SB Nation: Ziller: Previewing the Southeast Division

Tom Ziller predicts no playoffs for the Hawks:

The Hawks are the team in the NBA least likely to earn a repeat trip to the playoffs. Atlanta was the East's No. 5 seed last season and even knocked out the Magic in the first round. But that was largely smoke and mirrors. Atlanta had a negative efficiency differential, which means that based on scoring margin, the Hawks were a below-.500 team. The Hawks won a good share of close games, but when they lost, they usually got blown out of the gym. By slaying Orlando, Larry Drew showed himself to be a pretty good coach. But so long as Joe Johnson plays like he did last season -- average, basically -- this team's backcourt just isn't good enough to ensure another postseason bid. Al Horford and Josh Smith can only do so much.

The Salary Cap Situation In 140 Characters

No need to re-type the whole thing here, is there?

Hawks Waive Keith Benson, Plan To Start Season With 15 Players

Second-round pick Keith Benson didn't make it to the regular season, either.

Surprisingly, given the team's proximity to the luxury tax line, the Hawks will start the season with 15 players on the roster. Starting with the good news, quality D-League products Ivan Johnson (an active, if undersized, four who could be able to score off the bench) and Donald Sloan (a young, cheap, and legitimate third point guard*) will start the season with the team. The bad news is that neither figures to play as long as thirtysomethings Tracy McGrady, Willie Green (whose contract is guaranteed), Jannero Pargo, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Jerry Stackhouse** are around. Both are more likely to be cut than any of the guys whose best*** days are behind them.

*I'm counting Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich as point guards. Pargo might bring the ball up at times while Hinrich recovers from surgery but Pargo isn't going to play point guard in any traditional sense of the term.

**Jerry Stackhouse is 37 years old and has played 162, 855, and 50 sub-replacement level minutes in each of the past three seasons, respectively. I can't see why the Hawks would keep him around in a non-coaching capacity, further flirting with the luxury tax, unless Larry Drew intends to put him on the floor in games that count. Furthermore, I fear that he's on the roster because he scored 10% of his total regular season points over the last three seasons in the three games he played for Milwaukee against the Hawks in 2009-10.

***Best not being synonymous with either good or productive in some cases.

The Hawks are going to be in serious trouble if any of their top seven guys get hurt (as the scramble to deal with the short-term loss of Kirk Hinirch, in 2011, demonstrates) regardless of which freely available players fill out the back end of the roster but they've taken the least interesting path* in completing that task. Young guys who can't play will always inspire greater interest than an old guys who can't play. For a not-especially-successful franchise committed, in the important ways, to more of the same, in perpetuity, it seems the least they could do to stoke fan interest around the margins rather than import re-treads en masse.

The odd thing is I'm optimistic about many things this season: Joe Johnson shooting better than last season, Jeff Teague playing regular minutes, Josh Smith weighing 225 pounds, Marvin Williams being healthy, not having Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford on the court for a single possession when the other team has the ball. But last year's team was somewhere between a 38- and 44-win squad. Will all those improvements by the starters (should they even come to pass) make up for the guys who will be on the court after a starter picks up two first half fouls, needs a rest due to the compressed schedule or, heaven forfend, gets hurt?

*So the Hawks waived Pape Sy because he couldn't play point guard. The Venn diagram of people who have seen Pape Sy play professional basketball and people who think Pape Sy could ever play point guard in the NBA would consist of a small circle in the center of the page in front of you representing the former and a dot on a piece of paper in a drawer in the attic representing the latter.

Hardwood Paroxysm: The 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks Preview That Only Like Forty People Will Care About

Their title, not mine, though someone there might have gotten a glimpse at my traffic numbers.

You've got Danny Chau on Josh Smith:

Al Horford is their best player, Joe Johnson is their most experienced leader, and Jeff Teague is their brightest glimmer of sunshine. But they don’t matter as much as Smith, because everyone else on the roster is safe. With the snap of a finger, Josh Smith could be traded. Teams would bend over backwards to obtain a player with his superior size, athleticism, defensive ability, playmaking ability, and post skills still in his mid-20s. Now if you close your eyes and let all of those traits swirl around in your head, you have a damn-near-perfect player. The problem is, if you’ve ever watch Josh Smith play outside of the five-minute YouTube mixes, you’ll know that he can go entire quarters without exhibiting any (ANY!) of those traits.

Amin Vafa on the general state of things:

So basically what you have in Atlanta is a roster with tons of raw talent, an immobile franchise-player-level contract, and erratic energy that will most certainly play the ugliest two rounds of playoff basketball you’ve ever seen (this coming year and in years past).

James Herbert on his willingness to start a cult about Jeff Teague:

We love Jeff Teague because he’s not safe. We’d start a cult about Teague because, on a team we’re not particularly excited about, he gives us a reason to tune in. He’s extraordinarily quick, he’s actually drives to the basket, he plays defense, and, unlike the rest of the Hawks roster, we’re not sure where his ceiling is.

Hawks Waive Pape Sy, Ending a Bizarre Non-Era

Pape Sy is probably never going to be a useful NBA player. In that respect, the decision to waive him (along with Magnum Rolle and Brad Wanamaker) is perfectly defensible for a team struggling to reach the league's roster minimum without going over the luxury tax line.

It does not make the decision to draft Sy, despite his age and lack of professional experience, or to buy out his contract despite their being no role for him to play on the 2010-11 Hawks team any more explicable. The Hawks spent money on a player who wasn't ready and, after his first, brief period professional success, they give up on him.

Sy's tenure with the team demonstrates the same lack of long-term planning and wasteful spending as does the need to fill out the roster (again, minimally fill out the roster) with replacement level players in their thirties because of habitually poor cap management and player development, factors which are far more likely than Pape Sy's presence or absence to impact the 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks season negatively.

Hawks Sign Willie Green

I must say that, having become inured to his constant Willie Green-ness and being somewhat thankful that he was some other blogger's problem, I hadn't noticed that Green has stopped turning the ball over. So he's got that going for him. Related, the frontcourt has copious offensive rebounding opportunities to look forward to.

Over the age of 30, lacking three-point range, and unable to get to the foul line consistently, Green shouldn't face much of a learning curve in adapting to the Hawks' system. Per John Hollinger (via Hoopdata, presumably), more than half of Green's field goal attempts were long twos.

If Green gets a shot at some of Jamal Crawford's minutes, he'll be a better rebounder and defender than Crawford without being good at either endeavor. If Green gets a shot at some of Jamal Crawford's minutes, we might find ourselves constructing sentences involving the phrase "Mike Bibby wasn't that bad."

