Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Early Returns On Continuing Themes, Part 1

It's far too early from on/off data from this season to contain much meaning but I thought I'd look at players and combinations of players that have been discussed previously with an eye at determining if anything might be changing.

All data courtesy of BasketballValue.com

1) Mike Bibby is capable defensively if Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford are all on the floor. If they're not all on the floor, Bibby is overwhelmed.

It was true last season:

BibbyPossPtsDef Eff
w/ all three2359Pts103.2
w/o any of the three1676Pts109.2

And it's true so far this season:

BibbyPossPtsDef Eff
w/ all three24524298.8
w/o any of the three354386109

2) Marvin Williams has not, in limited minutes, been a defensive savior at small forward.

Last season, the Hawks were much better defensively when Marvin Williams played small forward:

Williams 09-10
PossPtsDef Eff
Williams at 341134191101.9
anyone else at 333193764113.4

The difference is far smaller so far this season:

Williams 10-11
PossPtsDef Eff
Williams at 3389418107.5
anyone else at 3623672107.9

One possible explanation is that Larry Drew is only using Marvin Williams at the 3. Last season, Williams played 11.66% of his defensive possessions at other positions and the Hawks allowed almost 8 more points per 100 possession with Williams on the court but not playing the 3. So far this season, Williams has played just 16 defensive possessions (3.95%) at other positions and the Hawks are allowing 11.3 more points per 100 possession with Williams on the court but not playing the 3.

3) Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia play well together even if they play together rarely.

Pachulia & Horford
Off EffPossDef EffPoss+/-

A second post, covering different players and combinations will appear later in the week.


jrauch said...

I still don't understand why we haven't seen more of the Zaza/Al combo, given this is something LD touted in the preseason as a change from the old regime.

Is it Al's phantom foul trouble? A reluctance to move Smoove to the 3 for significant minutes?

I really don't get it.

Bret LaGree said...

One bad reason for not playing Al and Zaza together will be addressed in Part 2. Not to ruin the surprise, but it rhymes with "mosh scowl."