Quotes, Notes, and Links: Orlando Magic 114 Atlanta Hawks 71

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

Stan Van Gundy:

"I think the challenge is to not get carried away with the score. It was just one of those nights where everything snowballed. It's one game, so we really have to get our minds focused on what we need to do in Game 2. I think our defense in particular can be much better than it was tonight."

Mike Woodson:

"I wish I knew. Your guess is as good as mine. We competed and came out ready to play, but had nothing the rest of the way. We have just got to go back and regroup."

I knew. I didn't guess. This is not encouraging.

Woodson:

"We didn’t play Atlanta Hawks basketball."

You sure? This is the fourth time this exact same game has been played against the Magic this season. This Atlanta Hawks basketball every bit as much as coming from 3-2 down against the Milwaukee Bucks to prove everyone wrong is Atlanta Hawks basketball.

Full credit due Orlando Magic basketball (est. 2007) and its emphasis on team defense and ruthless shot selection.

Al Horford:

"It’s one loss."

Jamal Crawford:

"It’s just one game in a series."

Joe Johnson:

"It’s a long series. Anything is possible. We just need to look at the tape and make adjustments."

Apparently it's seventh loss in eight games against Orlando, five of them blowout losses, that gets this team's attention.

Mike Woodson:

"We haven’t had many games where Jamal, Joe, and Bibby just couldn’t make shots. It puts too much pressure on you."

Pressure being, in this case, having to figure out an offense that doesn't rely on taking the exact type of shots the other team wants you to take.

Josh Smith:

"We don’t get discouraged. We are a team that perseveres and plays hard. We just have to play better on the defensive end and make it hard for them to score."

Maybe you (the team, the organization, not just Josh Smith) should get discouraged. It might lead to an honest self-assessment.

Witness to the post-game quotes, Michael Cunningham, puts them in context:

There wasn’t much conviction behind their words. But what else can they say? That they don’t have the depth of personnel to deal with both Dwight and the Magic’s skilled perimeter players? That they can’t run an offense with nearly the same precision, speed and effectiveness as the Magic?

Al Horford on the quick hook he got from the head coach:

"That’s the coach’s plan. He felt Jason and Zaza in would be better. I have to deal with that."

Woodson's explanation:

"I didn’t think that hurt us. That was towards the latter part of the first quarter. We came in with Jason and Jason picked up a few fouls, but I didn’t want Al going through the quarter with two fouls and now he’s got to be looking over his shoulder going into the second quarter. I thought we played it right. That had nothing to do with second quarter letdown."

It's pathological this fear of future foul trouble. Of all the things Mike Woodson could have learned from Larry Brown, he picks up this annoying tick and runs with it?

Peachtree Hoops takes issue with Mike Woodson's early deployment of Jason Collins:

I do not want to blame all 43 or even 20 of those points on Woody, but he came into this game scared, and I have never seen an underdog team on the road win a game where the coach's strategy was based in fear. Bringing Jason Collins off the bench to "take up fouls" is not a move that wins game, it is a move of survival, and the Hawks are not winning a game of survival.

The Human Highlights Blog at Peachtree Hoops on The Horford Treatement Supreme:

It was also Horford who, with six minutes left in the first quarter, was taken from the game in favor of Jason Collins. Woodson said after the game that it was to "use up fouls" and so Horford wouldn't pick up that second foul. This was the most successful strategy of the night, as Horford never did pick up a second foul.

Usually I envy Chris Sheridan's full-time gig (save the travel required), this morning I merely envy his innocence. There are things I wish I didn't know:

Awfully strange to see Mike Woodson pull one of his two All-Stars, Al Horford, early in the first quarter after he picked up his first foul.

Vince Carter on Dwight Howard:

"That was the most important thing for Dwight --- be patient, don't try to prove the world wrong or whatever."

Wait, not aiming to prove the world wrong might lead to consistent execution? Sounds like you're taking a chance on getting discouraged, Vince.

Jameer Nelson wins the Sportsmanship Award:

"It wasn't easy at all. Don't be confused by the score. They're a tough team and we know they're going to bring it harder and probably play better next game."

HawkStr8Talk:

Charles Barkley said it best - he's disappointed in Mike Woodson's post game comments. He was too calm and he's talking about the fact that we missed too many shots we normally make (which is WRONG - we miss jump shots all the time) and that's not Atlanta Hawk basketball, but no mention about the 114 points we gave up. This from our DEFENSIVE guru coach.

and

I would like to mention again that once the Hawks know they are going to lose - they lose. Make that 13 of 14 games lost in the playoffs over the past 3 years by more than 10 pts. Average pt difference is over 20pts.

The Vent:

Aside from getting their asses kicked by 40+ points, they also failed to show up and face the media. They sent Za Za. Really????? Joe Johnson makes four times as much money as Za Za and plays about four times as many minutes, yet he couldn't come face the media. There's no accountability by anyone on the team which is one of the many reasons they can lose to the Magic by 40 points in a conference semifinal game. Neither Joe, Josh, Al, Mike, or Jamal had the balls to stand up and account for this ass whipping. If they aren't mentally tough enough to take a handful of questions that they can easily bullshit their way through, they probably aren't mentally tough enough to win this series.

Mark Bradley:

It’s no easy feat to trail a Round 2 playoff game by 41 points having played only 36 minutes, but the proud conquerors of Milwaukee managed it. They were down 85-44 after three quarters. And I say it again: This is why so few folks outside Atlanta, and many folks in Atlanta, don’t take seriously a team that won 53 games this season and has survived a Game 7 in each of the two springs.

Charley Rosen:

As ever, after running a paltry few curls off weak-side screens to start the game, the Hawks' offense quickly devolved into a perpetual series of one-on-one adventures. Discounting what occurred in the dregs of garbage time, the Hawks collectively indulged in 31 isos that produced a mere 14 points. Their two main individualistic scorers, Joe Johnson and Crawford, combined to shoot an embarrassing 5 for 22.