Pape Sy might not just be the most interesting reserve guard on this team (until Kirk Hinrich returns), he might be the most talented basketball player. Willie Green and Jannero Pargo are what happen when you can't afford to fill out your roster with guaranteed minimum contracts.

Hawks Sign Jannero Pargo

Fun with the Hoopinion archives, from August 13, 2008:

I thought signing Jannero Pargo was a bad idea but leave it to the Atlanta Hawks to take an unappealing hypothetical transaction and do one worse by making an unexpected actual move that's far more dispiriting: signing Flip Murray to block Acie Law IV.

If believing in Acie Law's potential doesn't take you back, then remember a time before Mike Woodson revealed himself as the lead guard whisperer, a time before I believed that every team should have someone like Jannero Pargo, an in-case-of-emergency-break-glass gunner employed for the express purpose of shooting as often as possible at irregular intervals over the course of the season in games where a conventional, idealistic approach has failed.

Granted, the idea of using a roster spot on such a player assumes fairly idealistic roster construction as a whole, something this Hawks team lacks. Pargo figures to be the backup point guard until Kirk Hinrich returns, getting regular playing time to combine his trademark inefficient scoring with his lack of playmaking ability. But, considering how difficult it is for the rest of the Hawks reserves to score, it's not like a truer, younger point guard such as Donald Sloan figured to have much success creating shots for his fellow reserves.

The pressure only grows on Larry Drew to expand his ability to wring value out of the one-dimensional Jason Collins across the entirety of the bottom half of his roster.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 Now On Sale

Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle were more than a match for the compressed pre-season as Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is available for purchase. In the Hawks chapter, Bradford explores why the Hawks defy their projection system and, for the third year in a row, I'm proud to have submitted a sidebar item.

It's only $9.98 to download. Not yet convinced? Read the free samples.

Hawks Lose Exhibition Opener

Boxscore

• Nobody got hurt.
• Marvin Williams has a strong head of hair.
• Jannero Pargo's joining the Hawks tomorrow, undermining what interest one might have had in watching Donald Sloan and Brad Wanamaker tonight.
• Since basically nobody coming of the bench for the Hawks can score, much less create his own shot, the team's lack of depth is going to appear exaggerated if the reserves play as a unit.
  
• Jerry Stackhouse has nothing left. Hasn't for years.

Thinking Out Loud About the Roster and the Luxury Tax

The season starts in less than two weeks. It hasn't sunk in yet.

I have the Hawks at $69,249,116 plus Keith Benson's rookie deal (terms still undisclosed). The Hawks have 13 guys under contract. By position:

PG: Jeff Teague/Kirk Hinrich (injured)
SG: Joe Johnson/Pape Sy*
SF: Marvin Williams/Tracy McGrady
PF: Josh Smith/Vladimir Radmanovic/Magnum Rolle/Keith Benson
C: Al Horford/Zaza Pachulia/Jason Collins

With only one healthy point guard on the roster, just 12 healthy players total, and at least one rookie who would likely best be served with some playing time in the D-League, and the luxury tax line expected to be around $70.3 million, that appears to present a serious problem. Almost like the Hawks cannot sign a free agent with two or more years of NBA experience without going over the tax line.

Though I'm confident the luxury tax line is an issue for management, it needn't be an absolute concern at this point in time. Presuming the new CBA calculates the luxury tax the same way as the last CBA, the Hawks would only need to get under the tax line before their last game of the season.

Therefore, the Hawks could take advantage of Magnum Rolle's unguaranteed deal either before or during the season, replace him with a player making the two-year veteran minimum and only add roughly $55,500 to their wage bill. Sign a rookie free agent to a partially guaranteed deal to be the 14th player (13th until Kirk Hinrich returns), cut him before his contract become fully guaranteed for the season, stagger the use of 10-day contracts, maybe make a trade at the deadline that sends out more salary than is received, and the Hawks can, fairly comfortably, go over the luxury tax line in December in order to build temporary depth (in numbers if not in quality). Depending on when Hinrich returns vis-a-vis the deadline for contracts to become fully guaranteed, the Hawks could even buy some D-League time for Keith Benson in the middle of the season depending on who they (hypothetically) sign and how they stagger those 10-day contracts.

I admit that such speculation lacks the frisson of how to clear up enough cap room to make a run at Dwight Howard and one of Chris Paul or Deron Williams in the Summer of 2012 scenarios but, as a five-year vet (by choice) of this particular beat, one learns to play the hand dealt.

*For good or for ill (and I'm a serious Pape Sy playing time booster at this point, separate post on that pending), Pape Sy transcends positional designations.

HoopSpeak: Harper: The Hawks and Kumite DVDs

Yesterday, I linked to Eric Freeman using "Kicking and Screaming" to preview the Atlanta Hawks. Today, I link to Zach Harper using some other premillennial home video favorites for the same purpose:

There is something about Van Damme movies that I’ve always enjoyed. Maybe it’s because I can’t do the splits and appreciate that level of flexibility. Maybe it’s that while they’re extremely entertaining and a great way to kill a couple of hours with eyebrow flirting (It’s the only way he knows how to flirt), a disarming and sometimes intelligible accent, and flying roundhouse kicks to catapult through random wood doors and bay windows. Or maybe it’s just that I’ve always wanted the supreme balance to hold my foot in someone’s face and then turn my body 90 degrees before putting it down.

Whatever the reason is, I appreciate the level of entertainment they provide while not having to fully invest in the franchise. You can find a bargain version of each DVD and think you got a steal.

That’s kind of what it’s like following the Atlanta Hawks over the past year. They’ve spent so lavishly on “DVDs” that are so unsatisfying when you realize how much you spent on them, that you start relishing when you find a bargain. Al Horford is a legitimate bargain for the five-year, $60 million extension. Tracy McGrady and whatever he can hopefully bring to the Hawks before his back gives out is probably a steal for the veteran’s minimum.

But do those contracts make you honestly feel better about what the Hawks have going for them? Does it make up for Joe Johnson’s absurd contract or the money you’re paying Josh Smith to sandwich his YouTube highlights betweens multiple slices of horrendous shot selection? We want to like the Hawks because they seem like they’d be really fun. But in reality, it’s a mismatched clusterfluff of annoyance and frustration at what we want the potential to be.

A Terriers* fan would have gone with fustercluck.

*Now streaming on Netflix.

