Thursday, March 15, 2007

Hoopinion Reader(s)

You are cordially invited to HackTheBracket for the duration of the NCAA Tournament.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Potential winless teams in conference play

If you don't win a conference game, other teams don't get their wins on your home court included in your at-risk profile.

Current candidates for the application of this policy:

Arizona State (0-13), Pac-10: This is a tough one as Arizona State did beat Iowa at home Novemeber and have been frequently competitive at home. At-risk wins in limbo: Northern Arizona, Portland State, Davidson, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State.

East Carolina (0-11), C-USA: East Carolina started the year 2-1, with a home win over Morgan State and a win @UNC-Greensboro bracketing an overtime loss @Richmond. Since then they have failed to beat a Division 1 team. At-risk wins in limbo: South Florida, Winthrop, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, UAB, Central Florida, Southern Miss.

North Florida (0-14), Atlantic Sun: North Florida hasn't beaten a single Division 1 team so far this year. At-risk wins in limbo: Loyola (MD), Florida Atlantic, Binghamton, Florida A&M, Campbell, Gardner-Webb, Jacksonville, Stetson, Mercer, Kennesaw State, East Tennessee State.

MD-Eastern Shore (0-12), MEAC: Both of their Division 1 wins have come away from home. At-risk wins in limbo: Wagner, Dartmouth, Norfolk State, Delaware State, Florida A&M, Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, North Carolian A&T, South Carolina State.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Status of my at-risk assumptions

I define the at-risk games I'm tracking as follows: all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams. Obviously, until March 11th, I don't know exactly which teams fit the third of those criteria. So I make assumptions and try to keep those assumptions as conservative as possible.

As of today, I'm including home wins over the following teams in at-risk profiles: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Kansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Southern Illinois, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Butler, Air Force, Memphis, Nevada, and Winthrop.

Less than a month out, those are the locks per my determination and subject to change.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Down to cases: The WCC

Santa Clara won in Spokane last night, giving the Broncos a one-game lead over Gonzaga in the WCC regular season title race.

Gonzaga has a home game against Portland and road games @San Francisco and @San Diego to finish the season. Santa Clara gets San Diego at home before finishing @Pepperdine and @Loyola Marymount.

Santa Clara lost to Loyola Marymount at home in January, a result that appears to be Gonzaga's last, best hope to get a share of the conference title.

Having no idea how the tie-breaker for seeding in WCC Conference Tournament would work in the case of co-champions who split their regular season meetings (with Santa Clara a single point per 100 possessions to the good over the two games), let's speculate on which team would be favored to gain the WCC's automatic bid.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Gonzaga6-9107110-3
vs. WCC8-311296+16

Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), @Santa Clara (+13), @Portland (+21), @Stanford (+4), @Pepperdine (+37)

Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14), vs. Georgia (-13), vs. Duke (-19), vs. Nevada (-12), @Virginia (-32), @St. Mary's (-7), @Loyola-Marymount (-8), Santa Clara (-14)

Gonzaga wouldn't figure to have much of a chance hosting Memphis this Saturday with Josh Heytvelt. In the two games without him, they've barely topped a point per possession offensively. If Heytvelt is out for the rest of the year, I seriously doubt the selection committee takes Gonzaga's at-large bid seriously.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Santa Clara8-797970
vs. WCC9-210894+14

Wins: vs. Alabama State (+43), @Pacific (+27), @Stanford (+24), @San Diego (+17), @San Francisco (+6), @St. Mary's (+9), @Portland (+39), @Gonzaga (+14)

Losses: @Cal (-36), Nevada (-16), @Missouri State (-37), @Kentucky (-18), Air Force (-58), Gonzaga (-13), Loyola-Marymount (-4)

Santa Clara has almost caught Gonzaga in the WCC average efficiency margin standings, and, though they have an even worse resume for an at-large bid than does Gonzaga, I think they would have to be favored over a Heytvelt-less Zags squad in the WCC Tournament.

If they can't avenge their home loss to Loyola Marymount, though, I'd probably waffle on my speculative outcome.

Down to cases: Louisville

At 8-4 in Big East play and with home games remaining against St. John's and Seton Hall, Louisville has to be favored to win at least 10 conference games. Both of their remaining road games (@Marquette, @UConn) are winnable, if unlikely.

