Via Arthur Triche's Twitter feed, the Atlanta Hawks confirm they've bought out and signed Pape Sy: Hawks sign second round pick Pape Sy to a contract this morning, he will wear #19.
As of this writing, there is no official press release stating the terms of the deal are undisclosed.UPDATE (2:29pm): Atlanta Hawks Executive Vice President and General Manager Rick Sund has announced this afternoon that the team has signed guard/forward Pape Sy to a contract. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not released.
“Our European scout (Loize Milosavljevic) did a great job in recommending Pape to us and once he participated in our pre-draft workouts, our scouts and coaches were very impressed with his abilities,” said Sund. “Although he was hampered by an Achilles injury during summer league workouts, we were encouraged with his ability, athleticism and competitiveness.”
“He is a talented 6-7 backcourt player who can play multiple positions,” said Assistant General Manager Dave Pendergraft, who worked throughout the process to get Sy here in time for training camp. “Sy’s an interesting prospect who is determined to play in the NBA.”
(HT: Michael Cunningham)
I chose not to write about this report about the Atlanta Hawks negotiating to buy out the final year of Pape Sy's contract with Le Havre that appeared over the weekend due to my own ignorance of the source, the limitations of Google translator, and a previous piece I'd read there about Sy which opened with a factual error obvious even given my limited French.Michael Cunningham's latest blog post gives credence to the report though it's still probably unlikely to occur: Back when the Hawks drafted Pape Sy and brought him to Summer League, assistant GM Dave Pendergraft said there was “no chance” the team would buy out Sy’s contract with Le Havre of the top French League. Over the weekend Pendergraft upgraded that to a “slight chance” Sy will join the Hawks this fall.
On the one hand, Sy appears a long shot to succeed in the NBA. On the other hand, he would presumably be brought over to defend on the wing* which could shore up a real weakness of the team and scouring the benches of the French league for players exhibits a level of creativity rarely associated with the franchise's player personnel decisions.
*Despite my overall reservations regarding Sy given his age, statistical record, and limited playing time in Summer League, I've no real knowledge of his aptitude with regard to this particular skill and no reason to believe he couldn't clear the admittedly low bar set by Mario West.
Ball in Europe has a Pape Sy highlight reel and also reveals that he played the tenth-most minutes on France's ninth-place team in the U20 European Championships.EuropeanProspects.com has more video and also claims Sy was turned down in his attempt to take part in the Adidas Eurocamp. Approximately 50 players participated.If Pape Sy can play NBA basketball this will go down as one of the great scouting triumphs of all time.
I first found his statistical profile here. He's listed as 190 cm. That's 74.8 inches, or just under 6' 3".I've since discovered the STB Le Havre website. He's listed as 1.95 m. That's 76.77 inches, or 6' 4.75".Time to stop worrying about his poor rebounding numbers.
Rick Sund on Jordan Crawford: "We love shooters."
and"It will be hard for him to come to a team that won 53 games and get minutes. But he's talented enough where if we get injuries, he's a quality player who can do some scoring."
Translation: Don't actually want to play him but if we have to...meh.Next up, The Sweet Comfort of Veterans. Sund: "I think we need more veterans. We are one of the youngest teams in the league still. I think we need to fill out the rest of the roster with veterans."
Otherwise, Mike Bibby might get lonely.Peachtree Hoops says the Hawks chose cash over winning: Euphoria swept the Hawks fandom as we quickly added up that the Hawks could address both a small and a big with the two picks. Sure enough, when #27 came up, Xavier's Jordan Crawford was the pick.
Crawford, who can be compared to Jamal Crawford and Ben Gordon, was a good value there, and it allowed the Hawks to begin to focus on a big man with their next pick. Alabi, Whiteside, and Orton were all still available just before the Hawks were set to pick at #31. Then Orton came off the board, leaving the Hawks with two big men to choose from, as well as Varnado.
This was it. We were going to be one of those teams who played the draft with precision and skill, picking up a couple of players who can help the team and improve the overall depth. No more Jason Collins type player, even if it were a project big man coming into the fold. It was an odd feeling of "we're doing it, we're that team this year". Odd because draft night has been historically a collective stomach punch for Hawks fans over the years.
So the 31st pick seemed like it took forever to be announced. We just knew something sweet was coming. We were going to pull one over on the league, get a scorer and a shot blocking big man by trading back. This was going to be sweet. Folks even started to wonder what we could get at #53, daring to dream about getting (3) guys who could help even this season.
Something became amiss when the pick was announced, and it was Tibor Pleiss, the German center. Then, ESPN announced the worst: Not only was this pick not going to be a Hawk, rather, it would be going to the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Hawks weren't even going to take a player for the pick.
Tom Ziller, FanHouse: The Hawks came in with the No. 24 pick, and used it to trade down to pick Jordan Crawford and some cash. They could have just taken Crawford at 24 and gotten away with it, so good on GM Rick Sund for working to maximize the asset. In the second round, Atlanta took mysterious Senegalese project Pape Sy. The team didn't address more immediate frontcourt depth issues, but Crawford's a fine pull given what the team had to work with. Final Grade: B+.
If my team just drafted DeMarcus Cousins and Hassan Whiteside, everybody would get an A.Chad Ford (Insider): The Hawks had a lot of success last year with a fellow named Crawford. Jamal Crawford won sixth man of the year as a volume scorer who often lit up opposing defenses. His namesake, Jordan Crawford, can do the same. He has deep range, will attack the basket and is always hunting for his shot. With Jamal in the last year of his contract, Jordan looks like he could be a nice replacement down the road.