Hoops Analyst: Schreiber: Atlanta Hawks Transactions

Harlan Schreiber weighs in on the Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic signings:

Did you know that T-Mac is only 32? In a part-time role, McGrady wasn’t actually that bad for the Pistons either. The problem is that one of the most exciting players of the 2000s is now, at best, an average bench guy who can’t really get to the line and is a decent shooter. On a playoff-level team, T-Mac’s presence as a cheap filler will have value, assuming the knees hold up well enough. The hope, though, is that McGrady can replace Jamal Crawford off the bench. At first blush this seems silly. McGrady can’t move very well these days and Crawford got ridiculously hot at times. Looking at the advanced metrics, though, T-Mac actually had a slightly higher PER than Crawford (14.9 to 14.2) and shot exactly the same from three (.341%). Does this mean that McGrady is a more valuable player? Well…no. Part of Crawford’s value was the ability to generate tons of shots (13.7 shots and 4.1 free throws per-36 versus 11.0 and 2.8 for McGrady). The Hawks are downgrading on 2010-11 stats (though not by as much as you would think). Still when you combine the volume with the possibility that McGrady might get hurt again or continue his steep decline from his peak, there is plenty of risk that the Hawks will have a big hole at backup sixth man.

As for Radmanovic, he has demonstrated that he will never be a regular but is also useful in a bench role. While Vlad still can’t play any defense and is thus not a viable starter, he will help the Hawks replace the tons of threes lost when Crawford doesn’t come back. In short, the Hawks’ filler is useful but has some holes.

It's going to be heart-in-mouth time whenever a Hawks player turns an ankle this season, but lack of depth is the price you pay for not planning long-term and/or willfully limiting your cap flexibility.

Monday's Pre-Season Game To Be Televised On NBA TV

Atlanta's trip to Charlotte on December 19th will be one of 10 pre-season games shown live over a six-day period on NBA TV. John Schuhmann:

It’s been exactly six months since we’ve seen live NBA basketball, but the drought is about to end. The preseason tips off on Friday. And while the action is bound to be a little sloppy, we’re all salivating at the thought of seeing our teams back in action.

And NBA TV has got you covered, televising 10 preseason games over the course of six days, beginning with No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving‘s first game in an NBA uniform.

Here’s the full NBA TV preseason schedule (all times EST), which includes 18 of the 30 teams…

Friday, Dec. 16
Cleveland @ Detroit, 7:30 p.m.

Saturday, Dec. 17
New York @ New Jersey, 2 p.m.
San Antonio @ Houston, 8 p.m
Sacramento @ Golden State, 10:30 p.m.

Sunday, Dec. 18
Oklahoma City @ Dallas, 7:30 p.m.

Monday, Dec. 19
Atlanta @ Charlotte, 7 p.m.
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers, 10:30 p.m.

Tuesday, Dec. 20
Washington @ Philadelphia, 7 p.m.

Wednesday, Dec. 21
Miami @ Orlando, 7 p.m.
LA Lakers @ LA Clippers, 10:30 p.m.

Post-lockout basketball plus the meaninglessness of exhibition basketball plus the long-gestating need to make snap judgments equals entertainment gold.

Ball Don't Lie: 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks Preview

Kelly Dwyer, Dan Devine, and Eric Freeman preview the Atlanta Hawks.

Dwyer:

The Hawks have been so consistent in their 45-win'ness that you wonder what a significant shock to the system would do to this club. The offense should vault up a tick this season based on the presence of a well-rested McGrady and Johnson's assumed return to form, but unless a whole lot of the East tears a whole lot of ligaments, the Hawks seem safe in their station. Set to look sound for stretches and take in whatever playoff gate receipts away them in spring.

Devine:

Three years after spending a first-round draft pick on Teague, it's time for the Hawks to give him an actual, honest-to-goodness chance to play starters' minutes.

They need to find out if he can be the brand of explosive backcourt creator they've so desperately needed since choosing Marvin Williams over Deron Williams and Chris Paul in the 2005 NBA Draft. (And if you've always viewed Jason Terry as more of a two-in-one's-clothing than a real point guard, you might even argue that they've needed that type of player since Mookie Blaylock went west.) If Teague can prove that his play against the Bulls was the rule rather than the exception, he could be just the sort of spark that can help a relatively stagnant, middle-of-the-pack team finally break through that second-round ceiling.

Freeman:

In Noah Baumbach's first (and still best) feature, "Kicking and Screaming" (which isn't the Will Ferrell soccer movie), a group of friends graduate college and spend the rest of the movie doing very little else with their lives. One pines after his absent girlfriend, some join book clubs just to feel relevant, and pretty much everyone starts dating much younger women. The majority of hope is felt in remembering good things that happened in the past. It'd all be depressing, if not for Baumbach's extremely clever script and great performances from Josh Hamilton (who isn't the baseball player) and especially Chris Eigeman.

The Hawks have effectively graduated from promising young playoff team to postseason mainstay, but in doing so they've seen their trajectory flatten considerably. They're really not building towards anything anymore -- it's all cool Josh Smith dunks, 25-point games from Joe Johnson, and quality all-around play from Al Horford in the service of another middling seed and a less-than-stellar playoff series.

ESPN.com: Southeast Division Daily Dime Live

Daily Dime Live previews the Southeast Division from 11am to 4pm today. The Hawks will be covered from 2-3pm. Not by me, though. Consider that fair warning or a bonus.

Hawks Sign Vladimir Radmanovic, Politely Ask Him To Go Stand in the Corner

You're not going to get good all-around players for the league minimum and, if you focus your acquisitive efforts on guys in their thirties, you're not looking for potential. The Hawks aren't looking to discover* Gary Neal or Reggie Williams or Anthony Morrow. Instead, they're looking at what guys once were, and hoping that, for another eight or nine hundred minutes, what they are is a reasonable, if faded, facsimile of what they once were.

Vladimir Radmanovic can make threes. The Hawks were 17th in the league in three-pointers made an 18th in the league in three-point field goal percentage. As long as others create shots for him, he should knock them down. He won't turn the ball over. Signing him doesn't signal a move toward a defensive-oriented philosophy, but he's a decent defensive rebounder for a stretch-four and anything that improves the Hawks' spacing will be an improvement over last season.

*Brad Wanamaker, Donald Sloan, please feel free to prove me wrong.

ProBasketballTalk: Mahoney: Hawks show uncharacteristic sensibility with signing of Tracy McGrady

The NBA needn't be officially open for business for me to take an unpopular and possibly incorrect position. Bronn made a case for Tracy McGrady in the comments of that post and Rob Mahoney compliments the Hawks for signing McGrady at Pro Basketball Talk today:

McGrady may not have the ability to dribble-penetrating ability that Atlanta so desperately needs, but he’s an incredibly cost-efficient addition capable of hedging against the seemingly inevitable loss of Jamal Crawford. The Hawks aren’t in a position where re-signing Crawford makes financial sense; they already have $66 million in salary committed for this season and $62 million committed next year, meaning that Crawford’s deal would likely push a solid — but firmly non-contending — team over the luxury tax line. Even beyond the practical consideration of overpaying a dwindling, inefficient scorer like Crawford, the financial realities for a tax-averse team like Atlanta make a re-signing a virtual impossibility.