The most telling indication of their limited offensive game plan is a comparison of assists — 23 for Orlando against only 12 for Atlanta.

Josh Smith led the Hawks with 14 points on 7-for-14 shooting. He ran, jumped, dunked, and once again wowed everybody with his incandescent athleticism. But Smith also committed several silly fouls, missed all four of his attempted jumpers, and played like an undisciplined schoolyard all-star.

Al Horford struggled to get off a decent shot against the bigger, stronger Howard, and was virtually helpless on defense. Which was precisely the same shortcoming that plagued his teammates on the uphill end of the court — the middle was open, the perimeter was unguarded, and defenders avoided dribble penetrators as if they were lepers.

Lepers.

Kurt Helin at Pro Basketball Talk:

Game two is not going to be exactly like this. The Hawks cannot play this bad again. But in their regular season matchups less severe versions of this same scenario played out. The Magic have a starting five that can best the Hawks starting five, and the Magic bench blows Atlanta out of the water. The Magic have matchup advantages they can easily exploit, while Howard takes away the easy baskets the Hawks try to get off their mismatches.

Eric Freeman:

The Hawks were so bad that I'm not even going to list any individual stats. They were dismantled so thoroughly that the usual cliches about soul-searching and going back to the drawing board don't seem to apply here. In a sense, the Magic blew up the drawing board, proving that they're a much better team that can wreck the Hawks when focused. Atlanta can still make a few games competitive, but it seems extremely unlikely that this series will go more than five games.

Ben Q. Rock has an excellent recap, I recommend reading the whole thing. This excerpt, though brief, is a pretty good summation of the defensive problems:

Orlando's ball movement put pressure on Atlanta to rotate and recover, which it simply couldn't do.

Same goes for Eddy Rivera's recap at Magic Basketball:

To annihilate is to destroy completely.

Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus:

Nothing they did worked on either end, and it's hard to see how a strategic tweak or two is going to change things. The Hawks need to find again what worked for them throughout the regular season. Even if they do that, however, it may not be enough because this matchup is so favorable for Orlando.

Sekou Smith:

The Hawks spent so much time worrying with Howard that they didn’t account for all the work he did setting up his teammates. His was usually the first pass in a series of several that resulted in quality open shots for the Magic, who shot 52 percent from the floor. Howard was as effective as he’s been in any game during these playoffs, going for 21 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks. Howard also stayed out of foul trouble early while also tagging the Hawks with severe foul complications early.

If the Hawks’ master plan was to unleash Jason Collins on Howard, it didn’t work either. That failed attempt at getting physical with Howard backfired in the worst way.

At Soaring Down South, Kris Willis did a more thorough job of describing what worked early for the Hawks than did I:

How good was that first quarter? Good enough to have me believing that the Hawks could in fact make this a series. Their was ample ball movement with everyone touching the ball. Josh Smith got off to a decent start offensively despite picking up two fouls. Plus Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby neither played very well offensively. You had to like the position the Hawks were in.

Defensively they were sending double teams at Dwight Howard after he put the ball on the floor and were rotating out to shooters enough to cause the Magic some problems. The Magic made enough shots to maintain the first quarter lead but the Hawks were able to cause some turnovers and turn them into fast break points.

Both Teams Played Hard:

Orlando Magic 114 Atlanta Hawks 71

Boxscore

Game 1	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	92	0.772	35.8	16	20.4	17.4
ORL	91	1.253	57.7	20.2	35.9	14.3

And through five meetings this season...

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	88.7	0.903	42	15.7	16.7	14.6
ORL	88.5	1.146	53.8	22.6	26.8	14.2

I still contend that scoring against Orlando is the real challenge for the Hawks (The Hawks were down 20 at the half despite allowing 53 points on 49 possessions. Not a great performance, but below both Orlando's season average for offensive efficiency and almost exactly Atlanta's season average for defensive efficiency.) but it I suspect it would be largely self-serving to elevate one problem above all the others the Hawks put on display in Orlando tonight.

Though the Hawks got off to a decent start, it wasn't an especially convincing one. Not least of which because Mike Woodson removed Al Horford, fresh off a dominating Game 7 performance against the Bucks and arguably Atlanta's best player for the enitrety of the first-round series, just 5:44 into the game because...he had one foul?

Sort of. Woodson was saving Horford to play against Marcin Gortat when Gortat replaced Howard on the court and Horford, presumably, couldn't do that if he picked up a second foul. Somewhat predictably, Stan Van Gundy countered this strategic innovation by leaving his best player in the game against, first, Atlanta's third-string center*, then the backup center. Woodson eventually realized that Howard wasn't headed to the bench anytime soon and put Horford back in with 8:55 left in the second quarter. That's 9 minutes and 41 seconds of the first 15 minutes and 5 seconds of the game that Al Horford spent on the bench as his coach, in an effort to create a future mis-match that didn't materialize until Orlando had a 16-point lead, gifted his opponent's best player a mis-match in the present. It was surely the nadir of The Horford Treatment and, perhaps, a mis-calculation so severe as to kill off the misguided attempt at maintaining control for good.

*Jason Collins committed two fouls in his first 15 seconds on the court. It took him 41 seconds to miss a layup. In an upset, he scored before he committed an offensive foul.

The Magic were only +6 while Horford sat but the message Woodson sent was clear: we can't beat Orlando straight up. I don't necessarily disagree with that sentiment but the solution can't be to play Al Horford less, play Jason Collins more, and continue to take the same low-percentage shots that led to the Hawks scoring less than a point per possession against the Magic in the regular season.

Yes, the Hawks led 20-18 with 2:36 left in the first quarter, trailed by just two at the end of the first quarter, and were tied at 27 with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. But they took 27 shots to get those 27 points, with 10 of them being the dreaded (by Hawks partisans, not the participants themselves...nor the Magic for that matter) long-two point jumpers, with just two three-point attempts (and one those Joe Johnson's half-court heave at the end of the first quarter), and two free throw attempts.

