Monday, November 08, 2010

November 8th Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (6-1) @ Orlando Magic (4-1)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

RADIO: The Hawks have moved to 97.9 on the FM dial this season.

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Marvin Williams, Mo Evans, and Pape Sy are out.

ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: Jameer Nelson is out.

BY THE NUMBERS

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (off)
92.3
1.149
53.7 28.8
27.5 15.8
ORL (def)
91.9 0.968 44.7
26.1
18.2
15.8

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (def)
93.1
1.063
48.7 26.1
27 13.7
ORL (off)
91.9 1.095
51.7
26.1
27.6
16.4

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -9, 193.5 o/u

PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic have won four of five to start the season (which levaes them one game back of the Hawks in the Southeast Division), with the lone loss coming at Miami. At home, the Magic have beaten Washington by 29, Minnesota by 42, and New Jersey by 15.

Jameer Nelson's absence might help the Hawks but it's prudent to remember that the Nate Robinson game on New Year's Day 2010 remained close enough for Nate Robinson to win it single-handedly because Mike Bibby had to be hidden from Chris Duhon.

Chris Duhon.

Switching Al Horford onto the opposing point guard won't be an option tonight.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Phoenix Suns 118 Atlanta Hawks 114

Recap

Gameflow

Hoopdata boxscore

Highlights

Alvin Gentry on Al Horford:
"I don’t think anyone in the league works harder than Horford does on either end of the floor. Whatever they signed him for, it’s a bargain. He’s a stud."
Neither Michael Cunningham:
Al has done a pretty good job when switched on Nash in the past. This time, though, Nash attacked the basket instead of settling for long, contested jumpers. Once he got Al thinking about that, he burned him with step-backs.
Nor Matt Moore were as impressed with Al Horford's defense on Steve Nash as I:
The Hawks managed to make it all the way to the end of the game without their penchant for switching killing them. Then Al Horford got switched onto Steve Nash. Swish. Channing Frye‘s in-the-block, “where did that come from” bucket was just the icing.
I should have found room to discuss the Frye basket that put Phoenix up 114-112 in the recap. It was a play Phoenix used regularly as an alternative to screen-and-roll. On the right block, Frye set a screen for Jason Richardson to run a curl. Mike Bibby had consistently gotten caught on that screen leading to open looks for Richardson. The Hawks switched that screen. Josh Smith cut off the passing lane between Nash and Richardson. That left Frye on the block with Bibby behind him. Nash hit Frye, Frye backed Bibby down with a dribble, made a quick move over his right shoulder, and hit a floating jump hook before any help arrived.

Not that help looked likely to arrive. Horford was on the opposite wing matched up against Turkoglu. Joe Johnson had Steve Nash at the top of the key. Jamal Crawford was next to Grant Hill behind the basket on the left baseline. Josh Smith was, perhaps, late in helping Bibby though a reluctance to leave Richardson all alone at the three-point line is a reasonable instinct even if, in this instance, it probably overrated Frye's ability to pass effectively out of the post.


Larry Drew was closer to my estimation of Horford's work against Nash:
"We have had some success with switching with Nash. Tonight he made some shots, which we knew chances are he was going to make some. We got a little complacent on a few of the Childress drives where that didn’t call for any help. We got sucked in and he kicked out to shooters. That’s failure to execute the gameplan."
There's a (time-permitting) future Bet It Hit Rim episode brewing on the subject of Horford's on-the-ball defense against Nash compared to his teammates' off-the-ball defense. Just from memory though, the Josh Childress and-1 with 4:41 left in the fourth quarter came as a result of Joe Johnson's lax defense of a Childress cut into the lane after Horford cut Nash off in the lane and forced him toward the right corner.

Larry Drew on switching against the Suns:
"The thing that hurt us as far as the switches, we couldn’t match up the way we wanted to match up if you don’t have perimeters when they go small. You have to go small along with them, especially when you play big and playing big is not effective. Tonight was a clear case how bad we needed a Marvin or a Mo so we could look at going a lot smaller and trying some other things defensively."
I'd argue that the cause-and-effect is backwards there, that starting Jason Collins is a willingness to play not effective in order to play big.

Drew:
"Tonight was a clear case how bad we needed a Marvin or a Mo so we could look at going a lot smaller and trying some other things defensively."
Or, you know, how clearly the Hawks needed a backup for Marvin Williams rather than four centers, two of whom can't play.

Joe Johnson:
"Down the stretch we couldn't get the key stops we normally get on defense."
On Friday, Neil Paine posted offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted for opposition on the Basketball-Reference.com blog. The Hawks ranked 18th in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency. This weekend, Wayne Winston did the same at Mathletics. He had the Hawks as better-than-average defensively, but below average overall on the young season.

The lesson: It's too early to define normal with any certainty for this team.

The presumption: Getting key stops would be evidence of significant defensive improvement over previous Hawks teams.


Josh Childress on receiving boos upon his return to Atlanta:
"I didn't expect it. I played here for four years. Every single night I played with maximum energy and effort. I don't think fans realized the business side of it. They don't know what went on in negotiations. If they felt they need to boo me, so what? I wish them well."
Childress was underrated (within the organization most of all) the entire time he played (and played well) for the Hawks and may not have received anything more than the qualifying offer from the Hawks when he was a restricted free agent. The reception he received was sadly fitting. Even in his current nine-fingered state, he'd be the fourth-best player on this Hawks team.

The Hawks are looking ahead to facing Orlando in Orlando tonight.

