Monday, December 14, 2009

Hawks 130 Nets 107

Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
NJ 96.5
1.108
53.4 21.8
22.2 14.5
ATL 96.5 1.347 59.2
22.8
36.4
13.5

Lacking much new to say about yet another blowout victory, I jumped at the chance to sum up the Hawks' league-best offense for The Daily Dime (#8). Again, the overall defensive performance failed to convince* but the offense was so good that it never threatened to create a real problem.

*The Nets entered the game last in the league in offensive efficiency (0.966) and eFG% (43.2). They set season-highs in both categories. They'd only shot better than 50% (eFG%) once in their first 23 games. Sure, Devin Harris has missed a bunch of time and their season averages probably underrate New Jersey's offensive ability, but the Nets replaced Chris Douglas-Roberts with Trenton Hassell and Bobby Simmons yesterday and still set season-highs. Plus, if Devin Harris were as effective against the other 28 teams as he is against the Hawks, New Jersey would probably have more than two wins this season.

Nary a healthy Hawk failed to contribute to the offensive explosion. There probably couldn't have been a better night for Marvin Williams to be felled by illness, due both to Mo Evans' current form and the injury-weakened opponent. Evans led the scoring with 22 points but Joe Johnson set the tone with a flawless 21-point/12-shot/10 assist/0 turnover highlighted, for me at least, by his five free throw attempts.

Josh Smith on Evans:
"I think Mo Evans did a good job picking up the slack for Marvin going out, and it shows the maturity of this team when somebody goes down, another player comes in the spot and steps up."
Mike Woodson:
"We're playing pretty good right now. We're doing everything right defensively, and offensively we look like we're having fun, sharing the basketball, and doing all the necessary things to score the right way."
Truly untroubled by the defense or exhibiting healthy perspective?

Woodson on Evans:
"He's a veteran and has been patiently waiting. That is key to having a good team. I can't play everybody 30 minutes, so the minutes you get, you have to make the most of them."
Brook Lopez:
"We were hanging tough with a top-four team in the East, pretty much for -- what fraction should I say? -- five-eighths of the game? That's correct, right? So, we were in there. It just kind of fell out from under us offensively and defensively the beginning of the third quarter. I'm sure it's tough writing about us."
Devin Harris:
"When you give them wide open looks like we did, they shoot an extremely (high) percentage. And then the misses they did have they got back."
Joe Johnson:
"It’s a blessing, honestly. The first year I got here, we started off, like, 2-21, something like that. [It was 2-16.] I’m not going to lie, there were a lot of nights I didn’t get any sleep. To go from that to now, it’s been lovely."
Jeff Teague on getting more minutes recently:
"I just wanted to make sure I didn't turn it over and do anything wrong. Now I think I'm more comfortable. I try to play my game and I think that's what they want me to do."

Sunday, December 13, 2009

December 13th Game Thread: New Jersey (2-21) @ Atlanta (16-6)

TIP-OFF: 5pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Nets

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Joe Smith is out.

NEW JERSEY INJURY REPORT
: Eduardo Najera, Jarvis Hayes, and Yi Jianlian are out. Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, and Bobby Simmons are questionable. Chris Douglas-Roberts and Devin Harris are probable.

RATIO OF PLAYERS MENTIONED IN NETS' INJURY REPORT TO PLAYERS NOT MENTIONED IN NETS' INJURY REPORT: 8:7

BY THE NUMBERS

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
NJ (off)
91.7
0.966
43.2 23.1
25.2 17.4
ATL (def)
90.5 1.066 49.6
26.5
26.8
15.9

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
NJ (def)
91.7
1.077
50.5 33.0
28.2 17.7
ATL (off)
90.5 1.149 50.9
21.6
29.6
13.1

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -12.5, 195 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: Nets Are Scorching

PREVIOUSLY, THE NEW JERSEY NETS...are not exactly responding positively to their recent (relatively) hot stretch wherein they've won two of five games. Terrence Williams got suspended for two games and, upon his return, professed a desire for the media not to speak to him anymore. Rafer Alston finds certain of his teammates actions "hurtful." Devin Harris has declared the team "divided."

Even for a team that lost its first 19 games, getting blown out by Golden State and Indiana in quick succession is traumatic. It's imperative the Hawks win this game over a poor, dysfunctional team even though I suspect the size of the home crowd in Atlanta will make the Nets feel like they're playing at home.

The Hawks seem the farthest thing from a team divided but I suspect, should there by an absence of energy from the starters, both Mo Evans and Jeff Teague will implore them to get working and turn their two-game roll into a three-game streak. Evans has increased his scoring rate by 13.8% and his eFG% by 74 percentage points over the last two games. Teague's scoring rate is up 7.9%, his assist rate is up by 21.3%, and he's added 46 percentage points to his eFG% while increasing his percentage of minutes played from 16.6% to 19.1% during the blowout wins over Chicago and Toronto.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Future Cap Space, Free Agency, Etc.

Following up on some of the comments in yesterday's game recap post, NBA Roundtable looks at the Hawks' potential cap space. It's a good post* thought it does leave out Josh Childress's potential cap hold. Last summer** his cap hold was $14.533 million.

