I'm taking a bit of a different tack with the second positional post than I originally envisioned as I don't have a lot to say about the second ten point guard prospects.
Thus, the point guards (including European/played in Europe in 2008-09 prospects about whom I feel marginally confident about expressing an opinion) broken down by a rough estimation of where they could be picked for fair value.
---LOTTERY---
1) Ricky Rubio
2) Stephen Curry
3) Tyreke Evans
---FIRST ROUND---
4) Jrue Holiday
5) Brandon Jennings
6) Darren Collison
7) Eric Maynor
8) Ty Lawson
9) Jeff Teague
---SECOND ROUND---
10) Jonny Flynn
11) Nick Calathes
12) Patrick Mills
13) Daniel Hackett
14) Jack McClinton
15) Patrick Beverly
---FREE AGENT---
16) AJ Price
17) Ben Woodside
18) Aaron Jackson
19) Tyrese Rice
20) Dominic James
The categories are fluid and could be adjusted by the time I complete the position-by-position breakdowns and post a draft board. Questions, comments, criticisms, and arguments welcome as always.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
First Round Point Guards
I've got 22 point guards (now that Socttie Reynolds is returning to Villanova) in the draft prospect spreadsheet. I'll deal with 10 of them (Nick Calathes, Darren Collison, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Patty Mills, and Jeff Teague) in this post and the remainder in the next.
In deference to the amount of data I plan on presenting in the post and to the margins of this template, I'll break down the players' 2008-09 college numbers in smaller sections so as to ease digestion.
First, shooting and scoring:
Next, assists and turnovers:
Finally, defense and rebounding:
Now, player-by-player opinions. Links on their names go to their DraftExpress profile and the bounty of information (both scouting and statistical) contained therein. Projections (if applicable) are by Jon Nichols at Basketball-Statistics.com.
Nick Calathes
Calathes (headed to Greece for the near-future) is a dynamite offensive prospect capable of scoring inside and out (and possesses the potential to score even more often and efficiently were he to raise his free throw percentage), an above average ball-handler, and an outstanding passer.
Whether his defensive limitations are fundamental and absolute or correctable determines his potential value. I tend to believe that they are correctable, up to a point. Calathes will always be operating at a foot speed deficit compared to other point guards, and, despite his size, he currently lacks the strength to defend shooting guards adequately. Offensively, he augments his high skill level with obvious quickness so there is reason to believe he could learn to better position himself defensively so as to use his size to limit the ways in which a smaller, quicker point guard can beat him. His defensive rebounding numbers suggest some ability to use his size to his advantage and must be considered the one defensive advantage he holds over smaller point guards who are far superior man-to-man defenders.
Darren Collison
I'm a Darren Collison fan. He should be ready to contribute from day one due both to his experience and the breadth of his skill set. It's my contention that UCLA's pace of play, the backcourt talent he's played alongside, and the Pac-10's terrible TV contract have conspired to underrate him. He's a terrific offensive player, leading the first round point guard prospects in 2PTFG%, dropping below 40% on three-point attempts* only after a 5-18 slump (concurrent with a tailbone injury that limited his overall effectiveness) in the final weeks of UCLA's season, and averaging almost an assist every ten possessions he was on the floor despite sharing ball-handling duties with Jrue Holiday. Furthermore, he's the best defensive point guard** in this draft class something that tends to get de-emphasized in the non-five-on-five portion of the evaluation process (see also: Mario Chalmers in the 2008 Draft).
*He made 164 of 377 three-point attempts (43.5%) during his college career.
**Only Eric Maynor challenges him as of today though Jrue Holiday could surpass him over time.
Stephen Curry (Projection)
Anyone with even a passing acquaintance with college basketball is likely aware of Stephen Curry's amazing season at Davidson. Forced to play point guard while remaining the team's primary offensive option, Curry directly accounted, through his own points and the assists he earned, for approximately 75% of Davidson's offense when he was on the court. The increased ball-handling responsibilities deflated his scoring efficiency from the heights of his breakout 2007-08 season (60.7 eFG%, 64 TS%, 43.9 3PTFG%) but failed to render him an inefficient offensive player.
Generally speaking, combo guards aren't a great investment in the lottery, but combo guards are typically guys who can't quite cut it at either guard position at the college level not guys who excelled at both positions. I think Curry could be Ben Gordon* plus actual point guard skills. Curry will probably never be a full-time NBA point guard but he'll allow a smart team to use him both as a starter-quality player backing up their regular point guard and as a second ball-handler and passer (who also figures to become one of the top 10 shooters in the game) on the court for long stretches.
*Though his ability to use screens to get open is more reminiscent of Reggie Miller or Rip Hamilton, either of whom "plus point guard skills" is a pretty exciting theoretical construct.
Tyreke Evans (Projection)
I've grouped Evans with the point guards but he may end up as a big lead guard in the manner of OJ Mayo or Joe Johnson though he'd have to improve his shooting to resemble either of those guys fully. Whoever takes Evans in the top 10 will be banking on Evans' improvement in a number of areas. It's a reasonable assumption both because of Evans' wide-ranging skill set (Never underestimate the added value of a good rebounding guard nor that of a young player well indoctrinated in the virtues of playing defense.) and because of the improvement he showed during his lone season at Memphis. It took him 19 games to get his assist-to-turnover ratio above 1 for good. He started the season 7-37 from beyond the three-point arc but made more than 31% of his three-point attempts the rest of the way. Not great, but not hopeless, either.
Evans blossomed after John Caliapri moved him to point guard (not that the distinction between guard positions is that severe in the dribble-drive motion offense) so he very much needs the ball in his hands to be effective at this point in his development. I suspect he'll need a couple of seasons to become an efficient NBA scorer (the long two-point jumper figures to be a poisonous temptation) but his ability to cause matchup problems through his combination of size and quickness against opposing guards both small and large figures to win out in the end.
Jonny Flynn (Projection)
I've already expressed my skepticism regarding Flynn but to reiterate and expand upon my doubts what we've got here is a smaller than average point guard who doesn't score at a high rate, lacks a reliable jump shot, has not been asked to nor demonstrated the ability to play defense, and is getting a lot of intangible credit for being the heart and soul of an overrated* Syracuse team.
*They needed overtime in 17.8% of their wins. 13 of their 27 wins came in home games against non-NCAA Tournament teams. That's a lot for a team that played seven (and won five) post-season games at neutral sites.
That screams career backup to me. The Aaron Brooks comparisons, though inexact (Flynn should post more assists but will make and should take far fewer three-pointers), are fair in terms of value. Brooks has a career PER of 12.9 after two seasons and 2600 minutes and his hot, valuable run for the Rockets in this season's playoffs produced a 15.5 PER. Nice value in general, great value over a short period of time from the 26th overall pick in particular but not necessarily, even when he's just played basketball at his highest capability, a guy whose role a good team looks to expand no matter how busy he looks out there.
Jrue Holiday (Projection)
Like Russell Westbrook the season before, Holiday played out of position much of last season at UCLA. First of all this is a credit to Darren Collison's ability but it's also, as it was with Westbrook, an indication that Holiday can be a useful player even when his skills are not being maximized. Considering how bad Acie Law IV, a far more experienced player, looked when trying to make the transition from college to NBA basketball while also having to adjust to playing off the ball, I'm sympathetic to Holiday's inability to be an offensive factor while making a similar adjustment from high school to college basketball. Unlike Law, Holiday has other significant skills that translated in the jump between levels.
Holiday is unlikely to become the offensive player that Westbrook projects to be but he needn't match Westbrook in that manner to become an equally valuable NBA player because Holiday's the best defensive point guard prospect since Rajon Rondo, and, like Rondo, Holiday uses his size and quickness to pressure the ball at the point of attack, challenge shots, and as a rebounder. Even if I'm overcompensating for Holiday's lack of offensive production as a college freshman I suspect he'll carve out a career as a useful NBA player.
Ty Lawson (Projection)
Unlike with Darren Collison, I have some reservations about Ty Lawson making a smooth transition from leading a wildly successful college powerhouse to leading an NBA team. The reservations have as much to do with the differences between their college coaches as those between the players. Where Ben Howland's focus on half-court offense and defense should benefit Collison in the NBA and one can (as I do) project some room for the expansion of Collison's talent in an environment with fewer strictures, Ty Lawson put up ridiculous offensive numbers playing for a coach with a near-maniacal commitment to creating as many high-percentage shots for his players as possible and no team in the NBA really plays that way.
