Basketball Prospectus: Doolittle: Fo-Fo-Fo

Bradford Doolittle on the unbearable sameness of Atlanta's four losses to the Orlando Magic:

Why then did Atlanta not attempt to run more? The Hawks had six fastbreak points in their season-ending loss. With the team unable to get to the rim against Orlando's Dwight Howard-led defense, transition might have been the Hawks' best chance to get good looks. The Hawks played at a slow tempo during the regular season and were successful doing that, but how many times do you have to watch your scorers beat their heads against the wall before you try something different?

...

n the second half, the Hawks' offense deteriorated into an ugly display of one-on-one basketball, as their touches per minute dipped below four for the half and below three in the fourth quarter. The Hawks had 25 shots off isolation in the game and scored .76 points on those shots. The Magic had 24 spot-up shots in the game, scoring 1.25 points per shot, almost all of them on kick-outs or pull-up threes in transition. Orlando was 15-of-20 in the paint. Since we know the Magic was 16-of-37 on threes, that means in the low-percentage zone between the paint and the line, Orlando took just eight shots--two per quarter--and made five. That's how you run an inside-out offense in the modern NBA.

Off-Season Speculation Can Only Get Better Than This

Jeff Schultz has a Six-Point Plan to improve the Atlanta Hawks. Among those points...

• Doc Rivers as a "dream world" replacement for Mike Woodson.
• Replacing Joe Johnson with the older and less good John Salmons whose 30-game hot streak with Milwaukee is both unsustainable and a weak facsimile of a typical 82-game Joe Johnson season.
• A single paragraph that calls for acquiring an unspecified "true center" or (its means also unspecified) trading for Chris Bosh and moving Josh Smith to the 3. It's the perfect storm of terrible and meaningless commentary.

A cap situation primer and a look back at pre-season predictions to follow this week. Season review posts to commence after that.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Orlando Magic 98 Atlanta Hawks 84

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

I have a short piece (#3) on Mike Woodson in The Daily Dime this morning.

Joe Johnson:

"I told [teammates] to keep their heads up regardless what they say about us. We had a hell of a year. It wasn’t a good series, but the whole season was good."

Josh Smith:

"We are disappointed at the series but we can’t let a bad series overturn all the good we did the whole entire season. Coming into the postseason we thought we could do something special but we couldn’t get it done."

Mike Woodson:

"I’m proud of our basketball team and what we’ve accomplished this season. We did a lot of good things this season. I’m happy in the direction the team is going. Sure we have to get better. But it’s a big jump from the first round to the second, third and Finals. We’re still learning."

I'm empathetic, but I also suspect little of value was learned by those who got swept.

But not nothing...

Al Horford on the Orlando Magic:

"Just watch and see their level of intensity they play with. That defines their team. They’re a championship-caliber team. Just take that in and play like that for next season. It takes a whole lot of effort. It’s almost to the point where you have to make yourself feel uncomfortable out there. We didn’t have that this year. With some of our guys when fatigue set in, everybody kind of shied away from it."

Woodson:

"Whatever happens, whether I am here or somewhere else, this team is in a better place than before I got here. That means a lot to me and my staff.

Sometimes I don’t think we get the credit because the media is so brutal on coaches. It’s awful. But I’m not going to let that send me in a tizzy or send me the other way because I can hold my head high for what I’ve done in six years.

I would love to stay. I started this six years ago and I would like to finish it."

It may be finished. Few teams get a happy ending.

Joe Johnson on the reason(s) for his poor series against Orlando:

"[It's] a number of things I’d rather not talk about. Like I said, no excuses."

It's unclear to me whether Johnson has no excuses or is running the excuses by his agency first so as not to repeat the mistake he made following Game 3.

Stan Van Gundy:

"One thing I’m real confident in with our team is our mental preparation. I know our energy and intensity will be there. When we get beat, it’s not been because we’ve not been ready to play. As a coach, that’s about the best thing you can say."

All together now, Hawks fans, "We just weren't ready to play."

Mark Bradley takes it a level above the Unnamed Scout by talking to Unnamed Former NBA Head Coach:

Even though Joe Johnson pulled another playoff disappearance, he remains one of the toughest players to defend in the league. He’s the focal point of every opposing scouting report.

Assuming it comes open, the Hawks’ coaching job will be seen as a plum. Even if Johnson leaves, this won’t be a team starting over. Horford, Smith and Crawford are major talents, and there’s no telling what Johnson could fetch in a sign-and-trade. The right coaching hire could elevate this team immediately.

I believe Joe Johnson is the focal point of scouting reports. He holds the ball most of the time. As to the former idea, LeBron James is tough to guard. Kevin Durant is tough to guard. Dwyane Wade is tough to guard. Carmelo Anthony is tough to guard. Kobe Bryant (when healthy) is tough to guard. Good teams, if they don't let Joe Johnson get his points*, allow him to get them how he wants to get them because he's not an efficient enough scorer to do any real damage.

*And even then, his scoring rate this season was more similar to Jamal Crawford, Chauncey Billups, Monta Ellis, or Al Harrington than any of the All-NBA no-brainers.

Ben Q Rock will remember Jamal Crawford as a beacon of light from this series:

Say what you will about how Orlando out-everything Atlanta in this series, but there's nothing bad you can say about Crawford after his 1-of-11 debacle in Game 1. A cynic might argue that what Crawford did in this series--score a lot of points for an awful team--is unremarkable because he's done it his whole career. I disagree with that idea, which is unfair to Crawford, one of the few Hawks to give an honest effort in these games. He deserves better.

