A Dwight Howard Primer

Dwight Howard played as well as one could reasonably hope this season. He played better than I expected. It didn't matter. 

The following excerpts aren't to pick on anyone because not watching the Hawks when you have a general NBA coverage brief is an eminently understandable decision this season. However, reading playoff preview content such as this from Jonathan Tjarks at The Ringer:

Atlanta’s best chance in its first-round series is for Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap to play so well together that it forces Scott Brooks to keep two traditional big men on the floor.

or this from Eric Freeman at Ball Don't Lie:

The Wizards are not an especially good interior team. Gortat puts up good numbers and Mahinmi can be useful when healthy, but these players do not constitute the strength of a playoff team. They’re important, to be sure, but not at the core of what the Wizards do. 

In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best.

suggests an opportunity exists to look beyond Howard's excellent individual rebounding stats, contextualizing the limited positive impact he's able to have on a roster where his presence makes little sense.

It should be no surprise that adding a defensively oriented role player to a team that finished 2015-16 2nd in the league in defense and 22nd in offense was not transformative. The Hawks remained an excellent defensive team, but were even worse offensively. Improving from a bottom-5 rebounding team to a slightly below average rebounding team doesn't matter much in a league accelerating toward the supremacy of shot making.

Howard's presence on the court improved the Hawks' rebounding by 7 percentage points on each end of the floor. Yet the Hawks were outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions with Howard on the floor. They scored 1.7 fewer points per possession and allowed 0.7 more points per possession with him on the floor. Probably because the Hawks' turnover rate increased by 4 percentage points, and their opponents' turnover rate deceased by 1.2 percentage points with Howard on the floor. Going back to Basketball on Paper, turnover rate is more important than rebound rate.

Of the top 6 Hawks in terms of minutes played, Dennis Schröder is the only Hawk who played even slightly better alongside Howard this season. Tim Hardaway, Jr. is the only one who formed a positive duo with Howard. Which makes sense as their skills are tilted toward the offensive end of the floor at least as much as Howard's are to the defensive end.

	w/ Howard		Overall
	Plus/Minus	Minutes	Plus/Minus	Minutes
Millsap	-0.1	1273	2.1	2343
Schröder	-1.8	1746	-2.0	2485
Hardaway	2.6	1143	2.8	2154
Bazemore	-3.4	1406	-2.8	1963
Sefolosha	-2.5	978	-0.8	1596

You'll notice that Millsap, in particular, played without Howard on the court. This is why one can be a crank, but not a dangerous crank, in advocating de-emphasizing Howard in a playoff series against a better, perimeter-oriented opponent.

Notes on Rebounding

As I've written previously, no NBA team could draw more marginal value from Dwight Howard's rebounding ability than the Atlanta Hawks. The freedom (which wasn't certain, at least in my mind) Budenholzer has granted him to attack the offensive glass is massively valuable and may well buoy the offense to league average levels, rather than languishing in the bottom third of the league, as I expected.

But, because of how rebounding works, Howard's gaudy, legitimately valuable rebounding totals are two-thirds defensive rebounds and, though he has improved the team's defensive rebounding, therefore broadening the solidity of the defense, all of those defensive rebounds he's grabbing aren't exactly new defensive rebounds for the Hawks.

The joint defensive versatility of Paul Millsap and Al Horford both mitigated the on-the-ball perimeter defensive limitations of their teammates and pressured the opposition into turnovers. The risk of this utility was that at least one of those two was often out of defensive rebounding position when opponents got a shot off. This put tremendous pressure on the wings to box out larger and/or more athletic players. Effort-wise, the wings were exceptional. Results showed the limitations of asking the willing to do something slightly beyond their physical capabilities.

With Howard on the court, the wings aren't asked to do this. Thus, Howard is getting both new defensive rebounds and some of the rebounds for which Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Korver used to battle.

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	Defensive rebound %
Name	2015-16	2016-17
Horford	18.2%	--
Howard	--	31.4%
Bazemore	18.0%	10.3%
Sefolosha	17.1%	13.7%
Korver	10.9%	9.3%

(Source: Basketball-reference.com)

Initial Feedback: Who Cares About Winning?

