Monday, January 03, 2011

The Atlanta Hawks Have Some Good Players

Per Basketball-Reference.com, players who qualify for the FG% title with a True Shooting Percentage below 50% and a Usage Rate of 25% or more:

NameTS%Usg%Team WinPct
Brandon Jennings49.926.4.419
JJ Hickson49.725.235
Gilbert Arenas49.726.4.355
Joe Johnson49.125.6.611
Mo Williams48.726.8.235
DeMarcus Cousins47.626.2.226
Andray Blatche47.325.2.250
Tyreke Evans44.626.1.226

NOTE: I've calculated the Team Winning Percentage for Gilbert Arenas by combining the record of the Washington Wizards and the Orlando Magic for the time he's played with either team.

One obvious thing that separates the Hawks from the Cavaliers, Wizards, and Kings is the presence of just one of their players on this list. Another is that Johnson (TO%: 8.8) turns the ball over far less often than any of the other players on this list. Jennings is next best in that regard, turning the ball over on 12% of the possessions he uses. This is really how Johnson is holding on to some semblance of offensive value while playing with a bum elbow. For example, Arenas (TO%: 17.2) has turned the ball over almost twice as often as Johnson so far this season.

Rounding out the offensive picture, three players on the list (Williams, Jennings, and Arenas) have a higher assist rate than Johnson this season. All but Williams and Arenas have a higher offensive rebound rate than Johnson.

If you were to lower the Usage Rate threshold to 18%, Trevor Ariza (46.8 TS%) would join Johnson as the only other player qualified for the FG% title with a TS% under 50 who plays for a team with a winning record.

5 comments:

Karibo said...

Bret,
Your last 3 postings show your overall negativity towards the Hawks present and future. I am not sure I agree with you.
So basically,
1.The Hawks stand almost ZERO chance of home court in the first round.
2. Joe Johnson sucks
3. The Hawks 2nd round picks sucks !!

Bret LaGree said...

Karibo --

Your comment shows your overall negativity toward addressing factual material. I am not sure I agree with you.
So basically,
1.The Hawks are 19-5 against teams with losing records and 3-9 against teams with winning records and John Hollinger doesn't project the Hawks to earn a top-4 seed.
2. Despite Joe Johnson posting a combination of shot volume and scoring efficiency typical of players on sub-.500 teams, the Hawks are winning more than 60% of their games.
3. The Hawks' 2nd round picks aren't ready to contribute in the NBA.

Please feel free to point my repeated use of "sucks" to paint a word picture of the station of the Atlanta Hawks players and franchise rather than research and argument.

I invite you to engage in the latter. Thanks for reading.

Karibo said...

Hollinger whose projections on the Hawks have been dead wrong for 3 straight years???

Aaron said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Aaron said...

I don't think Bret is referring to Hollinger's completely subjective preseason rankings, but his "playoff odds rankings." I watched the latter all season long for each of the past two seasons, and by about the 1/3rd mark of each season, they became quite useful.

Jeff Sagarin has had similar rankings for what seems like forever, and they're quite useful, too.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1011.htm