Sekou Smith went to the Hawks' practice facility Monday to check out who has gained weight (Josh Smith, weighing in at a muscular 240, how gaining muscle will improve his jump shot is an unanswered question), lost weight (Tyronn Lue, down to 177), and who is going to training camp with little or no chance of making the roster.
There are some interesting guys participating, a couple of whom could be useful should they get to play in games that count. Obviously, Joe Johnson, Speedy Claxton, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia, Lorenzen Wright, Josh Childress, Tyronn Lue, Shelden Williams and Salim Stoudamire are making the team. Future Arkansas RimRocker Solomon Jones, probably will also. So the Hawks can keep up to four more guys, with useless duo Royal Ivey and Esteban Batista both already under contract.
Greek center Andreas Glyniadakis played reasonably well in the D-League last year (22.2 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.2 bspg, 53.5 fg%, 81.6 ft%). His size (7-1, 280) and Esteban Batista's ineptitude make him the most likely to stick.
Lionel Chalmers shot the ball horribly in limited minutes with the Clippers in 2005. His college career leads one to believe that he has the ability to do better than that. He played pretty well for Phoenix's summer league team and is (like so many others) undoubtedly a better point guard than Royal Ivey. The Hawks will probably find some dumb reason (like not wanting another small point guard) to keep Ivey over Chalmers.
Cedric Bozeman was once better point guard than Ivey, too. Injuries have severely limited Bozeman's athleticism and versatility to the point where he didn't even rate a draft bio (there were 120) on NBA.com this summer.
Shawnee Mission West product Matt Freije can shoot, or at least he could in college. His 57% true-shooting percentage at Vanderbilt didn't translate in his brief trial with the Hornets in 2005 where his TS% fell to 35.6. He'll never get to the line in the NBA as often as he did in college and he'll probably never rebound enough to survive a cold shooting week.
For reasons I don't understand, Sekou Smith is enthusiastic about Kaniel Dickens, a small forward with the game of a college power forward. I doubt there's room for him behind Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams.
Andre Brown is basically Shelden Williams if Shelden Williams didn't block shots or make free throws. Unlike Batista and Solomon Jones, the franchise has nothing invested in Brown and won't keep him around.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Hawks May Start Another Season Without a Decent Point Guard
Speedy Claxton broke a bone in his left hand and is out for 5-6 weeks.
Also, there are at least 15 freely available short men who would make better 3rd point guards than Royal Ivey.
Heal fast, Speedy.
The Hawks do have other options at the position. They have a veteran in backup point guard Tyronn Lue, one of the league's best pick-and-roll players. Third-year point guard Royal Ivey started 66 games last season and could also fill in.Billy Knight, if you're reading, I haven't had an NBA team to root for in over twenty years. I would like to become a Hawks fan. I cannot, however, become a Hawks fan if you continue to waste a collection of intriguing young wing players by employing Tyronn Lue as your point guard. His entire NBA career is built upon getting away with holding onto Allen Iverson's jersey as he ran around screens in the 2001 NBA Finals. I used to watch Ryan Robertson dominate Lue regularly in college. Lue's only skill is shooting the ball. He does that with far less effectiveness and panache than his teammate Salim Stoudamire.
Also, there are at least 15 freely available short men who would make better 3rd point guards than Royal Ivey.
Heal fast, Speedy.
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Transaction Roundup: September 11th
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics sign Kendrick Perkins to an incentive-laden, four-year contract. Perkins is young and injury-prone but he's an impact rebounder and shot blocker when he's on the court.
Jeff Clark at CelticsBlog calls it "a no-lose situation" for the team. I'll go one step further and say that both sides have minimized their risk while still creating for themselves a potentially advantageous deal. Perkins should share minutes with Theo Ratliff at the 5 this season.
Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte adds Argentinian forward Walter Herrmann for the 2006-07 season. Herrmann is 27 and shot the ball well from the international three-point line in the World Championships. hpanic7342 at APBRmetrics calculated Herrmann as having the 29th best PER in the World Championships, right behind his teammate Andres Nocioni.
Herrmann had 7 points, 4 rebounds, and one turnover in 18 minutes in an appearance for the Bobcats' Summer League team in Orlando. He will compete with Matt Carroll, Bernard Robinson Jr., and Alan Anderson for minutes backing up Gerald Wallace and Adam Morrison.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland officially takes the necessary step of re-signing Drew Gooden. At 3 years and $23 million, Gooden is a bargain assuming they don't give too many minutes to the Brazilian Ryan Bowen. I think Nikos Zisis and I are on the same page regarding what Varejao takes away from the game of basketball.
All credit to Cavs beat writer Brian Windhorst for honestly discussing in the blog entry linked above Varejao's tendencies for both flopping and taking cheap shots:
The Boston Celtics sign Kendrick Perkins to an incentive-laden, four-year contract. Perkins is young and injury-prone but he's an impact rebounder and shot blocker when he's on the court.
Jeff Clark at CelticsBlog calls it "a no-lose situation" for the team. I'll go one step further and say that both sides have minimized their risk while still creating for themselves a potentially advantageous deal. Perkins should share minutes with Theo Ratliff at the 5 this season.
Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte adds Argentinian forward Walter Herrmann for the 2006-07 season. Herrmann is 27 and shot the ball well from the international three-point line in the World Championships. hpanic7342 at APBRmetrics calculated Herrmann as having the 29th best PER in the World Championships, right behind his teammate Andres Nocioni.
Herrmann had 7 points, 4 rebounds, and one turnover in 18 minutes in an appearance for the Bobcats' Summer League team in Orlando. He will compete with Matt Carroll, Bernard Robinson Jr., and Alan Anderson for minutes backing up Gerald Wallace and Adam Morrison.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland officially takes the necessary step of re-signing Drew Gooden. At 3 years and $23 million, Gooden is a bargain assuming they don't give too many minutes to the Brazilian Ryan Bowen. I think Nikos Zisis and I are on the same page regarding what Varejao takes away from the game of basketball.
All credit to Cavs beat writer Brian Windhorst for honestly discussing in the blog entry linked above Varejao's tendencies for both flopping and taking cheap shots:
"I feel like I know Andy and his game. I know that sometimes it appears he plays absent minded, but actually I think he's fairly sharp. If you remember last season he took a shot at Rasheed Wallace and got ejected in Detroit and did it without looking like he was trying to. I've watched the Zisis video numerous times and I think that play in Detroit is comparable. I don't think Andy wanted to inflict such damage to Zisis' face and certainly he didn't mean to him (sic) him as hard as he did. But I there's a good chance he came in high with his elbow to send a message."Danny Ferry was himself quite adept at landing some innocuous looking cheap shots in his day. I continue to presume that this is a root cause of the Cavaliers' unhealthy fascination with turning an adequate backup who can play both the 4 and the 5 into a co-equal of Gooden and Ilgausaks.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Transactions, News, Notes Finally Sputters To a Conclusion
Toronto Raptors
Bryan Colangelo has certainly made a successful first step toward constructing an unrelentingly up-tempo attack. I think the Raptors lack the shooters to score a lot at this point but they should still be interesting to watch for the following reasons.
PJ Tucker will be a big presence on Hoopinion for the next 9 months.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz will reap the benefits of Orlando, New Orleans/OKC, and Philadelphia inexplicably passing up on Ronnie Brewer. The crowded backcourt situation (Question for Jazz partisans: Does trading for Derek Fisher at all undermine your desire to believe that Deron Williams is the equal of Chris Paul?) will likely impede Brewer's Rookie of the Year campaign but less violently than Brewer will impede CJ Miles' professional basketball career.
Dee Brown undoubtedly has a place as a good bench player in the NBA. I seriously doubt that that place is on Jerry Sloan's bench. Free Dee Brown!
Washington Wizards
The Wizards will be decent again and Gilbert Arenas sublime. Not much has changed. Darius Songaila has been brought aboard to make some 18-footers and match Jared Jeffries' near-total lack of rebounding for a man of his size. DeShawn Stevenson and His Amazingly Improved SAT Score will improve on Jeffries' performance as the guy who doesn't score, rebound, or pile up assists so he must be a defensive stopper. Unlike Jeffries, Stevenson (at times) actually is a defensive stopper.
Bryan Colangelo has certainly made a successful first step toward constructing an unrelentingly up-tempo attack. I think the Raptors lack the shooters to score a lot at this point but they should still be interesting to watch for the following reasons.
- Kris Humphries' odd brand of selfish finesse play and rebounding might actually succeed in a wide-open attack featuring lots of missed shots.
- The multi-faceted non-finesse of PJ Tucker's game rendering Joey Graham unnecessary.
- Early indications as to whether or not Tucker is a better basketball player than Andrea Bargnani.
PJ Tucker will be a big presence on Hoopinion for the next 9 months.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz will reap the benefits of Orlando, New Orleans/OKC, and Philadelphia inexplicably passing up on Ronnie Brewer. The crowded backcourt situation (Question for Jazz partisans: Does trading for Derek Fisher at all undermine your desire to believe that Deron Williams is the equal of Chris Paul?) will likely impede Brewer's Rookie of the Year campaign but less violently than Brewer will impede CJ Miles' professional basketball career.
Dee Brown undoubtedly has a place as a good bench player in the NBA. I seriously doubt that that place is on Jerry Sloan's bench. Free Dee Brown!
Washington Wizards
The Wizards will be decent again and Gilbert Arenas sublime. Not much has changed. Darius Songaila has been brought aboard to make some 18-footers and match Jared Jeffries' near-total lack of rebounding for a man of his size. DeShawn Stevenson and His Amazingly Improved SAT Score will improve on Jeffries' performance as the guy who doesn't score, rebound, or pile up assists so he must be a defensive stopper. Unlike Jeffries, Stevenson (at times) actually is a defensive stopper.
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Lightning Round (Part Two): Transactions, News, Notes
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is a long way from doing anything as fun as contending for a playoff spot, but they have more talent on the roster now than they had in early May. Kevin Pritchard may never be officially named GM but he'll still always be the last player I pretended to be on the playground before I got too old for such fantasies. Aldridge (once healthy), Roy, and Jack are potential All-stars. If they can get a role player who does even one thing well in exchange for Darius Miles, all the better. If they feel compelled to trade Zach Randolph, it will be almost impossible to get an equally talented basketball player in return. That's the rub with Zach Randolph.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings best players are aging (Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim), unsigned (Bonzi Wells--and re-signing with Sacramento doesn't appear to be an option), or crazy (Ron Artest). Though Kenny Thomas and Kevin Martin are the start of a good bench (if Martin starts ahead of John Salmons, then Thomas is the start of a good bench), there's not another veteran you'd want your team to put in the game. There is, however, Quincy Douby.
Everybody knows that Douby scored a bunch of points for Rutgers last year. I don't think everybody knows that Douby took 38% of his team's shots while on the floor while shooting over 51% inside the 3-point arc, and 40% from beyond the arc. He made 85% of his free throws, led his team in assists, and had a 7:4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Rutgers was as close to a one-man team as you could find in major college basketball in recent years. Opposing teams recognized it, keyed their defenses to stop one man, and that man foiled their efforts in terms of both production and efficiency. Douby is a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate and could be the saving grace of a disappointing season in Sacramento.
Seattle Supersonics
The Sonics have opted to give a full season's try with the roster they had at the end of the season. I think there's a good chance that results in an improved record (their team defense almost has to improve) but I doubt it's the recipe for play-off success. This is a decent roster; they should finish within a couple games of .500.
Watson and Ridnour form a good point guard tandem, especially if Watson plays a majority of the minutes. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis provide one great and one good scoring option on the wings. Wilcox and Collison should make for a nice power forward rotation alongside a potentially improved Swift/Petro platoon. If they continue to get decent production from Damien Wilkins on the wing then anything they get from Gelabele, Halperin, Felix, and Sene will be gravy.
Portland is a long way from doing anything as fun as contending for a playoff spot, but they have more talent on the roster now than they had in early May. Kevin Pritchard may never be officially named GM but he'll still always be the last player I pretended to be on the playground before I got too old for such fantasies. Aldridge (once healthy), Roy, and Jack are potential All-stars. If they can get a role player who does even one thing well in exchange for Darius Miles, all the better. If they feel compelled to trade Zach Randolph, it will be almost impossible to get an equally talented basketball player in return. That's the rub with Zach Randolph.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings best players are aging (Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim), unsigned (Bonzi Wells--and re-signing with Sacramento doesn't appear to be an option), or crazy (Ron Artest). Though Kenny Thomas and Kevin Martin are the start of a good bench (if Martin starts ahead of John Salmons, then Thomas is the start of a good bench), there's not another veteran you'd want your team to put in the game. There is, however, Quincy Douby.