Larry Drew:
"We've got to go down there and be men on a mission. We are playing a team that has pretty much had its way with us the last few games. As I told the guys, it's time for us to go stand up and be counted. We have got to go down there and see what we are made of."
Joe Johnson:
"It's time for us to to go there and make a statement."
Josh Smith:
"We have just got to go out there carefree and take it to them. Their defense seems to bother us a little bit. We just let certain things get to us, and we can't let that happen."
Chief among those certain things: better players, an offensive game plan that maximizes their individual strengths, and a top-to-bottom organizational commitment to playing defense.

Sunday, November 07, 2010

Phoenix Suns 118 Atlanta Hawks 114

Boxscore

Team
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
PHX 95
1.242
62.3 25.9
28.9 16.6
ATL 94 1.213 58.4
20.5
35.1
15.5

The first Atlanta Hawks loss of the season and the 118 Phoenix points which caused it had more to do with limitations inherent in the roster's construction than any tactical decisions Larry Drew made. Granted, starting the game with Jason Collins and then the second half with Josh Powell on the court made about as much sense as the fans booing Josh Childress but I suspect both had approximately as much impact on the game's outcome.

Yes, both Jamal Crawford and Zaza Pachulia are better basketball players than either Collins or Powell but, over the past seven seasons, Phoenix have amply demonstrated both their general offensive competence and a particular ability to exploit whatever matchups favor them. Regardless of which Atlanta player replaced Marvin Williams in the lineup, the Hawks would still have no guard capable slowing Steve Nash, Hedo Turkoglu would still be a difficult matchup on the perimeter for either Josh Smith or Al Horford, Phoenix would never put a player on the court who could not exploit being guarded byb Mike Bibby, and, should everything else fail, Phoenix would just make a concerted effort to attack Jamal Crawford.

So, in addition to bemoaning the failure to stop the opposition, a failure which admittedly could bedevil this team over the course of its next 75 games (but a failure exaggerated by the absence of Williams and, to a lesser extent on this particular dy, Mo Evans) it's incumbent upon us also to praise the Atlanta offense for its ability, also made more difficult due to the absence of Williams, nearly to match Phoenix's offense point for point and to put the game's outcome in doubt inside the final 10 seconds.

Joe Johnson had an excellent game. His 34 points led the Hawks. His 6 assists were key. The 7 rebounds (3 offensive) he grabbed were crucial. His single turnover was indicative of the cornerstone of his offensive value. Yet, Joe Johnson was clearly not the team's best offensive player. Al Horford scored 4 fewer points on 11 fewer field goal attempts (and 1 more free throw attempt) and had 5 assists of his own despite (who knows how many) fewer touches than Johnson.

That Horford was the best component of a great team* offensive performance was not even the most impressive aspect of his individual performance nor the most striking aspect of the team's performance. You see, Larry Drew asked Al Horford to guard Steve Nash in the second half and Horford did a respectable job. Yes, Joe Johnson started most possessions standing at the top of the key, heels on the three-point line with Nash in front of him, but once Nash got a ball-screen and Phoenix initiated its half-court offense, Horford switched onto Nash and had responsibility for the opposing offense's catalyst, one of the finest offensive players this sport has ever produced, for the remainder of the possession.

*Well, four-man team. In addition to aforementioned Horford and Johnson, Josh Smith scored 19 points on 10 shots (7-8 from the free throw line) while earning 4 assists and Mike Bibby scored 12 points on 8 shots.

Horford didn't shut down Nash. Let's not be ridiculous. Horford slowed Nash. From 9 points (on 4-6 shooting) and 7 assists in the first half to 6 points (on 3-5 shooting) and 8 assists** in the pre-intentional fouling portion of the second half. Horford consistently stayed in front of Nash and forced him away from the paint. That Nash can hit the step-back jumper and find teammates on the move from any angle is to his eternal credit. That Horford forced Nash to display the full array of his gifts in order to remain effective is amazing. Despite Nash's second-half efficiency, despite the loss, Horford's defensive performance was spectacular. Late this afternoon, Larry Drew essentially confirmed the long-held position of your author: Al Horford, at six-feet, ten-inches and 245 pounds, is Atlanta's best perimeter defender.

**Three of which came on passes that resulted in Jason Richardson shooting a jump shot over Mike Bibby and had little to do with on-the-ball defense on Nash.

Horford is also the team's best post defender, best rebounder, most efficient scorer, and has been, per on-court possession so far this season, the team's most prolific scorer. Had a team a spare $123.7 million laying around, they could conceivably use it to build around a player like that.

In the world in which we live, though, it's a fair to wonder whether or not Horford will be allowed to play 10 minutes in the first half of tomorrow night's game. Such are, for good and for ill, these Atlanta Hawks.

November 7th Game Preview: Phoenix Suns (2-3) @ Atlanta Hawks (6-0)

TIP-OFF: 5pm (EST)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

RADIO: The Hawks have moved to 97.9 on the FM dial this season.

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Suns

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Marvin Williams, Mo Evans, and Pape Sy are out.

PHOENIX INJURY REPORT: Josh Childress is probable.

BY THE NUMBERS

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
PHX (off)
94.5
1.100
51.4 20.2
29.8 17.4
ATL (def)
92.8 1.033 46.6
25.9
26.8
13.3

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
PHX (def)
94.5
1.110
51.8 27
33.3 18.3
ATL (off)
92 1.138
52.8
30.2
26.1
15.9

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Valley of the Suns

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -6, 208.5 o/u

PREVIOUSLY...the Phoenix Suns beat the Memphis Grizzlies 123-118 in double-overtime in Phoenix on Friday night. The win snapped a two-game losing streak for the Suns. The Suns split their first two road games, losing 106-92 in Portland and winning 110-94 in Utah.

