Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Oh, Yes, It's Been Bad

The drop-off from Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Jeff Teague to the rest of the healthy Hawks has been noticeable. BasketballValue helps make that drop-off measurable. Here's the on/off numbers (per 100 possessions) for the trio through two games against the Celtics:

PlayerOn CourtOff Court

For some reason (rest for games that aren't guaranteed to take place?) Drew has seen fit to use more than 10 of the series' 96 minutes to see what would happen if none of Smith, Johnson, or Teague were on the floor. I ask anyone under the age of 18 or with a delicate constitution to stop reading immediately. Smith, Johnson, and Teague have joined Drew on the sideline for 17 possessions of this series during which the Hawks have been outscored 19-7.

The makeshift starting lineup? +20 over 71 offensive and 68 defensive possessions.

Swap in Marvin Williams for Jason Collins? The Hawks are still +1 over 12 offensive and 15 defensive possessions.

Remove all your above average players from the floor at once? Disaster, not so surprisingly, strikes.

At this point, Larry Drew might run out of good players to rest, making a lesson learned practically impossible in the short term. Which makes the choice to handcuff himself with what turn out to be most talented and complete roster he had at his disposal in the playoffs so disappointing.

Doc Rivers has not yet rested Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett simultaneously in this series.


JDK3665 said...

When the game was over last night the first thing I checked was if Pierce sat at all during the 2nd half - he didn't.
Somehow the "old" team can afford to play their "old" men through crunch time while the "young" Hawks need a rest?!
Just makes me realize that Rivers gets it - while Drew doesn't.

Buddy Grizzard said...

Looking at basketball value in full mode, the numbers regarding McGrady's offensive and defensive impact seem to confirm what the eye test told me. Also, as with the aggregate +/- stats posted on (where McGrady is ranked 4th behind the Medium Three), McGrady has the best overall net rating among the non-starters.

Green again is shown to have the most overall negative impact on the team. Interestingly, it is the offense that suffers most with Green on the floor. The player with the most negative impact on the defense is actually Ivan.