Monday, January 17, 2005

Rebounding Thoughts and Numbers (Part One)

It's my contention that Kansas is a poor defensive rebounding team, a weakness emphasized by the quality of their defensive play until a shot is released. Opponents are shooting 40.9 eFG% (FG% adjusted for three-point shots (FGM+(1/2)3PTM)/FGA) from the floor against the Jayhawks. Those opponents then rebound 33.9% of their misses.

I contend that Kansas can improve on the 61 points they currently allow per game by limiting those offensive rebounds allowed and that it's the offensive rebounds allowed that prevent Kansas from winning games by more decisive margins. Obviously, limiting second chance points will decrease opponent's scoring, but more defensive rebounds would create more easy shots in transition for the Jayhawks. Also, as St. John's and NC State would corroborate, a certain desperation sets in when a team doesn't score.

Putting my rebounding hypothesis to a test of limited worth, I offer below eFG% and Offensive Rebounding% for and allowed for each Big 12 team this season. I have made no adjustments for quality of competition, but I'll list each team's Sagarin Strength of Schedule rank.

TEAMeFG%eFG% allOR%OR% allSoS Rank

Quick conclusions drawn:

1) Oklahoma State is a really good offensive team. They're shooting 6.2 percentage points higher than any other Big 12 team playing a top-70 schedule.
2) Missouri is a poor offensive team. They're shooting 2.8 percentage points lower than any other Big 12 team playing a top-70 schedule and are the only Big 12 team shooting worse than their opposition.
3) Kansas forces their opponents to shoot 3.7 percentage points lower than any other Big 12 team playing a top-70 schedule.
4) Kansas is in the bottom third of the league in Offensive Rebounding % and the middle of the pack in Offensive Rebounding % Allowed. In fact, of the five conference teams who have played a top-70 schedule, Kansas ranks third in both offensive rebounding categories.

Perhaps my aggravation with the defensive rebounding is motivated more by the volume of misses forced by Kansas than by the frequency of offensive rebounds allowed.

One last look.


OR% v. KUOR% v. others

The performance on the defensive boards in Boulder does look horrible compared to an average offensive rebounding night for Colorado. If Kansas had limited Colorado to their usual Offensive Rebounding %, the Buffaloes would have managed 4 fewer rebounds and scored approximately four fewer points (they had 20 second chance points on 21 offensive rebounds). Not a huge difference against such an inferior team, but it could be a factor later on in the season.

More numbers to follow.

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