Former Hawk Josh Childress has failed to receive much playing time early in the season for the wing-heavy Suns. Former Hawk fan cause celebre Garrett Siler is now an NBA veteran. Siler is 0-1 from the floor, 1-2 from the line, has 2 rebounds, 2 blocks, 5 turnovers, and 3 personal fouls in 17 minutes.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Saturday, November 06, 2010

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 113 Minnesota Timberwolves 103

Recap

Gameflow

Hoopdata boxscore

Highlights

A delightful Larry Drew quote which demonstrates a self-possession his predecessor lacked:
"If the effort isn't there, I don't care how good the gameplan is. For most part we have done a good job with the gameplan and with effort and energy defensively. Our problem has been the end result when that shot has gone up, that second effort of getting your bodies on people to get the board. That's where the last game we struggled."
As nice as it is to watch the offense, an offense, function, let's not overlook the often unseen power of good communication between coach and players.

Joe Johnson:
"I don’t know if we’ve played any playoff teams but a win is a win."
Al Horford:
"Last year we gave up games like this to teams that didn’t make the playoffs. We are heading in the right direction, and it’s good to see."
Two statements equally true.

Michael Cunningham updates Marvin Williams's injury:
L.D. said Marvin would be out “at least a week” with the bone bruise.
Cunningham on Jamal Crawford:
By my count, this makes three games where the Hawks would have lost without Jamal doing his thing. He scored 10 of Atlanta’s 30 points in the second quarter and 10 of their 30 in the fourth. He was even energetic while challenging shots. The six turnovers against one assist were the only blemishes.
Count Darko Milicic among those of us unimpressed with Jason Collins's defense:
"Looking awful on the court on offense. Disgusts myself."

Friday, November 05, 2010

Atlanta Hawks 113 Minnesota Timberwolves 103

Boxscore

Team
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 98
1.153
56.8 25.9
23.5 15.3
MINN 100 1.03 46.5
11.1
31.4
11

It's a toss-up as to which is a worse idea: looking for reasons not to play Al Horford or looking for reasons to play Jason Collins. Neither idea itself nor the two working in concert proved to be as bad as the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight but I suspect that Larry Drew will have to treat frontcourt minutes more preciously as the competition improves next week or suffer some consequences.

Somehow, an injury to his starting small forward caused Drew to give his third-string center more first half minutes and either his first- or second-string center. Heck, with Marvin Williams and Mo Evans injured and Al Horford having picked up (GASP!) two personal fouls before halftime, Jordan Crawford played more minutes in the first half than did Horford.

It didn't much matter, even though Minnesota closed out the first half on a 14-5 run to get within five at halftime, Atlanta restored their lead with a 21-11 start to the second half. Josh Smith (20 points on 13 shots, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks, 2 steals, and 0 turnovers) was, by himself, far too good for the Hawks ever to lose this game. And he had help. Al Horford posted another double-double (14 and 12, plus 3 assists) and thoroughly dominated the great Kevin Love despite barely being allowed to play half the game, Mike Bibby continued (for a half, at least) to knock down open shots, Jamal Crawford (22 points on 14 shots, and, what's this? It's SIX rebounds.) made a welcome return* to active duty, and Josh Powell (5-6 from the floor for 10 points) knocked down almost all of the jump shots Minnesota were willing to let him take.

*Crawford the Elder and Jeff Teague (5 assists) started to show some chemistry while leading the second unit during the first half.

It's not just that Collins is massively inferior to Al Horford. It's that Collins is clearly inferior to Zaza Pachulia and that Josh Powell would be a preferable option to receive minutes made available by injury. It's curious that Drew would turn so readily to Collins as Collins does none of things Drew wants from the team. Collins is more obstacle* than defender, can't rebound, and can't run. He doesn't do anything that someone else on the roster could do better to help the team win. Perversely, it's in not doing anything that Collins remains blameless for his inadequacies. Nothing is expected of him, thus his failure to be productive is not perceived as failure at all. At least when his teammates are so much better than the opposition.

Put another way...at least until he plays for the Hawks against Orlando on Monday.

*Granted, you don't need to be much more than an obstacle to defend Darko Milicic adequately in the post. Though, it should be noted that Milicic made both his baskets, grabbed two of his three offensive rebounds, and played some effective help defense (two of his three blocks also came) when matched up against Collins.

November 5th Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (5-0) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (1-4)

TIP-OFF: 8pm (EDT)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

RADIO: The Hawks have moved to 97.9 on the FM dial this season.

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Timberwolves

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Marvin Williams, Mo Evans, and Pape Sy are out. Jamal Crawford is a game-time decision but expected to play.

MINNESOTA INJURY REPORT: Jonny Flynn and Martell Webster are out. Michael Beasley is questionable.

BY THE NUMBERS

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (off)
90.8
1.135
52 31.2
26.6 16.1
MINN (def)
100.7 1.13 56.4
35.1
28.2
14.8

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (def)
91.4
1.034
46.6 29.2
25.7 13.8
MINN (off)
100.7 0.963
48
28.2
30.5
19.7

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: A Wolf Among Wolves, Howlin' T-Wolf, Canis Hoopus

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -7, 205 o/u

PREVIOUSLY...the Minnesota Timberwolves lost their third straight game (all on the road) 128-86 in Orlando. All three of those road losses came by at least 20 points. The Timberwolves were far more successful in their two home games, losing 117-116 on opening night against Sacramento and beating the Bucks 96-85 last Friday.

