Monday, December 27, 2010

Mathletics: NBA Insights December 27

Wayne Winston offers an adjusted plus/minus inspired thought or two for every NBA team on the basis of season-to-date data. Concerning the Hawks:
Bibby +10 and Jamaal Crawford +9 have keyed the Hawks moderate success. Despite a great PER rating Horford has not had a great impact on their usccess [sic].
It's true that Al Horford has poor adjusted plus/minus numbers this season. As do LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. It's also true that, over the entirety of this season plus last season, Horford's 15th in the league in adjusted plus/minus.

In defense of Horford's reputation, I'll offer some unadjusted plus/minus numbers from this season:

Al HorfordOff EffDef EffPoss
w/ Josh Powell102.0124.1202
w/o Josh Powell108.9103.41787

Josh Powell has been on the court for 10.2% of the possessions Al Horford has played. Those possessions have decreased Horford's overall on-court offensive rating by 0.7 points per 100 possessions and increased Horford's overall on-court defensive rating by 2.1 points per 100 possessions.

1 comment:

Bronn said...

Adjusted plus minus is very unstable over smaller sample sizes anyway (as I understand it). It's great at the end of an 82 game season, but midseason, it doesn't give me a lot of faith in its ability to recognize the strongest players. Keyon Dooling, Rodney Stuckey, and Landry Fields are simply not among the 10 most valuable players in the league. Nor is Derek Fisher.