Through a combination of poor play, poor coaching, and poor health, the 60-win Hawks broke in the Eastern Conference Finals. A dreadful Game 4 performance doesn't mean they shattered into an infinite number of pieces, never to be reassembled. Gallows humor was the healthiest response to the events of Game 4, but that single debacle shouldn't overshadow that the Hawks threw away a chance to win Game 1 due to their curious first-half defensive gameplan and (another playoff game defined by) a second-half medley of missed open shots. Poor game management, on the floor and from the bench, cost the Hawks Game 3 in both regulation and overtime. It was a bad week, but not one that guaranteed playoff elimination, much less one that proved or disproved much about a wildly successful regular season.
Basketball philosophy will always tie this version of the Hawks to the Spurs, but their road to an NBA championship will look much more like the Mavericks: win 50 games a year, every year for a decade, and cash in one of your chances. It will take a minor miracle for these Hawks to acquire a player the caliber of Tim Duncan or David Robinson, but it's not impossible (a healthy) Al Horford could approximate the value of early-30s Dirk Nowitzki. Surround him with affordable, productive veterans, turn at least one role player into a difference-maker through context and performance, and you've got a chance. The Hawks weren't far off this season, and the difference may simply have been the cumulative impact of injuries and wounds.
Because of all the wasted resources during the Atlanta Spirit Group's ownership -- trading away first-round picks, making bad draft picks, losing good first-round picks without compensation -- maintaining a 50-win team with an annual chance to win a title will require the basketball side to make consistent good decisions, and that those good decisions work out. The Hawks aren't in as good a place as they are today without the two trades Danny Ferry made on July 11, 2012. They were massively important deals, but they weren't a solution. They solved one problem and created opportunity, but they did not add assets.
The Hawks (once putting a permanent GM in place) will surely explore all trade* and free agency options this summer. Starting the 2015-16 season with three starters 29 or older, coming off career years (that each ended in injury), and paying the trio twice as much for the privilege isn't utopian, but it may be the best case, short-term scenario. Worrying about standing pat with a wildly successful starting five is, admittedly, a strongly pessimistic point of view. Even if it's an unnecessarily pessimistic concern, those five will require significant improvement of roster spots 8-15 to get better.
*Considering the most enticing (non-Horford) package the Hawks would want to put together would consist of Teague or Schroder, plus Mike Scott, maybe and/or Bazemore, and Austin Daye's unguaranteed deal, they're unlikely to be involved in a blockbuster, but will surely look to shed some cheap, young, dead weight for a contributor or additional assets.
Likely having reached the limit of the value to be derived from creating wide-open threes for competent shooters (which appears to be making 35% of their 3PTAs in the regular season, possibly much less in the playoffs), the Hawks would be well served to acquire good shooters. The problem being that everybody wants good shooters and the Hawks are probably too good already to be helped by adding any one-dimensional shooters. A one-dimensional shooter isn't a significant improvement over Antic, Bazemore, or Scott. The Hawks need a wing shooter who can also defend, a big man who can shoot and defend, or or a big man who can shoot and rebound, a big man who can defend and rebound.
Theorizing out of the way, how could this work? Assume the Hawks re-sign Millsap and Carroll (which both sides want and there's probably a decent-sized band of years and money which makes everybody happy in both cases and both will likely have trade value in future years), Mike Muscala slides into Pero Antic's role, Pero re-signs to fill Elton Brand's savvy veteran who plays 500 minutes role, the Hawks draft a young wing* or playmaking four** in the first round, draft Alan Williams in the second round, plus an international prospect if they keep a second, second-round pick.
*Without having done my research, Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, RJ Hunter, and Kelly Oubre are all viable candidates and the Hawks may have their pick of the lot.
**Same caveat: Kevon Looney's the only real candidate in this category who will potentially be available at 15, I think.
That gives a no-trades, free agency loss-less version of the Hawks an asset roster of:
PGs: Teague, Schroder, Mack
Wings: Korver, Carroll, Sefolosha, #15 pick, Bazemore
Bigs: Millsap, Horford, Muscala, Antic, Williams, Scott
Non-guaranteed contract for non-player: Daye
Draft rights: Walter Tavares*, Lamar Patterson
All their own draft picks
Extra future draft picks: Brooklyn's 2017 second-round pick, Miami's 2017 or 2018 second-round pick**, a top-14 protected first-round pick from Minnesota (2018-2020) OR Minnesota's 2020 and 2021 second-round picks
*I don't think Tavares comes over next season if the Hawks keep Millsap, while also trying to integrate Muscala and a first-round pick into the rotation. Then again, the Eastern Conference champion didn't get above .500 for good until mid-January so maybe next season the Hawks punt November and half of December instead of the end of March and the first half of April.
**Pick is protected from 31-40 in 2017, unprotected in 2018.
There's probably enough there at the margins to consolidate a few pieces into a real contributor that's superfluous to or under-appreciated by another team, while also creating player development opportunities. The flip side is that there's probably nothing there that will have multiple teams picking up the phone to instigate a bidding war, though the Hawks will surely listen to any team willing to overpay for anyone or anything, even Horford.
Even if the Hawks lack a clear path forward in terms of personnel decisions, the organization has a very clear idea* of how they will achieve success. However, that clarity is no guarantee of success. There's no way to plan so well as to eliminate injuries, fully control developmental curves (for players, coaches, and the front office), or always overcome the other team's desire and ability to beat you in a seven-game series.
*And make no mistake: that idea begins with acquiring a superstar before, failing that, working its way down to something that resembles the 2014-15 Hawks.
It's difficult, in the wake of a clear vision of exactly how the Hawks reach the NBA Finals, a vision subsequently proven profoundly out of touch with actual events, to embrace the uncertainty of the offseason, with its countless actors, seen and unseen, conflicting agendas, and strange bedfellows. Whatever anticipatory comfort one finds takes the form of trusting in the Hawks knowing what they want to be and the entire organization's ability to learn from their mistakes and shortcomings.
Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Saturday, June 30, 2012
A Draft Dissent
I gave myself a day to find something more valuable than frustration and disappointment to express regarding John Jenkins and Mike Scott being the 23rd and 43rd selections in the 2012 NBA Draft.
In Jenkins, the Hawks acquired a one-trick pony. Granted, Jenkins' trick is the most important in the game. He can make shots. Problem being, he can't create shots and there's little evidence that Larry Drew's offensive system is capable of consistently creating quality shots for players. Furthermore, given Drew's tendency to play his reserves en masse, Jenkins figures to get court time with to be determined reserves who will, in all likelihood, be more comfortable creating shots for themselves than others.
Unless injuries force his hand, Drew has shown little willingness to give inexperienced players consistent minutes. Jenkins will always be a percentage player. Give him enough open looks from beyond the arc and he will score points efficiently. In a situation where a couple misses in a row might lead to Jenkins getting a week off, his limitations as a player could even be exaggerated as a Hawk.
In short, Jenkins is a nice second-round talent the Hawks drafted in the first round who does not, pending roster completion and/or changes, have a defined role to play for a team that, historically, has done a poor job of leveraging its players strengths while mitigating their weaknesses.
Regardless of identity, it is unreasonable to expect anything from the 43rd pick in the draft. Mike Scott does not figure to challenge that precept. Successful as a fifth-year senior at Virginia, Scott turns 24 in a couple of weeks. He's just two years younger than Marvin Williams and Al Horford. There's little precedent of a power forward draftee of any age succeeding in the NBA with the poor athleticism markers evident in the stats from Scott's excellent senior season. Scott averaged just one blocked shot and 1.4 steals per 100 on-court defensive possessions. He rebounded less than ten percent of Virginia's misses.
It's difficult to find recent comparisons to Scott's numbers. Best I can come up with are Luke Harangody without demonstrating college three-point range, a less efficient Tyler Hansbrough, or Gary Wilkinson, who went undrafted out of Utah State and currently stars in the Australian league. All three of those guys turned the ball over significantly less than Scott in their final college seasons so even the best comparisons for Scott break down eventually and not in his favor.
Furthermore, it's puzzling to comprehend how Scott fits on a roster with Ivan Johnson. Were Scott younger, it might make more sense to carry him as fifth big man (sure to be sixth once the Hawks sign a franchise-defining third-string center) in the hopes he develops into a rotation player. With Johnson yet to receive a qualifying offer, the suspicion lurks that the Hawks may be comfortable replacing him with an inferior, younger (but no young) player, in order to save about $500,000.
All in all, would the Hawks be significantly worse off, from a talent perspective, not even considering the combination of talent plus the inherent value of using the 23rd and 43rd picks to acquire additional talent, with the undrafted pair of William Buford and Drew Gordon?
Jenkins and Scott are clearly the superior scorers. Not to get all Prof. Berri here, but that's the simplest explanation for why they were drafted while Buford and Gordon were not. However, as all around players, what certainty is there that Buford, longer and more athletic than Jenkins, won't become a superior two-way role player to the Hawks' first-rounder? Does Gordon's relative youth and superior activity defensively and as a rebounder really suffer that much in comparison to Scott's superiority in knocking down a face-up jumper?
We'll see, won't we.
In Jenkins, the Hawks acquired a one-trick pony. Granted, Jenkins' trick is the most important in the game. He can make shots. Problem being, he can't create shots and there's little evidence that Larry Drew's offensive system is capable of consistently creating quality shots for players. Furthermore, given Drew's tendency to play his reserves en masse, Jenkins figures to get court time with to be determined reserves who will, in all likelihood, be more comfortable creating shots for themselves than others.
Unless injuries force his hand, Drew has shown little willingness to give inexperienced players consistent minutes. Jenkins will always be a percentage player. Give him enough open looks from beyond the arc and he will score points efficiently. In a situation where a couple misses in a row might lead to Jenkins getting a week off, his limitations as a player could even be exaggerated as a Hawk.