John Hollinger on Orlando's dominance:

[T]he Magic have beat a lot of good teams. Actually, that's an understatement. They aren't just beating people -- they're killing them. Twenty of the 27 wins have been by double figures, and many were one-sided beatdowns -- such as the wins by 43 and 30 over Atlanta in Games 1 and 3. Monday's win, by a mere 14, barely moved the needle on their average victory margin.

See if you can wrap your heads around this one: Orlando has outscored opponents by a whopping 421 points over its past 30 games. To put this in perspective, the Lakers, Suns and Celtics -- who could be the other three teams left standing when the conference finals start next week -- didn't outscore the opposition by 421 points over the entirety of the 82-game regular season, much less in the final 30 games of it.

Orlando Magic 98 Atlanta Hawks 84

Boxscore

Game 4	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ORL	84	1.167	67.7	15.4	12	19
ATL	82	1.024	42.6	28.4	19	9.8

The Atlanta Hawks had no answers for the Orlando Magic. Most of the time, they looked unable to recognize which questions were being asked of them. A successful season bred an unsuccessful post-season, first against a less talented team that could better execute a game plan specific to the occasion then against a more talented team that could simply execute a better game plan.

Perhaps no stretch of the series better exemplifies the hopelessness of the Hawks' attack* than their first five offensive possessions in the second half tonight. Down eight following a perfectly respectable first half performance, the Hawks used four of their first five second half possessions on two-point jump shots from at least 20-feet. One each from Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, and Mike Bibby. On the other possession, Marvin Williams attacked the basket but Dwight Howard blocked the shot.

Atlanta had chances to make up ground during this stretch. Orlando turned the ball over on two of their first five possessions of the second half. Of course, their other three possessions resulted in a Dwight Howard hook shot in the lane, a Vince Carter three-pointer, and a Rashard Lewis and-one. Two turnovers in less than three minutes but the lead nearly doubled. Better players, better plan, better execution.

*I won't argue if you think the Hawks taking 1 of 17 first quarter field goals from inside the paint is a better example but they did get 6 three-pointers up in the opening 12 minutes.

Atlanta took 24 more long two-point jumpers tonight while watching the Magic attempted 37 three-pointers. This discrepancy more than made up for Atlanta's control of the defensive glass, their ability (for one night) to get to the free throw line, and forcing Orlando into twice as many turnovers as they committed themselves.

Whoever sits in the coach's office next season, whoever wears the Atlanta uniform, they must recognize what is a good, valuable shot and what is not. This Atlanta coach and, by extension, this Atlanta team gave no indication of understanding that Orlando won this series on the shot chart and that the number of respective Xs and Os therein merely determined the margin of victory.

Game Preview: Orlando Magic (3-0) @ Atlanta Hawks (0-3)

TIP-OFF: 8pm (EDT)

TELEVISION: TNT

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will be participating)

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: None.

BY THE NUMBERS

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	88.5	1.125	50.1	21.3	28.5	13.4
ORL (def)	90	1.043	47.4	27.5	22.8	14.2

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	88.5	1.087	49.7	28.2	27.4	15.3
ORL (off)	90	1.138	53.7	25.2	24.8	15.5

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	86	1.049	45.6	21.1	30.8	14.1
ORL (def)	85.2	0.955	43.9	32.6	24.6	16.3

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	85.8	1.12	50.1	30.3	28.6	13.8
ORL (off)	84.9	1.195	55.3	31.9	27.3	13.9

Head-to-Head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	87.4	0.938	41.8	19	20.4	13.9
ORL	87.1	1.19	55.5	26.1	27	13.3

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -6, 193 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post, Orlando Magic Daily

PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic took an (even more) commanding lead in the series, defeating the Atlanta Hawks 105-75 in Atlanta late Saturday afternoon.

Quotes, Notes, and Links for Game 3

Recap of Game 2

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 2

The Orlando Magic beat the Atlanta Hawks 114-71 in the first game of the series on Tuesday night.

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 1

The Orlando Magic won three of four regular season meetings against the Atlanta Hawks.

Orlando dominated the season series, in part, by attempting many more three-pointers and free throws and many fewer long two-point jump shots than Atlanta.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Long Two-Point Jumpers As Team Identity Redux

I wrote about 16-23 foot two-point jump shots--that the Magic force opponents to take them, nearly refuse to take the shot themselves, that the Hawks appear neither to recognize nor care about the intrinsic value of one type of shot attempt, and both teams' tendencies are magnified when they face each other--before the series began.

That has only continued. This is the updated comparison of shot type through seven games between the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic

Team	3PTA	3PT%	FTA	FT%	16-23A	16-23%
ATL	109	33.9%	140	75.7%	169	30.8%
ORL	178	35.4%	195	70.8%	81	45.7%

The Hawks have now taken twice as many long two-point jump shots as the Magic in their seven games against Orlando. Twice as many. Over 12 more a game, while Orlando attempts 10 more three-pointers and 8 more free throws. Which more than makes up for Orlando's relatively poor three-point and free throw shooting. Yes, the Magic have outscored the Hawks by 152 points over 7 games despite making three-point shots and free throws at less frequently than normal.

