Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Attention Basketball Junkies: Euroleague on ESPN360

Before joining the True Hoop Network, I was unaware that ESPN360 broadcasts live Euroleague basketball.

There are two kinds of people: those who think this is very cool and those who don't care at all. If you're the former (like me) and can access ESPN360 through your service provider (unlike me) today's game (2:45 EST tip) pits Unijaca (offical site, in Spanish) against Partizan Belgrade (wikipedia, best I could do with my limited grasp of Serbian).

Players of possible interest: Omar Cook (about whom much would have been written had Hoopinion been around when the Hawks were running Royal Ivey, Tyronn Lue, and Kenny Anderson's corpse out there at the point earlier this decade), Jiri Welsch, and Marcus Haislip play for Unijaca. Intriguing, undersized shot-blocker extraordinaire Stephane Lasme plays for Partizan Belgrade.

NBA Teams To Control Digital Rights To Live Broadcasts of Their Games Next Season

From Forbes.com (HT: Detroit Bad Boys):
Beginning next season, the league, along with its media partner, Turner Sports, plans to put digital rights for live games into the hands of its 30 teams, according to Commissioner David Stern. That would make the NBA the first major sports league to largely de-centralize its Web operation.

Details on possible terms, like fees and minimum advertising guarantees, are still being discussed. But league and team officials figure that local access, while cannibalizing pay products on NBA.com, will add more total viewers for basketball as a whole.

...

It's also an acknowledgment of fans' growing appetite for consuming games on multiple screens. With television, a typical club is allotted roughly 70 games in an 82-game season for which it can sell local cable rights, the balance held back for national telecasts. Now, as online viewership increases, individual teams naturally want a piece of that action.
Next season, the dream of watching all 82 Hawks regular season games may become a reality for more people.

Josh Smith's FT% By Game, 2008-09

Another simple one I made while working out the kinks. Had I to do it over again, I might have kept the X-axis at team games rather than games played so as to better see the time Smith missed due to injury.

The upper boundary of this graph is set at 70.3, Smith's career FT% entering the season.

Please add any questions, suggestions, or additional compliments in the comments.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

2008-09 Efficiency Graph

I believe that I've sorted out my 2008-09 Hawks' spreadsheet and can, from now until the end of the season, go graph crazy.

I start with a simple one: year-to-date Offensive and Defensive Efficiency after games 1-56.

Once I make sure this is legible, I'll begin to tackle more advanced issues.

Jazz 108 Hawks 89

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 92.7 0.96
54.3 18.6 21.6 21.6
UTAH 92.7 1.16 53.4 15.9
37.8
16.2

In a micro-tactical sense Mike Woodson coached fairly well last night. Things weren't transpiring according to plan so he deviated from the plan. He stayed with the Murray/Johnson/Evans/Smith/Horford lineup for the better part of the second quarter. That group played the only stretch of passable defense any combination of Hawks managed last night and pulled the game back from 29-48 to 52-61. A questionable goaltend call* against Josh Smith and a Ronnie Brewer halfcourt heave at the second quarter buzzer undermined their good work but they kept the game from being over at halftime.

*And, really, I'm reluctant to acknowledge it as a questionable call given Smith's overreaction to every foul called against him, against a teammate, or not called against an opposing defender. One would think that a player struggling in so many areas might have sufficient internal issues to prevent him from focusing on his perceived persecution by the referees. One would be mistaken in Smith's case.

Woodson gave Bibby (-20 in 12:12 during the first half) another chance to start the second half. Two minutes, 55 seconds, and three (Mike Bibby defended) CJ Miles buckets later. Bibby was done* for the night. At that point the Utah lead was 22, they'd scored 76 points in just under 27 minutes and the game was essentially decided** because, in a macro-tactical sense, Mike Woodson seriously diminished the Hawks' chances of winning in Utah when he decided that, defensively, this team would spend the season switching on every screen. It's a functional strategy against teams with a limited number of offensive options and/or little off-the-ball movement. Against Utah it essentially rendered the Atlanta defenders stationary, calling out switches but never moving their feet as the Jazz players ran their offense without interference.

*Having read the AP recap this morning and learned that Woodson sat Bibby because Bibby was sick, I've decided both to leave the above as written last night and delete the aside here about the positive sign that the Hawks might accurately value Bibby's strengths and weaknesses as a player at this point in his career and not commit cap suicide by re-signing him to a ridiculous contract this summer. Seriously, Bibby was sick? Sure didn't effect his defense. Zing!

**Even the resulting 6-0 Hawks run made little impact as it took over 2-and-a-half minutes, included a couple of missed free throws, and neither energized the visitors nor worried the hosts.

It's an odd, passive choice for a team that has an admitted problem with playing hard. Certainly, in general, some ground must be ceded in deference to Bibby's defensive limitations in order to reap the benefit of his offensive talents. I don't believe this to be any sort of platonic ideal of a defensive basketball team but they haven't been challenged to become a better defensive team. In the terrible home loss to the Clippers, Acie Law IV got chewed out by Woodson and Marvin Williams for screwing up a defensive possession by having the temerity to try and fight through a ball screen. A blown assignment? Yes. An example of a young player trying to earn more playing time by giving extra effort? Yes, also, but his effort was viewed primarily as disruptive rather than positive. A small moment, to be sure, but one that has obviously stayed with me for more than two weeks.