By the time Mike Woodson threw in the towel (2:41 left in the third, Hawks down 76-44), the Hawks had attempted 23 long two-point jumpers, 31 shots fifteen feet and in, 7 three-pointers, and 7 free throws. Orlando had to be thrilled (if not surprised by) their defensive execution and that the Hawks limited their adjustments to a convoluted rotation gambit and left their offensive game plan unchanged.

It was a team-wide failure. Jamal Crawford attempted six long two-pointers. Joe Johnson attempted four. So did Al Horford. So did Marvin Williams. So did Josh Smith, despite being 7-10 (plus a missed free throw attempt) at the rim and being the closest thing the Hawks had to a demonstrably promising offensive option when he went to the basket. Mike Bibby took three long two-pointers. Zaza Pachulia got one up in the second quarter. Mo Evans attempted a couple in garbage time, presumably in an attempt to get back in the rotation.

The Hawks showed no indication that they thought this could be a problem. Even as Orlando out-scored them 60-21 across the second and third quarters. Number of two-point jump shots the Magic attempted between 16 and 23 feet in those two quarters: four. Sure, Orlando's making an effort (both physically and mentally) to force the Hawks into these shots but the Hawks appear awfully eager to take them. If they continue to indulge themselves thusly, they'll continue to lose to the Magic.

They probably won't lose by 43 again. That took a perfect storm of poor shot selection, poor shot making, poor rebounding, an unusual number of turnovers, and the mid-game deflation that occurs when the first option isn't working and you know no second option exists nor is one likely to be created on the spot.

Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (0-0) @ Orlando Magic (0-0)

TIP-OFF: 8pm (EDT)

TELEVISION: TNT

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Magic

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

ORLANDO INJURY REPORT: Mickael Pietrus (sprained left ankle) is expected to play.

BY THE NUMBERS

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	88.6	1.132	50.4	21.3	28.6	13.4
ORL (def)	90.2	1.047	47.7	27.5	22.7	14.2

Season	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	88.6	1.08	49.4	27.7	27.3	15.4
ORL (off)	90.2	1.133	53.5	25	24.6	15.6

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	85.6	1.094	48.2	20.1	33.1	14.2
ORL (def)	84.1	0.964	47.7	36.2	23	18.2

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	85.6	1.049	46.5	25	27.9	14.5
ORL (off)	84.1	1.129	52.2	33.5	24.8	15.4

Head-to-Head	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	87.9	0.935	43.6	15.6	15.7	13.9
ORL	87.9	1.119	52.8	23.2	24.5	14.2

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Orlando -9, 191.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Magic Basketball, Orlando Pinstriped Post, Orlando Magic Daily

PREVIOUSLY...the Orlando Magic won three of four regular season meetings against the Atlanta Hawks.

Orlando dominated the season series, in part, by attempting many more three-pointers and free throws and many fewer long two-point jump shots than Atlanta.

Despite giving a representative defensive effort against Orlando in the regular season, discussion prior to this series has focused on Atlanta's defense rather than their struggles to score against the Magic.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

SI.com: Robson: Hawks/Magic Preview

Britt Robson:

The Magic, NBA finalists last season, are hungry and dedicated to taking the final step and earning a ring. The Hawks have to hope that Orlando's competitive edge has been dulled by its first-round sweep, Atlanta's lackluster showing against Milwaukee and the Magic's looking ahead to a titanic series with Cleveland. They also need monster games, if not entire series, from Smith and Johnson, and more frustration between Howard and the refs over borderline calls that put him on the sidelines. The Hawks should snatch at least one game where they convert Orlando turnovers into transition points and get balanced scoring from the perimeter and the paint. Maybe even two. Magic in five.

Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic Talk Hawks Defense...Only

Yesterday, Mike Woodson on defending Dwight Howard:

"We still haven’t figured out what we are going to do yet as far as double [team] him or play him straight-up. That is something I will sleep on tonight and make the final decision [Tuesday]."

Michael Cunningham fired up the Synergy Sports console and commenced to study:

In the four games against the Hawks, Howard attempted to score 34 times on post-ups against Horford. The Hawks sent a second defender before Howard made his move on 10 of those possessions.

When Howard was alone vs. Horford, the Magic center scored 16 points on 24 possessions (five field goals and six free throws). Howard turned the ball over four times.

That’s excellent defense by Horford, but it's even better when he gets help. The Hawks forced nine turnovers on those 10 possessions (Howard scored the one time he got off a shot).

Josh Smith on Dwight Howard, being priceless:

"I think that mentally he let a lot of things take him out of his game in the last series. That's why he wasn't that effective. If we try to do the same things, I think that we'll be OK."

Howard:

"We've had a long time to prepare for just about everything."

Defending Howard is only the start of defending the Magic. The other 11 Orlando players made 53.2% of their two-point attempts in the four games against the Hawks this season.

Orlando plays to Atlanta's defensive weaknesses by making them defend four spots at the perimeter, hence the big nights from Anthony Johnson, Jason Williams, Ryan Anderson, and Matt Barnes.

Jameer Nelson does not sound concerned about the Hawks cross-matching on him with Joe Johnson:

"It opens up things for other guys as well. He’s a great defender, I think. When he uses size, I just use my quickness against him and try to make plays. If you put a 6-7 guy on me, you’re leaving [Mike] Bibby on one of our 6-7 guys. It’s like a Catch-22."

Michael Cunningham also studied how the Magic created their three-point shots against the Hawks this season:

It was crazy to see how many different ways the Magic got open 3-pointers . They used ball screens, pin-down screens, hand-offs, drive-and-kicks, pick-and-pops, and simple (but fast) ball reversals. There’s no hesitation. The Magic are always looking for 3. They are ready to fire when they get space and it doesn’t seem to matter if they are cold or hot for the game. The Magic don’t even need to involve Dwight in all that action because they are so good at moving the ball. It’s not just the guards, either–forwards Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson get in on it, too. When Jameer Nelson came back to play in the last game against the Hawks he added yet another element with his quickness and savvy.