I don't think that Lawson is purely a product of Roy Williams' system but I think there's a real chance that Lawson was an ideal fit for that system and may struggle to adapt to a more conventional style of play. I doubt he'll fail, though, because he's good at too many things: getting to the rim, getting to the foul line, shot selection, passing, and not turning the ball over. That's about the whole of offensive basketball that Lawson has the potential to excel at in the NBA. I think he's a bit underrated defensively as well due both to common and somewhat misguided assumptions about his team's defensive ability and his own injury struggles. At full strength his quick feet and quick hands should mitigate his relative lack of size.
Eric Maynor (Projection)
Maynor might benefit from Mario Chalmers' competent rookie season. Both possess above average size and length for a point guard and though neither immediately impress upon the viewer their traditional offensive point guard skills they are both, in their own ways, effective distributors who also possess NBA three-point range. Defensively, Maynor will gamble less (and less successfully) than Chalmers but he'll also get beat less often.
This combination of size, point guard skills, and shooting ability should increase the number of teams with which Maynor could fit successfully. As a reasonably polished player capable of backing up both guard positions immediately Maynor should represent excellent value in the final third of the first round.
Patty Mills
Patty Mills has a strong reputation based on his play in international basketball but his collegiate statistical record (even accounting for his hand injury last season) fails to impress to a significant degree. A scoring point guard who, despite making less than 33% of his three-point attempts in his two seasons at Saint Mary's, attempted more than half of his field goals from beyond the arc, Mills figures to need the ball a lot to produce much of anything offensively in the NBA. His low assist rate (for a point guard) and average turnover rate combine to create a relatively inefficient offensive player in comparison to the other potential first round point guard prospects. Factor in concerns both about his size and his defensive ability and I think Mills looks like a player who have to develop, over time, into Jose Juan Barea or Jannero Pargo.
Jeff Teague (Projection)
Jeff Teague may return to Wake Forest for his junior season because, even though he's already a tremendous prospect as a scorer, were he to become a more rounded player, improving either as a point guard or as a defender, he could be a lottery pick this time next year. If Teague stays in the draft, he'll still go in the first round and the team that takes him could be well rewarded.
Teague can score every way possible but there's still room to project improvement for both his scoring volume and efficiency. It's not unreasonable to expect Teague to become a better finisher at and around the rim should his strength catch up with his athleticism. If he accomplishes that, he would become essentially unstoppable as he averaged over 32 points per 100 possessions at Wake Forest last year despite barely making half of his two-point attempts and using just 27.5% of his field goal attempts on three-pointers despite making 44% of his threes.
Injecting a note of caution into the proceedings: Teague does little to augment his scoring at this point. He demonstrates no conception of how to involve his teammates, turns the ball over too often attempting to create his own shot, and relies on his athleticism to make up for poor defensive fundamentals and indifferent initial effort on that end of the court. On the last count, I think there's room for hope as Teague, so often out of position or trailing the play, blocked more than one shot per 100 possessions last season.
Point Guard Rankings
1. Curry
2. Evans
3. Holiday
4. Collison
5. Maynor
6. Lawson
7. Teague
8. Flynn
9. Calathes
10. Mills
NEXT POST: Second round and free agent point guard prospects
In deference to the amount of data I plan on presenting in the post and to the margins of this template, I'll break down the players' 2008-09 college numbers in smaller sections so as to ease digestion.
First, shooting and scoring:
| Name | Pts/100 | eFG | TS | 2PTFG | 3PTFG | 3PTA/FGA | FT | FTRate |
| Calathes | 30.3 | 56.8 | 60.7 | 55.5 | 39.0 | 44.0 | 70.7 | 31.8 |
| Collison | 28.7 | 56.8 | 63.1 | 55.8 | 39.4 | 30.2 | 89.7 | 32.8 |
| Curry | 49.2 | 54.9 | 61.1 | 51.8 | 38.8 | 49.0 | 88.0 | 31.8 |
| Evans | 35.7 | 48.9 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 27.4 | 24.5 | 71.1 | 27.3 |
| Flynn | 27.2 | 50.6 | 57.4 | 51.7 | 32.1 | 30.1 | 78.5 | 37.6 |
| Holiday | 19.5 | 50.4 | 53.6 | 52.8 | 30.7 | 35.3 | 72.6 | 18.1 |
| Lawson | 29.9 | 59.8 | 66.4 | 55.5 | 46.1 | 31.2 | 80 | 49.2 |
| Maynor | 38.5 | 52.4 | 59.1 | 51.6 | 36.1 | 34.1 | 81.5 | 36.9 |
| Mills | 33.3 | 48.5 | 53.4 | 47.0 | 33.3 | 49.2 | 85.9 | 21.8 |
| Teague | 32.5 | 54.6 | 62.5 | 50.2 | 44.1 | 27.5 | 81.7 | 48.2 |
Next, assists and turnovers:
| Name | A/100 | TO/100 |
| Calathes | 11.3 | 5.8 |
| Collison | 9.4 | 4.9 |
| Curry | 9.3 | 6.5 |
| Evans | 8.1 | 7.5 |
| Flynn | 10.4 | 5.3 |
| Holiday | 8.5 | 4.9 |
| Lawson | 11.9 | 3.5 |
| Maynor | 10.6 | 5.1 |
| Mills | 6.7 | 5.1 |
| Teague | 6.1 | 5.8 |
Finally, defense and rebounding:
| Name | BS/100 | S/100 | OR% | DR% |
| Calathes | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.0% | 15.7% |
| Collison | 0.3 | 3.2 | 1.9% | 7.9% |
| Curry | 0.4 | 4.0 | 1.8% | 12.3% |
| Evans | 1.6 | 4.4 | 5.0% | 15.3% |
| Flynn | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.9% | 5.8% |
| Holiday | 1.2 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 11.8% |
| Lawson | 0.3 | 3.9 | 2.3% | 7.6% |
| Maynor | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.6% | 10.0% |
| Mills | 0.4 | 3.8 | 1.6% | 6.1% |
| Teague | 1.1 | 3.2 | 1.7% | 8.6% |
Now, player-by-player opinions. Links on their names go to their DraftExpress profile and the bounty of information (both scouting and statistical) contained therein. Projections (if applicable) are by Jon Nichols at Basketball-Statistics.com.
Nick Calathes
Calathes (headed to Greece for the near-future) is a dynamite offensive prospect capable of scoring inside and out (and possesses the potential to score even more often and efficiently were he to raise his free throw percentage), an above average ball-handler, and an outstanding passer.
Whether his defensive limitations are fundamental and absolute or correctable determines his potential value. I tend to believe that they are correctable, up to a point. Calathes will always be operating at a foot speed deficit compared to other point guards, and, despite his size, he currently lacks the strength to defend shooting guards adequately. Offensively, he augments his high skill level with obvious quickness so there is reason to believe he could learn to better position himself defensively so as to use his size to limit the ways in which a smaller, quicker point guard can beat him. His defensive rebounding numbers suggest some ability to use his size to his advantage and must be considered the one defensive advantage he holds over smaller point guards who are far superior man-to-man defenders.
Darren Collison
I'm a Darren Collison fan. He should be ready to contribute from day one due both to his experience and the breadth of his skill set. It's my contention that UCLA's pace of play, the backcourt talent he's played alongside, and the Pac-10's terrible TV contract have conspired to underrate him. He's a terrific offensive player, leading the first round point guard prospects in 2PTFG%, dropping below 40% on three-point attempts* only after a 5-18 slump (concurrent with a tailbone injury that limited his overall effectiveness) in the final weeks of UCLA's season, and averaging almost an assist every ten possessions he was on the floor despite sharing ball-handling duties with Jrue Holiday. Furthermore, he's the best defensive point guard** in this draft class something that tends to get de-emphasized in the non-five-on-five portion of the evaluation process (see also: Mario Chalmers in the 2008 Draft).
*He made 164 of 377 three-point attempts (43.5%) during his college career.
**Only Eric Maynor challenges him as of today though Jrue Holiday could surpass him over time.
Stephen Curry (Projection)
Anyone with even a passing acquaintance with college basketball is likely aware of Stephen Curry's amazing season at Davidson. Forced to play point guard while remaining the team's primary offensive option, Curry directly accounted, through his own points and the assists he earned, for approximately 75% of Davidson's offense when he was on the court. The increased ball-handling responsibilities deflated his scoring efficiency from the heights of his breakout 2007-08 season (60.7 eFG%, 64 TS%, 43.9 3PTFG%) but failed to render him an inefficient offensive player.