Such is the reality for a franchise that presented Joe Johnson with a golden effigy on the first day of free agency last season, invested in Marvin Williams to the tune of $8 million a year, and took every shortcut there is to take in team construction.

All of which makes McGrady — who will join the Hawks on a one-year, minimum salary deal — an oddly reasonable signing.

...

For the league minimum, this is very likely the best the Hawks could possibly do. McGrady isn’t what he once was (and certainly isn’t Crawford), but this is a smart, economical move for a team with such a cluttered cap sheet.

John Hollinger's player profile of McGrady (Insider) provides further reason for measured optimism:

McGrady was an intriguing player to watch last season because of the huge variance in his play from night to night. There were games when his legs were back and it looked like the old days -- soaring over defenders for jumpers, driving and finding open men, or dunking at the rim. Other nights you wanted to run out on the court and give him a Segway to get around.

If Larry Drew can spot McGrady with anything approaching the alacrity with which he used Jason Collins for much of last season, the Hawks may have another interesting low-minute impact player. Maybe McGrady's comeback season in Detroit suffered from too much playing time and, if he doesn't have 1600 good minutes in him, he has 800.

Then there's the chance that signing McGrady signals something of a philosophical shift for the Hawks. Collins, reportedly, will return on a third consecutive one-year deal. Earl Watson, his value heavy on the defensive end as well, may serve as the injured Kirk Hinrich's understudy. And trading Jamal Crawford for Ronnie Brewer, whether it comes to pass or not, is emphatically not a typical move for this franchise.

Now, any or all of these signings come with a price. Namely, that none of these guys can shoot. But the Hawks should, with Josh Smith and Al Horford and (a healthy) Joe Johnson and (an on-court) Jeff Teague should be able to get away with having a defense-first player on the court at all times. Smith and Horford, in particular, have carried a heavy defensive workload to keep the Hawks a league average defensive club the past two seasons. Who knows what they could accomplish with a little help on the perimeter? A lighter defensive workload might even make a positive impact for them, and the team, on the offensive end.

ESPN.com: Smith: Atlanta Hawks Agree To One-Year Deal With Tracy McGrady

Stephen A. Smith reports that the Atlanta Hawks have agreed to a one-year deal with Tracy McGrady for, natch, the veteran's minimum. McGrady's physical decline and his accompanying, increasingly impotent on-court performance makes me feel sad and old. And now he's a Hawk.

Let's go down the Hawks' free agent checklist...

Cheap? Yes.

Old? 32 years worth, not counting the history of back and knee problems.

A recognizable name? Yes, though signing McGrady represents something of a breakthrough for the Hawks as he's recognizable for being a once great basketball player rather than going to high school or college in Atlanta or being the nephew of the city's greatest professional basketball player.

Little reason for optimism evident in his recent performance record? Yes. McGrady had something of a bounce-back season, more due to how horrific his 2009-10 season was than anything special he achieved in 2010-11.

Tracy McGrady scored at a lower rate than Marvin Williams last season. McGrady set a career low in usage rate and a career high in turnover rate. He's no sort of replacement for Jamal Crawford and I say that as one who thinks Jamal Crawford shouldn't be replaced in a straight like-for-like (but cheaper) exchange. Maybe McGrady is a better* option at the 2 than Damien Wilkins when Larry Drew wants to go big and McGrady will certainly out-rebound Crawford (and probably Joe Johnson, too), but any positive contributions from McGrady will constitute more of a feel good story than reasonable expectations, like playing a little better than Damien Wilkins, being met.

*Optimism alert: The Pistons were measurably less bad defensively with McGrady on the court last season and he made box score defensive plays at something approaching his career rate.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Atlanta Hawks Player Profiles

John Hollinger's player profiles for the Atlanta Hawks (Insider) are officially up today. For those of you without Insider access, today's 5-on-5 is all about the Hawks.

2010-11 Season Review: Josh Powell

Previously: Kirk Hinrich, Jeff Teague, Marvin Williams, Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

Quite predictably, Josh Powell was a complete disaster, needing only 653 minute of court time to turn the team's point differential from positive (+50 when Powell didn't play) to negative (-117 when Powell was on the court).

In his previous two seasons, the Los Angeles Lakers were outscored by 8.4 and 5.7 points per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor. Last season, the Hawks were outscored by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor. It was worse than that during the competitive portion of the schedule, as Powell played 90 minutes with a plus/minus of just -2 over the final four games of the season, games which the Hawks did not try very hard to win.

By his standards, Powell had a decent offensive season, scoring 12 points per 36 minutes while approaching 50 TS%, and getting 9% of available offensive rebounds. Even on a team that featured Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford, Powell's embarrassing defense stood out. His method of defending the pick-and-roll by running hard toward the half-court line, past both ball-handler and screener, and setting his hips perpendicular to the baseline beggarded belief. To Powell's credit, despite frequently having his back turned to potential defensive rebounds, he did manage to equal Marvin Williams' DR% over the course of the season.

Powell earned credit for his locker room presence in Los Angeles, so it should be noted that he was twice suspended (for one game each time) by Larry Drew, not counting the game he missed after getting arrested for a moving violation on the way to Philips Arena.

Off the Dribble: Mahoney: Give Teague a Chance

Friend of the blog, Rob Mahoney, makes the case for Jeff Teague at NYTimes.com's NBA blog:

Increasing the minutes for Jeff Teague is one of the few low-cost, high-reward propositions the Hawks have for boosting their performance. He isn’t an All-Star caliber player by any means, but Teague presents Atlanta with a more dynamic scoring guard to accentuate the roster’s offensive versatility. In his one playoff series with operational freedom, Teague led the Hawks in scoring in three out of six games – topping 20 points on each occasion in slow-paced games played against the best defense in the league.

On a Hawks team that is committed to the inefficiency of long 2-pointers and tough pull-up jumpers out of isolation, Teague brought a .514 playoff field goal percentage while committing few turnovers. He went from playing marginal minutes to doing 40 a night, and led the Hawks in playoff P.E.R. (Player Efficiency Rating) in the process. If you’re looking for a compelling reason Atlanta was able to play effectively against Chicago in the postseason, I see few more valid explanations than Teague’s performance.

This coming year is Teague’s chance to build on that success, but he can only do so with Drew’s approval.