Utah's end-of-game offensive numbers should be damning enough but do not forget or overlook that they are dampened by a 15-point, 5-25 FGA, 0-3 3PTA fourth quarter. Jazz players not named Matt Harpring* went 1-19 from the floor and scored 4 points in the final quarter. Through three quarters, the Jazz scored 1.34 points per possession, shot 66.7 eFG%, and grabbed 42.1% of possible offensive rebounds.

*I suppose I should write something about Smith's flagrant foul. I don't think he made much of a play for the ball. I certainly don't think he made as impassioned a play for the ball as he made a play for Harpring. Harpring fell badly (but not intentionally so) but thankfully was not seriously hurt. I'm not proud of this, but, in the moment, I wanted Harpring to get to Smith so I could see how Smith would react to being confronted. Five years into his NBA career and we still don't know, do we? What would happen if someone said (and acted upon the following premise) to Smith, "You can't shoot. Work on your post-up game and you'll get some touches. Until then, focus on defending and rebounding if you want to play." It's hard to avoid (but impossible to do anything about) the fact that the root cause of Smith's current funk is that no one within the organization figured out four years ago that Smith was destined to be a power forward and should be tutored as such. So much wasted time and now he plays as if he has no idea who he is or what he can do to help the team win.

Last word to the head coach:
"The results of this game were an embarrassment."

Monday, February 23, 2009

February 23rd Open Thread: Atlanta (32--22) @ Utah

TIP-OFF: 9pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/Jazz

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT:
Speedy Claxton is out. Othello Hunter and Thomas Gardner are presumed still to be with the Anaheim Arsenal. Never mind.

UTAH
INJURY REPORT: Carlos Boozer is expected to return tonight.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Utah -7.5, 203.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
SLC Dunk

PREVIOUSLY, THE UTAH JAZZ...have won four straight games (wins over the Lakers, Celtics, and Hornets included), seven of eight, and 14 of their last 16 at home.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Retrodicting the 2008-09 Season With Statistical Plus/Minus

What follows is not an excuse for this but part of examination of why I was so wrong about a team I watch and think about so, so much.

Neil Paine's post on the Basketball-Reference.com blog (HT: True Hoop) may be of interest primarily to those with interest in and/or tolerance for math-intensive advanced stats. I'm not that strong on the math, myself, but I find this stuff fascinating and not just because the Hawks, with 28 games remaining, are 2 wins away from matching my predicted win total for the season.

As the tables at the bottom of the post show, even if you knew before the season started the exact year-to-date minutes played for the Hawks and were using what appears to be a fairly useful prediction tool, you might predict the Hawks to have the opposite of their record (22-32) through 54 games.

Why?

Well, further down, Paine lists (by team) each players' actual vs. expected Statistical Plus/Minus Score (SPM). Of the eight players in the Hawks' primary rotation, Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, and Flip Murray are all outperforming their projections; Zaza Pachulia is matching his projection almost exactly; Josh Smith and Mo Evans are underperforming* their projections.

*Both Bibby and Horford are outperforming their projections by a greater margin than Evans and Smith's combined underperformance.

I don't think it's news that the Hawks are playing well because a majority of their players are having better than average years by their various individual standards. For Williams and Horford there's reason to believe this season will serve more to raise their established standards rather than live forever as a career year.

For Bibby and Murray, who will both be free agents at season's end, I maintain my hope that the Hawks don't pay for or expect to see a season this good from either player in 2009-10 or any year thereafter. I don't envy Rick Sund at all.

D-League Roundup

Othello Hunter
  • Scored 12 points (6-16 FGA, 0-4 FTA) and grabbed 11 rebounds (5 offensive) on 2/18.
  • Scored 3 points (1-9 FGA, 1-2 FTA) and grabbed 8 rebounds (3 offensive) on 2/20.
  • Scored 10 points (5-12 FGA) and grabbed 11 rebounds (6 offensive) on 2/21.
Thomas Gardner
  • Scored 21 points (8-16 FGA, 3-7 3PTA, 2-2 FTA) in 26:13. Added 1 assist and turned the ball over three times on 2/20.
  • Scored 26 points (9-16, 1-6 3PTA, 7-9 FTA) in 31:06. Grabbed 7 rebounds, had an assist, and just one turnover.
I'll total up their lines and calculate the advanced stats once it's confirmed that they're rejoining the Hawks. Anaheim doesn't play again until the 27th, so it may be a couple of days before we know for sure.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Trail Blazers 108 Hawks 98

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 89.4 1.10 51.9 21.8 23.5 14.5
POR 89.4 1.21 52.2 13
39.1
8.9

I don't know about you, dear reader, but I quite enjoyed Josh Smith's defensive rebound last night. 9:07 of the third quarter will live in my memory for a long time. The other 39 minutes he played, the defensive rebound-less minutes, the jump shot missing minutes, the proving himself incapable of guarding Travis Outlaw or Brandon Roy minutes, and the blowing defensive assignments minutes (Of course, the resultant points from either of those last two scenarios are not Josh Smith's fault. These were petulant minutes, as well.) won't soon be forgotten, either.

It wasn't Mike Woodson's finest night, leaving Smith out there to undermine the team on both ends of the floor rather than using either of the hard-working, assignment-sound, and offensively productive frontcourt players available to him.

