Sunday, April 25, 2010

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Milwaukee Bucks 107 Atlanta Hawks 89

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

Mike Woodson:
"They were the most physical team tonight, and it showed on the scoreboard. We just didn’t match any of their ‘physicalness’ to start the game."
Making shots is a kind of physical play, I guess.

Scott Skiles:
"With Bogues (injured center Andrew Bogut) out, we need our defense to create some offense for us. It's hard for us to slow the game down and throw it inside. We need to get stops, get the ball out in transition, look at early offense and hopefully knock some shots down. We were able to do that early in the game, and we weren't in the two games in Atlanta.

We're still hopeful at some point we'll shoot 25 or 30 free throws. But in games that we don't, we're going to have to make some threes. And it's got to come off ball movement and unselfish play, and then you step into them and knock them down with confidence."
One of these coaches takes the post-game questions more seriously than the other. Or maybe less seriously, thus being both more straightforward and detailed in his answers.

Joe Johnson:
"It’s unacceptable to get blown out like this. We’ll look at the tape and correct our mistakes, but more than anything it’s about coming out and playing with more effort."
Then again, the Hawks players really do appear to believe that effort is more important than execution so Woodson's post-game answers may be every bit as direct and honest as those I've come to anticipate so eagerly from Skiles. They're not unrelated, of course. It takes hard work to execute well but I suspect that the specific focus on detail and process leads to better effort than frantic requests for effort. Frantic, as opposed to say, lackadaisical, better described Atlanta's performance (at least when they had the ball) for much of the first three quarters.

Jamal Crawford:
"They did us like we did them. They protected their home court."
Michael Cunningham:
The Hawks’ pick-and-roll defense was awful. After solid defensive efforts in Games 1 and 2 the Hawks were back to those familiar bad switches and lax closeouts. That meant layups and open 3-pointers all night for the Bucks.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute:
"We found our offense. We held the ball too much in Atlanta trying to exploit a mismatch, and they were doing a good job of collapsing. Once we started sharing the ball and cutting, guys were finding openings and gaps and they were able to drive and kick and get into the game we usually play."
John Salmons on the Carlos Delfino three-pointer that ignited a 10-2 Milwaukee run in the third quarter that pushed their lead from 54-45 to 64-47:
"If you look at that possession, that's exactly what we were talking about these last three days. It's trusting each other and moving the ball, finding the open guy. We did that on that possession and Carlos hit a big shot for us."
Scott Skiles on Kurt Thomas:
"I could probably start with a lot of guys but Kurt was great. He plugged up the middle for us, knocked down his shot, moved the ball around, boarded it. He was really active tonight. It's no secret the first couple of games they owned us in the paint, and we were able to take a couple of things away from them tonight."
Brew Hoop on Mbah a Moute:
Scott Skiles said in the pregame presser that he would start by sticking The Prince on Josh Smith and the result was fantastic: None of those game-changing dunks, half as many blocks (1) as Brandon Jennings, as many field goals (2) as Primoz Brezec in 30 more minutes, as many assists (1) as Dan Gadzuric, and not many more reasons to like the city of Milwaukee for Smith, who was boo'd every time he touched the ball.
Mark Bradley:
The Hawks fell behind and stayed there. They never put any game pressure, to use a Krzyzewski phrase, on the home team. They made it too easy.

And that’s the reason the Hawks still aren’t considered a first-tier NBA team. Yeah, they won 53 games this season, but they had a losing record on the road. Given a chance to make a bold statement in this essential road game, they looked up halfway through the fourth quarter and saw themselves 28 points in arrears.

They’re better than that, or they should be. They’re seasoned enough to know what’s coming in a Game 3 on the road. They’re gifted enough to take an inspired opponent’s best shot and hit back harder. But on this sobering night they seemed content to rely on Philips Arena to win the series for them.

Which it can. The Bucks aren’t apt to break through in Atlanta. But the Hawks can’t reach the Eastern Conference finals unless they win away from home against an opponent far better than Milwaukee.
Soaring Down South:
As putrid as the Hawks were on offense, this game was lost defensively and on the backboard.

The Hawks are now 1-8 in their last nine road playoff contests. Those losses have been by an average margin of 24 points. That is simply not showing up ready to compete.
Bucksketball:
For all the coaching adjustments, matching up and other things that go into a playoff series, sometimes it’s the simple things that end up making the biggest difference. For the Bucks, that “little thing” was finally hitting the three at a respectable clip.
Sekou Smith on Josh Smith's willingness to speak:
When Bulls center Joakim Noah made a few wise cracks about Cleveland, he followed up those comments with one of the best playoff games of his young career.

Hawks forward Josh smith made similar statements about the city of Milwaukee but couldn’t back up his bold words with a performance of the same ilk.

...

A word advice to young Mr. Smith, let it be from now on. Even if that’s what you really think, let it be! And in the event that you just can’t help yourself, the least you can do is back it up!

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Milwaukee Bucks 107 Atlanta Hawks 89

Boxscore

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
ATL 87
1.023
40.8 20.7
34.4 13.8
MIL 87 1.23 57.5
18.8
37.7
16.1

In a certain sense, this shouldn't be a surprise. Milwaukee did everything they said they'd do: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute started the game defending Josh Smith, they moved better without the ball, and they shot the ball better. It wasn't assured before the fact, but each adjustment had the desired effect for the Bucks. Mbah a Moute solidified Milwaukee's interior defense (Smith was 2-12 from the floor and earned just one assist), given passing options when attacking the heart of Atlanta's defense the Bucks had just five shots blocked, and, after making half the their two-point attempts and just 22.7% of their three-point attempts through two games, the Bucks made 54.4% of their two-point attempts (an improvement not unrelated to having fewer shots blocked) and 43.5% of their three-point attempts.

