Friday, April 16, 2010

More Of What The Numbers Can Tell Us About The Series

Delving further, this time into what the numbers can tell us about the playoff series between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee Bucks on the season as whole, with John Salmons, and before the trade for Salmons.

First the offense:

NamePossOff EffeFG%FT RateOR%TO%
with Salmons88.11.08348.819.226.414.5
before Salmons91.41.0594817.526.114.4

And the defense:

NamePossDef EffeFG%FT RateOR%TO%
with Salmons88.11.0264732.22416.3
before Salmons91.41.06149.536.223.417

The Hawks have five units that played at least 115 minutes together this season. Four of those five outscored their opponents. The three units that played together the most each outscored opponents by at least five points per 100 possessions.

UnitMinOff EffDef EffDiff
Bibby/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford1169109.1103.6+5.5
Bibby/Crawford/Johnson/Josh Smith/Horford406120.7108.9+11.8
Crawford/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford356119.1108.9+10.2
Teague/Crawford/Evans/Joe Smith/Pachulia146109111.6-2.6
Crawford/Johnson/Evans/Josh Smith/Horford115117.7116.1+1.6

You may have noticed that those units including Jamal Crawford give up a lot more points than does the starting lineup. Here's Crawford's on/off numbers for the season:

Crawford 09-10Off EffDef EffDiff
on court113.3109+4.3
off court109.5103.8+5.7

Crawford's on court numbers might be hurt by the volume of minutes he plays in the fourth quarter* as it includes both the team's worst struggles (both offensively and defensively) and garbage time.

*Crawford led the league, playing 864 minutes of fourth quarters this season. Jason Terry was second with 781. (Courtesy ESPN Stats and Information)

Milwaukee hasn't played any one unit more than 258 minutes this season. Their expected starting lineup for the playoffs has played just under 105 minutes together. Here are Milwaukee's five most used units.

UnitMinOff EffDef EffDiff
Jennings/Delfino/Salmons/Mbah a Moute/Bogut258105.290.9+14.3
Jennings/Bell/Delfino/Mbah a Moute/Bogut178107.1101.2+5.9
Jennings/Delfino/Salmons/Mbah a Moute/Thomas105110.2116.7-6.5

Here are Milwaukee's five most used units consisting only of players that available for the series:

UnitMinOff EffDef EffDiff
Jennings/Delfino/Salmons/Mbah a Moute/Thomas105110.2116.7-6.5

It's a good thing the Hawks play a certain style of basketball regardless of the opposition. There's simply not much tape on the short-handed Bucks to watch in order to formulate a game plan specific to their current makeup.

One possible downside of the Hawks playing a certain style of basketball regardless of the opposition is the specter of Scott Skiles figuring out a way to stifle Atlanta's isolation offense. The Bucks haven't stopped Joe Johnson yet this season (27.3 PPG, 56.1 TS% in the three games) but they are unlikely to see him used in a wide variety of sets. Only Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James had more plays run for them in isolation than Johnson and of the top five players in the league is isolation plays, Johnson was fifth at creating points off of isolations.

NamePlaysPts per Play
Carmelo Anthony7290.91
LeBron James6600.97
Joe Johnson6030.88
Kevin Durant5910.98
Kobe Bryant5790.95

(Courtesy ESPN Stats and Information)

At, Neil Paine has a useful capsule preview comparing the two teams.

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