*Especially the reminder that, if Jamal Crawford plays out his contract in Atlanta, it will expire at the same time that Al Horford's (assumed) extension kicks in.

**assuming accurate research from me at the time

I'm not a fain of re-signing Joe Johnson both due to his established talent level versus the cost of re-signing him and my long-standing concerns that he will peak/has peaked early and will begin to decline at a relatively young age due to the volume of minutes he's played both here and in Phoenix. However, it's hard to envision how the Hawks build a team as strong as this year's squad if Johnson leaves in free agency unless they manage to lose Johnson via a sign-and-trade, trade the rights to Childress and/or Jamal Crawford's (by then) expiring contract, get great value* from their late first-round draft pick, and use the MLE wisely.

*either by using it or trading it

That's a lot of moving parts, many of them dependent on the Hawks' needs meshing with the wants and needs of other teams and those of other players. To this point, the team has (eventually) benefited from a combination of patience and aversion to risk. I suspect they will try to keep things as much the same next season as they can.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Hawks 111 Raptors 89

Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 87.6
1.267
57.2 19.3
36.1 14.8
TOR 87.6 1.016 50.0
31.1
29.4
19.4

It was more competitive than the first game between these two teams even if last night's game failed to rise to the heights of actual competitiveness for (at least) its final 18 minutes. That it was closer and that Toronto appeared to try* probably made this win more impressive for the Hawks than last week's larger blowout victory.

*The Raptors led 18-10 with four minutes left in the first quarter. The Hawks responded by scoring 47 points in the next twelve minutes to take a 14-point lead with four minutes left in the second quarter. Toronto would never get closer than 11 points from that point forward.

I've a theory (unproven, natch) from my dabbling in writing about college basketball that margin of victory is important, but so is the shape of that margin. I suspect that a team that is +20 points per 100 possessions by scoring 125 points per 100 possessions and allowing 105 points per 100 possessions is more susceptible to an upset than a team that is +15 by scoring 110 points per 100 possessions and allowing 95 points per 100 possessions. The latter team is above average both offensively and defensively. The former relies just on an outstanding offense to outscore its opposition.

That's why I feel the 126.7-101.6 efficiency margin last night in Toronto, though smaller than the 154.3-121.5 margin of the game in Atlanta last week, denotes a more encouraging/replicable result even if it's not better in absolute terms.

Thus ends the aesthetics of statistics portion of this post.

As one might expect in a drubbing, there's plenty of encomia to go around. Joe Johnson rebounded from his dreadful performance in the blowout of the Bulls by leading the way with a 20 point/15 shot/5 assist night in just 27 minutes. The rest of the starters took care of business (both offensively and defensively) sufficiently quickly so as not to have the time to amass especially impressive individual stats. Even Josh Smith's poor shooting night, augmented as it was with 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks, was positive in that it was a result of failing to make good shots rather than choosing to take bad shots.

One must be careful not to give the starters too much credit for their early exit. The bench did their part to let their betters rest so much. For Mo Evans (15 points on 9 shots, 3-5 on 3PTA) and Jeff Teague (11 points on 6 shots, 7 assists, 1 turnover, 3 steals, another block) it was as if garbage time on Wednesday night never ended. Jamal Crawford's level of play has been so consistently high that what stands out in a 15 point/12 shot performance is the uncharacteristically high number of turnovers he committed: 4. Last but not least, Zaza Pachulia* ably covered for the absent Joe Smith by making 6 of 7 field goal attempts, both of his free throws, and grabbing 6 rebounds (4 offensive). In sum, players six through nine in the Hawks' rotation made 67.6% of 34 field goal attempts, 4 of 9 three-point attempts, all five of their free throws, grabbed 17 rebounds, and earned 11 assists in just under 102 combined minutes.

Joe Johnson:
"When our bench comes out and plays like that, we're a tough team to beat. It makes us a lot more deadly, you can't really sit up and guard just one or two guys when you've got everybody rolling the way we were tonight."
Mike Woodson:
"Our second unit was huge tonight. This is three straight games they've played unbelievable."
Mo Evans:
"We knew that they would come out trying to reconcile what happened in Atlanta. We knew they really wanted to avenge that loss, they were going to play hard and they're a tough home team. We came out with that focus and I think it paid off for us."
Chris Bosh:
"You're going to get beat sometimes by teams that are better than you, and they're better than us. I can't sit here and be like, 'Well, they're not better than us, I think we're better.' No, they're better than us. They beat us. They smoked us once and then they beat us again today."
DeMar DeRozan:
"Our effort was there at the beginning but it slowly [began] to lack as the game went on."
Doug Smith, TheStar.com:
When it goes bad, it goes bad in a hurry for the Raptors, who get down and tend to cower, unable or unwilling to fight through even the tiniest bit of adversity most nights.