It remains to be seen how the Hawks adjust to Milwaukee's adjustments. For reasons that have featured prominently in this space for years, there are certain advantages* to letting Atlanta run their offense through Joe Johnson to the (relative) exclusion of Josh Smith. However, it's hard to discern, based on the evidence of tonight's game where solid defensive tactics end and missing makeable shots begin. The Hawks should use Joe Johnson heavily if he's matched up against Carlos Delfino or John Salmons and Smith and Al Horford are guarded by Mbah a Moute and Kurt Thomas respectively.

*Josh Smith's usefulness decreases the farther he strays from the basket while simultaneously giving the defense an extra player to help on Johnson; Johnson doesn't get to the free throw line.

For one half, Johnson held up his end of the bargain, scoring 16 points on 10 shots and earning 3 assists. His disastrous 1-7 plus a turnover third quarter was a different story, but would it have been so decisive had Josh Smith not missed eight of ten shots in the paint (and both jump shots he attempted), had Marvin Williams not missed all six shots he attempted inside of 15 feet, had Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford not missed 12 of 18 field goals (0-6 3PTA) through three quarters, or had the Hawks not forgotten about Al Horford's success with the pick-and-pop against Thomas until halfway through the third quarter? Despite taking more shots than any two other Hawks before he exited the game, Johnson rarely forced the action. He earned four of Atlanta's eleven pre-garbage time assists and committed just the one (aforementioned) turnover.

The Hawks got blown out for one very familiar reason: the team's defense, in allowing for its inherent limitations in preventing dribble penetration, is designed to force the other team into taking jump shots. Milwaukee, to their credit, made a huge percentage of the jump shots they got against the Hawks in this game. In Game 4, should that not be the case, and, should the Hawks convert more of their decent looks, the result may not change* but the contest should remain competitive for more than 40 minutes of game time. Especially if Josh Smith and Al Horford can combine for more than four defensive rebounds.

*The Hawks are now 19-23 on the road this season.

Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (2-0) @ Milwaukee Bucks (0-2)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EDT)

TELEVISION
: ESPN, Fox Sports South, ESPN3

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Bucks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

MILWAUKEE INJURY REPORT
: Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are out.

BY THE NUMBERS

84 games
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (off)
90.1
1.066
48.2 17.9
26.3 14.4
ATL (def)
88.8 1.082 49.6
27.7
27.4
15.4

84 games
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (def)
90.1
1.051
48.7 34.5
23.7 16.7
ATL (off)
88.8 1.135 50.7
21.3
28.2
13.3

Playoffs Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (off)
86
1.035
45.9 11.6
33 15.7
ATL (def)
86 1.035 45.9
18
33
15.7

Playoffs Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (def)
87
1.138
53.5 25
28.4 13.2
ATL (off)
87 1.138 53.5
19.9
28.4
13.2

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
: Milwaukee -1, 187.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES
: Bucksketball, Brew Hoop

PREVIOUSLY
...the Atlanta Hawks beat the Milwaukee Bucks twice in Atlanta to open the series, doing the vast majority of the damage when both Josh Smith and Al Horford are on the floor.

Recap of Atlanta's 96-86 Game 2 victory on Tuesday night.

Quotes, notes, and links from Game 2.

How the Atlanta fast break made an impact on Game 2 in words.

How the Atlanta fast break made an impact on Game 2 in motion.

Recap of Atlanta's 102-92 win on Saturday in the first game of their first-round playoff series.

Quotes, notes, and links from Game 1.

Video analysis of Game 1.

As for the regular season...

The Hawks and Bucks played three times during the regular season. In the first meeting on February 28th in Atlanta, the Hawks beat the Bucks 106-102 in overtime. From the recap:
Sitting through another 18 point fourth quarter (though at least this time against a good defensive team) makes one wonder. One wonders why Josh Smith doesn't attempt a field goal* in the fourth quarter. One wonders why, during a four minute stretch of the fourth quarter when Milwaukee goes to a four-guard lineup meaning either Carlos Delfino or Jerry Stackhouse is guarding Smith, Smith never once touches the ball in the post.

One wonders if it's because Smith and Horford (and, to a lesser extent, Marvin Williams**) are responsible for rebounding, defense, and both creating and finishing transition opportunities so that Johnson, Bibby, and Crawford can play poor defense and take long jump shots (30 field attempts from beyond 16 feet from the troika in the game) with minimal consequences.

*He does go the line four times and turn the ball over twice.

**Williams made three of his five field goal attempts, his only three-point attempt, grabbed eight rebounds (three offensive), and played the aforementioned good defense to slow Salmons. He also opened the fourth quarter by making a 20-foot jumper but never attempted another shot.
The second meeting was in Milwaukee and the Bucks won 98-95 on March 22nd. From the recap:
Skiles' decision to go small neutered Josh Smith's help defense to a greater degree than Smith was able to take advantage of his size advantage in the post. Maybe that was another reason to leave Delfino isolated on Johnson. Letting the Hawks play through Johnson seriously reduced the chance of Atlanta scoring three points on a possession (as long as Delfino didn't commit a silly, relatively unlikely foul) even if it increased the chance Atlanta would score two points on a possession whereas playing through Josh Smith (matched up against Stackhouse in the post) could create open looks from beyond the arc.
The third and final meeting took place on Monday, again in Milwaukee, and the Hawks won 104-96. From the recap:
Kurt Thomas, playing in Bogut's stead, showed that he can still do three things: defend his man in the post, rebound on the defensive end, and set solid screens. The first ability could cause Atlanta problems if the Hawks insist on trying to post up Al Horford against Thomas. Milwaukee had no need to send a second defender to help Thomas. The Hawks never sent a second offensive player to help Horford, leaving the Atlanta center frustrated. As the game progressed and, presumably, the Hawks noticed how much more effective offensively Zaza Pachulia* was when he drew Thomas further away from the basket, Horford was utilized more often in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop sets and was more successful.
Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Bet It Hit Rim #3: 22

The visual accompaniment to this post, now updated to include the two previously missing fast break points.