It is not uncommon for coaches to trust veterans over young players, but the basis for that perspective in Teague’s case is now gone. Teague has produced as a meaningful member of Atlanta’s lineup in a way that Hinrich never could, and if Drew is finally willing to let Teague continue to explore his optimal role, the Hawks will be all the better for it.

Good News/Bad News: Josh Smith Drops Weight, Kirk Hinrich Drops One Healthy Shoulder

Official NBA business need not resume for the league's finest beat writer to display mid-season form. Michael Cunningham dropped news good and bad last night.

First, the good news: Josh Smith is visibly slimmer. Cunningham:

I noted he looked to be in good shape when I saw him at the local pickup game back in October, but he’s even slimmer now, suggesting he’s been putting in work since then. The torso is slimmer but the shoulders are still stout, as you can see here at the Hawks web site.

In reviewing Josh Smith's 2010-11 performance, I speculated that his weight might have contributed to his perimeter-oriented play, a situation that rendered the value of his improved shooting essentially nil. Josh Smith, in better shape, might more regularly make the effort to take the shots he can make most often, while also getting back to the offensive glass and the free throw line.

Now for the bad news: the Hawks have just seven players under contract, are $7 million over the cap and one of those seven players won't be healthy to start the season. Kirk Hinrich had shoulder surgery about a month ago:

Hawks general manager Rick Sund said guard Kirk Hinrich had surgery to to remove a cyst and repair the labrum in his left shoulder and is expected to miss at least the first month of the regular season.

Hinrich experienced discomfort in his shoulder as a result of offseason workouts and had the procedure in early November.

“The injury typically requires three to four months of recovery,” Sund said

Based on that timeline, Hinrich could be out through the end of February. The 66-game NBA regular season schedule is to begin Dec. 25 if there are no snags in the ratification of the new collective bargaining agreement.

(NOTE: Ken Berger first reported Hinrich's surgery).

The Hawks figured to augment the seven players under contract by picking up Pape Sy's unguaranteed deal, trying to re-sign Damien Wilkins and Jason Collins, and possibly Magnum Rolle if he has an opt-out to his Korean deal. With Hinrich out for up to two months, the Hawks will have to acquire a cheap backup (or backups) for both guard spots. Obvious candidates such as Mustafa Shakur and Garrett Temple are in Europe and they aren't coming back for the season. Not that the Hawks need any encouragement to look to veterans to fill out the rotation.

The Free Agent Clearinghouse Post

At SBNation, Tom Ziller provides a list of all 2012 NBA free agents, restricted and unrestricted.

At Baskerball-Reference.com, Neil Paine lists all the guys who are playing overseas but do not have an opt-out clause. (In related news, the 2010-11 Season Review: Josh Powell is on deck.)

Keeping in mind the salary cap limitations (barring an unexpected leap into the realm of NBA luxury tax payers) the Hawks have created for themselves means they might need to include a a rookie free agent or two in their December acquisitions, speculate away.

2010-11 Season Review: Kirk Hinrich

Previously: Jeff Teague, Marvin Williams, Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

The Hawks acquired Kirk Hinirch too late in the season (and Hinrich is too far past his peak) for him to have any real impact on their record but he formed, with Jason Collins and Jamal Crawford, the unlikely triumvirate central to Atlanta's first round playoff upset of the Orlando Magic. Hinrich even timed his season-ending injury such that the outcome of the first series was not put in jeopardy while giving Jeff Teague his first real opportunity to demonstrate that he can play.

Yes, the Hawks gave up a lot to acquire Hinrich, but that's more a giving Mike Bibby a three-year contract problem than a Kirk Hinrich problem. If the Hawks choose to keep Hinrich, he can play alongside either Teague or Joe Johnson, providing useful positional versatility on what figures to be a shallow roster. That positional versatility at both ends of the floor also makes Hinrich the team's second-most valuable* trade asset.

*assuming the team would trade, at most, only one of Josh Smith or Al Horford

Unlike last season, where trading Jamal Crawford in the final year of his contract made theoretical sense but lacked practical plausibility, let's remember that Hinrich was acquired not for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton's expiring deal but for Jordan Crawford and a first round pick. If the Hawks decide to deal Hinrich (a decision that may strain credulity as it assumes the Hawks taking a long-term approach to roster and cap management), they might get back some of what they gave up to acquire Hinrich in the first place.

2010-11 Season Review: Jeff Teague

Previously: Marvin Williams, Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

Even though he played better in his second season than he did in his rookie campaign, Jeff Teague could not turn competent performances into consistent playing time. Even though Teague's box score numbers compared favorably both to the team's other options and backup point guards around the league and his on/off numbers were perfectly fine* when paired with a regular member of the team's 2-guard rotation.

*Updating those on/off numbers for the full season: the Hawks were -1.2 points per 100 possessions (over 1536 possessions) when Teague wasn't paired with Jordan Crawford, Pape Sy, Mike Bibby or Damien Wilkins in the backcourt.

The questions about Jeff Teague took a turn to the meta as the season progressed. Did his inability to earn regular playing time from two different head coaches over two full seasons despite all public evidence indicating the ability to do a job speak more to him having limitations largely imperceptible to outsiders or a greater organizational dysfunction?

Then Kirk Hinrich got hurt in Game 6 of the Orlando series and Larry Drew no choice but to give Jeff Teague regular minutes in Atlanta's second round series against the Chicago Bulls. Against newly-crowned MVP Derrick Rose. And the question was answered quickly and decisively. It wasn't because Teague can't play. Before his injury-shortened appearance in Game 6, Teague played more than 40 minutes a night in the series, scored more than 16 points a game with a 61.3 TS%, 22 assists against just 5 turnovers, 3 rebounds* a game, 6 steals and 3 blocks.

Beyond the numbers, Teague provided things in that playoff series that the Hawks so often lacked during the season: dribble penetration, trips to the free throw line, active perimeter defense. Given regular opportunities, he should (as long as his relatively slight frame can withstand his relatively physical style of play) do so again.

*Not a lot unless the baseline for point guard rebounding has been established by Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford and any activity on the glass counts as value added.

Zaza Pachulia, Pape Sy Productive in Europe

Zaza Pachulia scored 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as Galatasaray beat Asseco Prokom 78-76 in Euroleague play on Thursday.

Pape Sy has overcome a slow start for Gravelines-Dunkerque to score 69 points on just 38 shots in just 78 minutes over his last five league games. In two Euro Cup games, Sy has scored 25 points on 17 shots and grabbed 11 rebounds in just under 35 minutes. Sy has only played nine games for Gravelines-Dunkerque but it's been far and away the most productive stretch of his professional career and an encouraging sign for an Atlanta Hawks team that may lack options when filling out its roster.