In short, Jenkins is a nice second-round talent the Hawks drafted in the first round who does not, pending roster completion and/or changes, have a defined role to play for a team that, historically, has done a poor job of leveraging its players strengths while mitigating their weaknesses.
Regardless of identity, it is unreasonable to expect anything from the 43rd pick in the draft. Mike Scott does not figure to challenge that precept. Successful as a fifth-year senior at Virginia, Scott turns 24 in a couple of weeks. He's just two years younger than Marvin Williams and Al Horford. There's little precedent of a power forward draftee of any age succeeding in the NBA with the poor athleticism markers evident in the stats from Scott's excellent senior season. Scott averaged just one blocked shot and 1.4 steals per 100 on-court defensive possessions. He rebounded less than ten percent of Virginia's misses.
It's difficult to find recent comparisons to Scott's numbers. Best I can come up with are Luke Harangody without demonstrating college three-point range, a less efficient Tyler Hansbrough, or Gary Wilkinson, who went undrafted out of Utah State and currently stars in the Australian league. All three of those guys turned the ball over significantly less than Scott in their final college seasons so even the best comparisons for Scott break down eventually and not in his favor.
Furthermore, it's puzzling to comprehend how Scott fits on a roster with Ivan Johnson. Were Scott younger, it might make more sense to carry him as fifth big man (sure to be sixth once the Hawks sign a franchise-defining third-string center) in the hopes he develops into a rotation player. With Johnson yet to receive a qualifying offer, the suspicion lurks that the Hawks may be comfortable replacing him with an inferior, younger (but no young) player, in order to save about $500,000.
All in all, would the Hawks be significantly worse off, from a talent perspective, not even considering the combination of talent plus the inherent value of using the 23rd and 43rd picks to acquire additional talent, with the undrafted pair of William Buford and Drew Gordon?
| Name | Age | TS% | Pts/100 | A/100 | TO/100 | BS/100 | S/100 | OR% | DR% |
| Jenkins | 21 | 66.2 | 36.5 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 8.2 |
| Buford | 23 | 52.5 | 25.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 14.4 |
| Scott | 23 | 62.8 | 38 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 1 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 24 |
| Gordon | 21 | 59.1 | 27.2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 2 | 2.2 | 12.4 | 28.6 |
Jenkins and Scott are clearly the superior scorers. Not to get all Prof. Berri here, but that's the simplest explanation for why they were drafted while Buford and Gordon were not. However, as all around players, what certainty is there that Buford, longer and more athletic than Jenkins, won't become a superior two-way role player to the Hawks' first-rounder? Does Gordon's relative youth and superior activity defensively and as a rebounder really suffer that much in comparison to Scott's superiority in knocking down a face-up jumper?
We'll see, won't we.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
The TrueHoop Network Held a Mock Draft
With the stipulation that we make predictions rather than express preferences and given the first 22 selections made by my colleagues, I have the Hawks taking Royce White.
1. New Orleans: Anthony Davis (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247.com)
2. Charlotte: Thomas Robinson (Spencer Percy, Queen City Hoops)
3. Washington: Bradley Beal (Kyle Weidie, Truth About It)
4. Cleveland: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Colin McGowan, Cavs: The Blog)
5. Sacramento: Harrison Barnes (James Ham, Cowbell Kingdom)
6. Portland: Andre Drummond (Sean Highkin, Portland Roundball Society)
7. Golden State: Dion Waiters (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)
8. Toronto: Jeremy Lamb (Sam Holako, Raptors Republic)
9. Detroit: John Henson (Dan Feldman, PistonPowered)
10. New Orleans: Damian Lillard (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247.com)
11. Portland: Kendall Marshall (Sean Highkin, Portland Roundball Society)
12. Milwaukee: Perry Jones III (Jeremy Schmidt, Bucksketball)
13. Phoenix: Terrence Ross (Ryan Weisert, Valley of the Suns)
14. Houston: Tyler Zeller (Jared Dubin, Hardwood Paroxysm)
15. Philadelphia: Terrence Jones (Carey Smith, Philadunkia)
16. Houston: Austin Rivers (Robert Silverman, KnickerBlogger)
17. Dallas: Quincy Miller (Connor Huchton, The Two Man Game)
18. Minnesota: Meyers Leonard (Steve McPherson, Hardwood Paroxysm)
19. Orlando: Tony Wroten (Eddy Rivera, MBN)
20. Denver: Andrew Nicholson (Kalen Deremo, Roundball Mining Company)
21. Boston: Jared Sullinger (Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub.com)
22. Boston: Moe Harkless (Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub.com)
23. Atlanta: Royce White (Bret LaGree, Hoopinion)
24. Cleveland: Arnett Moultrie (Colin McGowan, Cavs: The Blog)
25. Memphis: Fab Melo (Red Coleman, 3sob.com)
26. Indiana: Marquis Teague (Tim Donahue, 8p9s)
27. Miami: Jeff Taylor (Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak)
28. Oklahoma City: Draymond Green (Royce Young, Daily Thunder)
29. Chicago: Will Barton (Matt McHale, Bulls by the Horns)
30. Golden State: Jared Cunningham (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)
Given the same situation, I would prefer Draymond Green and Evan Fournier to White. This is where you tell me I'm wrong.
1. New Orleans: Anthony Davis (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247.com)
2. Charlotte: Thomas Robinson (Spencer Percy, Queen City Hoops)
3. Washington: Bradley Beal (Kyle Weidie, Truth About It)
4. Cleveland: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Colin McGowan, Cavs: The Blog)
5. Sacramento: Harrison Barnes (James Ham, Cowbell Kingdom)
6. Portland: Andre Drummond (Sean Highkin, Portland Roundball Society)
7. Golden State: Dion Waiters (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)
8. Toronto: Jeremy Lamb (Sam Holako, Raptors Republic)
9. Detroit: John Henson (Dan Feldman, PistonPowered)
10. New Orleans: Damian Lillard (Joe Gerrity, Hornets247.com)
11. Portland: Kendall Marshall (Sean Highkin, Portland Roundball Society)
12. Milwaukee: Perry Jones III (Jeremy Schmidt, Bucksketball)
13. Phoenix: Terrence Ross (Ryan Weisert, Valley of the Suns)
14. Houston: Tyler Zeller (Jared Dubin, Hardwood Paroxysm)
15. Philadelphia: Terrence Jones (Carey Smith, Philadunkia)
16. Houston: Austin Rivers (Robert Silverman, KnickerBlogger)
17. Dallas: Quincy Miller (Connor Huchton, The Two Man Game)
18. Minnesota: Meyers Leonard (Steve McPherson, Hardwood Paroxysm)
19. Orlando: Tony Wroten (Eddy Rivera, MBN)
20. Denver: Andrew Nicholson (Kalen Deremo, Roundball Mining Company)
21. Boston: Jared Sullinger (Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub.com)
22. Boston: Moe Harkless (Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub.com)
23. Atlanta: Royce White (Bret LaGree, Hoopinion)
24. Cleveland: Arnett Moultrie (Colin McGowan, Cavs: The Blog)
25. Memphis: Fab Melo (Red Coleman, 3sob.com)
26. Indiana: Marquis Teague (Tim Donahue, 8p9s)
27. Miami: Jeff Taylor (Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak)
28. Oklahoma City: Draymond Green (Royce Young, Daily Thunder)
29. Chicago: Will Barton (Matt McHale, Bulls by the Horns)
30. Golden State: Jared Cunningham (Rasheed Malek, WarriorsWorld.net)
Given the same situation, I would prefer Draymond Green and Evan Fournier to White. This is where you tell me I'm wrong.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Year of the Point Guard
By Buddy Grizzard
A few years back, in an NBA draft rich with point guard prospects, the Atlanta Hawks made a selection that would dramatically impact the team's fortunes to the present day. You know which draft I'm talking about. No, not the 2005 NBA draft when the Hawks selected Marvin Williams ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul. I'm talking about the 2009 NBA draft when each of 8 NBA teams (including the Hawks) drafted its current starting point guard.
The Hawks were looking to add depth behind Mike Bibby, and this was the draft to do it. There was so much potential at the point guard position that Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations David Kahn couldn't help himself; He drafted three of them, starting with Ricky Rubio at #5, followed immediatly by Jonny Flynn at #6. Rubio has exceeded expectations and become a sensation in his rookie campaign while Flynn is considered possibly the biggest bust of this draft (and has since been traded to Houston). Kahn's third selection was the #18 pick, just ahead of where the Hawks would select at #19. More on that in a moment.
At #4, prior to Rubio's selection, the Sacramento Kings selected Tyreke Evans, who is actually a shooting guard but starts for the Kings at point guard (John Salmons starts at two guard). The Golden State Warriors followed by drafting future starter Stephen Curry at #7, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Brandon Jennings at #10 and the Philadelphia 76ers grabbed Jrue Holiday at #17. With those players off the board, plenty of point guard prospects remained for Kahn's third selection of the first round. Wake Forest's Jeff Teague, North Carolina's Ty Lawson and UCLA's Darren Collison all remained available. Would Kahn go 3-for-3 on point guards?
Lawson was my sleeper pick for that draft. ESPN's Chad Ford had Teague more highly rated, but I had a feeling Lawson would make his mark in the league. Sure enough, Denver executed a draft-day trade, sending a future first round pick to the T-Wolves for the rights to Lawson. Rick Sund followed by drafting Teague for the Hawks and the rest, as they say, is history. Teague and Lawson have both emerged from what was considered a weak draft (aside from Blake Griffin) to become legitimate starters.
Collison ended up going at #21 to the New Orleans Hornets to back up Chris Paul before being traded to the Indiana Pacers, where he presently starts. Honorable mention goes to Jonesboro native Toney Douglas, drafted at #29, who briefly started for the Knicks this year before giving way to Iman Shumpert. I thought it would be interesting to compare the current stats and positional ranks for these '09 draftees from "The Year of the Point Guard."