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players

Jeff Teague: On a night when Jannero Pargo made his first 5 3-pointers to blow the game open, Teague's 3 points and 3 assists in 14 minutes were window dressing. 3/10

Joe Johnson: Larry Drew's defensive schemes against Orlando in last year's playoffs are generally cited as the difference in the Hawks' series victory. Orlando's lack of sufficient defensive talent on the perimeter to guard shot creators Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford probably factored equally. This deficiency was on display again tonight. 6/10

Josh Smith: Pargo's outside shot was falling, Marvin's shot was falling, Smoove's shot was falling... Orlando's playoff seed is falling. Everything was falling.7/10

Zaza Pachulia: Speaking of falling, even as the Hawks win they manage to shoot themselves in the foot as Marvin rolled over Zaza's ankle, limiting him to 8 points and 4 rebounds in 16 minutes. Fortunately X-rays at halftime were negative and it is only a sprain. 6/10

Kirk Hinrich: Started and helped anchor the second unit that took care of business. Scored 8 with 5 assists but led the team with 3 turnovers. 4/10

Marvin Williams: You know you're missing something from your interior defense when Marvin Williams is free to drive and dunk. His form on his jump shot looked better than normal with no unnecessary horizontal movement or leg kick. 6/10

Tracy McGrady: As I read Atlanta Journal-Constitution Hawks beat writer Chris Vivlamore's report earlier today about the Hawks suspending Ivan Johnson for one game for an incident on the bench in Boston, I found one thing encouraging. Larry Drew told C-Viv that he had a good conversation with Ivan before he boarded a plane back to Atlanta and that the punishment was no different than he would have given to any other player.

I've been concerned that Drew might be the type to hold a grudge. For example, consider T-Mac's time in the dog house this year after he complained to the media about playing time. A game like this shows that Drew will still utilize a player he's had past difficulties with. It also shows that T-Mac can still help the Hawks in the playoffs, especially if Orlando is the first-round draw. 5/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Probably wouldn't have played if Ivan was available, and you can't expect much after all the time he's missed. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: The President of the Atlanta Hawks Streak Shooter Committee, Pargo is not a shot creator like Jamal Crawford. His struggles handling the ball have been well-chronicled on these pages. One thing he is, however, is a shot maker. 8/10

Jerry Stackhouse: Scored 11 points in 13 minutes as he toyed with Orlando's bench in garbage time. 6/10

Jason Collins: Marked present. Incomplete

Erick Dampier: Marked present. Incomplete

The head coach

Drew was thoroughly out-coached in Wednesday’s loss in Boston, but I still feel like the team is coming together. Doug Collins and Stan Van Gundy could both learn a few things from Drew about personality management. Not much coaching was required in this one.

5/10

A thought regarding the opposition

In the immediate aftermath of Van Gundy revealing that Howard asked for his removal as head coach, Miami Herald columnist Israel Gutierrez appeared on an ESPN First Take segment titled “Whose Side Are You On?” Gutierrez opened his remarks by saying, “I don’t see how anyone could NOT be on Stan Van Gundy’s side.” He went on to elaborate that Van Gundy was under no obligation to protect Dwight Howard’s reputation.

I can understand why you would be more concerned with shaping people’s perceptions of players if you are a newspaper columnist, but if you are an NBA head coach, shouldn’t you be more concerned about wins and losses? In what way does Van Gundy improve the prospects of the Orlando Magic by revealing Howard as a coach killer and sending his reputation just South of LeBron James? As mentioned previously, Van Gundy had the opportunity to coach the best center of a generation in two consecutive generations and failed to win a championship with either one. He’ll make a great commentator though.

ESPN.com: Stein: What will Magic want for Dwight?

Marc Stein reports on trade discussions between the Hawks and Magic regarding Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith:

Sources told ESPN.com that the aforementioned Hawks, meanwhile, engaged Orlando in trade talks for Howard earlier this month with an offer believed to be headlined by $124 million guard Joe Johnson and swingman Josh Smith. You have to figure that the Magic, though, would insist on Al Horford if such discussions ever got serious.

The Hawks are not on Howard's short list of preferred trade destinations alongside the Nets, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks, even though Atlanta is his hometown. That's presumably because Howard wants no part of Atlanta's perpetually unsettled ownership situation. The Hawks nonetheless took the risk of pursuing Howard anyway and, according to sources, felt like they were making some semblance of progress before the Magic shut down talks.