As for Sy, let's just say that even by the low standards that we have for international "stash" picks, this one caught us by surprise. Sy is a point forward with skills, but this pick felt like a reach -- even at No. 53. Grade: B
It says something about the profound lack of confidence Hawks fans have about the organization that acquiring a legitimate prospect with the 27th pick fails to convince. Jordan Crawford does two things this organization has long valued (shoot and score) and could have an immediate role if Joe Johnson leaves via free agency. The resources wasted in acquiring Crawford reminds one, on a much smaller scale, of the deal that brought Johnson to Atlanta in a first place, a deal in which sound player evaluation was undermined, at least in terms of building a championship-quality team, by the cost of the acquisition.Both deals also demonstrate the team's disinclination to build through the draft* or develop the talent** they do draft. As with the Larry Drew hiring, it will take time and perspective to adequately assess these as basketball decisions but it's immediately apparent that, as financial decisions, they're intended to limit short-term costs. By drafting Crawford at 27 instead of 24, Hawks ownership will save $306,400 over the next three years (should the team pick up Crawford's first option), and, rather than investing the gain of the 31st pick to immediately address either of the team's long-standing and glaring weaknesses (perimeter defense, defensive rebounding), they sold the pick for approximately $3 million before again, at the 53rd pick, declining to add a possible contributor for 2010-11 in favor of a 22-year-old wing (though the Hawks seem to think he's a power forward or center), Pape Sy, who played 14 minutes a game for the 13th-best (out of 16) team in the French League.*13-win teams probably shouldn't be trading two first-round picks; teams with weak benches probably shouldn't treat the top of the second-round as an ATM.**The Hawks had no idea that including Boris Diaw in the Joe Johnson deal meant including a league-average starter; drafting Crawford puts a serious damper on any hope of Sergiy Gladyr contributing in the near future.The Hawks have concluded a head coaching search and the draft and the only certainty is that ownership turned a profit.
Some key Jordan Crawford collegiate stats...
| Crawford | Pts/100 | 2PTFG% | 3PTFG% | 3PTA/FGA | TS% | FT Rate |
| FR | 24.1 | 47.8 | 36.6 | 0.34 | 53.8 | 19.3 |
| SO | 37.9 | 50.1 | 39.1 | 0.36 | 56.9 | 21.1 |
| Career | 32.6 | 49.4 | 38.4 | 0.35 | 56.0 | 20.6 |
| Crawford | A/100 | TO/100 | BS/100 | S/100 | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 5.7 | 4.8 | 0.50 | 2.31 | 5.6 | 9.7 |
| SO | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.37 | 2.48 | 3.4 | 12.0 |
| Career | 5.5 | 4.6 | 0.42 | 2.42 | 4.3 | 11.2 |
WHEN: 7pm (Preview) 7:30pm (Live Draft Action)WHERE: ESPN, ESPN3CHAT: Daily Dime Live, Hardwood Paroxysm,
Basketball ProspectusFURTHER DISCUSSION OF THE HOME TEAM: Peachtree HoopsSIMILARITY SCORES FOR PROSPECTIVE DRAFT PICKSINSTANT REACTION TO THE NEW ORLEANS HORNETS OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER DRAFTING TRADING FOR COLE ALDRICH: Good-to-great (and ridiculously underrated) decision.INSTANT REACTION TO THE 27TH PICK: As of this writing, it appears the Hawks traded down to take Jordan Crawford rather than Damion James, Hassan Whiteside, Solomon Alabi, or Daniel Orton in order to gain the opportunity to sell the 31st pick to Oklahoma City. It's not a hugely encouraging start to the off-season. This season, shooting guard may be to the depth chart what center was last season. The Hawks are three deep at the 2 without either Joe Johnson or Josh Childress yet signed to an NBA team.INSTANT REACTION TO THE 53RD PICK: Pape Sy played 425 minutes over 30 games for Le Havre. He averaged 5 points a game, made 54% of his two-point attempts, 12-29 three-point attempts, and 71% of his free throws. He grabbed a rebound every eight minutes (and an offensive rebound just every 42 minutes).
He's already 22 years old and should not be expected to provide anything other than a cost of $0 for ownership.Much can be forgiven if Brian Zoubek, Wayne Chism, Marqus Blakely, and Marquis Gilstrap are on the summer league roster.Consider this an open thread for any stray thoughts (Hawks-related or not) that must be shared before, during, or after the draft.
Larry Sanders, Forward, VCUAs has been disclaimed across the network, we've been wearing our predictive rather than our preferential hats during this project so I've received a small estimation of what Rick Sund and company will experience Thursday night. The Hawks have little control over their draft fate. They're unlikely to get the player they want and will be hoping just to get a player they want. Picking 24th, the Hawks figure to select whichever of Sanders, Damion James, Daniel Orton, Solomon Alabi, or Kevin Seraphin falls* to them. In this exercise it was Sanders, a development which should please both the team and its fans were reality to replicate it.From my draft preview: Larry Sanders isn't much different than Ed Davis and his lower ranking here could be down to an unfair level of competition bias. Sanders scored more than Davis but was less efficient, both from the field and the line. That Sanders scored more without much of a post game can be judged either impressive or concerning for his development. He can finish and should be a serviceable backup at the 4 as a rookie, could provide good minutes off the bench as a backup center in smaller lineups, and is certain to inspire Hank Kingsley references wherever he goes.