Lawson is having himself a nice career but Jeff Teague is making Rick Sund look smarter by the minute.
Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com
A few years back, in an NBA draft rich with point guard prospects, the Atlanta Hawks made a selection that would dramatically impact the team's fortunes to the present day. You know which draft I'm talking about. No, not the 2005 NBA draft when the Hawks selected Marvin Williams ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul. I'm talking about the 2009 NBA draft when each of 8 NBA teams (including the Hawks) drafted its current starting point guard.
The Hawks were looking to add depth behind Mike Bibby, and this was the draft to do it. There was so much potential at the point guard position that Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations David Kahn couldn't help himself; He drafted three of them, starting with Ricky Rubio at #5, followed immediatly by Jonny Flynn at #6. Rubio has exceeded expectations and become a sensation in his rookie campaign while Flynn is considered possibly the biggest bust of this draft (and has since been traded to Houston). Kahn's third selection was the #18 pick, just ahead of where the Hawks would select at #19. More on that in a moment.
At #4, prior to Rubio's selection, the Sacramento Kings selected Tyreke Evans, who is actually a shooting guard but starts for the Kings at point guard (John Salmons starts at two guard). The Golden State Warriors followed by drafting future starter Stephen Curry at #7, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Brandon Jennings at #10 and the Philadelphia 76ers grabbed Jrue Holiday at #17. With those players off the board, plenty of point guard prospects remained for Kahn's third selection of the first round. Wake Forest's Jeff Teague, North Carolina's Ty Lawson and UCLA's Darren Collison all remained available. Would Kahn go 3-for-3 on point guards?
Lawson was my sleeper pick for that draft. ESPN's Chad Ford had Teague more highly rated, but I had a feeling Lawson would make his mark in the league. Sure enough, Denver executed a draft-day trade, sending a future first round pick to the T-Wolves for the rights to Lawson. Rick Sund followed by drafting Teague for the Hawks and the rest, as they say, is history. Teague and Lawson have both emerged from what was considered a weak draft (aside from Blake Griffin) to become legitimate starters.
Collison ended up going at #21 to the New Orleans Hornets to back up Chris Paul before being traded to the Indiana Pacers, where he presently starts. Honorable mention goes to Jonesboro native Toney Douglas, drafted at #29, who briefly started for the Knicks this year before giving way to Iman Shumpert. I thought it would be interesting to compare the current stats and positional ranks for these '09 draftees from "The Year of the Point Guard."
| Name | PPG | Rank | APG | Rank | A/TO | Rank | SPG | Rank | 3PT% | Rank |
| Jennings | 18.1 | 2 | 5.4 | 19 | 2.57 | 19 | 1.89 | 7 | 29.2 | 29 |
| Evans | 17.1 | 4 | 3.8 | 35 | 1.33 | 46 | 1.2 | 19 | 21.1 | NR |
| Lawson | 15.8 | 8 | 6.0 | 14 | 2.73 | 12 | 1.9 | 6 | 33.3 | 23 |
| Curry | 15.2 | 10 | 5.6 | 16 | 1.56 | 42 | 1.8 | 8 | 40.9 | 7 |
| Holiday | 14.5 | 14 | 4.5 | 25 | 1.76 | 38 | 1.78 | 9 | 38.2 | 12 |
| Teague | 11.9 | 19 | 5.6 | 16 | 2.95 | 10 | 2.1 | 3 | 47.4 | 2 |
| Collison | 11 | 23 | 5.4 | 18 | 2.58 | 18 | 1.11 | 21 | 50 | 1 |
| Rubio | 9.9 | 29 | 7.4 | 9 | 2.39 | 24 | 1.6 | 11 | 47.1 | 3 |
Lawson is having himself a nice career but Jeff Teague is making Rick Sund look smarter by the minute.
Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com
Thursday, September 22, 2011
The All-Time Drafted By the Hawks But Never Played For the Hawks Team
Inspired by this post at Hardwood Paroxysm:
PG -- Bob Cousy
2G -- John Williamson
SF -- David Thompson
PF --Pau Gasol
C --Bill Russell
6th man -- Wayne Embry
Honorable mention to Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis since the Hawks drafted him but did so before Sabonis turned 21. The pick was voided so they never really held his rights.
Leave your corrections, commiserations and caterwauling in the comments.
PG -- Bob Cousy
2G -- John Williamson
SF -- David Thompson
PF --Pau Gasol
C --Bill Russell
6th man -- Wayne Embry
Honorable mention to Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis since the Hawks drafted him but did so before Sabonis turned 21. The pick was voided so they never really held his rights.
Leave your corrections, commiserations and caterwauling in the comments.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Some Atlanta Hawks Thoughts Inspired By the 48th Pick
1) It's not flippant to say the Hawks should draft the best player, regardless of position, with the 48th pick of the 2011 NBA Draft. That's really all a team can do in that position. (Ignoring, for the moment, how a team got itself in that position.)
Looking at the most recent mock draft at DraftExpress, there are some potentially useful (potentially useful being defined, for the purposes of the 48th pick, as a likely bet to make the roster and a non-zero chance of becoming a rotation player within two seasons) players available with the 48th pick: David Lighty, Isaiah Thomas, Cory Joseph, and Andrew Goudelock.
2) The Hawks should consider buying the 32nd or 34th pick from Cleveland or Washington. There's relatively little chance the Hawks will get an immediate rotation player at that spot in the draft but it's still preferable to wasting roster spots on older, non-rotation players like Josh Powell or Etan Thomas, and, given the team's cap situation, they're not likely to have any really good options when it comes to filling out the bench.
3) All of my off-season speculation about the Hawks assumes the existence of a 2011-12 NBA season and that the Hawks bring back (or, at least make a serious attempt to being back) Jason Collins as a defensive specialist in the post, at least one of Damien Wilkins or Pape Sy as a defensive specialist on the wing, and give Magnum Rolle a chance to make the roster as an emergency backup in the frontcourt.
4) Though I assume the Hawks will explore the trade market for both Marvin Williams and Kirk Hinrich and would listen if, say, Cleveland or New Orleans inquired about making an immediate upgrade at the 2-guard, let's say the Hawks don't make any trades. What kind of players would they need to acquire to fill out a balanced roster?
In order of importance...
The Hawks got all they could have expected, if not more, from Crawford over the past two seasons but it's time to move on.
*And, if more is demanded and Smith or Horford is found wanting, the Hawks must then explore trading one or both as means to make the team better.
Looking at the most recent mock draft at DraftExpress, there are some potentially useful (potentially useful being defined, for the purposes of the 48th pick, as a likely bet to make the roster and a non-zero chance of becoming a rotation player within two seasons) players available with the 48th pick: David Lighty, Isaiah Thomas, Cory Joseph, and Andrew Goudelock.
2) The Hawks should consider buying the 32nd or 34th pick from Cleveland or Washington. There's relatively little chance the Hawks will get an immediate rotation player at that spot in the draft but it's still preferable to wasting roster spots on older, non-rotation players like Josh Powell or Etan Thomas, and, given the team's cap situation, they're not likely to have any really good options when it comes to filling out the bench.
3) All of my off-season speculation about the Hawks assumes the existence of a 2011-12 NBA season and that the Hawks bring back (or, at least make a serious attempt to being back) Jason Collins as a defensive specialist in the post, at least one of Damien Wilkins or Pape Sy as a defensive specialist on the wing, and give Magnum Rolle a chance to make the roster as an emergency backup in the frontcourt.
4) Though I assume the Hawks will explore the trade market for both Marvin Williams and Kirk Hinrich and would listen if, say, Cleveland or New Orleans inquired about making an immediate upgrade at the 2-guard, let's say the Hawks don't make any trades. What kind of players would they need to acquire to fill out a balanced roster?
In order of importance...
- A backup two-guard who can either defend or spread the floor, preferably both
- A legitimate backup power forward to fill the fourth spot in the post rotation
- A third-string point guard
The Hawks got all they could have expected, if not more, from Crawford over the past two seasons but it's time to move on.
*And, if more is demanded and Smith or Horford is found wanting, the Hawks must then explore trading one or both as means to make the team better.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Prognostication in Retrospect
Jeff Ma is, if not an out-and-out wealthy* man, a wealthier man
than I. I'm mostly jealous that he's worked with Kevin Pritchard but he also appears (by his own account) to have gotten the Kevin Durant/Greg Oden choice more correct than I.
There's no Hawks-specific content in this post, just a peek inside how a front office interested in alternative points of view operates and a reminder of how wrong I might (I repeat, might, let's see ifFazekas Oden has a healthy season before delivering a final judgment) be.
*I don't know him, he may or may not be.
than I. I'm mostly jealous that he's worked with Kevin Pritchard but he also appears (by his own account) to have gotten the Kevin Durant/Greg Oden choice more correct than I.There's no Hawks-specific content in this post, just a peek inside how a front office interested in alternative points of view operates and a reminder of how wrong I might (I repeat, might, let's see if
*I don't know him, he may or may not be.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Draft-Day Trades Involving the 24th Pick
Again, these are draft-day trades* only, dating back to 1988, the first year the 24th pick was a first round pick.
*That the Mavericks traded Rolando Blackmon to the Knicks and three years later got the chance to pick Loren Meyer 24th holds little relevance to what the Hawks can get for the pick in the short term, which, looking at historical precedence, isn't much.
1989: 24th pick traded for 27th pick and Micheal Williams (2nd round pick in 1988, played 358 minutes as rookie, played 26 minutes for Phoenix before being waived)
1998: 24th pick (plus Carl Herrera) traded for Antonio Daniels (Grizzlies drafted Bibby 2nd and cut bait on 1997's 4th overall pick)
2007: 24th pick (plus James Jones) traded for cash (One of the late first-round picks Phoenix sold to avoid adding a guaranteed contract.)