Everybody knows that Douby scored a bunch of points for Rutgers last year. I don't think everybody knows that Douby took 38% of his team's shots while on the floor while shooting over 51% inside the 3-point arc, and 40% from beyond the arc. He made 85% of his free throws, led his team in assists, and had a 7:4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Rutgers was as close to a one-man team as you could find in major college basketball in recent years. Opposing teams recognized it, keyed their defenses to stop one man, and that man foiled their efforts in terms of both production and efficiency. Douby is a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate and could be the saving grace of a disappointing season in Sacramento.
Seattle Supersonics
The Sonics have opted to give a full season's try with the roster they had at the end of the season. I think there's a good chance that results in an improved record (their team defense almost has to improve) but I doubt it's the recipe for play-off success. This is a decent roster; they should finish within a couple games of .500.
Watson and Ridnour form a good point guard tandem, especially if Watson plays a majority of the minutes. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis provide one great and one good scoring option on the wings. Wilcox and Collison should make for a nice power forward rotation alongside a potentially improved Swift/Petro platoon. If they continue to get decent production from Damien Wilkins on the wing then anything they get from Gelabele, Halperin, Felix, and Sene will be gravy.
Monday, August 28, 2006
Lightning Round (Part One): Transactions, News, Notes
The last ten teams in the NBA (alphabetically) suffer, with my apologies, the indignity of having their transactions lumped together. I've got to get this done and get ready for the season previews.
Orlando Magic
Signing Keith Bogans and re-signing Trevor Ariza should make up for the loss of DeShawn Stevenson. JJ Redick wasn't (anywhere near) the best player available with the 11th pick, but Orlando may be the best fit for Redick and his particular talent. The Magic should make the play-offs. The Magic will definitely be a regular part of my League Pass rotation.
Philadelphia 76ers
A: The Philadelphia 76ers are so bad...
B: How bad are they?
A: The Philadelphia 76ers are so bad they'll miss John Salmons this season.
To be fair, the Sixers have a fairly interesting (not to be confused with productive) second unit: Louis Williams, Rodney Carney, Willie Green, Shav Randolph, Bobby Jones, and Steven Hunter. Being interesting is not going to help them win any games but I foresee a lot of entertaining garbage time in 2006-07.
Phoenix Suns
Letting Tim Thomas go was a no-brainer. Too many people got far too excited over the twenty decent games he played in the post-season. To expect similar production from Thomas after he signs a new contract would strain credulity. Let's hope that expecting a healthy Amare Stoudemire does not engender a similar strain.
Orlando Magic
Signing Keith Bogans and re-signing Trevor Ariza should make up for the loss of DeShawn Stevenson. JJ Redick wasn't (anywhere near) the best player available with the 11th pick, but Orlando may be the best fit for Redick and his particular talent. The Magic should make the play-offs. The Magic will definitely be a regular part of my League Pass rotation.
Philadelphia 76ers
A: The Philadelphia 76ers are so bad...
B: How bad are they?
A: The Philadelphia 76ers are so bad they'll miss John Salmons this season.
To be fair, the Sixers have a fairly interesting (not to be confused with productive) second unit: Louis Williams, Rodney Carney, Willie Green, Shav Randolph, Bobby Jones, and Steven Hunter. Being interesting is not going to help them win any games but I foresee a lot of entertaining garbage time in 2006-07.
Phoenix Suns
Letting Tim Thomas go was a no-brainer. Too many people got far too excited over the twenty decent games he played in the post-season. To expect similar production from Thomas after he signs a new contract would strain credulity. Let's hope that expecting a healthy Amare Stoudemire does not engender a similar strain.
Monday, August 14, 2006
New York Knicks: Transactions, News, Notes
We all know that this monstrous, misbegotten roster won't survive the season but for the time being one must muddle through and attempt to weigh the value of adding Jared Jeffries, Renaldo Balkman, and Mardy Collins to this putrid mix.
The signing of Jeffries renders the question of Balkman's ability to play in the NBA largely irrelevent as Balkman now figures to slot in somewhere behind Quentin Richardson, Channing Frye, Jared Jeffries, Jalen Rose, and David Lee in the race for minutes as a big guard, small forward, or undersized power forward. What uses Isiah might envision for Mardy Collins remain mysterious as at least two of Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Jamal Crawford, and Nate Robinson already figure to be complaining about minutes, touches, and respect on a daily basis.
As one who once witnessed Isiah Thomas choose to play Ron Mercer at point guard and not to have Ron Artest guard Paul Pierce throughout the 4th quarter of a play-off game, I concede that any combination of mis-matched parts could see the court simulataneously and that it is a fool's errand to attempt to decipher Isiah's decision-making process as either general manager or coach.
Furthermore, until the roster is next re-configured (+/- ten days from Halloween is my guess), those qualities that first Balkman, then Jeffries are touted to inject into the Knickerbockers' state of being: defense, hustle, and not shooting figure to come at the expense of the two remaining Knicks (Rose and Lee) who demonstrated the ability to score efficiently in the midst of dysfunction last year. The third Knick to demonstrate this quality last year, Jackie Butler, was allowed to sign with a franchise that knows what it's doing for less than 1/4 the money paid to Jeffries.
We'll speak of this again once half the roster has been jettisoned in the service of Isiah Thomas's next attempt at instant gratification.
The signing of Jeffries renders the question of Balkman's ability to play in the NBA largely irrelevent as Balkman now figures to slot in somewhere behind Quentin Richardson, Channing Frye, Jared Jeffries, Jalen Rose, and David Lee in the race for minutes as a big guard, small forward, or undersized power forward. What uses Isiah might envision for Mardy Collins remain mysterious as at least two of Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Jamal Crawford, and Nate Robinson already figure to be complaining about minutes, touches, and respect on a daily basis.
As one who once witnessed Isiah Thomas choose to play Ron Mercer at point guard and not to have Ron Artest guard Paul Pierce throughout the 4th quarter of a play-off game, I concede that any combination of mis-matched parts could see the court simulataneously and that it is a fool's errand to attempt to decipher Isiah's decision-making process as either general manager or coach.
Furthermore, until the roster is next re-configured (+/- ten days from Halloween is my guess), those qualities that first Balkman, then Jeffries are touted to inject into the Knickerbockers' state of being: defense, hustle, and not shooting figure to come at the expense of the two remaining Knicks (Rose and Lee) who demonstrated the ability to score efficiently in the midst of dysfunction last year. The third Knick to demonstrate this quality last year, Jackie Butler, was allowed to sign with a franchise that knows what it's doing for less than 1/4 the money paid to Jeffries.
We'll speak of this again once half the roster has been jettisoned in the service of Isiah Thomas's next attempt at instant gratification.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets: Transactions, News, Notes
I, too, believe that the NO/OKC franchise could be on the rise. Chris Paul and David West are excellent and good young players, respectively. Eventually, Jeff Bower will surround those two with quality teammates. Contrary to some reports, he did not do so this off-season.
By drafting Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong and trading for Tyson Chandler, Bower has almost certainly found at least one useful role player in the frontcourt though none of the three should be expected to contribute much offensively (even with Chris Paul aiding and abetting) in the foreseeable future. As for the rest of the roster, Bower allowed Speedy Claxton, JR Smith, and Kirk Snyder go in order to acquire/retain a passel of offensive players who don't score efficiently anymore (Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson) or never really have (Rasual Butler, Jannero Pargo). Claxton, Smith, and Snyder were probably not going to get the Hornets into the play-offs this year, but Bower has spent a lot of money to make the team older, more expensive, and quite possibly poorly equipped to match last year's 38 wins.
By drafting Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong and trading for Tyson Chandler, Bower has almost certainly found at least one useful role player in the frontcourt though none of the three should be expected to contribute much offensively (even with Chris Paul aiding and abetting) in the foreseeable future. As for the rest of the roster, Bower allowed Speedy Claxton, JR Smith, and Kirk Snyder go in order to acquire/retain a passel of offensive players who don't score efficiently anymore (Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson) or never really have (Rasual Butler, Jannero Pargo). Claxton, Smith, and Snyder were probably not going to get the Hornets into the play-offs this year, but Bower has spent a lot of money to make the team older, more expensive, and quite possibly poorly equipped to match last year's 38 wins.
New Jersey Nets: Transactions, News, Notes
The Nets have upgraded their bench this summer (granted, it's almost impossible to avoid coming out ahead when Jacque Vaughn, Scott Padgett, and Zoran Planinic leave your organization) but they still to figure to rely almost entirely on Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson. If those three stay healthy, the Nets should win the Atlantic Division again. Keep in mind, though, that in '05-'06 Kidd played more minutes than he had since 2003 and Carter played more minutes than he had since 2001. All that good health only helped the Nets to 49 wins and a 4-1 exit at the hands of the Heat in the Conference Semis. Thus, Antoine Wright being a year older and wiser and adding Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Mikki Moore, and Hassan Adams to the bench might prevent regression more than foster improvement.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Transactions, News, Notes
Early returns indicate that Minnesota has doubled its collection of good players. The manner by which Kevin McHale achieved this feat does not encourage optimism regarding the potential improvement of the remainder of the roster. Unfortunately, as Ricky Davis and Mike James continue to exist in limbo between being excellent supporting players or a self-destructive, would-be stars, there's nothing else on the roster but mediocre role players and guys who can't beat out mediocre role players for minutes.
But for his most saddening microfracture surgery, Rashad McCants would surely have endeavored to make Davis expendable. Perhaps in '07-'08, after Kevin Garnett's clock has made one more revolution.
But for his most saddening microfracture surgery, Rashad McCants would surely have endeavored to make Davis expendable. Perhaps in '07-'08, after Kevin Garnett's clock has made one more revolution.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Milwaukee Bucks: Transactions, News, Notes
Milwaukee's had a good off-season, one that should be evaluated as the first in a two-step project to create a 50-win team. This off-season, Larry Harris has turned TJ Ford, Joe Smith, and Jamaal Magliore into Steve Blake, Charlie Villanueva, Brian Skinner, and Ruben Patterson. Harris signed Lynn Greer and drafted David Noel to provide cheap, possibly useful, bench depth.
The multi-headed point guard monster of Mo Williams, Charlie Bell, Blake, and Greer should motor along just fine without Ford's poor shooting and defending. The aerodynamic Villanueva's efficient scoring will fit quite nicely alongside rebounding enthusiasts Andrew Bogut, Dan Gadzuric, and Skinner. Patterson will provide a perimeter defensive option other than Bobby Simmons.
Only Redd, Villanueva, Bogut, Simmons, and Gadzuric are under contract for 2007-08. (The team holds options on Skinner and Noel.) Those are the five Bucks you'd definitely want to keep (along with one of the point guards, likely). If Harris can carry out the second step (acquire a player as good or better than Redd) as deftly as he's carried out the first, the he'll be feted in the summer of '07 as John Paxson has been in the summer of '06.
The multi-headed point guard monster of Mo Williams, Charlie Bell, Blake, and Greer should motor along just fine without Ford's poor shooting and defending. The aerodynamic Villanueva's efficient scoring will fit quite nicely alongside rebounding enthusiasts Andrew Bogut, Dan Gadzuric, and Skinner. Patterson will provide a perimeter defensive option other than Bobby Simmons.
Only Redd, Villanueva, Bogut, Simmons, and Gadzuric are under contract for 2007-08. (The team holds options on Skinner and Noel.) Those are the five Bucks you'd definitely want to keep (along with one of the point guards, likely). If Harris can carry out the second step (acquire a player as good or better than Redd) as deftly as he's carried out the first, the he'll be feted in the summer of '07 as John Paxson has been in the summer of '06.
Miami Heat: Transactions, News, Notes
The NBA champions haven't made any significant changes this off-season. Alonzo Mourning has not yet re-signed but he is expected to do so. Gary Payton wants to re-sign as well and will probably get his wish because of Jason Williams' knee surgery. Derek Anderson may seek a buyout from the final year of his contract rather than sit on the end of the Heat bench in either warm-ups or street clothes.