Sanders blocked 7.4 shots per 100 on-court possessions in three years at VCU and his lowest rebound rates (11.3/23.9) came in his freshman season. Measuring 6' 10.5" (with shoes) and possessing a 7' 5.75" wingspan, contributions in those three areas should be considered givens from Sanders in the NBA.| Larry Sanders | BS/100 | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 11.6 | 11.1 | 24.9 |
| SO | 6.5 | 13.2 | 24.5 |
| JR | 5.9 | 12.9 | 23.9 |
| Career | 7.4 | 12.6 | 24.5 |
Though he's still, as an offensive player, mostly a finisher, his scoring rate and shooting percentages (both from the field and the line) increased (as did his role in the offense) in his second and third seasons at VCU. After earning just 17 assists in 1435 combined minutes over his Freshman and Sophomore seasons, Sanders earned 34 assists in 941 minutes in his Junior season, further providing some reason for optimism (beyond his age: 21) regarding his potential offensive development.| Larry Sanders | Pts/100 | TS% | 2PTFG% | FT% | %Poss | A/100 |
| FR | 19.1 | 50.7 | 50.4 | 45.6 | 18.1 | 0.5 |
| SO | 27.0 | 52.9 | 51.0 | 55.8 | 25.3 | 0.9 |
| JR | 33.2 | 57.1 | 54.7 | 64.1 | 26.2 | 2.2 |
| Career | 27.8 | 54.5 | 52.6 | 57.7 | 24.1 | 1.4 |
Even if Sanders fails to develop offensively his low-turnover, high offensive rebound rate attributes figure to mesh nicely with the Hawks' established offensive identity. His defensive rebounding, shot blocking, and general athleticism could aid an effort to push the tempo should words become actions in that regard this season.*If all those guys (Sanders included) are taken before the Hawks pick, then Gani Lawal, Craig Brackins, Stanley Robinson, Quincy Pondexter, Jordan Crawford, Eliot Williams, Willie Warren, and Dominique Jones likely enter the picture.
Two-thirds of the first round is complete. The 21st pick will be up at 8am EDT at DailyThunder.com. Come back here at halftime of USA-Algeria (11am EDT) for the reveal of the mock Hawks' pick.1. Washington Wizards -- John Wall (Kyle Weidie, Truth About It)2. Philadelphia 76ers -- Evan Turner (Carey Smith, Philadunkia)3. New Jersey Nets -- Derrick Favors (Sebastian Pruiti, Nets Are Scorching)4. Minnesota Timberwolves -- Wesley Johnson (Zach Harper, A Wolf Among Wolves)5. Sacramento Kings -- DeMarcus Cousins (Zach Harper, Cowbell Kingdom)
6. Golden State Warriors -- Greg Monroe (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)
7. Detroit Pistons -- Ekpe Udoh (Dan Feldman, PistonPowered)
8. Los Angeles Clippers -- Al-Farouq Aminu (D.J. Foster, ClipperBlog)
9. Utah Jazz -- Xavier Henry (Spencer Hall, Salt City Hoops)
10. Indiana Pacers -- Paul George (Tim Donahue, Eight Points, Nine Seconds)
11. New Orleans Hornets -- Cole Aldrich (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247)
12. Memphis Grizzlies -- Ed Davis (Chip Crain, 3 Shades of Blue)
13. Toronto Raptors -- Avery Bradley (Zarar Siddiqi, Raptors Republic)
14. Houston Rockets -- Patrick Patterson (Matt Moore, Hardwood Paroxysm)
15. Milwaukee Bucks -- Gordon Hayward (Jeremy Schmidt, Bucksketball.com)
16. Minnesota Timberwolves -- Hassan Whiteside (Zach Harper, A Wolf Among Wolves)
17. Chicago Bulls -- Luke Babbitt (Matt Moore, Hardwood Paroxysm)
18. Miami Heat -- Eric Bledsoe (Surya Fernandez, Hot Hot Hoops)
19. Boston Celtics -- James Anderson (Matt Moore, Hardwood Paroxysm)
20. San Antonio Spurs -- Damion James (Tim Varner, 48 Minutes of Hell)
21. Oklahoma City Thunder -- TBA (Royce Young, DailyThunder.com)
22. Portland TrailBlazers -- TBA (Ezra Ace Caraeff, The Portland Roundball Society)
23. Minnesota Timberwolves -- TBA (Zach Harper, A Wolf Among Wolves)
24. Atlanta Hawks -- TBA (Bret LaGree, Hoopinion)
25. Memphis Grizzlies -- TBA (Chip Crain, 3 Shades of Blue)
26. Oklahoma City Thunder -- TBA (Royce Young, DailyThunder.com)
27. New Jersey Nets -- TBA (Sebastian Pruiti, Nets Are Scorching)
28. Memphis Grizzlies -- TBA (Chip Crain, 3 Shades of Blue)
29. Orlando Magic --TBA (Eddy Rivera, Magic Basketball)
30. Washington Wizards -- TBA (Kyle Weidie, Truth About It)
Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft grades
CENTER1. DeMarcus Cousins2. Cole Aldrich3. Greg Monroe-----LOTTERY-----4. Hassan Whiteside5. Daniel Orton6. Solomon Alabi7. Jarvis Varnado-----1st ROUND-----8. Derrick Caracter9. Brian Zoubek10. Jerome Jordan11. Omar Samhan-----2nd ROUND-----DeMarcus Cousins combines the best qualities of DeJuan Blair (rebounding) and Mareesse Speights (high-volume, efficient scoring) and augments those attributes with ideal size for his position. Which explains why he spent one rather than two seasons in college. Evaluating these players from a distance prevents me from having a firm handle on any player's off-the-court issues. From what I've witnessed, Cousins, though he may well be immature (which itself may be a function of age as much as personality type), did not display, at Kentucky, immaturity to the degree that Michael Beasley, to take a recent example, did at Kansas State. There could be compelling reasons to take Derrick Favors or Evan Turner ahead of Cousins but those reasons are not clear from this vantage point.Because people tend to conflate shot blocking and rebounding, a player who blocks a lot of shots and rebounds extremely well might not get full credit for how valuable and rare the combination is. I am not neutral on Cole Aldrich. He's been the best defensive player in college basketball each of the last two years. His size, reach, strength, movement, and positioning sense (note that his steal rate is superior to the other great shot blockers in this draft