RaptorBlog: Ranking NBA Centers on Their Post Defense

RaptorBlog uses of MySynergySports to reveal that Al Horford defended the post both frequently and really, really well this season.

Off Day Links About Off Days And Other Subjects

Scott Skiles on the three full days off between Games 2 and 3:
"I think it’s a factor. Probably one team will adjust to that better than the other and I would say that team probably deserves the game if they get it because they can adjust to kind of getting out of their rhythm a little bit."
Josh Smith, you might have heard, finds the off day entertainment options in Milwaukee lacking.

On-day news concerning Josh Smith, from the mouth Luc Richard Mbah a Moute:
"Josh has been hurting us a little bit, and I see myself being on him a little bit now. Coach has got a good game plan, and we'll see how it goes."
Skiles on Smith:
"Josh had nine field goals, one in the post and one on a jump shot. The other seven were on lob dunks after timeouts, two on offensive rebounds."
Skiles, continued:
"They're not going down in the post over and over again. hey're picking and popping Kurt more than anything else, and they've had an after-timeout play mixed in for him as well. About 60% of their offense comes in the first 10 to 12 seconds of the shot clock. We've got to get them in more low-clock situations, which we've struggled to do so far."
You really don't need me at this point.

Henry Abbott sings the praises of Josh Smith at TrueHoop:
Only Jason Richardson has a playoff PER better than Atlanta's super-athlete, who is more than proving people wrong for that All-Star snub. He has made 15 of 21 shots, and is among the league's leaders in two hugely important categories: field goal and rebounding percentage. In his 72 minutes, he has also had 13 assists, six blocks and just two turnovers. All of the Hawks starters have amazing plus/minus numbers so far, and Smith is no exception -- the Hawks have been about 40 points better per 100 possessions when he's in the game.
As does John Hollinger (Insider):

One of the most questionable All-Star snubs in recent years, Smith has provided even more momentum for his cause with a dominant first two games against Milwaukee and a second-place finish in the league's Defensive Player of the Year voting.

The Bucks are down 2-0 because they can't match up with Smith without Andrew Bogut. With defensive ace Luc Richard Mbah a Moute assigned to Atlanta leading scorer Joe Johnson, the Bucks are defending Smith with players who are either too small or too slow to check him.

The Hawks bench, on the other hand:
The Hawks have been a very strong team so far -- it's nearly impossible to imagine they'll lose in the first-round, which you can't say about many teams. But make no mistake, it's because of their starters...Their backups, however, have been bad. Bret Lagree of Hoopinion: "The Hawks bench is a collective nine of 32 from the floor with 12 rebounds, six assists, and seven turnovers in 150 minutes. Zaza Pachulia, Joe Smith and Jeff Teague all have negative PERs through two games."
Maybe you do need me, after all. Take that, Skiles!

Brandon Jennings has set a realistic Game 3 goal for himself:
"I'm going to try not to get my shots blocked as many times as I did."
Soaring Down South has excerpts from Lawrence Frank's discussion of the Hawks on the NBA Today podcast*.

*I'm still waiting to be asked back.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Some Josh Smith and Al Horford On/Off Information Through Two Whole Playoff Games

Both Smith and Horford have been on the court for 65:10 of the 96 minutes. The Hawks have outscored the Bucks 144-105 in that time.

Neither Smith nor Horford have been on the court for 15:08 of the 96 minutes. The Bucks have outscored the Hawks 36-24 in that time.

Horford but not Smith has been on the court for 9:12 of the 96 minutes. The Hawks have outscored the Bucks 19-15 in that time.

Smith but not Horford has been on the court for 6:32 of the 96 minutes. The Bucks have outscored the Hawks 23-11 in that time.

*I realize the time sums to 96:02. My apologies.

Comparing Josh Smith and LeBron James

There were only two players in the league this season with a Block Rate above 2% and a Steal Rate above 2.0% and an Assist Rate over 13% and a Total Rebound Rate over 10%. (HT: TrueHoop)

Those two players are Josh Smith and LeBron James and Smith has the higher rate in three of the four categories. Impressive, no?

If only scoring weren't so important.

This season, James scored a league-leading 39.9 points per 100 on court offensive possessions with a TS% of 60.4% (12th in the league). Josh Smith scored 23.7 points per 100 on court offensive possessions with a TS% of 53.6% (the league average was 54.3%). James' assist rate was more than twice Smith's and James posted the lower turnover rate (12.3% to 14.3%).

The lesson: Josh Smith isn't comparable to LeBron James but he may be more comparable than almost anyone else in the league.

Breaking Down 22 Fast Break Points

22 fast break points. Kind of a lot in an 87-possession game. Especially one in which your opponents get three out of every eight possible offensive rebounds and force just 13 turnovers (with two of the turnovers being passes out of bounds, one being a 24-second violation, and one a steal with a single second left in the third quarter). Of course, that has a lot to do with it being an 87-possession game as well. Bucksketball's Jeremy saw the success the Atlanta Hawks had in running on the Milwaukee Bucks as a key to the Game 2 victory:
The Hawks are constantly looking to run on Milwaukee. They’re running on turnovers, they’re running on misses and they’re running on makes. Atlanta’s motto seems to be: never stop running. But they aren’t doing it irresponsibly, mind you. They’re in control the whole time. If there isn’t an easy shot, Atlanta is pulling it back out. But they are at least exploring the opportunity to see if there is something they can get easy. The fast breaks that have come off Milwaukee turnovers have been especially effective.
20 of the Hawks' 22 credited fast break points (UPDATE: All 22 points have been accounted for) are easily discerned and listed below with the five Hawks on the floor at the time on the right margin.

