Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Opening Night Game Thread: Indiana (0-0) @ Atlanta (0-0)

TIP-OFF: 7pm


RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Pacers


INDIANA INJURY REPORT: Mike Dunleavy, Travis Diener, and Tyler Hansbrough are out. Jeff Foster is questionable. Danny Granger is doubtful a game-time decision.


OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Eight Points Nine Seconds, Indy Cornrows

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.


Bronnt said...

The Basketball prospectus take on the Hawks makes yours seem extremely optimistic. I can't find anything about it that I like-SCHOENE thinks the Hawks are somehow going to improve in defensive efficiency, but apparently, a Mike Bibby regression is coming that will absolutely destroy the offense.

I can see a Bibby regression coming off of his career high in EFG%, but since a lot of his role is to serve a spot-up shooter, I still think his career averages are a basement for him. He shouldn't have to create his own shot more than once or twice a game.

The real concern isn't his offensive effectiveness, it's his ability to stay in front of his defender, and his health to stay on the floor.

Bret LaGree said...

I don't have my Basketball Prospectus in front of me at the moment, but the Marvin Williams SCHOENE projection is far lower than I expect/hope for. As one would expect, the projection system doesn't treat Williams' three-point shooting as a new skill so much as an aberration, which, in his NBA playing career it thus far is.

Figure a couple of wins for that, a couple of wins for presuming too much playing time for Joe Smith or Jason Collins and you've got most of the difference between SCHOENE and me.

Jason Walker said...

I think the only way that seriously dour prospectus occurs is if suddenly many teams had the talent and played defense as well as the Magic, Cavs, and Celtics.

Much like a (30) win total projection--not likely.

Jason Walker said...

I was speaking of the NBAPET projection, btw, not Bret's.

So there.

Bronnt said...

There does seem to be the inherent statistical assumption that most of the starting will miss time due to injuries, and the historical distribution of minutes assumes that Joe Smith and Jason Collins will inherit a lot of those frontcourt minutes without Zaza gaining any.

I have this team, rather optimistically, at 49 wins. That's leaning on the breakout potential of Horford, Smith, and Williams-I think any one of those three, or all collectively could add 3-4 wins based on their individual growth.

The perception is that while the Hawks stood still, the rest of the East got better, but I see a few teams I expect to get worse-namely the Pacers, Heat, and Bucks, while the Nets and Knicks are probably holding steady, with the Raptors and Wizards both serving as wildcards. Hawks are not a highly variable team at all-barring serious injury problems, they're in the 45-50 win range.

Bret LaGree said...

Back with the book...

They've got Marvin down from 4.4 actual WARP to 3.2 projected WARP with his 3PTA% dropping from 19 to 13.6 and his 3PTFG% going from 35.5 to 31.

Bibby's the big drop from 6.4 actual WARP to 2.5 projected. That and Crawford, Teague, and Evans are projected to be collectively below replacement level.

As Bronn intimated above, please let me confirm that, yes, I think that is all pessimistic.