It began all too familiarly. Marvin Williams sat the for the final 9:14 and Al Horford the final 8:11 of the first half because they had the temerity to commit two personal fouls each. Thus limiting his options for no good reason (Williams finished the game with 4 fouls, Horford with 2), Woodson played Smith the entire time he sat Williams and Horford. Smith produced the following stat line over those 8+ minutes:

0-1 FGA

Even more inexplicably, Woodson, after removing Smith from the game halfway through the fourth quarter (presumably for some combination of poor defense, repeated fouling, and the increasingly intolerable (to this viewer, at least) complaining about being called for the fouls he commits after getting beat), Woodson put Smith back in two minutes later rather than use Al Horford to close out the game. Smith's stat line for the final four minutes:

(this space left intentionally blank)

It really shouldn't be so difficult to figure out your fourth quarter rotation on a night when only five guys (Bibby, Johnson, Murray, Williams, Horford) are playing well. That unit was on the court for two fourth quarter stints, one lasting 1:45, the other 1:48. In contrast, Nate MacMillan played his best lineup (Blake, Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw, Aldridge) for a single stint lasting 9:23 of the fourth quarter during which time Portland was +6 even after accounting for Flip Murray's productive garbage time cutting a 16-point Portland lead down to the 10-point margin of victory. The longest the Hawks played a single unit in the fourth quarter was 3:39 and that didn't occur until after they'd fallen behind by 16 points.

Friday, February 20, 2009

February 20th Open Thread: Atlanta (32-22) @ Portland (33-20)

TIP-OFF: 10pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/TrailBlazers

ATLANTA INJURY/TRANSACTION REPORT:
Othello Hunter has been assigned to the D-League and will be with the Anaheim Arsenal through Saturday. Thomas Gardner's been assigned to the Arsenal also.

PORTLAND
INJURY REPORT: Greg Oden and Martell Webster are out.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Portland -4.5, 192.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
Blazer's Edge (game preview), The Rip City Project

PREVIOUSLY, THE PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS...beat Memphis 94-90 on Wednesday playing without Greg Oden. Kevin Pritchard didn't make any deadline deals.

MAKE IT A DOUBLEHEADER WITH NBA ON ESPN360: NBA Shootaround (7:30pm), Dallas @ Houston (8pm)

WANT TO DVR ALL OR PART OF THE GAME AND WATCH IT SATURDAY MORNING? Friends of the blog, Second Shift are playing a reunion show at the Star Bar tonight with Y-O-U, Lowry, and Hot Pipes.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

A New Set of Playoff Probabilities

At Basketball-Reference (HT: True Hoop), Justin Kubatko has the Hawks 0.6% more likely to make the playoffs than they are in John Hollinger's probable future but Hollinger has the Hawks almost three times more likely to win both the East (2% v. 0.7%) and five times as likely to win the NBA Championship (0.5% v. 0.1%).

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Some Trade Deadline Links

Manny (statesboro ga) [via mobile]: Any news of the hawks in trade talks.

SportsNation Chad Ford: No ... they're still the Hawks
I'll keep this brief, but think about it: Only a few years ago, time barely existed in the Association. Market value for players was relative, and set each summer. GM's threw out huge deals, rarely considering how they'd hog-tie the team down the road. Max extensions created the illusion of franchise guys, though it was never quite clear who feted whom. Then came the mini-max, which urged teams to win now, and at the same time, opened the door for players to be free of a huge deal sooner rather than later (who knows, we might yet see that side of the coin). 2010 had everyone thinking about cap space two years down the road. And now, with money dearer than ever, suddenly dumping Brad Miller's contract—which expires in 2010—is worth it just for one year of savings.
Unless something unexpected happens, this will be the Hoopinion trade deadline post.

Hawks 105 Kings 100

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 98.6 1.06 47.2 25 28.8 12.2
SAC 98.6 1.01 48.8 22.9 19 16.2

Mike Bibby's defense gets criticized frequently in this space but the Hawks (probably) don't win last night* without him making two** good defensive plays in the game's final minute.

*They probably don't win without his 29 points on 19 shots with an eFG% of 63.1, either (eFG% for rest of team: 42.7), but that's a little more expected.

**Three if you extend the time frame back to 2:13 of the fourth and give him credit for conning the referee with a flop that drew Jason Thompson's fifth foul. I'm not entirely convinced there was contact on the play. A second camera angle might have cleared that up but the game was broadcast on SportSouth, and thus brought to us by a single, low-definition camera.
  1. Up 102-100 (thanks to a nifty clutch bucket from Joe Johnson) with 19 seconds left, Beno Udrih (who, frankly, had his way with Bibby most of the night) threatened to beat Bibby off the dribble and get free in the lane but Bibby stripped the ball which was recovered by Josh Smith who threw ahead to Joe Johnson who was fouled.
  2. Johnson only made one of his two free throws (This team does nothing to simplify matters for themselves.) so Bobby Jackson had a shot to tie the game with 9 seconds left. Jackson missed. Bibby boxed out Jason Thompson sufficiently well to draw Thompson's sixth foul as the rookie tried to grab the rebound.
The second play tantalizes. Sure, it might be a one-off play, a veteran getting the better of a rookie for a split second but couldn't it also be a first glimpse of the team making a concerted effort to improve their pitiful defensive rebounding? When was the last time Mike Bibby boxed someone out on the low block? Especially in his 45th minute of game action.

Al Horford (13 defensive rebounds) and Marvin Williams (7 defensive rebounds) led the improved effort ont he defensive glass. Sure Sacramento's only 24th in the league in offensive rebounding but the Hawks played without Josh Smith* and Zaza Pachulia for long stretches due to foul trouble that never materialized. Smith sat with two fouls for the final 19:32 of the first half (which ended with the Hawks down 4). He played the entire second half (during which the Hawks outscored the Kings by 9 points) and finished the game with three personal fouls. Pachulia was +10 in 9:47 in the first half. While he sat (and Solomon Jones played and played and fouled Kevin Martin on a made three-pointer and played some more) for the final 9:44 of the first half, the Hawks were outscored by 10 points.

