TrueHoop NCAA Tournament Backet Group

Henry Abbott's set up a group at the big web site. Go here if you wish to join. I have.

For those of you who wish to augment tonight's Hawks/Kings encounter by preparing for the 2011 NBA Draft, Morehead State's Kenneth Faried is worth watching in tonight's NCAA Tournament Play-In game.

DraftExpress ranks Faried the 23rd-best Sophomore in the land. Faried's an undersized (6-8, 215) center in a low-major conference but his defensive ability (4.1 blocks and 3.9 steals per 100 possessions this season) and rebounding (16.8/32.9 OR%/DR%*) suggest he has a decent chance to make a successful transition to the NBA as, at the least, a 3/4 hybrid off the bench.

*That's 6th- and 2nd-best in country (per kenpom.com), respectively, and down slightly from his freshman year rankings of 1st and 4th.

Q&A With Seth Davis On the Subject of His New Book

Yesterday, I reviewed the new book, When March Went Mad: The Game That Transformed Basketball by Seth Davis (pictured, right) of SI.com and CBS. Today, I've got a brief interview with the author* to share.

*I appreciate him taking the time to answer my questions, even the ones The New York Times' Quad Blog scooped me on over the weekend.

HOOPINION: I assume you wished to interview both Larry Bird and Magic Johnson for the book. Why did neither choose to be involved with the book? At what point in the writing process did you resolve yourself to their non-involvement? Did their non-involvement change the writing of the book in any way?

SETH DAVIS: Yes, I wanted to interview those guys, but they are at a point in their lives where they are not giving this stuff away for free. I can totally understand that, and while I was disappointed I can honestly say that I don’t think the book suffered from it. The irony is, editorially those were the guys I needed the least, since they have both written autobiographies and had books written about them, not to mention the scores of interviews they have already given on this subject. Not having their participation also liberated me to write a little more critically about them than I would have otherwise.

HOOPINION: Was there anyone else you wished to but were unable to interview?

SETH DAVIS: The only people I really wanted to interview but couldn’t were the ones who are no longer alive. I feel very fortunate that most of the main principals are still around and they all had great stories to tell.

HOOPINION: One of the best things about the book is the amount of detail you provide about the games described. Could you please provide some background on how you acquired tapes for so many 30-year-old games?

SETH DAVIS: The schools provided much of the game videos. Bill Hodges also had a bunch of old game tapes, and one of his students transferred them onto DVDs for me. Magic’s high school coach, George Fox, had the video of the press conference where Magic announced he was attending Michigan State . And a local sportscaster in Terre Haute got me the video of Bird’s retirement ceremony a few years ago that served as the dramatic final scene in the book.

HOOPINION: The book's structure reminds me of John Feinstein's A Season Inside (though obviously with a narrower focus and thus greater depth). Was that book a conscious influence on you? Were there any other books that provided inspiration as to how to write or structure When March Went Mad?

SETH DAVIS: I certainly read that book, but that was a little different in that it was a contemporary account as opposed to a historical one. A better Feinstein comparison might be Forever's Team, which is about the 1978 Duke team that was the national runner-up, but again, that was about one team and mine was about two. The structure of this book was pretty unusual because it was really two books that converged into one. Thank god I had a phenomenal editor, Paul Golob, who really guided me through the organization of all this material.

HOOPINION: Frank Deford's blurb reads, in part, "Seth Davis reminds us what fun it used to be when we could still be surprised, when a whole sport could be turned upside down, right before our wondering eyes." How do you agree and how do you disagree with DeFord that greater access to games, players, and coaches has changed the way or even lessened the degree to which people enjoy sports in general and college basketball in particular?

SETH DAVIS: Well, Frank is a little older than I am, so he might be a little more wistful about it, but I certainly understand the point he is making. It’s my job to ruin the mystery in college basketball. I try to know everything there is to know about what’s going on, but back then, many of the people watching this game were seeing Magic and Bird play for the very first time. That is a very special thing, but the moment has passed and it’s not coming back.

HOOPINION: How good does it feel to have Frank Deford blurb your book?

SETH DAVIS: What a beautiful question! (ed. note--Thank you.) I’m told that blurbs are of marginal value, but while we were bandying about the different names of people we wanted to ask, the only one I felt strongly about was Deford. I don’t know him all that well, but we obviously share a common heritage with Sports Illustrated. So to you answer your question, it feels the same as it would feel to have Mozart tell me I’m a darn good piano player.