Amnesty Options for the Atlanta Hawks

Assuming the new CBA gets ratified by both players and owners, it will contain the following amnesty provision:

• Each team permitted to waive 1 player prior to any season of the CBA (only for contracts in place at the inception of the CBA) and have 100% of the player’s salary removed from team salary for Cap and Tax purposes.
• Salary of amnestied players included for purposes of calculating players’ agreed-upon share of BRI.
• A modified waiver process will be utilized for players waived pursuant to the Amnesty rule, under which teams with Room under the Cap can submit competing offers to assume some but not all of the player’s remaining contract. If a player’s contract is claimed in this manner, the remaining portion of the player’s salary will continue to be paid by the team that waived him.

The Hawks are in a pretty terrible position with regard to the salary cap: about $7 million over the cap (counting neither the unguaranteed deals to Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle nor cap holds for the empty roster spaces) despite having just seven players under contract for the 2011-12 season and only $4 million scheduled to come off the books (and some guaranteed money to be added should the team keep its first round draft pick) after the season. The Hawks are both unlikely to pay the luxury tax and unlikely to get under the salary cap by any significant amount for either the 2011-12 or 2012-13 seasons.

What follows may be an academic exercise. The current ownership group chose to keep Randolph Morris on the roster to play 124 minutes in 2009-10 rather than pay him the $855,189 he was guaranteed and either use his roster spot on someone potentially useful or sign an additional player who might have been more productive. Admittedly, this history creates plausibility problems for the options discussed below, wherein ASG would choose to risk paying 10 times as much as Morris was due in 2009-10 for a far more useful professional basketball player not to play for the Hawks.

So, disclaiming the very real possibility that the Hawks will never use the amnesty provision of the new, tentatively agreed-upon CBA, the team has three potential amnesty options:

1) Kirk Hinrich -- Using the amnesty provision on Hinrich would be the cheapest option as his pro-rated 2011-12 salary will be around $6.5 million. Presumably, using the provision on Hinrich would be a short-term move inspired by a desire to use the MLE*, the Bi-Annual Exception, or just fill out the back end of the roster with veterans rather than the likes of Pape Sy, Keith Benson, Magnum Rolle, or their inexperienced (and cheaper) ilk. I suspect the Hawks are more likely to trade Hinrich than use the amnesty provision on him.

*Choosing to amnesty Hinrich in order to use the MLE to re-sign Jamal Crawford is probably the worst of all potential choices.

2) Marvin Williams -- If the Hawks amnesty Williams before this season starts, they'll still owe him $25 million and would be under the salary cap, but by less than $1 million and with seven roster to spots to fill. If the Hawks amnesty Williams before next season, they'd owe him just under $17 million and would be below $52 million in salary owed (not counting a 2012 first round pick's guaranteed contract) to the five remaining players under contract.

As the Hawks don't gain much flexibility by just using the amnesty provision on Williams before this season begins (though the combination of amnestying Williams and trading Hinrich might have interesting consequences), the number and type of players other teams amnesty will likely impact the Hawks' decision. If a bunch of teams use the amnesty provision immediately, then it's less likely Williams would draw sufficient interest under the third part of the amnesty provision wherein another team currently under the cap would defray some of the money Atlanta owes him. However, that might mean that Williams would draw greater interest as an amnestied free agent next summer when teams had fewer options from which to choose.

The reverse is not necessarily true. Even if the majority of teams hold on to their amnesty provision, Williams' market value is at an all-time low right now so the Hawks might not benefit from a thin market of amnestied players in December.

3) Joe Johnson -- If things go south (or even stagnate) for the Hawks over the course of this season and the next, 2013 could hold massive rebuilding potential for the team. Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Jeff Teague (if the Hawks make a qualifying offer for him) are the only players currently under contract beyond the end of the 2012-13 season.

If rebuilding becomes a reality, the Hawks would also figure to have their 2012 and 2013 first round picks under contract, plus the haul from a Josh Smith trade (as it's highly unlikely the Hawks will just let Smith leave via free agency). In such a scenario, the Hawks might have enough players on team-friendly contracts that it would make sense both to pay Joe Johnson the remaining $69 million in order to get that cap space back and pursue free agents in 2013 and 2014.

Because of that third part of the amnesty provision, there is a chance that it would make sense for a team under the salary cap to assume some of Joe Johnson's contract and defray the cost to the Hawks of using the amnesty provision on Johnson. Again, it's not that Joe Johnson is a worthless basketball player, it's just that he's not going to be worth $20+ million dollars a year for his age 32-34 seasons.

NBA Basketball Tentatively Coming Soon

There's a handshake deal in place for a labor agreement that would result in a 66-game season beginning on December 25th. Players and owners must still vote to approve the deal.

The players should vote for the deal because professional basketball careers are short and it's better to be paid under an owner-friendly CBA* than not paid at all. The owners should vote for the deal because they've won hundreds of millions of dollars, annually, from the players and because, by cramming 66 games into the schedule the quality of play may be sufficiently degraded to achieve some semblance of competitive balance.

*It remains a fair question as to whether the NBPA should have recognized their collective lack of leverage and the extreme hard-line positions of a sizable minority of owners and decertified the union far earlier in the process.

As the deal gets approved or not, as practical applications of the new CBA's provisions become clear and as free agency approaches on December 9th, the focus on team-specific concerns will return to this space, like the approaching season, in concentrated form.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Marginal Value of Assists

There's no basketball but John Hollinger, who might serve as a humbling example to others, hasn't let that stop him from writing his annual player comments (Insider). Because of the lockout, the fine editors of the NBA section at ESPN.com are doling Hollinger's player comments out one team at a time. The Mavericks and Heat are the only two teams revealed thus far, so it might be a couple weeks until we get a full set of comments about the Atlanta Hawks but, within the LeBron James comment, we learn that, among players with at least 300 assists last season, Joe Johnson's assists provided the lowest average marginal value. The league average assist during the 2010-11 season was worth two-thirds of point. The average Joe Johnson assist was worth .572 points.

The methodology:

Based on shooting percentages at each distance, I calculated that the marginal value of an average dunk/layup assist is about 1.329 points in 2010-11, whereas the marginal value of an assist on a long 2 was just 0.356 points.

As always, this is surely down both to Joe Johnson's particular skills and style of play and a generally dysfunctional Atlanta Hawks offense to which we were witness last season. Atlanta Hawks in long 2-point predilection shocker!

Perhaps more time for Johnson at small forward will make a positive difference whenever we resume regular operations.

