Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Down to cases: Louisville

At 8-4 in Big East play and with home games remaining against St. John's and Seton Hall, Louisville has to be favored to win at least 10 conference games. Both of their remaining road games (@Marquette, @UConn) are winnable, if unlikely.

As of today, Louisville's at-risk profile looks like this:

vs. Big East8-410898+10

Wins: @South Florida (+39), @DePaul (+13), @Cincinnati (+24), @Pittsburgh (+16)

Losses: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12), @Villanova (-8), Georgetown (-17)

Last night's convincing win @Pittsburgh at least puts Louisville on the bubble. Though they're third in the Big East in average efficiency margin, they certainly don't have the third-best non-conference performance to go along with that. They figure to need to win at least one game on the road and/or in the Big East Tournament to separate themselves from the mass of mediocre big conference teams that will contend for the final at-large bids. They're playing better than the likes of Oregon, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Illinois, and Oklahoma State at this point in the season, but it sure would have helped to beat Dayton or UMass.

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