The Timberwolves lead the NBA in possessions per game but have the league's least efficient offense on the young season.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Hawks Likely To Start Big Lineup in Minnesota

Michael Cunningham reports that Marvin Williams is scheduled for an MRI on his right knee and won't fly to Minnesota for tomorrow night's game. With Mo Evans still out following his knee surgery, who will start in the frontcourt?

Larry Drew speaks:
"I am looking at different things. I am looking at Minnesota and because they have such a big lineup with Beasley, Milicic and Love, I may have to go bigger at the three. If Jamal is at the two, and Joe is at the three, then Joe has to guard Beasley, and I don’t want that."
Adamant as I am that Josh Smith can't play small forward for any length of time, I'm nearly as adamant that Michael Beasley is less effective the farther he strays from the bucket. Anyone who remembers Beasley's inability* to use the threat of his jump shot to prey on Josh Smith's on-the-ball defensive weaknesses in the first round of the 2008-09 NBA Playoffs cannot but feel sanguine about the resumption of that matchup.

*Honest question: Is Michael Beasley now the poor man's JJ Hickson?

That Minnesota's playing Beasley out of position in order to squeeze Darko Milicic, who is less good at basketball than Zaza Pachulia, into the starting lineup only makes things easier for Larry Drew on Friday night. Furthermore, none of Wesley Johnson, Corey Brewer, or Lazar Hayward should especially trouble Joe Johnson when he's forced to play the 3.

Though, should Williams miss any significant time, I've included the contact information for a decent use of the 15th roster spot in this post as a public service. Because, when something like this gets written by Ian Thomsen on SI.com about Josh Smith's shot selection, I'm drunk on belief in my voice:
Smith can be unruly -- he is, once again, shooting indiscriminately from the perimeter when he ought to be controlling the paint -- so maybe the Hawks will consider trading his upside at age 24 for a more reliable star who can help them in the playoffs. But he also has a 15 percent trade kicker that complicates any deal for him, and then there is the multipronged talent that he displayed Wednesday against the Pistons (22 points on 12 shots, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks).

I could see them moving Smith for basketball reasons, but not for financial reasons -- not yet anyway.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 94 Detroit Pistons 85

Recap

Gameflow

Hoopdata boxscore

Highlights

Al Horford:
"We were a little sluggish. I think everybody was feeling tired from the night before. I think everybody just had to push through to get this win."
Larry Drew:
"We’re not going to go out and blow out a lot of people. We have to learn how to win at the end. Sometimes it’s going to be pretty, sometimes it’s going to be ugly but we have to win in those types of situations."
Which is the primary cause for concern. The Hawks haven't been quite as good as their record indicates despite playing five teams that have combined to go 5-12 when not playing the Hawks.

On the other hand, as Joe Johnson put it:
"We have not yet played our best basketball, and we're still winning."
A secondary (and hopefully short-term) cause for concern: Marvin Williams's knee. Michael Cunningham reports that the Hawks are calling it a sprain and already listing him as questionable for Friday's game in Minnesota.

Williams:
"I’ve already got a lot of treatment. I will just go home and kick my feet up and see how it feels in the morning."
The Hawks could play that game with four centers, three shooting guards (Jamal Crawford hopes to play), and no small forwards on the (shortened) active roster. If you had the second week of the season in your When Does Shoddy Roster Construction Complicate Larry Drew's Job pool, congratulations.

Drew got on the guards for not contributing on the defensive glass:
"We didn’t get bodies on people. It’s not just our big guys, our guards have got to dig out long rebounds."
Before you know it the guards might be held accountable for their defensive performance, too.

Michael Cunningham was generally on fire in his post-game blog. To wit:
Maybe [Joe Johnson]’s just tired after playing 42 minutes at Cleveland and then logging 42 again tonight. It’s apparent L.D. is going to ride him in situations like this and tell him to keep shooting, but the game changed when Al and Smoove started touching the ball more late.
and
Good thing for the Hawks Villanueva likes to jack up bad shots. Josh Powell might have matched him brick for brick if he had played more than 13 minutes.
Locker room talk, baby.

More criticism for Charlie Villanueva's performance from Justin Rogers at MLive.com:
On the defensive end, the Hawks attacked Charlie Villanueva. Immediately after Prince's three-pointer, Zaza Pachulia posted him up and converted for an easy bucket. After Villanueva missed a three on the ensuing possession, he failed to stop Horford on the fast break going the other way. Next possession, Horford posted up and scored over . Two possessions later, Smith beat him on the fast break. Next possession, he ended up defending Joe Johnson on the perimeter. Johnson drove, drew contact and converted the basket and free throw.

That's 11 point in three and a half minutes. Of course you wouldn't know it by Kuester's post-game comments.

"Charlie Villanueva is playing outstanding basketball right now," he said.

I don't know, maybe it's was the effort Villanueva put into missing all five of his three-point attempts.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Atlanta Hawks 94 Detroit Pistons 85

Boxscore

Team
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
DET 86
0.988
41.7 11.1
34.7 9.3
ATL 85 1.106 56
28.4
12.5
16.5

Despite poor shooting and an unresponsive starting point guard, Detroit stayed in the game on the strength of their offensive rebounding. To be fair, they were strong on the offensive glass, in part, because John Kuester chose to play bigger players in Rodney Stuckey's stead and several of the smaller Hawks couldn't compete on the glass. As a team, the Hawks grabbed just 32 of a possible 49 defensive rebounds and Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams accounted for 25 of those 32 defensive rebounds.