class) make him NBA-ready today. The concerns about his offensive game are legitimate. His footwork regressed in his Junior season while he also shot worse from the mid-range and the free throw line. Among centers in this draft class, though, only Alabi, Samhan, Jordan, and Andrew Ogilvy shot a higher percentage at the line last season than Aldrich. Though it's unlikely to be relevant to his professional career, he did improve greatly at both recognizing and passing out of double teams. He's an excellent (though sub-Kevin Love) outlet passer as well. The greatest concern with Aldrich should be his health. He suffered a stress reaction in his foot late in his Sophomore season and labored with bronchitis for the first half of his Junior season. If either should be a potentially chronic condition, he's clearly a lesser prospect than Greg Monroe.It says much for my admiration of Cousins and Aldrich that I rank them ahead of the wonderful Greg Monroe. There's nothing not to like about Monroe's game as is: his defensive rebound rate compares favorably to both Cousins and Aldrich, he averaged just under 30 points and 7 assists per 100 on-court possessions (similar rates* to Sherron Collins), blocked shots and stole the ball at good rates. There's even good reason to believe that his jump shot can improve and/or he'll grab more offensive rebounds if he spends more time in the low-post. I wouldn't blame anyone for rating Monroe ahead of Aldrich.*Monroe and Collins probably have similar weights as well.Hassan Whiteside is a year older than Greg Monroe and just seven-and-a-half months younger than Cole Aldrich so the relatively raw nature of his game does not come with the benefit of relative youth. Furthermore, he fattened up the stat sheet by virtue of Marshall playing three regular season games against non-Division 1 opposition. Take away the the 19 blocks and 27 rebounds he notched in just 66 minutes in those games and he's still a super shot-blocking and rebounding prospect. Take away the 21-31 shooting from the field and 3 of his 10 assists on the season, and his offensive game is even more clearly a work in progress. A worthy risk and a team willing to be patient with him could reap ample rewards.Scouts will earn their paychecks evaluating Daniel Orton. The rest of us have just 502 college minutes with which to attempt to form an opinion about him. There's no shame in playing behind Cousins and Patrick Patterson but Orton was not especially productive in the minutes he received, posting unimpressive scoring (both volume and efficiency) and defensive rebounding numbers. His solid offensive rebound rate, plus above average block and steal rates, suggest he has the physical gifts to play center but he may never develop beyond serviceable at the position. Youth and size are his greatest attributes at this point. Jarvis Varnado and Solomon Alabi are roughly equal prospects in value. Preference will likely be based on a particular team's needs. Varnado has a slightly more developed post game and is very adept at defending the basket area. Alabi can defend in space as well as in the post (though the time spent defending away from the basket is evident in his lower defensive rebounding rate) and is more comfortable with the ball in his hands in the mid- to high-post though that may be damning with faint praise. Both should be immediate contributors.Derrick Caracter could be a second-round steal. He's always been a nice offensive player in the post but further impressed last season as part of an excellent UTEP defense. Size (both vertical and horizontal), conditioning, and effort are legitimate concerns but his skill level compares favorably to other second-round options.It's only a slight exaggeration to claim (as I frequently do) that Duke won the National Championship because Mike Krzyzewski finally came to terms with Brian Zoubek's limitations and left him on the court to produce rather than wasting precious post minutes on the limited and unproductive likes of Lance Thomas and David McClure. As an NBA prospect, Zoubek's upside is a better-rebounding Aaron Gray or Nazr Mohammed (the later years) but he should find employment as a situational backup center.Jerome Jordan's NBA potential can be summed up in the phrase "lacks Brian Zoubek's athleticism." Only Jordan, Omar Samhan and Art Parakhouski failed to average even one steal per 100 on-court possessions. Jordan combined that achievement with an offensive rebound rate below 10%. His size and productive scoring record at Tulsa should earn him a look or two.Jonny Flynn's rookie season may have killed the import of charm in teams' draft evaluations and that could be the difference between Omar Samhan getting drafted late in the second-round or not. Samhan was really productive at St. Mary's and it wouldn't be an unreasonable use of resources to acquire him and see how he'd play if he were in shape. DRAFT BOARD (Collegiate Players)
1. John Wall
2. DeMarcus Cousins
3. Derrick Favors
4. Evan Turner
5. Cole Aldrich
6. Greg Monroe
7. Wesley Johnson
-----LOTTERY-----
8. Ed Davis
9. Ekpe Udoh
10. Hassan Whiteside
11. Daniel Orton
12. Paul George
13. Damion James
14. Xavier Henry
15. Patrick Patterson
16. Avery Bradley
17. James Anderson
18. Al-Farouq Aminu
19. Luke Babbitt
20. Larry Sanders
21. Solomon Alabi 22. Jarvis Varnado
23. Eric Bledsoe
24. Elliot Williams
25. Craig Brackins
26. Willie Warren
27. Jordan Crawford
28. Quincy Pondexter
-----1st ROUND-----
29. Gordon Hayward
30. Gani Lawal
31. Derrick Caracter
32. Devin Ebanks
33. Lazar Hayward
34. Lance Stephenson
35. Marqus Blakely
36. Trevor Booker
