Hoopinion's NBA Predictions

I've put this off as long as possible. But having come to the following realization: What's more important, though, being right or publishing your predictions before Kobe gets traded so as to have an unimpeachable excuse for some of what you get wrong? I trudge ahead.

Legitimate NBA Championship contenders

San Antonio
Dallas
Phoenix
Houston

San Antonio's the clear favorite to me considering Phoenix's lack of depth, the fragile health of Houston's two superstars, and Dallas's playoff implosion against the Warriors last year. That loss, though, had as much to do with Nellie as the Mavericks possessing a fundamental flaw that lots of teams can exploit so they're far more likely to go from first-round losers to NBA champions than are the Rockets.

Mavs second-favorites for the big trophy, then.

Favorites to lose in the NBA Finals

Chicago
Boston
Cleveland

Each of these teams hope to get better as the season progresses. Chicago hopes to add a superstar for their plethora of above average players to support. Boston hopes that the opportunity to play alongside Garnett, Pierce, and Ray Allen will tempt a bought-out veteran or two to offer what production they can off the bench. Cleveland hopes to get Varejao and Pavlovic re-integrated into the rotation while Daniel Gibson continues to develop. None of these teams, however, as currently composed would be favored to beat any of the four best teams in the West in a seven-game series.

Two playoff locks from the Northwest Division

Denver
Utah

The main problem I have with power rankings is that though both of these teams will be better than 11-15 Eastern Conference teams, that isn't really worth anything in the real world if they're going to be worse than four Western Conference teams.

I like Denver to win the division, for both to be pesky first round opponents, and one to be a pesky opponent again in the second round.

A bunch of Eastern Conference playoff contenders clustered around 40 wins

Detroit
Orlando
Toronto
Miami
Washington
New Jersey

I'd be shocked if Detroit missed the playoffs. I'd be almost as shocked if they won 50 games again. A slow descent is indicative of a well-run franchise. I think the Pistons have a decent chance of rebuilding without ever missing the playoffs.

Orlando is my pick to win the Southeast which might be a race to 45 wins instead of 42 this year with the Heat acquiring Ricky Davis and Mark Blount for Antoine Walker. Not that it will matter if Miami doesn't get at least 90 combined regular season games from Wade and Shaq.

Barring significant injury to Chris Bosh, Toronto should make the playoffs comfortably even if they don't match last year's 47 wins.

Though they were debilitated by injury come playoff time, Washington was relatively healthy in the regular season overall. Barring a major roster change, I see them within a couple games of .500 again. Same with New Jersey and their aging stars carrying a next generation of players who aren't very good.

One or two of these teams will make the playoffs ahead of one or two of the above teams

Atlanta
New York
Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Indiana
Charlotte

Somebody in the above grouping will crater and at least one of these teams will manage to win 38 or more games and sneak into a playoff spot. I don't know which one and it probably won't much matter in the history of whichever franchise manages to do so.

Three teams for two spots

New Orleans
Los Angeles Lakers
Golden State

New Orleans has an excellent shot to make the playoffs this year as the bottom 60% of the West has gotten appreciably worse (some, to be fair, have gotten worse to get better) and the two teams closest to them in talent level are far more volatile.

The Lakers, you might have heard, could trade want-away Kobe Bryant. Golden State is relying on Don Nelson's continued interest in being the head coach, Baron Davis's physical health (and Monta Ellis's to a lesser extent), and Stephen Jackson's mental health. Plus, the Jason Richardson-for-Brandan Wright swap was not made in the interests of short term improvement.

The future is not yet now

Portland
Seattle
Memphis
Sacramento

None of these teams is trying to contend this year. Portland's letting their young core develop while Oden heals. Seattle's letting their young core develop while they try and decide on a point guard and center. Memphis is letting their young players prove they can worth keeping around alongside Gasol and Conley. (My guesses are 'yes' to Warrick, Mike Miller, Navarro, and Darko; 'no' to Gay and Swift with Lowry thrown into a trade) And Sacramento is trying to find out what they can get for Bibby, Artest, and Brad Miller that would complement Kevin Martin.

You try and make the case that they're even trying

Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota

I guess there's a chance that the Clippers find enough teams desperate for veteran help that they can offload Cassell, Mobley, Patterson, and Tim Thomas for someone or something of value. More likely they trade Maggette for less than he's worth while watching Al Thornton put up good numbers when he can dominate the ball on a terrible team and decide to build around him and Elton Brand not realizing that Thornton's the new Orlando Woolridge (and he's not that much younger than Woolridge).

As for Minnesota, Glen Taylor is stupid and gullible. I don't see how things can get better as long as he owns the team.

Hawks Prediction and Preview Addendum

Here's what I missed out on with compiling yesterday's post:

Atlanta Hawks Blog predicts the same 42 wins as Mr. John Hollinger.