With 6:33 left in the game and Detroit leading 78-76, Greg Monroe, adjudged to have been pushed by Al Horford, fell from a significant height onto Marvin Williams. Williams crumpled, peeled himself off the floor, then nearly crumpled again while leaving the floor. Jamal Crawford missed the entire game with turf toe, leaving Larry Drew short of his preferred options to finish the game on the court. Drew replaced Williams with Zaza Pachulia and that made all the difference.

On the first possession following Pachulia's entrance, Tayshaun Prince made a three-pointer to extend the Piston lead to five. On Detroit's next ten possessions, they made one field goal, missed eight field goals, grabbed just one defensive rebound, and turned the ball over three times. The Hawks converted those turnovers, plus the Detroit misses they rebounded, into six made baskets (4 of them assisted), 13 points, and an eight-point lead with 33 seconds left.

Though they got killed on the defensive glass overall, the Hawks were devastating on the relatively rare occasions they grabbed a defensive board. Atlanta scored 28 fast break points despite Detroit committing just 8 turnovers. This was both the downside of Kuester's big, crash-the-glass lineups for the Pistons and an object lesson in how important defensive rebounding is to the success of the Atlanta Hawks. Even a well-designed and sharply executed half-court offense can't compete with the quality of shot created when Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams get out in transition.

Smith's involvement in the decisive 13-2 capped an especially productive game in a reassuring fashion. The Hawks might have lost contact with Pistons were it not for the four jump shots (including one three-pointer) he made in five attempts through the first three-and-a-half quarters. Vital as those points were tonight, the Hawks can't expect the manner of their vitality to be replicated in the future. In the final six minutes, Smith eschewed the offensive perimeter, grabbed a couple of defensive rebounds, twice found Al Horford (once for a transition layup, once for a dunk), and scored twice at the rim himself (off of nice passes from Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby). Fool's gold helped give the Hawks a chance to win. The color made the win a reality.

Other key factors in securing the win...
  • Al Horford taking advantage of Ben Wallace's absence to score 10 of his 18 points in the final 13:47 of the game.
  • Larry Drew showing an earlier hook for the second unit in the fourth quarter as the Pistons opened the period on an 8-2 run.
  • Joe Johnson mitigating another poor shooting night (14 points on 15 shots plus 2 free throw attempts) with 8 more assists and some decent before-the-shot defense against bigger players.
Further items of interest...
  • Mike Bibby picked up two personal fouls in the first quarter. He played 8 minutes and 41 seconds of the second quarter.
  • Jordan Crawford saw the first real action of his NBA career. It was a mixed bag. He knocked down a long jumper for his first professional bucket within 90 seconds of entering the game and ran a couple of nice side screen-and-roll plays with Pachulia in the second half. Crawford also forced both a three-point shot and a pass into traffic when discretion would have served him better than aggression.

November 3rd Game Preview: Detroit Pistons (0-4) @ Atlanta Hawks (4-0)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EDT)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

RADIO: The Hawks have moved to 97.9 on the FM dial this season.

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Pistons

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Mo Evans and Pape Sy are out.

DETROIT INJURY REPORT: Rip Hamilton and Tracy McGrady are questionable. Will Bynum, Jonas Jerebko, Chris Wilcox, and Terrico White are out.

BY THE NUMBERS

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
DET (off)
91.9
1.033
47.1 21.3
27.4 13.1
ATL (def)
92.8 1.045 48
32.7
23.1
14.8

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
DET (def)
91.9
1.146
48.5 35.2
30.9 16
ATL (off)
92.3 1.142
51.1
31.7
28.8
16

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Piston Powered, Need4Sheed, Detroit Bad Boys

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -10.5, 195.5 o/u

PREVIOUSLY...the Detroit Pistons lost their fourth straight game last night, 109-86 at home against the Boston Celtics. Take your pick as to the worst thing to come out of last night's game, either Charlie Villanueva's claims as to what Kevin Garnett called him or this pair of quotes from John Kuester:
"We have to collectively someway or somehow find another voice besides my own that is going to lead us."
and Tayshaun Prince:
"He's right, but at the same time it goes both ways. We can sit here and continue to get on each other and be vocal, but like I said, the right thing has got to come from him as well as us. It goes both ways. He says we got to be more vocal, he has to do some things better, too. Obviously, we're 0-4 so it ain't just the team."
Good times.

(HT: ProBasketballTalk)

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Detroit Free Press: Ellis: Pistons Would Seriously Consider Josh Smith for Rip Hamilton Trade

A status update on the unreality of Josh Smith being traded...

Vince Ellis of The Detroit Free Press gets paid for writing something that would get mocked on a message board:
The Pistons like Smith -- front office personnel speak openly of getting players who can play above the rim and Smith fits the bill. But it's doubtful they will be able to make any major financial commitments with the team's sale still pending. When the sale becomes official, the Pistons would seriously consider a Hamilton-for-Smith swap as it appears Hamilton needs a change of scenery.
Detroit would also presumably seriously consider trading Rip Hamilton for Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, or any other player rumored to be on the block who is both much younger and much better than Hamilton, who is also hurt, having missed last night's Pistons loss and is questionable for tonight's game.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 100 Cleveland Cavaliers 88

Recap

Gameflow

Hoopdata boxscore

Highlights

For one night, forget everything you know about high-percentage shots:

TeamFGA (at rim)eFG%FGA (16-23')eFG%3PTAeFG%
ATL2544.02259.11744.2
CLE2128.620701744.2

One thing that differentiated those 16-to-23' two-point jumpers from those the Hawks have hoisted in seasons past? Nine of the thirteen made field goals from that range were assisted. Low-percentage shots that arise from ball and player movement are probably not quite as low-percentage as the typical low-percentage shot.