If the end of the Heat bench includes a new face it will most likely be Mike Gansey, who signed a partially guaranteed deal. Gansey's probably a better player than Jason Kapono but neither player figures to make much of an impact, good or bad, in extremely limited minutes.
Chris Quinn, Vincent Grier, and Daniel Horton are the early favorites to be cut before their contracts become guaranteed.
If the end of the Heat bench includes a new face it will most likely be Mike Gansey, who signed a partially guaranteed deal. Gansey's probably a better player than Jason Kapono but neither player figures to make much of an impact, good or bad, in extremely limited minutes.
Chris Quinn, Vincent Grier, and Daniel Horton are the early favorites to be cut before their contracts become guaranteed.
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Memphis Grizzlies: Transactions, News, Notes
Memphis has gained more talent than they've given up this off-season but I'm not sure they're any closer to contending for anything grander than the fourth seed in the West. Then again, Jerry West traded for Rudy Gay who, though he inspires doubts regarding his willingness/ability to take over basketball games, has the talent to supplant Pau Gasol as the best player in Memphis while still on his first contract. Gay may or may not ever live up to the expectations placed upon him, but he doesn't appear to have much of a chance of turning into a bust, either. In a worst-case scenario, he's an adequate replacement for Shane Battier. That the Rockets threw in Stromile Swift, who will replace Lorenzen Wright, makes the trade a clear win for Memphis.
If Swift can match the production he provided during his first engagement with the Grizzlies (or even better, validate his reputation as a rebounder), then Mike Fratello will be able to deploy the various, limited talents of Jake Tsakalidis, Brian Cardinal, Hakim Warrick, Lawrence Roberts, and Alexander Johnson as a decent collection of frontcourt reserves. All, save Cardinal, are fairly intriguing prospects but only Tsakalidis, in limited minutes last season, has capitalized on his potential to any degree thus far in his professional career.
Adding Kyle Lowry (another safe draft pick who could become a quality starter in the NBA, but will likely never be worse than a good back-up) and re-signing Chucky Atkins should prevent the citizens of Memphis from seeing any more of Antonio Burks on the court despite the departure of Bobby Jackson and concerns over the health of Damon Stoudamire's knee. If Mike Fratello can similarly keep Dahntay Jones in street-clothes or at least off the court, Memphis should safely maintain their spot in the play-offs.
If Swift can match the production he provided during his first engagement with the Grizzlies (or even better, validate his reputation as a rebounder), then Mike Fratello will be able to deploy the various, limited talents of Jake Tsakalidis, Brian Cardinal, Hakim Warrick, Lawrence Roberts, and Alexander Johnson as a decent collection of frontcourt reserves. All, save Cardinal, are fairly intriguing prospects but only Tsakalidis, in limited minutes last season, has capitalized on his potential to any degree thus far in his professional career.
Adding Kyle Lowry (another safe draft pick who could become a quality starter in the NBA, but will likely never be worse than a good back-up) and re-signing Chucky Atkins should prevent the citizens of Memphis from seeing any more of Antonio Burks on the court despite the departure of Bobby Jackson and concerns over the health of Damon Stoudamire's knee. If Mike Fratello can similarly keep Dahntay Jones in street-clothes or at least off the court, Memphis should safely maintain their spot in the play-offs.
Los Angeles Lakers: Transactions, News, Notes
After 8100 mediocre minutes, the Devean George Era appears to be over. Why it took so long for the Lakers to find a replacement for George is beyond me, but congratulations, Mitch Kupchak, for finally acquiring a younger, better option.
I'm not as high on Jordan Farmar as some people are (right now his offensive game is basically Luke Walton's with more turnovers) but he should improve the Lakers' perimeter defense even as a rookie. Phil Jackson got a lot out of Smush Parker last year but evidence still suggets that Parker shouldn't play 2800 minutes or an imprtant role in play-off games.
Maurice Evans is a far more important acqusition than Farmar for the 2006-07 season. To get a quality bench player for a late second-round pick is a credit both to Kupchak and the Pistons apparent desire to become the third-best team in the Central Division. With a bench now consisting of Brian Cook, Evans, Radmanovic, Walton, Farmar, Ronny Turiaf and possibly Andrew Bynum, the Lakers can contend for the fourth seed in the West assuming Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom are ready to start the season.
I'm not as high on Jordan Farmar as some people are (right now his offensive game is basically Luke Walton's with more turnovers) but he should improve the Lakers' perimeter defense even as a rookie. Phil Jackson got a lot out of Smush Parker last year but evidence still suggets that Parker shouldn't play 2800 minutes or an imprtant role in play-off games.
Maurice Evans is a far more important acqusition than Farmar for the 2006-07 season. To get a quality bench player for a late second-round pick is a credit both to Kupchak and the Pistons apparent desire to become the third-best team in the Central Division. With a bench now consisting of Brian Cook, Evans, Radmanovic, Walton, Farmar, Ronny Turiaf and possibly Andrew Bynum, the Lakers can contend for the fourth seed in the West assuming Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom are ready to start the season.
Los Angeles Clippers: Transactions, News, Notes
The Clippers have made simple, stable, sensible decisions this off-season which still represents something of a brave new world for the organization. They locked up Sam Cassell for the next two years and replaced Vladimir Radmanovic with Tim Thomas in a like-for-like free agent signing.
Cassell's production will probably decline somewhat over the next two years but Shaun Livingston has plenty of room for improvement and he might both off-set Cassell's decline and keep Sam fresh for the play-offs. Thomas is unlikely to match Radmanovic's production (the play-offs were the first time Thomas had played well since 2004) but a healthier Corey Maggette should help the Clippers approach 50 wins again this year.
Second-round draft picks Paul Davis and Guillermo Diaz could improve either the Clippers' bench or lead the Anaheim Arsenal to the post-season.
Cassell's production will probably decline somewhat over the next two years but Shaun Livingston has plenty of room for improvement and he might both off-set Cassell's decline and keep Sam fresh for the play-offs. Thomas is unlikely to match Radmanovic's production (the play-offs were the first time Thomas had played well since 2004) but a healthier Corey Maggette should help the Clippers approach 50 wins again this year.
Second-round draft picks Paul Davis and Guillermo Diaz could improve either the Clippers' bench or lead the Anaheim Arsenal to the post-season.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Indiana Pacers: Transactions, News, Notes
The Pacers are waiting, waiting, waiting for the Hawks to complete a deal to bring Al Harrington back to town. He's not worth the wait for Indiana. Their greatest need was not to find someone to run their pose offense through on the nights when Jermaine O'Neal. Harrington doesn't do anything other than score and he's not especially efficient doing that.
When O'Neal is healthy, Harrington will serve both to limit his touches and the minutes of Marquis Daniels, Danny Granger, Stephen Jackson, Shawne Williams, and James White. Daniels (when healthy) Jackson, and Granger are all better players than Harrington. Williams and White probably aren't yet and may never be but at least they would complement O'Neal in some way.
The Pacers still need a good point guard and some quality post depth beyond this year's Maccabi Tel Aviv import, Maceo Baston. Baston should approximate Foster's game better than either David Harrison or Josh Powell. The modesty of Jasikevicius's production in 2006 should prepare Pacers fans' expectations for such faint praise.
When O'Neal is healthy, Harrington will serve both to limit his touches and the minutes of Marquis Daniels, Danny Granger, Stephen Jackson, Shawne Williams, and James White. Daniels (when healthy) Jackson, and Granger are all better players than Harrington. Williams and White probably aren't yet and may never be but at least they would complement O'Neal in some way.
The Pacers still need a good point guard and some quality post depth beyond this year's Maccabi Tel Aviv import, Maceo Baston. Baston should approximate Foster's game better than either David Harrison or Josh Powell. The modesty of Jasikevicius's production in 2006 should prepare Pacers fans' expectations for such faint praise.
Houston Rockets: Transactions, News, Notes
There's no safer bet to improve on their 2006 season than the Houston Rockets. Juwan Howard, Rafer Alston, David Wesley, and Luther Head all played more minutes than Yao and Tracy McGrady last year. Acquiring Shane Battier, who has never missed more than four games in an NBA season, even at a significant price, should at least assure that the Rockets at least have a good player available to play more minutes than the members of their guild of role players and would-be role players.
It would probably be foolish to expect a full, healthy season of production from McGrady, but any minutes he contributes beyond the 1746 he played last year will be of greater utility than those contributed by Head, Wesley, Derek Anderson, Keith Bogans, Ryan Bowen, Jon Barry, Moochie Norris, Rick Brunson, and Richie Frahm. That's such a motley collection that Jeff Van Gundy might find Kirk Snyder a breath of fresh air.
If Bob Sura can return from his year lost to micro-fracture surgery, all the better. Luther Head should be more useful in his second year. He could be far more productive than he was as a rookie if McGrady and Yao Ming are drawing attention on the court.
It's not all good news for the Rockets. Somebody's going to have to replace the departed Stromile Swift. Though a disappointment, Swift is still better than Juwan Howard or Ryan Bowen. The Rockets appear to be counting on Chuck Hayes being able to maintain his rebounding (6th in the league in rebound rate) and defensive production (5th in the league in defensive rating) in greatly increased minutes. I think that's unlikely even if Hayes reamins a good bench player.
It would probably be foolish to expect a full, healthy season of production from McGrady, but any minutes he contributes beyond the 1746 he played last year will be of greater utility than those contributed by Head, Wesley, Derek Anderson, Keith Bogans, Ryan Bowen, Jon Barry, Moochie Norris, Rick Brunson, and Richie Frahm. That's such a motley collection that Jeff Van Gundy might find Kirk Snyder a breath of fresh air.
If Bob Sura can return from his year lost to micro-fracture surgery, all the better. Luther Head should be more useful in his second year. He could be far more productive than he was as a rookie if McGrady and Yao Ming are drawing attention on the court.
It's not all good news for the Rockets. Somebody's going to have to replace the departed Stromile Swift. Though a disappointment, Swift is still better than Juwan Howard or Ryan Bowen. The Rockets appear to be counting on Chuck Hayes being able to maintain his rebounding (6th in the league in rebound rate) and defensive production (5th in the league in defensive rating) in greatly increased minutes. I think that's unlikely even if Hayes reamins a good bench player.
Monday, July 17, 2006
Golden State Warriors: Transactions, News, Notes
Even when Chris Mullin does something right, the potential for failure looms.
Case in point: he succesfully trades away one of the five bad-to-horrible contracts to which he's agreed to create playing time for a cheaper, younger option and said option, Monta Ellis, hurts his knee. Again. Ellis, you'll remember, was available for the Warriors to take in the second round because of concerns about the long-term health of his knees.
Having waived Will Bynum in order to take on the bulk of unwanted players necessary for the Jazz to match Fisher's salary, the Warriors are dangerously close to announcing Keith McLeod as the starting point guard on the nights Baron Davis can't answer the bell.
Warriors fans (and executives) are counting on a trade for either Iverson or Al Harrington to help recompose the roster. I think either trade will simply change the team's problems rather than provide the 10 win improvement they need to make the playoffs, but, if they complete either deal they will be negotiating with Billy King or Billy Knight, making the possibilities endless.
Case in point: he succesfully trades away one of the five bad-to-horrible contracts to which he's agreed to create playing time for a cheaper, younger option and said option, Monta Ellis, hurts his knee. Again. Ellis, you'll remember, was available for the Warriors to take in the second round because of concerns about the long-term health of his knees.
Having waived Will Bynum in order to take on the bulk of unwanted players necessary for the Jazz to match Fisher's salary, the Warriors are dangerously close to announcing Keith McLeod as the starting point guard on the nights Baron Davis can't answer the bell.
Warriors fans (and executives) are counting on a trade for either Iverson or Al Harrington to help recompose the roster. I think either trade will simply change the team's problems rather than provide the 10 win improvement they need to make the playoffs, but, if they complete either deal they will be negotiating with Billy King or Billy Knight, making the possibilities endless.
Detroit Pistons: Transactions, News, Notes
For all intents and purposes, the Pistons had only six guys they were willing to play in the playoffs last year. Ben Wallace's departure for Chicago reduces that number to five. The seventh and eighth members of Detroit's playoff rotation, Lindsey Hunter and Tony Delk, were old and ineffective and should be allowed to leave as free agents.