Generally speaking, combo guards aren't a great investment in the lottery, but combo guards are typically guys who can't quite cut it at either guard position at the college level not guys who excelled at both positions. I think Curry could be Ben Gordon* plus actual point guard skills. Curry will probably never be a full-time NBA point guard but he'll allow a smart team to use him both as a starter-quality player backing up their regular point guard and as a second ball-handler and passer (who also figures to become one of the top 10 shooters in the game) on the court for long stretches.
*Though his ability to use screens to get open is more reminiscent of Reggie Miller or Rip Hamilton, either of whom "plus point guard skills" is a pretty exciting theoretical construct.
Tyreke Evans (Projection)
I've grouped Evans with the point guards but he may end up as a big lead guard in the manner of OJ Mayo or Joe Johnson though he'd have to improve his shooting to resemble either of those guys fully. Whoever takes Evans in the top 10 will be banking on Evans' improvement in a number of areas. It's a reasonable assumption both because of Evans' wide-ranging skill set (Never underestimate the added value of a good rebounding guard nor that of a young player well indoctrinated in the virtues of playing defense.) and because of the improvement he showed during his lone season at Memphis. It took him 19 games to get his assist-to-turnover ratio above 1 for good. He started the season 7-37 from beyond the three-point arc but made more than 31% of his three-point attempts the rest of the way. Not great, but not hopeless, either.
Evans blossomed after John Caliapri moved him to point guard (not that the distinction between guard positions is that severe in the dribble-drive motion offense) so he very much needs the ball in his hands to be effective at this point in his development. I suspect he'll need a couple of seasons to become an efficient NBA scorer (the long two-point jumper figures to be a poisonous temptation) but his ability to cause matchup problems through his combination of size and quickness against opposing guards both small and large figures to win out in the end.
Jonny Flynn (Projection)
I've already expressed my skepticism regarding Flynn but to reiterate and expand upon my doubts what we've got here is a smaller than average point guard who doesn't score at a high rate, lacks a reliable jump shot, has not been asked to nor demonstrated the ability to play defense, and is getting a lot of intangible credit for being the heart and soul of an overrated* Syracuse team.
*They needed overtime in 17.8% of their wins. 13 of their 27 wins came in home games against non-NCAA Tournament teams. That's a lot for a team that played seven (and won five) post-season games at neutral sites.
That screams career backup to me. The Aaron Brooks comparisons, though inexact (Flynn should post more assists but will make and should take far fewer three-pointers), are fair in terms of value. Brooks has a career PER of 12.9 after two seasons and 2600 minutes and his hot, valuable run for the Rockets in this season's playoffs produced a 15.5 PER. Nice value in general, great value over a short period of time from the 26th overall pick in particular but not necessarily, even when he's just played basketball at his highest capability, a guy whose role a good team looks to expand no matter how busy he looks out there.
Jrue Holiday (Projection)
Like Russell Westbrook the season before, Holiday played out of position much of last season at UCLA. First of all this is a credit to Darren Collison's ability but it's also, as it was with Westbrook, an indication that Holiday can be a useful player even when his skills are not being maximized. Considering how bad Acie Law IV, a far more experienced player, looked when trying to make the transition from college to NBA basketball while also having to adjust to playing off the ball, I'm sympathetic to Holiday's inability to be an offensive factor while making a similar adjustment from high school to college basketball. Unlike Law, Holiday has other significant skills that translated in the jump between levels.
Holiday is unlikely to become the offensive player that Westbrook projects to be but he needn't match Westbrook in that manner to become an equally valuable NBA player because Holiday's the best defensive point guard prospect since Rajon Rondo, and, like Rondo, Holiday uses his size and quickness to pressure the ball at the point of attack, challenge shots, and as a rebounder. Even if I'm overcompensating for Holiday's lack of offensive production as a college freshman I suspect he'll carve out a career as a useful NBA player.
Ty Lawson (Projection)
Unlike with Darren Collison, I have some reservations about Ty Lawson making a smooth transition from leading a wildly successful college powerhouse to leading an NBA team. The reservations have as much to do with the differences between their college coaches as those between the players. Where Ben Howland's focus on half-court offense and defense should benefit Collison in the NBA and one can (as I do) project some room for the expansion of Collison's talent in an environment with fewer strictures, Ty Lawson put up ridiculous offensive numbers playing for a coach with a near-maniacal commitment to creating as many high-percentage shots for his players as possible and no team in the NBA really plays that way.
I don't think that Lawson is purely a product of Roy Williams' system but I think there's a real chance that Lawson was an ideal fit for that system and may struggle to adapt to a more conventional style of play. I doubt he'll fail, though, because he's good at too many things: getting to the rim, getting to the foul line, shot selection, passing, and not turning the ball over. That's about the whole of offensive basketball that Lawson has the potential to excel at in the NBA. I think he's a bit underrated defensively as well due both to common and somewhat misguided assumptions about his team's defensive ability and his own injury struggles. At full strength his quick feet and quick hands should mitigate his relative lack of size.
Eric Maynor (Projection)
Maynor might benefit from Mario Chalmers' competent rookie season. Both possess above average size and length for a point guard and though neither immediately impress upon the viewer their traditional offensive point guard skills they are both, in their own ways, effective distributors who also possess NBA three-point range. Defensively, Maynor will gamble less (and less successfully) than Chalmers but he'll also get beat less often.
This combination of size, point guard skills, and shooting ability should increase the number of teams with which Maynor could fit successfully. As a reasonably polished player capable of backing up both guard positions immediately Maynor should represent excellent value in the final third of the first round.
Patty Mills
Patty Mills has a strong reputation based on his play in international basketball but his collegiate statistical record (even accounting for his hand injury last season) fails to impress to a significant degree. A scoring point guard who, despite making less than 33% of his three-point attempts in his two seasons at Saint Mary's, attempted more than half of his field goals from beyond the arc, Mills figures to need the ball a lot to produce much of anything offensively in the NBA. His low assist rate (for a point guard) and average turnover rate combine to create a relatively inefficient offensive player in comparison to the other potential first round point guard prospects. Factor in concerns both about his size and his defensive ability and I think Mills looks like a player who have to develop, over time, into Jose Juan Barea or Jannero Pargo.
Jeff Teague (Projection)
Jeff Teague may return to Wake Forest for his junior season because, even though he's already a tremendous prospect as a scorer, were he to become a more rounded player, improving either as a point guard or as a defender, he could be a lottery pick this time next year. If Teague stays in the draft, he'll still go in the first round and the team that takes him could be well rewarded.
Teague can score every way possible but there's still room to project improvement for both his scoring volume and efficiency. It's not unreasonable to expect Teague to become a better finisher at and around the rim should his strength catch up with his athleticism. If he accomplishes that, he would become essentially unstoppable as he averaged over 32 points per 100 possessions at Wake Forest last year despite barely making half of his two-point attempts and using just 27.5% of his field goal attempts on three-pointers despite making 44% of his threes.
Injecting a note of caution into the proceedings: Teague does little to augment his scoring at this point. He demonstrates no conception of how to involve his teammates, turns the ball over too often attempting to create his own shot, and relies on his athleticism to make up for poor defensive fundamentals and indifferent initial effort on that end of the court. On the last count, I think there's room for hope as Teague, so often out of position or trailing the play, blocked more than one shot per 100 possessions last season.
Point Guard Rankings
1. Curry
2. Evans
3. Holiday
4. Collison
5. Maynor
6. Lawson
7. Teague
8. Flynn
9. Calathes
10. Mills
NEXT POST: Second round and free agent point guard prospects
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
2008-09 Draft Prospects Spreadsheet
Ready for public consumption. Let me know if anything's amiss or unclear. I'll be using this as the basis to breakdown the draft class (probably by position) with a focus on those players likely available at 19 and 49.
Quick key to the stats (something I should have posted initially)
%Min = Percentage of team's minutes played
3PTA/FGA = Three-point attempts as a percentage of field goal attempts
FT Rate = (100*FTM)/FGA
"X"/100 = Points, assists, turnovers, steals, and blocks per 100 possessions the player was on the court
Quick key to the stats (something I should have posted initially)
%Min = Percentage of team's minutes played
3PTA/FGA = Three-point attempts as a percentage of field goal attempts
FT Rate = (100*FTM)/FGA
"X"/100 = Points, assists, turnovers, steals, and blocks per 100 possessions the player was on the court
Monday, June 08, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: The End of the Bench
Mario West
The most specialized* specialist in the NBA, putative energy guy, and offensive rebounder of such abandonment that he might be classified as a health risk Mario West accomplished at least two things in his (baffling in its very existence) second NBA season:
*Useful for harassing the opposition's best perimeter player while he dribbles down the clock on an end of quarter possession.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Every day that Mario West spends on the Hawks' roster is an indictment of the organization's competence. Certainly seems like a nice guy, though.