As of today, Louisville's at-risk profile looks like this:

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Louisville4-8101103-2
vs. Big East8-410898+10

Wins: @South Florida (+39), @DePaul (+13), @Cincinnati (+24), @Pittsburgh (+16)

Losses: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12), @Villanova (-8), Georgetown (-17)

Last night's convincing win @Pittsburgh at least puts Louisville on the bubble. Though they're third in the Big East in average efficiency margin, they certainly don't have the third-best non-conference performance to go along with that. They figure to need to win at least one game on the road and/or in the Big East Tournament to separate themselves from the mass of mediocre big conference teams that will contend for the final at-large bids. They're playing better than the likes of Oregon, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Illinois, and Oklahoma State at this point in the season, but it sure would have helped to beat Dayton or UMass.

Down to cases: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are 18-6, 5-5 in Big 12 play. Half of their wins are by 10 or fewer points per 100 possessions. Only one of their losses has been that narrow.

The at-risk profiles are designed to measure team quality looking forward. It is entirely appropriate that Oklahoma State get credit with the selection committee for all those close wins when considering their prospects for an at-large bid. However, as of last Saturday, Andy Glockner of ESPN.com still listed the Cowboys as a "lock" to make the NCAA Tournament. This despite being outscored by eight points per 100 possessions in conference play through eight games. (Following the narrow win over Texas Tech and the blowout loss at Texas, the Cowboys are now being outscored by ten points per 100 possessions against Big 12 opposition.)

The most likely final conference record for the Cowboys is 8-8. They have home games remaining against Missouri, Texas A&M, and Kansas State. They travel to Texas Tech, Baylor, and Nebraska. Considering that Oklahoma State has struggled to beat Baylor (+7), Texas (+5), Oklahoma (+9), and Texas Tech (+2) at home and has yet to win a road game in conference play they could realistically lose any of those games.

This is a team on the tournament bubble. Should they manage to split their final 6 games, they may well benefit from getting to play on Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament with its accompanying chance to guarantee a .500 record in conference play.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Oklahoma St5-698106-8
vs. Big 125-598108-10

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33), vs. Pittsburgh (+4)

Losses: vs. Tennessee (-5), @Kansas (-38), @Texas A&M (-26), @Colorado (-21), @Oklahoma (-14), @Texas (-39)

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Conference Standings Through 2/5/07

All conferences ranked by average efficiency margin. Mid-major report coming tomorrow. Updated at-risk profiles appearing later in the week.

ACC
TeamEff MarginRecord
North Carolina+206-2
Duke+115-4
Boston College+87-2
Virginia+87-2
Florida St+45-4
Virginia Tech06-3
Clemson-24-5
Maryland-43-5
Georgia Tech-53-6
NC State-93-5
Wake Forest-122-8
Miami, FL-182-7


Big East
TeamEff MarginRecord
Georgetown+216-2
Pittsburgh+188-1
Louisville+106-3
West Virginia+97-3
Marquette+47-2
Notre Dame+36-4
Providence+34-4
Syracuse+15-5
UConn+14-6
Villanova04-5
DePaul-44-6
Seton Hall-93-6
South Florida-103-6
St. John's-154-6
Cincinnati-151-7
Rutgers-162-8

Big 10
TeamEff MarginRecord
Ohio St+208-1
Wisconsin+198-1
Indiana+116-3
Michigan St+84-5
Michigan+34-4
Iowa05-4
Illinois-35-5
Purdue-54-5
Penn St-131-7
Minnesota-153-6
Northwestern-231-8

Big 12
TeamEff MarginRecord
Texas A&M+168-1
Kansas+166-2
Oklahoma+104-4
Texas+86-3
Kansas St+76-2
Texas Tech-24-4
Missouri-42-6
Nebraska-52-5
Oklahoma St-64-3
Iowa St-63-5
Baylor-162-7
Colorado-192-7

MVC
TeamEff MarginRecord
Creighton+1210-3
Missouri St+118-5
Southern Illinois+910-3
Wichita St+16-7
Northern Iowa07-6
Bradley-17-6
Evansville-35-8
Illinois St-94-9
Indiana St-105-8
Drake-113-10


Pac-10
TeamEff MarginRecord
UCLA+159-2
Washington St+148-3
USC+118-3
Arizona+106-5
Stanford+67-3
Oregon07-4
Washington-74-7
Cal-104-6
Arizona St-160-11
Oregon St-251-10