*Who is apparently trying to stop wasting possessions on three-point attempts (just four in his last 17 games) without becoming a better basketball player. He doesn't make those long two-point jumpers appreciably more often than three-pointers, and, on the infrequent occasions they go in they're only worth, you know, two points. Factor in career lows in FT%, blocks (both in volume and rate), and rebound rate (both offensive and total) and Smith's season is, to date, a massive disappointment.

Horford complemented his rebounding effort with a strong offensive game, scoring 18 points on 12 shots, grabbing 5 offensive rebounds, and dishing 4 assists against a single turnover. Williams continued his offensive struggles since Joe Johnson returned to the lineup. In Johnson's absence, Williams, serving as a primary option on offense, scored 52 points in two games, 29 of those points at the free throw line. In the five games since Johnson has returned, Williams has scored just 49 points and attempted only 17 free throws.

Perhaps, if the Hawks were to integrate all of their offensive talent into the offense they wouldn't have to struggle to beat an 11-win team that was without 40% of their starting lineup. Maybe not, though, as there would still be the defensive mediocrity to overcome.

But, hey, the Hawks are 10 games over .500 and have a three-and-a-half game cushion for the fourth seed in the East. Things could be, nay, things have been much worse. I'll try and keep the gnawing concern that there's no good way to get this collection of players (and contracts) from 45 to 55 wins at bay until the off-season.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

February 18th Open Thread: Atlanta (31-22) @ Sacramento (11-43)

TIP-OFF: 10pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/Kings

ATLANTA INJURY/TRANSACTION REPORT:
Flip Murray is out. Othello Hunter has been assigned to the D-League and will be with the Anaheim Arsenal through Saturday.

SACRAMENTO
INJURY/TRANSACTION REPORT: Bobby Brown is out tonight. Brad Miller and John Salmons are on their way to Chicago.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -6, 207 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
Sactown Royalty

PREVIOUSLY, THE SACRAMENTO KINGS...lost their final five games prior to the All-Star Break, 13 of their last 14, and 25 of their last 29.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Lakers 96 Hawks 83

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 93.6 0.89 38.1 22.6 27.8 16
LAL 93.6 1.03 47.4 5.2 53.8 24.6

I find halftime of the West Coast games to be something a gauntlet so I try and reserve a few small tasks* to complete around 11:45 EST so I don't fall asleep and miss the second half. Before last night's game I hadn't considered that this might be an issue for the traveling party.

*Procrastination with a purpose.

Not that the first half offered much to indicate that the Hawks were an especially energized bunch to begin with. Atlanta couldn't do anything against the Laker defense, struggling both to create shots (17-45 FGA, 1-7 3PTA: 38.9 eFG%) and get to the free throw line (just 3 FTA) throughout the first half. Defensively, the Hawks kept themselves in touch by forcing nine turnovers and played decent defense on the Lakers' initial shot but allowed Los Angeles to grab 15 of 29 offensive rebound opportunities.

Most of their struggles carried over into (or became even more pronounced in) the third quarter (Lakers offensive rebounds: 7, Hawks defensive rebounds: 1) and, when augmented by the Lakers beginning to make shots, put the game out of hand early. I made the note "BALLGAME" with 9:58 left in third when, down 36-51 and coming out of a timeout the Hawks created nothing better than a Josh Smith 22-foot jump shot.

With a (presumably) winnable game in Sacramento tonight, Mike Woodson chose not to contest the fourth quarter. Mario West contests everything, however, and provided some cosmetic repair to the final score. I don't think his 7 point, 4 rebound, 5 steal performance (in 6:42!) will mean much in the long run but if it suggests to the head coach that his energy guy should maybe play more than 10 seconds at a clip we may have reason to look back on this game fondly. If not, we'll simply recall this as a night when the Hawks were put in their place.

Mike Woodson sounds a familiar lament:
"We played a quarter and a half and then they hit us in the mouth and they shut us down. Coming out in the third quarter, we were just flat, so flat, to the point where, when they hit us we didn't respond."
Woodson on rebounding:
"Just starting with the forwards. They played almost 30 minutes a game and get just three rebounds between them. That’s a problem."
Joe Johnson:
"Our rebounding attitude is obviously not sufficient. It was their will against our will and they wanted it more. We watched rebounds come off. We’re not trying to pursue it and get it. We don’t get it unless it comes right to us … that just kills me."
Johnson played 30 minutes and grabbed one defensive rebound.

Peachtree Hoops:
Josh Smith going through an entire game without a rebound is just horrible effort. I can't think of any other excuse. But it was not just him. The whole team was bad. An example from the second quarter that I will try to type through my tears. A Laker shoots a long jumper. No one boxes out Pau Gasol. A problem of course, but Joe leaves Kobe and stands directly behind Pau either planning to out tap the 7 footer for the ball or to get an over the back foul. Instead of doing either, the ball simply goes to a now unboxed out Kobe on a long rebound for an easy score. This is more than bad effort; it is bad basketball and bad basketball leads to triple doubles in the third quarter.
Hawks Str8Talk:
Blowouts happen to teams who rely completely and solely on perimeter scoring (and the Joe Johnson isolation play) to spur their offense.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

February 17th Open Thread: Atlanta (31-21) @ Los Angeles Lakers (42-10)

TIP-OFF: 10:30pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth HD, NBATV

RADIO:
Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/Lakers

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT:
Flip Murray is out. Othello Hunter has been assigned to the D-League and will be with the Anaheim Arsenal through Saturday.