Thomas Gardner
Gardner got just 98 minutes to attempt to prove he's becoming something more than the high-volume, low-percentage, high-turnover, non-defending player he was at Missouri. He made 9 of 36 shots, 4 of 23 three-pointers, earned two assists, turned the ball over three times, and never had to play defense. There's little indication why he was on the roster beyond league rules limiting how few players a team can employ.
Othello Hunter
Hunter only played 92 minutes but, because he demonstrated a potentially useful skill set (rebounding, not taking bad shots) at Ohio State, I suspect he's the most likely of the players discussed in this post to carve out an NBA career though his upside is likely as a fifth big man who won't kill a team if he's pressed into duty for a couple of weeks due to injuries to a couple of bigger, better players.
I have no idea why he didn't spend more time in the D-League.
Randolph Morris
Signing Randolph Morris seemed like a risk-free acquisition with potential benefits last summer. Today it seems more like a waste of time than money. The few times he left the bench he looked, understandably, nowhere near game shape. Morris has played just 314 minutes in two-plus NBA seasons, making 35.8% of his field goal attempts, 51.3% of his free throws, and committing a turnover or a foul every three-and-three-quarter minutes he's on the floor.
Speedy Claxton
Claxton's in the final year of the four-year deal he signed in the summer of 2006. The $5.2 million left on that deal now stands as an expiring contract and presents, perhaps, the first and last bit of value the organization will get from that deal.
The most specialized* specialist in the NBA, putative energy guy, and offensive rebounder of such abandonment that he might be classified as a health risk Mario West accomplished at least two things in his (baffling in its very existence) second NBA season:
- He scored more points than he committed fouls.
- He proved that he cannot contribute at all on the offensive end.
*Useful for harassing the opposition's best perimeter player while he dribbles down the clock on an end of quarter possession.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Every day that Mario West spends on the Hawks' roster is an indictment of the organization's competence. Certainly seems like a nice guy, though.
Thomas Gardner
Gardner got just 98 minutes to attempt to prove he's becoming something more than the high-volume, low-percentage, high-turnover, non-defending player he was at Missouri. He made 9 of 36 shots, 4 of 23 three-pointers, earned two assists, turned the ball over three times, and never had to play defense. There's little indication why he was on the roster beyond league rules limiting how few players a team can employ.
Othello Hunter
Hunter only played 92 minutes but, because he demonstrated a potentially useful skill set (rebounding, not taking bad shots) at Ohio State, I suspect he's the most likely of the players discussed in this post to carve out an NBA career though his upside is likely as a fifth big man who won't kill a team if he's pressed into duty for a couple of weeks due to injuries to a couple of bigger, better players.
I have no idea why he didn't spend more time in the D-League.
Randolph Morris
Signing Randolph Morris seemed like a risk-free acquisition with potential benefits last summer. Today it seems more like a waste of time than money. The few times he left the bench he looked, understandably, nowhere near game shape. Morris has played just 314 minutes in two-plus NBA seasons, making 35.8% of his field goal attempts, 51.3% of his free throws, and committing a turnover or a foul every three-and-three-quarter minutes he's on the floor.
Speedy Claxton
Claxton's in the final year of the four-year deal he signed in the summer of 2006. The $5.2 million left on that deal now stands as an expiring contract and presents, perhaps, the first and last bit of value the organization will get from that deal.
2008-09 Season Review: Solomon Jones
Three years into his NBA career, there's still little to indicate why the Hawks spent the 33rd pick of the 2006 Draft on Solomon Jones. Coming out of South Florida, a raw, relatively nondescript* player on a terrible team Jones has had little opportunity to develop as a basketball player at the professional level. From a certain perspective, one could argue that keeping Solomon Jones on the end of the bench for three seasons is a greater indictment of the Hawks' player-development philosophy than Acie Law IV's inability to gain a foothold in the rotation. The Hawks couldn't have drafted Jones with the expectation of him playing right away yet they've appeared to do little to help him develop or augment his nominal skills (shot blocking, offensive rebounding, dunking when handed the ball at the rim) or mitigate the inexperience that keeps him from taking advantage of his one real physical gift: length. It's difficult to rebound or block shots when you're constantly out of position, and, because of his limited skills and experience any blocked shots or offensive rebounds Jones has contributed in his 1486 minutes across three seasons have come at the the cost of fouls, turnovers, and defensive rebounds unclaimed.
*Certainly in comparison to several accomplished college players (Paul Davis, PJ Tucker, Craig Smith, James Augustine, Boobie Gibson, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, Hassan Adams, Jose Juan Barea, and Mike Gansey) still on the board at the time.
There's little in his performance record (and even less from watching him play) to suggest that he deserved more minutes from the Hawks but one can't help but wonder what benefit a long stretch in the D-League during the 2007-08 season rather than spending the entire season with the Hawks, playing just 145 minutes in 35 games might have done for Jones. One hopes that Jones's impending free agency lands him an opportunity to play somewhere so that he might begin to fashion a skill set that could earn him a basketball career.
*Certainly in comparison to several accomplished college players (Paul Davis, PJ Tucker, Craig Smith, James Augustine, Boobie Gibson, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, Hassan Adams, Jose Juan Barea, and Mike Gansey) still on the board at the time.
There's little in his performance record (and even less from watching him play) to suggest that he deserved more minutes from the Hawks but one can't help but wonder what benefit a long stretch in the D-League during the 2007-08 season rather than spending the entire season with the Hawks, playing just 145 minutes in 35 games might have done for Jones. One hopes that Jones's impending free agency lands him an opportunity to play somewhere so that he might begin to fashion a skill set that could earn him a basketball career.
Friday, June 05, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: Acie Law IV
Acie Law IV's future in Atlanta is tenuous at best. His second season was even more of a lost year than his first. Examining where he is now and what he might become as a player requires such a series of assumptions and suppositions regarding his ability, his health, and his future circumstances that even if some or those assumptions and suppositions prove true it's unlikely to have any beneficial effect for the Atlanta Hawks franchise.
Acie Law played one game and 305 minutes fewer in 2008-09 than in 2007-08. Some of that was due to injury. Some of that was due to Law's play. Most of that was due to the play of Mike Bibby and Flip Murray and Mike Woodson's comfort with veteran guards. If, in Law's rookie season, it too often appeared as if Law was not allowed to play through his mistakes, then in Law's second season Woodson largely declined to give Law the opportunity to make any mistakes in the first place.
In the short-term, it's not an indefensible decision but in the long-term it's a waste of a resource. Even if one accepts that Law is a poor fit alongside Joe Johnson, burying Law on the bench for two seasons seriously deflates the trade value of a player who was largely assumed to be at least a quality backup point guard coming out of college. As it stands now, a team that still believes in Law's potential or even one that actively desires acquiring him has no incentive for offering anything of value to a team that so clearly doesn't value either his current ability of future potential.
I don't have a strong opinion about Law's potential beyond believing that it's in his best interest to play for another team, another coach rather than remaining stuck in Atlanta as the last example of the dysfunctional relationship between Mike Woodson and Billy Knight. He's played but 1425 minutes across two seasons. That's 12.8 minutes per game, many of them spent playing out of position or running out garbage time.
It can't be ignored he hasn't played especially well, but, despite the utter lack of confidence shown in him last season there were some tangible improvements, some reasons to believe beyond the shared anecdotal belief that were Law just to make a higher percentage of shots at and around the basket* he'd approach, at minimum, league-average bench production.
*He's a 47% shooter in the paint (accounting for 58.8% of his field goal attempts, 70.6% of his two-point attempts) through two seasons.
Acie Law played one game and 305 minutes fewer in 2008-09 than in 2007-08. Some of that was due to injury. Some of that was due to Law's play. Most of that was due to the play of Mike Bibby and Flip Murray and Mike Woodson's comfort with veteran guards. If, in Law's rookie season, it too often appeared as if Law was not allowed to play through his mistakes, then in Law's second season Woodson largely declined to give Law the opportunity to make any mistakes in the first place.