Marty Burns at SI.com and ESPN.com's Marc Stein release their pre-season power rankings.

Hoopinion's NBA predictions to be posted later this afternoon.

Hawks Prediction and Preview Round-Up

Three weeks worth of links to predictions for and previews of the 2007-08 Atlanta Hawks. If I've missed any, add them in the comments or shoot me an e-mail.

ESPN.com

Chad Ford picks the Hawks to finish 9th in the East and eight other ESPN.com writers pick them to finish somewhere between 11th and 15th in the Conference. Outlier John Hollinger predicts (quite bravely, I say) a 42-40 record and the 7th seed in the East. His prose, however, hints at a reasonable undercurrent of pessimism:

"For a rebuilding team, there comes a time when they accumulate so many high first-round draft picks that, regardless of how badly they've been run, they almost can't help but become a decent team. For the Hawks, that time has come."

and

"A lot of people disregard this, but sometimes a team can improve very rapidly merely by replacing awful players with average ones. And you'd have a hard time finding two players more awful than Claxton (PER 7.37) and Wright (6.65) were last season. Furthermore, unlike most awful players, they played a lot -- more than 2,000 minutes between them. Thus, just swapping them with a replacement-level player would add over three or more wins to Atlanta's total. Replacing them with somebody halfway decent should double or triple the effect."

Impending Firestorm is two games less optimistic than Hollinger.

Projected Record: 40-42. I’d like to think Atlanta could hit .500, but let’s not go crazy here. It’s hard for a team to turn around and win 12 games more than they did the previous season.

David Berri comes to a similar conclusion at The Wages of Wins Journal:

"Can this team post a winning record? It’s possible, but it requires the Hawks be healthy, that they put their most productive players on the court, and put these players in the right position. So far all that hasn’t happened very consistently. Still, if it did happen, the same old Hawks might actually win a few more games."

Jack McCallum suggests of the Hawks, "I do see a team that can challenge for the playoffs in the East.”

The magazine itself pegs the Hawks 13th in the East and Ion Thomsen talks with at least one anonymous advance scout who really doesn't like Josh Smith:

"I give them no hope of making the playoffs. Josh Smith is the embodiment of all of their problems...Where do we begin with Smith? He'll dunk it three times straight, and next time down he'll want to see if he can get the three-point shot working and so he'll throw one up out of the flow ... clank. Or he'll make some stupid pass into the third row, or he'll jump in the air and throw it at somebody's knees like Nolan Ryan from 10 feet away..."

It continues it that vein for another 200 or so words.

Peter Pan Complex's predicted 45 wins don't rest on a difference of opinion about Smith's past but rather on optimism about his future.

"Smith is really the key to the success of this team. If Woodson employs a high tempo offense, J-Smoove will be the catalyst. Remember, he'll be just 22 years old in December. He has the ability to become a superstar and he is already well on his way, but his attitude and lack of leadership have derailed team chemistry and led to distractions on the court. Smoove needs to mature this year and be a leader on and off the floor. Hopefully the winning attitude brought by Horford and the gritty example Law sets will have a positive impact on Josh."

Marty Burns thinks Atlanta has two of the NBA's ten impact rookies.

10. Acie Law IV: “The 6-3 point guard from Texas A&M has shown flashes in the preseason of a Chris Paul-like breakout in Atlanta, but he might not log enough minutes. Hawks coach Mike Woodson is under pressure to win now, which means he'll probably go with veterans Anthony Johnson and Speedy Claxton for the bulk of the QB duties.”

3. Al Horford: “Like [Al] Thornton, Horford appears ready to step in and make an immediate contribution for his club. The former Florida Gator was averaging 11.7 points, 8.9 boards and 2.0 blocks in 30.1 minutes in the preseason, and coach Mike Woodson swears he has no fear about throwing Horford into the mix right away. Look for him to be a solid pro right from opening night.”

At the NBA Fanhouse's Valley of the Most Likely, Shoals writes that the Hawks will be underappreciated

“Here's a bold prediction: The Atlanta Hawks will sniff .500 this season, and be one of the league's most entertaining teams. Call them the second coming of the 2001 Clippers.”

I think he might have meant the 2002 Clippers.

Over at Freedarko.com, Shoals, Billups, the Brown Recluse, Esq., and Dr. Lawyer IndianChief preview every player.

Player preview I most hope comes to pass:

Stoudamire, Salim: will score 45 in a game.

John Schuhmann starts the Hawks at 23 in the NBA.com Power Rankings.

Finally, Charley Rosen is wrong about Josh Childress (“…Josh Childress has yet to become more than a superior athlete who struggles to find his niche in the NBA…”) who, if he can find a useful niche in the dysfunctional Hawks teams he's played for, can find a niche anywhere in the league.