37. Wayne Chism
38. Mikhail Torrance
39. Stanley Robinson
40. Brian Zoubek
41. Manny Harris 42. Jerome Randle
43. Greivis Vasquez
44. Ben Uzoh
45. Luke Harangody
46. Terrico White
47. Sylven Landesberg
48. Jon Scheyer
49. Dominique Jones
50. Sherron Collins
51. Marquis Gilstrap
52. Samardo Samuels
53. Dwayne Collins
54. Scottie Reynolds
55. Charles Garcia
56. Tiny Gallon
57. Jerome Jordan
58. Omar Samhan
59. Devan Downey
-----2nd ROUND-----
Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft grades
POWER FORWARD1. Derrick Favors-----LOTTERY-----2. Ed Davis3. Ekpe Udoh4. Patrick Patterson5. Larry Sanders6. Craig Brackins-----1st ROUND-----7. Gani Lawal8. Trevor Booker9. Wayne Chism10. Stanley Robinson11. Luke Harangody12. Samardo Samuels13. Dwayne Collins14. Charles Garcia15. Tiny Gallon-----2nd ROUND-----It's not probable but I wouldn't be shocked if Derrick Favors turned out to be the best player in this draft. He wasn't a hugely productive scorer in his lone season at Georgia Tech but he was pretty efficient despite playing alongside the similar Gani Lawal and one of the worst collections of guards I can remember seeing on a team that made the NCAA Tournament. As with John Wall, turnovers were his biggest weakness as a freshman and that's the least worrisome weakness a young player can have.As with Favors, there's some concern as to why the younger, more talented Ed Davis took a smaller offensive role than his older teammate, in this case Deon Thompson. It's a greater concern with Davis because his three years older than Favors and Davis played for a coach whose offense is centered around getting high quality shots for big men so it was more likely down to player passivity or heretofore unrecognized limitations than poor coaching. Davis lacks inspiring upside but he's a solid bet to rebound, blocks shots, and finish the opportunities others create for him around the basket.Ekpe Udoh was a sleeper before Baylor's NCAA Tournament run but he's fairly overrated at this point as teams and fans appear to hope for the opportunity to take a player with similar skills to Cole Aldrich but smaller, older, and less productive. Udoh's, at worst, the third best defensive big man in the draft but his offensive game is very limited.In 2009-10 Patrick Patterson didn't get anywhere near the touches he received the previous season but even as the volume of his production shrank he remained an efficient offensive player. Worrisome was the hit his rebound rate took in his Junior season. Playing alongside DeMarcus Cousins isn't a convincing excuse. One need only look at Favors and Lawal to see that teammates are fully capable of both posting 12%/20% rebound rates. The cautionary tale (and this is only in respect to rebounding, Patterson's a far better offensive player) here is Spencer Hawes who had his low collegiate rebounding rates explained away by Jon Brockman's presence. Turned out that Hawes just wasn't a good rebounder. Patterson can succeed despite this weakness but it impacts his ranking.Larry Sanders isn't much different than Ed Davis and his lower ranking here could be down to an unfair level of competition bias. Sanders scored more than Davis but was less efficient, both from the field and the line. That Sanders scored more without much of a post game can be judged either impressive or concerning for his development. He can finish and should be a serviceable backup at the 4 as a rookie, could provide good minutes off the bench as a backup center in smaller lineups, and is certain to inspire Hank Kingsley references wherever he goes.Craig Brackins was considered a great prospect this time last year. He returned to Iowa State and had a fairly similar season, being less productive but a little more efficient. The result: a drop of about 30 places on everybody's draft board. He was probably too high last year and sits too low this year. He's a finesse power forward who attacks the defensive glass and has never played with a good guard. An improved jump shot would make him highly useful in pick-and-pop situations. Think Ryan Anderson with less range.Gani Lawal has size and strength going for him. If he goes to a good team, they'll likely make use of those attributes without asking him to develop his offensive game. If he goes to a bad team, they may give up on him ever developing an offensive game. He's raw, but as a rebounding aficionado I like what he can do.Neither Trevor Booker nor Wayne Chism were quite as productive as seniors as DeMarre Carroll was the previous season and Carroll's struggles as a rookie in Memphis don't figure to make NBA teams eager to get in on high-energy, 3/4 tweeners from pressing programs. Booker and Chism are both bigger than Carroll, blocked more shots, and committed more turnovers so if you squint you can see more upside. Chism might could develop into a stretch four.Stanley Robinson took on a bigger offensive role last season but that said more about UConn's limited options than that Robinson took a major step forward. He did improve, though, most encouragingly by making 27-79 three-pointers. He doesn't rebound well enough to project as a full-time power forward but it's a open question as to whether or not he can defend in space on the wing. I'm surprised more teams haven't tried to get production out of the plentiful Louis Amundson types who populate the basketball world. Robinson should hope that changes.Luke Harangody was a poor-man's Nick Fazekas in college. One might think the three- or four-inch height advantage Fazekas had would have worked in his favor, but playing at Notre Dame will