"The Atlanta Hawks Are No Longer For Sale"

So says Bruce Levenson, one of the men who brought you going-down-the-list-of-general-manager-candidates-until-you-find-one-that-agrees-not-to-have-the-authority-to-choose-the-head-coach and almost-three-quarters-of-Joe Johnson's-career-is-worth-$200 million-plus-two-first-round-draft-picks-and-a-league-average-player after the deal to loan Alex Meruelo the money to buy a majority share of the Hawks was terminated by mutual agreement.

Dinamo Sassari Cuts Keith Benson After Four Games

Per Michael Cunningham, Dinamo Sassari have cut Keith Benson:

Dinamo Sassari waived Hawks draftee Keith “Kito” Benson. Benson’s mother, Janice Hale, called it a “mutual parting of ways” and said Benson will work out at Oakland (Mich.) University with a focus on building his strength.

Benson's stats

Sportando Basket tweeted details to Cunningham:

@ajchawks he didn't show his skillse.He had a tough and difficult task, to replace one of the idols of Sassari's fans, Othello Hunter

Othello Hunter.

Which isn't to say that Benson wasn't a perfectly cromulent use of the 48th pick in the draft so much as to remind everyone that the 48th pick in the draft is highly unlikely to contribute in Serie A, much less the NBA. I've always liked Hunter and Benson's superior length might be sufficient for him to carve out the NBA role that has eluded Hunter, as an undersized four, thus far.

Pape Sy Explodes For 25 Points in 20 Minutes

With no NBA basketball for at least another month, these weekly updates from Europe are here to stay. This edition differs from its predecessors by virtue of unfettered* good news.

On Saturday, BCM Gravelines beat Pau-Lacq-Orthez 89-60, led by Pape Sy's 25 points on 11 shots in 20 minutes. Sy made three of five three-pointers, five of six two-point attempts and all six of his free throws. Sy grabbed four rebounds, earned an assist, committed a turnover and drew seven fouls.

*For example, this footnote will provide the post's only mention of Keith Benson

2010-11 Season Review: Marvin Williams

Previously: Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

There are, I suspect, few remaining believers in Marvin Williams. It appears unlikely that he will develop into a deadly spot-up shooter with three-point range, nor a reliable finisher in transition, nor a dangerous threat in the post who utilizes his size advantage over many small forwards. Last season, whether through injury, further erosion in confidence or both, Williams even regressed defensively. Late in the season, once the Hawks had Jason Collins and Kirk Hinrich and Damien Wilkins all on the roster, there rarely was a compelling reason to play Williams other than his decent-to-good rebounding rate, one far superior to any of the alternatives.

Perhaps back surgery and a late start to the season will make Williams more physically capable than he appeared much of last season. Perhaps Jeff Teague's performance against the Bulls in the playoffs* combined with the (likely) lack of depth will push Williams into a defined role as a leader of the second unit, a role where expectations might better match his capabilities. Then again, depending on how elastic** an amnesty clause the new CBA contains, Williams and the Hawks may be able to part ways before the new season begins. It might be best for both parties.

*It is in the playoffs where Williams' performance becomes indefensible, where it degrades from disappointingly average (but useful) to inarguably poor.

**The more elastic an amnesty clause, the chance that the Hawks use it to get out from under Joe Johnson's contracts increases. Not a lot, but some.

Alex Meruelo May Not Have the Money To Buy the Hawks

Remember this Forbes story from August that received little attention? Allow me to quote it once more:

Alex Meruelo's purchase of the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks and lease to Philips Arena, pending approval from the league’s owners, would be heavily financed by the current owner of those assets, Atlanta Spirit LLC.

According to a person with first-hand knowledge of the deal, 40% of the purchase is to be financed by Atlanta Spirit LLC for five years, which is probably why there has been so much confusion regarding how much Meruelo is paying for the money-losing team we valued at $295 million this past January.

Seller financing is unusual in sports and typically involves poorly capitalized teams. The purchase of MLB’s currently bankrupt Los Angeles Dodgers by Frank McCourt from Fox in 2004 involved considerable financing from the News Corp. subsidiary. And the sale of the NHL’s Tampa Bay Lightning in 2008 by William Davidson to Oren Koules and Len Barrie was partially financed by Davidson. Shortly thereafter Koules and Barrie sold the under-capitalized hockey team to Boston Red Sox minority owner Jeff Vinik for much less than they paid for it.

Almost makes you wish the lone blogger who made mention of it 10 weeks ago had some (any) reportorial skills, no?

This evening, Marc Stein follows up with this report about Alex Meruelo's lack of funds to buy an NBA team (HT: Kurt Helin):

Sources told ESPN.com on Wednesday that there are concerns at the league level and within the Hawks' current ownership group, headed by Michael Gearon Jr. and Bruce Levenson, about whether Meruelo indeed has the sufficient funds to purchase a majority stake in the franchise and operate an NBA team.

...

It was initially believed that the approval process was moving slowly because the NBA's resources have been largely devoted to ongoing negotiations with the NBA Players Association as part of a lockout that Wednesday reached its 117th day.

But sources indicate that the prospect of Meruelo's deal collapsing was mentioned Tuesday when the Board of Governors convened in New York to discuss revenue-sharing plans.

And the ongoing lockout did not prevent the NBA from announcing last week that the Board of Governors had unanimously approved the sale of the Philadelphia 76ers from from Comcast-Spectacor to a group led by private-equity billionaire Joshua Harris.

The Hawks are almost certainly in a bad way cap-wise regardless of the particulars of the new CBA. ASG made sure of that. The last thing this franchise needs is a cash-poor owner attempting to deal with the limitations imposed by his predecessors.

This Week's Atlanta Hawks in Europe Update

Keith Benson: not cut by Dinamo Sassari.

Steven Hunter: signed by Dinamo Sassari in a move independent of Benson's status.

Pape Sy: returns to action to score two points on five shots in nine minutes.

Zaza Pachulia: maybe hurt.

Summarizing the Atlanta Hawks As Featured In #NBArank

From Al Horford at 25th with a score of 7.8 to Keith Benson at 495th with a score of 1.63, a complete list of once, current and (possibly) future Hawks, per #NBArank.

Even though I learned my colleagues seriously underrate Josh Smith (flaws and all), I quite enjoyed participating both during the attempt-to-rank-several-hundred-professional-basketball-players-fairly-and-coherently stage and in seeing the breadth and depth of opinions from my colleagues. Especially when they were wrong disagreed with me.

Keith Benson, Pape Sy Off To Slow Starts In Italy, France

It's just two games in Keith Benson's case but Dinamo Sassari (former home of Othello Hunter) weren't impressed. Via Sportando Basket's Twitter feed:

Atlanta Hawks draftee Keith Benson on the verge to be waived by Dinamo Sassari after 2 Serie A games. Benson averages 6pt and 4rb in 21.5min

and:

Not official yet but Hawks draftee Keith Benson is out of Dinamo Sassari. He might play 1more game coz they don't have replacement yet.