Before the Hawks even begin to think about defending Dwight, they have to deal with all that going on at the 3-point line. It takes great awareness to do it and, well, I don’t have to tell you that’s not always been a strong suit for the Hawks.

Perhaps the most disheartening thing about the three lopsided losses* the Hawks suffered this season is that Orlando didn't shoot the three often or well by their standards.

Orlando	3PTFG%	3PTA/FGA
vs. ATL	34	33.7
vs. NBA	37.7	35.1

*and even the narrowness of the win

Mike Woodson:

"We can’t get discouraged if they make some threes. I’ve watched teams that play them, and they start bombing threes and then you get away from your original gameplan. Yeah, we are going to have to make adjustments on the fly. But I don’t want our guys to get discouraged because they make threes. We make threes [too]. It goes both ways."

I don't think it's the threes that are the issue. In fact, I believe it would be better for the Hawks to match the Magic three-point attempt for three-point attempt rather than doubling them up on long two-pointers. Of course, Orlando will try to prevent that so it's easier said* than done.

*Probably unlikely to be said, also.

But, the dominance of Orlando's defense against Atlanta's offense appears not to be an issue of interest on the eve of the series. Seriously, Orlando scored 113.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. The Hawks allowed 108.3 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. Orlando scored 111.9 points per 100 possessions in the four games against the Hawks. There's certainly no reason for the Hawks not to try and do better but they didn't defend Orlando badly (by their standards) while losing three of four games.

Conversely, the Hawks scored 113.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. The Magic allowed 105.1 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. The Hawks scored 93.5 points per 100 possessions in the four games against Orlando. There's massive room (and need) for improvement when the Hawks have the ball.

Granted, the Hawks held Orlando below 1 point per possession in their March 24th victory and that's the only recent example the Hawks have of beating Orlando. However, Orlando held the Hawks below 1 point per possession each time they played this season. I don't think it's realistic for the Hawks, against whom, it must be remembered, Milwaukee surpassed their season offensive efficiency average in 3 of 7 playoff games, to hold Orlando to 88% of their season offensive efficiency average often enough to win a seven-game playoff series.

The Hawks are going to have to find easier ways to score against the Magic to compete in this series. If they have any new and different ideas about how to accomplish that, they're keeping them quiet.

NBA.com: Sekou Smith's Hangtime Podcast

Eleven-and-one-half minutes of Hawks/Magic discussion. Just five-and-a-half minutes on Kobe Bryant being perhaps too accommodating.

Mickael Pietrus To Play Tonight In Game 1

As reported in The Orlando Sentinel's Magic Basketblog, Pietrus:

"Yes, I’m playing."

Case closed.

Mike Woodson on Using Jason Collins Against Dwight Howard

Josh Robbins reports from Atlanta (HT: Orlando Pinstriped Post) as Mike Woodson provides specificity and transparency that are hallmarks of his interactions with media:

"He’ll be a big body that will come into play along with Zaza in this series for sure. That’s kind of what we brought him in for. So, depending on how the foul situation goes, yes, he will play a role having to guard Howard."

It's been done. It didn't help. Two fouls and a turnover in 1:47. During part of a 15-2 Orlando run.

I don't think that excluding Jason Collins entirely from the action* on March 24th is the reason the Hawks but I don't think it hurt.

*And limiting Mario West to two appearances, the first lasting 11 seconds and the second 16 seconds.

Discussing the Series With Eddy Rivera of Magic Basketball

I answered some questions about the Atlanta Hawks in general and the series in particular for Eddy Rivera at the newest addition to The TrueHoop Network: Magic Basketball.

Eddy was kind of enough to do the same for me, here.

LaGree: Some Hawks fans, in their frustration with long-term problems going unaddressed, look enviously at the Magic as an organization that's implementing a sensible and successful plan from top to bottom. I suspect, though, that are some things about the Magic that frustrate and irritate their fans. Am I right about that? If so, what are these irritants?

Rivera: Great question.

[ed. -- Great opening to an answer.]

Dwight Howard's run-ins with the officials has always seemed to irritate the fans. That's probably been the main irritant. Many people wish Howard gets more respect from the referees but at the same time, they want to him to stop complaining so much and by extension, avoid getting technical fouls as a result of his excessive verbal theatrics. The two things go hand-in-hand, most likely. Maybe if Howard didn't gripe so much with the refs, maybe more calls would go his way. Who knows. Nevertheless, it's an interesting subplot that's been developing for the past couple of years.

LaGree: Charlotte got to the line a lot in the first-round series. Typically, that's hard to do against the Magic. How did Charlotte do it and is it in any way plausible for the 23rd-ranked team in FT Rate to replicate their success?

Rivera: Well, the Charlotte Bobcats got to the free-throw line a lot because they had no choice. There was no way the Bobcats were going to out-shoot the Magic because that's not their game, and head coach Larry Brown admitted it as much, so the next best thing for them to do was to attack the basket. And Charlotte did. Plenty of times. The Bobcats were third in the NBA during the regular season in FT Rate (.260) so the fact that they were able to continue that trend in the playoffs (.259) should have came to no surprise. That was simply a part of Charlotte's DNA offensively.

Can the Atlanta Hawks replicate their success? Sure, they can. Will they? I don't know. Like anything in life, it's tough to break out of habits so the Hawks would have to openly change how they operate on offense. If there's one thing Atlanta has gotten into a trap of, it's settling for jumpshots because they are wary of Dwight Howard's presence in the lane. It's understandable, but if the Hawks want any chance of winning the series, they have to copy part of the Bobcats' blueprint. It's a must. Atlanta needs to exhibit the same fearlessness Charlotte displayed, by attacking the basket consistently.

LaGree: Orlando didn't shoot the three especially often or well against the Hawks in the four regular season meetings. Is it possible the Hawks, despite their struggles against the Magic, haven't felt the full impact of Orlando's offense?