This is the data-based exemplification of what I was trying to say when I somewhat injudiciously called the Atlanta Hawks "an unserious basketball team" in early March. The Hawks are neither ruthless nor exact in their approach. In addition to being more talented, the Magic are both ruthless and exact in their execution. It has made much of the difference in this series.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Orlando Magic 105 Atlanta Hawks 75

Gameflow

Check out the gameflow to see just how consistently and thoroughly the Magic dominated the game. The Hawks have three runs: 5-0 to close within 31-43 in the second quarter, 6-0 to make it 41-59 early in the third quarter, and a 14-3 run midway through the fourth quarter to make it 73-93.

Highlights

"Recap"

Joe Johnson:

"This is tough. It’s an ugly loss, it’s embarrassing. But it happens."

It happens six out of seven times against Orlando, apparently. Ah, professionalism.

Josh Smith (1-6 on jump shots, 0 assists):

"Offensively, the ball was stuck on one side of the floor. They’re a great defensive team. When you do that against a great defensive team, you just play into their hands. And we didn’t help each other on defense like we needed to."

Al Horford:

"I’m not the kind of person to point people out. I will acknowledge it, but I’m not going to curse them out or anything. It’s frustrating when the effort is not there."

Mike Woodson:

"Tonight was just unacceptable. I’ve got to take responsibility. I’m the coach. I thought we were going to come out and compete, and we didn’t."

More from Joe Johnson:

"It was a bad game. You'll never hear me come up with any excuse."

Stan Van Gundy on Orlando's defense:

"We're working hard on [Johnson], but I don’t think it's anything in particular that we're doing."

Stan Van Gundy on his team's effort:

"What I really like is the intensity. The guys never got big-headed. They came to play. They played hard."

Mike Woodson:

"After we played three wonderful quarters there in Orlando, I figured we would come home and really play at a high level, make a series out of it. We were so flat coming out."

In addition to the difference between figuring and demanding, I doubt Stan Van Gundy would ever describe a three quarter stretch wherein his team gave up about 130 points per 100 possessions as "wonderful."

Michael Cunningham:

Watching the Magic run their offense and then watching the Hawks try to do the same is like seeing two teams who play in different leagues.

Johnson on the crowd's disapproval of the home team's performance:

"That doesn’t bother me and I hope it doesn’t bother anyone in this locker room. It’s about us in this locker room. We could care less if [fans] showed up."

The fans may put that sentiment to the test Monday night.

Johnson:

"It’s terrible to have a performance like that, especially individuals, [including] myself. These guys look to me for guidance, and when you are playing like that, it is almost impossible for us to win. I take a lot of heat for this, a lot of criticism."

Dribbling, contested jump shots, few free throw attempts...chin up, Joe, those guys are taking guidance from you.

Dwight Howard:

"We understand that for us to win we have to play together."

Van Gundy:

"We've won because of our defense. That's how we've won during the year and that's how we'll win in the playoffs."

Rashard Lewis:

"We have so much talent on our team that somebody has to sacrifice their role. It's Dwight, Vince … Jameer's role. Everybody else plays around them. I've been in the league 12 years, had my ups and downs, made an all-star team. What's left besides winning a championship?"

Peachtree Hoops on the Atlanta Hawks' stubborn conviction in what is not working:

It's a well used, okay, overused phrase: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

The Atlanta Hawks came home facing an 0-2 deficit to a team that went to the NBA Finals last year and had handled the Hawks in five of the six games the two teams had played this season.

Instead of fixing the problems that have haunted the team all season long and especially in this series, the Hawks came out and tried the same old thing with the same old effort. Did the result change? No.

Kevin Pelton:

In the first three games of this series, Orlando's Offensive Ratings have gone 126.9, 135.4 and 128.7. It's almost impossible to overcome giving up points at that rate. The Hawks were able to do so for part of Game Two, but in the other two games of this series their offense has been almost as ineffective as their offense.

The most obvious culprit is Joe Johnson, and any sympathy he might have engendered for an ill-timed slump was lost when he criticized Atlanta fans for booing the team in general and him in particular in Game Three. Johnson is almost certain to be paid like a superstar player this summer. I'm dubious he's ever played at that level, but we can all agree he hasn't during the postseason. Johnson had another disastrous game, shooting 3-of-15 from the field. Basically, the Magic has been content to let Johnson shoot from the perimeter, especially inefficient long twos. Johnson made just one of 10 attempts beyond 15 feet. Give credit to Stan Van Gundy for a good scheme and to Matt Barnes for executing it.

Chris Sheridan, May 2nd:

On to the next round, and on to the most pertinent question regarding the Atlanta Hawks: How relevant will their postseason flameouts from 2008 (blown out in Game 7 in Boston) and 2009 (swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers) be in 2010?

Josh Smith, why don't you tackle that one:

"Irrelevant. We've got Jamal [Crawford]. We're healthy, the depth is there, and we don't have to rely solely on the starters to get the job done."

That is the state of the Hawks in a nutshell, and Exhibit A to back up Smith's point was Sunday's box score from Atlanta's 95-74 dismantling of the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 7, showing a team-high 22 points from the player Smith referenced: Crawford, the newly minted Sixth Man of the Year.

But there's more to the Hawks that makes them a different team from the one we've grown accustomed to seeing on the wrong end of a pulverization in the past two postseasons.

Chris Sheridan, May 9th:

The stampede toward the exits was steady throughout the fourth quarter, but those who stayed let the Hawks hear it after what can only be described as an utter embarrassment of an effort in which the stakes were so high.