Meanwhile in France, Pape Sy played in one of BCM Gravelines first two games, a 77-73 loss to Chalon (for whom Alade Aminu had 15 and 7 in 29 minutes), scoring 3 points in 13 minutes. Sy did not play in Gravelines' 91-59 victory over Roanne on Saturday.

Zaza Pachulia scored 10 points in Galatasaray's season opening win.

2010-11 Season Review: Jason Collins

Previously: Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

Everyone deserves credit. Jason Collins deserves credit for getting into shape. Rick Sund deserves credit for signing him. Larry Drew deserves credit for using him almost exclusively in situations appropriate to his specific skill. Josh Smith and Al Horford deserve credit for playing good defense alongside Collins at their secondary defensive positions. The fates deserve credit for delivering the Orlando Magic as Atlanta'a opponent in the first round of the playoffs.

The Hawks allowed more than 11 fewer points per 100 possessions with Collins on the court during both the regular season and the playoffs. Quite simply, without the 593 regular season minutes Collins played and the 103 minutes he spent defending Dwight Howard in the first round of the playoffs, the 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks season, by the organization's recent standard of competence, would have been an abject failure.

I didn't see it coming. Nor was there a single thing about the season I enjoyed more than the success the team enjoyed when Collins was on the court.

The Season Will Be Fewer Than 77 Games Long

I haven't chosen to write about it much, what with the Hawks in ownership limbo and a non-factor* in the present negotiations but, once the owners, largely via David Stern, chose belligerence as their default public relations stance, I feared this day would come.

*The Atlanta Spirit Group's past actions are clearly relevant both to the hard-line stance the owners are taking and the volume of money players are being asked to relinquish going forward.

The players have, thus far, tempered their very real self-interest with a more voluble interest in the health of the league than the owners. The players have attempted to negotiate. The owners are taking a shot at breaking the union to guarantee operating profits regardless of the decisions they make, profits above and beyond those they (mostly) realize upon selling their teams. There are reasonable, owner-friendly proposals that could have secured a new CBA by now: players taking less than 57% of BRI, a reduced MLE, adjustments to the overall and guaranteed length of player contracts, some manner of revenue sharing amongst themselves.

The players want to make a deal that will pay them fairly* over the course of their necessarily finite careers. The owners don't want to make a deal. Not yet.

*Relative to the volumes we're willing to spend on one of the finest forms of entertainment and vicarious accomplishment yet invented.

The owners want to correct years of mistakes -- over-leveraged purchases, bad hires, meddling in basketball decisions and the resulting bad contracts -- in one fell swoop and on the players' dime. And those owners who haven't made so many bad decisions, those that run profitable and/or successful franchises, they don't want to prop up the profligate, the short-sighted, the entitled beyond the necessity of there being 30 teams in the league.

So all involved will lose money in the short term. Some of the parties involved will make that money back in the future. These basketball games will never be replaced.

Goodnight, Minneapolis.

Goodnight, Celtics.

Goodnight, Chicago.

Goodnight, Knicks.

Goodnight, Jazz.

Goodnight, Orlando.

2010-11 Season Review: Jamal Crawford

Previously: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

Quite predictably, Jamal Crawford couldn't muster back-to-back career years. Without the freedom Mike Woodson granted him to focus on scoring (and nothing but) Crawford turned back into the player he'd always been. Crawford's 2009-10 season was a remarkable gift that provided a surprisingly substantial return on the $19 million the Hawks paid him over the last two seasons. (As did the 123 points he scored against the Magic in the first round of the 2011 playoffs.) Make no mistake, the 2010-11 regular provided a lengthy look at a typical Jamal Crawford season.

Crawford	Pts/36	TS%	Ast/36	TO/36	Usg Rate
2009-10	20.9	57.3	3.5	2.0	25.8
2010-11	16.9	54.5	3.8	2.3	23.4
Career	17.2	52.6	4.4	2.3	23.4

Even as he went about winning the Sixth Man of Year award, the conventional wisdom regarding Crawford held true -- he's useful when his shots go in; he's useless when they don't. Given his limitations as a decision-maker when given the responsibility to decide between shooting or passing and his complete inability to rebound or defend, Crawford's value rests entirely on his scoring rate and his scoring efficiency. He was slightly above the league average in both respects last season:

2010-11	Pts/36	TS%
Crawford	16.9	54.5
NBA	14.8	54.1

Given that the Hawks played 4-on-5 whenever the other team had the ball or a shot went up* when Crawford was on the court, he needs to be more than a slightly above average scorer to justify his cost. To put Crawford's 2010-11 offensive contributions in perspective, he used an offensive possession 18.8% more often than did Al Horford, resulting in a scoring rate just 7.6% higher than Horford. The concerns about Horford's limitations as a scorer are legitimate. Minus whatever alchemy Mike Woodson used to transform Flip Murray into a useful NBA player, Jamal Crawford, who is only a scorer, was hardly more productive (and far less efficient) than Al Horford in his efforts to put the ball in the basket.

*Though, perhaps due to the likelihood that Crawford would shoot the ball when in the game, the Hawks posted a higher offensive rebound rate when Crawford was on the floor each of the last two seasons. Unfortunately, the increase in their opposition's offensive rebound rate was equal or greater.

During the 2009-10 season, Rick Sund deserved credit for acquiring Crawford while giving up just Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton's expiring contract, Mike Woodson deserved credit for playing to Crawford's strengths, Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams deserved credit for mitigating Crawford's weaknesses and Crawford deserved credit for making a lot of shots. During the 2010-11 season, it became abundantly clear why Golden State would choose not to pay the last two years of Crawford's contract.

Over his two seasons in Atlanta, the Hawks got more value from Crawford than anyone could have anticipated. Looking ahead, the team does not appear to be in a position to spend much on a player who shares many of Joe Johnson's limitations, while being older and inferior, a player whose presence would only further stunt the development of the franchise's lone remaining young, cheap asset. Barring a trade, Kirk Hinrich figures to fill the role of the overpaid veteran guard who provides a narrow utility. Hinrich, theoretically, could better complement Johnson and Jeff Teague than Crawford.

Zaza Pachulia to Play for Galatasaray

His rumored deal with Besiktas never materialized, but, in the absence of NBA basketball, Zaza Pachulia will play in Turkey. Galatasaray qualified for Euroleague this season which means those with access to ESPN3 may get to watch a Hawk play professional basketball this autumn.