I define the at-risk games I'm tracking as follows: all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams. Obviously, until March 11th, I don't know exactly which teams fit the third of those criteria. So I make assumptions and try to keep those assumptions as conservative as possible.
As of today, I'm including home wins over the following teams in at-risk profiles: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Kansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Southern Illinois, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Butler, Air Force, Memphis, Nevada, and Winthrop.
Less than a month out, those are the locks per my determination and subject to change.