Amazingly, the boos and the groans started coming from the home crowd during the first minute of the game, and they never really ceased as the Magic gave a clinic on ball movement, playing with energy and focusing on attaining a goal.

Atlanta had just nine, count 'em, nine, assists over the entire 48 minutes, trailed by as many as 32 and gave every single season-ticket holder an excuse to hold a dollar sale on StubHub for Monday night's Game 4.

Bret LaGree, May 2nd:

Now, does the sound team basketball of most of the last two games portend good things for the Orlando series which begins Tuesday? I suspect not. Milwaukee shot the ball horribly. The 35-point combined margin of the final two games represents the confluence of good defense and bad shooting. Orlando were second in the league in eFG% this season. The Hawks cannot sag defensively and succeed for very long against the Magic. Al Horford, the best player in this series, will have to step up in class from Kurt Thomas to Dwight Howard. Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson will draw Josh Smith away the basket, increasing the distance he'll need to travel to provide help defense. Jameer Nelson figures to finish more consistently than Brandon Jennings, and Vince Carter, diminished by age though he is, is better than John Salmons.

The Hawks face a massive task. I think winning one game against Orlando is a realistic expectation. Especially if they give a performance of the quality the demonstrated in the first half of Game 1, the third quarter of Game 6, or the entirety of Game 7. Should they revert to the form they displayed in Game 3 against the Bucks against a team of Orlando's capabilities the degree of embarrassment could be exceptional.

It's no fun being (on the rare occasions I experience it) right.

Ben Q. Rock witnessed early portents of doom for the Atlanta Hawks:

[A]s early as their third possession, we got a great indication of how the game would play out. Lewis short-rimmed a three-pointer from the right wing, but the ball caromed directly to him about 18 feet from the rim. Johnson and Josh Smith converged to get the board, but backed off once Lewis snared it. Johnson then turned his attention to finding his man, while Smith took a step back and clapped his hands in frustration. Lewis took a few dribbles to the basket and laid it in. He's seen more aggressive defense in pregame layup lines, I can assure you. It struck me as odd that Smith would just concede the shot like that, even knowing Smith's reputation for taking plays off. It was emblematic of a problem that affected most of the Hawks players today, by my estimation: an utter lack of urgency or purpose. I Tweeted that Atlanta approached this game with all the intensity it'd bring for a January game against the Nets, and even that might have been charitable. Whereas the Magic patiently ran their offense on one end, the Hawks just forced the issue on the other. They didn't turn the ball over--they rarely do, ranking first in turnover rate this season--but just did not get good looks.

There are exceptions; not every Hawk dogged it. Crawford, for one, played his heart out, and I sort of felt sorry for him. He's making his 1st postseason appearance after 10 years in the league, and he frankly deserves better than this. Al Horford battled at both ends, and though he wasn't exceptionally effective, you can't knock his effort. The same can be said for his backup, Zaza Pachulia. But the other Hawks? Just average, I would say, with Smith and Johnson, whom many observers regard as their two best players, clocking out early.

Eddy Rivera, Magic Basketball:

The Magic, if anything, played like the team that was down 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. There was a sense of urgency from Orlando for 48 minutes and it wasn’t too hard to tell by how they played. The ball movement was crisp on offense, the execution was great on both ends of the court, and the Magic played like a team dead-set on going in for the killshot. All the credit needs to be directed at head coach Stan Van Gundy because he has his players prepared and keeps them grounded despite the success they’ve had so far. Very rarely will Orlando’s focus waver at the task at hand. This was evident in the first round against the Charlotte Bobcats when the Magic finished things off on the road and it’s evident now against the Hawks.

Orlando Magic 105 Atlanta Hawks 75

Boxscore

Game 3	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ORL	83	1.265	57.7	32.4	22.6	10.8
ATL	83	0.904	37.3	15.7	31.3	9.6

Head-to-Head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ORL	87.1	1.19	55.5	26.1	27	13.3
ATL	87.4	0.938	41.8	19	20.4	13.9

Click the "Magic" tag. It all applies today. I've nothing constructive to add.

Game Preview: Orlando Magic (2-0) @ Atlanta Hawks (0-2)

TIP-OFF: 5pm (EDT)

TELEVISION: ESPN, ESPN3

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will be participating)

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: None.

BY THE NUMBERS

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	88.6	1.128	50.2	21.4	28.6	13.5
ORL (def)	90.1	1.045	47.6	27.6	22.8	14.2

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	88.5	1.085	49.6	27.7	27.3	15.3
ORL (off)	90.2	1.137	53.7	25.1	24.7	15.6

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	86.3	1.065	46.5	21.7	31.9	14.5
ORL (def)	85.6	0.963	45	34.5	25	17.4

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	86.1	1.104	49.4	28.5	28.4	14.1
ORL (off)	85.2	1.183	54.9	31.9	26.7	14.4

Head-to-Head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	88.1	0.944	42.5	19.5	20	14.6
ORL	87.8	1.177	55.1	25.1	26.4	13.7

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -2.5, 194.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post, Orlando Magic Daily

PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic beat the Atlanta Hawks by 57 cumulative points, the joint fourth greatest margin of the 377 teams who have won the first two games of an NBA playoff series.

Recap of Game 2

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 2

The Orlando Magic beat the Atlanta Hawks 114-71 in the first game of the series on Tuesday night.