SEC
SEC WestEff MarginRecord
Arkansas+43-5
Ole Miss+14-5
Mississippi St03-5
Alabama-104-4
Auburn-104-5
LSU-102-6

SEC EastEff MarginRecord
Florida+258-0
Kentucky+176-2
Vanderbilt+56-3
Georgia+35-4
Tennessee-53-5
South Carolina-202-6

Monday, January 22, 2007

Big 12 Individual Leaders

STATS FROM CONFERENCE GAMES ONLY

*through January 21st
*must play 50 percent of team's minutes to qualify

Pct. of Team's Minutes Played
1. Jackson, TT: 96.9
2. Burgess, TT: 93.8
3. Zeno, TT: 93.1
4. Curry, OSU: 91.4
5. Jones, A&M: 88.1
6. Augustin, UT: 88.0
7. Durant, UT: 88.0
8. Richardson, NU: 87.5
9. Kirk, A&M: 86.9
10. Rush, KU: 86.7

eFG%
1. Kaun, KU: 74.1 (27 FGA)
2. Collins, KU: 71.4 (35 FGA)
3. Mason, UT: 69 (29 FGA)
4. Robinson, KU: 68.8 (16 FGA)
5. Curry, OSU: 64.1 (46 FGA)
6. Neal, OU: 64 (43 FGA)
7. Brown, MU: 63 (46 FGA)
8. Maric, NU: 62.5 (32 FGA)
9. Durant, UT: 61.2 (85 FGA)
10. Carter, OU: 58.5 (53 FGA)

...and the trailers

10. Griffin, OU: 42.4 (33 FGA)
9. Godbold, OU: 41.2 (34 FGA)
8. Rush, KU: 41 (50 FGA)
7. Chalmers, KU: 40.4 (26 FGA)
6. Jackson, TT: 40.2 (61 FGA)
5. Hoskins, KSU: 40.2 (61 FGA)
4. Strowbridge, NU: 37.5 (8 FGA)
3. Clark, ISU: 35.4 (24 FGA)
2. Bush, BU: 32 (25 FGA)
1. Monds, OSU: 21.7 (23 FGA)

PPWS
1. Robinson, KU: 1.45 (16 FGA + 6 FTA)
2. Collins, KU: 1.44 (35 FGA + 4 FTA)
3. Brown, MU: 1.43 (46 FGA + 31 FTA)
4. Kaun, KU: 1.42 (27 FGA + 9 FTA)
5. Curry, OSU: 1.38 (46 FGA + 27 FTA)
6. Mason, UT: 1.38 (29 FGA + 8 FTA)
7. Maric, NU: 1.36 (32 FGA + 21 FTA)
8. Durant, UT: 1.35 (85 FGA + 36 FTA)
9. Carter, OU: 1.31 (53 FGA + 31 FTA)
10. Neal, OU: 1.29 (43 FGA + 8 FTA)

...and the trailers

10. Williams, CU: 0.90 (29 FGA + 12 FTA)
9. Strowbridge, NU: 0.90 (8 FGA + 2 FTA)
8. Carter, BU: 0.89 (45 FGA + 3 FTA)
7. Wright, KU: 0.89 (34 FGA + 7 FTA)
6. Wright, KSU: 0.87 (39 FGA + 8 FTA)
5. Dove, OSU: 0.85 (8 FGA + 6 FTA)
4. Godbold, OU: 0.84 (34 FGA + 4 FTA)
3. Clark, ISU: 0.84 (24 FGA + 5 FTA)
2. Bush, BU: 0.83 (25 FGA + 12 FTA)
1. Monds, OSU: 0.58 (23 FGA + 7 FTA)

Points per 100 possessions
1. Durant, UT: 51.0
2. Brown, MU: 43.7
3. Maric, NU: 42.5
4. Carter, OU: 38.0
5. Hoskins, KSU: 34.7
6. Law, A&M: 34.4
7. Taylor, ISU: 33.6
8. Boggan, OSU: 32.9
9. Collins, KU: 31.3
10. White, NU: 29.7

...and the trailers

10. Chalmers, KU: 14.2
9. Robinson, KU: 13.8
8. Burgess, TT: 13.4
7. Bush, BU: 12.8
6. Horton, MU: 11.8
5. Kirk, A&M: 11.8
4. Clark, ISU: 8.8
3. Monds, OSU: 8.4
2. Strowbridge, NU: 8.2
1. Dove, OSU: 4.8