LAKERS INJURY REPORT: Andrew Bynum is out.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Los Angeles -8.5, 213 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
Forum Blue and Gold

PREVIOUSLY, THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS...lost their final pre All-Star Break game 113-109 in Utah but still entered (and exited, for that matter) the break with the league's best record.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Owners Back In Court Today

Far less (at least on a moment-to-moment basis) interesting to watch than the Hawks' West Coast road trip, events perhaps more important to the franchise's future are set to transpire in the Circuit Court of Montgomery County (MD) beginning today.

Kristi E. Swartz will cover the trial for the AJC. From her long piece on Saturday:
A court document from Hawks and Thrashers co-owner Steve Belkin probably says it best:

“At this time, the parties dispute all issues in this case.”

Belkin is suing his seven business partners — four who live in Atlanta and three who are in the Washington, D.C., area — over how much his 30 percent stake in the teams and Philips Arena’s operating rights are worth. The owners want to buy out Belkin, who lives in Boston, but the contract that spells out that process is so vague that they haven’t been able to agree on a process or a price.

The dispute will come to a head Tuesday in Montgomery County, Md., Circuit Court. It will be up to Judge Durke Thompson to make sense out of the contract and decide whether it’s Belkin or the seven other partners who can select the next appraiser to place a value on the teams and arena operating rights.

The trial, which is expected to last about two weeks, is in Maryland because the owners previously agreed to litigate there. Each side has the right to appeal the judge’s decision, which could drag the already protracted legal process on for another nine months to a year, leaving the ownership of the teams in limbo yet again.
Resolution still does not appear imminent but any progress toward the time when someone owns the team outright and must take responsibility for the direction of the franchise is welcome.

Monday, February 16, 2009

No Flip Murray in Los Angeles or Sacramento

Sekou Smith reports:
The Hawks will have to play the first two games without sixth man Flip Murray, who will not be with the team due to a family emergency.
Mike Woodson speaks:
"That’s going to make things tougher because Flip is a big part of what we do and a huge factor for us off the bench. But we’ve had to play without guys all year in some capacity and we’ve always found a way to dig in and compete. So that’s what we’ll have to do now."
Acie Law's two-night audition begins in a little more than 31 hours.

The Most Important* NBA News of All-Star Weekend

*Unless you're a Miami or Toronto fan.

It didn't involve Joe Johnson finishing third in the HORSE competition, playing 21 scoreless minutes (with 5 turnovers) in the All-Star Game, or Mike Bibby barely tripping over the first hurdle in the Three-Point Shootout.

In New York Times Magazine Michael Lewis profiles Shane Battier and Daryl Morey to survey the current state of advanced stats (Or at least as much as Morey and the Rockets were willing to reveal about how they evaluate players.) in the NBA:
Battier’s game is a weird combination of obvious weaknesses and nearly invisible strengths. When he is on the court, his teammates get better, often a lot better, and his opponents get worse — often a lot worse. He may not grab huge numbers of rebounds, but he has an uncanny ability to improve his teammates’ rebounding. He doesn’t shoot much, but when he does, he takes only the most efficient shots. He also has a knack for getting the ball to teammates who are in a position to do the same, and he commits few turnovers. On defense, although he routinely guards the N.B.A.’s most prolific scorers, he significantly ­reduces their shooting percentages. At the same time he somehow improves the defensive efficiency of his teammates — probably, Morey surmises, by helping them out in all sorts of subtle ways. “I call him Lego,” Morey says. “When he’s on the court, all the pieces start to fit together. And everything that leads to winning that you can get to through intellect instead of innate ability, Shane excels in. I’ll bet he’s in the hundredth percentile of every category.”

There are other things Morey has noticed too, but declines to discuss as there is right now in pro basketball real value to new information, and the Rockets feel they have some. What he will say, however, is that the big challenge on any basketball court is to measure the right things. The five players on any basketball team are far more than the sum of their parts; the Rockets devote a lot of energy to untangling subtle interactions among the team’s elements. To get at this they need something that basketball hasn’t historically supplied: meaningful statistics. For most of its history basketball has measured not so much what is important as what is easy to measure — points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots — and these measurements have warped perceptions of the game. (“Someone created the box score,” Morey says, “and he should be shot.”) How many points a player scores, for example, is no true indication of how much he has helped his team. Another example: if you want to know a player’s value as a ­rebounder, you need to know not whether he got a rebound but the likelihood of the team getting the rebound when a missed shot enters that player’s zone.
This is a must-read.

March 1st Game Against Cavaliers Picked Up By ESPN

Official press release:
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has announced that the March 1 Atlanta Hawks home game against the Cleveland Cavaliers will move to 8 p.m. eastern and televised nationally on ESPN.

“We are extremely pleased that Hawks fans nationwide will get an opportunity to see our team next month,” said Hawks coach Mike Woodson, “and while we’ve enjoyed a great deal of success during the season’s first half, we expect to continue delivering that same type of effort as we prepare for the stretch run to the playoffs.”

This will be the third meeting of the year between these two teams, as Cleveland beat Atlanta 110-96 at Quicken Loans Arena on November 22, with the Hawks returning the favor a month later at Philips Arena (December 13), 97-92.

The broadcast will also air locally on SportSouth and on the radio at 790 the Zone (WQXI Sportsradio 790 AM).