Whether it's a flaw of the collective character of the players, an ill-conceived playing rotation or, most likely, a combination of both, it needs to be fixed and fixed fast before the NBA season gets entirely away from them.
Peachtree Hoops:
If I knew how to use youtube, I would create a Hawks highlight mix for this game, throw down some hip hop beats in the background, and inter-splice Dominique Wilkins quotes. Josh Smith dunk. "Man the Raptors just don't play defense." Al Horford lay in. "if you move the ball, this team will not stop you." Mo Evans drive. "This team does not try." I think this could have real potential. Toronto fans might like it at least.
From AltRaps at Raptors Republic:
Quite obviously Atlanta knows how to play Chris Bosh. Yes, he got his double double, but they made him work for it and you could almost see the energy leave his body. Good effort on a night that didn’t feature many for the home team.
*Zaza's winning people over everywhere.

Friday, December 11, 2009

December 11th Game Thread: Atlanta (15-6) @ Toronto (10-14)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Raptors

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Joe Smith is out.

TORONTO INJURY REPORT
: Reggie Evans is out. Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani are both listed as day-to-day.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (off)
90.6
1.143
50.6 21.7
29.3 13.0
TOR (def)
91.9 1.177 51.9
35.0
28.1
13.1

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (def)
90.6
1.069
49.6 26.3
26.7 15.8
TOR (off)
91.9 1.137 50.7
27.7
27.1
14.6

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -4, 209 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: Raptors Republic

PREVIOUSLY, THE TORONTO RAPTORS...were without both Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon in their 95-117 loss at Milwaukee Wednesday night. Following their utter defensive capitulation in their 146-115 loss in Atlanta on December 2nd, the Raptors responded with three successive good defensive performances to win @Washington, @Chicago, and at home against Minnesota.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Josh Smith: Breaking Out

A follow-up to this shockingly (and, one hopes, not temporarily) prescient post...

Josh Smith's scoring rate is up this year without a concomitant rise in his usage rate.

That's because he's far more efficient (despite currently putting up another sub-59% season at the free throw line) and he's far more efficient because his shot selection has improved.

One reason his usage rate hasn't changed much despite his increased production is that Smith has cut down on turnovers this year. He's also earning more assists, a development I credit to Smith more often putting himself in a position where he must be guarded by one more opponents, thus creating more open passing lanes for him to exploit.

As to the supposition that Josh Smith's career-low offensive rebounding and shot blocking numbers were due to his ankle injury, I can't prove the causal relationship but he's healthy this year and both rates are back to or better than pre-2008-09 levels.

Let's see...
  • Scoring? Up.
  • Shooting percentage? Up.
  • Assists? Up.
  • Turnovers? Down.
  • Offensive rebounding? Up.
  • Defensive rebounding? Up. (21.7% vs. career 19.2%)
  • Shot blocking? Up.
  • Steals? Up. (1.7 per 36 v. career 1.3 per 36)
  • Defense? Excellent. (Hawks allow 13 fewer points per 100 possessions with Smith on the floor this year.)
Add it up and you've got someone 25% of the way to a breakout season.

Credit due Basketball-Reference.com and Hoopdata for easing the burden of calculations.

Honesty, As Always, The Best Policy

Mike Woodson on Joe Smith's absence:
"We can always play Al at the 4, Marvin at the 4. If I don't feel comfortable with 'O,' I can go that route."
I count the "if" as being both honest and polite.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Joe Smith Out Friday, Questionable For Sunday

Per Ken Sugiura:
Joe Smith won’t be making the trip to Toronto. He’ll stay home for treatment, and Othello Hunter will be activated in his place. It’s possible Smith could play Sunday against New Jersey, but it would seem like that’d be an outside shot, perhaps somewhat dependent on what Hunter does against Toronto. Mike Woodson said Marvin Williams could be an option at 4 behind Al Horford if he doesn’t get what he wants from Hunter.
I suspect that, especially considering the opponent, Marvin Williams is far more likely to play minutes at the four than is Othello Hunter. Though, again considering the opponent, I should probably qualify that suspicion with some sort of garbage time proviso. Plus, Mo Evans raised his eFG% by 47 points in 23 minutes last night. He's got to want another shot at the Toronto efense.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Hawks 118 Bulls 83

Gameflow

Highlights

Al Horford:
"I think we really came out aggressive early, kept defending and rebounding...We were making the game easy for each other."
Joe Johnson:
"We know we can't let up in games like this. We've got to approach it like it's a big game every game."
Josh Smith:
"At halftime we told ourselves 'no letdown.' We didn't want them to come back and get some momentum."
Jeff Teague:
"It was a great win. Everybody got an opportunity to play. That's always good."
Derrick Rose:
"I don't really know what to do. It's all mental. Either you want it or don't. It's not about what plays we run or nothing. It's about hustle. If want it, defend people and rebound. It's all mental now."
Vinny Del Negro:
"I look at the glass as half full, not half empty."
Matt McHale at By The Horns:
You know the story: the Bulls couldn’t buy a shot (36.4 percent), couldn’t hold onto the ball (19 turnovers), couldn’t defend (50 percent shooting for the Hawks), couldn’t protect the paint (where they were outscored 46-34), couldn’t finish in transition (only 6 fast break points compared to 22 for Atlanta), couldn’t even begin to cool down a hot hand (former Bull Jamal Crawford scored a season-high 29 points on 10-for-16 shooting)…let’s face it, the night was nothing but a series of “couldn’t’s” for the Bulls.
John Hollinger:
Del Negro has had more than a year to implement his system, and it's one his players clearly don't believe in. Whether he is removed Thursday morning or at some other point, the clock is ticking on his tenure in Chicago. Wednesday's humiliating loss in Atlanta might just be the crack that sends him through the ice.
Kelly Dwyer:
The Hawks pulled ahead in the first half by making quick penetration early in possessions and moving the ball after that. They were able to take it to the Bulls on the offensive glass, which Vinny Del Negro blamed on Atlanta's "athleticism," conveniently overlooking the fact that it was Zaza Pachulia(notes) and Joe Smith(notes) that were doing most of the damage in the first quarter run that VDN was talking about.