Letting the old, bad players go would be easier had Joe Dumars not traded away his best (relatively) young bench player, Maurice Evans, for skinny Senegalese project Cheick Samb. Evans allegedly requested the trade so as not to share minutes with Carlos Delfino next year. Which is odd as Delfino has yet to demonstrate even marginal competence in any facet of the NBA game. Still, he should be better than Alex Acker (should he be re-signed) or Flip Murray, who will fit in not at all with the veteran Pistons. Will Blalock should get minutes before Murray.
It looks like the rest of the bench will be Nazr Mohammed, Jason Maxiell, and what's left of Dale Davis which means that if the starting five stay healthy the Pistons should make the playoffs but if anyone gets hurt, things could get desperate quite quickly.
Letting the old, bad players go would be easier had Joe Dumars not traded away his best (relatively) young bench player, Maurice Evans, for skinny Senegalese project Cheick Samb. Evans allegedly requested the trade so as not to share minutes with Carlos Delfino next year. Which is odd as Delfino has yet to demonstrate even marginal competence in any facet of the NBA game. Still, he should be better than Alex Acker (should he be re-signed) or Flip Murray, who will fit in not at all with the veteran Pistons. Will Blalock should get minutes before Murray.
It looks like the rest of the bench will be Nazr Mohammed, Jason Maxiell, and what's left of Dale Davis which means that if the starting five stay healthy the Pistons should make the playoffs but if anyone gets hurt, things could get desperate quite quickly.
Denver Nuggets: Transactions, News, Notes
Denver was awfully mediocre last year and, as of this moment, it looks like more of the same this year. I don't really understand how adding Iverson will make the Nuggets much better. Even Billy King would demand Andre Miller in that deal and refuse to take Kenyon Martin.
I think.
Generally speaking, it's tough to build a championship team by spending $130M over the next half-decade on two oft-injured guys who play the same position. Tends to limit one's flexibility. It would be foolish to expect either great planning or great execution from a franchise owned by an important booster of the University of Missouri Athletic Department.
Turning whatever it is they own of Howard Eisley's rights into JR Smith is a positive, though, again, the end result of the move just means a battle for Greg Buckner's old minutes between Smith, Ruben Patterson, Julius Hodge, and DerMarr Johnson (should they re-sign him).
I'll take another look at the Nuggets later in the week after they decide whether or not to match Francisco Elson's offer sheet.
I think.
Generally speaking, it's tough to build a championship team by spending $130M over the next half-decade on two oft-injured guys who play the same position. Tends to limit one's flexibility. It would be foolish to expect either great planning or great execution from a franchise owned by an important booster of the University of Missouri Athletic Department.
Turning whatever it is they own of Howard Eisley's rights into JR Smith is a positive, though, again, the end result of the move just means a battle for Greg Buckner's old minutes between Smith, Ruben Patterson, Julius Hodge, and DerMarr Johnson (should they re-sign him).
I'll take another look at the Nuggets later in the week after they decide whether or not to match Francisco Elson's offer sheet.
Dallas Mavericks: Transactions, News, Notes
It hasn't been made official yet, but the Mavs re-upped Jason Terry at a very reasonable price for the next six years. That made it possible to swap the electrifying (when-healthy) Marquis Daniels for balding Austin Croshere (note the rarely-witnessed comb-forward in Croshere's pic in the linked story above) and his magical expiring contract. In less stimulating news, they announced a deal with DJ Mbenga.
So, Croshere presumably replaces Keith Van Horn, Buckner and draftee Maurice Ager replace Daniels and Adrian Griffin. Free agent Darrell Armstrong has been the subject of absolutely no rumor-mongering thus far but should be on somebody's bench this year should he so desire.
So, Croshere presumably replaces Keith Van Horn, Buckner and draftee Maurice Ager replace Daniels and Adrian Griffin. Free agent Darrell Armstrong has been the subject of absolutely no rumor-mongering thus far but should be on somebody's bench this year should he so desire.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Transactions, News, Notes
The Cavs really should go ahead and Clipse (credit to Joey from Straight Bangin') with Drew Gooden. Then Danny Ferry should go make sure that Drew Gooden isn't the second-best player on the team. I'm not sure how Ferry goes about doing that as no team should be anxious to take on Eric Snow at $20M over three years, Damon Jones at $12M over three years, or Larry Hughes at $50M over four years. Luke Jackson, Sasha Pavlovic, and Ira Newble are cheaper but useless. No wonder they've mistaken the Brazilian Ryan Bowen for a good player. It's all about the context of their perceptions.
My guess is that Ferry trades Big Z's expiring contract at the deadline or lets him walk at the end of the year. Ilgauskas is productive but he's an old 30 and he and LeBron don't look like they complement each other very well. They don't really look like they're playing the same game. Are there any two teammates, good teammates, that are more dissimilar?
I love the hope that the class of 2003 is expressing through their 3- to 4-year contract extensions. They aren't living in fear of injury or for the desire of profoundly bullet-proof financial security. They're trying to maximize wins and money and they're making the NBA more competitive, fluid, and flexible.
My guess is that Ferry trades Big Z's expiring contract at the deadline or lets him walk at the end of the year. Ilgauskas is productive but he's an old 30 and he and LeBron don't look like they complement each other very well. They don't really look like they're playing the same game. Are there any two teammates, good teammates, that are more dissimilar?
I love the hope that the class of 2003 is expressing through their 3- to 4-year contract extensions. They aren't living in fear of injury or for the desire of profoundly bullet-proof financial security. They're trying to maximize wins and money and they're making the NBA more competitive, fluid, and flexible.
Chicago Bulls: Transactions, News, Notes
John Paxson turned the second pick in the draft and Tyson Chandler into Tyrus Thomas, Viktor Khryapa, Ben Wallace, PJ Brown, and JR Smith. That's a solid summer. Oh, he also drafted Thabo Sefolosha, who, at least on my computer, watching through the single camera in the gym at the Orlando Summer League, looks ready to contribute immediately (the benefits of letting Kirk Hinrich exclusively play point guard could be significant). And, the Bulls are rumored to be in the running for Drew Gooden.
The Bulls used over 6000 minutes on Chandler, Darius Songaila, Mike Sweetney, Malik Allen, and Othella Harrington in the frontcourt last year, none of whom were better than mediocre. Wallace is a near-certainty to be good (even though he is declining), while Brown and Thomas figure to match the production of the journeymen they're replacing even in a worst-case scenario. Factor in that one of Deng, Gordon, or Sweetney (if he plays) could improve as well and the Bulls look capable of improving by 10-12 wins this year.
Signing Adrian Griffin to a three-year deal suggests that any big trade would most likely involve either Deng or Nocioni (perhaps one of Smith or Khryapa, too). Nocioni seems untouchable after his great playoff performance against the Heat but his trade value may never be higher because, 1) he was guarded by Antoine Walker for most of that series, and, 2) he's most useful playing as an undersized four but Tyrus Thomas and/or an effective Michael Sweetney will provide stiffer competition for those minutes.
Apparently, the Griffin signing means that JR Smith will never suit up for the Bulls, instead heading to Denver for Howard Eisley and two second-round picks. Eisley doesn't appear on any Nuggets roster that I can find but they apparently still own his rights after signing him for the rest of the season following two 10-day contracts last March. The Bulls intend to waive Eisley immediately. Fringe NBA prospects best hope those future second-round picks are far in the future. I don't see many young players with non-guaranteed contracts making this team over the next couple of years.
The Bulls used over 6000 minutes on Chandler, Darius Songaila, Mike Sweetney, Malik Allen, and Othella Harrington in the frontcourt last year, none of whom were better than mediocre. Wallace is a near-certainty to be good (even though he is declining), while Brown and Thomas figure to match the production of the journeymen they're replacing even in a worst-case scenario. Factor in that one of Deng, Gordon, or Sweetney (if he plays) could improve as well and the Bulls look capable of improving by 10-12 wins this year.
Signing Adrian Griffin to a three-year deal suggests that any big trade would most likely involve either Deng or Nocioni (perhaps one of Smith or Khryapa, too). Nocioni seems untouchable after his great playoff performance against the Heat but his trade value may never be higher because, 1) he was guarded by Antoine Walker for most of that series, and, 2) he's most useful playing as an undersized four but Tyrus Thomas and/or an effective Michael Sweetney will provide stiffer competition for those minutes.
Apparently, the Griffin signing means that JR Smith will never suit up for the Bulls, instead heading to Denver for Howard Eisley and two second-round picks. Eisley doesn't appear on any Nuggets roster that I can find but they apparently still own his rights after signing him for the rest of the season following two 10-day contracts last March. The Bulls intend to waive Eisley immediately. Fringe NBA prospects best hope those future second-round picks are far in the future. I don't see many young players with non-guaranteed contracts making this team over the next couple of years.
Charlotte Bobcats: Transactions, News, Notes
They drafted a young man with a little bit of facial hair and quite a lot of offense. Being unable to rebound or defend, the 21st-century Jeff Hornacek will, unfortunately, fit right in with his new teammates. Emeka Okafor better stay healthy this year. I'm pretty sure you can't finish ahead of even the Hawks with a frontline of Morrison, May, and Brezec.
Boston Celtics: Transactions, News, Notes
Paul Pierce's elbow will keep him from playing for Team USA this summer. It did not prevent Pierce from signing a contract extension.
Danny Ainge successfully swapped Raef LaFrentz's contract for Theo Ratliff's slightly less onerous deal, adding Sebastian Telfair in the process. Ainge then acquired Rajon Rondo in the draft, immediately making Bassy the third-best point guard on the roster. At the moment. Who knows what the roster will look like when the season starts. Will they add The Answer? Or some diversity?
Danny Ainge successfully swapped Raef LaFrentz's contract for Theo Ratliff's slightly less onerous deal, adding Sebastian Telfair in the process. Ainge then acquired Rajon Rondo in the draft, immediately making Bassy the third-best point guard on the roster. At the moment. Who knows what the roster will look like when the season starts. Will they add The Answer? Or some diversity?
Atlanta Hawks: Transactions, News, Notes
The Speedy Claxton signing should make it easier for me to become a Hawks fan. Salim Stoudamire ( "Honestly, there were days when I wanted to come up in here and fight somebody because we were losing so much.") is doing his part. I recommend Salim act on that impulse the next time he sees Tyronn Lue.
If one is willing to assume that Billy Knight gets some non-redundant talent (here's to not finding Troy Murphy in the A) from the Warriors or Pacers for Al Harrington, his next task should be the awesomely easy one of finding someone better than Lue or Royal Ivey to back up Claxton and start the 15-20 games Speedy will miss this year through injury. I nominate the following summer league stars who could be picked up for something approaching free: Travis Diener, Aaron Miles, or (ugh) Little John Lucas. I contend the 05-06 Hawks could have won as many as five more games if they had just signed a half-way decent point guard out of the D-League instead of letting Tyronn Lue shoot the ball every three minutes.
Early summer league reviews haven't been kind to Shelden Williams. My guess is that he's the latest decent-to-good complementary player (Boris Diaw, Jason Terry, Nazr Mohammed, Brevin Knight, Scot Pollard) who proves much more useful once he moves to a team with a plan.
If one is willing to assume that Billy Knight gets some non-redundant talent (here's to not finding Troy Murphy in the A) from the Warriors or Pacers for Al Harrington, his next task should be the awesomely easy one of finding someone better than Lue or Royal Ivey to back up Claxton and start the 15-20 games Speedy will miss this year through injury. I nominate the following summer league stars who could be picked up for something approaching free: Travis Diener, Aaron Miles, or (ugh) Little John Lucas. I contend the 05-06 Hawks could have won as many as five more games if they had just signed a half-way decent point guard out of the D-League instead of letting Tyronn Lue shoot the ball every three minutes.
Early summer league reviews haven't been kind to Shelden Williams. My guess is that he's the latest decent-to-good complementary player (Boris Diaw, Jason Terry, Nazr Mohammed, Brevin Knight, Scot Pollard) who proves much more useful once he moves to a team with a plan.
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
2006 NBA Draft
Comments/questions? Leave them below or e-mail hoopinion (at) yahoo (dot) com.