Rivera: I think the Hawks have felt the full impact of the Magic's offense this year, just not on a consistent basis. On January 9, Orlando went 12-of-28 from three-point range (42.9%) and scored 113 points. That was without Vince Carter or with a healthy Jameer Nelson, too. In their other meetings, yeah, the Magic shot below their average beyond the arc. It'll be interesting to see if that trend continues, actually.

LaGree: Which matchups (if any) cause concern for the Magic?

Rivera: Josh Smith could pose a problem for Rashard Lewis -- who could forget his game-winning dunk in late March? -- when he's on offense, especially if he's able to get out in transition and use his supreme athleticism to his advantage. That's about it, though. Nelson, although undersized, has the strength to deal with Bibby. Orlando will have multiple bodies to send at Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, and Marvin Williams. And then there's Howard, who not only will defend Al Horford but also anchor the Magic defense.

Hoopinion, Lowering the Bar For Graphic Design Since 2005

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Long Two-Point Jumpers As Team Identity

The Orlando Magic attempt the fewest long* two-point jumpers in the NBA: 12.6 per game. The Houston Rockets attempt the second-fewest: 15.9 per game (26% more than the Magic). The Atlanta Hawks attempt 21.8 per game. The Hawks make those shots a little less often than the league average. Orlando is 10th in the league in FG% in this shot category.

*16-23 feet

Only Indiana and Minnesota saw* their opponents attempt more long two-point jump shots than did the Magic. Orlando's opponents attempted 22.4 two-point jump shots from at least 16 feet per game this season and they made them one full percentage point less often than the league average.

*I'd say "forced" but Indiana and Minnesota didn't stop their opponents from making long two-point jumpers very well.

Orlando's offense is designed to forgo this type of shot (though they can make it when forced to settle for it) and their defense is designed to force this type of shot. The Magic have successfully implemented both parts of that strategy in the four games against the Hawks (who, it must be said, appear to have no strong inclination to avoid this type of shot). Head-to-head, Atlanta's taken 94 long two-point jump shots and made 34% of them. Orlando's taken 46 long two-point jump shots and made 45.6% of them.

In the other 78 regular season games, the Hawks took 26.3% of their field goal attempts between 16 and 23 feet. Against Orlando, those shots accounted for 29.4% of their field goal attempts. Josh Smith took 6.25% of the long two-point jumpers he attempted on the season in the four games against Orlando. He made 4 of 15 against the Magic. In the three losses, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford were a combined 3-22 from 16 to 23 feet. In the March 24th win, Johnson and Crawford improved to 4-14 from 16 to 23 feet. The Hawks won that game despite averaging less than one point per possession.

It's simplistic to look just a shot location for an explanation of the Magic's mastery of the Hawks this season (+16.5 points per game, +18.4 points per 100 possessions) but, were one forced to guess, in the absence of all other information, which team was so dominant head-to-head the safe choice would surely be the team that attempted 8 more three-pointers, 6-and-a-half more free throws, and 12 fewer long two-point jumpers per game.

The Magic have a clear plan for where and how to attack a defense and where to force an offense to operate. The Hawks, too often, appear not even to remember what worked or didn't work early in the game (or on the previous play) and accept the inevitability of mis-matches beneficial to the opposing offense.

Looking Back At the Regular Season Meetings Bewteen the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic dominated the Atlanta Hawks in their head-to-head meetings this season. Even in their lone victory, the Hawks demonstrated an inability either to make a high percentage of their shots or rebound their misses at a competitive rate.

On the defensive end, the Hawks have failed to take advantage of Orlando's relatively poor three-point shooting (in head-to-head play) by letting the Magic make 53.7% of their two-point attempts. And that's including the 21-51 shooting performance inside the arc by Orlando in the two-point win the Hawks eked out at home.

Here are the team totals from the four regular season meetings:

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	87.9	0.935	43.6	15.6	15.7	13.9
ORL	87.9	1.119	52.8	23.2	24.5	14.2

That's sixteen quarters worth of offensive production on par with what Milwaukee managed in Game 7.

Here are some excerpts from the recaps of each game...

The Magic beat the Hawks 93-76 on November 26th in Atlanta:

The problem with the offense in the second half* was not so much the jump shots or not getting to the free throw line. The Hawks didn't get to the free throw line and took plenty of jump shots in their successful first half. The problem was that the Hawks stopped creating jump shots for each other, took marginally more difficult jump shots themselves, missed a disproportionate number of those jump shots, and didn't get any (well, 4 of 31) offensive rebounds. Of the eleven field goals that the Hawks made in the second half, six earned assists. The Hawks had six assists in each of the first two quarters. The lack of ball movement in the second half even made not turning the ball over (just three in forty-one second half possessions) seem a dubious achievement.

*I recognize that it's not entirely accurate to say "the second half" as the Hawks scored six points on their first three possessions of the third quarter. It's the rest of the second half, the 19 points the Hawks scored on the remaining 38 possessions that troubles.

On January 9th, the Hawks traveled to Orlando. They trailed the Magic by a half-game. The winner of the game would be in first place in the Southeast Division. The Magic won 113-81:

It's unrealistic to expect players, even players as good as Smith and Johnson, to play well 82 times a season. There's no shame in having a bad game. A visibly bad attitude is harder to excuse but a simple demonstration of leadership from the head coach could nip such emotional and psychological weakness in the bud.

On the other hand, there's Al Horford. One would be hard-pressed to make the argument that he's the Hawks' best player but the Hawks are at their best when Horford is the team's most representative player. He always wants to play fast (in an aggressive rather than a hurried sense), he always plays hard, he's efficient both in getting his own points (when he gets the opportunity) and in creating opportunities for his teammates.