Saturday, February 14, 2009

All-Star Weekend Open Thread

  • UPDATED 2/14 @ 8:28am CST
Here's the Hawks-centric All-Star schedule:

Friday, February 13th, 9pm: Rookie Challenge
  • Al Horford scored 10 points, grabbed 3 rebounds, and was a team best +12 in just 18:54 as the Sophomores beat the Rookies 122-116.
Saturday, February 14th, 8pm: Three-Point Shootout, HORSE
Sunday, February 15th, 8pm: All-Star Game
My All-Star Weekend viewing will be catch-as-catch-can but I'll be on alert for any news out of Phoenix and will strive to provide relevant commentary.

Until such news occurs, consider this an open thread for all your All-Star Weekend thoughts, Hawks-centric or not.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Hawks 99 Pistons 95

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 84.3 1.17 54 25.7 17.1 8.3
DET 84.3 1.13 52.5 15.2 27.5 11.9

I think it's nice* to end the first half of the season with a rather typical 2008-09 Hawks performance.

*That's just me practicing for my return to the Midwest this weekend.

With the exception of Mike Bibby's quiet night, most everything went according to plan.
  • Joe Johnson converted his shot opportunities both easy and difficult.
  • Josh Smith took some terrible shots but did enough else (7 assists, 7 rebounds, 4 steals) to negate his attempt at self-negation.
  • Marvin Williams and Al Horford got fewer chances than their offensive talent deserves but were efficient when given the chance.
  • Flip Murray took over the game for both good (the third quarter) and ill (his last three shot attempts) but mostly for good.
And thus the Hawks enter the All-Star break with 31 wins and a three-and-a-half game lead for the fourth seed in the East (plus the tiebreaker over the Pistons should it come to that).

Mike Woodson:
"That shows that we've got a lot of guys that are hungry last year after getting a taste of success in the first round against the world champs."
Joe Johnson:
"We just came out with a lot of intensity, and we tried to sustain it and give ourselves a chance down the stretch. This is a statement, but we still have a long way to go. We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. We want to stay humble, keep working hard and try to have a great second half."
Al Horford:
"This was just a huge game for us, and I think we all understood the importance of this game and finishing strong going into the All-Star break. For me, each game I feel better. Tonight I finally felt like I was back to myself, and now hopefully we can get a little momentum going into the break and beyond."
Links...

Peachtree Hoops
Hawks Str8talk
Piston Powered

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

February 11th Open Thread: Atlanta (30-21) @ Detroit (27-23)

TIP-OFF: 7:30pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth

RADIO:
Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/Pistons

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT:
Speedy Claxton blah blah blah rah-tah-tee-tah.

DETROIT INJURY REPORT: Allen Iverson (flu) and Rodney Stuckey (sprained right ankle) are game-time decisions.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Detroit -3.5, 188.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
Piston Powered, Detroit Bad Boys, Need4Sheed

PREVIOUSLY, THE DETROIT PISTONS...played without Allen Iverson and blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead to lose 107-102 in Chicago last night despite 30 points from their (now firmly entrenched) sixth-man Rip Hamilton.

The Hawks won the lone meeting between the teams earlier this season, 85-78 on December 21st in Atlanta.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Hawks 111 Wizards 90

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
WASH 93.5 0.96 45.9 29.7 19.4 19.3
ATL 93.5 1.19 51 11.2 36.4 7.5

One of my complaints regarding the Hawks' over-reliance on Joe Johnson is that every NBA team employs at least one player whose on-court value lies largely in his ability to guard opposing wings. I stand by that belief. In general. Currently, the Washington Wizards do not have anyone on their active roster who can even passably defend an All-Star caliber wing. Thus, last night, Joe Johnson got to do whatever he wanted: 9-16 FGA, 3-8 3PTA, 8 assists, and 0 turnovers in 34-and-a-half minutes.

Johnson's line could have been gaudier had he not missed some open shots. Of his 16 shot attempts, only his end of the second quarter buzzer beater was closely defended. Anytime the Wizards had to defend for more than 3.7 seconds they were at Johnson's mercy.

The Wizards need both Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison to play exceptionally well to win a game* right now. Jamison struggled to make shots last night, there was no one to pick up the slack, and the game stopped being competitive about half-way through the third quarter.

*See Sunday's 2 point win over Indiana where Butler and Jamison combined to score 69 points.

Mike Woodson took advantage of the weakened Wizards and rested all of the starters* (save Joe Johnson, who played the first six minutes of the quarter after resting during the end of the third) during the fourth quarter during which time the Hawks bench took advantage of the Wizards.

*Al Horford, suffering from a migraine, was already long gone at this point.

Against Javaris Crittenton, Nick Young, and Juan Dixon it may have been, but Acie Law IV scored 11 points, dished 7 assists, and did not turn the ball over in the game's final 15:28. Mo Evans, Flip Murray, and birthday boy Zaza Pachulia each took more than 10 shots and scored more than 10 points in extended playing time. Ideally, both the first and second units will be fresh and sharp in Detroit tonight.

After the game, Josh Smith's attentions had already turned to the Pistons and beyond:
"Detroit is right on our heels in the standings. So this sets up like a playoff game in terms of intensity. And it’s our chance to finish off on a positive note, because you never know what’s going to happen on that Western Conference road trip after the break."
Joe Johnson on Mike Bibby's return:
"Mike not only controls us on offense, defensively he gets everybody in their spots with his talking and helping. He makes other teams play honest."
Woodson on Mike Bibby's return:
"It’s great to have him back on the floor. He’s a big part of what we have done and what we do. He makes things happen on the floor by scoring and passes to open guys when needed."
Woodson welcomed the blowout:
"We hadn’t had a lot of games like this where we had the opportunity to rest our starters. It’s kind of nice, from a coaching standpoint, when you can sit over there and rest those guys and give some of your other guys a chance to play those minutes."
Nothing new on Acie's blog yet.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

February 10th Open Thread: Washington (-) @ Atlanta (29-21)

TIP-OFF: 7pm

TELEVISION: None local.

