At 8-4 in Big East play and with home games remaining against St. John's and Seton Hall, Louisville has to be favored to win at least 10 conference games. Both of their remaining road games (@Marquette, @UConn) are winnable, if unlikely.As of today, Louisville's at-risk profile looks like this:| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Louisville | 4-8 | 101 | 103 | -2 |
| vs. Big East | 8-4 | 108 | 98 | +10 |
Wins: @South Florida (+39), @DePaul (+13), @Cincinnati (+24), @Pittsburgh (+16)Losses: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12), @Villanova (-8), Georgetown (-17)Last night's convincing win @Pittsburgh at least puts Louisville on the bubble. Though they're third in the Big East in average efficiency margin, they certainly don't have the third-best non-conference performance to go along with that. They figure to need to win at least one game on the road and/or in the Big East Tournament to separate themselves from the mass of mediocre big conference teams that will contend for the final at-large bids. They're playing better than the likes of Oregon, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Illinois, and Oklahoma State at this point in the season, but it sure would have helped to beat Dayton or UMass.
All conferences ranked by average efficiency margin. Mid-major report coming tomorrow. Updated at-risk profiles appearing later in the week.ACC| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| North Carolina | +20 | 6-2 |
| Duke | +11 | 5-4 |
| Boston College | +8 | 7-2 |
| Virginia | +8 | 7-2 |
| Florida St | +4 | 5-4 |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | 6-3 |
| Clemson | -2 | 4-5 |
| Maryland | -4 | 3-5 |
| Georgia Tech | -5 | 3-6 |
| NC State | -9 | 3-5 |
| Wake Forest | -12 | 2-8 |
| Miami, FL | -18 | 2-7 |
Big East| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Georgetown | +21 | 6-2 |
| Pittsburgh | +18 | 8-1 |
| Louisville | +10 | 6-3 |
| West Virginia | +9 | 7-3 |
| Marquette | +4 | 7-2 |
| Notre Dame | +3 | 6-4 |
| Providence | +3 | 4-4 |
| Syracuse | +1 | 5-5 |
| UConn | +1 | 4-6 |
| Villanova | 0 | 4-5 |
| DePaul | -4 | 4-6 |
| Seton Hall | -9 | 3-6 |
| South Florida | -10 | 3-6 |
| St. John's | -15 | 4-6 |
| Cincinnati | -15 | 1-7 |
| Rutgers | -16 | 2-8 |
Big 10| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Ohio St | +20 | 8-1 |
| Wisconsin | +19 | 8-1 |
| Indiana | +11 | 6-3 |
| Michigan St | +8 | 4-5 |
| Michigan | +3 | 4-4 |
| Iowa | 0 | 5-4 |
| Illinois | -3 | 5-5 |
| Purdue | -5 | 4-5 |
| Penn St | -13 | 1-7 |
| Minnesota | -15 | 3-6 |
| Northwestern | -23 | 1-8 |
Big 12| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Texas A&M | +16 | 8-1 |
| Kansas | +16 | 6-2 |
| Oklahoma | +10 | 4-4 |
| Texas | +8 | 6-3 |
| Kansas St | +7 | 6-2 |
| Texas Tech | -2 | 4-4 |
| Missouri | -4 | 2-6 |
| Nebraska | -5 | 2-5 |
| Oklahoma St | -6 | 4-3 |
| Iowa St | -6 | 3-5 |
| Baylor | -16 | 2-7 |
| Colorado | -19 | 2-7 |
MVC| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Creighton | +12 | 10-3 |
| Missouri St | +11 | 8-5 |
| Southern Illinois | +9 | 10-3 |
| Wichita St | +1 | 6-7 |
| Northern Iowa | 0 | 7-6 |
| Bradley | -1 | 7-6 |
| Evansville | -3 | 5-8 |
| Illinois St | -9 | 4-9 |
| Indiana St | -10 | 5-8 |
| Drake | -11 | 3-10 |
Pac-10| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| UCLA | +15 | 9-2 |
| Washington St | +14 | 8-3 |
| USC | +11 | 8-3 |
| Arizona | +10 | 6-5 |
| Stanford | +6 | 7-3 |
| Oregon | 0 | 7-4 |
| Washington | -7 | 4-7 |
| Cal | -10 | 4-6 |
| Arizona St | -16 | 0-11 |
| Oregon St | -25 | 1-10 |
SEC| SEC West | Eff Margin | Record |
| Arkansas | +4 | 3-5 |
| Ole Miss | +1 | 4-5 |
| Mississippi St | 0 | 3-5 |
| Alabama | -10 | 4-4 |
| Auburn | -10 | 4-5 |
| LSU | -10 | 2-6 |
| SEC East | Eff Margin | Record |
| Florida | +25 | 8-0 |
| Kentucky | +17 | 6-2 |
| Vanderbilt | +5 | 6-3 |
| Georgia | +3 | 5-4 |
| Tennessee | -5 | 3-5 |
| South Carolina | -20 | 2-6 |