Book Review: When March Went Mad

WHEN MARCH WENT MAD: THE GAME THAT TRANSFORMED BASKETBALL
by Seth Davis

(buy the book)

On the eve of the 30th Anniversary of the NCAA Tournament championship game between Michigan State, led there by (as he was so often and so thoroughly referred to then) Earvin "Magic" Johnson, and Indiana State, carried there by Larry Bird, Seth Davis gives the (still) highest-rated championship game in history the book-length treatment. The championship game itself was neither well-played nor close enough to carry a book on its own so Davis soundly chose not to just recount the story of the season (though he does that well) but also to extend the backstory to the recruitment of Bird and Johnson* as well as describing how many of their teammates got to Indiana State and Michigan State, respectively.

*The 30-year-old tales of recruiting are simultaneously quaint and suggestive of how common extra benefits were in those days.

Neither Bird nor Johnson spoke with Davis for the book; not that there's a lack of source material to draw on regarding either's biography. Rather than have the absence of their first-person accounts limit the scope of the book, Davis allows himself more room to sketch portraits of the two coaches: Jud Heathcote and Bill Hodges. Davis obviously spent a lot of time talking to both men and it's period-appropriate that the book be, at times, dominated by the head coaches as much as the college game often was in the pre-shot clock era.

Hodges has the more interesting story, getting the Indiana State job before the season only after head coach Bob King suffered a brain aneurysm. Davis argues convincingly that Hodges' remarkable success in his initial season ultimately derailed his coaching career as Hodges, for reasons both in and out of his control, failed, with his subsequent Indiana State teams, to remain competitive on a national level.

Heathcote, who coached Michigan State for 20 years, is the more familiar figure but Davis makes full use of Heathcote's sarcastic wit* and storytelling acumen.

*Though Davis does fall into a trap all too typical of writers of sports books by not trusting readers to recognize Heathcote's sarcasm even in context and, thus, grinding a paragraph to a halt to reassure the reader that the immediately preceding quote was Heathcote being funny rather than an asshole.

Best of all for a serious basketball fan, Davis watched tape of as many Sycamore and Spartan games as possible from the 1978-79 season and ably augments the contemporary accounts with his own observations. In this respect and without making a big deal about it, Davis succeeds in bridging the gap between then, when Bird and Johnson were new and their games were unusual and magnificent enough to inspire mixed-up confusion as often as adoration, and now, when their games are iconic and revered.

It's jarring for someone my age (first basketball memory: the 1982 NCAA Championship Game) to read period accounts which are skeptical and/or critical of the young Bird and Johnson. To his credit, Davis doesn't retroactively score scornful points* against those who wrote what would prove to be profoundly wrong opinions about two of the greatest basketball players** ever to live, rather he uses them to accurately re-create the tenor of the time.

*Though he does, with a friendly manner, establish how long-standing his former CBS colleague Billy Packer's dismissive skepticism of college basketball teams from non-power conferences is.

**It's also useful to remember that neither player was finished developing as a basketball player. Bird turned the ball over 17 times in the '79 Final Four.

Similarly, Davis succeeds in describing how different college basketball was 30 years ago without (as Frank Deford unfortunately does in his blurb for the book) making a value judgment about one era versus the other. I think this quality speaks to Davis' interest in and appreciation of college basketball. He neither dismisses the palpable excitement of the time, when, for most people, Larry Bird existed as more myth than (young) man for much of the season nor passes up the opportunity to gather and process as much information as possible to tell the most complete version he can of the 1978-79 basketball seasons for these two teams.

Hoopinion Reader(s)

You are cordially invited to HackTheBracket for the duration of the NCAA Tournament.

Status of my at-risk assumptions

I define the at-risk games I'm tracking as follows: all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams. Obviously, until March 11th, I don't know exactly which teams fit the third of those criteria. So I make assumptions and try to keep those assumptions as conservative as possible.

As of today, I'm including home wins over the following teams in at-risk profiles: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Kansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Southern Illinois, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Butler, Air Force, Memphis, Nevada, and Winthrop.

Less than a month out, those are the locks per my determination and subject to change.

Down to cases: The WCC

Santa Clara won in Spokane last night, giving the Broncos a one-game lead over Gonzaga in the WCC regular season title race.

Gonzaga has a home game against Portland and road games @San Francisco and @San Diego to finish the season. Santa Clara gets San Diego at home before finishing @Pepperdine and @Loyola Marymount.