Assists per 100 possessions
1. Augustin, UT: 11.24
2. Collins, KU: 9.45
3. Coleman, CU: 8.37
4. Richardson, NU: 7.71
5. Robinson, KU: 7.67
6. Hannah, MU: 7.10
7. Taylor, ISU: 6.44
8. Johnson, OU: 6.41
9. Chalmers, KU: 6.36
10. Perry, NU: 5.91

Assist-to-turnover ratio
1. Perry, NU: 7.00
2. Strowbridge, NU: 4.00
3. Carter, BU: 3.33
4. Augustin, UT: 3.00
5. Richardson, NU: 3.00
6. Carter, OU: 3.00
7. Henry, NU: 2.50
8. Johnson, OU: 2.40
9. Kirk, A&M: 2.25
10. Robinson, KU: 2.14

Turnovers per 100 possessions
1. Perry, NU: 0.84
2. Strowbridge, NU: 1.02
3. Monds, OSU: 1.12
4. Kirk, A&M: 1.74
5. Jackson, TT: 2.02

...and the trailers
6. Wright, KU: 7.09
5. Coleman, CU: 7.17
4. Roby, CU: 7.25
3. Maric, NU: 7.58
2. Eaton, OSU: 7.96
1. Taylor, ISU: 8.94

Steals per 100 possessions
1. Chalmers, KU: 5.44
2. Lyons, MU: 5.06
3. Horton, MU: 4.58
4. Richardson, NU: 4.42
5. Coleman, CU: 4.05
6. Godbold, OU: 3.68
7. Wright, KU: 3.58
8. Augustin, UT: 3.39
9. Eaton, OSU: 3.35
10. Crocker, OU: 3.27
10. Griffin, OU: 3.27

Blocks per 100 possessions
1. Kaun, KU: 5.10
2. Wright, KU: 4.18
3. Hubalek, ISU: 3.75
4. James, UT: 3.28
5. Dove, OSU: 3.16
6. Rogers, BU: 2.96
7. Williams, CU: 2.53

Offensive Rebound Pct
1. James, UT: 15
2. Carter, OU: 14.6
3. Hoskins, KSU: 13.7
4. Durant, UT: 13.3
5. Boggan, OSU: 12.8
6. Griffin, OU: 12.8
7. W Johnson, ISU: 12.3
8. Maric, NU: 12.1
9. Hubalek, ISU: 11.8
10. Wright, KU: 9.6

Defensive Rebound Pct
1. Coleman, CU: 27.9
2. Jones, A&M: 27.8
3. Durant, UT: 27.5
4. Wright, KU: 26.1
5. Maric, NU: 24.9
6. W Johnson, ISU: 24.6
7. Hubalek, ISU: 23.6
8. Wright, KSU: 21.7
9. Kavaliauskas, A&M: 20.3
10. Boggan, OSU: 20.1

Friday, January 19, 2007

Conference Standings (by average efficiency margin) through 1/18/07

The at-risk profile aren't updated and it's Friday. These will have to do until next week when I promise updated at-risk profiles and individual stats (once teams have played half of their conference games).

ACC
TeamEff MarginRecord
Boston College+195-0
North Carolina+163-1
Duke+122-2
Georgia Tech+32-2
Virginia+22-2
Virginia Tech+13-1
Clemson-33-2
NC State-81-3
Florida St-81-3
Miami, FL-102-3
Maryland-101-3
Wake Forest-131-4


Big 10

Big 12
TeamEff MarginRecord
Texas+183-1
Kansas+163-0
Texas A&M+163-0
Texas Tech+122-1
Oklahoma+72-2
Kansas St+12-2
Iowa St02-2
Oklahoma St-92-1
Baylor-101-3
Missouri-120-4
Colorado-201-3
Nebraska-200-2


Big East
TeamEff MarginRecord
Pittsburgh+185-0
West Virginia+113-2
Syracuse+104-1
Georgetown+92-2
Lousiville+82-2
DePaul+63-2
Providence+62-2
UConn+22-3
Marquette03-2
Notre Dame-23-2
Seton Hall-33-2
Villanova-32-3
Rutgers-131-4
Cincinnati-150-3
St. John's-161-4
South Florida-211-4



