Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Breaking Down Jeff Teague's Backcourt Partners

Just as in 2009-10, the Atlanta Hawks are much worse in 2010-11 when one-time point guard of the future Jeff Teague is on the court. Teague's box score stats have generally improved in his sophomore season, so it's fair to wonder if the constancy of his on/off stats (with admittedly small sample sizes from both seasons) better represents the quality of his play.

Following the lead of the organization's actions, I've essentially written off the possibility of Teague contributing to the Atlanta Hawks now or in the future, but is that fair?

Breaking down his performance based on who shares the backcourt with him, it's clear that the Hawks are far better off when Teague plays the point alongside a veteran two guard:

2 GuardPossOff EffDef EffDiff
Ja. Crawford585107.6105.9+1.7
Evans6510390.6+13.6
Johnson41104.889.7+15.1

Than when he plays alongside a veteran point guard:

2 GuardPossOff EffDef EffDiff
Bibby2692103.8-11.8

Or alongside a small forward playing out of position:

2 GuardPossOffEffDefEffDiff
Wilkins33109.7117.1-7.4
Williams420200-180

Or alongside a rookie shooting guard:

2 GuardPossOff EffDef EffDiff
Jo. Crawford7696140.8-44.8

Eliminate the 76 possessions Teague has played alongside Jordan Crawford and his season numbers would look like this:

PlayerPossOff EffDef EffDiff
Teague753106104.5+1.5

Rather than this:

PlayerPossOff EffDef EffDiff
Teague829105.1107.8-2.7

Eliminate all the possessions alongside Jordan Crawford, Bibby, or the two small forwards playing 2-guard, and Teague's on/off numbers this season look like this:

PlayerPossOff EffDef EffDiff
Teague691107103.6+3.4

Bear in mind that, on the season, the Hawks have outscored opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Based on both this season's box score stats and the team's performance
when Teague plays alongside a genuine, NBA-caliber 2-guard he appears a perfectly adequate backup point guard. Given his youth and the lack of a perfectly adequate starting point guard on the Atlanta Hawks roster he probably still deserves regular minutes both for the benefit of the 2010-11 team and whatever chance exists that Teague has not yet maximized his talents.

1 comment:

Luke said...

While in the grand scheme of things, there are bigger PG draft misses to lament, it still grinds my gears that we missed out on Ty Lawson by one or two picks.

Will this franchise ever have a franchise PG?