Rosen's conclusion about the Hawks reads as eminently reasonable:

“If Law and Horford can have an immediate impact, if JJ can stay healthy, if Williams makes a quantum leap, and if Smith has undergone a personality transplant, then the Hawks just might surpass last season's total of 30 wins. In any event, they'll continue being a dangerous team at home, but chumps on the road.”

Mario West Made the Team

Mike Woodson:

"Make no mistake about it, Mario West earned his spot on this team."

West could be genuinely useful backing up Joe Johnson. Not in the sense that I expect him to be especially productive in the immediate future but moreso in that I hope he can prevent a two point guard backcourt from breaking out.

More from the man who found playing time for Royal Ivey despite Ivey's inability to display any tangible proof of usefulness as an NBA player:

"Since I've been here I have not viewed a player like I have Mario West. In terms of just making a major difference, he does that every time out. He makes a major impact just with his energy. And it's not fake. The way he plays does wonders for people around him. That's just how this kid plays. We were watching him in summer league and in pick up games. That's just how this guy is wired."

Considering the unlikely nature of all four of the point guards being healthy at one time and the redundant nature of having both Solomon Jones and Lorenzen Wright at one's disposal, West figures to challenge Salim Stoudamire for the final active roster spot most nights. If you combined their skills you'd have one useful basketball player. If you had more players in better defined roles you could make use of either one. I'm skeptical of it mattering much, but Stoudamire/Jones/West is a more interesting back end of the roster than Ivey/Batista/Bozeman.

Completing the story, Antywane Robertson, Steven Smith, and Jamaal Tatum were released today. Robinson and Tatum received token minutes in the pre-season while Smith played but six minutes across three games.

Hawks 107 Hornets 98

Boxscore

The pre-season slate came to an uneventful end with the Hawks winning for the seventh time in eight tries. We're left with roster moves, possible extensions for Joshes Smith and Childress (which seem unlikely), previews, predictions, and, one hopes, no injury news for the next week and a day.

And no more gifts given to other members of the Southeast Division.

Hawks 103 Wizards 99

Boxscore

Efficient offensive play from Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, and Al Horford outweighed an atypically poor shooting night from Joe Johnson (and a typically poor shooting night from Anthony Johnson) and thus the Hawks won for the sixth time in seven pre-season tries. M. Williams, Childress, and Horford were 19-29 from the field and 18-22 from the foul line.

Tyronn Lue played 20:48 in his pre-season debut, going 4-9 from the floor (0-3 on threes) with 5 assists against no turnovers. There's no mention of how he looked in the AJC's game stories (both of which were clearly written prior to tip-off). Ivan Carter mentions a couple of instances of Gilbert Arenas blowing by Lue in the second quarter but that doesn't necessarily mean much w/r/t Lue's health. Or Gilbert's for that matter. He had fluid drained from his knee last Wednesday.

It's imperative that Lue and Acie Law IV get and stay healthy. Though the Hawks are clearly improving, I'm skeptical that they're good enough to withstand substantial minutes going to either a gimpy Speedy Claxton or a healthy Anthony Johnson.

The pre-season slate concludes Wednesday night in New Orleans.

Hawks 104 Bobcats 98

Bosxcore

I listened to a bit of the game on Hawks.com this morning. Lots of North Carolinian schoolchildren, excited by non-basketball related events during the first quarter, tended to overshadow the combination of a caffeinated Steve Holman and a still-sleepy Dennis Scott.

Josh Childress (19 points on 7-12 shooting, 4 offensive rebounds) and Acie Law IV (10 points, 5 assists) returned to action. Joe Johnson was rested.

Unlike their previous pre-season meeting, Atlanta kept the Bobcats off the offensive glass, grabbing 87.5% of possible defensive rebounds. No one, however, came anywhere close to handling the great Gerald Wallace who scored 34 points (11-18 FGA, 1-1 3PTA, 11-14 FTA), grabbed 10 rebounds, adding 2 steals and 2 blocks.

Micah Hart reports on Zaza Pachulia leaving the game and not returning:

"Zaza Pachulia suffered a left knee sprain late in the third quarter, and did not return to the contest ... He will be re-evaluated tomorrow."

The Hawks finish up their pre-season slate with games Monday (Washington) and Wednesday (@New Orleans). We are 15 days away from tipping things off properly.

Hawks 103 Timberwolves 77

Boxscore

Mario West's #1 Fan, Sekou Smith, provides an eyewitness account of every player's performance from the game last night. There's an encouraging description of Marvin Williams' offensive performance and a positive evaluation of Anthony Johnson's night that makes me skeptical.

No news on the results of Acie Law IV's left wrist MRI. No news may well be good news as the AP reports that Speedy Claxton's knees aren't even allowing him to practice right now.