Both Johnson and Smith spent the night looking petulant and put-upon but neither had an assignment nearly as weighty as Horford's against Dwight Howard. Horford scored his team-leading 14 points on just 7 shots while playing 18:29 of his 25:43 directly against Howard. A higher percentage of Horford's court time would have been spent playing against Howard had Horford not drawn Howard's 3rd foul* late in the second quarter.

*And a technical on the frustrated Howard. Al Horford does a better job of getting Joe Johnson free throw attempts than Joe Johnson does.

Three weeks later, the Hawks returned to Orlando for a 104-86 thumping:

The Hawks are -67 in three games against Orlando this year. They're +293 in 43 games against the rest of the league. Orlando's a good team. They're also a terrible matchup for the Hawks. Last night's loss drove that home. The Hawks weren't out-shot from beyond the three-point line nor were they killed on the offensive glass and still they couldn't hang with Orlando for 48 minutes. Two of the three things that doomed the Hawks in their first two games against Orlando were, if not fixed, neutralized for a night. That suggests that the fundamental problem the Hawks face against the Magic is making shots.

Atlanta has shot 42.9, 42.3, and 43.8 eFG% in the three games against Orlando and there simply aren't enough extra possessions to be gained by not turning the ball over or grabbing offensive rebounds (especially because Orlando does a great job of negating the latter) to overcome that unless you're an elite defensive team and the Hawks are not.

That the essential problem for the Hawks against Orlando in the first two games was getting the ball in the basket, it's curious that the most significant change Mike Woodson made in the third game was to get Jason Collins and Mario West in the game as soon as possible at the expense of Zaza Pachulia and Jeff Teague, especially considering the contributions Pachulia and Teague made the night before to help defeat Boston. I don't believe that difference between Pachulia/Teague and Collins/West is so great as to have changed the outcome of last night's game but there's no evidence Collins and West made a positive difference.

On March 24th, in Philips Arena, the Hawks won 86-84 to break their six-game losing streak against the Magic:

It wasn't pretty but I think we learned a couple of things about how the Hawks could beat the Magic in a game that doesn't turn on JJ Redick missing a wide-open corner three just before Josh Smith makes a contested 20-footer as the shot clock expires or Joe Johnson not getting called for traveling, thus letting his embarrassing effort at a game-winner stand so Josh Smith could take advantage of a napping Rashard Lewis to slam home the miss at the buzzer.

First, the Hawks have to make their threes, and, because Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford (28 points on 31 shots) will likely be suckered into contested two-point jump shots (14 combined last night, they each made two) by Orlando's defense, that means Mike Bibby and Maurice Evans have to make their threes. They made six of eight last night. Neither can create their own shot so credit to Josh Smith, Johnson, and Crawford who each assisted on two three-pointers made by Bibby or Evans.

Second, the Hawks have to take advantage of as many transition opportunities as possible. There won't be many. Orlando simply won't allow it. But every offensive possession that doesn't come against a set Orlando defense is to Atlanta's advantage. 14 fast break points isn't a lot but when you can't seem to break 86 against a certain opponent, every little bit helps.

...

Finally, the changes the Hawks made both to when and from where they doubled Dwight Howard early in the game, slowed Orlando's ball movement. They didn't keep up with this half-court run-and-jump as the game carried on, so it remains to be seen if the change is a sustainable improvement or just reliant on the element of surprise.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 95 Milwaukee Bucks 74

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

Mike Woodson:

"A lot of you wrote us off and it’s a shame because, if you understand playoff basketball, anything is possible. These guys didn’t stop believing after that Game 5."

Josh Smith:

"I guess we like a good challenge."

Mike Bibby:

"We never give up. We kept fighting. Everybody counted us out except us."

Alternately...Bibby:

"We kind of took them too easy coming in with the first two games. They played hard and they had us on our heels."

Brandon Jennings:

"I think we did the best we could without [Bogut]. I think we gave Atlanta all we could."

Mike Woodson:

"As we move forward, it has got to stay consistent as far as how we defend and rebound. The only way we got out of this series is defend. We did that in Milwaukee, holding them to 69 points and tonight 74 points. It was our defense that came through for us in this series."

The defense and rebounding the last two games actually exemplified inconsistency. The years of mediocrity are surely more representative of how this team defends and rebounds. Even the entirety of the first round series has to count for something. Case in point: for the series, the Hawks held the Bucks (without Andrew Bogut) to 98.2% of their season average* offensive efficiency. The Hawks' defense in the last two games was impressive but they're also just a week away from allowing the same, limited Bucks team to score 123 and 126 points per 100 possessions in consecutive games.

*The Bucks held the Hawks to 96.5% of their season average offensive efficiency during the series.

About that...Coach?:

"All those people that wrote us off, they don’t dribble one ball up and down that court, they don’t shoot a jump shot, they don’t rebound the ball, they don’t get defensive stops and they surely don’t coach the team. It ain’t about all these people outside our circle. Any team will say that. It’s about the people who go to battle and work in the locker room. I could care less about what you guys write or say."

HawkStr8Talk:

Sorry, but we ALL expected you to win and easily...almost as easily as any other team in the playoffs and so, we were perplexed and dismayed that a team that really didn't have enough bullets in the chamber, but somehow killed 8 players with 2.5 rounds. Maybe this is necessary for motivation, but it reeks of how the psychology of our team is focused in the wrong places. Home Court, Us Against the Press/World, Heart/Leadership, and even how good the Bucks are, which they weren't.

Woodson on Brandon Jennings:

"It’s nice to see a young guy figure it out that early."

Scott Skiles:

"If you get outrebounded by 20 or so rebounds and shoot 32%, it's going to be a tough game to win. We had our opportunity in the series to take it in the home game. They've only lost here eight times and they beat us fair and square. They earned it.

We didn't get great looks and when we did we missed them. Our low-post game - we don't have one - we were relegated to trying to find shots for each other out there and they made that difficult for us."

Luke Ridnour:

"It's tough when everything is coming from the perimeter all the time. You have to give them a lot of credit; their defense was tough. The switching, those big guys are long."