On national TV.

On national TV, Mark Jackson then called VDN out on this very point. And, really, if Mark Jackson gets it, and your head coach doesn't? What hope do you have?
You know when a head coach is overmatched and/or his team's quit on him? When Mike Woodson feels comfortable enough to get creative. In apparent homage to Don Nelson, and distinct from anything I can every remember him trying before, Woodson played a lineup of Teague/Bibby/Crawford/Johnson/Evans for the final 48 seconds of the first half. The Hawks scored 2 points in 3 possessions and allowed 2 points in 2 possessions with that lineup on the floor. I have no idea how I'm going to account for that unit in the next post about the team's backcourt defense.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Hawks 118 Bulls 83

Boxscore

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
CHI 93.7
0.886
39.0 35.1
33.3 20.3
ATL 93.7 1.259 55.1
23.9
25.6
8.5

Here's the latest example of why I should remember not to make predictions:
I suspect the Bulls have hit rock bottom.
Oops.

The Bulls weren't as dreadful defensively as Toronto were last week but the Raptors at least scored frequently in that game. Chicago (Derrick Rose's 15 point, 6 assist first half excepted) laid an egg at both ends of the floor. The only reasonable explanation for their lifeless incompetence is a not especially admirable* desire to see their head coach relieved of his responsibilities.

*It's not especially reprehensible either. Vinny Del Negro's bad at a job he never should have been given.

Thus, for the second time in eight days, I'm reluctant to draw any conclusions about the Hawks' dominant performance because their opponent performed so miserably. That the Hawks are accelerating the downward spirals of other teams is, of course, a very good thing in the grand scheme of things so we'll complement Jamal Crawford on his hot hand, Josh Smith and Al Horford on their efficient scoring, solid rebounding, and excellent passing, Marvin Williams on the second straight game in which he's made a real difference on the defensive glass, congratulate Mo Evans on his offensive explosion in garbage time, Jason Collins on his first points of the season, and give Joe Johnson a pass on his 16-shot, 12-point, 3 turnover, 5 assist, countless dribble night on account of his being excellent in the last competitive game the Hawks played.

It's nice to be on the other side of another laugher, to have the other team be the one in disarray, drifting aimlessly, its fans calling* for the coach's head, and regretting** recent first-round draft picks. I'm sympathetic, I'm grateful, and I know that if I were even to think that the Hawks might not receive another real test until they play the Jazz on the 18th, I'd get another reminder of the sort with which this recap began.

*with reason

**also with reason...Taj Gibson and James Johnson?

December 9th Game Thread: Chicago (7-12) @ Atlanta (14-6)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: ESPNHD, ESPN360, Fox Sports South

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Bulls

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

CHICAGO INJURY REPORT
: Kirk Hinrich is questionable and hopes to play tonight. Tyrus Thomas and Jerome James are out.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
CHI (off)
89.9
1.013
45.7 20.5
29.0 16.5
ATL (def)
90.5 1.078 50.1
25.9
26.4
15.5

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
CHI (def)
89.9
1.094
49.5 28.6
30.0 16.0
ATL (off)
90.5 1.138 50.4
21.6
29.5
13.3

TEAM CONSTRUCTION FUN FACT*: Taj Gibson is five-and-a-half months older than Josh Smith.

*Disclaimer: fact only fun if you are not a fan of the Chicago Bulls.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
: Atlanta -10.5, 196 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: By the Horns, Blog a Bull

PREVIOUSLY, THE CHICAGO BULLS...have lost seven of eight games, most recently a 103-101 loss at home to the New Jersey Nets last night. Things are not good in Chicago.
Jay Triano's scoring tough-guy points off Vinny Del Negro over this incident. A representative sampling of recent post titles at By the Horns and Blog a Bull: Epic Failure, Complete Embarrassment, Won't say rock bottom since there could be a ways to go, So...could VDN really be fired?, 2 more blowout losses.

I suspect the Bulls have hit rock bottom. It's almost impossible to underestimate the value of Hinrich returning. Not so much because of what Hinrich adds but simply because it will send Lindsey Hunter back to the bench. That the Bulls might trade Tyrus Thomas for someone the team will use will likely be a positive development, at least in the short term, even if it doesn't address the larger orginzational dysfunction that led them to draft Thomas rather than LaMarcus Aldridge and then appear to be profoundly frustrated that Thomas wasn't Aldridge. The aforementioned (and dazed) Vinny Del Negro could be replaced by a coach capable of unleashing Derrick Rose more effectively or just designs an offense less reliant on long two-point jumpers. Plus, the Bulls likely needn't win even half of their remaining games to make the playoffs. Not that earning the seventh- or eighth-seed will be especially satisfying, but still, it's something.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Marvin Williams: Scoring and Efficiency

click to enlarge graph

Marvin Williams continues to have a disappointing season offensively, both in terms of volume and efficiency but the shape of his production has changed a bit over the past few weeks.