In the short-term, it's not an indefensible decision but in the long-term it's a waste of a resource. Even if one accepts that Law is a poor fit alongside Joe Johnson, burying Law on the bench for two seasons seriously deflates the trade value of a player who was largely assumed to be at least a quality backup point guard coming out of college. As it stands now, a team that still believes in Law's potential or even one that actively desires acquiring him has no incentive for offering anything of value to a team that so clearly doesn't value either his current ability of future potential.
I don't have a strong opinion about Law's potential beyond believing that it's in his best interest to play for another team, another coach rather than remaining stuck in Atlanta as the last example of the dysfunctional relationship between Mike Woodson and Billy Knight. He's played but 1425 minutes across two seasons. That's 12.8 minutes per game, many of them spent playing out of position or running out garbage time.
It can't be ignored he hasn't played especially well, but, despite the utter lack of confidence shown in him last season there were some tangible improvements, some reasons to believe beyond the shared anecdotal belief that were Law just to make a higher percentage of shots at and around the basket* he'd approach, at minimum, league-average bench production.
*He's a 47% shooter in the paint (accounting for 58.8% of his field goal attempts, 70.6% of his two-point attempts) through two seasons.
| Season | 2PTFG% | 3PTFG% | FT% | FT Rate | TS% | Pts/36 | A/36 | TO/36 | PER |
| 2007-08 | 43.3% | 20.6% | 79.2% | 16.0 | 45.5% | 9.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 7.7 |
| 2008-09 | 39.1% | 31.0% | 81.7% | 35.2 | 49.0% | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 10.6 |
- Scoring up.
- Three-point shooting up.
- Three-point attempts up.
- Free throw rate up.
- Assists up.
- Turnovers down.
Mike Woodson on Josh Childress: "All Options Are Open."
Graydon Gordian of 48 Minutes of Hell offers this item amongst his leftover notes from covering the draft combine:
I spoke briefly with Coach Mike Woodson of the Atlanta Hawks. I asked him about Josh Childress’ situation and, if Childress were to sign with the Hawks again, would they be willing to trade him. Bearing a tremendously large grin, Woodson said, “All options are open.” Translation: If Childress returns to the NBA, he will most likely not be suiting up for Atlanta.There's many an interesting tidbit there for anyone jonesing for draft coverage.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: Maurice Evans
Previously: Rick Sund, Mike Woodson, Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Flip Murray, Zaza Pachulia
An almost perfectly average bench player, whose sole moment of inspiration (for me) this season (gratuitous references to Kansas heritage don't count) concerned the formulation of a (since abandoned) theory that Mike Woodson might underrate players who don't dribble a lot, Maurice Evans spent the 2008-09 season making spot up three-pointers, being in position defensively, and, in not doing much else, created the impression that he understood his limitations. He should be able to repeat the trick in the 2009-10 season though it wouldn't be the worst allocation of resources to bring in a younger, more athletic wing player to serve as a understudy/partner to Evans.
Because of Evans' very specific skill set, he should have a key bench role regardless of the changes to the roster this summer. His offensive role would likely shrink if the Hawks choose to push the tempo more often. On the other hand, were the Hawks to replace Mike Bibby with a penetrating point guard, Evans' presence behind the three-point line in the corner might become more valuable.
Evans provides largely effective defense despite not being the most athletic player. Were the Hawks to temper their enthusiasm for switching every screen, his intelligence and veteran guile might provide a slight defensive boost during his time on the court.
Then again, the predictability of Evans' production and his expiring contract might make him an attractive make-weight in a trade should Rick Sund attempt to remake the roster in some fundamental way either before or during the season.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: Zaza Pachulia
Previously: Rick Sund, Mike Woodson, Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Flip Murray
The first draft of Zaza Pachulia's season review ended where this final draft will begin as I feel it's more interesting* than crossing well-trod ground again. Will veteran free agents this summer be more amenable to short-term deals in the hopes of squeezing in another lucrative contract should the economy recover or would they rather forgo some annual salary to secure a salary for a greater number of years?
*In retrospect, perhaps a series of season review posts, with half the rotation entering free agency, was not as appropriate as at the end of the 2007-08 season when most of the rotation was seemingly assured of returning.
This is an important for the Hawks as the cumulative annual cost for Pachulia, Mike Bibby, and Flip Murray shouldn't surpass the $20.7 million they collectively cost last season and, if the Hawks can stay off the hook for paying these guys into the next decade the argument for retaining the core of the 47-win team for one more year becomes stronger.
Either way, it's absolutely vital that the Hawks re-sign or truly replace Zaza Pachulia. Even with Pachulia, whose offensive rebound rate was twice that of any Hawk regular other than Al Horford (and 180% of Horford's offensive rebound rate) and defensive rebound rate was 20.9% (which would have ranked just outside the league's top 20 had he played enough minutes to qualify), the Hawks were still a subpar rebounding team: 19th in OR%, 24th in DR%. Part of that is surely due to to Mike Woodson regarding Pachulia more as a backup center than as a third big man (which he surely should have been given the composition of last season's roster) and thus being reluctant to use Pachulia and Horford* at the same time.
*Pachulia played 45.7% of his minutes alongside Smith, 26.7% of them alongside Horford.
Beyond his value on the glass, both absolutely and in consideration of the relative weakness his teammates in that crucial facet of play, Pachulia plays sound position defense when able to establish position and forces opponents to make free throws when he's caught out of position. Furthermore, though his offensive role has shrunk since Al Horford's arrival, Pachulia rebounded from his injury-plagued 2007-08 season to post career highs* in both FG% and FT Rate.
*Just because I like rebounding more than 30-year-old guards doesn't mean that the caveats regarding Mike Bibby and Flip Murray making a lot of shots in a contract year should not also be applied to Pachulia.
Now there's certainly a non-zero chance that Pachulia will actively look to play for another team (Whether that motivation is primarily a desire for a larger role, to play for a championship contender, or just for a different coach is immaterial.) next season which will open up a massive hole in the frontcourt rotation. Pachulia's varied skills* have gone some way toward hiding the fact that the Hawks haven't had a backup power forward for two seasons now. Should he not return, the Hawks will likely require the addition of two players (a smaller scorer/rebounder and a larger defender/rebounder) to fill the void.
*Pachulia's collection of skills (true center, two-way rebounder, efficient offensive player, decent defender, non-shot blocker) is unique and should appeal both to better teams wishing to add him as a top reserve and worse teams willing to install him as a starter.
June 3rd Links
- At Celtics Hub, Zach Lowe examines Ike Diogu who was a central part of my argument for the Hawks trading down from the second pick in the 2005 Draft. Something to keep in mind as I begin to evaluate this year's draft class. That caveat aside, I'd be all for the Hawks signing Diogu if David Andersen doesn't come over.
- Depressed Fan has a nifty (though assumption-derived, read the disclaimer) chart covering each team's salary cap situation. (HT: Celtics Blog)
- Michael Gearon, Jr. talks to The Atlanta Business Chronicle.
- Previous subject of discussion Tony Allen had surgery on his right ankle and leg. He's expected to recover in time for training camp.
- I'm pretty sure I won't catch Kurt Helin of Forum Blue and Gold by doing so, but I'm picking the Lakers in 6.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
The Starting Five: Interview With Sekou Smith
Jerold Wells Jr. conducts an excellent, lengthy interview with the AJC's invaluable Hawks beat writer:
JW: “Weigh in on this debate. Joe Johnson or Josh Smith. I’ve watched the growth of Joe Johnson from High School phenom to college star. I watched him blossom in Phoenix after the trade from Boston. I’ve watched him play here. When I see Joe Johnson I see star. I’ve also watched the growth and promise of Josh Smith. I see the physical tools, the potential, the skill set. I’ve watched his growth. That being said, whose team are the Hawks and whose team should they be? ”
SS: I don’t think the Hawks are either one of their team and I don’t think it should be. There is a clear tug of war here as to what style of basketball to play. I don’t think its conscience (sic) or even spoken but it’s there. I think this team needs that same thing Denver needed when Chauncey Billups came. Sometimes you need a guy that eliminates the friction from a situation. To me Chauncey is the consummate point guard. He’s the model in this era. You want a guy that’s not so overcome with being a star that he overshadows the team. You want a guy so overcome with winning that the will to win supersedes egos.
June 2nd Draft Links
- Chad Ford's third mock draft (Insider) has the Hawks taking Jeff Teague over Ty Lawson, Toney Douglas, and Darren Collison. Speaking of Collison, I corrected the table in this post so the entire thing is now visible.
