly charitable to view Woodson as a victim of his own success. This team, in perhaps its last week together, revealed the consistent weaknesses of the Woodson era: an overreliance on jump shots created off the dribble and in isolation, lots of talk about defense but little in the way of results, and a lack of depth. The first two problems are directly related. Though Woodson retains, from his association with Larry Brown in Detroit, a defensive reputation in some circles, the Hawks never finished better than 12th in the league in defensive efficiency largely because Woodson was most comfortable turning the offense over to veteran point guards.

Tyronn Lue, Anthony Johnson, Mike Bibby, Flip Murray and Jamal Crawford each took their turn spotting up on the weak side while Joe Johnson had the ball. Each also took his turn guarding the opposition's least-dangerous offensive player as Woodson cross-matched in an attempt to hide his point guard from quicker players.

In time, this effort to hide, on the defensive end, players deemed essential to the offense turned the Hawks into a fully predictable team, one that switched almost every screen, both on- and off-the-ball, in an effort to maximize the involvement of its two good defensive players (Josh Smith and Al Horford) in each possession.

In the playoffs -- especially on the road, where the Hawks lost 12 of 14 games under Woodson -- opposing teams took advantage of this defensive predictability to create whichever matchup they desired and/or to pull Smith and Horford away from the basket. It proved just as damaging as the more-publicized isolation-heavy offensive sets which too often failed to trouble sound defensive clubs in the postseason. It was damaging, because the Hawks never appeared to have any other options, either in terms of tactics or personnel, at their disposal.

Woodson has become, over the course of six seasons, quite competent at installing a game plan. However, he has failed to make successful adjustments when teams foil that plan. If this is the end, it may be the similarity, more than the number, of Hawks defeats that convinces the organization to hire a new head coach.

Change might and if to was and when.

Atlanta Hawks Summer 2010 Cap Space Primer

The key references are the salary information at Sham Sports and Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ. With those two resources you don't really need this post but I'll be using it as a reference point this summer as players come and go, money (real or virtual) comes off of or is added to the books.

The NBA has estimated the 2010-11 salary cap to be $56.1 million and the luxury tax threshold will be approximately $68 million.

The Hawks have seven players under contract for next season for a total of $45,130,214:

Name	2010-11 Salary (millions)
Josh Smith	11.6
Crawford	10.08
Williams	6.712
Bibby	5.565
Horford	5.445
Pachulia	4.251
Teague	1.477

Maurice Evans has a player option for $2.5 million next season. It has been reported that Evans is leaning toward declining the option and becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Because of cap holds, this does not mean the Hawks will have $11 million ($8.5 million if Evans exercises his option) in cap space this summer.

Until Joe Johnson re-signs with the Hawks or signs with another team, the Hawks will have a cap hold of approximately $16.2 million for Johnson. As Larry Coon explains, this is to prevent a loophole regarding Bird rights.

The hold for Johnson brings Atlanta's cap number to approximately $63.1 million.

There is also a cap hold for the Hawks' first-round pick. Last year, the cap hold (and first-year compensation) for the 24th pick was $933,500.

That brings Atlanta's cap number to approximately $64 million.

The Hawks also have cap holds for two potential restricted free agents: Josh Childress ($10.894 million) and Mario West ($1.06 million). In order to retain the right to match any offer, the Hawks must submit a qualifying offer to Childress and West by June 30th.

That brings Atlanta's cap number to approximately $76 million.

If the Hawks do not submit a qualifying offer to Childress or West, the will still have a cap hold of $854,389 for every empty roster spot if they have "fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks)." The seven players under contract, plus Johnson (until he signs a contract with another team), plus the first-round draft pick, plus Childress and West, brings the Hawks to 11 players so we add $854,389 for one empty roster spot, bringing the total of salaries and cap holds to just under $77 million. As explained above, the Hawks can reduce that number by not submitting a qualifying offer to Childress and/or West but declining to submit the qualifying offers would not appreciably change the team's cap space.

This is why the Atlanta Hawks cannot pursue other team's free agents for anything other than the Mid-Level or Bi-Annual Exceptions. This is also why the Hawks may aggressively pursue sign-and-trade deals involving Joe Johnson and Josh Childress should the former sign with another team and/or should the latter opt out of his contract with Olympiacos and return to the NBA but not the Hawks.

Have They Learned Anything?

As reported by Michael Cunningham...

Mike Woodson:

You could have never told me we would struggle to score points.

It's not an encouraging sign that I, in my semi-professional capacity here, might have had a better grasp on the central issue of the Hawks/Magic matchup than the head coach.

Was he unable to be told or did he choose not to listen?

