Perspective On October Positivity

Ah, training camp, the only time of year when "Jamal Crawford" and "tenacious defender" can share a sentence without their nine-year companion "is not" tagging along.

363 days ago, it was Solomon Jones who was deemed a new man* in the first week of training camp.

Two Octobers ago, Mike Woodson declared Mario West a difference-maker who "every time out" makes "a major impact."

Joe Johnson offers a dose of reality:

"When I'm out there, I don’t want to come out. I just pay the price later. In the heat of the battle, I don't ever want to come out. I can't put a lot of that on coach. You have to put it on me, because even when he asks me if I want a break or if I'm tired, I always say no. Even if I'm tired and I can't breathe, I still tell him no. That's not me being selfish. I'm just a competitor to the point that I feel like I can really do something to help my team win."

Well there's one item to put on the "Why Mike Woodson Hasn't Been Offered a Contract Extension" side of the ledger. Bully for Joe Johnson's desire to help the team. He's not paid to offer perspective. Nor is Mike Woodson employed for the purpose of serving Joe Johnson's ego but rather to get the most (not the most minutes, mind you) out of Johnson and the team. This is where Jamal Crawford's (and to a lesser extent Jeff Teague's) acquisition might do the most good: convincing Mike Woodson to play Joe Johnson 35 instead of 40 minutes a night.

*Bonus bad Flip Murray prediction at the bottom of that link.

AJC.com: Smith: Crawford Makes a Great First Impression

Sekou Smith quotes my second favorite source*, "a visiting pro from another NBA Team":

"They’re going to be (expletive) good this year. You throw JC and Joe Smith and this kid [Jeff] Teague, and they’ve got some wrinkles now that they didn’t have last season. They were already a dangerous team and now they’re really dangerous. And knowing these fans down here and what they like, they’re going to love the style this team can play. They’re going to love JC."

*After "an anonymous scout"

Wrinkles, eh?

More like reputations.

JAMAL CRAWFORD (career) vs. FLIP MURRAY (08-09)

Name	Pts/36	FGA/36	TS%	eFG%	A/36	TO/36
Crawford	16.8	14.6	51.7	46.9	4.6	2.3
Murray	17.8	14.5	54.3	50.1	2.9	2.3

Jamal Crawford is a better basketball player than Flip Murray but Flip Murray was a better basketball player than Flip Murray last year. Said another way, Crawford is extremely likely to be a better player than Flip Murray in 2009-10. Jamal Crawford is not very likely to a better player in 2009-10 than Flip Murray was in 2008-09. In very rough terms, the Hawks figure to add an extra assist every 21 minutes at the cost of an extra missed shot every 51 minutes. Plus the difference between Murray's average defense and Crawford's abominable defense.

JOE SMITH (career) vs. ZAZA PACHULIA (career)

Name	OR%	DR%	PTS/36	TS%	BS/36
Smith	10.3%	17.6%	15.0	51.5%	1.2
Pachulia	12.1%	19.0%	13.0	53.7%	0.6

At this point in his career, Joe Smith projects to offer little improvement over Zaza Pachulia, and what improvement Smith might reasonably offer--an extra point a game, a extra blocked shot every three or four games--will come at the expense of rebounds, especially offensive rebounds, which, unless everyone again has a career season from beyond the three-point line, figure to be a more important factor in 2009-10 than they were in 2008-09 when the Hawks finished a disappointing 19th in the league in offensive rebound rate.

But even if Smith is a similar player to Pachulia* whose skills don't complement his future teammates as well as do Pachulia's, the first 675 minutes Smith plays will be as a direct replacement for Solomon Jones. That's something positive.

JOE SMITH (08-09) vs. SOLOMON JONES (08-09)

Name	OR%	DR%	PTS/36	TS%	BS/36
Smith	9.5%	18.3%	12.2	50.7%	1.3
Jones	9.1%	15.6%	10.0	65.5%	1.8

Though Jones put up superficially decent numbers in limited minutes last season, Smith figures to surpass that production while playing non-garbage time minutes and providing much, much, much better defense both before and after an opponent's shot goes up.

*And he is. Joe Smith is a backup center who plays adequate position defense. Any extra blocks he gets are simply a function of his reach compared to Pachulia's.

Rick Sund undeniably made good decisions in replacing Solomon Jones with a better player and not expecting Flip Murray to replicate his career year. Those decisions, though, do not in and of themselves make the team better so much as they increased the chances of the team not getting worse. The positive impact of the difference between Smith and Jones will be reduced every time Smith takes minutes away from Pachulia, Al Horford, or Josh Smith.

Jamal Crawford is a better passer than Flip Murray but he'll shoot just as often thus continuing to limit touches for Williams and Horford. Crawford's inadequate defense will make it more difficult for Mike Woodson to hide Mike Bibby defensively.