1Q
Bibby/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford
8:16 [ATL 8-6] Smith Alley Oop Dunk Shot: Made (2 PTS) Assist: Bibby (1 AST)
6:47 [ATL 14-8] Horford Turnaround Jump Shot: Made (6 PTS) Assist: Smith (3 AST)
Crawford/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Pachulia
2:52 [ATL 21-12] Williams Running Dunk Shot: Made (4 PTS) Assist: Johnson (3 AST) Williams Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)
Teague/Crawford/Evans/Josh Smith/Pachulia
0:15.7 [ATL 26-20] Smith Running Slam Dunk Shot: Made (6 PTS)
0:01.9 [ATL 28-20] Smith Putback Layup Shot: Made (8 PTS)

2Q
Bibby/Crawford/Johnson/Joe Smith/Horford
8:10 [ATL 34-32] Horford Layup Shot: Made (12 PTS) Assist: Johnson (4 AST)

3Q
Bibby/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford
10:38 [ATL 56-46] Williams Running Layup Shot: Made (7 PTS) Williams Free Throw 1 of 1 (8 PTS)
Crawford/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford
5:48 [ATL 65-53] Smith Putback Dunk Shot: Made (16 PTS)
Crawford/Johnson/Evans/Josh Smith/Horford
4:24 [ATL 69-53] Johnson Running Layup Shot: Made (15 PTS) Assist: Smith (5 AST)
2:58 [ATL 73-55] Evans Driving Layup Shot: Made (2 PTS) Assist: Smith (7 AST)
  • Eight points and three assists for Josh Smith (who was on court for 18 of the 20 fast break points I've identified)
  • Six points for Marvin Williams
  • Two points and two assists for Joe Johnson (who was on court for 16 of the 20 fast break points I've identified)
  • Four points for Al Horford
  • Two points for Mo Evans
  • One assist for Mike Bibby
As to how these nine fast breaks started...

1Q
Bibby/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford
8:21 Thomas Jump Shot: Missed 8:20 Bibby Rebound (Off:0 Def:1)
6:54 Salmons Jump Shot: Missed 6:52 Smith Rebound (Off:0 Def:1)
Crawford/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Pachulia
2:56 Mbah a Moute Layup Shot: Missed Block: Smith (1 BLK) 2:54 Crawford Rebound (Off:0 Def:1)
Teague/Crawford/Evans/Josh Smith/Pachulia
0:18.9 Ilyasova Turnover: Bad Pass (1 TO) Steal: Smith (1 ST)
0:08.9 Salmons Turnover: Lost Ball (1 TO) Steal: Crawford (1 ST)

2Q
Bibby/Crawford/Johnson/Joe Smith/Horford
8:16 Delfino 3pt Shot: Missed 8:14 Johnson Rebound (Off:0 Def:3)

3Q
Bibby/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford
10:41 Salmons Turnover: Lost Ball (2 TO) Steal: Williams (1 ST)
Crawford/Johnson/Williams/Josh Smith/Horford
5:56 Delfino Turnover: Bad Pass (2 TO) Steal: Horford (2 ST)
Crawford/Johnson/Evans/Josh Smith/Horford
4:29 Stackhouse Fade Away Jumper Shot: Missed 4:28 Smith Rebound (Off:2 Def:6)
3:05 Salmons Fade Away Jumper Shot: Made (10 PTS) [MIL 55-71]
  • Five of the fast breaks began with defensive rebounds of missed/blocked shots (three of those rebounded by guards)
  • Four began with steals
  • One came off a made basket

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 96 Milwaukee Bucks 86

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

A shorter, slightly different version of my recap appears as #3 in the Daily Dime this morning.

Scott Skiles:
"They outplayed us in almost every spot up and down the floor. If we keep handing out those easy baskets, it could be over quick."
I could stop there, couldn't I?

No, I couldn't. Let's talk about Josh Smith.

Mike Woodson on Josh Smith:
"There's nothing he can't do on the floor. [ed.--*cough*jump shots*cough*] We just have to keep him playing at a high level, keep his head in the game and we'll be just fine."
John Salmons on Smith:
"He's one of those players that can control the game without calling plays for him."
Josh Smith:
"I just have to give credit to my teammates for sticking with me. They know whenever they pass the ball in the post and I get double-teamed, I’m going to make the right play. I was able to get it going early and sustain it throughout the ballgame."
Michael Cunningham on a key component of Smith's performance, one I shamefully overlooked:
The thing I noticed is even when the Hawks made a bad play at one end he just sprinted back the other way instead of sulking.
Drew, though, wins the most observant award:
Josh Smith was three pouts, two jump shots, and one pass away from a perfect game.
No word if pouts will soon be tracked by SynergySports but I wouldn't bet against it.

Mike Woodson's so happy, he's giving credit to the home crowd:
"The fans have been great the last three years. They really enjoy the product on the floor and how we play. They’ve been huge in the playoffs, like a sixth man."
Al Horford is wary of the awaiting home crowd:
"We’re on edge. We can’t take anything lightly. I’m sure it’s going to be a tough environment. We’re fighting for our lives."
Wherein Scott Skiles praises the Hawks and criticizes the Bucks in equal measure:
"There are a lot of problems in dealing with them. But if you're going to drive to the basket against a team that had double-digit blocks in the (previous) two games, and you throw the ball right in their arms, you've got an issue there. This is the highest level (of basketball) in the world. You've got to go in there and get it up and over them, or you've got to stop and pop before you get to that level. Or you've got to draw it and kick it to somebody else."
I'm going to miss his post-game quotes when this series is over.

Or, for that matter, his pre-game qoutes. Like this answer to a question about Josh Smith:
"It's been awhile since I've looked at the numbers, but Josh has taken about 770 shots during the regular season right in the restricted area, and roughly 280 were outside the painted area."
Before the game, Kurt Helin, at Pro Basketball Talk, argued that the Hawks wouldn't be troubled by Brandon Jennings for a second consecutive game. He was right. After the game, Michael Cunningham talked to the Hawks about how they did it.