My draft bona fides: 2005 Preview and Grades.
Loosely organized and incomplete 2006 player rankings here.
Dick Vitale, his half-genuine enthusiasm notwithstanding, doesn't know that much about college basketball. He knows less about professional basketball and he knows nothing about international basketball. On the last count, he knows even less than I do as I'm more than willing to make snap judgments about international players based on 90 seconds of grainy highlights immediately after they're drafted. His annual involvement during the NBA Draft broadcast should have kept us from being surprised that ESPN would hire Dave O'Brien and Marcelo Balboa as their lead World Cup broadcast team.
1. TORONTO: Andrea Bargnani -- I've never seen him play, but he played fairly significant minutes in the Euroleague at the age of 20 and shot 59.6 eFG%. So he's good. That his statistics both in Euroleague and Lega A show a limited rebounder who almost never creates a good shot for a teammate (39 assists in 106 games according to nba.com). So he's a complimentary player for the foreseeable future. Toronto needs those and if Bargnani can contribute immediately he may make either Charlie Villanueva or Joey Graham expendable in the pursuit of a point guard.
2. PORTLAND: LaMarcus Aldridge -- Aldridge is going to be a good player on both ends of the court. For all the focus on his offensive game, he has tremendous potential as defensive player as well. His steal percentages have been strong both seasons at Texas to go along with his excellent blocked shot percentage. He also rebounds well on both ends.
People worry about his tendency to disappear for stretches last year, but he almost always played well against the best competition Texas faced and he never had a point guard to get him the ball. That Aldridge deferred shots and space at times to PJ Tucker is not necessarily a mark against Aldridge.
When the trade's announced by someone other than Andy Katz, I'll make it official here. Khryapa?
3. CHARLOTTE: Adam Morrison -- I expect him to be a bigger Jeff Hornacek, though even that might flatter Morrison as he can't pass as well as Hornacek. One could even argue just how much better Morrison is on the glass than Hornacek was. For all his limitations, Morrison is obviously a clever player and should be a good enough scorer to stay in the league long enough to learn the tricks that officials ignore that poor defenders use to keep themselves from being a complete liability to their teams.
At current count, Charlotte has two point guards (Felton and Knight), two power forwards (Brezec and May), two small forwards (Wallace and Morrison), and Emeka Okafor. It's an interesting method of roster composition. Unlike, the Hawks, I have some faith that Charlotte will turn their depth at certain positions into a functional basketball team.
4. CHICAGO: Tyrus Thomas -- Even though I think Aldridge is a safer pick than Thomas, should Thomas develop any sort of an offensive game either he or Randy Foye will be the best player to come out of this draft. Worst case scenario, Thomas will block a ton of shots and grab even more rebounds. Plus, Hinrich and whichever other guard sticks around in Chicago will appreciate having a big man around who can catch a pass and dunk it when running their constant pick-and-rolls.
5. ATLANTA: Shelden Williams -- I like Shelden Williams. A month ago, I thought he'd be a great pick in the middle of the first round for Chicago or Indiana or Washington. I guess the benefit for Atlanta here is that it slightly increases their options in brokering a sign-and-trade involving Al Harrington but, really, this is just the second year in a row they should have traded down and picked up more of the necessary pieces to build a basketball team. A real point guard from the D-League could still improve this team.
6. PORTLAND: Brandon Roy -- Roy will become a solid starter immediately, become an All-Star within five years, and maintain that level of play for five to seven years. Roy's passing and ball-handling could aid Jarrett Jack in his development.
7. MINNESOTA: Randy Foye -- Foye is going to be an excellent player. He can do pretty much whatever he wants on the offensive end including handle the ball a lot without turning it over. He and Garnett will love each other. Ricky Davis will look quite out of place. The last time Minnesota acquired a good player in the lottery ('96, Marbury) he came via draft-day trade as well.
8. MEMPHIS: Rudy Gay -- The ESPN talking heads can compare Gay to Jordan and Grant Hill if they want, but both those guys deferred to upperclassmen who lead their teams to national championships. Last year's UConn team was more like the '97 Kansas team that failed to get out of the Sweet Sixteen with four first-round draft picks. Unlike Paul Pierce (another guy who was young relative to his college class), though, Gay never established himself as the obvious best player on the team for any length of time this season. Marcus Williams is a little better than Jacque Vaughn as far as overrated college point guards go, but Gay is far too talented to provide any reasonable person with evidence to make the case that Williams is a better player than he is.
9. GOLDEN STATE: Patrick O'Bryant -- Make no mistake, Patrick O'Bryant is a project. Bradley got better when he became eligible, but he did not lead them to the tournament. Had the Braves relied on O'Bryant to be their best player they would have made their post-season run toward MSG. He's a shot-blocker and rebounder who will need to develop an offensive game. Right now, he's a more athletic Adonal Foyle.
10. SEATTLE: Saer Sene -- I have no idea how he fits on a roster with Robert Swift and Johan Petro. The Sonics must really not like playing Nick Collison at center. I can't blame them for that, but I'm not sure that they've found an immediately better option as of yet.
11. ORLANDO: JJ Redick -- Personally, I would have taken Ronnie Brewer, an immediate offensive upgrade over DeShawn Stevenson who would match Stevenson's defenseive production fairly quickly, but this is a great fit for Redick and still improves the Magic. His relative lack of athleticism has been blown out of proportion (assuming his back does, in fact, still work) following the LSU loss in the NCAA Tournament. Redick will never be the focus of a defense again. Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard will insure a fair number of open looks. There may be some problems created playing Redick and Turkoglu at the same time, but they're both smart players and should figure things out.
I will, however, be rooting for Travis Diener during shooting contests at practice.
12. NO/OKC: Hilton Armstrong -- Armstrong's destined to be a career backup. His rebounding ability is overrated as his production slants heavily toward the defensive glass. He's everything he's advertised to be as a shot blocker. There's no real difference between Armstrong and O'Bryant right now and there are better basketball players still on the board.
13. CHICAGO: Thabo Sefolosha -- Is the Serie A below the the Lega A in Italian basketball? Bargnani played in Lega A, Sefolosha played in Serie A and looks to have played well, showing a marked improvement as a three-point shooter this year. On the heels of the Nocioni signing, Chicago's international scouting gets the benefit of the doubt.
14. UTAH: Ronnie Brewer -- Ronnie Brewer's a sure thing. He's Marquis Daniels only we know he's coming. The only thing he lacks now is a consistent perimeter shot. He can shoot free throws effectively (and often), handle the ball, pass, and his defensive skills should develop rapidly once he gets some time in a man-to-man system.
15. NO/OKC: Cedric Simmons -- Here's one of those guys that offers you much the same today that O'Bryant and Armstrong offer while you giving some concrete hopes for offensive improvement. Simmons shot a ton of free throws last year as NC State's lone post threat. His free throw rate increased during ACC play before taking a dip in post-season play. Ideally, he'd have demonstrated greater rebounding prowess in college but I suspect that Herb Sendek artificially deflated Simmons' offensive rebounding numbers.
16. PHILADELPHIA: Rodney Carney -- Shawne Williams must be a real knucklehead to get drafted below Carney, the rarest hybrid, an extremely athletic three-point specialist. Carney should provide decent-to-good defense on the wing to go with his shooting, but he really hasn't demonstrated any ability to handle or pass the ball.
His draft night revelation that he refused to play AAU ball makes me a fan of his and a greater fan of his high school coach. The AAU system is leading the ruination of American basketball.
17. INDIANA: Shawne Williams -- Shot selection kept Shawne Williams from being an All-American candidate. The rest of his game (work ethic questions aside) is extremely precocious. He can shoot (79 percent on free throws), rebound, and, though a raw defender (back to basketball IQ and work ethic concerns) he managed a block or a steal on eight percent of the defensive possessions for which he was on the court.
I think Darius Washington magnified Williams' problems last year. A good point guard would have limited the number of decisions Williams had to make.
18. WASHINGTON: Oleksiy Pecherov -- Looks to be a finesse, rebounding center. I see a little Raef LaFrentz in the highlights.
19. SACRAMENTO: Quincy Douby -- He's somewhere between Ben Gordon and Salim Stoudamire on the spectrum of undersized shooting guards who have some uses. Both his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.8:1) and his shooting percentages (51.5% on 2PTFGA and 40.1% on 3PTFGA) were outstanding considering that everyone knew he was handling the ball until he shot or drew enough attention for one of his teammates to have an outside chance at making a shot on nearly every possession. He'll never be a point guard but he might score enough and be smart enough to steal minutes at the point with the second unit.
20. NEW YORK: Renaldo Balkman -- Huh. A perfect Larry Brown player. Balkman's Adrian Griffin without the European sabbatical to start his career. I don't see what he brings to a bad team, but Balkman's work in the margins might make a difference for a good team.
21. BOSTON: Rajon Rondo -- No, he can't shoot and, yes, he had a pretty bad sophomore year but I think he's the best point guard in this draft unless you count Randy Foye as a point guard. He will immediately provide good defense, rebound like Jason Kidd, and push the ball up the court.
I think Rondo struggled last year because lacked the ability to be the first option on a good college team and lost confidence in his teammates. The first of those problems is not going to occur with any NBA team and the second, one hopes, is a problem of maturity rather than temperment. Rondo's not good enough to make his teammates better but his skills compliment good players should they surround him.
22. NEW JERSEY: Marcus Williams -- He's overrated, but he's as useful as a slow guy who doesn't shoot a good percentage from anywhere but the free throw line. His rebounding prowess is overblown and he looks like a smart player on the court which leads optimists to hope that l'affaire des laptops and the poor conditioning can be outgrown.
23. NEW JERSEY: Josh Boone -- He could be better than Jason Collins, but he might not have the selfless, ruthlessness to be Jason Collins should he not develop his skills further. Boone plays with a air of melancholia which seemed to make Jim Calhoun hate him. Having Jim Calhoun hate you counts as a character reference as far as I'm concerned but may not be indicative of a successful professional basketball career.
24. MEMPHIS: Kyle Lowry -- I think Lowry's destined to be a career backup and a good one. He took great advantage of the unique concentration of perimeter talent at Villanova last year to score a significant percentage of his points at the free throw line. I'm skeptical that he'll be able to get to the line as often in the NBA. He did improve his shooting across the board in his sophomore season. If he continues to do that he could develop into something more special.
25. CLEVELAND: Shannon Brown -- LeBron needs a lot of help. Brown should provide some just by backing up Larry Hughes (i.e. starting the 20 games Hughes will miss) at first while trying to grow into the Flip Murray role, except Brown will try to be a good player. There is much work left to be done in Cleveland.
26. LA LAKERS: Jordan Farmar -- Kirk Hinrich without the jump shot, which, quite frankly, is what Kirk Hinrich is about 25% of the time. Farmar wastes too many possessions on bad shots and turnovers borne of aggression. He got away with that even on a low-possession, Ben Howland team because he is a fine, fine defensive player already. If his decision making improves he'll be quite valuable.
27. PORTLAND: Sergio Rodriguez -- He appears to be little more than el Steve Blake at this point. Is my boyhood idol, Kevin Pritchard, collecting point guards worse than he was in a subconscious effort to show that he deserved a better shot at sticking in the Association?
28. DALLAS: Maurice Ager -- I'm not sure what Ager brings to the Mavericks. He's an inconsistent player whose skills overwhelmingly tilt toward the offensive end of the court. If they get rid of Stackhouse and give those minutes to Howard and Daniels, Ager could provide some of Stackhouse's production in certain situations.
29. NEW YORK: Mardy Collins -- See Balkman above. Larry Brown would have loved Collins. The machinations of the Knicks franchise become ever more interesting. I love Collins, too. If he could shoot at all, he'd be a lottery pick. Still, having Eric Snow's skills in Aaron McKie's body should make Collins a millionaire.
30. PORTLAND: Joel Freeland -- I fully expect Joel Freeland to have the same impact in the NBA as Jonathan Spector will have in the English Premier League.
end of guaranteed contracts
David Stern's final introduction of Russ Granik was somewhat moving. I love the NBA Draft too much.
31. INDIANA: James White -- He might be able to step in and give you a good amount of Fred Jones' production. The pessimists amongst us might point out that it took White five years of college ball to demonstrate his usefulness.