Otis Smith just traded Brandon Bass for Glen Davis so I'm not quite willing to figure that he would insist on Al Horford. Especially considering this paragraph from Stein's report:

Sources familiar with Orlando's thinking say that a picture of what the Magic will ultimately expect in return for their anchor has indeed begun to emerge, telling ESPN.com this week that Orlando would not hold out for youth and draft picks as the league-owned New Orleans Hornets were ordered to do in the Chris Paul sweepstakes. The Magic, sources say, would instead prefer to bring back multiple established veterans who can keep the team competitive.

This may be an instance where losing a franchise player in free agency and getting nothing in return benefits a franchise in the long term.

How Much Better Is Dwight Howard Than Al Horford?

Short answers: Some...depends how you account for defense...not as much as you* might think.

There's no question that Dwight Howard has been a far superior NBA player to Al Horford over the past three seasons. So far this season, Horford has closed the gap significantly despite his team's predilection for giving priority to 30-year-old offensive-minded guards over young, well-rounded post players.

Dwight Howard has a significant advantage over Horford as a scorer because Howard has been almost as efficient as Horford despite being a far larger part of Orlando's offense than Horford is of the Atlanta offense.

Name	Pts/36	TS%	Usg%
Howard	22.1	58.7	29
Horford	17.9	60.8	21.3

Scoring doesn't tell the whole story, as Horford is far more likely than Howard to earn an assist and far less likely to turn the ball over

Name	Ast/36	TO/36
Howard	1.1	3.6
Horford	3.5	1.5

26 of Horford's 86 assists have resulted in three-point baskets. 14 of Howard's 22 assists have resulted in three-point baskets.

Thus, the 4.2 point (per 36 minutes) scoring advantage Howard enjoys over Horford is more than negated by the extra 4.8 points (per 36 minutes) Horford's passing creates for his teammates and Horford's efficiency advantage only increases when the two extra turnovers Howard commits every 36 minutes are accounted for.

To be remotely comparable to Howard, Horford has to out-produce him with the ball in his hands because of all that Howard does to get the ball. Horford is a very good rebounder (13th in the league in defensive rebound rate, 17th in the league in total rebound rate this season) he's just not nearly as good a rebounder as Howard.

Name	OR%	DR%
Howard	11.1	30.5
Horford	8.9	25.3

Howard makes more defensive plays than Horford, as well:

Name	BS/36	S/36
Howard	2.4	1.1
Horford	1.0	0.9

Defensive plays do not tell the whole defensive story and both players play a key role in their team's defensive systems. Neither the Hawks nor the Magic have had a major drop-off when Horford or Howard have been off the court this season: the Hawks give up 1.3 more points per 100 possessions with Horford on the bench, the Magic give up half-a-point more per 100 possessions with Howard on the court so far this season but Howard certainly deserves credit for Orlando's general defensive excellence whereas Horford, it must be acknowledged, does not appear capable of elevating his team much above the league's defensive average.

So, yeah, as we all knew, Dwight Howard is a better basketball player than Al Horford. The larger point here is to illustrate that Al Horford (season-to-date) can be reasonably compared to Howard, that Horford is plenty good enough to be the two-way focus of his team's attack, should not be hidden from the likes of Semih Erden, and should not be the fourth offensive option on any team.

Every day the Atlanta Hawks persist in resisting, on the court, to play through Horford and, in the front office, to build the team around him is a partially wasted day.

*Especially if "you" are a member of the Atlanta Hawks organization.

Dwight Howard Gets It

By "gets it," of course I mean "appears to agree with me."

Amidst the frequent calls for the Hawks to add a "true" center, it's been as difficult to find a reference to the large and effective Zaza Pachulia as it is to find a defense of the Joe Johnson contract. In an interview with Jeff Schultz of the AJC, Dwight Howard provides an example (implicitly) of the former (HT: Soaring Down South):

"I like their lineup now. I know a lot of people get mad and say they’re not big on the inside, but they’re a big team. They’ve got big guards. They’ve got big forwards. They’ve got a flying forward [Josh Smith]. So it doesn’t really matter about having a seven-footer."

Howard also speaks of the potential folly of the Hawks building a team specifically to counter him:

"That’s only four games out of the season. You have to look long term and what’s best for your team. Cleveland got Shaq to match up with the Magic. They also got Antawn Jamison to match up with the Magic. But they didn’t even play the Magic. They played Boston [and lost]. You match up for the league, not just one team."