Kelly Dwyer questions the Hawks.

Atlanta Hawks 95 Milwaukee Bucks 74

Boxscore

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL	80	0.925	34.9	16.3	24	6.3
ATL	79	1.203	51.3	22.4	43.6	15.2

Al Horford was massive. 16 points (on 8 shots and 6 free throw attempts), 15 rebounds, 4 assists (against 3 turnovers), 3 blocks, outstanding defense (both inside and out), and tireless work off-the-ball to free teammates (Jamal Crawford, in particular) for open shots.

Crawford was something of a difference maker himself. The 21-point margin of victory speaks to the frequency with which Crawford converted open looks and the infrequency with which John Salmons and Brandon Jennings and Carlos Delfino and Luke Ridnour converted their open looks.

Mike Bibby deserves a healthy share of credit for making six of his twelve field goal attempts (three of five three-pointers). Even more exceptionally, he grabbed six rebounds (2 offensive), and played defense as well as could be expected. In one instance, by getting back on defense, he sufficiently slowed Jennings in transition to give Joe Johnson the opportunity for a spectacular block. When the Bucks attacked Bibby in their half-court offense, Bibby mostly maintained decent-to-good defensive position and forced players to score over him. Mostly, they failed to do so.

Josh Smith struggled with foul trouble for much of the game and his scoring numbers are inflated by virtue of him making two ill-conceived jump shots in the third quarter but he defended almost as well as Horford when on the court and, though he grabbed just five rebounds, was a key part of the team effort on the glass.

As were both Zaza Pachulia, who filled in admirably for Smith in the first half, and Marvin Williams. Williams grabbed nine rebounds (six offensive) and got a hand on several more. He struggled to knock down shots, but his consistent aggression got him to the line four times and he converted each of his foul shots.

Joe Johnson struggled to make shots as well (and, quite predictably, couldn't make up for it by getting to the line), needing 14 of them to tally 8 points, but he didn't force the issue in the fourth quarter, being content with just two field goal attempts (both of which he made) one of which came in transition.

Now, does the sound team basketball of most of the last two games portend good things for the Orlando series which begins Tuesday? I suspect not. Milwaukee shot the ball horribly. The 35-point combined margin of the final two games represents the confluence of good defense and bad shooting. Orlando were second in the league in eFG% this season. The Hawks cannot sag defensively and succeed for very long against the Magic. Al Horford, the best player in this series, will have to step up in class from Kurt Thomas to Dwight Howard. Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson will draw Josh Smith away the basket, increasing the distance he'll need to travel to provide help defense. Jameer Nelson figures to finish more consistently than Brandon Jennings, and Vince Carter, diminished by age though he is, is better than John Salmons.

The Hawks face a massive task. I think winning one game against Orlando is a realistic expectation. Especially if they give a performance of the quality the demonstrated in the first half of Game 1, the third quarter of Game 6, or the entirety of Game 7. Should they revert to the form they displayed in Game 3 against the Bucks against a team of Orlando's capabilities the degree of embarrassment could be exceptional.

Game Preview: Milwaukee Bucks (3-3) @ Atlanta Hawks (3-3)

TIP-OFF: 1pm (EDT)

TELEVISION: ABC

CHAT: Daily Dime Live

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Bucks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

MILWAUKEE INJURY REPORT: Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are out.

BY THE NUMBERS

88 games	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL (off)	90	1.067	48.3	18.3	26.3	14.5
ATL (def)	88.7	1.082	49.6	27.8	27.3	15.5

88 games	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL (def)	90	1.05	48.5	34.1	24.2	16.6
ATL (off)	88.7	1.131	50.4	21.2	28.4	13.4

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL (off)	86.6	1.07	48.6	20.8	28.7	15.8
ATL (def)	86.6	1.07	48.6	25.5	28.7	15.8

Playoffs	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL (def)	86.8	1.076	47.7	25.5	31.5	14
ATL (off)	86.8	1.076	47.7	19.7	31.5	14

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -9, 185 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Bucksketball, Brew Hoop

PREVIOUSLY...the Atlanta Hawks beat the Milwaukee Bucks 83-69 in Milwaukee on Friday night to extend the series to seventh game.

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 6

Recap of Milwaukee's 91-87 Games 5 win in Atlanta

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 5

Recap of Milwaukee's 111-104 victory in Game 4

Quotes, Notes, and Links from Game 4

Recap of Milwaukee's 107-89 blowout win in Game 3

Quotes, Notes, and Links about Game 3

A survey of the first 31 possessions of Game 3

The Hawks won the first two games in Atlanta and, despite the blowout loss in Game 3, maintain both a 2-1 series lead and homecourt advantage.

Recap of Atlanta's 96-86 Game 2 victory on Tuesday night.

Quotes, notes, and links from Game 2 .

How the Atlanta fast break made an impact on Game 2 in words.

How the Atlanta fast break made an impact on Game 2 in motion.

Recap of Atlanta's 102-92 Game 1 win.

Quotes, notes, and links from Game 1.

Video analysis of Game 1.

As for the regular season meeting between the two teams...

The Hawks and Bucks played three times during the regular season. In the first meeting on February 28th in Atlanta, the Hawks beat the Bucks 106-102 in overtime. From the recap:

Sitting through another 18 point fourth quarter (though at least this time against a good defensive team) makes one wonder. One wonders why Josh Smith doesn't attempt a field goal* in the fourth quarter. One wonders why, during a four minute stretch of the fourth quarter when Milwaukee goes to a four-guard lineup meaning either Carlos Delfino or Jerry Stackhouse is guarding Smith, Smith never once touches the ball in the post.

One wonders if it's because Smith and Horford (and, to a lesser extent, Marvin Williams**) are responsible for rebounding, defense, and both creating and finishing transition opportunities so that Johnson, Bibby, and Crawford can play poor defense and take long jump shots (30 field attempts from beyond 16 feet from the troika in the game) with minimal consequences.

*He does go the line four times and turn the ball over twice.