Dear Steve Patterson,
Raef LaFrentz may be three years younger than Theo Ratliff but Raef's knees barely allow him to do the two things he could still do well on a basketball court (make 24' set shots, and reverse the ball from the top of the key). I don't think he'll be phyiscally able to play for half the remaining length of his contract.
32. HOUSTON: Steve Novak -- Novak will challenge Matt Bonner as the next link in the Matt Bullard-Pat Garrity chain.
33. ATLANTA: Solomon Jones -- The Hawks definitely needed an older, less polished version of Josh Smith.
34. LA CLIPPERS: Paul Davis -- The Clippers definitely needed a less athletic version of Chris Kaman.
35. TORONTO: PJ Tucker -- Joey Graham is done in Toronto. PJ Tucker, the Big 12 Player of the Year, is this year's Josh Howard. The meme that Tucker is an undersized power forward smacks of ignorance of both Tucker's game and Brad Buckman's existence. I criticized Rick Barnes for not playing Tucker at power forward enough last year but that doesn't mean he can't succeed as an inside-out player in the NBA. Tucker took on some playmaking duties following Daniel Gibson's failure at the point last season.
In this draft, Tucker is a lottery talent. He can play basketball. He doesn't need a position. He'll make you have to figure out who can matchup with him. If the league really is going small and multidimensional (and even if it's not, Toronto probably is) Tucker will make it look like a good decision both in terms of aesthetics and results.
36. MINNESOTA: Craig Smith -- Kevin McHale must really miss Gary Trent. When he gets healthy, I fear Smith will be a very good college player who is the wrong size to succeed in the NBA. You know, the guy PJ Tucker is supposed to be.
37. PHILAEDLPHIA: Bobby Jones -- Does Trenton Hassell need an understudy? Apparently not, but Andre Iguadala (and now Rodney Carney) do.
38. GOLDEN STATE: Kosta Petrovic --A center who doesn't rebound or block shots much in either the Euro or Adriatic leagues. Meh.
39. MILWAUKEE: David Noel -- I always found Noel difficult to watch. He displaces a lot of air without touching the ball much through rebound, steal, or block for such a great athlete. He turns the ball over a lot when he tries to pass or dribble. However, he was an extremely effective shooter last year on both two- and three-point shots so he must understand the game on some level.
40. SEATTLE: Denham Brown -- I don't get what Denham Brown does well enough to make an NBA team.
41. ORLANDO: James Augustine -- I like Augustine a lot. He's a more athletic Andrew DeClercq and should have his legitimate uses.
42. CLEVELAND: Daniel Gibson -- He can shoot. He can defend. He is never going to be a good point guard. Still, he's a better player today than Flip Murray.
43. NO/OKC: Marcus de Souza -- I'll go out on a limb and guess that he's more skilled than Anderson Varejao but less "high energy." Man, he looks raw in the highlight package.
44. HOUSTON: Lior Eliyahu -- I don't know much about the talent level in the Israeli Premier League, but Eliyahu's stat line looks nice. He looks like he has a nice frame in the highlight clips so he could have a chance to stay at power forward.
45. MEMPHIS: Alexander Johnson -- Johnson's a raw rebounder and shot blocker who teaches us all a lesson (with the help of Hilton Armstrong) the difference in earning power between being 6-11 and 6-9.
46. UTAH: Dee Brown -- He'll have to find the right situation, but once he does he'll be a bigger (and possibly better) Earl Boykins.
47. UTAH: Paul Millsap -- The rebounder probably won't be more than the new Michael Ruffin but I always liked Michael Ruffin.
48. WASHINGTON: Vladimir Veremeenko -- He shoots free throws well and in the Russian Superleague he shoots a good number of free throws. Competition caveats apply, but he seems to be a tall international player with some interest in rebounding.
49. BOSTON: Leon Powe -- If he stays healthy, Powe should find consistent work on NBA second units for five or six years. He's clever and talented but small and already limited by previous injuries.
50. CHARLOTTE: Ryan Hollins -- Hollins will do well to make the Charlotte roster. If he gets any playing time something disastrous will have happened to their frontcourt.
51. DETROIT: Cheick Samb -- An underfed (7-1, 195) project on Barcelona's U-20 team.
52. LA CLIPPERS: Guillermo Diaz -- I had Diaz on my potential bust list when some were projecting him as a late firs-round pick. It's perfectly reasonable to draft him here. He's big for an undersized shooting guard and he's all upside, though a foot shorter than the guys who are usually drafted (in part) on the basis of not having played basketball that long. If he makes a roster will he be the best volleyball player in the NBA since Wilt?
53. SEATTLE: Yotam Halperin -- When you're older than my girlfriend, you're in danger of not being much of a prospect. You need to be able to step in and help right away.
54. NEW JERSEY: Hassan Adams -- Adams has spent the last two season un-making himself one of my favorite players. He seems to have no grasp on his strengths and weaknesses. If he figures that out he can be a role player in the league for a long time.
55. CLEVELAND: Ejike Ugboaja -- May be less skilled than Varejao. Shot under 30% from the floor in the U-21 World Championships.
56. PHILADELPHIA: Edin Bavcic -- When nba.com lacks a profile of a draftee, I can't even make stuff up about the international players.
57. MINNESOTA: Loukas Mavrokefalidis -- Looks to be a big lug. WIll likely never contribute in the NBA. Unlike, say, Mike Gansey.
58. LA LAKERS: Danilo Pinnock -- In no way is Pinnock, generously the fourth-best player on about the 35th-best team in college basketball last year, a better basketball player than Mike Gansey.
59. MILWAUKEE: Damir Markota -- International big man who favors playing on the perimeter. Fran Fraschila's exicted, though, possibly because if he's talking then he isn't listening to Stephen A. Smith.
60. DETROIT: Will Blalock -- Marcus Banks, more or less, without the comfort of a guaranteed contract. Like so many others, Blalock could be a backup point guard never or forever.
My draft bona fides: 2005 Preview and Grades.
Loosely organized and incomplete 2006 player rankings here.
Dick Vitale, his half-genuine enthusiasm notwithstanding, doesn't know that much about college basketball. He knows less about professional basketball and he knows nothing about international basketball. On the last count, he knows even less than I do as I'm more than willing to make snap judgments about international players based on 90 seconds of grainy highlights immediately after they're drafted. His annual involvement during the NBA Draft broadcast should have kept us from being surprised that ESPN would hire Dave O'Brien and Marcelo Balboa as their lead World Cup broadcast team.
1. TORONTO: Andrea Bargnani -- I've never seen him play, but he played fairly significant minutes in the Euroleague at the age of 20 and shot 59.6 eFG%. So he's good. That his statistics both in Euroleague and Lega A show a limited rebounder who almost never creates a good shot for a teammate (39 assists in 106 games according to nba.com). So he's a complimentary player for the foreseeable future. Toronto needs those and if Bargnani can contribute immediately he may make either Charlie Villanueva or Joey Graham expendable in the pursuit of a point guard.
2. PORTLAND: LaMarcus Aldridge -- Aldridge is going to be a good player on both ends of the court. For all the focus on his offensive game, he has tremendous potential as defensive player as well. His steal percentages have been strong both seasons at Texas to go along with his excellent blocked shot percentage. He also rebounds well on both ends.
People worry about his tendency to disappear for stretches last year, but he almost always played well against the best competition Texas faced and he never had a point guard to get him the ball. That Aldridge deferred shots and space at times to PJ Tucker is not necessarily a mark against Aldridge.
When the trade's announced by someone other than Andy Katz, I'll make it official here. Khryapa?
3. CHARLOTTE: Adam Morrison -- I expect him to be a bigger Jeff Hornacek, though even that might flatter Morrison as he can't pass as well as Hornacek. One could even argue just how much better Morrison is on the glass than Hornacek was. For all his limitations, Morrison is obviously a clever player and should be a good enough scorer to stay in the league long enough to learn the tricks that officials ignore that poor defenders use to keep themselves from being a complete liability to their teams.
At current count, Charlotte has two point guards (Felton and Knight), two power forwards (Brezec and May), two small forwards (Wallace and Morrison), and Emeka Okafor. It's an interesting method of roster composition. Unlike, the Hawks, I have some faith that Charlotte will turn their depth at certain positions into a functional basketball team.
4. CHICAGO: Tyrus Thomas -- Even though I think Aldridge is a safer pick than Thomas, should Thomas develop any sort of an offensive game either he or Randy Foye will be the best player to come out of this draft. Worst case scenario, Thomas will block a ton of shots and grab even more rebounds. Plus, Hinrich and whichever other guard sticks around in Chicago will appreciate having a big man around who can catch a pass and dunk it when running their constant pick-and-rolls.
5. ATLANTA: Shelden Williams -- I like Shelden Williams. A month ago, I thought he'd be a great pick in the middle of the first round for Chicago or Indiana or Washington. I guess the benefit for Atlanta here is that it slightly increases their options in brokering a sign-and-trade involving Al Harrington but, really, this is just the second year in a row they should have traded down and picked up more of the necessary pieces to build a basketball team. A real point guard from the D-League could still improve this team.
6. PORTLAND: Brandon Roy -- Roy will become a solid starter immediately, become an All-Star within five years, and maintain that level of play for five to seven years. Roy's passing and ball-handling could aid Jarrett Jack in his development.
7. MINNESOTA: Randy Foye -- Foye is going to be an excellent player. He can do pretty much whatever he wants on the offensive end including handle the ball a lot without turning it over. He and Garnett will love each other. Ricky Davis will look quite out of place. The last time Minnesota acquired a good player in the lottery ('96, Marbury) he came via draft-day trade as well.
8. MEMPHIS: Rudy Gay -- The ESPN talking heads can compare Gay to Jordan and Grant Hill if they want, but both those guys deferred to upperclassmen who lead their teams to national championships. Last year's UConn team was more like the '97 Kansas team that failed to get out of the Sweet Sixteen with four first-round draft picks. Unlike Paul Pierce (another guy who was young relative to his college class), though, Gay never established himself as the obvious best player on the team for any length of time this season. Marcus Williams is a little better than Jacque Vaughn as far as overrated college point guards go, but Gay is far too talented to provide any reasonable person with evidence to make the case that Williams is a better player than he is.
9. GOLDEN STATE: Patrick O'Bryant -- Make no mistake, Patrick O'Bryant is a project. Bradley got better when he became eligible, but he did not lead them to the tournament. Had the Braves relied on O'Bryant to be their best player they would have made their post-season run toward MSG. He's a shot-blocker and rebounder who will need to develop an offensive game. Right now, he's a more athletic Adonal Foyle.
10. SEATTLE: Saer Sene -- I have no idea how he fits on a roster with Robert Swift and Johan Petro. The Sonics must really not like playing Nick Collison at center. I can't blame them for that, but I'm not sure that they've found an immediately better option as of yet.
11. ORLANDO: JJ Redick -- Personally, I would have taken Ronnie Brewer, an immediate offensive upgrade over DeShawn Stevenson who would match Stevenson's defenseive production fairly quickly, but this is a great fit for Redick and still improves the Magic. His relative lack of athleticism has been blown out of proportion (assuming his back does, in fact, still work) following the LSU loss in the NCAA Tournament. Redick will never be the focus of a defense again. Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard will insure a fair number of open looks. There may be some problems created playing Redick and Turkoglu at the same time, but they're both smart players and should figure things out.
I will, however, be rooting for Travis Diener during shooting contests at practice.
12. NO/OKC: Hilton Armstrong -- Armstrong's destined to be a career backup. His rebounding ability is overrated as his production slants heavily toward the defensive glass. He's everything he's advertised to be as a shot blocker. There's no real difference between Armstrong and O'Bryant right now and there are better basketball players still on the board.
13. CHICAGO: Thabo Sefolosha -- Is the Serie A below the the Lega A in Italian basketball? Bargnani played in Lega A, Sefolosha played in Serie A and looks to have played well, showing a marked improvement as a three-point shooter this year. On the heels of the Nocioni signing, Chicago's international scouting gets the benefit of the doubt.
14. UTAH: Ronnie Brewer -- Ronnie Brewer's a sure thing. He's Marquis Daniels only we know he's coming. The only thing he lacks now is a consistent perimeter shot. He can shoot free throws effectively (and often), handle the ball, pass, and his defensive skills should develop rapidly once he gets some time in a man-to-man system.