probably give Harangody a better chance to prove himself in the NBA though he's no more (and quite possibly less) athletic than Fazekas. The dividing line for the necessary athleticism to succeed as an undersized 4 in the NBA figures to be drawn somewhere between Harangody and the similarly shaped Craig Smith.Samardo Samuels posted DR% of 10.1 and 14.7 in his two seasons at Louisville which suggests that his lack of athleticism prevents him from rebounding in more than one spot even at the college level. He is strong and can use that strength to get good position on the block and in anticipation of offensive rebounds but finishing could be a problem against NBA post players.Solid on the glass and in the paint, it remains to be seen if Dwayne Collins can get out on the floor as necessitated by the modern definition of NBA power forwards. If he can't, he'll have to leverage his strength into a vagabond career as a fifth big man specializing in aggressive, annoying post defense.Once one adjusts for pace (Seattle averaged almost 80 possessions per game last season, 13 more than an average college team), Charles Garcia's production appears far less impressive. Per on-court possession, the only real comp he has in terms of blocks and steals is Luke Harangody, only Dwayne Collins and Tiny Gallon come within 75% of his turnover rate, his offensive rebound rate is below average (though his defensive rebound rate is strong), and he's a below average shooter inside the arc, outside the arc, and from the free throw line. A year in the D-League is likely his best case scenario.Tiny Gallon is a) not tiny at all and b) probably not missing much by turning his basketball development over to someone other than Jeff Capel. Other than tracking down missed shots, he has no idea what he's doing: turnover-prone, jump shot-enamored, and defensively indifferent. If a team thinks they can get him in shape, he's a decent risk of a second-round pick but it will be a couple of years before he should be expected to fulfill his modest promise.DRAFT BOARD (Guards,Wings, and Power Forwards)
1. John Wall
2. Derrick Favors
3. Evan Turner
4. Wesley Johnson
-----LOTTERY-----
5. Ed Davis
6. Ekpe Udoh
7. Paul George
8. Damion James
9. Xavier Henry
10. Patrick Patterson
11. Avery Bradley
12. James Anderson
13. Al-Farouq Aminu
14. Luke Babbitt
15. Larry Sanders
16. Eric Bledsoe
17. Elliot Williams
18. Craig Brackins
19. Willie Warren
20. Jordan Crawford
21. Quincy Pondexter
-----1st ROUND-----
22. Gordon Hayward
23. Gani Lawal
24. Devin Ebanks
25. Lazar Hayward
26. Lance Stephenson
27. Marqus Blakely
28. Trevor Booker
29. Wayne Chism
30. Mikhail Torrance
31. Stanley Robinson
32. Manny Harris33. Jerome Randle
34. Greivis Vasquez
35. Ben Uzoh
36. Luke Harangody
37. Terrico White
38. Sylven Landesberg
39. Jon Scheyer
40. Dominique Jones
41. Sherron Collins
42. Marquis Gilstrap
43. Samardo Samuels
44. Dwayne Collins
45. Scottie Reynolds
46. Charles Garcia
47. Tiny Gallon
48. Devan Downey
-----2nd ROUND-----
Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft grades
SMALL FORWARD
1. Wesley Johnson
-----LOTTERY-----
2. Paul George
3. Damion James
4. Xavier Henry
5. James Anderson
6. Al-Farouq Aminu
7. Luke Babbitt
8. Quincy Pondexter
-----1st ROUND-----
9. Gordon Hayward
10. Devin Ebanks
11. Lazar Hayward
12. Marqus Blakely
13. Marquis Gilstrap
-----2nd ROUND-----
Wesley Johnson is a really nice player but in a well-rounded, complementary vein which puts him clearly behind Wall, Cousins, Turner, and Favors. I suspect Johnson will rely more on his jump shot in the NBA but his already acceptable defensive rebounding rate (18.3% last season) and excellent steal and block rates (3.1 and 2.8 per 100 possessions, respectively) could benefit from playing in a different defensive system.
Paul George has more upside than Damion James, Xavier Henry, and James Anderson but there's less certainty as to what percentage of George's production is down to skill and what's due to athleticism overwhelmingly superior to his collegiate competition. Which is to say that the NBA's not the WAC, but shooting and athletic ability are still a potent combination. I don't know if George would be better served going to a team that's patient with him or one that throws him into the fire but he appears the most likely candidate to make a (deserved) late charge up draft boards.
That Damion James spent his entire Junior season watching the far inferior AJ Abrams shoot the ever-loving hell out of the ball cost James money (he's always had first round talent) and is another mark against Rick Barnes. James can score inside and out and can rebound on both ends of the floor. He's unlikely to create offense for other players and is primitive defensively (again, the Barnes influence). James didn't always conduct himself in an admirable manner as Texas' season fell apart but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk that up to frustration rather than personal defect.
The difference between Damion James and Xavier Henry is that James can contribute immediately while Henry's game still needs to gestate. Like Cole Aldrich, Henry suffered from poor guard play at Kansas last season. Henry can certainly shoot but even having seen each of his games in college I have no strong opinion as to whether or not he can create his own shot. He might not know either. Then again, he's 19 and there's time for him to figure it out. Like many NBA small forwards who play that position in college and frequently match up against much smaller, quicker players, concerns about his defense and athleticism are overstated.
