Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Despite the evidence presented in the Field House on Saturday by the Missouri Tigers, I still contend that the Baylor Bears are the worst team in the Big 12. Working toward that contention, I offer the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers from each and every Baylor game this season.

OppPPPOpp PPPDiff/100
at TT0.971.27-30
at CU0.751.25-50
at A&M0.991.07-8
at NU0.721.02-30
at OU0.771.15-38
at UT0.891.27-38

Baylor has only been competitive in four games against three teams this season. They are last in the league in both offensive (though they do score 3 points more per 100 possessions than the average Kansas opponent in conference play) and defensive efficiency.

Kansas is better than Baylor in every statistical category. Every time a shot is attempted, Kansas is more likely to make the shot and more likely to rebound a missed shot. Kansas attempts more free throws and makes a higher percentage of their attempts than Baylor. Baylor gives their opponents more opportunities from the free throw line, force fewer turnovers, and turn the ball over slightly more often than Kansas.

Seven of the first eight players in Baylor’s rotation are less efficient scorers than Russell Robinson (who is at least 10% less efficient than any of his teammates). The eighth, Curtis Jerrells, is a promising young player but unlikely to get the best of Kansas’ perimeter defenders.

Prediction: Kansas 82 Baylor 48

No comments: