Monday, March 14, 2005

Austin Region

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Duke 69.4 52.442.437.963.119.522.41.140.93
vs.Tourney 68.5 54.245.535.160.219.719.91.151.04

Duke played 36.5% of their games against tournament teams (Michigan St, Oklahoma, NC State (2), Wake Forest (2), Georgia Tech (3), North Carolina (2)). Though their rebounding and defensive efficiency slipped against better opponents, Duke maintained their offensive efficiency against all manner of competition.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Kentucky 66.8 51.646.536.466.119.426.91.100.92
vs.Tourney 67.6 49.248.829.464.517.724.91.041.01

Kentucky played 33.6% of their games against tournament competition (North Carolina, Louisville, Kansas, LSU (2), Florida (3), Mississisppi St, Alabama). Kentucky maintained their ability both to create turnovers and not to turn the ball over themselves against their better opponents. Everything else suffered. Against non-tournament teams, Kentucky shot 1 FT for every 2.5 FGA and their non-tournament opponents attempted one free throw for every 3.8 FGA. Against tournament teams, Kentucky only shot 1 FT for every 3.3 FGA and their opponents shot one for every 2.5 FGA.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Oklahoma 66.2 54.246.438.567.620.823.81.140.95
vs.Tourney 66 51.748.638.567.120.8201.081.04

Oklahoma played 41.8% of their games against tournament teams (Washington, Minnesota, Duke, UConn, Texas (2), Oklahoma St (2), Iowa St, Texas Tech (3), Kansas). Most of Oklahoma's slippage in offensive and defensive efficiency against tournament teams can be traced to the free throw line. Oklahoma shot one free throw for every 3.2 FGA (and made only 63% of those free throws) while their tournament-bound opponents shot one free throw for every 2.4 FGA (and made 71.6% of those).

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Syracuse 66.3 52.645.540.663.520.122.31.130.98
vs.Tourney 66.6 45.546.43858.41821.71.031.06

Syracuse played 33.2% of their games against tournament teams (Mississippi St, Oklahoma St, W. Virginia (2), Pittsburgh (2), UConn (3), Villanova, Boston College). The Orange's shooting and rebounding numbers took a significant hit against tournament teams. One which extended to their free throw shooting (66.4% overall--62.7% against tournament teams). Boeheim's zone remained difficult to score off and continued to force turnovers but better opponents had a higher volume of attempts to score thanks to offensive rebounds.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
MichiganSt 66.1 55.74938.772.620.923.61.180.96
vs.Tourney 66.1 53.349.834.269.720.821.91.121.02

Michigan State played 46.2% of their games against tournament teams (Duke, George Washington, Stanford, Delaware St, UCLA, Wisconsin (2), Minnesota (2), Oakland, Illinois, Iowa (2)). Michigan State's field goal shooting, rebounding, and turnovers forced all took slight hits against tournament opposition, but generally maintained their performance level.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Utah 59.5 56.448.540.675.123.820.21.160.96
vs.Tourney 57.7 50.554.337.767.625.1181.031.14

Utah played 18.8% of their games against tournament teams (Washington, Utah St, Arizona, New Mexico (3)). Other than the blowout at Utah State, Utah played their tournament opponents reasonably close. Their only win, though, came at home against New Mexico. The Utes turn the ball over a lot and don't guard especially well.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Cincinnati 68.1 49.642.839.66519.620.91.110.94
vs.Tourney 67.4 44.247.337.867.72017.91.021.04

Cincinnati played 26.4% of their games against tournament teams (Illinois, Louisville (2), Charlotte (2), Wake Forest, UAB, Northern Iowa). Several games featured mighty offensive struggles for the Bearcats: 32 eFG% against Illinois, 41 eFG% at Louisville, 43 eFG% (and 30.6 TO%) against UAB's porous defense, 31.5 eFG% against Northern Iowa. If Cincinnati doesn't maintain their ability to shoot 1 free throw for every 2.2 FGA, they won't score enough to win.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Stanford 67.8 47.247.334.965.720.721.91.031.00
vs.Tourney 69.5 49.748.434.663.220.721.51.051.04

Stanford played 33.2% of their games against tournament teams (Louisville, Michigan St, Montana, Washington (3), Arizona (2), UCLA (2)). The Cardinal maintained their mediocrity in all recorded situations.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
MississippiSt 67.9 49.546.840.770.622.3201.070.96
vs.Tourney 68.8 43.751.4356721.920.30.941.07

Mississippi State played 31.3% of their games against tournament teams (Syracuse, St. Mary's, Arizona, Alabama (2), LSU (2), Florida (2), Kentucky). They beat St. Mary's in MSG and Florida in Starkville. Everything else ended badly for the Bulldogs. Turns out I was right: they really miss Tim Bowers.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Iowa 67.5 52.147.232.767.521.322.31.070.98
vs.Tourney 68.4 48.647.13168.320.819.31.031.02

Iowa played 43.6% of their games against tournament teams (Louisville, Texas, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Iowa St, Texas Tech, Minnesota (2), Illinois (2), Michigan St (2), Wisconsin (2)). Pierre Pierce isn't missed because his points were only about a wash with all his missed shots and turnovers. The Hawkeyes are better than Minnesota but they're not very good. They didn't even play very well in the Big 10 tournament.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
UTEP 66.1 51.64934.168.218.522.71.140.98
vs.Tourney 66.5 49.447.232.663.123.323.21.011.01

UTEP played 17.9% of their games against tournament teams (Delaware St, S. Illinois, Texas Tech, Nevada (2), Pacific). The Miners struggled to score against those teams, but didn't allow points easily despite being outrebounded on the whole. Those offensive numbers against tournament teams are inflated by the Delaware State game.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
ODU 65.7 49.845.73468.818.425.41.080.90

Old Dominion didn't play a tournament team. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain that defensive performance against Michigan State.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Vermont 65.1 51.646.634.274.218.219.31.120.95
vs.Tourney 69.7 46.250.630.363.222.518.20.911.16

Vermont played at Kansas, at North Carolina, and at Nevada. Certainly not easy games, but Vermont didn't play well in any of them. Half their field goal attempts were three-pointers. Their opponents shot more than twice as many free throws (88 to 41). Only Kansas turned the ball over on more than 18% of their possessions.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
Niagara 70.3 50.951.840.870.817.817.71.191.09
vs.Tourney 67.9 55.857.34081.32523.61.091.06

Niagara lost 76-74 at Bucknell in their only game against a tournament team this year. It's unlikely that Niagara will maintain those rebounding numbers against Oklahoma, but it will be interesting to see if they can force the Sooners into an up-tempo game.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
EKentucky 67.5 53.547.935.46821.622.11.081.00
vs.Tourney 75.5 40.458.127.872.730.515.30.741.22

Eastern Kentucky got killed at Florida and at Louisville this year. They are slated to be similarly outclassed (at a slower pace) against regular Kentucky.

TEAM Poss/40 eFG%opp eFG%OR%DR%TO%opp TO%PPPopp PPP
DelawareSt 60 49.152.933.86223.227.41.031.01
vs.Tourney 58.7 50.468.429.360.930.121.40.921.31

Delaware State was soundly beaten at UTEP, at Michigan State, and at Illinois this season. Those three teams found no defensive resistence. If Duke had reserves they could expect to log significant minutes on Friday.

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