2009: 24th pick traded for 25th pick and 2010 second-round pick (Sam Presti's a good GM but giving up a second-round pick to get Byron Mullens (especially considering Dallas took Rodrigue Beaubois with the 25th pick) is unlikely to be remembered as one of his finer moments.)
*That the Mavericks traded Rolando Blackmon to the Knicks and three years later got the chance to pick Loren Meyer 24th holds little relevance to what the Hawks can get for the pick in the short term, which, looking at historical precedence, isn't much.
1989: 24th pick traded for 27th pick and Micheal Williams (2nd round pick in 1988, played 358 minutes as rookie, played 26 minutes for Phoenix before being waived)
1998: 24th pick (plus Carl Herrera) traded for Antonio Daniels (Grizzlies drafted Bibby 2nd and cut bait on 1997's 4th overall pick)
2007: 24th pick (plus James Jones) traded for cash (One of the late first-round picks Phoenix sold to avoid adding a guaranteed contract.)
2009: 24th pick traded for 25th pick and 2010 second-round pick (Sam Presti's a good GM but giving up a second-round pick to get Byron Mullens (especially considering Dallas took Rodrigue Beaubois with the 25th pick) is unlikely to be remembered as one of his finer moments.)
Monday, June 07, 2010
The 24th Pick, A History
The 24th pick has been in the first round of the NBA Draft since 1988. Here's a list of the players selected in that spot.
2009: Byron Mullens
2008: Serge Ibaka
2007: Rudy Fernandez
2006: Kyle Lowry
2005: Luther Head
2004: Delonte West
2003: Brian Cook
2002: Nenad Krstic (Strange that three of the last eight 24th picks were on Oklahoma City's roster last season.)
2001: Raul Lopez
2000: Dalibor Bagaric
1999: Andrei Kirilenko
1998: Felipe Lopez
1997: Rodrick Rhodes (Rhodes and Lopez both had lengthy (and disappointing, relative to expectations, collegiate careers) and were both 24 in their rookie seasons. Granted, pickings were slim at the point in both drafts, but I fail to see the appeal of spending a first round pick on an old-for-his-draft-class wing who can't shoot.)
1996: Derek Fisher
1995: Loren Meyer
1994: Monty Williams
1993: Sam Cassell
1992: Latrell Sprewell
1991: Rick Fox (Using faulty probabilities, it appears the Hawks are almost as likely to draft an unlikeable Laker (Fisher, Fox) with the 24th pick as they are to pick a future All-Star (Sprewell, Cassell, Kirilenko).)
1990: Dwayne Schintzius
1989: Anthony Cook
1988: Brian Shaw
Of these 22 players, 3 (Kirilenko, Sprewell, Cassell) made at least one All-Star team and were good NBA starters, 3 more had lengthy careers as useful rotation players (Fisher, Fox, and Shaw), 5 active players (Ibaka, Fernandez, Lowry, Krstic, West) could reasonably be expected to achieve at least that latter status and, if they don't, could have a brief run as a useful rotation player similar to that which Monty Williams enjoyed with the Spurs.
That leaves 10 players whose contributions ranged from end of the rotation in a good season to disposable roster filler in a typical season: Mullens, Head, Brian Cook, Raul Lopez, Bagaric, Felipe Lopez, Rhodes, Meyer, Schintzius, and Anthony Cook. Possible lessons learned from these unsuccessful selections:
Nor are these groundbreaking prescriptions for maximizing the value of the 24th pick but I'll be keeping them in mind as I preview the 2010 Draft.
2009: Byron Mullens
2008: Serge Ibaka
2007: Rudy Fernandez
2006: Kyle Lowry
2005: Luther Head
2004: Delonte West
2003: Brian Cook
2002: Nenad Krstic (Strange that three of the last eight 24th picks were on Oklahoma City's roster last season.)
2001: Raul Lopez
2000: Dalibor Bagaric
1999: Andrei Kirilenko
1998: Felipe Lopez
1997: Rodrick Rhodes (Rhodes and Lopez both had lengthy (and disappointing, relative to expectations, collegiate careers) and were both 24 in their rookie seasons. Granted, pickings were slim at the point in both drafts, but I fail to see the appeal of spending a first round pick on an old-for-his-draft-class wing who can't shoot.)
1996: Derek Fisher
1995: Loren Meyer
1994: Monty Williams
1993: Sam Cassell
1992: Latrell Sprewell
1991: Rick Fox (Using faulty probabilities, it appears the Hawks are almost as likely to draft an unlikeable Laker (Fisher, Fox) with the 24th pick as they are to pick a future All-Star (Sprewell, Cassell, Kirilenko).)
1990: Dwayne Schintzius
1989: Anthony Cook
1988: Brian Shaw
Of these 22 players, 3 (Kirilenko, Sprewell, Cassell) made at least one All-Star team and were good NBA starters, 3 more had lengthy careers as useful rotation players (Fisher, Fox, and Shaw), 5 active players (Ibaka, Fernandez, Lowry, Krstic, West) could reasonably be expected to achieve at least that latter status and, if they don't, could have a brief run as a useful rotation player similar to that which Monty Williams enjoyed with the Spurs.
That leaves 10 players whose contributions ranged from end of the rotation in a good season to disposable roster filler in a typical season: Mullens, Head, Brian Cook, Raul Lopez, Bagaric, Felipe Lopez, Rhodes, Meyer, Schintzius, and Anthony Cook. Possible lessons learned from these unsuccessful selections:
- Don't draft old college players.
- Especially don't draft old college players who can't shoot.
- Collegiate big men available late in the first-round are likely available for a reason.
- Even if you do your international scouting work and draft a potentially useful player (say, Raul Lopez) late in the first-round he can still hurt his knee and/or end up in Europe for the bulk of his career.
Nor are these groundbreaking prescriptions for maximizing the value of the 24th pick but I'll be keeping them in mind as I preview the 2010 Draft.
- International scouting is a must. There may be no more important work done by the Hawks in this draft than coming to a conclusion on Kevin Seraphin.
- When considering college players, demand either youth or production.
- Don't expect to get a well-rounded collegiate player. However, a pass-first point guard or a spot-up shooter can provide value if he possesses the athleticism and intelligence to become a useful defender in the NBA.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
TrueHoop NCAA Tournament Backet Group
Henry Abbott's set up a group at the big web site. Go here if you wish to join. I have.
For those of you who wish to augment tonight's Hawks/Kings encounter by preparing for the 2011 NBA Draft, Morehead State's Kenneth Faried is worth watching in tonight's NCAA Tournament Play-In game.
DraftExpress ranks Faried the 23rd-best Sophomore in the land. Faried's an undersized (6-8, 215) center in a low-major conference but his defensive ability (4.1 blocks and 3.9 steals per 100 possessions this season) and rebounding (16.8/32.9 OR%/DR%*) suggest he has a decent chance to make a successful transition to the NBA as, at the least, a 3/4 hybrid off the bench.
*That's 6th- and 2nd-best in country (per kenpom.com), respectively, and down slightly from his freshman year rankings of 1st and 4th.
For those of you who wish to augment tonight's Hawks/Kings encounter by preparing for the 2011 NBA Draft, Morehead State's Kenneth Faried is worth watching in tonight's NCAA Tournament Play-In game.
DraftExpress ranks Faried the 23rd-best Sophomore in the land. Faried's an undersized (6-8, 215) center in a low-major conference but his defensive ability (4.1 blocks and 3.9 steals per 100 possessions this season) and rebounding (16.8/32.9 OR%/DR%*) suggest he has a decent chance to make a successful transition to the NBA as, at the least, a 3/4 hybrid off the bench.
*That's 6th- and 2nd-best in country (per kenpom.com), respectively, and down slightly from his freshman year rankings of 1st and 4th.
Friday, June 29, 2007
Note to John DeShazier
Mr. DeShazier of the Times-Picayune isn't enamored of Mr. Julian Wright:
Per possession, here's Young vs. Wright in 06-07:
Here's a list of things Nick Young is better at than Julian Wright:
1. Shooting outside of fifteen feet
Even then, Nick Young made less than a third of his three-point attempts over his first two years at USC. He improved last year but he was also, I suspect, very hot.
In addition to being two years younger than Nick Young, Julian Wright is already, at this moment, a better defender, a better rebounder, a better passer, and a better ball-handler.
In their college careers Julian Wright almost averaged twice as many assists per 100 possessions as Young which pretty much negates the five point per 100 possession scoring advantage Young has. Factoring in how inefficient Young was in scoring points in his first two years at USC (eFG% of 49.1 and 49.5, PPWS of 1.03 and 1.10), Wright was a much better offensive player through two college seasons.
Julian Wright is never going to make three-point shots in the NBA but he certainly has room to improve his jump shot and free throw shooting, thus narrowing the one advantage Nick Young has over him on the basketball court. Nick Young is never going to create easy shots for his teammates in the NBA. Nick Young is never going to be an above average rebounder in the NBA. Nick Young is never going to be a (positive) factor defensively in the NBA. Whatever other needs the Hornets have, drafting Julian Wright rather than Nick Young makes them a better, more talented team.
Because unless Wright has a shooting stroke that belies the 12 points he averaged as a sophomore, it's hard to see how the Hornets helped themselves in the area they need the most help. He averaged 10.4 points in two college seasons, was 3-for-16 from 3-point range with a closer line than the one he'll see in the NBA, and averaged two assists in 71 games.With all due respect, per game averages are for chumps.The franchise entered and exited the first round without a shooting guard.
It left Nick Young on the table in favor of Wright, 6 feet 8. Young also might not have been the perfect fit for a team that needs a veteran more than a youngster, but he certainly looked like a better fit for the vacant hole.