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 1

The Orlando Magic won three of four regular season meetings against the Atlanta Hawks.

Orlando dominated the season series, in part, by attempting many more three-pointers and free throws and many fewer long two-point jump shots than Atlanta.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Orlando Pinstriped Post: The Orlando Magic's Pick-and-Roll Simply Too Much for the Atlanta Hawks to Handle

The title of this Ben Q. Rock post is fairly self-explanatory and no surprise to anyone who has watched the first two games of the series which have been defined by the Orlando Magic running the same plays repeatedly and the Atlanta Hawks failing to stop them, but he has some nifty charts derived from data taken from Synergy Sports:

The Magic ranked 2nd in points scored per pick-and-roll possession and 1st in percentage of pick-and-rolls scored on. The Hawks ranked 6th-worst in points per possession allowed when defending the pick-and-roll, and 3rd-worst in percentage scored upon.

...

I don't follow the Hawks closely enough to know exactly why they can't handle the pick-and-roll, but I do know--as does everyone by now, I suspect--that they switch every screen. I imagine that tactic figures heavily into their poor showing here.

The two questions, "Why don't they defend the pick-and-roll well?" and "Why do they switch every screen?" have the same answer: the Hawks have no guards who can stay in front their man. Thus, Mike Woodson tries to minimize their involvement in defensive possessions and maximize the involvement of the two good defenders in his employ: Al Horford and Josh Smith. That strategy can work against teams which struggle to make jump shots, have less-than-ideal spacing, or use the big man who sets the ball-screen just for that purpose. Orlando makes jump shots, pays great and valuable attention to their spacing, and send Dwight Howard to the rim to receive an alley-oop over a guard if the Hawks switch the ball-screen.

This problem isn't going away, though the series soon might.

Mike Woodson: Hubie Can, You Can't

Michael Cunningham reports from Hawks practice...

Mike Woodson:

"We see that on tape and we point that out. don’t need Hubie or them guys like that [to do it]. I heard comments today that Hubie was blistering Josh Smith. Well, he can get away with it because he’s coached. But I don’t know if I can let you guys get away with it."

I presume the lowly fold watching the game are held to same exclusionary standard as members of the basketball press.

Woodson:

"That is my job as coach to point that out to Smoove and guys like that when they are doing that. And trust me, it don’t go unnoticed. He knows about it at the end of the day. Our tapes are thoroughly broken down and mistakes are pointed out."

I don't think there's anything to be gained by Mike Woodson ripping Josh Smith in the press. I also suspect there's little benefit to a lame duck coach getting on lackadaisical and/or ineffective play the next day on tape. Sure, it would be great if Mike Woodson held Josh Smith accountable for maximizing his talents and minimizing his weaknesses but if that was in the cards, Smith would have attempted 7 three-pointers and received the number of touches he did in the post this season back in 2006 or 2007. Mike Woodson's co-signed this behavior for a long time.

Smith admits nothing:

"I was definitely into it mentally. I always speak my peace with the referees. That doesn’t get me out of my game at all. That just makes me play harder to make them call calls.

I am too ahead of the game in my career now where I [would] let little minor things affect me. I think I played a good game yesterday."

I might have asked where winning basketball games enters into this particular display of petulant machismo, but I'm a smart ass. Cunningham's commentary (just the Josh Smith Game 2 facts: 5 turnovers, 6 jump shots) is probably a better exemplar.

Last word goes to the coach:

"You just teach from the tapes and you hope like hell that they learn from it and when they get in that situation again they get their [butts] back on defense. Because we were terrible in transition defense. We gave up at least 12, 14 points because we didn’t get back and get matched."

You hope because there will be no consequences if they don't. You hope because you know they haven't gotten any part of their anatomy back on defense all season. Not that most of them could do anything on the that end of the court anyway.

NBA Playbook: The Hawks Struggling Against The Pick-and-Roll

Sebastian Pruiti looks at three fourth-quarter possessions wherein the Hawks tried to defend the pick-and-roll three different ways and failed each time. All in about 90 seconds of game time. My take-away: It's hard to defend Dwight Howard plus four shooters when you lack a guard that can fight through a ball-screen. Orlando might ultimately miss the shot, but they've gained the upper hand in the possession the moment Howard puts body to Hawk.

FanHouse: Shoals: When Josh Childress Comes Marching Home

The original Washington Post article contains what seems to me a highly innocuous quote from Josh Childress at the Euroleague Final Four (watch live on ESPN3 at 2:55 EDT):

"I'll decide by July 15. But right now, I have a lot to accomplish still -- this tournament, and then the rest of the season in the Greek league."

He acknowledged that he has been following the Hawks in the NBA playoffs, though he quickly added, "because of the time difference, not all that much." And when a persistent questioner pressed Childress on the chances he might remain in Greece, he showed no trace of irritation.

"Listen -- it's been an excellent two years," he said. "It's been a growing experience, yes, but I never saw this as a temporary fix. I thought of it as a three-year deal, and it could very well end that way."

There will be lots of things that impact Childress's decision--things in Greece, things in Atlanta, things in the NBA. The first and third are financial concerns. The second is fully under control of the Atlanta Hawks organization.

Shoals:

No disrespect to Marvin Williams, who does some things well and is a very good supporting player, but plug Childress into that starting three spot and Atlanta becomes a far more cohesive, or at least less precarious, squad.