After the game, Jennings revealed he'd been reduced to the editorial we:
"They're going to block some shots. Our main thing is we're going to have to start learning how to pump-fake a little bit more or even hitting the elbow jump shot. If we're going to go in there, we're going to have to try to dunk it."
The Human Highlight Blog assesses the performance of the Hawks' bench:
stinky
Okay, full excerpt:
The Hawks bench was.....uh, stinky. They were as bad as the Bucks starters were, and therefore got outpaced 40-7 by their reserve counterparts as a result. Zaza Pachilia, Maurice Evans, and Jamal Crawford simply didn't have the same vibe the starters did, and to Mike Woodson's credit, he didn't wait long for them to find it.
And, from the same recap, a better joke than I could muster about the garbage time confrontation between curious Mike Woodson infatuations past and present:
Royal Ivey v. Mario West: Ivey won the battle, West wins the war.
Jeff Schultz makes the obvious comparison involving Josh Smith:
He is forever the Hawks’ X-factor because so few can do what he does, which, by the way, is everything. The only comparable might be a guy named LeBron.
Never heard that nickname for Gerald Wallace before.

Michael Hunt on the apparently impossible problem facing Scott Skiles:
Before his team had the chance to offer up another eight shots that the Atlanta Hawks could swat off the base of Stone Mountain all the way from downtown Philips Arena, Milwaukee Bucks coach Scott Skiles was his typically upfront self about the clear physical disparities between the playoff opponents.

Of course, Skiles said, the Hawks have length and size all over the Bucks. But if they could somehow find that little something extra that has carried them throughout the second half of the regular season, Skiles said he could live with the results.

So what do you do now?

The effort wasn't the issue Tuesday night. The Bucks hung with the Hawks about as long as humanly possible without the kind of center that might have put a cease-and-desist order on some of the mismatches that continued to occur with regularity on a floor where the home team almost never loses.
Frank Madden has a suggestion. That I agree with it can provide comfort to fans of either team, I suppose:
the Bucks' starting unit just isn't very good (-6.5 pts/100 possessions in the regular season). It's not to say the Bucks' bench is a more productive group pound-for-pound (they tend to face weaker competition obviously), but relatively speaking they're usually better than the other team's bench. Based on what we've seen over the past few weeks, the Bucks' recipe for winning seems to be a) hope that the starters keep it close and b) let the bench build a lead. It also makes you wonder whether it's worth keeping everything constant rather than, for instance, putting Ilyasova in for Delfino or Mbah a Moute.
At SI.com, Frank Hughes states the obvious:
Milwaukee shot just 43.6 percent from the field during the regular season, which ranked next-to-last in the league, behind only New Jersey. Essentially, they struggle to shoot from the outside. But when they attempt to get to the rim, Josh Smith and the rest of Atlanta's frontcourt are waiting to swat away any shots. After 11 blocks in Game 1, the Hawks came up with another eight rejections in Game 2, which then forced the Bucks back to the outside, where poor shot after poor shot sent the game into a tailspin.
Soaring Down South also gives the Atlanta Hawks' defense some well-earned attention:
As nice as those offensive numbers are the key to this Hawks victory was in their defense. I don’t think I have ever seen the Hawks force a team into as many tough shots as the Bucks last night. The switching defense was working well last night as simply the Bucks could not find room to operate and were forced into long jump shots at the shot clock buzzer with a hand in their face. Some nights those shots go in sometimes they don’t. Last night’s game was the latter for the Bucks. Also the Hawks blocked 8 shots as a team so they were contesting everything.
Pictures with Captions

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Atlanta Hawks 96 Milwaukee Bucks 86

Boxscore

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL 86
1.000
43.3 8.9
37.5 15.1
ATL 87 1.103 49.4
21.3
25.6
11.5

Al Horford and Josh Smith were the dominant forces on both ends of the floor for the Hawks. They combined for 41 points (on just 24 shots and 8 free throw attempts), 24 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 blocks and 4 steals. They committed only two turnovers. They were on the court together for 30 minutes and 23 seconds during which the Hawks outscored the Bucks 67-45. They were both off the court for 6 minutes and 42 seconds* during which the Bucks outscored the Hawks 19-4.

*One minutes and 50 seconds of that was garbage time, won 4-0 by the Bucks. Call it a 15-4 deficit over 4 minutes and 52 seconds of competitive basketball.

Horford and Smith allowed the Hawks to coast to victory on a night when Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford combined to make just 4 of 18 field goal attempts (1 of 6 three-pointers) and Joe Johnson once again chose to make both his ability to make difficult shots and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute's fine on-the-ball defense too central to events. Johnson scored 27 points on 23 shots. Not especially impressive unless you saw how difficult the shots were. Perhaps less impressive when you consider 5 of Johnson's 12 made field goals were assisted by either Smith or Horford. Johnson earned six assists of his own (against three turnovers) and, to his credit, was more active than normal defensively, blocking two shots himself, and playing a significant role in Brandon Jennings's (somewhat predictable) 3-15 shooting night.

Smith and Horford had hands in that as well. They're asked to defend the entire court on a regular basis, but it works almost flawlessly when they're leaving players as limited offensively as Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas, or Dan Gadzuric to cover for Atlanta's perimeter defenders. I suspect Scott Skiles will either have to start Mbah a Moute on Smith to improve Milwaukee's post defense or play Ersan Ilyasova (who had a double-double at halftime but was a non-factor in the second half) a lot more in the hopes he does damage in the space Horford and Smith vacate when switching on ball-screens or providing help defense.

Something has to change for Milwaukee to win one of the next two at home as it's hard to imagine Milwaukee making enough shots of the quality they're getting or Atlanta missing enough shots of the quality they can get when they play through Smith and Horford.

Game Preview: Milwaukee Bucks (0-1) @ Atlanta Hawks (1-0)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EDT)

TELEVISION
: NBA TV, Fox Sports South

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Bucks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

MILWAUKEE INJURY REPORT
: Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are out.