- Steve Kyler of Hoopsworld posted an unsubstantiated rumor regarding the Hawks and Marcus Thornton.
2008-09 Season Review: Ronald "Flip" Murray
Previously: Rick Sund, Mike Woodson, Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams
It seemed like a horrible idea at the time, but signing Flip Murray to a 1-year, $1.5 million contract proved to be one of the most cost-effective free agent signings of the season. Credit for that goes to Murray, to Rick Sund, and to Mike Woodson. Murray's successful season provides a rare example of Mike Woodson making an adjustment to accommodate a player's strengths and limit the potential damage of his weaknesses.
After a hot start to the season, Murray struggled from mid-November to the end of 2008 his game marked most prominently by futile forays into the lane that would culminate with him losing possession of the ball in such a manner as to invariably open a debate over whether his final act of the possession had a been a hopeless shot attempt or a terrible pass. Then, as 2009 dawned Murray stopped trying to play a traditional point guard role in relief of Mike Bibby, eliminated the shoot/pass dilemma from his mind, and focused on scoring.
Murray's assist rate dropped but his turnover rate dropped far more precipitously as he pulled off the tremendously valuable feat of simultaneously increasing his shot attempts and field goal percentage. Murray isn't a point guard. Once he stopped trying to be something he's not, he flourished being himself, backing down then shooting over smaller defenders and capitalizing in transition.
Now, it must be said, especially as thoughts turn from Flip Murray, commendable 2008-09 Atlanta Hawks sixth man, to Flip Murray, unrestricted free agent, that Murray flourished in no small part by being something he is not, or at least, had not been before his age-29 season: a high percentage shooter.
Murray augmented a typical two-point shooting season by shooting a lot of three-pointers (28.2% of his career total), making an unprecedented percentage of those shots, and shooting a career-high percentage from the free throw line.
Can he come close to doing this again?
I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Murray to make just under 45% of his two-point field goals and a bit over 70% of his free throws. His future three-point percentage, though, has to be considered a wild and vitally important variable about which we must consider the following:
And, if 2008-09 was simply a case of everything falling into place for six magical months, the Hawks surely don't want to postpone further the development of a long-term solution for the point guard position by waiting for a player who will never be a starting point guard in the NBA to recapture that magic. For the right price and with a strong backup plan in place Flip Murray could again be a useful bench player for the Hawks. Counting on him to anchor the bench as well as he did in 2008-09 through 2010 or beyond strikes me as a risky proposition.
After a hot start to the season, Murray struggled from mid-November to the end of 2008 his game marked most prominently by futile forays into the lane that would culminate with him losing possession of the ball in such a manner as to invariably open a debate over whether his final act of the possession had a been a hopeless shot attempt or a terrible pass. Then, as 2009 dawned Murray stopped trying to play a traditional point guard role in relief of Mike Bibby, eliminated the shoot/pass dilemma from his mind, and focused on scoring.
Murray's assist rate dropped but his turnover rate dropped far more precipitously as he pulled off the tremendously valuable feat of simultaneously increasing his shot attempts and field goal percentage. Murray isn't a point guard. Once he stopped trying to be something he's not, he flourished being himself, backing down then shooting over smaller defenders and capitalizing in transition.
Now, it must be said, especially as thoughts turn from Flip Murray, commendable 2008-09 Atlanta Hawks sixth man, to Flip Murray, unrestricted free agent, that Murray flourished in no small part by being something he is not, or at least, had not been before his age-29 season: a high percentage shooter.
| Season(s) | 2PTFG% | 2PTFGA | 3PTFG% | 3PTFGA | FT% | FTA |
| 2002-08 | 44.6% | 2266 | 27.9% | 616 | 71.3 | 783 |
| 2008-09 | 44.8% | 553 | 36.0% | 242 | 76.0 | 233 |
Murray augmented a typical two-point shooting season by shooting a lot of three-pointers (28.2% of his career total), making an unprecedented percentage of those shots, and shooting a career-high percentage from the free throw line.
Can he come close to doing this again?
I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Murray to make just under 45% of his two-point field goals and a bit over 70% of his free throws. His future three-point percentage, though, has to be considered a wild and vitally important variable about which we must consider the following:
- The limited evidence of 858 three-point attempts over seven seasons.
- Consecutive seasons posting a career-high three-point percentage (31.7% in 2007-08, 35.1% over the last two seasons).
- Assuming he made a higher percentage of his three-point shots last season for some tangible reason was it because he's improved as a shooter or because he got higher percentage looks, and, if it's the latter how much of that credit should go to Murray and how much to Mike Bibby and/or Joe Johnson?
- Murray set career high shooting marks in the playoffs.
- Those career highs were as such: 38.3 2PTFG%, 28.0 3PTFG%.
And, if 2008-09 was simply a case of everything falling into place for six magical months, the Hawks surely don't want to postpone further the development of a long-term solution for the point guard position by waiting for a player who will never be a starting point guard in the NBA to recapture that magic. For the right price and with a strong backup plan in place Flip Murray could again be a useful bench player for the Hawks. Counting on him to anchor the bench as well as he did in 2008-09 through 2010 or beyond strikes me as a risky proposition.
Monday, June 01, 2009
A Brief Draft Thought, Some Data, and Two Other Links
- Chad Ford polled 15 GMs and executives for the purposes of ranking the point guards in this draft class.
| Name | %Min | 2PTFG% | 3PTFG% | FT Rate | FT | Pts | A | TO | S | OR% | DR% |
| Collison | 78.5 | 55.8% | 39.4% | 32.8 | 89.7 | 28.7 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.9% | 7.9% |
| Flynn | 90.7 | 51.7% | 32.1% | 37.6 | 78.5 | 27.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.9% | 5.9% |
points, assists, turnovers, and steals are per 100 possessions
Collison's (slightly) bigger and a far better defender. I don't get it but that's could be because the composition of my body and mind has cause me to underrate hops, charisma, toughness, and leadership for the greater benefit of my psyche.
- Charles Bethea interviewed me at ATL Intel thus giving me a chance to talk about my mid- to late-90s alienation from Hawks fans in what I hope is a minimally alienating manner.
- Steals make scoring easier. (HT: Basketball-Reference.com Blog)
- "You don't trade for superstars. You draft them." Not if you're Billy Knight you don't. Let me reiterate: I don't envy Rick Sund this off-season.
2008-09 Season Review: Marvin Williams
Is Marvin Williams just a useful role player (albeit an improving one) or is he (like Al Horford) an underutilized offensive resource that might fuel future Hawks teams?
The bulk of the evidence of 2008-09 season suggests that he is the former. If this is the case, Williams' future with the team extends only as long as his cost remains relatively low. The Atlanta Hawks can't afford to/won't spend a lot of money for slightly above average production from a small forward. However, two games in February hint at the latter and lend support to the argument for moving the Hawks' offense away from Joe Johnson and his apprentices and toward a Williams-Horford-Johnson trident.
On February 4th in Minneapolis, Marvin Williams missed both of his three-point attempts and made just three of his seven two-point jump shots, but scored 23 points on 13 shots by converting three of four attempts at the rim and getting to the free throw line 14 times, making 11. Williams didn't win the game single-handedly (Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, and Kevin McHale each helped) but he (atypically) used more possessions than any other Hawks player, used them very efficiently, and, in doing so, led the Hawks, playing without their best player, to a rare road victory.
Two nights later he did it again in Charlotte against the seventh-best defensive team in the league. Williams struggled from the field: He made one of three three-point attempts, two of six attempts at the rim, and two of six two-point jumpers but made up for his unusually poor shooting* by getting to the free throw line 20 times, making 18 and thus scoring 29 points on 15 shots.
*Williams was a 49.2% shooter on two-point attempts, a 35.5% shooter on three-point attempts on the season.
Over the course of two games, Williams, a guy who typically used 13 possessions in 34 minutes a game, used 50 possessions in 82 minutes of playing time, scored 52 points on those possessions and led Atlanta, without Joe Johnson, to two of the 16 road victories they managed over the course of the season.
It's also just two games, and, who knows, maybe the lesson to be taken from them is that Mike Bibby was even more essential to the offense than already assumed. I strongly suspect that Marvin Williams isn't a guy a successful team builds its offense around but that doesn't mean he should settle for scraps especially considering the attacking options his inside/outside game* would give a head coach who treated options as useful tactical tools rather than a gift from The Giant Purple Snorklewacker.
*Williams attempted 34 free throws in those two games as the primary offensive option. 34 free throw attempts would constitute 9.4% of Joe Johnson's season total. Death to fall-aways! Long live free points!.