If the Hawks are better in 2009-10 (and I'm not convinced they won't be) it will be because Williams, Horford, and Josh Smith stay healthy and shore up the defense for 82 games, because Jeff Teague plays just well enough to allow Woodson to feel he can rest Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby with limited risk, and because Josh Smith pulls his significant and disparate talents together. Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith are nice rotation players. They are not difference makers when added to a 47-win team.

Introducing Solomon Jones to Eight Points, Nine Seconds

Little I offered will be new to anyone familiar with my opinion of the subject but I hadn't had cause to link to the TrueHoop Network's fine new Pacers blog.

Hawks Rescinded Qualifying Offer To Jones And Thoughts On Joe Smith

Deep in Sekou Smith's latest blog post:

Solo is moving on at a time when the Hawks could use a big or two like him, which makes his departure for Indiana all the more perplexing. After all, he was a restricted free agent, due close to a $1 million if he had signed his qualifying offer (the QO was rescinded so he would be allowed to sign with the Pacers without any interruption). I needed an explanation and Solo provided one last week. “The Hawks kept it real with me,” he said. “They told me that my role was going to be pretty much the same as it was last year, and that I wouldn’t have a chance to move up and get more time unless somebody got hurt like last year. And I realize that’s just the way it’s going to be with Josh and Al [Horford] and Zaza already in place. It’s cool. I get a chance to go somewhere else and try and start over and see if there’s a chance to have a bigger role. The Pacers want me up there right away to get to work and that’s a good thing. I’m looking forward to the opportunity. But I appreciate the Hawks keeping it straight with me and not trying to sell me something that they couldn’t deliver in terms of playing time and opportunity.”

Emphasis mine.

Thumbs up to Jones for his perceptive analysis* of the Hawks' post rotation which offers as good as segue as I've yet managed to broach the subject of Joe Smith in this space. Smith would be a fine addition but he (or any other serviceable veteran or intriguing young big man) will probably not have a measurable positive impact on next year's team on the court.

*Better than Sekou's ("...the Hawks could use a big or two like [Jones]...") with which one might argue were one not willing to give Mr. Smith a pass on work filed while on vacation.

Last year, with Al Horford missing 15 games, Josh Smith missing 13 games, Zaza Pachulia missing 5 games, and Marvin Williams absent for 21 games and thus unable on those nights to slide down to the four, Solomon Jones played just 675 minutes. One big guy who will almost certainly still be on the roster next season, Randolph Morris, played just 89 minutes. Another post player who might be back, Othello Hunter, played just 92 minutes.

The fourth big man in the rotation is extremely unlikely to play 1000 minutes next season. He's fairly unlikely to play 800 minutes. If either occurs, something bad has almost certainly occurred be it injury or a recurrence of the head coach's aversion to the threat of foul trouble.

Joe Smith would be a nice insurance policy, possibly provide some value as a teammate and locker room presence, and likely provide a psychologically healthier experience for Hawks fans during his brief appearances on court than Solomon Jones ever did. I'm not positive, for example, that Smith can get out to the three-point line, much less run into shooters after they've released their shot nor have I ever witnessed Smith fall down as a result of trying to catch a pass. It wouldn't be a bad signing, but it's unlikely to make much of a positive difference either.

Pacers Sign Solomon Jones To 2-Year Deal

Jeff Rabjohns of The Indianapolis Star:

The Indiana Pacers have agreed to a two-year deal for forward Solomon Jones, a person familiar with the situation confirmed today.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

I guess my suspicions were correct and the Hawks never did extend a qualifying offer to Solomon Jones. Keep the lack of official announcements regarding generic organizational business in mind the next time anyone in a decision-making capacity utters the words "criticism" or "scrutiny." Neither really exists in this market.

2008-09 Season Review: Solomon Jones

Three years into his NBA career, there's still little to indicate why the Hawks spent the 33rd pick of the 2006 Draft on Solomon Jones. Coming out of South Florida, a raw, relatively nondescript* player on a terrible team Jones has had little opportunity to develop as a basketball player at the professional level. From a certain perspective, one could argue that keeping Solomon Jones on the end of the bench for three seasons is a greater indictment of the Hawks' player-development philosophy than Acie Law IV's inability to gain a foothold in the rotation. The Hawks couldn't have drafted Jones with the expectation of him playing right away yet they've appeared to do little to help him develop or augment his nominal skills (shot blocking, offensive rebounding, dunking when handed the ball at the rim) or mitigate the inexperience that keeps him from taking advantage of his one real physical gift: length. It's difficult to rebound or block shots when you're constantly out of position, and, because of his limited skills and experience any blocked shots or offensive rebounds Jones has contributed in his 1486 minutes across three seasons have come at the the cost of fouls, turnovers, and defensive rebounds unclaimed.

*Certainly in comparison to several accomplished college players (Paul Davis, PJ Tucker, Craig Smith, James Augustine, Boobie Gibson, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, Hassan Adams, Jose Juan Barea, and Mike Gansey) still on the board at the time.