BY THE NUMBERS

83 games
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (off)
90.1
1.067
48.3 18.1
26.2 14.4
ATL (def)
88.8 1.083 49.6
27.9
27.2
15.4

83 games
Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (def)
90.1
1.05
48.7 34.7
23.7 16.8
ATL (off)
88.8 1.135 50.7
21.3
28.2
13.4

Playoffs Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (off)
86
1.07
48.8 14.6
27.5 16.3
ATL (def)
86 1.07 48.8
20.5
27.5
16.3

Playoffs Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL (def)
87
1.172
57.9 20.7
31.4 14.9
ATL (off)
87 1.172 57.9
18.4
31.4
14.9

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -7.5, 187.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Bucksketball, Brew Hoop

PREVIOUSLY...the Atlanta Hawks beat the Milwaukee Bucks 102-92 on Saturday in the first game of their first-round playoff series.

Notes, quotes, and links from Game 1 are here.

Video analysis of Game 1 can be seen here.

The Hawks and Bucks played three times during the regular season. In the first meeting on February 28th in Atlanta, the Hawks beat the Bucks 106-102 in overtime. From the recap:
Sitting through another 18 point fourth quarter (though at least this time against a good defensive team) makes one wonder. One wonders why Josh Smith doesn't attempt a field goal* in the fourth quarter. One wonders why, during a four minute stretch of the fourth quarter when Milwaukee goes to a four-guard lineup meaning either Carlos Delfino or Jerry Stackhouse is guarding Smith, Smith never once touches the ball in the post.

One wonders if it's because Smith and Horford (and, to a lesser extent, Marvin Williams**) are responsible for rebounding, defense, and both creating and finishing transition opportunities so that Johnson, Bibby, and Crawford can play poor defense and take long jump shots (30 field attempts from beyond 16 feet from the troika in the game) with minimal consequences.

*He does go the line four times and turn the ball over twice.

**Williams made three of his five field goal attempts, his only three-point attempt, grabbed eight rebounds (three offensive), and played the aforementioned good defense to slow Salmons. He also opened the fourth quarter by making a 20-foot jumper but never attempted another shot.
The second meeting was in Milwaukee and the Bucks won 98-95 on March 22nd. From the recap:
Skiles' decision to go small neutered Josh Smith's help defense to a greater degree than Smith was able to take advantage of his size advantage in the post. Maybe that was another reason to leave Delfino isolated on Johnson. Letting the Hawks play through Johnson seriously reduced the chance of Atlanta scoring three points on a possession (as long as Delfino didn't commit a silly, relatively unlikely foul) even if it increased the chance Atlanta would score two points on a possession whereas playing through Josh Smith (matched up against Stackhouse in the post) could create open looks from beyond the arc.
The third and final meeting took place on Monday, again in Milwaukee, and the Hawks won 104-96. From the recap:
Kurt Thomas, playing in Bogut's stead, showed that he can still do three things: defend his man in the post, rebound on the defensive end, and set solid screens. The first ability could cause Atlanta problems if the Hawks insist on trying to post up Al Horford against Thomas. Milwaukee had no need to send a second defender to help Thomas. The Hawks never sent a second offensive player to help Horford, leaving the Atlanta center frustrated. As the game progressed and, presumably, the Hawks noticed how much more effective offensively Zaza Pachulia* was when he drew Thomas further away from the basket, Horford was utilized more often in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop sets and was more successful.
Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Quotes, Notes, and Links From the Interval Between Games 1 and 2

Michael Cunningham reports that Joe Johnson's right thumb still bothers him. Johnson:
"It takes a little while for [the feeling] to come back. Other than that, I’ve been good. I am just trying to pick my spots out there and get guys involved. I am just going to rest it after the season. That is the only way it is going to get better. I’ve just got to keep icing it and treating it."
Joe Johnson is still getting credit for forcing two Brandon Jennings turnovers in the third quarter. The other 29 possessions, most of those at least beginning with Johnson defending Jennings, that Jennings used to create 40 points continue to go unmentioned.

More convincingly, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is credited with doing a "respectable" job against Johnson in Game 1.

Today's story from Cunningham in the AJC details the lip service the Atlanta Hawks pay to playing good defense with passages both amusing:
Playing defense for the Hawks can be just as taxing mentally as it is physically.

Their schemes can vary drastically depending on the combination of players they have on the floor. Players must quickly gauge things such as which opponent has the ball in which area of the floor before deciding how to react.

One thing stays the same. It’s what Hawks coach Mike Woodson calls the "individual challenge" of defense, and it doesn’t depend on systems or strategy.

"Just guard your man," Hawks guard Jamal Crawford said.
and revealing:
"My mentality is to not give up a layup or a three," Horford said of defending guards. "When I played in college for [Florida’s Billy] Donovan, I was put in a position of guarding a lot of smaller perimeter guys. I remember he used to tell us, 'No threes and no layups.' If they want to hit those long [two-point baskets], you can live with those as long as you are challenging them. That’s what I try to do."
Scott Skiles sets realistic defensive goals for the Milwaukee Bucks:
"In the third quarter they shot 39%. I don't expect us to go out and hold the Atlanta Hawks to 39% shooting in a full game; they're a very talented team. But it can't be 62%, either. When we see our guys not playing as well as they have, as hard as they have, we have to address it."
At Brew Hoop, Frank Madden would like to see Carlos Delfino get a chance to defend Joe Johnson.

Michael Cunnigham also interviewed Michael Gearon, Jr. I agree that turning Shelden Williams into Mike Bibby isn't bad work but it doesn't make up for turning the chance to draft Brandon Roy into drafting Shelden Williams in the first place.

Peachtree Hoops is not scared of Brandon Jennings.

