Thursday, February 23, 2006

Preview: Kansas at Texas, Part One

I've got too many tables for a single preview post, so here's the breakdown:

Part One: Team stats
Part Two: Backcourts
Part Three: Rush v. Tucker
Part Four: Frontcourts
Part Five: Prediction

Stats glossary

Team Stats

Kansas has almost closed the efficiency gap with Texas. The Jayhawks are more reliant
on their defense while the Longhorns have the best offense in the conference by a considerable margin.

TeamPPPOpp PPPDiff

There’s not a lot of difference between the two teams in terms of field goal offense and defense or rebounding.

KU Off53.228.639.523.2
UT Def44.827.229.820.5

Texas has more of the possessions in their games end with a shot attempt than does Kansas. The Jayhawks and their opponents are more likely to turn the ball over.

KU Def43.430.429.723.8
UT Off53.3%

It will be incumbent upon the Jayhawks to force Texas into more turnovers. An average Texas possession in conference play is worth 1.18 points to the Longhorns. Over a 67 possession game (Kansas plays at about 70 possessions a game; Texas plays at 64.), there’s a difference of 3 turnovers between the turnover rate Kansas forces on average and the average rate at which Texas turns the ball over. That’s three-and-a-half points the Jayhawks could gain on Saturday.

On the other hand, Texas will likely do a better job of keeping Kansas off the free throw line (their lack of depth forbids them from getting into foul trouble) than the typical conference opponent and could pick up an equal number of points versus the season averages.

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