For some reason, the next pre-season game takes place Thursday morning in Charlotte

Portland 102 Atlanta 89

Boxscore

The Hawks struggled to score on an afternoon where they rested Speedy Claxton (his knees already sore after two pre-season games) and were without the injured Tyronn Lue (knee) and Acie Law IV (scheduled for an MRI on his left wrist today). Fourth and fifth string point guards Anthony Johnson and Jamaal Tatum both struggled (somehow combining for 15 shot attempts, making 5) as the Blazers dared the Hawks (also without Josh Childress and Salim Stoudamire) to make jump shots against their zone.

Joe Johnson:

"They played zone practically the whole game. And if you can't make an outside shot, they're going to stay in it."

Far more disturbingly, Johnson also said:

"Honestly, I think our bigs took their bigs lightly and they just got outplayed."

Atlanta couldn't handle LaMarcus Aldridge (29 points on 18 shots, 11 rebounds) at all. Al Horford had 14, 11, and 3 off the bench so I assume Johnson is talking about some combination of Pachulia, Marvin Williams, and Josh Smith each of whom I like but none of whom should possess the temerity to take anyone lightly.

The Hawks return to action Tuesday night against the Timberwolves.

Hawks 109 Bobcats 104

A quick one while I'm away...

Boxscore

48 more free throw attempts (and 39 makes) and another win to stack on the pre-season pile. Gerald Wallace, Primoz Brezec, and Jared Dudley didn't play for the Bobcats. Speedy Claxton and Tyronn Lue sat this one out for the Hawks.

Of concern, allowing Charlotte to grab over 40% of possible offensive rebounds. Nine different Bobcats grabbed at least two offensive rebounds.

This will/should be more interesting once I see something.

Hawks 106 Heat 100 (OT)

Boxscore

Unless Pat Riley decides to pique my interest and make Wayne Simien and Daequan Cook part of the Miami Heat rotation this year, the Hawks faced a relatively full strength Heat squad last night in Miami.

Jason Williams, Udonis Haslem, Dorrel Wright, and Smush Parker all played over 25 minutes. Shaq and Antoine Walker (all 262 punds of him) played over 15 minutes a piece while Alonzo Mourning and Michael Doleac both made appearances on the court. Seriously, that's the Heat approaching full strength. How many nights can one realistically expect Shaq and Wade to be healthy simultaneously?

Not much to pass along from the game reports but it's nice to see that the Hawks got to the line a lot again last night. That's 95 free throw attempts through two exhibition games. Even though they're only making 70.5% of those attempts, that's as close as they're coming to demonstrating a team-wide offensive strength.

Pre-Season Game #2: @Miami

Tonight's exhibition game may not offer much insight as the Hawks may not face NBA opposition.

Dwyane Wade's out, of course, and Michael Cunningham of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel describes Pat Riley as "noncommittal" regarding the likelihood of Shaquille O'Neal, Udonis Haslem, Alonzo Mourning, Antoine Walker, and/or Penny Hardaway playing tonight. Smush Parker is recovering from a right ankle injury and missed a day of practice last week for failing to meet the team's conditioning standards.

None of those guys played Monday night against the Pistons, reducing the Heat to Jason Williams and a bunch of end-of-the-rotation (or would be end-of-the-rotation) guys. Dorell Wright was the only Miami player to play more than 25 minutes. Marcus Slaughter and Brian Chase were the only Miami players to score more than 9 points.

Atlanta 94 Orlando 93

Boxscore

Couldn't see it, couldn't listen to it, so here's Sekou Smith from Orlando:

On the Hawks offense and pace:

In the brief moments that the Hawks did get up and down the floor Monday night, they showed that they can thrive with an up-tempo style.

They didn't run nearly as much as they wanted to, though. And they certainly didn't run as much as they needed to against a team like Orlando, with All-Star center Dwight Howard controlling the paint on both ends of the floor.

...the Hawks weren't as effective in the half court as they were when running, employing their new run-whenever-you-can approach for the first time in a game situation.

They ran their way to brief leads in the first quarter (19-13) and third quarter (62-58), but played catch up for most of the night because they couldn't maintain a frantic enough pace.

Woodson was still barking at his team to "keep running" in the fourth quarter, to no avail at those times when the Hawks' bodies didn't agree with the orders.

Both teams had over 102 possessions, so the game was played about 5% faster than the average Golden State Warriors (97.6 poss/48, #1 in the NBA) game last year. I'm sure that at pre-season intensity it didn't seem that fast but there were a lot of possessions for a game between teams that averaged fewer than 89 possessions per game last season.

On pulling out the win:

Rookie point guard Acie Law's driving layup with 25.1 seconds to play proved to be the difference. That play came after Law threw a pass away on the baseline but got back on defense, stole the ball and drove the length of the floor.