Friday, May 29, 2009
A Few Off-Season Links
- Graydon Gordian and Timothy Varner of 48 Minutes of Hell are in Chicago covering the draft combine. Interviews with Sam Young and Omri Casspi are up as of this morning with more to come.
- Draft Express is in Chicago as well.
- Andy Katz, in his inimitable style*, covers the bases on some guys who may or may not stay in the draft.
- At Celtics Hub, Zach Lowe examines the cost and benefits of the Celtics acquiring Josh Childress. Check it out and agree or disagree with my assessment of his proposal either here or there.
- Chad Ford's second mock draft (Insider) has the Hawks taking Ty Lawson.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: Al Horford
Al Horford's season is fairly straightforward to recap: He's a delight to watch on both ends of the floor, he's not a big enough part of the offense, and that fact combined with the time he missed due to injury might have obscured the encouraging and, one hopes, significant improvements he made in his second year in the league.
While essentially repeating his rookie production in terms of FT%, DR%, and S%, Horford improved his production in the following areas...
Scoring: 12.4 Pts/36 minutes, up from 11.6 Pts/36 minutes
FG%: 52.5%, up from 49.9%
FT Rate: 25.1, up from 23.2
A%: 11.9%, up from 7.9%
TO%: 13.1%, down from 15.3%
BS%: 3.3%, up from 2.2%
stats courtesy Basketball-Reference.com
I think the increase in scoring is most impressive as his usage rate didn't increase much: up from 16% to 16.4% and using 16.4% of the team's possessions puts Horford in line with Zaza Pachulia and Acie Law IV (both had 2008-09 usage rates of 16.3%). Yes, Al Horford is, relatively speaking, an equal part of the team's offense as his backup and the team's third string point guard. Unless he shared the court with Maurice Evans or, on very rare instances (138 minutes over the course of the season), Solomon Jones, Al Horford was clearly the Hawks' fifth offensive option.
Usage Rate, 2008-09 Atlanta Hawks
| Player | USG% |
| Johnson | 26.6% |
| Murray | 24.3% |
| Smith | 22.6% |
| Bibby | 20.6% |
| Williams | 18.2% |
| Horford | 16.4% |
| Pachulia | 16.3% |
| Evans | 14.2% |
Al Horford didn't improve his numbers because his team made better or more frequent use* of him. Al Horford improved because he improved his skills and decision-making. I'm worried about the long-term production of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and (if they return) Mike Bibby and Flip Murray, but I'm confident that Al Horford gives the Hawks a fairly untapped offensive resource which could build upon his solid rebounding and defensive play to create an excellent NBA player. He's the closest thing to an untouchable player on the roster and the most likely member of the current roster to be on a Hawks team that reaches the Eastern Conference finals should that accomplishment ever come to pass.
*Were I sufficiently resourced and productive, I'd love to attempt to figure out how many of those possessions Horford did get to use came as a result of grabbing an offensive rebound or other manner of loose ball rather than as a result of a set play. There was more than one night that the Hawks' offense looked best for five-second stretches where Horford got the ball unexpectedly and hap, in that unscripted moment, the opportunity to use his skills either to get to the basket or find a wide open teammate. I suspect it's not a significant amount over the course of 82 games, not least of which because he got to significantly fewer offensive rebounds in his sophomore season (2008-09 OR%: 7.6%, 2007-08 OR%: 11.4%) but anecdotally it stokes one's desire to see Horford take on a greater offensive role both as a scorer and a passer.
Hawks Blogging Awards
The Human Highlight Blog, in a naked appeal for links, honors the best of the Hawks blogosphere. Ribbing and false humility aside, I genuinely enjoy everyone with the gumption and invention to write about this team on a consistent basis. Not a poser in the group.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: Josh Smith
Josh Smith is a player of non-integrated* parts. Similarly non-integrated is this post which may, in its very structure, reveal more about my conflicted feelings about Smith than do its words.
*A different (better?) season review would explore the issue of whether his failure to integrate his skills into a cohesive whole is itself a fool's errand and this effort to normalize himself under the rubric of NBA power forward is, in fact, the root cause of his continued limitations.
Part 1: How Josh Smith, the shooter, hurts Josh Smith, the offensive player.
Josh Smith has two problems as a field goal shooter: shot selection and small hands. The latter, which limits his effectiveness when attempting to finish around the rim, compounds the eminently correctable damage of the former.
Scroll to the bottom of this link to 82games.com to see that Josh Smith made a lower percentage of his two-point jump shots than any other player in the NBA (with at least 100 attempts). Despite this, Smith took 305 two-point jump shots. The uncomfortable fact of the matter is that this was, overall, a good jump shooting season for Josh Smith, both in terms of abstinence and success. He took fewer jump shots as a percentage of his field goal attempts than any other season in his career and posted the second-best eFG% (boosted by an near-career high 29.9 3PTFG%) on jump shots of his career.
courtesy 82games.com
Though Smith should bear the brunt of the criticism for his shot selection he cannot bear it all. The Hawks play at a pace suited for their slower, older guards rather than their faster, younger frontcourt trio. Al Horford and Marvin Williams both have skills more adaptable to halfcourt game than does Smith who is unquestionably the most diminished of the trio when forced to face a set defense.
Furthermore, Mike Woodson runs the halfcourt offense through his older, slower guards most often by attempting to isolate them. This creates cascading problems for the halfcourt offense. First, keeping Josh Smith 20 feet from the basket, though it nominally spaces the floor, really just allows the opposing team to use Smith's defender to run at or hedge toward the ball without repercussion. This stymies the initial offense and, too often, results in Smith receiving the ball outside his range with little time left on the shot clock, staring two bad options (shoot or penetrate into traffic) in the face.
Part 2: How Josh Smith largely forfeits the benefit of the doubt.
Now, all that being said, one must also account for Smith's unwillingness to cut into space/toward the basket as the initial offensive set stalls and his diminishing impact on the offensive glass as contributing factors in his offensive struggles.
The league average OR% for teams last season was 26.7%. Not adjusting for position, that makes the league average OR% for a player 5.3%. A player as athletic and unguarded as Smith certainly ought to make a greater impact on the offensive glass.
This is where excuses for Smith break down. One, at times, wishes to be sympathetic to Smith for the circumstances of his mis-use and, perhaps, some of his terrible shot attempts do come as a result of frustration from not being used in a way that maximizes* his physical gifts but, at the same time, Smith does not make the necessary effort to maximize his gifts in ways under his complete control.
*Though, if he were a better defensive rebounder that would help create more transition opportunities for the Hawks.
This lack of effort manifests itself even more obviously during his incessant whining to officials over slights both real and perceived which has evolved from an irritant into a fixation that costs his teams the equity of five-on-five possessions on an increasingly regular basis.
Part 3: How Josh Smith plays above average defense from behind the beat.
Josh Smith opened the season by playing three brilliant defensive games. He consistently played good position defense without sacrificing the wonderful help defense for which he is popularly known. In the first quarter of the fourth game he severely sprained his ankle and missed the next month.
Upon his return, we got (if possible) a fuller understanding of how much his athleticism masked poor fundamental defensive skills, both physical and mental. It wasn't just that he couldn't block shots at his usual, excellent rate. Nor was it any secret that he's always been incapable of getting in a good defensive stance when isolated on the perimeter or that, off the ball, he tends to lose track of his responsibility while paying too much attention to the ball or that he prefers to chase the defensive rebound rather than blocking out a potential offensive rebounder. It was a revelation to see just how often and how easily Smith, temporarily robbed of the ability to recover from lazy footwork or a fruitless steal attempt, gets beat when defending a player with the ball in either mid-range or post position.
At full strength, Josh Smith can get away with getting beat as his ability to recover to block or alter a shot from behind creates a very real consideration for an offensive player. Watching him at less than full strength, one begins to believe that he's unprepared for, if not outright surprised by, almost every action on the court. This limitation both tempers one's hopes for him ever to become a franchise player and increases one's appreciation for his physical gifts. Josh Smith is so supremely athletic that playing against the best athletes in the world his athleticism stands out despite his inability to anticipate what's coming.
Part 4: How Josh Smith leaves a nagging doubt.
The nagging doubt that accompanies this renewed appreciation is that Josh Smith will struggle mightily to age gracefully thus bringing to three the number of 2008-09 Hawks' starters Rick Sund might be prudent to look to divest himself of sooner rather than later.