I prefer James Anderson to the somewhat similar scorers Quincy Pondexter and Luke Babbitt mostly by the virtue of the stronger competition he faced. Anderson can score against anyone, is a decent passer, and looks to have both the strength and athleticism to at least fake defense at both wing positions.
Al-Farouq Aminu will be drafted early due to his athleticism (2.7 blocks and steals per 100 possessions, 14.6% offensive rebound rate) and youth (19) rather than any belief that he's a good basketball player right now. Aminu's a better prospect than former teammate James Johnson (and was a better prospect than Johnson at this time last year, also) but figures to struggle in his first exposure to NBA basketball.
Luke Babbitt is the toughest player for me to evaluate in this draft. He was a terrifically productive (35 points per 100 on-court possessions) and efficient (62 TS%) scorer at Nevada but demonstrated none of the athleticism that he displayed at the combine. Babbitt posted a lower steal rate than any other small forward prospect in this draft, bests only Xavier Henry (among legitimate small forward prospects) in offensive rebound rate, and blocked just one-and-a-quarter shots per 100 on-court possessions. It's not impressive to throw one's hands up and say, "I don't know," but I don't know.
Quincy Pondexter is a younger and more athletic version of Sam Young. Both are likely to be career bench players but Pondexter possesses a slightly higher chance of taking on a starting role without inflicting damage to his team. He can knock down open shots, fill the lane in transition, and help on the offensive glass. Having played for Lorenzo Romar, any defensive talent Pondexter possesses remains latent.
Opinions of Gordon Hayward largely rest on what chance one gives him to maintain his high free throw rate in the NBA. If he can get points at the line, he should stick around the league for a long time (assuming his 37% career collegiate 3PTFG% is more indicative of his ability than his 29% mark from beyond the arc last season). If he can't get points at the line, he'll have to figure out a way to get by with what are, at this point, seriously secondary skills. Though he appears a heady player, no one's drafting Hayward for his passing, rebounding, or defensive skills.
Devin Ebanks can defend and rebound. Sometimes he passes well for his position. He should do so more often because sometimes he forgets he can't shoot. He was a remarkable 8-70 from beyond the college arc in two seasons at West Virginia. A good role player if accepts his limitations, a headache if he does not.
Lazar Hayward figures to be a decent, late second round consolation prize for a team that misses out on Pondexter at the end of the first round. He's a year older, a little bit bigger, and a better defensive player. Hayward played a supporting role at Marquette until his Senior season and could reasonably be expected to transition easily into spot duty at the end of a rotation. If the Hawks go big at 24, Hayward would be a fine use of the 53rd pick but backup to Marvin Williams is probably close to his upside. If Marqus Blakely makes an NBA roster it will probably be as an undersized (6-5, 219 but with a 7' 1" wingspan) power forward but it's not outside the realm of possibility that he possesses the athleticism to defend on the wing. 3.5 blocks and 4.5 steals per 100 on-court possessions is impressive regardless of position or level of competition. Factor in a collegiate assist rate that would compare favorably to the combo guards in this class and drafting Blakely would not be an especially cavalier use of a second round pick.
I'm giving Craig Brackins the benefit of the doubt for playing at Iowa State in a subsequent post and I thought it only fair to give similar credit to his teammate Marquis Gilstrap who put up numbers remarkably similar to those of Brackins' disappointing Junior season. Gilstrap doesn't have the 2008-09 season that boosts Brackins' standing but he could be a late bloomer who had his development slowed by injury.DRAFT BOARD (Guards and Wings)
1. John Wall
2. Evan Turner
3. Wesley Johnson
-----LOTTERY-----
4. Paul George
5. Damion James
6. Xavier Henry
7. Avery Bradley
8. James Anderson
9. Al-Farouq Aminu
10. Luke Babbitt
11. Eric Bledsoe
12. Elliot Williams
13. Willie Warren
14. Jordan Crawford
15. Quincy Pondexter
-----1st ROUND-----
16. Gordon Hayward
17. Devin Ebanks
18. Lazar Hayward
19. Lance Stephenson
20. Marqus Blakely
21. Mikhail Torrance
22. Manny Harris23. Jerome Randle
24. Greivis Vasquez
25. Ben Uzoh
26. Terrico White
27. Sylven Landesberg
28. Jon Scheyer
29. Dominique Jones
30. Sherron Collins
31. Marquis Gilstrap
32. Scottie Reynolds
33. Devan Downey
-----2nd ROUND-----
Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft grades
SHOOTING GUARD1. Evan Turner-----LOTTERY-----2. Avery Bradley3. Willie Warren4. Jordan Crawford-----1st ROUND-----5. Lance Stephenson6. Manny Harris7. Terrico White8. Sylven Landesberg9. Jon Scheyer10. Dominique Jones-----2nd ROUND-----Evan Turner looks more James Harden than Brandon Roy to me but he'll obviously be something of a different (and, one hopes, more efficient) player when he doesn't have the ball in his hands for the majority of every possession.