Williams began the year in a terrible shooting slump, both from beyond the three-point line (making just 4 of 17 shots, 23.5%) and inside the arc (26 of 61, 42.6%) through 11 games. Williams was scoring at 72% of the rate (per possession) he averaged in the 2008-09 season and only managing that output thanks to a great performance at the free throw line (88.2 FT%, 38.5 FT Rate).

That was the low point of Williams' season. His scoring rate, though still well below last season's, has risen from 15.9 to 18.6 points per 100 possessions. He has made 14 of his last 29 three-pointers to raise his 3PTFG% to 39.1. His 2PTFG% has improved a touch, up to 44.3% on the season (though it got as high as 48.5% following his excellent back-to-back scoring nights against Houston and @New Orleans).

It's not all good news. As his field goal shooting has improved, Williams has failed to get to the free throw line at anywhere near the rate one would expect of him. He's attempted just 17 free throws over the last 9 games which has dropped his FT Rate* from 38.5 to 23.7 and kept his True Shooting Percentage (TS%) from equaling last season's mark.

I suspect the lesson to draw from this (beyond the sample size caveats) is that Marvin Williams is a young player still finding both his place in the league, in terms of what he can and cannot do against defenses, and his place in his team's offense. Expect variable performances.

*League average FT Rate in 2009-10: 23.1. Marvin Williams' FT Rate, 2008-09: 35.4

Monday, December 07, 2009

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Graph

As the fog that results from mainlining cold medicine for the better part of a week dissipates, sample-sizes grow, and the Hawks have a couple of off days, it's graph time. First up, the game-by-game season average of points scored and allowed per possession.

click graph to enlarge

The sixth game of the year, represented by that sharp offensive dip was the loss in Charlotte.

More graphs to come. Suggestions, questions, and criticism always welcome in the comments.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Hawks 80 Mavericks 75

Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 85.6
0.935
37.1 15.7
29.1 10.5
DALL 85.6 0.877 43.3
35.8
17.1
18.7

Jamal Crawford:
"It's a big win. If you asked people, they probably would have thought we'd win [Friday] night and lose [Saturday]. It flip-flopped. The league is funny like that sometimes."
One night, the Hawks show capacity to slow down the Knick offense at home. The next night, the Hawks thoroughly stifle the Maverick offense in Dallas. This is why I don't write preview posts. This is also why professional basketball fascinates. Two teams, two good teams turned in good efforts that created highly improbable results.

If losing to New York Friday night at home felt like giving a game away, last night's win had to feel like stealing one. Atlanta suffered through 16- and 14-point quarters. The Hawks didn't make a field goal, scoring just one point in the final 7:19 of the second quarter. Dallas reduced a 13-point deficit to a single point during that stretch* and took the lead by scoring the first two baskets of the second half.

*It's difficult to credit Dallas with making a run as they went scoreless themselves for 4:18 of that stretch.

Dallas couldn't push their lead past four points. The Hawks got even less than a minute after that Maverick high-water mark, never trailed again, and took the lead for good on a Joe Johnson runner that put them up 66-64 with 10:25 left in the game.

Last night was an example of why, even when arguing that Joe Johnson needn't try and carry the offense every night, one must acknowledge he can and will be called upon to carry the offense some nights. Johnson made 13 of 24 field goals (his teammates were 19 of 65) and all four of his free throws (his teammates made 10 of 18 from the stripe) to score 31 of Atlanta's 80 points. The Hawks needed Johnson's productivity as Dirk Nowitzki was doing similar things for Dallas, scoring 32 of their 75 points on 24 shots of his own. With the All-Stars largely canceling each other out, the difference between victory and defeat may have been* that the other Hawks rebounded better and turned the ball over less often** even if they shot the ball worse than their Maverick counterparts.

*Without discounting the obvious fact that neither team has a chance to win if Johnson or Nowitzki doesn't score an out-sized portion of the team's points.

**The Hawks did turn the ball over one more time than the official record shows as Al Horford clearly committed a backcourt violation with the Hawks up 3 and less than 10 seconds remaining.

I don't think the Hawks planned to play a lot of 80-75 games this season* but for a game wherein Josh Smith and Al Horford grabbed just 12 rebounds while committing 10 fouls, Mike Bibby made just one of nine shots, Marvin Williams just one of seven, and Jamal Crawford just three of twelve, a couple of things went comfortingly according to plan.

*Mike Woodson's not complaining:
"It was one of those old, ugly, drawn-out games, but it's the kind of game sometimes I like."
Points for honesty and self-awareness.


Johnson was an effective primary scoring option. Williams was a major contributor on the defensive glass. Perhaps most importantly, Joe Smith provided competent relief to a starter (Josh Smith) in foul trouble. Joe Smith scored six points on four shots and grabbed four rebounds in a 10-minute stint that stretched from late in the third through most of the fourth quarter. Credit is also due Mike Woodson for not overreacting to Al Horford's fifth foul sitting him for just 1:52 before bringing him back for the final 5:16 of the game.