*A different (better?) season review would explore the issue of whether his failure to integrate his skills into a cohesive whole is itself a fool's errand and this effort to normalize himself under the rubric of NBA power forward is, in fact, the root cause of his continued limitations.
Part 1: How Josh Smith, the shooter, hurts Josh Smith, the offensive player.
Josh Smith has two problems as a field goal shooter: shot selection and small hands. The latter, which limits his effectiveness when attempting to finish around the rim, compounds the eminently correctable damage of the former.
Scroll to the bottom of this link to 82games.com to see that Josh Smith made a lower percentage of his two-point jump shots than any other player in the NBA (with at least 100 attempts). Despite this, Smith took 305 two-point jump shots. The uncomfortable fact of the matter is that this was, overall, a good jump shooting season for Josh Smith, both in terms of abstinence and success. He took fewer jump shots as a percentage of his field goal attempts than any other season in his career and posted the second-best eFG% (boosted by an near-career high 29.9 3PTFG%) on jump shots of his career.
| Team | Jump Shots/FGA | eFG% |
| 04-05 | 49% | 27.7% |
| 05-06 | 62% | 36.3% |
| 06-07 | 51% | 31.6% |
| 07-08 | 48% | 30.7% |
| 08-09 | 47% | 34.9% |
courtesy 82games.com
Though Smith should bear the brunt of the criticism for his shot selection he cannot bear it all. The Hawks play at a pace suited for their slower, older guards rather than their faster, younger frontcourt trio. Al Horford and Marvin Williams both have skills more adaptable to halfcourt game than does Smith who is unquestionably the most diminished of the trio when forced to face a set defense.
Furthermore, Mike Woodson runs the halfcourt offense through his older, slower guards most often by attempting to isolate them. This creates cascading problems for the halfcourt offense. First, keeping Josh Smith 20 feet from the basket, though it nominally spaces the floor, really just allows the opposing team to use Smith's defender to run at or hedge toward the ball without repercussion. This stymies the initial offense and, too often, results in Smith receiving the ball outside his range with little time left on the shot clock, staring two bad options (shoot or penetrate into traffic) in the face.
Part 2: How Josh Smith largely forfeits the benefit of the doubt.
Now, all that being said, one must also account for Smith's unwillingness to cut into space/toward the basket as the initial offensive set stalls and his diminishing impact on the offensive glass as contributing factors in his offensive struggles.
| Season | OR% |
| 04-05 | 7.9% |
| 05-06 | 8.0% |
| 06-07 | 7.4% |
| 07-08 | 6.6% |
| 08-09 | 6.5% |
The league average OR% for teams last season was 26.7%. Not adjusting for position, that makes the league average OR% for a player 5.3%. A player as athletic and unguarded as Smith certainly ought to make a greater impact on the offensive glass.
This is where excuses for Smith break down. One, at times, wishes to be sympathetic to Smith for the circumstances of his mis-use and, perhaps, some of his terrible shot attempts do come as a result of frustration from not being used in a way that maximizes* his physical gifts but, at the same time, Smith does not make the necessary effort to maximize his gifts in ways under his complete control.
*Though, if he were a better defensive rebounder that would help create more transition opportunities for the Hawks.
This lack of effort manifests itself even more obviously during his incessant whining to officials over slights both real and perceived which has evolved from an irritant into a fixation that costs his teams the equity of five-on-five possessions on an increasingly regular basis.
Part 3: How Josh Smith plays above average defense from behind the beat.
Josh Smith opened the season by playing three brilliant defensive games. He consistently played good position defense without sacrificing the wonderful help defense for which he is popularly known. In the first quarter of the fourth game he severely sprained his ankle and missed the next month.
Upon his return, we got (if possible) a fuller understanding of how much his athleticism masked poor fundamental defensive skills, both physical and mental. It wasn't just that he couldn't block shots at his usual, excellent rate. Nor was it any secret that he's always been incapable of getting in a good defensive stance when isolated on the perimeter or that, off the ball, he tends to lose track of his responsibility while paying too much attention to the ball or that he prefers to chase the defensive rebound rather than blocking out a potential offensive rebounder. It was a revelation to see just how often and how easily Smith, temporarily robbed of the ability to recover from lazy footwork or a fruitless steal attempt, gets beat when defending a player with the ball in either mid-range or post position.
At full strength, Josh Smith can get away with getting beat as his ability to recover to block or alter a shot from behind creates a very real consideration for an offensive player. Watching him at less than full strength, one begins to believe that he's unprepared for, if not outright surprised by, almost every action on the court. This limitation both tempers one's hopes for him ever to become a franchise player and increases one's appreciation for his physical gifts. Josh Smith is so supremely athletic that playing against the best athletes in the world his athleticism stands out despite his inability to anticipate what's coming.
Part 4: How Josh Smith leaves a nagging doubt.
The nagging doubt that accompanies this renewed appreciation is that Josh Smith will struggle mightily to age gracefully thus bringing to three the number of 2008-09 Hawks' starters Rick Sund might be prudent to look to divest himself of sooner rather than later.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
2008-09 Season Review: Mike Bibby
Mike Bibby has improved the Hawks during his season-and-a-half in Atlanta. Considering his defensive limitations and giving further consideration to the team's inability to minimize the damage caused by those limitations one must conclude, even after accounting for the established level of his predecessors, that Mike Bibby is, 11 years into his NBA career, still a skilled and intelligent offensive player.
Mike Bibby at Basketball-Reference.com
Bibby's shooting percentages last season were right in line with his age 24 through age 27 seasons in Sacramento. Likely due to a combination of playing alongside Joe Johnson and the aging process, both his assist and usage rates were down from those years, but, with his ball-handling responsibilities lessened, he posted a career low turnover rate. Now, it's fair to be skeptical about repeating those rates. His age 30 season was an improvement over both his age 28 and 29* seasons and it was a contract year.
*He put up better numbers playing for the Hawks than for the Kings last season though that may have more to do with his health than the relative merits of his skills suiting the respective offenses and teammates.
On the latter point, Atlanta's biggest off-season decision, in terms of cost as well as short- and long-term roster construction is what to do with Mike Bibby? Give him a firm handshake, a hearty clap on the back, thank him for his help, and let him leave in search of the best contract for his immediate and long-term future? Or do you make the effort to find a mutually beneficial contract length and price, cling to Bibby as a security blanket for the offense, and acquire a useful and complementary backup to use on the nights where Bibby's offensive ability can't make up for his defensive limitations?
Like I said, it's a narrow decision either way and probably the deciding factors will be the price and length of the contract that Bibby feels he needs and/or deserves. But, in making the decision, one can't ignore Mike Woodson's prejudice against young point guards*, his prejudice against point guards who aren't best served by hanging around the perimeter shooting long jumpers, Acie Law IV's apparent lack of future with the organization, Flip Murray's unrestricted free agency, the depth of point guards in the draft class, the chance that DeJuan Blair is available at 19, ownership's financial restrictions, and the organization's generally risk-averse** nature. None of those complicating issues are truly absolute and Rick Sund can exercise no control over some of them. but, pressed to answer, I, while acknowledging the impracticality*** of this preference, advocate letting Bibby leave, acquiring one proven yet affordable point guard in free agency, and drafting a point guard whose skill set tends toward defense and three-point shooting (Eric Maynor or Darren Collison being most likely at 19). Acquiring a potential long-term solution at the point before the draft should give the Hawks greater flexibility in the draft either at the 19th spot (especially if Blair or Jrue Holiday are available), trading up (most likely by using Childress's rights), or by trading down and still getting a solid, polished point guard (Collison) while acquiring some additional asset(s).
*Royal Ivey sort of but not really serving as an exception to this rule since he was to real point guards what Mario West is to real defensive specialists.
**Not that I'm automatically agreeing with the organization's risk assessment in this or many other (re-signing Mike Woodson, saving money on extensions for Joshes Childress and Smith, saving money on the end of the bench, burying Acie Law IV and running Joe Johnson into the ground to win a couple more games) cases. I think re-signing Bibby at whatever is arguably more risky than using greater resources to attempt to acquire one of Ramon Sessions, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack in free agency or trade for, say, Mike Conley, Jr. or one of Portland's surplus point guards.
***I advocated the Hawks draft a point guard (either at their original slot or after trading down) in the 2005 and 2006 drafts, both of which had multiple useful point guards available at various stages of the first round. Obviously that didn't happen either year as Billy Knight waited for a relatively weak class of point guards to address (though ultimately, it was not addressed at all) the team's long-standing weakness.
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