Avery Bradley is not dissimilar to Jrue Holiday, who I was quite high on last season. Because he can't play point guard (offensively) Bradley's not as good a prospect as Holiday but he can be expected to guard both backcourt positions well and knock down open jumpers. Bradley struggled to score inside the arc and to get to the free throw line at Texas. I doubt he's a future star but he could be a very valuable role player for many years.Willie Warren could be a steal at the end of the first round or he could shoot himself out the league in three years. He can score and isn't terribly inefficient despite his terrible shot selection. I have a rather low opinion of Jeff Capel so I'm optimistic with regard to Warren's ability to respond positively to good coaching.If Jordan Crawford really is available early in the second-round, he'd be a tremendous value. He scored at a higher rate last season than any other shooting guard in this draft and he and Andy Rautins are the only shooting guards (in this draft) to make more than half of their two-point attempts and over 37% of their three-point attempts last season. Factor in Crawford's age, athleticism, and his acceptable passing and ball-handling and you've got a reasonable NBA prospect.Crawford is probably the last reasonable prospect available at this position. Lance Stephenson, Manny Harris, Terrico White, and Sylven Landesberg have age on their side and little else. Stephenson struggled to score at Cincinnati. He's 68th (out of 93) in the spreadsheet in scoring rate, made 22% of his three-pointers, and 66% of his free throws. I fail to see a role he can fill for an NBA team at this point. Harris is talented, just not as much as he appears to think he is. Displaying humility and discretion could allow him to carve out a role as a scorer off the bench. White is listed as a point guard by some but I suspect it's just not possible to average fewer assists (per on court possession) than Brian Zoubek in college one season then play point guard in the NBA the next. He'll have to focus on defense to make a roster. Landesberg is a less-promising Manny Harris, a slasher who made just 39 three-pointers in two collegiate seasons.Jon Scheyer will try to bring his undersized-power forward-in-a-guard's-body game to the NBA. It probably won't work out but I can't deny I'm curious.Dominique Jones scored a ton of points at South Florida but the inefficiency with which he did so speaks to 1) the lack of talent around him and 2) his limitations as a shooter. He was active on the glass and blocked a decent number of shots for a guard in college. If he can lean more heavily on those skills, he could find work as a fifth guard.
DRAFT BOARD (Guards)
1. John Wall
2. Evan Turner-----LOTTERY-----3. Avery Bradley4. Eric Bledsoe5. Elliot Williams6. Willie Warren7. Jordan Crawford-----1st ROUND-----8. Lance Stephenson9. Mikhail Torrance10. Manny Harris11. Jerome Randle12. Greivis Vasquez13. Ben Uzoh14. Terrico White15. Sylven Landesberg16. Jon Scheyer17. Dominique Jones18. Sherron Collins19. Scottie Reynolds20. Devan Downey-----2nd ROUND-----
Disclosure: Previous draft analysis, both insightful and woeful: 2009 NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft, 2007 NBA Draft preview, 2007 NBA Draft analysis, 2006 NBA Draft preview, 2006 NBA Draft analysis/live blog, 2005 NBA Draft preview, 2005 NBA Draft gradesSee also: 2010 Collegiate Draft Prospects SpreadsheetPOINT GUARD1. John Wall-----LOTTERY-----2. Eric Bledsoe3. Elliot Williams-----1st ROUND-----4. Mikhail Torrance5. Jerome Randle6. Greivis Vasquez7. Ben Uzoh8. Sherron Collins9. Scottie Reynolds10. Devan Downey-----2nd ROUND-----John Wall is as good a prospect as everyone says, a no-brainer first pick. He only scratched the surface of his talents in his season at Kentucky. The best point at that level at the age of 18 he can still reasonably be expected to improve in any or all of the following areas: jump shooting, taking care of the ball, and defense. No one will be able to stay in front of him and it was his ability to finish and/or get to the foul line that most impressed last season.Elliot Williams would be a clear #2 were his health a certainty. He can score and he can shoot. His ball-handling is acceptable for a point guard and his size is acceptable for a shooting guard. I think this makes him less a risky tweener and more of a more efficient Rodney Stuckey. Assuming his knee is sound, of course.Eric Bledsoe will be drafted purely on promise. He simply wasn't a very good college player last season. One poor season as the third option (Had he been the fourth option by virtue of getting Patrick Patterson the ball more often, he'd likely rank higher in my estimation.) on a college team is not a good reason to write Bledsoe off but he's one of the riskiest (along with Aminu, Willie Warren, Luke Babbitt, and Gordon Hayward) likely first-round picks.From here on out we see several good reasons as to why Bledsoe turned pro after a poor season. Teams that didn't take advantage of last year's deep point guard class will be grasping at straws.
Mikhail Torrance appears to the best of this uninspiring lot. He was very productive for a poor Alabama team and his size gives him advantage over Randle, Collins, Reynolds, and Downey when projecting him as an offensive contributor though it's a fair question as to whether he'll be able to stay in front of point guards in the NBA.There's essentially no difference (beyond personal preference of the teams drafting) between the next five guards: Jerome Randle is arguably both the quickest and best shooter in this group but, like Sherron Collins, he's 23 and had comically low rebound rates last season. Greivis Vasquez, also 23, is a big true point guard who was able to score at a good clip against college competition but I have doubts about his athleticism in an NBA context. Ben Uzoh looks (and measures as) a sound defender at the point. He'll have to be because he lacks three-point range at this stage of his development. Collins, Scottie Reynolds, and Devan Downey are all fairly generic shoot-first college point guards. If Collins has an edge on the other two (and I'm not convinced he does) it's due to his athleticism and more demonstrable willingness to share the basketball. But we're talking about a guy that, if you squint, you can see Will Bynum. Maybe.