MVC
TeamEff MarginRecord
Creighton+136-2
Missouri St+125-3
Southern Illinois+85-3
Northern Iowa+35-2
Wichita St+33-5
Bradley-44-4
Evansville-43-5
Indiana St-64-3
Illinois St-122-6
Drake-122-6


Pac-10
TeamEff MarginRecord
USC+154-2
Washington St+114-2
UCLA+95-1
Oregon+75-1
Arizona+64-3
Cal-34-2
Stanford-33-3
Washington-71-5
Arizona St-160-7
Oregon St-181-5


SEC
SEC WestEff MarginRecord
Arkansas+41-3
LSU+12-1
Mississippi St01-2
Auburn-82-2
Ole Miss-111-3
Alabama-151-2


SEC EastEff MarginRecord
Kentucky+304-0
Florida+303-0
Georgia+93-1
Vanderbilt+22-2
Tennessee01-2
South Carolina-500-3

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Point Shootout: The Tortoise and The Hare Edition

I think it's useful to remember that nowhere in the story of the Tortoise and the Hare does the Tortoise have hernia surgery.

Mr. Artest is setting the bar awfully high (low?) while Mr. Smith is recuperating.

Through games of 1/9/07
Ron Artest: 26G, 24-94, 25.5%, 2.69 misses per game
Josh Smith: 25G, 19-70, 27.1%, 2.04 misses per game

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Big 12 Predictions

1. Kansas 13-3
2. Texas A&M 12-4

Kansas and Texas A&M appear to be a bit better than the rest of the conference though I'm not convinced either team is particularly good and I wouldn't be surprised to see either team lose any single game other than those against Colorado, Iowa State, or Baylor. Even if they don't play any better than the Aggies, Kansas has a better chance of winning the conference title by virtue of their easier schedule.

3. Texas 10-6

Texas gets Missouri and Kansas State at home and I think they are well-suited to trouble Nebraska in Lincoln. As I mentioned yesterday, though I don't expect massive improvements on defense, Texas does have room to get better just by approaching mediocrity.

4. Oklahoma State 9-7

The Cowboys are down to six scholarship players which severely limits their margin for surviving misfortune. Boggan and Curry make them better than the clump of mediocre teams below them but not by much. If Obi Muonelo returns before the end of conference play it would greatly help Oklahoma State's chances.

5. Nebraska 9-7
6. Kansas State 9-7
7. Missouri 8-8
8. Texas Tech 7-9
9. Oklahoma 7-9

These teams will sort themselves out depending on how often they 1) win home games and 2) don't lose to Iowa State, Baylor, or Colorado. Nebraska, Kansas State, and Missouri have a built-in schedule advantage over Texas Tech and Oklahoma and appear more likely to finish in the top half of the conference based on that alone. Some good luck and good play in close games could get any of these teams to ten wins in conference.

Oklahoma is really bad offensively, though. I'm not sure good luck will be enough to get them over .500.

10. Iowa State 5-11
11. Baylor 4-12

There will be a couple of nights when a guard from one of these two teams gets hot and makes an opponent miserable but mostly these two talent-deprived, perimeter-heavy teams will be active and inefficient, their hot streaks lasting halves or parts of haves and merely rise to the level of irritation.

They are, however, clearly superior to...

12. Colorado 2-14

The "2" above is more representative of how little I think of the Big 12 in general this year than of any belief I have in Colorado's competence when it comes to playing the game of basketball. If they fail to win their home game agianst Iowa State on January 17th, they may well go in the tank for good as their next best chances to win are likely @Baylor and @Iowa State.

All-Big 12 Team

Kevin Durant, Player of the Year
Mario Boggan
Mario Chalmers
Aleks Maric
Jarrius Jackson

I'm not predicting that the above five will be the All-Big 12 team (either Acie Law or James Jones is sure to make that squad) rather that those will be the five best players in the league. The next five would include Jones and Law, AJ Abrams, JamesOn Curry, and Cartier Martin.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Pont Shootout, Pre-Trade, Post-Hernia Surgery Edition

Mr. Artest appears to be on his way out of Sacramento. Mr. Smith had hernia surgery yesterday and could be out for up to four weeks. Bi-weekly updates may be too frequent for the near future.