RADIO:
Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/Wizards

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT:
Mike Bibby and Thomas Gardner are game time decisions.

WASHINGTON INJURY REPORT: Gilbert Arenas, Brendon Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson, Andray Blatche, and Etan Thomas are out.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -8.5, 200 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
Wizznutzz, Bullets Forever

PREVIOUSLY, THE WASHINGTON WIZARDS...
beat Indiana 119-117 on Sunday. Caron Butler scored 35 points and Antawn Jamison scored 34. It was just Washington's fourth win in their last 21 games.

Atlanta has won both previous meetings with the Hawks this season, 91-87 in Washington on November 19th and 102-98 in Atlanta on November 29th. Josh Smith didn't play in either game. Al Horford missed the first meeting as well.

ALL-STAR NEWS: Joe Johnson will play HORSE GEICO against Kevin Durant and OJ Mayo on Saturday night.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Acie Law's First Start of the Season Engenders Concurrent Frustration

Acie Law IV did not make an especially auspicious debut start of the 08-09 season Saturday night. It wasn't a catastrophe though: 8 points (3-9 FGA, 0-2 3PTA), 6 assists, and 2 turnovers in 28:22. Perhaps, in considering the time Law* has missed through the injury, the number of games he's drawn a DNP-CD, how little he's played with the first unit, and the practice time he's missed recently because of family illness my expectations for Law were too low. I don't think anyone could, with a straight face, claim that Acie Law's production was the greatest concern to arise from the blowout loss at home to the Clippers.

*He also provided a moment of gallows humor when Law got chewed out by both teammates and head coach after screwing up a defensive possession by (gasp) fighting through a ball-screen rather than passively switching.

Today's paper* paints a surprisingly different picture. These are, to me, revealing quotes. I would not go so far as to speculate that the Mike Woodson-Acie Law IV relationship cannot be salvaged but I think it's fair to conclude that, right now, that relationship consists of two frustrated men.

*One further caveat, I don't know if the story's focus is a result of those quoted just answering the questions they were asked or that the quotes on this subject were simply the best quotes Sekou Smith received.

Acie Law:
"It’s frustrating. You don’t play the whole year and people tell you to be patient and to keep working hard and wait your turn, and then the one chance you get, the Clippers come out and hit every shot they throw up. I mean, they don’t miss. Joe [Johnson] is sick, Al [Horford] is coming off a long layoff from his injury. The team’s not at full strength, and it’s a bad showing. So you’re sitting here now wondering, ‘Where do we go from here?'"
Mike Woodson:
"Listen, I came into this season and I told everybody that nobody’s minutes are guaranteed. What minutes you get, you make the most of them. But you better be ready to play because you just never know when you’re going to be called upon. And that’s any team, I don’t care who it is. You just can’t play 12 guys consistently. In Acie’s defense, he hasn’t played and he’s not running the first team on a regular basis. But I can’t start two point guards. So at the end of the day, there really is no excuse. Acie was rusty. It happens. The bottom line is he has to be ready."
Law is frustrated he isn't playing more. Law is frustrated the team wasn't more successful when he got a chance to play Saturday night. Woodson is frustrated that Law didn't play better. Neither party seems ready to take responsibility for his role in Law's lack of development/production to this point of his professional career. Right now, I would wager that, were the Hawks to make a trade before February 19th, it would be one which exchanges what some team might still consider a promising young point guard prospect for a player that Rick Sund believes his head coach would trust enough to play regularly.

Monday, February 09, 2009

"I Don't Think We Play Hard Every Night."

So sayeth Mo Evans. The quote in full:
"Honestly, I don’t think we play hard every night. It’s not about the right team catching us on the wrong night or anything like that. It doesn’t matter. If we don’t give the right type of effort, it doesn’t matter if it’s the worst team in the league or the best team in the league. They’re going to give us the business if the effort isn’t there."

"I had a coach tell me once that there are bad teams in the NBA, but there are no bad players. So you’ve seen it happen to us a lot of nights this year, when players get it going and make it rough on you. And if you don’t play hard, that’s what can happen to you on any night."
I demurred on the subject of effort in my recap of Saturday night's game. Evans, though, makes it three votes (Marvin Williams and Mike Woodson both brought the issue up after the game) from those who are close enough to the situation to know better.

And Josh Smith makes it four:
"...our defense should be immune to who is and is not playing. Mo is right. It’s about our effort and the fact that we don’t bring it every night … and that’s something we have to fix."

Sunday, February 08, 2009

Clippers 121 Hawks 97

Boxscore

Gameflow

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
LAC 90.8 1.33 63.4 13.9 20.5 6.6
ATL 90.8 1.07 50 32.9 13.2 12.1

It was a bad night. There's no escaping that but I'm loathe to draw any conclusions about a game that fails the simple test of moving the needle on my pessimism gauge. That's because it was a weird night also. Mike Bibby's absence was felt in and of itself but it also exposed Acie Law IV's unfamiliarity with the first unit and vice versa. Both Joe Johnson and Al Horford were on shorter-than-normal rotations and neither looked at 100%.