Had Mike Woodson been willing to do that, I don't think Josh Childress would be playing for Olympiacos today. But Woodson loves defined roles. He decided Marvin Williams was starter and Josh Childress would come off the bench. The hierarchy was defined and nothing that happened on or off the court could change that. In his last season in Atlanta, Josh Childress was far more productive than Marvin Williams yet Williams played 500 more minutes than Childress. Williams had a disastrous playoff series against the Celtics. It was painful to watch him try valiantly and fail repeatedly. But, had Williams not gotten ejected from Game 7 he would have played more minutes in that series than Childress despite the Hawks being outscored by 27.6 points per 100 possessions Williams was on the floor during the series.

If Mike Woodson's gone*, there's a better chance that Josh Childress returns to the Atlanta Hawks. That's a piece of the argument for hiring a new coach because the sentences that follow the above excerpt from Shoals are absolutely true:

At the same time, that holds true for pretty much any team. Josh Childress will only make you stronger.

*Somewhat perversely, if Mike Woodson's gone, I think there's a better chance that Marvin Williams becomes a more productive basketball player as well.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Orlando Magic 112 Atlanta Hawks 98

Hoopdata Boxscore

Recap

Mike Woodson:

"Almost need the perfect game to beat this team."

Josh Smith, defining success down:

"We have to look at the bright side. We played hard and we didn’t just let them roll over us."

Jamal Crawford lends support:

"We came in their place and were down one entering the fourth quarter. That shows you we are right there."

Al Horford on the first half:

"I think we had more movement going around instead of keeping the ball on one side and playing isolation. We were moving the ball and just sharing it. When we play like that, we are at our best."

The second half was the Hawks if not at, near, their worst: All-NBA Third-Teamer Joe Johnson was 1-7, Jamal Crawford was 4-11 (6-6 FTA), Josh Smith was 4-8 (4-4 FTA) but with 5 turnovers, Horford was 3-5 with 2 assists when not sitting next to his disqualification-phobic head coach.

Michael Cunningham mentions an obvious flaw (and one without a short-term solution) of this Hawk team:

VC, Jameer Nelson, Pietrus, and Rashard Lewis combined to make 27 of 51 shots. I still think the Magic just has too many good perimeter players and the Hawks have too many bad matchups out there. That’s something that needs to be addressed in the offseason.

Kevin Pelton on Atlanta's porous defense:

The problem for the Hawks ultimately came down to their inability to get stops. Aside from a 17-point second quarter, they allowed 95 points in the other three periods in what was a very slow-paced game (featuring eight and a half fewer possessions than Game One). The Magic got anything it wanted on offense, whether from the paint or on the perimeter. Orlando shot an incredible 64.4 percent (29-45) on two-point attempts and turned it over but nine times. The result was a 135.4 Offensive Rating the Phoenix Suns would envy.

HawkStr8Talk on Josh Smith's effort:

Kudos to Hubie Brown for doing what Mike Woodson should have done 2-3 years ago and publicly called out Josh Smith for dogging it during this game. Josh Smith should have been benched for his play in the first 4 minutes of the 3rd quarter. And by benched, I mean - for the rest of the game. I'm sorry, but I will not lose with players who aren't committed to the team and to the game. And this from someone who has always thought of Josh Smith as my favorite Hawks player.

Peachtree Hoops on Josh Smith's mindset:

Josh is always right, and when he is wrong, it clearly does not matter.

Feel free to nominate your favorite Game 2 Josh Smith memory* in the comments. For me, it's a narrow decision between stepping out of bounds while trying to launch a three-pointer in the fourth quarter and falling to the ground grasping his face (after being touched there several beats and part of a play earlier) rather than getting back on defense.

*You needn't specify which time the ESPN cameras caught him strolling back on defense.

At SI.com, Frank Hughes views bad body language as a team-wide problem:

Even though they were within striking distance for most of the game, the Hawks appeared to be defeated as soon as the Magic made a 9-0 run at the start of the second half.

Ben Q. Rock gives Vince Carter his due:

Though Howard scored more points and drew more attention, Carter is the player who really put Orlando over the top tonight. After a first half in which he deferred, Carter asserted himself in the second, scoring 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting and making arguably the game's defining play. Early in the fourth quarter, Williams scooped up his third offensive rebound of the night and went back up to score, but Carter spiked his offering from behind. He made the outlet pass, and just seconds later, stepped into a trailing, delayed transition three-pointer from the right wing that gave the Magic a 6-point lead and knocked the roof off Amway Arena. And he shredded the Hawks in the halfcourt running the high pick-and-roll with Howard: as ESPN analyst Hubie Brown so beatifully illustrated, the Hawks kept sending Carter's defender over the screen in order to take away the three-point shot, so Carter just continued driving to the bucket, which forced Horford to decide whether to step over to cover him or to stick with the rolling Howard. It's how Carter got free for two huge dunks and several more lay-ins. He was squarely in attack mode tonight, or at least for the final 24 minutes.

Eddy Rivera continues this train of thought at Magic Basketball:

[T]he Magic were able to turn a close game into a blowout before cruising to an easy victory by running the 2/5 pick and roll with Carter and Howard on almost every possession. Because Howard was having his way on the low block throughout the evening no matter who was defending him, Atlanta was forced to compensate and keep an extra eye on him as he was rolling to the basket. And because the Hawks almost always fought over the screen since they were concentrating on taking away the three-point shot the entire game, that opened things up for Carter offensively and he was able to make the Hawks pay by being an efficient playmaker.