Joe Johnson:
"I thought we showed a lot of guts coming off a tough back-to-back to come in against a team as good as Dallas and win."
Mike Woodson:
"Joe was huge tonight. I thought when they went zone, we hung in there and made plays against the zone we needed to, and that's kind of what got us the spurt we needed and we were able to hold on."
Rick Carlisle:
"Once again, we struggled to shoot the ball and some of that certainly was Atlanta. They have length and they are hard to score against."
Chris Duhon will drink to that, coach.

The Human Highlight Blog is more torn between outcome and philosophy than am I though I'm feeling more torn after having read that.

Josh Smith is a year older, but little wiser one front:
Asked what he had learned from being ejected from the team's Friday night loss to New York, Smith said, "not to mess with sensitive referees, I guess," before laughing. "I didn't really say anything to get kicked out like that, but the lesson learned is just don't say anything at all," Smith said.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

December 5th Game Thread: Atlanta (13-6) @ Dallas (14-6)

TIP-OFF: 9pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: Fox Sport South

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES
: Hawks/Mavericks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

DALLAS INJURY REPORT
: Josh Howard and Quinton Ross are out.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Dallas -4.5, 204.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: The Two Man Game

PREVIOUSLY, THE DALLAS MAVERICKS...lost 82-98 at Memphis last night, scoring just 31 points in the second half, providing a fair challenge to the Hawks in the which team had a worse night last stakes.

After the game, Rick Carlisle echoed Mike Woodson's comments in Atlanta:
"We didn't defend well enough at the beginning of the game or really at any point or any stretch of the game."
Since losing to Washington on opening night, Dallas have won seven straight home games.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Knicks 114 Hawks 107

Gameflow

Some fourth quarter details...
  • The Hawks scored on just 5 of their first 14 fourth quarter possessions to go from 84-83 after three quarters to 93-100 with 4:14 left.
  • The Hawks then scored on eight of their last nine possessions but failed to gain any ground as the Knicks scored on 7 of 8 possessions over the same stretch.
  • The Hawks didn't make a jump shot (they missed seven) in the fourth quarter until Joe Johnson's with 1:29 left, down 100-109.
  • In the game recap, I gave Teague credit for being +4 in 90 seconds of playing time, thinking that constituted just his third quarter stint. He was also on the floor for Jamal Crawford's garbage time layup, which gave the rookie a meaningless +2.
Mike Woodson:
"Defensively, we were nonexistent. Josh covers up a lot of mistakes sometimes. We got exposed a little bit tonight."
Joe Johnson:
"All the rotations we went over and over and over [in practice]; we just didn't execute."
Ken Sugiura:
[Josh] Smith, who apologized to his teammates following the game, was not in the locker room when media were allowed in.
Woodson:
"[Smith] just can't put himself in that position again."
Marvin Williams:
"You kind of hope a guy can contain himself in situations like that. I don't know what happened. It didn't look like anything too out of control. Obviously, the referee didn't like it."
Johnson:
"Those things happen. When they do, other guys have to step up."
The details on Joe Johnson's excellent second half: 22 points (9-13 FGA, 0-1 3PTA, 4-6 FTA, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover).

Chris Duhon:
"It was kind of a relief knowing when you went to the basket that he wasn't going to be there to knock it away."
David Lee:
"When he got thrown out, it was big for us, he changes the dynamic of the game with his shot-blocking and presence. After he left, we were just able to go to pick and rolls."
The Human Highlight Blog:
Josh Smith began to be enamored with his second favorite basketball vice, the complaint. After making a tough shot with a slight bit of contact, he blew up at Bob Delaney, earning him a technical foul. The Hawks were so de-focused as a team that they allowed Smith to continue to unleash venom at Delaney to the point where his services were rendered disqualified for the rest of the night. So on a night where the Knicks were ramming the ball down the Hawks' throat offensively, Atlanta's strongest lane deterrent chose obscenities over participation. The other Hawks seemed amused by this, but THHB was not. Not by Smith's actions, nor his teammates inaction.
Posting and Toasting:
The Knick defense and shot selection was superior to their previous game against Atlanta and, well, about 15 other games this season, but the Hawks also deserve recognition for failing to make shots from absolutely everywhere on the floor. They shot 4-23 as a team from downtown and I'm pretty sure I saw someone miss a tip-in from inside the basket. Sometimes the rim's got a lid.
Matt Moore wrote a very good post at Hardwood Parxoysm about the theoretical and practical implications of usage rate for individual players within the context of team success. I agree with almost all of it so, of course, I air my one disagreement in the comments.

The January 15th game against Phoenix and the March 21st game against San Antonio (both at home) will be broadcast on ESPN.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Knicks 114 Hawks 107

Boxscore

Highlights

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
NY 87.6
1.301
64.7 25.6
22.6 13.7
ATL 87.6 1.221 47.8
23.3
36.7
6.8

That pass the Hawks got defensively thanks to the abomination that is the Toronto defense? It's been revoked. In eight of the last nine quarters, stretching back to the decisive fourth quarter in Detroit on Sunday, the Hawks have allowed at least 26 points. That the one exception, tonight's third quarter, came in the midst of a game wherein the league's 22nd-best offense* scored 95 points in the other three quarters, including 31 in this decisive fourth quarter fails to balance the scales in any substantive way.