Per possession, here's Young vs. Wright in 06-07:
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Young | 81.3 | 57.4 | 78.6 | 1.23 | 31.5 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 11.2 |
| Wright | 68.3 | 55.3 | 61.3 | 1.14 | 25.2 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 |
Here's a list of things Nick Young is better at than Julian Wright:
1. Shooting outside of fifteen feet
Even then, Nick Young made less than a third of his three-point attempts over his first two years at USC. He improved last year but he was also, I suspect, very hot.
In addition to being two years younger than Nick Young, Julian Wright is already, at this moment, a better defender, a better rebounder, a better passer, and a better ball-handler.
In their college careers Julian Wright almost averaged twice as many assists per 100 possessions as Young which pretty much negates the five point per 100 possession scoring advantage Young has. Factoring in how inefficient Young was in scoring points in his first two years at USC (eFG% of 49.1 and 49.5, PPWS of 1.03 and 1.10), Wright was a much better offensive player through two college seasons.
Julian Wright is never going to make three-point shots in the NBA but he certainly has room to improve his jump shot and free throw shooting, thus narrowing the one advantage Nick Young has over him on the basketball court. Nick Young is never going to create easy shots for his teammates in the NBA. Nick Young is never going to be an above average rebounder in the NBA. Nick Young is never going to be a (positive) factor defensively in the NBA. Whatever other needs the Hornets have, drafting Julian Wright rather than Nick Young makes them a better, more talented team.
Draft Analysis
These will be quick but they must be done before Hoopinion goes off-line while moving.
Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford was the third best player in the draft. Acie Law IV is what he is but what he is is better than anybody the Hawks have played at the point in recent years. (Okay, he may not be better than Tyronn Lue, but I've been anti-Tyronn Lue for over a decade and I'm not letting his recent, productive offensive play disrupt tradition.) To those who would have drafted Conley I say, the Hawks will not be so good so soon that they forfeit the opportunity to upgrade the point guard position further in the next couple of drafts. (EDIT: Stats has reminded me that Atlanta's first round pick in '08 goes to Phoenix, so they'll have one chance in the draft. I'd recommend trading Marvin Williams for Jose Calderon.)
Boston Celtics: Getting rid of Wally Szczerbiak's contract? Plus. Replacing Delonte West with Gabe Pruitt? Minus. Trading the rights of the fifth draft pick for Ray Allen? Plus in '07-'08, possibly a plus in '08-'09, probably a minus by '09-'10. Adding Glen Davis to play somewhere behind Jefferson, Perkins, and Gomes? Probably irrelevant to everyone except Leon Powe.
Charlotte Bobcats: Jason Richardson is a much better basketball player than Brandan Wright. Granted, I use to think of Jason Richardson as I now think of Brandan Wright so I could be wrong about all this in three years. Jared Dudley should immediately push Adam Morrison down into an appropriate spot on the depth chart while he learns how to get a good shot off in the NBA. Jermareo Davidson is unlikely to be a factor in that frontcourt. I predict Europe.
Chicago Bulls: Noah was the fourth best player in the draft. His lack of scoring ability is massively overstated. He led the first Florida national championship team in scoring (33.5 Pts/100) and simply became more of a passer last season (A/100 up by over 25%). He outscored Horford significantly in their freshman and sophomore seasons and scored just 0.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than Horford this past season.
When Noah's out there in place of Ben Wallace, Chicago will be playing 5-on-5 offensively. Hell, when Aaron Gray's out there instead of Wallace, the same holds. Gray figures to be great value for a second-round pick. He can play 12 good minutes a night for the next 6-8 years. JamesOn Curry was hindered by Oklahoma State's terrible point guard the last two years, but I don't see him becoming an effective off guard in the NBA.
Cleveland Cavaliers: No pick. No trade.
Dallas Mavericks: If his body lets him, Fazekas will make use of his skills. It's certainly a no-lose situation for the Mavericks to use a second-round pick on him but small consolation for Adam Morrison and JJ Redick stealing all of his Player of the Year awards year before last.
By the time Seibutis and Rakovic are ready to come over I'll have established an uninformed opinion about them. It's too early for that now, though.
Denver Nuggets: No pick. No trade. (But cheers to Arseblog for the Satan Kroenke moniker.)
Detroit Pistons: Rodney Stuckey is probably better than Flip Murray, though the extra made shots might be offset by the extra turnovers in the short term. Arron Afflalo is more likely to make an immediate impact as a defender and spot-up shooter. Sammy Mejia was a hell of a lot better than Wilson Chandler at DePaul. Like Chandler, he doesn't necessarily have a position in the NBA but as he's smaller and less athletic than his former teammate, he'll get far fewer chances despite far greater basketball skills.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors already have a bigger version of Brandan Wright in Biedrins. It's a good situation for Wright as he'd struggle in any sort of half-court context. Plus, playing alongside Al Harrington, he'll immediately look like a good reboudner. Belinelli certainly sounds like a good fit and a possible yin to Pietrus's yang. Stephane Lasme must also be thrilled to have joined an organization that has use for a skinny, 6-7 power forward who specializes in blocking shots.
Houston Rockets: Aaron Brooks is (I guess) an upgrade over Little John Lucas. This is the only organization that keeps a roster spot for an undersized, shoot-first, defend-never point guard that was slightly overrated in college. Carl Landry was quite underrated in college but he has both size and surgery history working against him. If I may resort to stereotype and hyperbole, Brad Newley is going to make Steve Novak look athletic.
Indiana Pacers: Stanko Barac. May we all still have our health when his NBA career comes to pass.
Los Angeles Clippers: If the Clippers try to replace Corey Maggette with Al Thornton, Mike Dunleavy might finally recognize how good Corey Maggette is. Thornton is going to be a scoring, offensive rebounding, undersized power forward on a good team. Even then you'll have to live with his poor defense and frequency of shot attempts. Personally, I'd like to see him on a really bad team where he'd have the offensive freedom he had at Florida State. He's not a guy you'd want to play with unless you suck and need someone to score for you.
Jared Jordan is perfect for the GM who thought about inviting Will Conroy or Aaron Miles to camp but didn't like the fact that either of those guys can keep an opposing point guard in front of him. There's not a great NBA tradition of unathletic point guards who can't shoot. Bully to Jordan if he can change the game.
Los Angeles Lakers: Crittenton could really benefit from the structure of the triangle offense. Poor decision-making (and Paul Hewitt's acceptance of turnovers) limited the accomplishments of his freshman year. He's very talented and could become quite good. Marc Gasol could fill a need if Bynum's traded. Sun Yue can certainly sell some jerseys and possibly backup Luke Walton. Without even seeing Sun Yue play, I give him a good chance at beating out Radmanovic for minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies: Taking Conley was a no-brainer. I always thought Kyle Lowry would be an excellent backup. Now they just have to get moved to the Eastern Conference.
Miami Heat: Daequan Cook is a lot more talented than Dorell (I always have to check as to whether it's one 'r' or one 'l') Wright but I don't know how well he fits in Miami. With the players they currently have under contract, I'd be tempted to give him Antoine Walker's minutes at the 3, but that has more to do with Antoine's inadequacies than Cook's readiness or ability to succeed at that position.
Milwaukee Bucks: Who knows if they'll get Yi to play for them or what they could get in a trade for him. The simple thing to do would have been to draft Noah or Brewer and get immediate contributions. I would have taken Zabian Dowdell ahead of Ramon Sessions in the second round.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Garnett can play but he'll probably be traded. McCants can play, if he's healthy. Foye and Brewer can play. Craig Smith is a nice complementary player. Chris Richard (assuming his success at Florida wasn't primarily due to his ability to play well with good players) might be their next best player depending on Ricky Davis's mood.
New Jersey Nets: I wonder how often I will write this off-season: "Sean Williams is not a good rebounder." In fact, his rebounding numbers last year were almost identical to those Marcus Williams posted. Sean Williams will block a lot of shots but in between shot blocking opportunities his attention wanders. He's a better dunker than Jason Collins but other than that their offensive games are similarly limited.
New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets certainly won't have to worry about their first-round draft pick duplicating any of Peja Stojakovic's skill set. Julian Wright will be immediately useful defensively and as a rebounder on both the offensive and defensive glass. He can finish in transition and is a good passer. If he simplifies his game off the dribble and improves his shooting he'll go down as a massive draft steal.
Haluska may fix any Chris Andersen jones the Hornets franchise has. He's extremely athletic, but at his size, I'm not sure that can make up for his relative lack of skill.
New York Knicks: Wilson Chandler doesn't know how to play basketball. Demetris Nichols can score, but nobody's going to let him touch the ball. Zach Randolph is better than Eddy Curry, but it's not like Eddy Curry does anything other than make a high percentage of his field goal attempts so he can't complement Randolph. Fred Jones might be an upgrade over Mardy Collins the next time Isiah feels the need for blood vengeance.
Orlando Magic: I like Reyshawn Terry a lot but I'm not sure I like him better than Trevor Ariza. Terry can shoot so he might get some minutes at the 2.
Philadelphia 76ers: Thaddeus Young did not show any interest in defending, rebounding, or scoring in the paint at Georgia Tech. He'll have to attempt at least two of those tasks to become a good NBA player. My guess is that he's content to be a jump shooter who gets the occasional dunk in transition or off an offensive rebound.
Jason Smith scored well at Colorado State, but he turned the ball over a hell of a lot. He could be little more than an upgrade over Shavlik Randolph. Derrick Byars has his uses, but are they different than those that Korver, Carney, and Bobby Jones offer? Herbert Hill could parlay his ability to play on both ends of the floor into serious minutes very quickly considering the alternatives.
Phoenix Suns: Alando Tucker can't shoot and he didn't rebound much at Wisconsin. He'll have to make the volume scorer to defensive specialist transition that Adrian Griffin eventually managed. DJ Strawberry could very well be the more productive NBA player.
