Thursday, June 10, 2010

2010 NBA Draft: Collegiate Shooting Guard Prospects

Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft grades


1. Evan Turner
2. Avery Bradley
3. Willie Warren
4. Jordan Crawford
-----1st ROUND-----
5. Lance Stephenson
6. Manny Harris
7. Terrico White
8. Sylven Landesberg
9. Jon Scheyer
10. Dominique Jones
-----2nd ROUND-----

Evan Turner looks more James Harden than Brandon Roy to me but he'll obviously be something of a different (and, one hopes, more efficient) player when he doesn't have the ball in his hands for the majority of every possession.

Avery Bradley is not dissimilar to Jrue Holiday, who I was quite high on last season. Because he can't play point guard (offensively) Bradley's not as good a prospect as Holiday but he can be expected to guard both backcourt positions well and knock down open jumpers. Bradley struggled to score inside the arc and to get to the free throw line at Texas. I doubt he's a future star but he could be a very valuable role player for many years.

Willie Warren could be a steal at the end of the first round or he could shoot himself out the league in three years. He can score and isn't terribly inefficient despite his terrible shot selection. I have a rather low opinion of Jeff Capel so I'm optimistic with regard to Warren's ability to respond positively to good coaching.

If Jordan Crawford really is available early in the second-round, he'd be a tremendous value. He scored at a higher rate last season than any other shooting guard in this draft and he and Andy Rautins are the only shooting guards (in this draft) to make more than half of their two-point attempts and over 37% of their three-point attempts last season. Factor in Crawford's age, athleticism, and his acceptable passing and ball-handling and you've got a reasonable NBA prospect.

Crawford is probably the last reasonable prospect available at this position. Lance Stephenson, Manny Harris, Terrico White, and Sylven Landesberg have age on their side and little else. Stephenson struggled to score at Cincinnati. He's 68th (out of 93) in the spreadsheet in scoring rate, made 22% of his three-pointers, and 66% of his free throws. I fail to see a role he can fill for an NBA team at this point. Harris is talented, just not as much as he appears to think he is. Displaying humility and discretion could allow him to carve out a role as a scorer off the bench. White is listed as a point guard by some but I suspect it's just not possible to average fewer assists (per on court possession) than Brian Zoubek in college one season then play point guard in the NBA the next. He'll have to focus on defense to make a roster. Landesberg is a less-promising Manny Harris, a slasher who made just 39 three-pointers in two collegiate seasons.

Jon Scheyer will try to bring his undersized-power forward-in-a-guard's-body game to the NBA. It probably won't work out but I can't deny I'm curious.

Dominique Jones scored a ton of points at South Florida but the inefficiency with which he did so speaks to 1) the lack of talent around him and 2) his limitations as a shooter. He was active on the glass and blocked a decent number of shots for a guard in college. If he can lean more heavily on those skills, he could find work as a fifth guard.

1. John Wall
2. Evan Turner

3. Avery Bradley
4. Eric Bledsoe
5. Elliot Williams
6. Willie Warren
7. Jordan Crawford
-----1st ROUND-----
8. Lance Stephenson
9. Mikhail Torrance
10. Manny Harris
11. Jerome Randle
12. Greivis Vasquez
13. Ben Uzoh
14. Terrico White
15. Sylven Landesberg
16. Jon Scheyer
17. Dominique Jones
18. Sherron Collins
19. Scottie Reynolds
20. Devan Downey
-----2nd ROUND-----


Keith Box said...

I'm curious where you got your numbers. The reason I'm wondering is because, based on other sources, I have seen Dominique Jones rated as one of the more efficient scorers. Looking at draftexpress's statistical breakdown of the shooting guards, Dominique Jones rated #1 among shooting guards with a 0.976 PPP and he also has a 46.5% scoring ratio. He is one of the best penetrating guards in the draft, and he gets fouled on 11% of his shots. He was third among the shooting guards as a finisher with a 1.22 PPP on shots at the rim, and 20% of his possessions come on plays in transition.

Based on this analysis, the one area where Dominique isn't that efficient is as a jump shooter. Maybe that is what you were meaning when you mentioned him as being an inefficient scorer.

I think when you combine his ability to finish in the lane and score with his tremendous wingspan for the position, you have a very intriguing player who could contribute off the bench both offensively and defensively.

Bret LaGree said...

Keith --

You're right in assuming I was talking about his jump shot, sorry for not being more clear initially. My concern about Jones is that he always had the ball in his hands at USF and whether or not he'll able to great good looks for himself when he's got the ball in his hands less often.

In addition to the generic adjustment from college to the NBA that all players deal with, I think it's especially difficult to learn to play off the ball for guys who have always been lead guards. It certainly was for Acie Law IV.

Keith Box said...

True. I think that's one of the questions surrounding Jordan Crawford in this draft. He's been the focal point of the Xavier offense, and many question how he will adapt to being more of a role player in the NBA. In the A10 tourny, there were signs that when he doesn't have the ball in his hands, he really doesn't know what to do. Also, with a guy as athletic as Jordan is, I would like to see him get to the free throw line at a higher rate.

In looking at the draft prospects for the Hawks, I think I have to agree with David Pendergraft when he stated that the chances of the Hawks getting someone that will contribute immediately at this pick are low. It seems like everyone that may be available needs developmental time, and the guys who can shoot play no defense while the guys who can defend don't shoot the ball well.

I've got a hypothesis on getting better defensive play. My hypothesis is that wingspan and athleticism has more of an impact on defense than true size. I feel the Hawks, to improve their perimeter defense, need to pay attention to the player's wingspan. Now, I don't think it should be the sole thing they look at, but I do think it is something that has to be considered. Look at Rajon Rondo, the best defensive point guard in the game right now. He's only 6'1", but his 6'9" wingspan allows him to play off his man while still be able to play the passing lanes. Those long arms also help him change shot angles when he is guarding his man.