*entering the game

The season-worst 121 points per 100 possessions the Hawks allowed Toronto was rendered essentially irrelevant due to the aforementioned Raptor defense. Tonight, New York scored a new season-worst 130 points per 100 possessions. David Lee and Al Harrington and Larry Hughes and Chris Duhon scored at will. Despite their fourth quarter offensive performance (or lack thereof) the Hawks posted their fourth-best offensive efficiency of the season yet lost rather handily. To look at it another way, after their 11-0 start to the game, the Hawks were outscored at home by the Knicks 114-96 over 45 minutes.

Your author has long championed Josh Smith's potential. This year, he's consistently achieved expected yet even I can't place much blame for this loss on his second quarter ejection. The ejection is inexcusable. It's no shock to see Josh Smith complain about a no-call after he's not fouled. I suspect that the impetus for his admittedly more demonstrative than normal complaints was not the no-call so much as his embarrassment over the breakaway dunk he blew moments earlier. Either way, it's a terrible manifestation of what had been, year-to-date, at worst, repressed immaturity from Smith.

Smith's ejection certainly did not help the Hawks' defense in his absence but it doesn't absolve his teammates. Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford were the chief offenders, their latent defensive limitations exacerbated by poor offensive nights: 6 points on 6 shots (plus two assists) from Bibby, 12 points on 11 shots (plus two assists) from Crawford in 65 combined* minutes.

*The Hawks were +4 in the 90 second-half seconds Jeff Teague was on the court. For what it's worth.

The combination of Hawks offense/Knicks defense means it's not all bad news. Al Horford (17 points on 11 shots, 14 rebounds 4 assists, 0 turnovers) was excellent before and after Smith's ejection. Joe Johnson (29 points on 24 shots, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 turnover) was excellent after. Marvin Williams (20 points on 17 shots) was excellent before.

It wasn't enough, though. Not near enough. Now, the Hawks could go to Dallas tomorrow night and befuddle the excellent Maverick offense and confuse us further as to the team's potential but between now and then few positive thoughts will be thunk. Perhaps that's necessary to fuel the required defensive energy when confronted with the far superior offense they'll face next.

December 4th Game Thread: New York (4-15) @ Atlanta (13-5)

TIP-OFF: 7:30pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

CHAT:
Daily Dime Live

RADIO
: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES
: Hawks/Knicks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

NEW YORK INJURY REPORT
: Eddy Curry is out.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -10.5, 215.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: Knickerblogger.net (be sure to visit the stats page)

PREVIOUSLY, THE NEW YORK KNICKS...lost 118-104 in Orlando to snap a one-game winning streak in a game where the occasionally suggested in these parts potential cheap alternative to Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson earned a DNP-CD.

The Knicks have lost six of seven overall. Half of their four wins have come on the road (@Indiana and @New Jersey). After appearing to make some headway in improving the team defense (Their opponents' offensive efficiency dipped below 110 points per 100 possessions for only the second time this season after the loss to the Lakers in Los Angeles.) the Knicks have fallen off that brief, improved pace and are allowing 112.9 points per 100 possessions on the season.

The Hawks beat New York 114-101 at MSG on November 11th.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Hawks 146 Raptors 115

Gameflow

Highlights

Just for fun, the Hawks' offense last night, by quarter:

QuarterOff EffeFG%FT RateOR%TO%
1st1.43857.957.925.04.4
2nd1.68572.929.257.18.0
3rd1.80975.027.330.00.0
4th1.24754.330.450.023.4

Jay Triano:
"We were simply outclassed. They just destroyed us."
Jarrett Jack:
"The Hawks are playing great basketball, and I don't want to take anything away from them, but I know they don't average 140 points a game."
More from Jack:
"Every time something happens it's always, `It's okay, it's all right.' It's not all right. Problems go by without attacking them or challenging them or bringing them to the forefront and getting them solved. We can't keep keep putting them to the back of the bus and just saying, `That's okay.' It's not all right. Everybody can't walk on eggshells around here and say, `We're playing good basketball.' We're not."
Dave Feschuk's column gets better:

Said Antoine Wright: "You've got to address (the defensive issues) and you've got to show people on tape. It's not personal. If you want to win, you're going to have to make some sacrifices."

Wright, who has criticized Triano's schemes previously, was the only Raptor not to see the floor on Wednesday. He said Triano has failed to "call out" under-performing Raptors because unnamed teammates are "too sensitive" to criticism.
Antoine Wright is making less than 30% of both his two- and three-point attempts. Not that those averages (especially the latter) are a huge surprise given his established talent level. So, either Antoine Wright needs, really needs, to be the submissive in a coach-player relationship or Jay Triano got called out by his 10th or 11th man, one he has benched, for not being tough enough. Things are not functional in Toronto.