Portland TrailBlazers: Putting Fernandez and Koponen aside for the moment as I'm ignorant, Portland acquired the best player in the draft, the point guard of the last two national champions (I'm skeptical that Taurean Green will be a useful NBA player, but I wouldn't be shocked if he figured out how to become one.), and picked up Josh McRoberts at a cost appropriate to his abilities. Now all Kevin Pritchard has to do is find a decent small forward.
They also got Channing Frye who figures to fit in nicely alongside either Oden or Aldridge. For the record, Frye is not very much like LaMarcus Aldridge at all. Aldridge rebounds, plays defense, and has a nascent post game.
Sacramento Kings: This may be the first time I'm glad they left Kansas City 22 years ago.
San Antonio Spurs: Splitter is worthy reward for running your organization really well. They're also buying low on Marcus Williams who had a fine freshman season at Arizona but was party to the implosion in Tucson last year. He could give them something like Stephen Jackson's contributions to the '03 NBA Champions.
Giorgis Printezis looked a lot like Eli Roth.
Seattle SuperSonics: I think you can afford to pay Wally Szczerbiak $25 million over the next two years for however many healthy games he can provide you when you're only paying $6 million for Kevin Durant and Jeff Green's combined production. Delonte West should provide a lot of good minutes in the backcourt and one has to assume that some of the current roster will be traded over the summer.
Toronto Raptors: No pick. No trade.
Utah Jazz: Morris Almond should be able to play alongside Ronnie Brewer while backing up Derek Fisher and Matt Harpring, thus preventing Gordan Giricek from playing 1200 minutes again next year. I deem that a success.
Washington Wizards: I fail to see how Nick Young complements Arenas, Butler, and Jamison any better than Jarvis Hayes did. Young is coming off a career year. He'll have to improve significantly to be that good again (relative to the level of competition, of course).
Dominic McGuire is an undersized, under-skilled four who doesn't contribute as much on the offensive glass as those types of guys generally have to in order to be useful. He's this draft's poor man's Stephane Lasme.
Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford was the third best player in the draft. Acie Law IV is what he is but what he is is better than anybody the Hawks have played at the point in recent years. (Okay, he may not be better than Tyronn Lue, but I've been anti-Tyronn Lue for over a decade and I'm not letting his recent, productive offensive play disrupt tradition.) To those who would have drafted Conley I say, the Hawks will not be so good so soon that they forfeit the opportunity to upgrade the point guard position further in the next couple of drafts. (EDIT: Stats has reminded me that Atlanta's first round pick in '08 goes to Phoenix, so they'll have one chance in the draft. I'd recommend trading Marvin Williams for Jose Calderon.)
Boston Celtics: Getting rid of Wally Szczerbiak's contract? Plus. Replacing Delonte West with Gabe Pruitt? Minus. Trading the rights of the fifth draft pick for Ray Allen? Plus in '07-'08, possibly a plus in '08-'09, probably a minus by '09-'10. Adding Glen Davis to play somewhere behind Jefferson, Perkins, and Gomes? Probably irrelevant to everyone except Leon Powe.
Charlotte Bobcats: Jason Richardson is a much better basketball player than Brandan Wright. Granted, I use to think of Jason Richardson as I now think of Brandan Wright so I could be wrong about all this in three years. Jared Dudley should immediately push Adam Morrison down into an appropriate spot on the depth chart while he learns how to get a good shot off in the NBA. Jermareo Davidson is unlikely to be a factor in that frontcourt. I predict Europe.
Chicago Bulls: Noah was the fourth best player in the draft. His lack of scoring ability is massively overstated. He led the first Florida national championship team in scoring (33.5 Pts/100) and simply became more of a passer last season (A/100 up by over 25%). He outscored Horford significantly in their freshman and sophomore seasons and scored just 0.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than Horford this past season.
When Noah's out there in place of Ben Wallace, Chicago will be playing 5-on-5 offensively. Hell, when Aaron Gray's out there instead of Wallace, the same holds. Gray figures to be great value for a second-round pick. He can play 12 good minutes a night for the next 6-8 years. JamesOn Curry was hindered by Oklahoma State's terrible point guard the last two years, but I don't see him becoming an effective off guard in the NBA.
Cleveland Cavaliers: No pick. No trade.
Dallas Mavericks: If his body lets him, Fazekas will make use of his skills. It's certainly a no-lose situation for the Mavericks to use a second-round pick on him but small consolation for Adam Morrison and JJ Redick stealing all of his Player of the Year awards year before last.
By the time Seibutis and Rakovic are ready to come over I'll have established an uninformed opinion about them. It's too early for that now, though.
Denver Nuggets: No pick. No trade. (But cheers to Arseblog for the Satan Kroenke moniker.)
Detroit Pistons: Rodney Stuckey is probably better than Flip Murray, though the extra made shots might be offset by the extra turnovers in the short term. Arron Afflalo is more likely to make an immediate impact as a defender and spot-up shooter. Sammy Mejia was a hell of a lot better than Wilson Chandler at DePaul. Like Chandler, he doesn't necessarily have a position in the NBA but as he's smaller and less athletic than his former teammate, he'll get far fewer chances despite far greater basketball skills.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors already have a bigger version of Brandan Wright in Biedrins. It's a good situation for Wright as he'd struggle in any sort of half-court context. Plus, playing alongside Al Harrington, he'll immediately look like a good reboudner. Belinelli certainly sounds like a good fit and a possible yin to Pietrus's yang. Stephane Lasme must also be thrilled to have joined an organization that has use for a skinny, 6-7 power forward who specializes in blocking shots.
Houston Rockets: Aaron Brooks is (I guess) an upgrade over Little John Lucas. This is the only organization that keeps a roster spot for an undersized, shoot-first, defend-never point guard that was slightly overrated in college. Carl Landry was quite underrated in college but he has both size and surgery history working against him. If I may resort to stereotype and hyperbole, Brad Newley is going to make Steve Novak look athletic.
Indiana Pacers: Stanko Barac. May we all still have our health when his NBA career comes to pass.
Los Angeles Clippers: If the Clippers try to replace Corey Maggette with Al Thornton, Mike Dunleavy might finally recognize how good Corey Maggette is. Thornton is going to be a scoring, offensive rebounding, undersized power forward on a good team. Even then you'll have to live with his poor defense and frequency of shot attempts. Personally, I'd like to see him on a really bad team where he'd have the offensive freedom he had at Florida State. He's not a guy you'd want to play with unless you suck and need someone to score for you.
Jared Jordan is perfect for the GM who thought about inviting Will Conroy or Aaron Miles to camp but didn't like the fact that either of those guys can keep an opposing point guard in front of him. There's not a great NBA tradition of unathletic point guards who can't shoot. Bully to Jordan if he can change the game.
Los Angeles Lakers: Crittenton could really benefit from the structure of the triangle offense. Poor decision-making (and Paul Hewitt's acceptance of turnovers) limited the accomplishments of his freshman year. He's very talented and could become quite good. Marc Gasol could fill a need if Bynum's traded. Sun Yue can certainly sell some jerseys and possibly backup Luke Walton. Without even seeing Sun Yue play, I give him a good chance at beating out Radmanovic for minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies: Taking Conley was a no-brainer. I always thought Kyle Lowry would be an excellent backup. Now they just have to get moved to the Eastern Conference.
Miami Heat: Daequan Cook is a lot more talented than Dorell (I always have to check as to whether it's one 'r' or one 'l') Wright but I don't know how well he fits in Miami. With the players they currently have under contract, I'd be tempted to give him Antoine Walker's minutes at the 3, but that has more to do with Antoine's inadequacies than Cook's readiness or ability to succeed at that position.
Milwaukee Bucks: Who knows if they'll get Yi to play for them or what they could get in a trade for him. The simple thing to do would have been to draft Noah or Brewer and get immediate contributions. I would have taken Zabian Dowdell ahead of Ramon Sessions in the second round.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Garnett can play but he'll probably be traded. McCants can play, if he's healthy. Foye and Brewer can play. Craig Smith is a nice complementary player. Chris Richard (assuming his success at Florida wasn't primarily due to his ability to play well with good players) might be their next best player depending on Ricky Davis's mood.
New Jersey Nets: I wonder how often I will write this off-season: "Sean Williams is not a good rebounder." In fact, his rebounding numbers last year were almost identical to those Marcus Williams posted. Sean Williams will block a lot of shots but in between shot blocking opportunities his attention wanders. He's a better dunker than Jason Collins but other than that their offensive games are similarly limited.
New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets certainly won't have to worry about their first-round draft pick duplicating any of Peja Stojakovic's skill set. Julian Wright will be immediately useful defensively and as a rebounder on both the offensive and defensive glass. He can finish in transition and is a good passer. If he simplifies his game off the dribble and improves his shooting he'll go down as a massive draft steal.
Haluska may fix any Chris Andersen jones the Hornets franchise has. He's extremely athletic, but at his size, I'm not sure that can make up for his relative lack of skill.
New York Knicks: Wilson Chandler doesn't know how to play basketball. Demetris Nichols can score, but nobody's going to let him touch the ball. Zach Randolph is better than Eddy Curry, but it's not like Eddy Curry does anything other than make a high percentage of his field goal attempts so he can't complement Randolph. Fred Jones might be an upgrade over Mardy Collins the next time Isiah feels the need for blood vengeance.
Orlando Magic: I like Reyshawn Terry a lot but I'm not sure I like him better than Trevor Ariza. Terry can shoot so he might get some minutes at the 2.
Philadelphia 76ers: Thaddeus Young did not show any interest in defending, rebounding, or scoring in the paint at Georgia Tech. He'll have to attempt at least two of those tasks to become a good NBA player. My guess is that he's content to be a jump shooter who gets the occasional dunk in transition or off an offensive rebound.
Jason Smith scored well at Colorado State, but he turned the ball over a hell of a lot. He could be little more than an upgrade over Shavlik Randolph. Derrick Byars has his uses, but are they different than those that Korver, Carney, and Bobby Jones offer? Herbert Hill could parlay his ability to play on both ends of the floor into serious minutes very quickly considering the alternatives.