Bucksketball questions whether or not to worry about Mike Bibby. From a different perspective than Hawks fans have wondered that at times this season.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Bet It Hit Rim #2: Strange Case

NBA Playbook: The Hawks Get Two Key Baskets In The 4th

Sebastian Pruiti breaks down two fourth quarter buckets, each of which extended the Hawks' lead to 10 points: Jamal Crawford's 30-footer and Al Horford's lone make of the second half.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 102 Milwaukee Bucks 92

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

Mike Woodson on his team's excellent start:
"We’re at home, we’re playing playoff basketball, and we’re playing in front of our fans, who were fantastic tonight. That’s the energy. We came out and jumped them right away."
Scott Skiles on his team's terrible start and partial recovery:
"The first half we were a little shell-shocked. I think in the second half we competed harder. We settled down a bit and played more like ourselves."
Brandon Jennings:
"I feel like we need to come out with more intensity. I think we were a little nervous."
If Jennings was affected by nerves, the Bucks best hope he stays nervous.

Josh Smith:
"It felt good. The energy was high and the adrenaline was pumping, and we were able to calm down and get off to a good start."
Mike Bibby:
"They kind of played off me a little bit, so I don't think they knew if I could shoot. I was just happy they were going in."
If he keeps his eFG% above 100, I'm confident such smart-assery will be, not just tolerated, but celebrated. The two late turnovers Bibby committed suggest that he wants no part of Brandon Jennings or John Salmons pressuring the ball when its in his hands.

Mike Woodson:
"When you get ahead by so much, you kind of get lackadaisical. Basketball is a game of runs. They made a run at us. The main thing is: We withstood it."
Jamal Crawford:
"We had a great first half. The second half, we slacked off a little bit."
The flip side of that explanation is that the excellent first half was also a run rather than the sort of basketball (in a tactical rather than results sense) the Atlanta Hawks are capable of or should be expected to play on a more consistent basis.

Scott Skiles on Josh Smith's impact on the game:
"Early in the game we were letting Josh catch it where he wanted to. They threw it in to him, he backed us down and scored. We didn’t react very well, just standing around watching. He can score on almost anybody, especially smaller players."
Josh Smith on the second half:
"We definitely got away from it. We’ve got to stay with that gameplan. That’s what’s going to be successful with Bogut being absent."
Michael Cunningham provides context to the following Mike Woodson quote about the second half:
Someone asked Woody a question in which they said the second half is “indicative of our Hawks.” The question was legit but the phrasing was indelicate, and Woody didn’t much like it. "First of all, I don’t agree with you that that’s indicative of our Hawks. We’ve played solidly all year. We’ve had some close games, and when you get into playoff basketball, you can build a big lead but teams are going to make runs and you’re going to see that in the playoffs the rest of the way out.
For the record, I was not credentialed for the game. Plus, I would never say "our" Hawks. I've made my feelings about Danny Manning clear and I realize they preclude me from gaining full membership.

Cunningham on the game's flow:
...admire that display before halftime. The Hawks shared the ball. They exploited mismatches on offense. The were sharp when switching on defense. They defended with vigor.

The Hawks started doing the opposite of the many good things they did in the first half. One problem was they stopped exploiting the matchups in the post Skiles was talking about...But, to be fair, Josh and Al also didn’t respond very well when the Bucks started pushing them farther from the basket. The Hawks did try to throw it to the post a few times but the entry passes were sloppy and the Bucks kept easily poking them away. The post-ups and the passes have to be crisper.
Mike Woodson agrees, though one wishes he'd done something preventative while the obvious occurred:
"We didn't utilize them enough. We went to them a few times."
And it is, again, true that Horford did not do a good job of converting his touches into points in the second half.

More from Skiles:
"The second half, we can build on that. We played much better and looked more like ourselves.

We could have just tipped over and figured, 'Hey, they got Game 1,' and walked out of here. We'll be able to look at the tape now and contrast the first half and second half and make some adjustments, but at least feel we made the game competitive."
Skiles on his use of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute:
"Luc did a respectable job on him (Johnson). In our opinion he's one of the tougher guys to cover in the league. But one of our issues is Luc can only guard one guy. Somebody else has to deal with Josh Smith. If we put Luc on Josh, then Joe gets loose a little bit. In the Carlos-Jerry (Stackhouse)-John (Salmons) mix, we need to step up and do a good job on one of their other skilled players."
Woodson on his team's defense of Brandon Jennings:
"He (Jennings) willed them back into the game with his play. For a while we let him have his way, and then Joe (Johnson) locked in a couple possessions in a row. We got steals from that and a couple scores, and that's how we've got to play."
It's unfair to put too much of the blame for Jennings's 34-point, 25-shot on Johnson because he shouldn't be expected to stay in front of a quick point guard when he only intermittently keeps 2-guards in front of him and because he was asked so often to hand Jennings off to a bigger teammate. Still, those two good defensive possessions where Johnson forced Jennings into turnovers were far and away the exceptions. They may represent how the Hawks have "got to play" but they don't represent an especially realistic goal.

Kurt Thomas:
"We showed in the second half we can play with these guys, but we have to do it for four quarters, not for two quarters."
The Vent:
The Hawks played well enough to win, which is pretty much all I expect at this point. They only exert enough energy to get the win and not an ounce more. That's fine sometimes, but it's a recipe for disaster in the long run. The Hawks team that showed up in the first half is a team that could very well sweep the Bucks. The Hawks team that showed up in the second half is the team that will need 6 games to beat the Bucks. I'm inclined to think the second half Hawks team is the team we'll be seeing for most of this series. I'd love to be wrong about this, but deep down I don't think I am. Actually at the end of the day, the second half Hawks team is probably good enough to sweep the Bucks.
Jeff Schultz concurs and has Al Horford there to back him up:
Victory and humility can be a wonderful pairing in the playoffs.

“It’s a good thing,” Al Horford said later. “It keeps us on edge. Last year against Miami we blew them out in the first game, and I think guys got a little complacent. They won the second game and made the series tough for us.”
I have to admit the willingness to concede complacency at such moments as up 1-0 in a playoff series or up 62-40 at halftime of the first game of a playoff series is not an encouraging characteristic.