That play was the difference in the fourth quarter and that play was the difference in Game 2.

Finding a play that works and running it until the other team stops it? (Or, in this case, until the game ends.) The Atlanta Hawks say, "That's unpossible."

Zach Harper (#2) breaks down Orlando's 21-3 fourth quarter run:

During a seven-minute stretch of the fourth quarter, the Hawks scored just three points while allowing 21 points to Orlando. The reason for this lack of Hawks offense had a lot to do with the types of shots they were settling for. Atlanta took seven jumpers (six off the dribble) during this scoring drought but only managed to make one of them. It also had two forced post moves by Josh Smith that weren't exactly good shots and a layup attempt off an offensive rebound from Marvin Williams that Vince Carter emphatically swatted away.

The Hawks fell right into the trap of the Magic defense and went away from what worked for them during the first three quarters. When Atlanta was scoring well it was because it moved the ball and found the open shooters. The Hawks utilized spot-up shooters who knocked down timely 3-pointers in the first three quarters. When they allowed Orlando to make their big run in the fourth quarter, they had too much one-on-one play that resulted in forced jumpers. And this is what Orlando does so well.

Al Horford:

"I think we realized we had to play harder than we did. I think that we we got away from our game plan in the first game and we learned from that. We tried to put a whole game together tonight and just couldn't do it."

Orlando Magic 112 Atlanta Hawks 98

Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Game 2	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	85	1.153	45.3	40	37.2	14.1
ORL	84	1.333	62.5	39.7	24.2	10.7

Had the season series looked more like this game then all the talk prior to the series about how to defend Dwight Howard would have been perfectly understandable. It's not the greatest obstacle for the Hawks but it's undeniably a problem. Howard made 8 of 9 field goal attempts and 13 of 18 free throws. He drew five fouls on Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins in less than three-and-a-half minutes, creating the rare opportunity for Randolph Morris to play in the first quarter of a game that counts.

Surprisingly, that didn't derail the Hawks early. Mike Woodson's second try at getting Al Horford early rest with one foul to his name sort of worked, or, at least, didn't fail miserably. After Howard scored 18 first quarter points against four strings of Hawk centers, Orlando had just a five point lead. Horford returned to draw Howard's second foul on the first possession of the second quarter, sending Howard to the bench for a breather, which allowed Horford a strong start which culminated in 14 second quarter points and an eight-point Atlanta lead at the half.

The Hawks were even +10 during the 4:31 Morris played alongside Horford in the second quarter. Morris' line: 0-1, 1 OR, 3 PF. Despite that, it's still a flawed strategy. Zaza Pachulia played less than Morris and Collins combined, yet finished the game with just four personal fouls. Horford played 38:02 and finished with five fouls. He sat twice (for 5:05 total) in the second half as Woodson prevented him from fouling out. That effort succeeded. On the other hand, they were down 15 with 4:44 left when Horford returned to the court for good. The Hawks were outscored by 22 in the second half. 9 points of that margin came with Horford on the bench. The Hawks aren't as good as the Magic and they aren't going to overcome that fact by creating reasons to play the least able members of the roster.

For three quarters though, the Hawks were roughly as good as the Magic. It proved unsustainable, in part because a defensive focus on Howard made it difficult for Al Horford to help against Orlando's dribble penetration when he played Howard straight up or when the Magic used Howard in screen-and-roll situations. When Atlanta doubled Howard in the post, Orlando's spacing and ball movement made it difficult for the Hawks to rotate in time to close out* on shooters. The Hawks may have shown a bit of their ersatz-zone in the fourth quarter. Then again, Rashard Lewis' wide-open three with 5:08 left might have been the result of simple mis-communication. Josh Smith left Lewis, just right of the top of the key, to follow a cutter into the weak-side corner. Joe Johnson, at the left elbow, didn't know this and stayed at the strong-side help line. Unable to feed Howard easily on the left block, Vince Carter made a simple, direct pass to Lewis who had time to measure the shot before releasing as Johnson was clearly surprised not have a teammate behind him.

*That it seemed to fall to Josh Smith to close out, more often than not, only compounded the problem.

It was also unrealistic to expect the Hawks to continue to make over 80% of their three-point attempts and 100% of their free throws while getting to the line at an impressive (46.3 FT Rate) clip. Down 1 after three quarters, the Hawks were 6-7 from beyond the arc, 25-25 from the line, and had rebounded 40% of their misses. They were, I repeat, down 1. Defending Orlando became an issue co-equal to scoring against Orlando's defense.

For the still hopeful among us, the second quarter provided an indication of how the Hawks can suppress Orlando's offense. Howard sat for more than half the quarter, both for regular rest and due to foul trouble. Without the spoke round which their offense revolves, the Magic became more reliant on the jump shot, were more willing to take a quick and/or guarded jump shot, went cold, and the Hawks grabbed the vast majority of the misses (80 DR% in the second quarter). It's not coincidental that, at halftime, the Hawks were up 8 and had forced the Magic into almost as many long two-point jumpers as they'd taken themselves. The Hawks were 2 of 10 from 16 to 23 feet in the first half. The Magic were 2 of 8.