May 3rd

May 3rd, again

May 4th

Media-friendly owner Michael Gearon, Jr. again reveals himself more fan than serious analyst. On Jeff Teague:

"He has extraordinary talent and is capable of producing now."

Teague's 2009-10 stats and a study of rookie point guards drafted outside the lottery. I think you'll find both the amount of Teague's playing time (on a good team) and production to be right in line with reasonable expectations.

On Joe Smith and Jason Collins:

"Guys like that are capable of contributing a lot."

They're not. They're just not. Joe Smith took 193 shots this season. 103 of those were at least 16 feet from the basket. He made 30 of those. He was also terrible defensively. Jason Collins played 4 minutes and 49 seconds of good basketball this season, and even then, only when matched up against a larger (and possibly slower) human being. His total combined points and rebounds barely eclipsed his total combined fouls and turnovers.

I don't know how much influence* Gearon has in personnel decisions but it's disconcerting to hear him sound like a below-average message board denizen in expressing absolute belief in the ability of once-useful players with recognizable names** who are clearly on the downside of their career. I bet he really likes the energy Mario West brings and thinks Garret Siler has an NBA future, too. Meanwhile, the D-League is ignored and the best player the organization's found in the second-round of the draft in the last 20 years is probably Chris Crawford.

*He presumably has some influence on spending.

**Maybe he really did want to sign Ilgauskas.

Ball Don't Lie: Dwyer: Gone Till November

Kelly Dwyer addresses the state of the Atlanta Hawks:

This rotation, as presently constructed, isn't good enough to battle with the East's big three out of Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston. And even if it did have the talent to see eye-to-eye with that lot, would anyone trust the brains behind these Hawks?

New Blog Roundtable

All the usual suspects sound off on the following subjects:

1. With the 2009-10 drawing near, how do you grade the team's moves over the offseason?
2. Which other Eastern Conference team do you think has improved the most since last year?

Courtney Sims Is Coming To Camp

Buried beneath Joe Smith quote catering to intagiphiles and confirmation of the coming addition of Jason Collins* Sekou Smith shared this interesting tidbit yesterday:

Second-year forward Othello Hunter has committed to attend the Hawks’ training camp, which kicks off late next month.

He’ll join a growing list of camp invitees that already includes rookie free agent Garrett Siler, Frank Robinson and Courtney Sims.

Good news about Othello Hunter. The Hawks could do worse** than keep a fifth big man who could, if called upon, rebound and defend the four without embarrassment.

Even better news about Courtney Sims. He hasn't stuck in the NBA, playing 24 minutes in five games for three teams over the last two seasons, but in 1573 minutes in the D-League he's been outstanding, averaging 22 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Inviting the reigning D-League MVP to camp demonstrates an increased organizational interest in both the D-League as a development system and in deepening the pool of potential bench players beyond veterans whose recent career (and less-recent fame) makes one hope they remain well down the depth chart and locals whose careers make no strong case for their involvement in the NBA in any sort of playing capacity.

*More on him when it's official.

**And, as it looks possible they'll end up with four centers on the roster, this may cease to be a hypothetical.

Flip Murray Update

In the course of one season I went from the greatest critic of signing Flip Murray to the strongest advocate for the value of his contributions. I don't expect him to repeat last season's strong performance but allowed to do what he does well he could be a useful contributor for a team in need of bench scoring.

In perhaps not the strongest endorsement of my basketball acuity, the Memphis Grizzlies may agree with me. Ronald Tillery writes that Tarance Kinsey may have gone to Turkey because he suspected that Memphis plan to sign Murray:

Kinsey bolted instead of waiting out a potential Grizzlies deal as the franchise considered other options. My sense is the Griz prefer Ronald "Flip" Murray and had Kinsey as a second option.

Murray, though, won't come for the minimum salary after having several productive seasons. He's an unrestricted free agent with the Atlanta Hawks, who are stalling -- much like they did with Josh Smith - and likely will react to Murray finding an offer.

With Murray sitting as the best of the rest among combo guards in free agency, the Griz appear willing to wait out the Murray situation in hopes that a) his price tag falls with his options and b) that he'll be more inclined to not give the Hawks an opportunity after feeling disrespected by their inactivity.

I'm skeptical that the Hawks are "stalling" with Murray. I think he's been replaced by Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague. Barring a significant injury or the unexpected decision to send Teague to the D-League for the duration of the 2009-10 season, there aren't any minutes for Murray in Atlanta.

I certainly wouldn't begrudge Murray for holding firm for either more money or more years from any and all interested teams. As long as he keeps himself in shape he's not a player who will need a lot of time to settle in with a team. There's little finesse or reliance on 5-on-5 tactics to do with the good parts of his game. He plays hard, gets the better of the opponents he can dominate physically, and struggles against those he can't.