Johnson took a while to get going. His first bucket didn't come until 5:02 left in the second quarter. Horford faded early on the back end of the back-to-back. He had four points and four rebounds in his 12+ second half minutes but both buckets came in the fourth quarter and, in both instances, served only to cut the Clippers' lead to 21 while bracketing the moment that alerted all witnesses that the Hawks had given up the ghost: Steve Novak beating the entire home team down the court for a fast break layup following a missed Flip Murray jumper.

The game's key sequence followed the second extremely timely timeout* Mike Dunleavy called during the game. With 9:52 left in the third quarter, the Hawks had scored the first six points of the second half to get within eight. Following the timeout, Los Angeles scored on their next seven possessions. On the eighth, Joe Johnson fouled Baron Davis in the act of shooting. Davis missed both free throws. The Clippers then scored on their next eight possessions with that streak stopping on the mild technicality of Al Thornton attempting a two-thirds court heave at the third quarter's buzzer.

*
Dunleavy called the first at 8:08 of the second quarter after the Hawks cut the lead to 34-25. Los Angeles scored ten straight points on five straight possessions following the timeout.

To recap: From 9:52 to :07.2 of the third quarter, Los Angeles scored on 15 of 16 possessions and on the sixteenth Baron Davis shot two free throws. The Hawks scored 25 points of their own during that stretch and lost ten points' worth of ground.

The third quarter finished the game off but the Clippers spent the first half putting themselves in a position to take control. They consistently identified and exploited matchups. Zach Randolph went on the block when guarded by Josh Smith and stepped out on the perimeter when guarded by Zaza Pachulia. In between ill-advised three-point attempts, Baron Davis used his strength to punish Acie Law in the post. Not that the other three Clipper starters didn't do a fine job of moving the ball, moving without the ball, and attacking the basket when the opportunity arose they were just a little more general* about it:
  • Al Thornton 16 first half points came on 12 shots, only one of which I noted as a questionable shot. 
  • Eric Gordon didn't see much of the ball but converted three of his six field goal attempts. 
  • Marcus Camby played two exquisite halves but was perfect in the first (4-4 FGA, 3-3 FTA, and 3 assists).
*Or two examples are the maximum I can competently process.

There was little for Coach Woodson to say after the game beyond the obvious*:
"[Mike Bibby] is a big part of what we do. We missed him tonight obviously. I don't know if he would have made that big of a difference...they shot lights out. Our defense was in Charlotte."

"We were flat from beginning to end. It's unacceptable. We didn't compete tonight. It's the first time I've seen that from this team this year (at home). We did not compete at all."
*That's not a criticism. That's a statement of (perceived) fact.

Or, as
The Human Highlight Blog puts it:
...this wasn't a cosmic fluke that "happens" to teams every so often in an 82 games schedule---it's the natural outcome of what happens when you don't play as a team in any way shape or form at any part of the game.
The flip side of that sentiment, courtesy of ClipperBlog:
Ball movement is a beautiful thing. That Spalding moves faster than a human being, faster than even Josh Smith. When it goes into the right player in the right place at the right moment, it can produce miracles. To wit: The Clippers generate 38 assists on 49 field goals tonight.
Josh Smith:
"We just weren't ready to play. We both had back-to-back games but I feel like we should have used that to our advantage. We should have been pushing the ball more than we did."
The Hawks' inability to push the ball consistently had far more to do with the Clippers scoring so consistently (1.33 points per possession, 63.4 eFG%, 6.6 TO%) than any lack of willpower demonstrated by the Hawks once they had the ball.

Marvin Williams:
"Those guys scored any way they wanted to score. We really didn't even make an effort to really stop them."
I'm not close enough to the team to judge the accuracy of either Williams' criticism of the team's effort nor Woodson's that the team did not compete but the quality of the result is not in question. The Clippers made half their three-point attempts, 59% of their two-point attempts, assisted on 38 of their 49 made field goals, rebounded their own missed shots more often than the Hawks rebounded their own missed shots, and turned the ball over on only one out of every 15 possessions. If there had been any more ways to be superior to the Hawks, I'm confident the Clippers would have demonstrated those as well.

Without overlooking the bad performance last night,
Mark Bradley takes a longer-term view of things:
Sund’s team played its 50th game Saturday night, and it was, sad to say, what the new GM calls “a clunker —- you’re going to have three of those a year, and you hope no more.”

Let’s hope. The Hawks were beaten by 24 points at home by a terrible Clippers team. But one game, wretched as it was, cannot eclipse what has become a bright, shiny season. The Hawks still hold the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference and are on pace to go 48-34, which would represent a clear upgrade from the eighth-place finish and the 37-45 record of last season.

And the GM is beginning, ever so warily, to believe. “We’ve had so many injuries, and we’ve handled it,” Sund said. (For the record, he spoke Saturday morning.) “That’s a real endorsement of this team.”

Saturday, February 07, 2009

February 7th Open Thread: Clippers (11-39) @ Atlanta (29-20)

TIP-OFF: 7pm

TELEVISION: SportSouth

RADIO:
Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES:
Hawks/Clippers

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT:
Mike Bibby is out. Thomas Gardner is out. Joe Johnson will play.

CLIPPERS INJURY REPORT: Chris Kaman, Mike Taylor, and Mardy Collins are out.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -7, 201 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES:
ClipperBlog

PREVIOUSLY, THE LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS...beat the Grizzlies
126-105 in Memphis last night to break a seven-game losing streak.

The Hawks won the meeting in Los Angeles
97-80 on January 14th. The Clippers were without Zach Randolph, Baron Davis, and Chris Kaman that night.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.