15. NO/OKC: Cedric Simmons -- Here's one of those guys that offers you much the same today that O'Bryant and Armstrong offer while you giving some concrete hopes for offensive improvement. Simmons shot a ton of free throws last year as NC State's lone post threat. His free throw rate increased during ACC play before taking a dip in post-season play. Ideally, he'd have demonstrated greater rebounding prowess in college but I suspect that Herb Sendek artificially deflated Simmons' offensive rebounding numbers.
16. PHILADELPHIA: Rodney Carney -- Shawne Williams must be a real knucklehead to get drafted below Carney, the rarest hybrid, an extremely athletic three-point specialist. Carney should provide decent-to-good defense on the wing to go with his shooting, but he really hasn't demonstrated any ability to handle or pass the ball.
His draft night revelation that he refused to play AAU ball makes me a fan of his and a greater fan of his high school coach. The AAU system is leading the ruination of American basketball.
17. INDIANA: Shawne Williams -- Shot selection kept Shawne Williams from being an All-American candidate. The rest of his game (work ethic questions aside) is extremely precocious. He can shoot (79 percent on free throws), rebound, and, though a raw defender (back to basketball IQ and work ethic concerns) he managed a block or a steal on eight percent of the defensive possessions for which he was on the court.
I think Darius Washington magnified Williams' problems last year. A good point guard would have limited the number of decisions Williams had to make.
18. WASHINGTON: Oleksiy Pecherov -- Looks to be a finesse, rebounding center. I see a little Raef LaFrentz in the highlights.
19. SACRAMENTO: Quincy Douby -- He's somewhere between Ben Gordon and Salim Stoudamire on the spectrum of undersized shooting guards who have some uses. Both his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.8:1) and his shooting percentages (51.5% on 2PTFGA and 40.1% on 3PTFGA) were outstanding considering that everyone knew he was handling the ball until he shot or drew enough attention for one of his teammates to have an outside chance at making a shot on nearly every possession. He'll never be a point guard but he might score enough and be smart enough to steal minutes at the point with the second unit.
20. NEW YORK: Renaldo Balkman -- Huh. A perfect Larry Brown player. Balkman's Adrian Griffin without the European sabbatical to start his career. I don't see what he brings to a bad team, but Balkman's work in the margins might make a difference for a good team.
21. BOSTON: Rajon Rondo -- No, he can't shoot and, yes, he had a pretty bad sophomore year but I think he's the best point guard in this draft unless you count Randy Foye as a point guard. He will immediately provide good defense, rebound like Jason Kidd, and push the ball up the court.
I think Rondo struggled last year because lacked the ability to be the first option on a good college team and lost confidence in his teammates. The first of those problems is not going to occur with any NBA team and the second, one hopes, is a problem of maturity rather than temperment. Rondo's not good enough to make his teammates better but his skills compliment good players should they surround him.
22. NEW JERSEY: Marcus Williams -- He's overrated, but he's as useful as a slow guy who doesn't shoot a good percentage from anywhere but the free throw line. His rebounding prowess is overblown and he looks like a smart player on the court which leads optimists to hope that l'affaire des laptops and the poor conditioning can be outgrown.
23. NEW JERSEY: Josh Boone -- He could be better than Jason Collins, but he might not have the selfless, ruthlessness to be Jason Collins should he not develop his skills further. Boone plays with a air of melancholia which seemed to make Jim Calhoun hate him. Having Jim Calhoun hate you counts as a character reference as far as I'm concerned but may not be indicative of a successful professional basketball career.
24. MEMPHIS: Kyle Lowry -- I think Lowry's destined to be a career backup and a good one. He took great advantage of the unique concentration of perimeter talent at Villanova last year to score a significant percentage of his points at the free throw line. I'm skeptical that he'll be able to get to the line as often in the NBA. He did improve his shooting across the board in his sophomore season. If he continues to do that he could develop into something more special.
25. CLEVELAND: Shannon Brown -- LeBron needs a lot of help. Brown should provide some just by backing up Larry Hughes (i.e. starting the 20 games Hughes will miss) at first while trying to grow into the Flip Murray role, except Brown will try to be a good player. There is much work left to be done in Cleveland.
26. LA LAKERS: Jordan Farmar -- Kirk Hinrich without the jump shot, which, quite frankly, is what Kirk Hinrich is about 25% of the time. Farmar wastes too many possessions on bad shots and turnovers borne of aggression. He got away with that even on a low-possession, Ben Howland team because he is a fine, fine defensive player already. If his decision making improves he'll be quite valuable.
27. PORTLAND: Sergio Rodriguez -- He appears to be little more than el Steve Blake at this point. Is my boyhood idol, Kevin Pritchard, collecting point guards worse than he was in a subconscious effort to show that he deserved a better shot at sticking in the Association?
28. DALLAS: Maurice Ager -- I'm not sure what Ager brings to the Mavericks. He's an inconsistent player whose skills overwhelmingly tilt toward the offensive end of the court. If they get rid of Stackhouse and give those minutes to Howard and Daniels, Ager could provide some of Stackhouse's production in certain situations.
29. NEW YORK: Mardy Collins -- See Balkman above. Larry Brown would have loved Collins. The machinations of the Knicks franchise become ever more interesting. I love Collins, too. If he could shoot at all, he'd be a lottery pick. Still, having Eric Snow's skills in Aaron McKie's body should make Collins a millionaire.
30. PORTLAND: Joel Freeland -- I fully expect Joel Freeland to have the same impact in the NBA as Jonathan Spector will have in the English Premier League.
end of guaranteed contracts
David Stern's final introduction of Russ Granik was somewhat moving. I love the NBA Draft too much.
31. INDIANA: James White -- He might be able to step in and give you a good amount of Fred Jones' production. The pessimists amongst us might point out that it took White five years of college ball to demonstrate his usefulness.
Dear Steve Patterson,
Raef LaFrentz may be three years younger than Theo Ratliff but Raef's knees barely allow him to do the two things he could still do well on a basketball court (make 24' set shots, and reverse the ball from the top of the key). I don't think he'll be phyiscally able to play for half the remaining length of his contract.
32. HOUSTON: Steve Novak -- Novak will challenge Matt Bonner as the next link in the Matt Bullard-Pat Garrity chain.
33. ATLANTA: Solomon Jones -- The Hawks definitely needed an older, less polished version of Josh Smith.
34. LA CLIPPERS: Paul Davis -- The Clippers definitely needed a less athletic version of Chris Kaman.
35. TORONTO: PJ Tucker -- Joey Graham is done in Toronto. PJ Tucker, the Big 12 Player of the Year, is this year's Josh Howard. The meme that Tucker is an undersized power forward smacks of ignorance of both Tucker's game and Brad Buckman's existence. I criticized Rick Barnes for not playing Tucker at power forward enough last year but that doesn't mean he can't succeed as an inside-out player in the NBA. Tucker took on some playmaking duties following Daniel Gibson's failure at the point last season.
In this draft, Tucker is a lottery talent. He can play basketball. He doesn't need a position. He'll make you have to figure out who can matchup with him. If the league really is going small and multidimensional (and even if it's not, Toronto probably is) Tucker will make it look like a good decision both in terms of aesthetics and results.
36. MINNESOTA: Craig Smith -- Kevin McHale must really miss Gary Trent. When he gets healthy, I fear Smith will be a very good college player who is the wrong size to succeed in the NBA. You know, the guy PJ Tucker is supposed to be.
37. PHILAEDLPHIA: Bobby Jones -- Does Trenton Hassell need an understudy? Apparently not, but Andre Iguadala (and now Rodney Carney) do.
38. GOLDEN STATE: Kosta Petrovic --A center who doesn't rebound or block shots much in either the Euro or Adriatic leagues. Meh.
39. MILWAUKEE: David Noel -- I always found Noel difficult to watch. He displaces a lot of air without touching the ball much through rebound, steal, or block for such a great athlete. He turns the ball over a lot when he tries to pass or dribble. However, he was an extremely effective shooter last year on both two- and three-point shots so he must understand the game on some level.
40. SEATTLE: Denham Brown -- I don't get what Denham Brown does well enough to make an NBA team.
41. ORLANDO: James Augustine -- I like Augustine a lot. He's a more athletic Andrew DeClercq and should have his legitimate uses.
42. CLEVELAND: Daniel Gibson -- He can shoot. He can defend. He is never going to be a good point guard. Still, he's a better player today than Flip Murray.
43. NO/OKC: Marcus de Souza -- I'll go out on a limb and guess that he's more skilled than Anderson Varejao but less "high energy." Man, he looks raw in the highlight package.
44. HOUSTON: Lior Eliyahu -- I don't know much about the talent level in the Israeli Premier League, but Eliyahu's stat line looks nice. He looks like he has a nice frame in the highlight clips so he could have a chance to stay at power forward.
45. MEMPHIS: Alexander Johnson -- Johnson's a raw rebounder and shot blocker who teaches us all a lesson (with the help of Hilton Armstrong) the difference in earning power between being 6-11 and 6-9.
46. UTAH: Dee Brown -- He'll have to find the right situation, but once he does he'll be a bigger (and possibly better) Earl Boykins.
47. UTAH: Paul Millsap -- The rebounder probably won't be more than the new Michael Ruffin but I always liked Michael Ruffin.
48. WASHINGTON: Vladimir Veremeenko -- He shoots free throws well and in the Russian Superleague he shoots a good number of free throws. Competition caveats apply, but he seems to be a tall international player with some interest in rebounding.
49. BOSTON: Leon Powe -- If he stays healthy, Powe should find consistent work on NBA second units for five or six years. He's clever and talented but small and already limited by previous injuries.
50. CHARLOTTE: Ryan Hollins -- Hollins will do well to make the Charlotte roster. If he gets any playing time something disastrous will have happened to their frontcourt.
51. DETROIT: Cheick Samb -- An underfed (7-1, 195) project on Barcelona's U-20 team.
52. LA CLIPPERS: Guillermo Diaz -- I had Diaz on my potential bust list when some were projecting him as a late firs-round pick. It's perfectly reasonable to draft him here. He's big for an undersized shooting guard and he's all upside, though a foot shorter than the guys who are usually drafted (in part) on the basis of not having played basketball that long. If he makes a roster will he be the best volleyball player in the NBA since Wilt?
53. SEATTLE: Yotam Halperin -- When you're older than my girlfriend, you're in danger of not being much of a prospect. You need to be able to step in and help right away.
54. NEW JERSEY: Hassan Adams -- Adams has spent the last two season un-making himself one of my favorite players. He seems to have no grasp on his strengths and weaknesses. If he figures that out he can be a role player in the league for a long time.
55. CLEVELAND: Ejike Ugboaja -- May be less skilled than Varejao. Shot under 30% from the floor in the U-21 World Championships.
56. PHILADELPHIA: Edin Bavcic -- When nba.com lacks a profile of a draftee, I can't even make stuff up about the international players.
57. MINNESOTA: Loukas Mavrokefalidis -- Looks to be a big lug. WIll likely never contribute in the NBA. Unlike, say, Mike Gansey.
58. LA LAKERS: Danilo Pinnock -- In no way is Pinnock, generously the fourth-best player on about the 35th-best team in college basketball last year, a better basketball player than Mike Gansey.
59. MILWAUKEE: Damir Markota -- International big man who favors playing on the perimeter. Fran Fraschila's exicted, though, possibly because if he's talking then he isn't listening to Stephen A. Smith.
60. DETROIT: Will Blalock -- Marcus Banks, more or less, without the comfort of a guaranteed contract. Like so many others, Blalock could be a backup point guard never or forever.
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
2006 NBA Draft Preview
Last year, in a far more in-depth preview than will be attempted this year (due to the World Cup), I ended things by placing 40 potential draftees in four categories: Best players in the draft, Safe picks to fill needs, Worth a flyer, and Potential busts.
One year later, those lists aren't hugely embarrassing. Of the eleven players I ranked as the best players in the draft, seven of them made the first or second All-Rookie teams. Granted, one can't brag too much about ranking Chris Paul as the fourth best prospect in the draft (though I did call him "the next Steve Nash") or Channing Frye as the second most likely bust in the draft, but I'll take my player evaluations (both prescient and misguided) against those of other amateur analysts.