Phoenix Suns: Alando Tucker can't shoot and he didn't rebound much at Wisconsin. He'll have to make the volume scorer to defensive specialist transition that Adrian Griffin eventually managed. DJ Strawberry could very well be the more productive NBA player.
Portland TrailBlazers: Putting Fernandez and Koponen aside for the moment as I'm ignorant, Portland acquired the best player in the draft, the point guard of the last two national champions (I'm skeptical that Taurean Green will be a useful NBA player, but I wouldn't be shocked if he figured out how to become one.), and picked up Josh McRoberts at a cost appropriate to his abilities. Now all Kevin Pritchard has to do is find a decent small forward.
They also got Channing Frye who figures to fit in nicely alongside either Oden or Aldridge. For the record, Frye is not very much like LaMarcus Aldridge at all. Aldridge rebounds, plays defense, and has a nascent post game.
Sacramento Kings: This may be the first time I'm glad they left Kansas City 22 years ago.
San Antonio Spurs: Splitter is worthy reward for running your organization really well. They're also buying low on Marcus Williams who had a fine freshman season at Arizona but was party to the implosion in Tucson last year. He could give them something like Stephen Jackson's contributions to the '03 NBA Champions.
Giorgis Printezis looked a lot like Eli Roth.
Seattle SuperSonics: I think you can afford to pay Wally Szczerbiak $25 million over the next two years for however many healthy games he can provide you when you're only paying $6 million for Kevin Durant and Jeff Green's combined production. Delonte West should provide a lot of good minutes in the backcourt and one has to assume that some of the current roster will be traded over the summer.
Toronto Raptors: No pick. No trade.
Utah Jazz: Morris Almond should be able to play alongside Ronnie Brewer while backing up Derek Fisher and Matt Harpring, thus preventing Gordan Giricek from playing 1200 minutes again next year. I deem that a success.
Washington Wizards: I fail to see how Nick Young complements Arenas, Butler, and Jamison any better than Jarvis Hayes did. Young is coming off a career year. He'll have to improve significantly to be that good again (relative to the level of competition, of course).
Dominic McGuire is an undersized, under-skilled four who doesn't contribute as much on the offensive glass as those types of guys generally have to in order to be useful. He's this draft's poor man's Stephane Lasme.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Draft Preview Summary
Previously: Oden v. Durant, First-Round Point Guards, Second-Round Point Guards, First-Round Shooting Guards, Lottery Small Forwards, Second Tier Small Forwards, Wilson Chandler, Lottery Post Players, Second Tier Post Players, Hollinger's Collegiate Evaluation
Just like the last two years, I break the (non-International) players down into the following categories:
Best players (I've seen) in the draft
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Joakim Noah
5. Corey Brewer
6. Mike Conley, Jr.
7. Jeff Green
8. Julian Wright
Safe, useful picks to fill needs (some even with upside)
1. Al Thornton
2. Acie Law IV
3. Reyshawn Terry
4. Aaron Gray
5. Zabian Dowdell
6. Arron Afflalo
7. Glen Davis
Worth a flyer if you can afford it (good role players and/or high-risk talents)
1. Brandan Wright
2. Daequan Cook
3. Nick Young
4. Javaris Crittenton
5. Thaddeus Young
6. Jason Smith
7. Morris Almond
8. Rodney Stuckey
9. Derrick Byars
10. Jared Dudley
11. Nick Fazekas
12. Gabe Pruitt
13. Marcus Williams
Hoping your team doesn't waste a valuable pick on a bust
1. Sean Williams
2. Spencer Hawes
3. Wilson Chandler
4. Josh McRoberts
5. Taurean Green
6. Alando Tucker
Just like the last two years, I break the (non-International) players down into the following categories:
Best players (I've seen) in the draft
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Joakim Noah
5. Corey Brewer
6. Mike Conley, Jr.
7. Jeff Green
8. Julian Wright
Safe, useful picks to fill needs (some even with upside)
1. Al Thornton
2. Acie Law IV
3. Reyshawn Terry
4. Aaron Gray
5. Zabian Dowdell
6. Arron Afflalo
7. Glen Davis
Worth a flyer if you can afford it (good role players and/or high-risk talents)
1. Brandan Wright
2. Daequan Cook
3. Nick Young
4. Javaris Crittenton
5. Thaddeus Young
6. Jason Smith
7. Morris Almond
8. Rodney Stuckey
9. Derrick Byars
10. Jared Dudley
11. Nick Fazekas
12. Gabe Pruitt
13. Marcus Williams
Hoping your team doesn't waste a valuable pick on a bust
1. Sean Williams
2. Spencer Hawes
3. Wilson Chandler
4. Josh McRoberts
5. Taurean Green
6. Alando Tucker
Hollinger's Collegiate Evaluation
Previously: Oden v. Durant, First-Round Point Guards, Second-Round Point Guards, First-Round Shooting Guards, Lottery Small Forwards, Second Tier Small Forwards, Wilson Chandler, Lottery Post Players, Second Tier Post Players
Hollinger went and took some of the wind out of my sails this afternoon. It's impressive and interesting work which appears (the formula he uses isn't published with the article) to have all the benefits and drawbacks of one, true number formulas.
To take one example, I have a hard time seeing how Wilson Chandler's statistical profile scores slightly better than Julian Wright's.
Their 06-07 seasons:
And their freshman seasons:
Going down Hollinger's six factors indicative of pro success
1. Age: Wright is 12 days younge than Chandler. I'd guess that makes them even.
2. Steals: Wright averaged 3 steals/100 possessions as a sophomore and 2.9 S/100 as a freshman. Chandler averaged 1.3 S/100 as a sophomore down from 1.7 S/100 as a freshman. That's a significant, consistent advantage to Wright.
3. Blocks: Wright averaged 2.7 blocks/100 possessions as a sophomore and 3.4 BS/100 as a freshman. Chandler averaged 2.7 BS/100 as a sophomore and 3.3 BS/100 as a freshman. I would assume this one is even also.
4. Rebounds: Quoting Hollinger, "Boards, especially offensive boards, are a good indicator of future pro success as well." Wright got 159% as many offensive boards per opportunity as did Chandler last year and 115% as many offensive boards per opportunity as did Chandler in their freshman seasons. Chandler did have significant defensive rebounding edge in their freshman seasons (144%) but Wright was the better defensive rebounder last year (109%). Wright is a significantly better offensive rebounder. That the formula likely doesn't take into account Wright's improvement as a rebounder between his freshman and sophomore seasons is a limitation.
5. 3-Pointers: The formula would be really helpful here as this could be where Chandler must make up a lot of ground on Wright. Chandler has made 41 more three-pointers than Julian Wright in their college careers. Of course, Chandler needed 137 attempts to make 41 threes. Julian Wright can't make three-pointers. This is a fact. At least he has the good sense not to attempt them.
6. Pure Point Ratio: Whatever ground Chandler doesn't make up with his three-point shooting is made up here. Pure point ratio = (((A*2/3)-TO)*100)/Min. Wright and Chandler both played 1048 minutes last year. Chandler had 48 assists and 54 turnovers. Wright had 82 assists and 91 turnovers. Chandler's PPR is -2.1. Wright's is -3.5.
I would have guessed that Wright's extra assists and slightly better A:TO would be an advantage. I do not, however, write basketball analysis for a living. This is something I obviously need to study.
That I find it difficult to imagine a world where Wilson Chandler has roughly equal potential to Julian Wright as basketball players doesn't diminish the usefulness of Hollinger's formula. (Again, I'd like to know what the formula is but I understand why might not want to publish it.)
I don't think that Thaddeus Young, Nick Fazekas, Josh McRoberts, and Jared Dudley have more potential than Joakim Noah (Noah, Julian Wright, and Brewer really look bad in this formula. They are also three of the best defensive players in the draft in that they were good defensive players in college and they figure to be physically able to guard at least one position well in the NBA.) but I'm also the guy who thought that PJ Tucker deserved to be taken in the lottery last year. I'm used to being wrong some of the time and I like learning new things.
Here's hoping Hollinger continues to discuss the particulars of his formula and that he's wrong and I'm right about some of these players.
Hollinger went and took some of the wind out of my sails this afternoon. It's impressive and interesting work which appears (the formula he uses isn't published with the article) to have all the benefits and drawbacks of one, true number formulas.
To take one example, I have a hard time seeing how Wilson Chandler's statistical profile scores slightly better than Julian Wright's.
Their 06-07 seasons:
| Year | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Chandler | 79.1 | 48.8 | 65.1 | 1.03 | 28.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.9 | 18.3 |
| J Wright | 68.3 | 55.3 | 61.3 | 1.14 | 25.2 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 |
And their freshman seasons:
| Year | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Chandler | 70.0 | 45.7 | 66.2 | 0.98 | 23.6 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 20.4 |
| J Wright | 50.3 | 57.8 | 55.7 | 1.17 | 24.3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 14.2 |
Going down Hollinger's six factors indicative of pro success
1. Age: Wright is 12 days younge than Chandler. I'd guess that makes them even.
2. Steals: Wright averaged 3 steals/100 possessions as a sophomore and 2.9 S/100 as a freshman. Chandler averaged 1.3 S/100 as a sophomore down from 1.7 S/100 as a freshman. That's a significant, consistent advantage to Wright.
3. Blocks: Wright averaged 2.7 blocks/100 possessions as a sophomore and 3.4 BS/100 as a freshman. Chandler averaged 2.7 BS/100 as a sophomore and 3.3 BS/100 as a freshman. I would assume this one is even also.