In two paragraphs, Kelly Dwyer praises the Hawks offense and contradicts basically everything I've written in two posts about the game:
The scary thing for Milwaukee is the idea that Atlanta hasn't scratched the surface. No, Bibby won't shoot 8-9 again, but the Hawks still finish games with observers wondering if they should have gone to Al Horford (15 points, five blocks) more, looked to find Josh Smith more, or run it through Jamal Crawford (17 points) more often.

This isn't to say that the Hawks were making mistakes with their possessions, far from it. It's just that this team is so loaded, you feel as if they're able to coast, skimming the best from the rotation and still winning by double-figures.
At Brew Hoop, Frank Madden details Atlanta's strong start:
Atlanta came out looking bigger, quicker, and flat-out better, blitzing the flat-footed Bucks 34-17 in the first en route to a 22-point halftime lead that the Bucks couldn't overcome. Behind a fearless 34-point effort from Brandon Jennings, the Bucks gave the Hawks a run the second half and at least salvaged their dignity going into game two, but they also got clear confirmation of what their up against: a damn good Hawks team.

Admittedly, it wasn't an immediate beatdown--the teams split the first 12 points of the game. But Atlanta then went on a 26-6 run that featured a whole lot of Josh Smith and Al Horford dunking, blocking and generally dominating the Bucks' frontline. We knew this could happen, but I guess I didn't expect it to happen so quickly. The pair combined for a modest 27 overall, but they set the tone early with 16 of the Hawks' 34 in the opening period.
At Bucksketball, Jeremy analyzes the long game:
Look, I’d like the Bucks to win this series or even just a couple games as much as the next person, but it’s important to look at the bigger picture here. The most important thing about getting to the playoffs this season was so the younger players, namely Jennings, could get the feel for it and even more important, a hunger for more. What would serve as a better motivator this off-season for him and the rest of the younger Bucks players than this taste of the post-season spotlight? Next season, the Bucks should then come back stronger with a group that’s been working and now has post-season experience. By next October, Milwaukee should be ready to strive to surpass the semi-lofty expectations sure to be placed on them next season.

And it all starts here.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Atlanta Hawks 102 Milwaukee Bucks 92

Boxscore

Team Poss Off Eff eFG% FT Rate OR% TO%
MIL 86
1.07
48.8 14.6
27.5 16.3
ATL 87 1.172 57.9
18.4
31.4
14.9

It's not a satisfying victory with the 62-point (+22) first half turning into a 40-point (-12) second half as the team showed, early evidence to the contrary, that they don't really intend to attack or simply are not capable of attacking a short-handed opponent's obvious defensive weaknesses for an entire game.

The Bucks opened the game with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on Joe Johnson and Carlos Delfino on Josh Smith. The Hawks responded by getting the ball to Josh Smith in the post, pushing the ball off of both Milwaukee misses and turnovers, and using Al Horford on the pick-and-pop rather than in the post against Kurt Thomas. It all worked beautifully.

Outside of Brandon Jennings, nothing worked for Milwaukee offensively in the first half but the Bucks, reduced to one viable offensive option, utilized it relentlessly* in the second half whereas the Hawks, who displayed a surfeit of viable offensive options in the first half, forswore them all in order to fall back on the worst of their habits. Too much of the third and fourth quarters were given over to four Hawks watching Joe Johnson or Jamal Crawford dribble until one took a contested** jump shot or turned the ball over. The duo needed 15 field goal and 6 free throw attempts (all of the latter courtesy of Crawford) to score 19 second half points and committed 3 turnovers while earning 4 assists. Josh Smith had 12 points and 4 assists with 10:04 left in the third quarter. He would not add to either tally, missing one field goal and two free throw attempts in the remainder of the game.

*At least until Scott Skiles sat Jennings for a little more than four minutes from the 35.6 second mark of the third quarter.

**Often, in Johnson's case and courtesy of Mbah a Moute, an extremely well-contested shot.

In the second half, the Hawks (mostly) ignored Josh Smith in the post against Delfino or Ersan Ilyasova or Jerry Stackhouse. They forced an isolated Al Horford to try to score against Kurt Thomas in the post. Horford compounded the problem by missing a handful of good looks when the Hawks did get him the ball in the post with Ilyasova on him. With Milwaukee missing fewer shots and turning the ball over less often, Atlanta had fewer transition opportunities. Most inexplicably, the Hawks, who had dominated the first half in large part because of the superior skill, size, and athleticism of their starting frontcourt, matched the Bucks in going small and played four guards for more than four minutes, a decision which only accentuated the shift to a perimeter-oriented offense while also removing Atlanta's best defenders from the game.

Despite all the sub-optimal decisions in the second half and because of the glorious first half performance from the home team, Milwaukee never got closer than seven in the second half. Though Milwaukee's guards had little difficulty getting past their Atlanta counterparts*, they (the brilliant Jennings excepted) struggled to finish once they reached Smith or Horford or even Zaza Pachulia. The Hawks are simply better than this weakened Bucks team and it appears it will take both an above average performance from Milwaukee and a simultaneous below average performance from the Hawks for a period of time longer than a half for the Bucks to win a game, at least in Atlanta.

*Joe Johnson was repeatedly beaten off the dribble even though the two good defensive possessions he played in the third quarter drew far more attention from the broadcast team. Not that it's his fault he's asked to do something (keep Brandon Jennings in front of him) he can't. But he also can't keep John Salmons or Luke Ridnour in front of him.

And there was more good than bad* from the Hawks in this game even if the timing of the bad compared to the good did nothing to dissuade one of many of the doubts regular watching of this team engenders.

*Obviously so, they won by 10 points you foul-tempered sod.

Quotes, Notes, and Links to follow in the morning...