I'll live blog the draft tomorrow night and give the reasons, such as they are, for these rankings then.
Best players (I've seen) in the draft
1. Brandon Roy
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Randy Foye
4. Ronnie Brewer
Safe, useful picks to fill needs (some even with upside)
1. Rudy Gay
2. Shelden Williams
3. Rajon Rondo
4. PJ Tucker
5. Adam Morrison
6. Rodney Carney
7. Mardy Collins
8. Maurice Ager
9. JJ Redick
10. James Augustine
Worth a flyer if you can afford it (good role players/high-risk talents)
1. Tyrus Thomas
2. Jordan Farmar
3. Quincy Douby
4. Mike Gansey
5. Shannon Brown
6. Shawne Williams
7. Kyle Lowry
8. Cedric Simmons
9. Patrick O'Bryant
10. Renaldo Balkman
11. Hassan Adams
12. James White
Hoping your team doesn't waste a valuable pick on a bust
1. Marcus Williams
2. Gullermo Diaz
3. Hilton Armstrong
4. Alexander Johnnson
One year later, those lists aren't hugely embarrassing. Of the eleven players I ranked as the best players in the draft, seven of them made the first or second All-Rookie teams. Granted, one can't brag too much about ranking Chris Paul as the fourth best prospect in the draft (though I did call him "the next Steve Nash") or Channing Frye as the second most likely bust in the draft, but I'll take my player evaluations (both prescient and misguided) against those of other amateur analysts.
I'll live blog the draft tomorrow night and give the reasons, such as they are, for these rankings then.
Best players (I've seen) in the draft
1. Brandon Roy
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Randy Foye
4. Ronnie Brewer
Safe, useful picks to fill needs (some even with upside)
1. Rudy Gay
2. Shelden Williams
3. Rajon Rondo
4. PJ Tucker
5. Adam Morrison
6. Rodney Carney
7. Mardy Collins
8. Maurice Ager
9. JJ Redick
10. James Augustine
Worth a flyer if you can afford it (good role players/high-risk talents)
1. Tyrus Thomas
2. Jordan Farmar
3. Quincy Douby
4. Mike Gansey
5. Shannon Brown
6. Shawne Williams
7. Kyle Lowry
8. Cedric Simmons
9. Patrick O'Bryant
10. Renaldo Balkman
11. Hassan Adams
12. James White
Hoping your team doesn't waste a valuable pick on a bust
1. Marcus Williams
2. Gullermo Diaz
3. Hilton Armstrong
4. Alexander Johnnson
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Preview: Kansas vs. Bradley
Bradley got the rawest of the several raw deals teams in the top half of the Oakland received from the Selection Committee. In drawing Kansas as their first round opponent, Bradley has a far slimmer chance of pulling an upset than inferior teams (San Diego State, Montana, Wisconsin-Mailwaukee, Pacific) with equivalent or higher seeds.
From Kansas' perspective, Bradley is a far better team than they would hope to meet in a 13-seed, but still, Kansas hasthe solace of being a better team than Bradley and should win the game.
Bradley relies heavily on two scorers (Marcus Sommerville (6-7, 225) and Patrick O'Bryant (7-0, 260)) neither of whom shoot very well from the floor or get to the free throw line often. That both Sommerville and O'Bryant are far more likely to shoot than pass further complicates matters. Kansas has generally done a fine job of suppressing the field goal percentages of their opponents' primary offensive options. Guards Tony Bennett (6-0, 175) and Daniel Ruffin (5-10, 165) are more likely to be open than Sommerville or O'Bryant but relatively unlikely to have the ball in their hands. That's not even taking into account the possessions Bradley will lose to a Kansas steal. It's a nice comfort to have the bigger, quicker guards in a matchup.
Bradley's greatest liability on offense may be defensive specialist JJ Tauai (6-3, 215). In 375 minutes this season Tauai attempted just 35 shots and 11 free throws. In the 5 games he played against the Missouri Valley's NCAA tournament teams, he attempted only 7 shots and no free throws in 86 minutes. Tauai passes the ball much better than Marcus Dove, but he doesn't provide the offensive rebounding that the taller Dove gives Oklahoma State. It will be interesting to see the extent to which the 6-3 Tauai can trouble Brandon Rush.
Bradley doesn't shoot many threes, less than 30% of their field goal attempts on the year, and they make less than a third of those they take. Kansas still leads the nation in two-point field goal percentage defense.
Forwards Zach Andrews (6-8, 225) and Lawrence Wright (6-4, 198) give Patrick O'Bryant some help on the offensive glass, but, as a team, Bradley's offensive rebounding falls off against better competition. Southern Illinois, the Valley's most athletic team, dominated Bradley on the glass in their last two meetings. Should O'Bryant get into foul trouble, the only other big men on the Bradley roster, Brandyn Heemskerk (7-1, 260) and Sam Singh (6-9, 260), have played a combined 124 minutes this year.
Bradley's defensive numbers may be deceivingly strong. There wasn't a lot of offensive talent in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. Wichita State and Missouri State were the only top-50 offenses in the league and Northern Iowa, ranked 71st, was the only other Valley team in the top-90 nationally. As a point of reference, Kansas State would have been an upper division offensive team in the MVC.
The numbers show that Bradley limits their opponents' field goal shooting (though not to the extent that Kansas does), forces a decent amount of turnovers, and (usually) controls the defensive glass. Sommerville, in particular, is a fine defensive rebounder. I assume his paltry offensive rebounding numbers are due to the volume and length of his shot attempts.
The numbers also show that Bradley's strong defensive performances have come in the slowest-paced games they've played. It's no secret that Kansas is far more effective offensively in high-possession games (unless Oklahoma State is involved). Bradley allowed 1.03 points per possession in at-risk games (road, neutral, home games against NCAA tournament teams) with at least 70 possessions per team. Kansas averages just under 70 possessions per game.
In all likelihood Bradley can't allow 1.03 points per Kansas possession. Only three teams (Nevada, St. Joseph's, and Texas) and Thomas Gardner have scored more than 1.03 points per possession in a game against Kansas this year. Bradley averages just 1.03 points per possession on the season. Looking at either at-risk games or just games against NCAA tournament teams, Bradley's offense shrinks to 0.97 points per possession. There are, as I said, some good defensive teams in the Valley. None of them are as good as Kansas.
Prediction: Kansas 71 Bradley 62
Friday, March 03, 2006
Preview: Kansas at Kansas State
Nobody in the Big 12 has guarded
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Preview: Colorado at Kansas
Here's Colorado's defensive performances on the road in conference play this year: at Texas, 1.22 PPP (loss); at Missouri, 1.15 PPP (win, but with a defense even more generous than the Jayhawks' in their loss in Columbia); at Oklahoma St, 1.09 PPP (win, but Oklahoma State's third most efficient offensive game in conference play); at Iowa State, 1.22 PPP (loss); at Texas A&M, 0.95 PPP (loss); at Kansas St, 1.02 PPP (loss); at Nebraska, 1.28 PPP (loss). That's an average of 1.13 PPP allowed and a median of 1.15 PPP allowed.
No conference visitor to the Fieldhouse has scored more than 0.95 PPP this season. A Colorado victory tonight will depend on seriously atypical play from both teams. Only Iowa State has appeared more willing than Colorado to play at Kansas' pace in conference play, which should further help the Jayhawks cause.
Looking back to the first meeting in Boulder, Kansas (50.0 OR%, 77.5 DR%) outrebounded Colorado essentially to the same degree that Texas (54.5 OR%, 72.7 DR%) outrebounded Kansas in Austin. The Jayhawks won rather handily behind 18 points in 30 minutes from Christian Moody. Jeff Hawkins played poorly (0 points, 4 turnovers, and five fouls) in 25 minutes. Julian Wright played only eight minutes. Granted, this was back when Darnell Jackson was playing well. Downs, Vinson, and Case combined for as many minutes as Mario Chalmers: 17. In their minutes, Downs, Vinson, and Case combined for no points and four turnovers.
Hawkins, Vinson, and Moody are sure to play some minutes on Senior Night, and deservedly so, but Colorado will be facing a somewhat different team than defeated them in Boulder.
Colorado doesn't seem to have a similar argument to expect a better performance in he re-match. They shot a mere 44.7 eFG% in Boulder, but they did make 40.9% of their three-point attempts. They attempted slightly fewer threes than normal (38.6% of FGA versus a season average of 39.7% of FGA), so they can't realistically hope for better perimeter shooting tonight in Lawrence. The Buffalos can hope to better their two-point shooting (34.3% in Boulder) and free throw shooting (52.2% in Boulder), though it took LaMarcus Aldridge to get the Big 12 collectively making more than 40% of the two-point shots attempted against Kansas this year.
Kansas, on the other hand, can certainly expect to shoot better than the 46 eFG% they managed in Boulder. They'll need to as it's unlikely they can replicate the extreme rebounding advantage they secured in Boulder. Colorado allows conference opponents to shoot 48.3 eFG% and the Jayhawks shoot 52.7 eFG% on average. Specifically, Kansas made only 2 of 13 three-point attempts in their first meeting with Colorado. Though not a good three-point shooting team, I think it's safe to assume the Jayhawks will make more than 20% of their three-pointers tonight.
Even after the game in Austin, Kansas has the third most efficient offense and the stingiest defense in Big 12 play. Kansas is 18 points per 100 possessions better than their conference opponents. Colorado is only 2 points per 100 possessions better than their conference opponents.
The Texas game demonstrated how far the Jayhawks have to go to compete with an excellent team. There is no reason to believe the blowout loss impaired their ability to dispense with mediocre teams.
Prediction: Kansas 81 Colorado 67
No conference visitor to the Fieldhouse has scored more than 0.95 PPP this season. A Colorado victory tonight will depend on seriously atypical play from both teams. Only Iowa State has appeared more willing than Colorado to play at Kansas' pace in conference play, which should further help the Jayhawks cause.
Looking back to the first meeting in Boulder, Kansas (50.0 OR%, 77.5 DR%) outrebounded Colorado essentially to the same degree that Texas (54.5 OR%, 72.7 DR%) outrebounded Kansas in Austin. The Jayhawks won rather handily behind 18 points in 30 minutes from Christian Moody. Jeff Hawkins played poorly (0 points, 4 turnovers, and five fouls) in 25 minutes. Julian Wright played only eight minutes. Granted, this was back when Darnell Jackson was playing well. Downs, Vinson, and Case combined for as many minutes as Mario Chalmers: 17. In their minutes, Downs, Vinson, and Case combined for no points and four turnovers.
Hawkins, Vinson, and Moody are sure to play some minutes on Senior Night, and deservedly so, but Colorado will be facing a somewhat different team than defeated them in Boulder.
Colorado doesn't seem to have a similar argument to expect a better performance in he re-match. They shot a mere 44.7 eFG% in Boulder, but they did make 40.9% of their three-point attempts. They attempted slightly fewer threes than normal (38.6% of FGA versus a season average of 39.7% of FGA), so they can't realistically hope for better perimeter shooting tonight in Lawrence. The Buffalos can hope to better their two-point shooting (34.3% in Boulder) and free throw shooting (52.2% in Boulder), though it took LaMarcus Aldridge to get the Big 12 collectively making more than 40% of the two-point shots attempted against Kansas this year.
Kansas, on the other hand, can certainly expect to shoot better than the 46 eFG% they managed in Boulder. They'll need to as it's unlikely they can replicate the extreme rebounding advantage they secured in Boulder. Colorado allows conference opponents to shoot 48.3 eFG% and the Jayhawks shoot 52.7 eFG% on average. Specifically, Kansas made only 2 of 13 three-point attempts in their first meeting with Colorado. Though not a good three-point shooting team, I think it's safe to assume the Jayhawks will make more than 20% of their three-pointers tonight.
Even after the game in Austin, Kansas has the third most efficient offense and the stingiest defense in Big 12 play. Kansas is 18 points per 100 possessions better than their conference opponents. Colorado is only 2 points per 100 possessions better than their conference opponents.
The Texas game demonstrated how far the Jayhawks have to go to compete with an excellent team. There is no reason to believe the blowout loss impaired their ability to dispense with mediocre teams.
Prediction: Kansas 81 Colorado 67
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