4. Rebounds: Quoting Hollinger, "Boards, especially offensive boards, are a good indicator of future pro success as well." Wright got 159% as many offensive boards per opportunity as did Chandler last year and 115% as many offensive boards per opportunity as did Chandler in their freshman seasons. Chandler did have significant defensive rebounding edge in their freshman seasons (144%) but Wright was the better defensive rebounder last year (109%). Wright is a significantly better offensive rebounder. That the formula likely doesn't take into account Wright's improvement as a rebounder between his freshman and sophomore seasons is a limitation.
5. 3-Pointers: The formula would be really helpful here as this could be where Chandler must make up a lot of ground on Wright. Chandler has made 41 more three-pointers than Julian Wright in their college careers. Of course, Chandler needed 137 attempts to make 41 threes. Julian Wright can't make three-pointers. This is a fact. At least he has the good sense not to attempt them.
6. Pure Point Ratio: Whatever ground Chandler doesn't make up with his three-point shooting is made up here. Pure point ratio = (((A*2/3)-TO)*100)/Min. Wright and Chandler both played 1048 minutes last year. Chandler had 48 assists and 54 turnovers. Wright had 82 assists and 91 turnovers. Chandler's PPR is -2.1. Wright's is -3.5.
I would have guessed that Wright's extra assists and slightly better A:TO would be an advantage. I do not, however, write basketball analysis for a living. This is something I obviously need to study.
That I find it difficult to imagine a world where Wilson Chandler has roughly equal potential to Julian Wright as basketball players doesn't diminish the usefulness of Hollinger's formula. (Again, I'd like to know what the formula is but I understand why might not want to publish it.)
I don't think that Thaddeus Young, Nick Fazekas, Josh McRoberts, and Jared Dudley have more potential than Joakim Noah (Noah, Julian Wright, and Brewer really look bad in this formula. They are also three of the best defensive players in the draft in that they were good defensive players in college and they figure to be physically able to guard at least one position well in the NBA.) but I'm also the guy who thought that PJ Tucker deserved to be taken in the lottery last year. I'm used to being wrong some of the time and I like learning new things.
Here's hoping Hollinger continues to discuss the particulars of his formula and that he's wrong and I'm right about some of these players.
Second Tier Post Players
Previously: Oden v. Durant, First-Round Point Guards, Second-Round Point Guards, First-Round Shooting Guards, Lottery Small Forwards, Wilson Chandler, Lottery Post Players
In alphabetical order, the 2006-07 seasons of Glen Davis, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Gray, Josh McRoberts, Jason Smith, and Sean Williams:
Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions
Taking these guys alphabetically...
If you take out three games Davis missed through injury, he played 86.8% of the LSU's minutes last year. If he doesn't get any bigger then conditioning will be less of a concern than his shooting percentage. To be fair to Davis he hasn't played with good guards. I would not be surprised if he could be more efficient for an NBA team as he's unlikely to carry a similar offensive load.
Fazekas illustrates my concerns about Spencer Hawes. Fazekas turned into an outstanding college player (he should have been the National Player of the Year in '05-'06) but because of his lack of athleticism he's a probable second round pick as a 22-year-old. Fazekas couldn't even get a guarantee in last year's weak first round.
Whatever happens in the NBA, Fazekas's college career was truly outstanding. (Against slightly lesser opposition) for three straight years he scored at a similar level of volume and efficiency as Durant did last year.
No matter how (relatively) up-tempo the NBA gets the ability to rebound will always have value. Aaron Gray is unlikely to ever see significant minutes but I bet he's productive in the minutes he earns.
The back surgery between his freshman and sophomore years really appeared to limit his mobility. McRoberts was an efficient scorer his freshman year but he didn't take on much of the scoring load. As a sophomore, he attempted to do so and failed, losing much of his efficiency in the process.
Right now he's a bigger Luke Walton without a jump shot or the offensive rebounds. (Shelden Williams graduated and McRoberts actually managed to grab fewer offensive rebounds per opportunity.)
He is a pretty good shot blocker from the weak side but he won't be able to keep any one in front of him if forced to guard on the perimeter.
I've never seen Jason Smith play. The numbers show offensive improvement during his time at Colorado State though he turns the ball over an awful lot especially when one considers the level of his competition. The rebounding and shot blocking is encouraging, but it's almost impossible to average less than 1 steal per 100 possessions which makes me question his overall defensive ability at this point.
Sean Williams is not a good defensive player, he's a great shot blocker. He shows little interest in anything else (At least on the court. He seems quite committed to his off-court regimen.) as his defensive rebounding numbers attest. I put the odds at 50-50 that he's still in the league by Summer 2010.
Post player rankings, in full:
1. Greg Oden
2. Al Horford
3. Joakim Noah
4. Brandan Wright
5. Spencer Hawes
6. Aaron Gray
7. Jason Smith
8. Nick Fazekas
9. Glen Davis
10. Josh McRoberts
11. Sean Williams
In alphabetical order, the 2006-07 seasons of Glen Davis, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Gray, Josh McRoberts, Jason Smith, and Sean Williams:
Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Davis | 78.8 | 50.7 | 71.3 | 1.13 | 31.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 20.8 |
| Fazekas | 71.0 | 59.2 | 84.1 | 1.28 | 39.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 12.0 | 28.4 |
| Gray | 67.7 | 56.5 | 54.8 | 1.15 | 31.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 25.4 |
| McRoberts | 87.2 | 50.9 | 66.4 | 1.10 | 22.5 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 19.4 |
| Smith | 74.8 | 57.9 | 77.0 | 1.29 | 32.5 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.3 | 26.7 |
| Williams | 36.3 | 54.8 | 70.0 | 1.21 | 23.1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 15.7 |
Taking these guys alphabetically...
Glen Davis
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 71.5 | 51.9 | 69.8 | 1.16 | 27.7 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 14.4 | 21.1 |
| SO | 78.9 | 50.1 | 67.6 | 1.09 | 34.0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 14.8 | 19.0 |
| JR | 78.8 | 50.7 | 71.3 | 1.13 | 31.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 20.8 |
If you take out three games Davis missed through injury, he played 86.8% of the LSU's minutes last year. If he doesn't get any bigger then conditioning will be less of a concern than his shooting percentage. To be fair to Davis he hasn't played with good guards. I would not be surprised if he could be more efficient for an NBA team as he's unlikely to carry a similar offensive load.
Nick Fazekas
| Year | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 67.0 | 56.7 | 77.1 | 1.21 | 26.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 9.1 | 22.0 |
| SO | 78.5 | 53.9 | 78.9 | 1.21 | 39.1 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 24.8 |
| JR | 79.0 | 55.9 | 84.6 | 1.23 | 41.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 11.1 | 24.4 |
| SR | 71.0 | 59.2 | 84.1 | 1.28 | 39.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 12.0 | 28.4 |
Fazekas illustrates my concerns about Spencer Hawes. Fazekas turned into an outstanding college player (he should have been the National Player of the Year in '05-'06) but because of his lack of athleticism he's a probable second round pick as a 22-year-old. Fazekas couldn't even get a guarantee in last year's weak first round.
Whatever happens in the NBA, Fazekas's college career was truly outstanding. (Against slightly lesser opposition) for three straight years he scored at a similar level of volume and efficiency as Durant did last year.
Aaron Gray
| Year | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 6.0 | 55.0 | 57.1 | 1.13 | 19.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 14.5 | 15.4 |
| SO | 28.7 | 57.6 | 60.9 | 1.20 | 23.4 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 12.9 | 16.2 |
| JR | 69.2 | 52.6 | 63.4 | 1.13 | 30.3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 15.7 | 27.0 |
| SR | 67.7 | 56.5 | 54.8 | 1.15 | 31.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 25.4 |
No matter how (relatively) up-tempo the NBA gets the ability to rebound will always have value. Aaron Gray is unlikely to ever see significant minutes but I bet he's productive in the minutes he earns.
Josh McRoberts
| Year | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 61.1 | 61.8 | 66.4 | 1.29 | 20.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 14.2 |
| SO | 87.2 | 50.9 | 66.4 | 1.10 | 22.5 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 19.4 |
The back surgery between his freshman and sophomore years really appeared to limit his mobility. McRoberts was an efficient scorer his freshman year but he didn't take on much of the scoring load. As a sophomore, he attempted to do so and failed, losing much of his efficiency in the process.
Right now he's a bigger Luke Walton without a jump shot or the offensive rebounds. (Shelden Williams graduated and McRoberts actually managed to grab fewer offensive rebounds per opportunity.)
He is a pretty good shot blocker from the weak side but he won't be able to keep any one in front of him if forced to guard on the perimeter.
Jason Smith
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 55.9 | 56.2 | 68.4 | 1.20 | 26.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 16.3 |
| SO | 71.4 | 52.5 | 76.3 | 1.18 | 32.8 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10.6 | 19.5 |
| JR | 74.8 | 57.9 | 77.0 | 1.29 | 32.5 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.3 | 26.7 |
I've never seen Jason Smith play. The numbers show offensive improvement during his time at Colorado State though he turns the ball over an awful lot especially when one considers the level of his competition. The rebounding and shot blocking is encouraging, but it's almost impossible to average less than 1 steal per 100 possessions which makes me question his overall defensive ability at this point.
Sean Williams
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| FR | 38.2 | 65.2 | 52.0 | 1.27 | 14.8 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| SO | 31.9 | 55.2 | 51.4 | 1.12 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 15.1 |
| JR | 36.3 | 54.8 | 70.0 | 1.21 | 23.1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 15.7 |
Sean Williams is not a good defensive player, he's a great shot blocker. He shows little interest in anything else (At least on the court. He seems quite committed to his off-court regimen.) as his defensive rebounding numbers attest. I put the odds at 50-50 that he's still in the league by Summer 2010.
Post player rankings, in full:
1. Greg Oden
2. Al Horford
3. Joakim Noah
4. Brandan Wright
5. Spencer Hawes
6. Aaron Gray
7. Jason Smith
8. Nick Fazekas
9. Glen Davis
10. Josh McRoberts
11. Sean Williams
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