"I just messed up and that's no time to hang your head," Law said. "You just have to go back on the other end and make up for it. And that's what we did and we were able to get the win, too."

On Dwight Howard:

Their victory was aided greatly when Howard sat on the bench resting for the final six minutes of the game.

Making matters worse for the rest of the league is that Howard has evolved from the dunk-happy monster he's been the past three seasons. Now he's added a face-up jump shot and some up and under post moves to a physical repertoire matched by barely a handful of players in the NBA.

Howard finished the night with 30 points, 11 rebounds, four blocks and also cleaned up whatever messes he could for a Magic team adjusting to playing without veteran leader Grant Hill, who left in the offseason for Phoenix.

Up next, the Hawks travel to Miami to play the Heat (103-86 losers to the Pistons last night) on Wednesday night.

Pre-Season Game #1: @Orlando

Little news at this early date outside of Sekou Smith reporting that the first unit consists of Speedy Claxton, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, and Zaza Pachulia.

The opposite end of the depth chart suggests little potential interest in roster battles. Josh Childress, Al Horford, Acie Law IV, Shelden Williams, Tyronn Lue, and Anthony Johnson figure to take up roster spots 6-11. Lorenzen Wright, Salim Stoudamire, and Solomon Jones should be safe as well.

Both Jamaal Tatum and Steven Smith would have been interesting in recent Hawks camps but with neither Royal Ivey nor Esteban Batista around this autumn, Tatum and Smith face an uphill battle to prove themselves good enough that someone else's guaranteed money gets eaten.

No TV or radio tonight. I'll explicate the box score tomorrow.

A New Direction

I spent the better part of the off-season assessing my small place in the basketball blogosphere and have come to following conclusion: There needs to be a blog about the 2007-08 Atlanta Hawks written by someone inordinately proud of having once described his professional basketball loyalty thusly, "Essentially, I'm still a Kansas City Kings fan."

I will most likely still write about the Kansas Jayhawks either here or at PhogBlog or HackTheBracket, but will cede my amateur efforts at college basketball analysis to Ken Pomeroy and John Gasaway's new project.

First pre-season game tips off on Monday night in Orlando.

The season proper starts November 2nd against the Mavericks.

Until things get televised, I'll be shamelessly piggy-backing Sekou Smith and Micah Hart. Thanks in advance for the boost.

Garnett To Boston For (Up To) Six

It's official, per Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald:

Garnett has agreed to a three-year extension with the Celtics beyond the two remaining on his contract, guaranteeing that he will be a Celtic for the next five years.

A league source just confirmed that the Celtics and Timberwolves have finalized a deal that will bring Kevin Garnett to Boston in exchange for Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and two first round draft picks.

Garnett is expected to arrive in Boston this afternoon for a physical.

There's no greater Rajon Rondo booster than myself, but he's going to have to improve quickly for the Celtics to fulfill even the most reasonable of their fans' wishes. I won't go so far as to categorize the likelihood that Rondo emerges as an above average point guard next season as probable, but Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen will go a long way toward helping Rondo demonstrate his strengths (ball-handling, passing, defending point guards) and masking his weakness (shooting, a profound disinclination to shoot that goes beyond an understanding/admission of his shortcomings). Danny Ainge still needs to find a backup point guard. Gabe Pruitt isn't going to cut it.

I'd be a lot more optimistic about the 07-08 Celtics if I knew for sure that Tony Allen will be healthy enough to engage in his typical stout defense and enthusiastic dunking while spelling Pierce and Ray Allen because there is a chance that Garnett + Kendrick Perkins + Leon Powe + Glen Davis + TBD veteran FA big man constitutes a decent rotation. I don't, however, like Ainge's chances of finding a free agent backup in the post AND a free agent backup point guard AND a defensive-minded free agent swingman to back up both Pierce and Ray Allen. The man took a roundabout path to rebuilding this team in the first place and the extent to which he has succeeded in doing so as of today depends a fair amount on the ineptitude of various Eastern Conference franchises.

As for the Timberwolves, I have to admit that the promise of Gerald Green joining a team that already employs Ricky Davis and Rashard McCants will factor into my decision as to whether or not I purchase League Pass this fall.

Also, they should probably trade Ryan Gomes before he leaves as a free agent at the end of season after having seriously depressed Craig Smith's perceived value.

I'll Miss You, Mike Taylor

Iowa State dismissed my favorite 2006-07 Big 12 player from the team after, the AP says, "a series of arrests."

Taylor's combination of frequent turnovers and even more frequent missed shots was something to behold. We are unlikely to see again soon a player left on the court for 82% of his team's minutes while either missing a shot or turning the ball over once every 3.7 possessions.

That's possessions he's on the court, not possessions he uses.

