Sunday, May 06, 2012

Return On Investment: Kirk Hinrich

By Buddy Grizzard

In Game 3, Kirk Hinrich failed to score in 26 minutes and registered only 1 assist. Given that he was relatively productive in the first two games, and given the fact that the Hawks traded two first-round draft picks to obtain him, one might question the wisdom of sitting Hinrich for the 4th quarter and overtime. Although Willie Green made two huge baskets, for the series both he and Jannero Pargo are under-performing relative to Hinrich and to their own offensive numbers during the regular season.

During the regular season, both players had respectable shooting numbers against opponents who made this year's playoffs. However, both also had worse +/- numbers against playoff teams than against all opponents.


The +/- shown is aggregate vs. playoff-bound opponents for the season. I have previously noted that Green's aggregate -75 for the regular season is the worst on the team by a wide margin, as you can see at Jerry Stackhouse, at -4 for the season, is the only other Hawk with a negative aggregate +/- for 2011-12. As you can see from the numbers above, Green's +/- numbers are even worse against playoff-calibre foes. Pargo likewise goes into negative territory against playoff teams, as compared to the aggregate +40 he posted for the regular season.

Against the Celtics, Green and Pargo have failed to duplicate the offensive numbers they posted against playoff-bound opposition in the regular season. The Hawks have also been outscored by an average of over 6 points per game with either on the floor. The following is a comparison of Green, Pargo and Hinrich's numbers against the Celtics, including assist and turnover totals for the latter two.


Although Green outscores Hinrich on a per-minute basis, the +/- numbers simply can't be ignored. Green's numbers are predictably bad (indicating that his offensive production cannot make up for the defensive deficiencies that exist while he is on the floor). Meanwhile in 25 playoff minutes for Pargo, the Hawks have been outscored by more points than they were in 354 regular-season minutes against playoff teams.

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