Nor is it coincidental that, at the conclusion of the 14-point loss, the Magic had attempted more than twice as many three-pointers as the Hawks (more than negating Atlanta's accurate shooting from beyond the arc) while the Hawks took 21 long two-point jumpers (making 6*) to just 13 long two-point jumpers from the Magic (making 5). Even as the Hawks did an unusually excellent job of getting to the line, they failed to do their typically excellent work at keeping their opponent off the line. 31 free throw attempts were a great accomplishment and making 30 free throws (6-6 from Josh Smith!) consolidated their value. But those 30 makes were necessary since Orlando got to the line 39 times which almost makes up for their sub-70% free throw shooting as a team.

*Two of those makes courtesy of Josh Smith, a success that will not, I suspect, keep Stan Van Gundy up at night.

So, the Hawks shot the three well (if not nearly often enough). They got to the line at almost twice their typical rate and made 96.8% of their foul shots. They dominated the offensive glass against a great defensive rebounding team. They got Dwight Howard in foul trouble in the first half. They forced Orlando into more difficult shots for approximately a full quarter. They lost by 14. They rallied to lose by 14. More than half of the 15 points they scored in the fourth quarter came in the final 3:29 after Orlando built their game-high 19-point lead.

From a certain perspective, this makes the second loss of the series more discouraging than the first. The Hawks saw themselves play better and Orlando play worse and the Hawks still didn't have a chance to win. There's no team with a greater disparity between their success at home and their success on the road than the Atlanta Hawks. The disparity in quality between the Hawks and the Orlando Magic may be greater.

Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (0-1) @ Orlando Magic (1-0)

TIP-OFF: 8pm (EDT)

TELEVISION: ESPN, ESPN3

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (I will not be chatting during the game tonight)

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic

ATLANTA INJURY/ACTIVATION REPORT: Randolph Morris will "probably" be activated, presumably at the expense of Mario West.

ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: None.

BY THE NUMBERS

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	88.6	1.128	50.3	21.2	28.5	13.5
ORL (def)	90.2	1.043	47.6	27.5	22.6	14.3

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	88.6	1.082	49.5	27.7	27.4	15.4
ORL (off)	90.2	1.134	53.6	24.9	24.7	15.6

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	86.4	1.054	46.7	19.6	31.3	14.6
ORL (def)	85.7	0.925	45	33.1	22.3	18

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	86.3	1.075	48	25.4	28.8	14.5
ORL (off)	85.5	1.154	53.5	30.4	27.1	15.1

Head-to-Head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	88.7	0.903	42	15.7	16.7	14.6
ORL	88.5	1.146	53.8	22.6	26.8	14.2

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -9.5, 189.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post, Orlando Magic Daily

PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic beat the Atlanta Hawks 114-71 in the first game of the series on Tuesday night.

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 1

The Orlando Magic won three of four regular season meetings against the Atlanta Hawks.

Orlando dominated the season series, in part, by attempting many more three-pointers and free throws and many fewer long two-point jump shots than Atlanta.

An updated (through Game 1 of the playoff series) look at shot selection.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Hawks' Style Not Suited For Playoffs

John Hollinger examines the difficulties the Hawks (and Trailblazers) have had in recreating their low-possession, high-efficiency offense in post-seasons past and present (Insider):

[T]heirs is a volume strategy. The Hawks and Blazers might not take better shots than other teams, but they take a lot more of them. Over time, that gives them enough of an advantage to make them potent offensive squads overall.

...

Atlanta, as the league's third-best offense, should at least be able to battle these defenses to a draw. But even before Tuesday's Game 1 implosion against Orlando, they were struggling. The Hawks can't make shots, ranking just 14th out of 16 teams in postseason TS percentage. While they've still been able to generate second shots (they lead all teams in playoff Offensive Rebound Rate) and have been somewhat successful at avoiding turnovers, the net result put the Hawks 11th among the 16 playoff teams in postseason Offensive Efficiency.

...

Is there something about iso-heavy offenses that makes them vulnerable in the playoffs? We can't say it with certainty yet, but the case is building rapidly. The Hawks have three games left to show that Iso-Joe can be as effective in May as it is between November and April.

Learning How To Win

It's not pleasant to hear, it's probably not pleasant to admit, but Mike Woodson speaks the truth:

"We get down and it’s like we kind of bury our heads and the team goes the other way. At home we don’t do that. We get down at home and we find a way to get back in the game and then we win the game. I still want to say our team’s still learning how to win. It’s not easy winning on the road, but surely it can’t be that lopsided."

Here's a handy chart (courtesy of ESPN Stats and Research) regarding the 11 losses the current incarnation of the Hawks have suffered in 13 road playoff games:

Losing Margin	Number of Losses
15+ Points	10
20+ Points	8
25+ Points	6
30+ Points	2
35+ Points	1

A Dead Horse

Now, through five meetings this season, the Orlando Magic have attempted 43 more three-pointers*, 32 more free throws, and 63** fewer two-point jump shots from between 16 and 23 feet than the Hawks.

Double Dwight Howard, don't double Dwight Howard; play Jason Collins, don't play Jason Collins, it won't matter a whit if the Hawks continue to take high-risk/low-reward shots while Orlando does the opposite.

*They're not even making them at a high rate (just 34.9%) as they beat the Hawks by 20 points per game, 24 points per 100 possessions.

**(UPDATE: 8:15pm) Hoopdata finally posted their boxscore and I trust it more than me looking at the shot chart at ESPN. They have the Magic at 5-11 from 16 to 23 feet. I had them at 4-10. This post has been corrected.