There's little in his performance record (and even less from watching him play) to suggest that he deserved more minutes from the Hawks but one can't help but wonder what benefit a long stretch in the D-League during the 2007-08 season rather than spending the entire season with the Hawks, playing just 145 minutes in 35 games might have done for Jones. One hopes that Jones's impending free agency lands him an opportunity to play somewhere so that he might begin to fashion a skill set that could earn him a basketball career.

Season Review: The End of the Bench

Previously: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby, Acie Law IV, Zaza Pachulia

A quick wrap-up of those who played few minutes last year and should (with one possible exception) play even fewer minutes this season concludes the player-by-player review of the 2007-08 season.

Mario West

West didn't play much; his 270 minutes were spread over 64 games with 20 appearances consisting of less than one minute of playing time. West's effort was always obvious even as he displayed skills useful to winning basketball games less frequently. Part of the problem lay not with West but with Mike Woodson utilizing a player poorly (Shock! Horror!) . Rather than using West's energy to disrupt the opposition's second unit for a couple of minutes every so often, Woodson decided that Mario West was a defensive stopper who should guard the other team's best wing player for one half-court possession at the end of a quarter. West usually responded to this assignment by committing a foul at the first opportunity.*

*Mario West scored 59 points, grabbed 48 rebounds, and committed 61 fouls in his 270 minutes of playing time.

West played fairly well in the two games he started, scoring 11 points and grabbing 7 offensive rebounds in 31 minutes. If you put him on the court with good players the other team may forget about him long enough for him contribute positively. If he hopes to stay in the league as an energy guy for a another season he'll have to learn to defend without fouling. If he hopes to stay in the league for any significant length of time, he'll also need to start knocking down jump shots. He made 2 of 12 jump shots in his rookie year. If he didn't spend the summer working on his lateral movement and shooting thousands of corner three-pointers he'll find Jeremy Richardson or Thomas Gardner holding down his old roster spot.

Solomon Jones

Jones looked every bit the project in his rookie season but there were a few skills (shot selection, free throw shooting, shot blocking) that looked as if they might serve as a foundation for a career coming of the bench and providing useful minutes.

None of those skills were evident in Jones' second season. His field goal percentage fell from 50.8% (128 attempts) to 40% (30 attempts). His free throw shooting dropped from 78.7% (75 attempts) to 55% (20 attempts). He blocked almost half as many shots per minute while committing fouls slightly more frequently. He also managed to turn the ball over on 22% of the offensive possessions he used.

Furthermore, he looked every bit as bad as his numbers would suggest. His lack of basketball awareness or game-readiness rendered his athleticism largely useless. I've no idea why the Hawks have chosen not to send Jones to the D-League so he can get some practice playing basketball. Of course, the bigger question is why they wasted the 33rd pick of the draft of the 2006 Draft on Jones in the first place, other than to demonstrate what can be accomplished when Billy Knight's drafting acumen combines with Mike Woodson's facility for developing young players' skills.

Despite his desperate need for anything approximating game experience, Jones declined to play on the Hawks' summer league team, a decision which should make it more likely that the Hawks trade him for someone, anyone willing to take on his guaranteed contract.

Jeremy Richardson

Over the last two years, Jeremy Richardson has played 152 minutes of NBA basketball across 33 games for 4 different teams. It would be folly to try and derive any meaning from his NBA stats.

He's scored effectively and efficiently in over 1000+ D-league minutes. He deserves a chance not just to make the 2008-09 Hawks roster but to earn some minutes in the rotation (If only due to Josh Childress's massive absence.) as either a shooter or scorer, essentially serving as second-unit insurance for both Maurice Evans' jump shot and Acie Law IV's dribble penetration.

Salim Stoudamire

Salim will be missed by those of us prone to forever believe in his potential to serve as a (likeable) Jannero Pargo type. Rarely used in any way that made sense during his final season in Atlanta, Stoudamire compounded matters by shooting the ball often and with very little success in his rare appearances setting career lows in two-point, three-point, and free throw shooting. Still, I'll root for him wherever he ends up.

Presumably Solomon Jones Has Begun Stretching

Not unexpected, but now (well, 15 hours ago) made official: Al Horford suspended for one game.

NEW YORK, December 13, 2007 – Atlanta Hawks forward Al Horford has been suspended one game without pay for committing a Flagrant Foul Penalty Two by striking Toronto’s T.J. Ford on the head, it was announced today by Stu Jackson, NBA Executive Vice President Basketball Operations.

The incident occurred with 1:32 remaining in the fourth quarter of the Hawks 100-88 loss to the Raptors on Tuesday night at Philips Arena. Horford will serve his suspension Friday against the Detroit Pistons.

Sekou Smith reports that Zaza Pachulia "is expected to return to the lineup and start in Horford's place."

Tonight's frontcourts: Wallace/McDyess/Maxiell/Mohammed/Johnson v. Smith/Pachulia/S Williams/Jones. I haven't been this pessimistic about the Hawks' chances to win a game since Monday. Which can (obviously) be taken as either a reason to stay in or go out this Friday night.