Larry Drew:
"Our guys are starting to buy into it and they are really playing together and they are playing very unselfish. If they continue to do that, they will spread the wealth among the points. The feel of it right now that I am getting from the players is they are really starting to feel good about themselves and what we are doing."
Al Horford:
"Last year this would have been a game we let slip away. We feel confident. We are going to keep working to get better. We still have a ways to go."
Drew:
"Teams are going to make runs. We held our composure. It's a sign we are growing up. A year or two ago we would have caved in."
Marvin Williams:
"Last game I wasn’t aggressive at all, and it hurts my team when I’m not very aggressive. I really wanted to come out and establish myself early."
Drew on Williams:
"I have got to put him in better situations. I want him to be more offensive-minded. With that being said, I don’t want him forcing things. I thought tonight he did a great job. When I ran plays for him he was aggressive. When ran plays for someone else, he waited until the ball rotated around to him and he knocked the shot down. But I’ve got to get him more touches."
The Human Highlight Blog on Josh Smith's defense:
Smith was brutal defensively, as he tried to rely on his superior athleticism to defend JJ Hickson. The result? 11-17, 31 points and a career high for Hickson.
Josh Smith saw it somewhat differently:
"I don’t mean to pat myself on the back, I don’t hang my head because I’m not making shots. I have so many [other] attributes to be able to help my team. I did that on the defensive and offensive boards. I was able to deflect some shots, and whenever you deflect shots early it makes teams think about coming in there."
From Cavs: the Blog, John Krolik on Josh Smith:
Josh Smith made two long jumpers in the fourth quarter, which ranks just below a light fixture falling on a point guard on the bad omen scale.
And Krolik on Al Horford:
Boy, does Horford look good. He seems to be comfortable with that 15-footer but not in love with it, which is such a big deal for young big men.
Byron Scott:
"We played against a very good basketball team that made some shots."
The heretofore hapless Detroit Pistons get next crack at the Hawks tonight in Philips Arena.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Atlanta Hawks 100 Cleveland Cavaliers 88

Boxscore

Team
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 89
1.124
47 25
29.2 7.9
CLE 87 1.011 46.6
25.7
25.6
16.1

Though the game was as close as four points with less than four minutes left, the final score is a fair representation of the contest.The Hawks started and finished strong, made a bunch of bad shots, then missed a bunch of good shots during the middle of the game before taking advantage of the willingness of Mo Williams, Boobie Gibson, and Anthony Parker to keep the ball away from JJ Hickson on several fourth quarter possessions.

Unlike in the 99-95 win over Washington on Saturday night, Joe Johnson was not guilty of similar possession gluttony. Yes, he finished with just 15 points on 21 shots but 11 of those 21 shots came inside the paint and another 6 were three-point attempts. Johnson simply failed to convert a typical percentage from either high-percentage location. He also, typically, struggled to get to the free throw line, earning but two trips to the charity stripe. Three of Johnson's nine assists came in the final 5:33 as the Hawks generally eschewed isolation sets in favor of player and ball movement down the stretch.

As in the Washington game, Johnson had lots of (needed) offensive help from his teammates. Marvin Williams led the way, scoring 22 points on 12 shots from all areas of the floor. Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford combined for 31 points on 17 shots and turned the ball over just once between them (Crawford was the guilty party) in 49 minutes of playing time.

Al Horford sat for the final 94 seconds of the first half after picking up his second foul (Jason Collins came off the bench for a trillion) and he and Josh Smith again watched Zaza Pachulia and Josh Powell from the bench for the first half of the fourth quarter but Horford squeezed 16 points, 12 rebounds (half of them offensive), and 4 assists into just under 31 minutes of playing time. Horford also provided a couple of quality defensive possessions on JJ Hickson late in the game to keep things relatively comfortable for the Hawks.

Larry Drew switched Horford onto Hickson because the 31 points Hickson scored were far more indicative of Josh Smith's defensive performance than Smith's five blocked shots and two steals. Smith added five more jump shots (out of eleven field goal attempts) and missed both of his free throw attempts. As always, Smith deeply intertwines the good with the bad. Thus his 11 rebounds and 4 assists deserve mention.

Outside of Crawford the bench was not especially productive but neither did they do anything to shake the faith Drew has shown in the second unit thus far. It remains to be seen if that faith will continue to be as absolute as the level of competition rises but it certainly hasn't hurt the Hawks in any meaningful way through four games. Which is the most encouraging thing about the 4-0 start: the Hawks aren't playing remarkable basketball, simply good basketball at a, one hopes, sustainable level.

Election Night Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (3-0) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EDT)

TELEVISION
: SportSouth

RADIO: The Hawks have moved to 97.9 on the FM dial this season.

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Cavs

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: Mo Evans and Pape Sy are out.

CLEVELAND INJURY REPORT: Mo Williams is listed as questionable but is expected to come off the bench tonight. Antawn Jamison is a game-time decision.