Casting about for other potential competitors to fill out the competition just underscores that these two players are unique and how disheartening are their efforts to normalize themselves. The other players who take and miss a significant number of three-pointers are generally playing hurt (Mike Bibby, Tracy McGrady) or generally ineffective (Antoine Walker, Stephen Jackson, Jamal Crawford in Larry Brown's absence). One might could make a case for a joint bid of Jason Kidd and Marcus Williams, but I cut Kidd some slack for occassionally having the ball in his hands as the shot clock winds down and shooting out of necessity rather than choice and I don't think Marcus Williams is very good.

Thus, the competition remains dual.

Through games of December 26th, 2006
Ron Artest: 19G, 19-72, 26.4%, 2.79 misses per game
Josh Smith: 25G, 19-70, 27.1%, 2.04 misses per game

Thursday, December 21, 2006

PJ Tucker: Free?

Sam Mitchell may be coming around. Slowly.

PJ Tucker got his first meaningful minutes of the year last night against the Clippers playing the final 10 minutes of the second quarter. Tucker was 1-2 from the field, made his only free throw, grabbed three rebounds (two offensive), added three assists, and made only one turnover.

Then he didn't play in the second half.

Starters (*cough*) Kris Humphries and Joey Graham, who combined for seven points and six rebounds, no assists and one turnover in 18 first half minutes, were on the court to open the second half and helped turn an eight point Raptor halftime lead into a tie game half-way through the third quarter. The pair were replaced by Fred Jones and Andrea Bargnani and Toronto had a nine point lead by the end of the quarter.

Sam Mitchell, until I turned on the game last night, I assumed you didn't read Hoopinion. Now I'm not so sure. So, if you do, let me propose this: play PJ Tucker 15 to 20 minutes a night. If that seems like too much, remember, he's just one guy. You can still have either Humphries or Graham on the court if you really want to give some playing time to a young guy questing to achieve mediocrity in the NBA. Your second unit outplayed your starters last night. Hell, your second unit outplayed the Clippers' starters last night. Maybe they shouldn't be your second unit.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Free PJ Tucker!

Last night in Phoenix, PJ Tucker got his first significant run since Toronto's first game of the year. It was garbage time to be sure, but who's to say they didn't get to garbage time in the first place because Sam Mitchell thinks that Joey Graham, Fred Jones, and Kris Humphries (DNP in Phoenix, but ahead of Tucker in the rotation generally) give the Raptors a better chance to be less bad than seven other bad Eastern Conference teams.

Graham has been somewhat improved this year, but he's still a one-dimensional player and there's nothing being accomplished beyond Mitchell setting the bar very low for his successor by using Graham and Jones behind Anthony Parker and Morris Peterson. The Kris Humphries preference is completely inexplicable.

This is a bad offensive team, next to last in the league in offensive rebounding and third from last in free throw rate. Tucker would immediately help in both those areas (though, to be fair, he would likely increase their turnover rate which currently sits third in the league).

November 1st, @ NJ: Tucker gets 8 minutes, scores 3 points (all on free throws) and gets 4 rebounds (1 offensive).
November 2nd-December 18th: Tucker plays in 8 of 23 games for a total of 23 minutes never playing more than 5 minutes in any one game. During this stretch he scores 4 points and grabs 2 rebounds (both offensive).
December 19th, @Phoenix: Tucker plays 19 minutes, scores 12 points and grabs 9 rebounds (4 offensive).

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Pont Shootout, Eleven Shopping Days Left Edition

I missed the Hawks/Kings game on Sunday night (being otherwise occupied) but Smith and Artest put on a clinic of self-abnegation, combining to go but 1-4 from three-point range.

To be fair, Antoine Walker (22.1%, 3.35 misses per game) puts both of our official competitors to shame, but Walker's poor shooting isn't suppressing his otherwise considerable value. He's just a bad basketball player at this point in his life.

Standings through December 12th
Ron Artest: 16G, 15-60, 25%, 2.81 misses per game
Josh Smith: 20G, 16-61, 26.2%, 2.25 misses per game

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Point Shootout, Episode #4

I watched my first Hawks game in about a week last night (oh, how I regret having to miss Toronto's visit to town) and I saw Josh Smith go 3-16 from the field and 0-4 from three-point land. Floating around the perimeter, waiting for a teammate to penetrate and kick the ball out to him, Smith looked like he was auditioning for Matt Freije's role (were Matt Freije able to make open shots in the NBA).