Santa Clara lost to Loyola Marymount at home in January, a result that appears to be Gonzaga's last, best hope to get a share of the conference title.

Having no idea how the tie-breaker for seeding in WCC Conference Tournament would work in the case of co-champions who split their regular season meetings (with Santa Clara a single point per 100 possessions to the good over the two games), let's speculate on which team would be favored to gain the WCC's automatic bid.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Gonzaga	6-9	107	110	-3
vs. WCC	8-3	112	96	+16

Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), @Santa Clara (+13), @Portland (+21), @Stanford (+4), @Pepperdine (+37)

Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14), vs. Georgia (-13), vs. Duke (-19), vs. Nevada (-12), @Virginia (-32), @St. Mary's (-7), @Loyola-Marymount (-8), Santa Clara (-14)

Gonzaga wouldn't figure to have much of a chance hosting Memphis this Saturday with Josh Heytvelt. In the two games without him, they've barely topped a point per possession offensively. If Heytvelt is out for the rest of the year, I seriously doubt the selection committee takes Gonzaga's at-large bid seriously.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Santa Clara	8-7	97	97	0
vs. WCC	9-2	108	94	+14

Wins: vs. Alabama State (+43), @Pacific (+27), @Stanford (+24), @San Diego (+17), @San Francisco (+6), @St. Mary's (+9), @Portland (+39), @Gonzaga (+14)

Losses: @Cal (-36), Nevada (-16), @Missouri State (-37), @Kentucky (-18), Air Force (-58), Gonzaga (-13), Loyola-Marymount (-4)

Santa Clara has almost caught Gonzaga in the WCC average efficiency margin standings, and, though they have an even worse resume for an at-large bid than does Gonzaga, I think they would have to be favored over a Heytvelt-less Zags squad in the WCC Tournament.

If they can't avenge their home loss to Loyola Marymount, though, I'd probably waffle on my speculative outcome.

Down to cases: Louisville

At 8-4 in Big East play and with home games remaining against St. John's and Seton Hall, Louisville has to be favored to win at least 10 conference games. Both of their remaining road games (@Marquette, @UConn) are winnable, if unlikely.

As of today, Louisville's at-risk profile looks like this:

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Louisville	4-8	101	103	-2
vs. Big East	8-4	108	98	+10

Wins: @South Florida (+39), @DePaul (+13), @Cincinnati (+24), @Pittsburgh (+16)

Losses: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12), @Villanova (-8), Georgetown (-17)

Last night's convincing win @Pittsburgh at least puts Louisville on the bubble. Though they're third in the Big East in average efficiency margin, they certainly don't have the third-best non-conference performance to go along with that. They figure to need to win at least one game on the road and/or in the Big East Tournament to separate themselves from the mass of mediocre big conference teams that will contend for the final at-large bids. They're playing better than the likes of Oregon, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Illinois, and Oklahoma State at this point in the season, but it sure would have helped to beat Dayton or UMass.

Down to cases: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are 18-6, 5-5 in Big 12 play. Half of their wins are by 10 or fewer points per 100 possessions. Only one of their losses has been that narrow.

The at-risk profiles are designed to measure team quality looking forward. It is entirely appropriate that Oklahoma State get credit with the selection committee for all those close wins when considering their prospects for an at-large bid. However, as of last Saturday, Andy Glockner of ESPN.com still listed the Cowboys as a "lock" to make the NCAA Tournament. This despite being outscored by eight points per 100 possessions in conference play through eight games. (Following the narrow win over Texas Tech and the blowout loss at Texas, the Cowboys are now being outscored by ten points per 100 possessions against Big 12 opposition.)

The most likely final conference record for the Cowboys is 8-8. They have home games remaining against Missouri, Texas A&M, and Kansas State. They travel to Texas Tech, Baylor, and Nebraska. Considering that Oklahoma State has struggled to beat Baylor (+7), Texas (+5), Oklahoma (+9), and Texas Tech (+2) at home and has yet to win a road game in conference play they could realistically lose any of those games.

This is a team on the tournament bubble. Should they manage to split their final 6 games, they may well benefit from getting to play on Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament with its accompanying chance to guarantee a .500 record in conference play.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma St	5-6	98	106	-8
vs. Big 12	5-5	98	108	-10

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33), vs. Pittsburgh (+4)

Losses: vs. Tennessee (-5), @Kansas (-38), @Texas A&M (-26), @Colorado (-21), @Oklahoma (-14), @Texas (-39)