Name	%Min	eFG%	FT%	PPWS	Pts	A	TO	BS	S	OR%	DR%
Taylor	82.0	45.5	67.7	0.98	29.4	8.3	10.3	0.2	2.0	2.3	11.9

That he drew votes for the All-Big 12 team only added to the pleasure his high volume ineffiency gave me. I don't know if Iowa State will be any better next year, but they'll be more generic.

Darko Is Free

With the Magic agreeing to sign Rashard Lewis to a max contract, Darko Milicic (who wasn't contacted by the Magic on the first day of free agency) won't be getting the $10 million a year he's looking for in Orlando.

John Denton of Florida Today, reports that only three other teams (Milwaukee, Minnesota, and Atlanta) are capable of offering Darko more than the MLE:

Milicic is a restricted free agent, meaning the Magic have the right to match any offer he receives. [Milicic’s agent, Marc] Cornstein said he received calls from "half the teams in the league," but only four of them -- Milwaukee, Minnesota, Atlanta and Orlando -- can offer him more than the mid-level exception ($5.5 million).

Any of those teams would be help themselves by acquiring a 22-year-old big man with some potential for improvement but none of those teams should want to make Darko Milicic their second-highest paid player. Milicic is young enough that he could still have a major contract offer the next time he hits free agency. I don't think he should forgo contributing to a good team for the MLE in the hopes that a bad team signs him to an expensive deal because they hope he will someday be worth it.

Note to John DeShazier

Mr. DeShazier of the Times-Picayune isn't enamored of Mr. Julian Wright:

Because unless Wright has a shooting stroke that belies the 12 points he averaged as a sophomore, it's hard to see how the Hornets helped themselves in the area they need the most help. He averaged 10.4 points in two college seasons, was 3-for-16 from 3-point range with a closer line than the one he'll see in the NBA, and averaged two assists in 71 games.

The franchise entered and exited the first round without a shooting guard.

It left Nick Young on the table in favor of Wright, 6 feet 8. Young also might not have been the perfect fit for a team that needs a veteran more than a youngster, but he certainly looked like a better fit for the vacant hole.

With all due respect, per game averages are for chumps.

Per possession, here's Young vs. Wright in 06-07:

Name	%Min	eFG%	FT%	PPWS	Pts	A	TO	BS	S	OR%	DR%
Young	81.3	57.4	78.6	1.23	31.5	2.4	4.4	0.5	1.3	4.7	11.2
Wright	68.3	55.3	61.3	1.14	25.2	4.5	5.0	2.7	3.0	11.0	20.0

Here's a list of things Nick Young is better at than Julian Wright:

1. Shooting outside of fifteen feet




Even then, Nick Young made less than a third of his three-point attempts over his first two years at USC. He improved last year but he was also, I suspect, very hot.

In addition to being two years younger than Nick Young, Julian Wright is already, at this moment, a better defender, a better rebounder, a better passer, and a better ball-handler.

In their college careers Julian Wright almost averaged twice as many assists per 100 possessions as Young which pretty much negates the five point per 100 possession scoring advantage Young has. Factoring in how inefficient Young was in scoring points in his first two years at USC (eFG% of 49.1 and 49.5, PPWS of 1.03 and 1.10), Wright was a much better offensive player through two college seasons.

Julian Wright is never going to make three-point shots in the NBA but he certainly has room to improve his jump shot and free throw shooting, thus narrowing the one advantage Nick Young has over him on the basketball court. Nick Young is never going to create easy shots for his teammates in the NBA. Nick Young is never going to be an above average rebounder in the NBA. Nick Young is never going to be a (positive) factor defensively in the NBA. Whatever other needs the Hornets have, drafting Julian Wright rather than Nick Young makes them a better, more talented team.

Draft Analysis

These will be quick but they must be done before Hoopinion goes off-line while moving.

Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford was the third best player in the draft. Acie Law IV is what he is but what he is is better than anybody the Hawks have played at the point in recent years. (Okay, he may not be better than Tyronn Lue, but I've been anti-Tyronn Lue for over a decade and I'm not letting his recent, productive offensive play disrupt tradition.) To those who would have drafted Conley I say, the Hawks will not be so good so soon that they forfeit the opportunity to upgrade the point guard position further in the next couple of drafts. (EDIT: Stats has reminded me that Atlanta's first round pick in '08 goes to Phoenix, so they'll have one chance in the draft. I'd recommend trading Marvin Williams for Jose Calderon.)

Boston Celtics: Getting rid of Wally Szczerbiak's contract? Plus. Replacing Delonte West with Gabe Pruitt? Minus. Trading the rights of the fifth draft pick for Ray Allen? Plus in '07-'08, possibly a plus in '08-'09, probably a minus by '09-'10. Adding Glen Davis to play somewhere behind Jefferson, Perkins, and Gomes? Probably irrelevant to everyone except Leon Powe.

