Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Items of Interest From Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10

Consider this look at the fruits of the SCHOENE projection system another endorsement of the finest professional basketball annual published so far.

  • Jamal Crawford is projected to have a higher individual defensive rating than he posted either of the last two years in New York and Golden State. He's not a good defender but in the context of a competent team defense it's reasonable to assume that he won't be as bad.
  • Projects a bounce-back for Joe Johnson's field goal shooting from 2008-09 levels.
  • Projects a full return to 06-07 and 07-08 levels of productivity for Josh Smith with the only serious change in the shape of his performance manifesting itself in fewer rebounds and turnovers.
  • Jeff Teague's most similar player: Mo Williams. That's promising long-term, but remember Mo's rookie season. Next three Teague comps: Smush Parker, Jay Williams, OJ Mayo.
  • SCHOENE is really down on Bibby, judging his 2PTFG% and 3PTFG% as set to fall and his turnover rate to rise. Diminish those two skills (making shots and not turning the ball over) and Bibby doesn't have much left to offer.
  • Projects a decline in Joe Smith's usage rate, TS%, rebound rate, and block rate from his performance in Cleveland, Chicago, and Oklahoma City over the past two seasons.
  • The Josh Childress box offers a sobering reminder of what the Hawks are missing be it from Childress himself or from equivalent value garnered via trading his rights.
Negative on the surface but likely really a positive
  • The SCHOENE projection system doesn't treat Marvin Williams' three-point shooting as a new skill. I wouldn't be surprised if he shot worse than 35.5% from beyond the arc this year. I would be surprised if he sank to the depths projected: 30.1 3PTFG%.

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