Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Second Tier Post Players

Previously: Oden v. Durant, First-Round Point Guards, Second-Round Point Guards, First-Round Shooting Guards, Lottery Small Forwards, Wilson Chandler, Lottery Post Players

In alphabetical order, the 2006-07 seasons of Glen Davis, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Gray, Josh McRoberts, Jason Smith, and Sean Williams:


Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

Name%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
Davis78.850.771.31.1331.24.05.01.72.013.420.8
Fazekas71.059.284.11.2839.53.34.03.01.512.028.4
Gray67.756.554.81.1531.33.83.43.90.914.825.4
McRoberts87.250.966.41.1022.56.04.24.32.07.619.4
Smith74.857.977.01.2932.53.86.63.01.014.326.7
Williams36.354.870.01.2123.12.34.49.52.79.615.7

Taking these guys alphabetically...

Glen Davis

Name%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
FR71.551.969.81.1627.72.13.42.82.014.421.1
SO78.950.167.61.0934.02.54.92.12.414.819.0
JR78.850.771.31.1331.24.05.01.72.013.420.8

If you take out three games Davis missed through injury, he played 86.8% of the LSU's minutes last year. If he doesn't get any bigger then conditioning will be less of a concern than his shooting percentage. To be fair to Davis he hasn't played with good guards. I would not be surprised if he could be more efficient for an NBA team as he's unlikely to carry a similar offensive load.

Nick Fazekas

Year%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
FR67.056.777.11.2126.41.02.02.81.19.122.0
SO78.553.978.91.2139.11.84.13.01.27.324.8
JR79.055.984.61.2341.23.93.42.82.111.124.4
SR71.059.284.11.2839.53.34.03.01.512.028.4

Fazekas illustrates my concerns about Spencer Hawes. Fazekas turned into an outstanding college player (he should have been the National Player of the Year in '05-'06) but because of his lack of athleticism he's a probable second round pick as a 22-year-old. Fazekas couldn't even get a guarantee in last year's weak first round.

Whatever happens in the NBA, Fazekas's college career was truly outstanding. (Against slightly lesser opposition) for three straight years he scored at a similar level of volume and efficiency as Durant did last year.

Aaron Gray

Year%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
FR6.055.057.11.1319.44.52.22.20.014.515.4
SO28.757.660.91.2023.43.75.63.00.912.916.2
JR69.252.663.41.1330.34.05.83.21.415.727.0
SR67.756.554.81.1531.33.83.43.90.914.825.4

No matter how (relatively) up-tempo the NBA gets the ability to rebound will always have value. Aaron Gray is unlikely to ever see significant minutes but I bet he's productive in the minutes he earns.

Josh McRoberts

Year%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
FR61.161.866.41.2920.43.53.33.02.78.114.2
SO87.250.966.41.1022.56.04.24.32.07.619.4

The back surgery between his freshman and sophomore years really appeared to limit his mobility. McRoberts was an efficient scorer his freshman year but he didn't take on much of the scoring load. As a sophomore, he attempted to do so and failed, losing much of his efficiency in the process.

Right now he's a bigger Luke Walton without a jump shot or the offensive rebounds. (Shelden Williams graduated and McRoberts actually managed to grab fewer offensive rebounds per opportunity.)

He is a pretty good shot blocker from the weak side but he won't be able to keep any one in front of him if forced to guard on the perimeter.

Jason Smith

Name%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
FR55.956.268.41.2026.24.35.03.41.011.316.3
SO71.452.576.31.1832.84.67.34.31.310.619.5
JR74.857.977.01.2932.53.86.63.01.014.326.7

I've never seen Jason Smith play. The numbers show offensive improvement during his time at Colorado State though he turns the ball over an awful lot especially when one considers the level of his competition. The rebounding and shot blocking is encouraging, but it's almost impossible to average less than 1 steal per 100 possessions which makes me question his overall defensive ability at this point.

Sean Williams

Name%MineFG%FT%PPWSPtsATOBSSOR%DR%
FR38.265.252.01.2714.82.13.08.30.910.612.5
SO31.955.251.41.1211.21.33.27.41.98.415.1
JR36.354.870.01.2123.12.34.49.52.79.615.7

Sean Williams is not a good defensive player, he's a great shot blocker. He shows little interest in anything else (At least on the court. He seems quite committed to his off-court regimen.) as his defensive rebounding numbers attest. I put the odds at 50-50 that he's still in the league by Summer 2010.

Post player rankings, in full:

1. Greg Oden
2. Al Horford
3. Joakim Noah
4. Brandan Wright
5. Spencer Hawes
6. Aaron Gray
7. Jason Smith
8. Nick Fazekas
9. Glen Davis
10. Josh McRoberts
11. Sean Williams

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