Charlotte Bobcats: Jason Richardson is a much better basketball player than Brandan Wright. Granted, I use to think of Jason Richardson as I now think of Brandan Wright so I could be wrong about all this in three years. Jared Dudley should immediately push Adam Morrison down into an appropriate spot on the depth chart while he learns how to get a good shot off in the NBA. Jermareo Davidson is unlikely to be a factor in that frontcourt. I predict Europe.

Chicago Bulls: Noah was the fourth best player in the draft. His lack of scoring ability is massively overstated. He led the first Florida national championship team in scoring (33.5 Pts/100) and simply became more of a passer last season (A/100 up by over 25%). He outscored Horford significantly in their freshman and sophomore seasons and scored just 0.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than Horford this past season.

When Noah's out there in place of Ben Wallace, Chicago will be playing 5-on-5 offensively. Hell, when Aaron Gray's out there instead of Wallace, the same holds. Gray figures to be great value for a second-round pick. He can play 12 good minutes a night for the next 6-8 years. JamesOn Curry was hindered by Oklahoma State's terrible point guard the last two years, but I don't see him becoming an effective off guard in the NBA.

Cleveland Cavaliers: No pick. No trade.

Dallas Mavericks: If his body lets him, Fazekas will make use of his skills. It's certainly a no-lose situation for the Mavericks to use a second-round pick on him but small consolation for Adam Morrison and JJ Redick stealing all of his Player of the Year awards year before last.

By the time Seibutis and Rakovic are ready to come over I'll have established an uninformed opinion about them. It's too early for that now, though.

Denver Nuggets: No pick. No trade. (But cheers to Arseblog for the Satan Kroenke moniker.)

Detroit Pistons: Rodney Stuckey is probably better than Flip Murray, though the extra made shots might be offset by the extra turnovers in the short term. Arron Afflalo is more likely to make an immediate impact as a defender and spot-up shooter. Sammy Mejia was a hell of a lot better than Wilson Chandler at DePaul. Like Chandler, he doesn't necessarily have a position in the NBA but as he's smaller and less athletic than his former teammate, he'll get far fewer chances despite far greater basketball skills.

Golden State Warriors: The Warriors already have a bigger version of Brandan Wright in Biedrins. It's a good situation for Wright as he'd struggle in any sort of half-court context. Plus, playing alongside Al Harrington, he'll immediately look like a good reboudner. Belinelli certainly sounds like a good fit and a possible yin to Pietrus's yang. Stephane Lasme must also be thrilled to have joined an organization that has use for a skinny, 6-7 power forward who specializes in blocking shots.

Houston Rockets: Aaron Brooks is (I guess) an upgrade over Little John Lucas. This is the only organization that keeps a roster spot for an undersized, shoot-first, defend-never point guard that was slightly overrated in college. Carl Landry was quite underrated in college but he has both size and surgery history working against him. If I may resort to stereotype and hyperbole, Brad Newley is going to make Steve Novak look athletic.

Indiana Pacers: Stanko Barac. May we all still have our health when his NBA career comes to pass.

Los Angeles Clippers: If the Clippers try to replace Corey Maggette with Al Thornton, Mike Dunleavy might finally recognize how good Corey Maggette is. Thornton is going to be a scoring, offensive rebounding, undersized power forward on a good team. Even then you'll have to live with his poor defense and frequency of shot attempts. Personally, I'd like to see him on a really bad team where he'd have the offensive freedom he had at Florida State. He's not a guy you'd want to play with unless you suck and need someone to score for you.

Jared Jordan is perfect for the GM who thought about inviting Will Conroy or Aaron Miles to camp but didn't like the fact that either of those guys can keep an opposing point guard in front of him. There's not a great NBA tradition of unathletic point guards who can't shoot. Bully to Jordan if he can change the game.

Los Angeles Lakers: Crittenton could really benefit from the structure of the triangle offense. Poor decision-making (and Paul Hewitt's acceptance of turnovers) limited the accomplishments of his freshman year. He's very talented and could become quite good. Marc Gasol could fill a need if Bynum's traded. Sun Yue can certainly sell some jerseys and possibly backup Luke Walton. Without even seeing Sun Yue play, I give him a good chance at beating out Radmanovic for minutes.

Memphis Grizzlies: Taking Conley was a no-brainer. I always thought Kyle Lowry would be an excellent backup. Now they just have to get moved to the Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat: Daequan Cook is a lot more talented than Dorell (I always have to check as to whether it's one 'r' or one 'l') Wright but I don't know how well he fits in Miami. With the players they currently have under contract, I'd be tempted to give him Antoine Walker's minutes at the 3, but that has more to do with Antoine's inadequacies than Cook's readiness or ability to succeed at that position.