BY THE NUMBERS

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (off)
93.3
1.149
52.6 32
28.6 18.6
CLE (def)
92 1.069 52.8
27.3
26.4
19.5

2010-11
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL (def)
94.7
1.056
48.4 34.2
22.3 14.4
CLE (off)
92 1.017
48
18.4
21.4
16.8

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Cavs: The Blog

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
: Atlanta -3.5, 190.5 o/u

PREVIOUSLY...the Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a 1-2 start, beating the Celtics in Cleveland to open the season before losing at Toronto and, most recently, at home to Sacramento on Saturday.

JJ Hickson and Boobie Gibson have led the Cavalier offense in the early going with Antawn Jamison shooting just 38.6 eFG% thus far and Ramon Sessions struggling (42.1 eFG%, more turnovers than assists) in the absence of Mo Williams.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

NBA.com: Smith: [Josh] Smith in the Trade Mix?

Sekou Smith agrees that it would be folly for the Atlanta Hawks to trade Josh Smith barring exceptional circumstances:
If the Hawks didn’t move Smith in a rumored deal for Amar’e Stoudemire (it came up a couple of years ago and again last season around the trade deadline, when Stoudemire was the hottest name in the game), I can’t see any reasonable explanation for trying to move him now.

This Hawks’ team has yet to plateau, so trading anyone off this roster right now (even Crawford) makes little sense to us. Are they ready to challenge for a title right now? No. But Sund would be taking a huge gamble trying to find the right piece by the trade deadline by moving a piece as integral as Smith is to this team.

Now we’re not crazy. If you can leverage Smith for someone like Chris Paul or even Carmelo Anthony, then you have to explore your options. You never say never.

But unless you are talking about acquiring a player of that caliber in a package, this is a waste of time.

Someone has to go, but it needs to be someone other than Smith.

A Brief Look at the Sustainability of a Hot Start

The Atlanta Hawks are 3-0. Their opponents are 2-3 when not playing the Hawks. It's far too early to draw conclusions about how good this team is but let's try and form an educated opinion about how sustainable (for good and for ill) the team's performance over the first three games is.

The 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks through three games vs. the 2009-10 Atlanta Hawks.

Offense:

SeasonOff EffeFG%FT RateOR%TO%
2010-11114.952.634.228.618.6
2009-10113.450.621.328.213.3

The 2010-11 Hawks have been slightly more efficient than even the extremely efficient (efficiency valid during the regular season only) 2009-10 Hawks. The sharp increase in turnovers (which may abate as the team settles into the running the new offense) has not been as large a factor as the combination of improved shooting from the field and more frequent trips to the free throw line.

It should be noted that the Hawks will not shoot 85.9% from the free throw line for the entire season. A return to normalcy there will impact both the team's free throw rate and offensive efficiency.

In related news, the Hawks are almost uniformly outperforming their career TS% early this season and a reversion to something closer to their career averages should be expected no matter how much Larry Drew is aiding the quality of looks from the field or making it easier for players to get to the free throw line.

NameTS% CareerTS% 2010-11
Evans54.3116.7
Pachulia53.874.0
Bibby53.671.4
Horford57.067.8
Johnson52.856.7
Crawford52.456.5
Smith51.853.1
Williams53.752.3
Teague45.947.2
Powell48.244.4

It should be noted that, though Joe Johnson is not over-performing in terms of scoring efficiency to the same degree as some of his teammates thus far, his usage rate through three games is over 30% which makes even a relatively small improvement in efficiency extremely valuable.

Defense:

SeasonDef EffeFG%FT RateOR%TO%
2010-11105.648.43222.314.4
2009-10108.349.72827.215.4

The early returns on not switching every screen are much as expected: improved defensive rebounding and more fouling. Of course, given the 2010-11 sample size, the improved defensive rebounding may just be a function of Marc Gasol missing the game in Memphis.

It would be a great benefit to the team should the defensive rebounding improvement prove genuine both as a way to keep opponents from scoring and to attack offensively. The Hawks have, at Larry Drew's encouragement, increased the pace of play so far this season.

SeasonPace
2010-1194
2009-1088.8

Some of that increase is due to the increase in turnovers committed but some, at least to these eyes, is due to effective defensive rebounding partnered with a commitment to attacking offensively off of opponents' misses.

It should also be noted that, through three games of the 2009-10 season, the Hawks averaged 97.7 possessions per game.

The Hawks are not doing anything (outside of the rate at which they convert their free throw attempts) outrageous in achieving their early success and there are clearly areas for plausible improvement despite the quick start. Said start may yet to prove to have quite a bit to do with playing the Grizzlies, 76ers, and Wizards but, as of now, there's no obvious reason to discount the general competence of the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks.

Monday, November 01, 2010

The Point Forward: Lowe: Hawks Follow Mistake With Good Deal

Zach Lowe commends the Atlanta Hawks for extending Al Horford but, quite reasonably, ponders what the team could do to improve:
Al Horford is off the list of potential 2011 free agents. The 24-year-old big man agreed to a five-year, $60 million extension with the Hawks on Monday, earning him the same money as Chicago’s Joakim Noah, about the same as teammate Josh Smith and a tad more than some other quality bigs, including Andrea Bargnani. And the Hawks have managed to lock up Horford, just 24, without overpaying him. With an average annual salary of $12 million, Horford will make less than fellow bigs David Lee, LaMarcus Aldridge and Emeka Okafor.