Chris Bosh:
"We didn't magically appear last on the charts defensively. Defensive effort hasn't been there for a while. ... I mean, tonight was just a total embarrassment. We've got to care about it...If we did care we wouldn't give up 145 points."
Mike Woodson:
"Guys are sacrificing the basketball, and that's how it's got to be offensively."
Encouraging words from the head coach. One hopes that Joe Johnson's removal from the game was due to shot selection as much as score and situation.

Al Horford:
"It was fun. It was one of those nights where we couldn't miss."
Less analysis, more venting from my colleagues north of the border. The only healthy response, in my opinion.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Hawks 146 Raptors 115

Boxscore

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
TOR 94.6
1.215
57.3 41.5
18.2 9.5
ATL 94.6 1.543 65.3
35.2
41.7
9.5

I don't know that I can add a lot to the above table. One watches the Raptors sees and knows that they're bad, really bad defensively but it's not until one watches them (not) defend the team* one's most familiar with* that the comprehensive nature of Toronto's failings become fully apparent. Toronto did not pressure the ball. They did not keep the dribbler in front of them. They did not challenge shots. The didn't rebound missed shots. They fouled fairly frequently. They did not force turnovers.

*A team about which the second half against Orlando and the intermittent commitment to getting good shots in the loss Sunday in Detroit live in the forefront of the mind.

Toronto looked so bad defensively that it's difficult to give Atlanta much more credit for their ease in scoring the basketball than one would give, say, the Kansas Jayhawks for scoring 98 points* at home against Alcorn State tonight. But that's not fair. The talent gap** between the Hawks and the Raptors isn't enough to explain scoring 146 points or 154 points per 100 possessions. No, the Hawks did what they chose not to do in Detroit. They kept it simple offensively. They moved the ball. They moved without the ball. If they dribbled, they dribbled toward the basket. It was easy. Part of that was Toronto's incompetence but part of it was Atlanta's competence.

*But only 122 points per 100 possessions.

**The difference in forethought regarding team construction might. How did Colangelo think the Bosh/Bargnani post duo would defend anyone? Sure, Bosh is great defending the pick-and-roll but who's going to run pick-and-roll when they can just dump it into their other big man in the post when he's guarded by Bargnani? So you put Bosh in the post where his lack of bulk is something of a weakness and then you still have Bargnani struggling to guard players away from the basket. It's a hell of a collection of offensive players but no sort of good team.

This rout doesn't solve anything. Most teams are going to take away the first, best, and easiest offensive option some* of the time. The Hawks will again (maybe even Friday night against the Knicks) have the opportunity to fall into old habits and their collective life more difficult. Tonight was fun, though, and should be enjoyed. I'm not even the least bit concerned about the Hawks allowing the most points per possession of any game yet this season. Toronto made this game perverse and it's unlikely to have much predictive value but failing to enjoy the laughers makes the season drag.

*Joe Johnson, after the Hawks scored on each of their first nine third quarter possessions (totaling 21 points), did use his last two on-court offensive possessions to dribble a lot at the top of the key before 1) missing a fall-away 20' and 2) missing a weak, floating runner amidst multiple defenders. He's still got it.

December 2nd Game Thread: Toronto (7-12) @ Atlanta (12-5)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: Fox Sports South

CHAT:
Daily Dime Live

RADIO
: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES
: Hawks/Raptors

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

TORONTO INJURY REPORT
: Reggie Evans is listed as day-to-day. It'd be just as well were he not to make his debut this evening as, were he to, I'd conservatively estimate him to grab, say, four offensive rebounds in twelve minutes.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -9, 211 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: Raptors Republic

PREVIOUSLY, THE TORONTO RAPTORS...lost 106-102 at home to Washington last night. It was Toronto's fourth straight loss but their best defensive performance (112.1 points per 100 possessions) since November 13th (spanning 10 games) when they held the Clippers to 105.7 points per 100 possessions in Los Angeles to pick up their second (and most-recent) road win of the young season.

Toronto's defense is terrible but their offense is very good. The Raptors augment Chris Bosh's high-usage, high-efficiency production and Andrea Bargnani's somewhat less high-usage, slighter more efficient production with a handful of role players (Turkoglu, Claderon, Jack, DeRozan, Belinelli) content to make what good looks they get while refraining from turning the ball over. Also, Antoine Wright plays a bit--purportedly to improve the team defense, but definitely limiting the team offensively.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Mario West, Professional Basketball Player

This one's for Karibo.

From Hardwood Paroxysm, where Matt Moore scours the D-League transaction wire:
The Maine Red Claws, presented by Quirk Chevrolet, today announced that the team has acquired Mario West. To make room on the roster, the team waived Stanley Thomas. The announcement was made by Red Claws President and General Manager Jon Jennings.

West, 25, appeared in 117 regular season games with the Atlanta Hawks over the last two seasons. He saw action in five preseason contests with the Hawks this season, putting in 2.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 1.0 spg. He was waived by Atlanta on October 22. West signed an NBA D-League contract and was claimed by the Red Claws.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Garret Siler Leaves For China

To play for Shanghai.

I don't know if that CBA offers a higher level of basketball than NCAA Division II* but, if not, both Siler and Little John Lucas should thrive.

*This list makes me suspect it does not.