**Williams made three of his five field goal attempts, his only three-point attempt, grabbed eight rebounds (three offensive), and played the aforementioned good defense to slow Salmons. He also opened the fourth quarter by making a 20-foot jumper but never attempted another shot.

The second meeting was in Milwaukee and the Bucks won 98-95 on March 22nd. From the recap:

Skiles' decision to go small neutered Josh Smith's help defense to a greater degree than Smith was able to take advantage of his size advantage in the post. Maybe that was another reason to leave Delfino isolated on Johnson. Letting the Hawks play through Johnson seriously reduced the chance of Atlanta scoring three points on a possession (as long as Delfino didn't commit a silly, relatively unlikely foul) even if it increased the chance Atlanta would score two points on a possession whereas playing through Josh Smith (matched up against Stackhouse in the post) could create open looks from beyond the arc.

The third and final meeting took place on Monday, again in Milwaukee, and the Hawks won 104-96. From the recap:

Kurt Thomas, playing in Bogut's stead, showed that he can still do three things: defend his man in the post, rebound on the defensive end, and set solid screens. The first ability could cause Atlanta problems if the Hawks insist on trying to post up Al Horford against Thomas. Milwaukee had no need to send a second defender to help Thomas. The Hawks never sent a second offensive player to help Horford, leaving the Atlanta center frustrated. As the game progressed and, presumably, the Hawks noticed how much more effective offensively Zaza Pachulia* was when he drew Thomas further away from the basket, Horford was utilized more often in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop sets and was more successful.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Quotes, Notes, and Links: Atlanta Hawks 83 Milwaukee Bucks 69

Gameflow

Highlights

Recap

Al Horford:

"It really defines what our team is about."

Josh Smith:

"We know what it takes to win. We don’t want to make the same slip-up [as in Game 5], and we want to prove everybody wrong. Everyone counted us out except the people in this locker room."

Much like the qualifying-for-the-playoffs T-shirts the organization printed up, these quotes are understandable but not especially encouraging to partisans. Certainly, the good win far outweighs any post-game comments, but this organization has a history of celebrating things that aren't really accomplishments and I suspect that many of the passionate few who commit their time and energy to supporting this team want to see them do it again Sunday before expressing similar sentiments.

Joe Johnson:

"What really won the game was defense. I don’t think we’ve been that active all season."

Al Horford:

"The guards did a good job of getting over the screens."

Josh Smith:

"Guys just got over screens. We really didn’t have to help [with switches]. It was just the will. Desire. We wanted to win this game."

There's a lot of post-game talk about the zone defense the Hawks played in the third quarter. "Zone" is not an apt description in my opinion. Incessently switching screens functions as something of a matchup zone. In the third quarter, the Hawks just switched less which forced the guards to move their feet more, which in turn, both allowed the frontcourt to maintain good help position and made it possible for the guards to push the ball toward help rather than just watch it go by.

Watch the third quarter again and you'll see it's not really a 1-2-2 zone (as Chris Sheridan called it) nor anything wildly different philosophically than what they've played before. You'll see Al Horford pick up John Salmons at the top of the key on a switch. Horford doesn't let Salmons get past him. We've seen that many times this series. What's different is that the the other four Hawks are compact and in position so Horford, in forcing Salmons to the weak side, leaves Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the corner, as the only outlet.

The "zone" involved a lot of switching of off-the-ball screens at the elbow extended (Josh Smith's fast break and-1 came from this). Not exactly a drastic change for the Hawks. What was indisputably different was the effort the Hawks made to get back and get set defensively and the degree of communication and teamwork once Milwaukee began running their sets. Milwaukee shot the ball terribly in the third quarter, but it's remarkable how much better a team can look defensively (regardless of minor tactical tweaks) when its philosophy changes from "He's not my problem, you take him." to "Let's keep them in front of us."

Scott Skiles on the third quarter defense:

"They gave a zone look, but they also go with movement, they're matching up, so they're not in a straight zone. And then sometimes they switch, so it only looks like [a zone]."

Mike Woodson:

"We just tried to mix it up a little bit. They are so good in the one-on-one position and you’re not sitting down and taking individual challenges on the ball. It becomes a nightmare."

That sort of addresses the irony of the Hawks possessing a successful offense that's predicated on creating one-on-one mis-matches and a mediocre defense that cannot prevent such opportunities.

Skiles on another key to the game:

"We missed 51 shots and (only) got eight of them back. They outplayed us, no question."

Jamal Crawford enjoyed the first really good playoff performance of his career:

"I felt like I was letting everybody down the first few games, especially the last game. I haven't slept much the last couple of days. Usually in that situation the next game can't come fast enough."

Kelly Dwyer profiles the inherent limitations of the Bucks which were exposed by Atlanta's good defensive performance:

While an open jumper is sometimes preferable to a contested shot around the basket, personnel has to be accounted for here, and that extends to coach Skiles. His teams in Phoenix, Chicago and (to a ridiculous degree) Milwaukee have long struggled to earn free-throw attempts, and while Atlanta did a sound job to contest close shots without fouling, the Bucks can't decline finishing opportunities in the paint in favor of tossing the ball out to perimeter jump shooters, who frankly aren't very good at shooting on the perimeter.

At Soaring Down South, Kris Willis acknowledges the offensive limitations of the Hawks which were on display in the fourth quarter:

I admit that I am as big a Joe Johnson fan that is out there. Even I had to worry that he was going to shoot us right back out of the game. The greatness of Joe is not only his scoring ability but his ability to make others better with his passing. That is where he could be most effective now and it would open things up for him offensively as well. However, the Hawks stand around on offense more than any team still playing in the playoffs.

At Bucksketball, Jeremy Schmidt examines the role playoff pressure may or may not have played in Game 6.

In the recap at Brew Hoop, Alex Boeder, dubs Milwaukee's Game 6 loss "buzzsuicide."

Confirmation that the Hawks will have a summer league team.