It’s a fair deal. Unfortunately, like everything else the Hawks do for the next half-decade, it must be viewed in the context of the disastrous $124 million contract they gave 29-year-old (!) Joe Johnson just a few months ago. With Horford locked up, the Hawks, as constituted now, won’t have any significant cap room until after the 2013-2014 season. The cap this season is nearly $58 million, and though a significant salary rollback in the new collective bargaining agreement might give the Hawks a little bit of relief next season, it’s hard to envision a rollback large enough to change their cap situation in any major way.

...

So, essentially, this is the team. And it’s a good team — one capable of winning 50 games every season, and one that should see Smith and Horford get better over the next few seasons. The Hawks are counting on that sort of internal improvement to make them a title contender and not just a solid playoff team. They’ll need Marvin Williams, under contract through 2013-14, to find a more varied offensive game even as he continues to lose minutes this season to Jamal Crawford. They’ll need Jeff Teague to be a competent NBA starting point guard next season. And they’ll need to be creative with the draft and the mid-level exception, which they did not use last summer.

The Hawks’ biggest fault was re-signing Johnson to a max deal. The argument that “we had to sign Johnson or lose him for nothing” just doesn’t hold water. Teams never have to do anything. There is always an option, even if that option is losing Johnson for nothing, or maybe just a trade exception and a future first-round pick. Because those options are better than the alternative: crippling your team’s cap situation for a half-decade.

TrueHoop: Ford: Hawks' Next Move?

Chad Ford on what less than zero cap space through at least 2013 might mean for the Atlanta Hawks:
Several GMs believe the Hawks won't be able to keep Johnson ($18.5 million in 2011-12), Josh Smith ($12.5 million in 2011-12), Marvin Williams ($8 million in 2011-12) and Horford ($10 million in 2011-12) together past this season for financial reasons.

While Horford's new salary won't push the Hawks into the luxury tax, it will put them very close. The move means they won't be able to afford to re-sign Jamal Crawford, or replace him with a similar salaried player next season, without incurring the tax.

That situation is already leading to speculation that GM Rick Sund may be forced to put Smith on the market soon. Sund briefly flirted with trading Smith last summer, before pulling back. While no one is claiming he's been made available yet, a number of GMs around the league expect his name to be in the mix by the February trade deadline.

Williams would be the Hawks' first choice to move, but he didn't get a lot of bites when he was available this summer. That could push them to see what they can get for Smith.

A number of teams including the Knicks, Nets, Pistons, and Suns have shown interest in the high-flying forward in the past. It will be interesting to see if talks heat up as we get closer to February.
Obviously, trading Josh Smith because you gave Joe Johnson (and, to a lesser extent, Marvin Williams or Mike Bibby) a ridiculous contract makes no sense. Perhaps Smith's recalcitrant behavior is incurable. Then again, investing in a proven NBA coach, himself hypothetically a bit of a disciplinarian, might have been a cost effective manner of maximizing the team's investment in the only player on the roster who could possibly become a franchise player.

ShamSports is back online now so I can, as close to officially as possible, note the 2011-12 salary commitment of the Atlanta Hawks (assuming Horford's deal is for $12 million per year) as $65.245 million for eight players and the 2012-13 commitment as $62.77 million for seven players.

That latter number should put Mike Bibby's expiring contract in perspective.

In news related to filling out a bench cheaply and possibly even productively, Nick Fazekas will be the first pick on the D-League Draft tonight. Click through and you'll see that I did not get a mention in (friend of the blog) Rob Mahoney's piece. There is much work yet to be done.

AJC.com: Cunningham: Hawks, Horford Agree to 5-year, $60 Million Contract Extension

Michael Cunningham reports that the Atlanta Hawks have agreed to a 5-year, $60 million contract extension with Al Horford:
Atlanta’s All-Star center and his agent, Arn Tellem, met with the team this afternoon finalize the deal, which also is expected to include performance incentives. The sides had until the end of business today to reach an agreement or Horford would have become a restricted free agent next summer.

“It happened like I’ve been predicting–down to the wire,” Horford said today after practice. “When we finally kind of agreed on everything, I was super excited.”

Horford’s deal is similar to the contract extension signed by Bulls center Joakim Noah, whom he teamed with to win two NCAA championships at the University of Florida. The Hawks selected Horford with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2007 draft while Noah was picked No. 9 by Chicago.

The Hawks and Tellem opened negotiations at the start of training camp but there was little movement in talks as recently as two weeks ago. With the deadline approaching, the two sides met this weekend and worked out a deal.

“From the moment he arrived in Atlanta, Al has been a large part of our success,” Hawks GM Rick Sund said in a statement released by the team. “The winning tradition he brought to the franchise as a rookie out of Florida has extended to three consecutive playoff seasons in a Hawks uniform. In addition, he was deservedly recognized as an All-Star last year, and we certainly look forward to his continued development as we move forward.”

Horford was eligible for an extension for as many as five years and as much as $82 million under the terms of the current collective bargaining agreement, which expires in June. The final terms of the extension could possibly be altered when the league and players agree to a new CBA but Horford would have a contract that must be honored.

Horford has said all along he hoped to sign an extension because he likes Atlanta and his teammates and believes the team is headed in the right direction.

“It’s great to be able to get it done and have peace of mind,” Horford said. “It makes me able to come out and just focus on basketball, which is my priority to begin with. So I’m happy about that part.”
The Hawks now have eight players under contract for next season. Depending on the details of Horford's extension, the money due those eight players will be somewhere north of $60 million. The 2010-11 salary cap is $58.044 million.