Milwaukee Bucks: Who knows if they'll get Yi to play for them or what they could get in a trade for him. The simple thing to do would have been to draft Noah or Brewer and get immediate contributions. I would have taken Zabian Dowdell ahead of Ramon Sessions in the second round.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Garnett can play but he'll probably be traded. McCants can play, if he's healthy. Foye and Brewer can play. Craig Smith is a nice complementary player. Chris Richard (assuming his success at Florida wasn't primarily due to his ability to play well with good players) might be their next best player depending on Ricky Davis's mood.

New Jersey Nets: I wonder how often I will write this off-season: "Sean Williams is not a good rebounder." In fact, his rebounding numbers last year were almost identical to those Marcus Williams posted. Sean Williams will block a lot of shots but in between shot blocking opportunities his attention wanders. He's a better dunker than Jason Collins but other than that their offensive games are similarly limited.

New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets certainly won't have to worry about their first-round draft pick duplicating any of Peja Stojakovic's skill set. Julian Wright will be immediately useful defensively and as a rebounder on both the offensive and defensive glass. He can finish in transition and is a good passer. If he simplifies his game off the dribble and improves his shooting he'll go down as a massive draft steal.

Haluska may fix any Chris Andersen jones the Hornets franchise has. He's extremely athletic, but at his size, I'm not sure that can make up for his relative lack of skill.

New York Knicks: Wilson Chandler doesn't know how to play basketball. Demetris Nichols can score, but nobody's going to let him touch the ball. Zach Randolph is better than Eddy Curry, but it's not like Eddy Curry does anything other than make a high percentage of his field goal attempts so he can't complement Randolph. Fred Jones might be an upgrade over Mardy Collins the next time Isiah feels the need for blood vengeance.

Orlando Magic: I like Reyshawn Terry a lot but I'm not sure I like him better than Trevor Ariza. Terry can shoot so he might get some minutes at the 2.

Philadelphia 76ers: Thaddeus Young did not show any interest in defending, rebounding, or scoring in the paint at Georgia Tech. He'll have to attempt at least two of those tasks to become a good NBA player. My guess is that he's content to be a jump shooter who gets the occasional dunk in transition or off an offensive rebound.

Jason Smith scored well at Colorado State, but he turned the ball over a hell of a lot. He could be little more than an upgrade over Shavlik Randolph. Derrick Byars has his uses, but are they different than those that Korver, Carney, and Bobby Jones offer? Herbert Hill could parlay his ability to play on both ends of the floor into serious minutes very quickly considering the alternatives.

Phoenix Suns: Alando Tucker can't shoot and he didn't rebound much at Wisconsin. He'll have to make the volume scorer to defensive specialist transition that Adrian Griffin eventually managed. DJ Strawberry could very well be the more productive NBA player.

Portland TrailBlazers: Putting Fernandez and Koponen aside for the moment as I'm ignorant, Portland acquired the best player in the draft, the point guard of the last two national champions (I'm skeptical that Taurean Green will be a useful NBA player, but I wouldn't be shocked if he figured out how to become one.), and picked up Josh McRoberts at a cost appropriate to his abilities. Now all Kevin Pritchard has to do is find a decent small forward.

They also got Channing Frye who figures to fit in nicely alongside either Oden or Aldridge. For the record, Frye is not very much like LaMarcus Aldridge at all. Aldridge rebounds, plays defense, and has a nascent post game.

Sacramento Kings: This may be the first time I'm glad they left Kansas City 22 years ago.

San Antonio Spurs: Splitter is worthy reward for running your organization really well. They're also buying low on Marcus Williams who had a fine freshman season at Arizona but was party to the implosion in Tucson last year. He could give them something like Stephen Jackson's contributions to the '03 NBA Champions.

Giorgis Printezis looked a lot like Eli Roth.

Seattle SuperSonics: I think you can afford to pay Wally Szczerbiak $25 million over the next two years for however many healthy games he can provide you when you're only paying $6 million for Kevin Durant and Jeff Green's combined production. Delonte West should provide a lot of good minutes in the backcourt and one has to assume that some of the current roster will be traded over the summer.

Toronto Raptors: No pick. No trade.

Utah Jazz: Morris Almond should be able to play alongside Ronnie Brewer while backing up Derek Fisher and Matt Harpring, thus preventing Gordan Giricek from playing 1200 minutes again next year. I deem that a success.

Washington Wizards: I fail to see how Nick Young complements Arenas, Butler, and Jamison any better than Jarvis Hayes did. Young is coming off a career year. He'll have to improve significantly to be that good again (relative to the level of competition, of course).

Dominic McGuire is an undersized, under-skilled four who doesn't contribute as much on the offensive glass as those types of guys generally have to in order to be useful. He's this draft's poor man's Stephane Lasme.