Josh Smith isn't blessed with a huge variety of talents. Those that he possesses (running, jumping, on a good day passing) are quite obvious. Those that are beyond him (shooting, dribbling) are equally obvious. Mike Woodson has some bizarre (potential) amalgam of Kirilenko and Rodman on his hands and he's wasting him (or allowing Smith to waste himself) in a role of relative normalcy that emphasizes almost entirely his weaknesses.

On the year, 58% of Smith's shot attempts have been on jump shots. He's shooting 27.3 eFG% on those attempts. If the Hawks are going to try to expand his offensive game, I'd start with teaching him some post moves. If he's missing shots from the block at least he'll have a fair chance to get the offensive rebound.

Standings through November 28th
Ron Artest: 12G, 11-50, 22%, 3.25 misses per game
Josh Smith: 12G, 11-44, 25%, 2.75 misses per game

Thursday, November 16, 2006

5 of the Night: November 15th, 2006

Games watched: Charlotte at San Antonio (overtime only, half-fetal following the Kansas/Oral Roberts debacle), Philadelphia at Seattle

Captain: Chris Paul
G: Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby
F: Paul Pierce
C: Emeka Okafor

Coach: Bernie Bickerstaff

Unofficial commendations: LeBron James, Keyon Dooling and Carlos Arroyo, Antoine Wright, Nenad Krstic and Jason Collins (see below), Manu Ginobili (when not shooting), Andre Iguodala, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kevin Martin, Rashard Lewis, Shav Randolph, Chauncey Billups, Ryan Gomes, David Lee

Sticking it to John Hollinger: Hilton Armstrong, LaMarcus Aldridge, Renaldo Balkman, Adam Morrison, Kyle Lowry, Rajon Rondo

Back spasms make him an effective shooter which makes as much rational sense as anything else having to do with him: Ron Artest

Seriously, he's the new George McCloud: Martell Webster and/or Jarvis Hayes

F-minus: Brian Skinner and Andrew Bogut (In 48 minutes against the Nets they combined for 9 rebounds, 7 fouls, 4 turnovers, and 0 points.), Nick Collison, Earl Watson

Cuts: Lindsay Hunter, Flip Murray, Carlos Delfino

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Point Shootout, Episode #3

The below includes Artest's 2-5 shooting performance against Toronto on Sunday night. Smith has countered with 15 three-point attempts in his last two games, but Artest still leads across the board.

Standings through November 14th
Ron Artest: 6G, 4-26, 15.4%, 3.67 misses per game
Josh Smith: 7G, 11-33, 33.3%, 3.1 misses per game

5 of the Night: November 14th, 2006

Games watched: Milwaukee at Atlanta, Denver at Miami, Chicago at Dallas (It's not a good sign for the Bulls to see Kirk Hinrich look so exhausted at the end of the 3rd Quarter of the 7th game of the season.), Clippers at Utah

Co-captains: Deron Williams, Matt Harpring, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur

F: Kevin Garnett

Coach: Jerry Sloan

Unofficial commendations: Tyronn Lue (Okay, he's probably better than Salim Stoudamire.), Michael Redd, Joe Johnson, Andre Miller, Dwyane Wade, Josh Childress, Carmelo Anthony, Peja Stojakovic, Tim Duncan, Luol Deng (on offense), Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh, Emeka Okafor (May and Morrison show up, Okafor has another great night, Chris Paul doesn't make a field goal, and David West doesn't play because of his injury. Charlotte still loses. They're not a deep team, but I thought their first seven or eight would be enough to keep them respectable.), Erick Dampier, Mehmet Okur, Andris Biedrins (4-6! on free throws)

Punitive sprints: Chris Kaman, Shaun Livingston

Cuts: Gary Payton, whichever Raptor(s) let Mikey Dunleavy score 22 points and grab 8 rebounds

Friday, November 10, 2006

5 of the Night: November 9th, 2006

Co-Captains: LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki
G: Jason Terry, Baron Davis
F: Drew Gooden

Coach: Mike Brown (I don't know if the official scorer in Cleveland provided some home cooking in crediting the Cavs with 38 assists on 45 field goals, but shooting 62% (eFG) from the floor and scoring 1.17 points per possession against Chicago is unquestionably a strong offensive performance.)

Unofficial commendations: Chris Paul, Leandro Barbosa, Kirk Hinrich, Monta Ellis, and Mickael Pietrus

New ball note for further research: One night after Paul Pierce committed 12 turnovers in the Celtics overtime win against Charlotte, Steve Nash turned the ball over 10 times against Dallas.