Hobbled Hawks Meet Short-Handed Celtics in Possible First Round Playoff Preview

As Joe Johnson told Atlanta Journal-Constitution Hawks beat writer Chris Vivlamore following the Hawks' 116-84 victory over the Detroit Pistons Wednesday, "We control our own destiny. We just have to win out and everything else will take care of itself."

This is true, as the Hawks remain one game ahead of the Boston Celtics in the loss column. The Hawks must finish with a better record than the Celtics to win home court advantage in the first round since Boston owns the tie-break, having won the season series.

So, as Joe said, the Hawks just need to win out. Easier said than done. The Hawks finish the season with 4 home games against teams that have clinched playoff berths. Starting with tonight's matchup against possible first round opponent the Celtics, the Hawks close the season against the Knicks on Sunday, The L.A. Clippers on Tuesday and the defending-champion Mavericks on Thursday.

Should the Hawks fail to secure home court advantage, they may come to regret their failure to show up against the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. Meanwhile, Orlando remains a game behind the Hawks and will have a hard time overtaking them for the 5th seed. The Magic, after news of Dwight Howard's season-ending back surgery, face road games against Utah, Denver and Memphis (all in playoff position) with a single home game against Charlotte.

Thus, tonights game at Phillips Arena against the Celtics has a reasonable probability of being a preivew of the Hawks' first round playoff series. A win tonight would put the Hawks two games ahead of the Celtics in the loss column, allowing a slightly greater margin for error. In that scenario, the Hawks would need to go 2-1 against their remaining opponents to finish with a better record than the Celtics.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat's 83-72 win over the Chicago Bulls Thursday night has tightened the race for the top seed. Chicago remains a game up in the loss column, but if the teams finish with identical records, the tie break could be interesting. The teams split four regular season games and both won division titles, eliminating two potential tie break scenarios. The third tie break would be winning percentage against Eastern Conference teams (Chicago is currently 36-10, Miami 35-10), followed by winning percentage against playoff teams from the Eastern Conference, then the Western Conference. The final tie break would be net points from all games played.

The significance for the Hawks of the tight race for the top playoff seed in the conference is that the Celtics will play a motivated Heat squad Tuesday after facing the Hawks. A loss to the Heat by the Celtics would provide the Hawks with additional margin for error.

Previewing Hawks/Lakers with Andy Kamenetzky of Land O'Lakers

To help wile away the long hours until the Hawks and Lakers tip-off at 10:30pm Eastern Standard Time tonight, I traded some questions and answers with Andy Kamenetzky, one half of the Land O'Lakers blog on ESPN Los Angeles and on Twitter at @ESPNLandOLakers. You can head over there to read my responses to Andy's questions.

Bret LaGree: Mike Brown was put in a tough position: replace an all-time great coach following a bad playoff loss, have almost no practice time thanks to the lockout, and no quality additions to the roster. How well has he coped with circumstance?

Andy Kamenetzky: It's been a mixed bag. On one hand, the obstacles you cited are legitimately difficult to overcome. And beyond not adding an impact player, the Lakers lost one in Lamar Odom, and this "Trade Exception" fella they got in exchange has brought little to the table. The roster holes are big. Having said that, Brown's not without fault. His rotations have been unpredictable, which has prevented the second unit from jelling as much as possible. (I also get a sense players have grown annoyed.) And those who questioned his offensive creativity upon getting hired (like me) are gaining ammo. He's made adjustments with Kobe and Pau's spots on the floor, but in terms of what's being run, the offense remains a mess. The players at his disposal are problematic, but he's also paid to figure out a way to maximize what he has. I'm not convinced he has.

BL: Kobe Bryant is having a great season. Given his age, is there a sense that this might be his last hurrah? If so, does that make watching him this season any different an experience from watching him during his past great seasons?

AK: To some degree, sure. This is Kobe's 16th season and when you include playoff games, he's played roughly the equivalent of 19 campaigns. With all sincere respect to Bryant's conditioning, his German doctor's handiwork and a skill set still envied by 95 percent of the NBA, the mileage is the mileage. And the overwhelming amount of responsibilities this season increases that toll even more. Truth be told, Kobe's already slowed down this season. He's only shot above 40 percent once since February began and fourth quarters have treated him increasingly worse. Bryant's opening 15-20 games were amazing and fun, but anybody moderately realistic knew this wasn't sustainable. At some point, a trip back to Earth had to be expected.

Of course, Bryant's still performing at a very high level, and I expect he will next season as well. But there's only so much sand in the hour glass. I'd be lying if I claimed not to have contemplated the end. In that sense, I am conscious of appreciating Kobe while I can, even if I don't suspect the end is literally around the corner.

BL: Since so many players aren't trade eligible until March 1st, it's almost as if we're waiting for the transfer window to open. Once it becomes simpler to make trades on March 1, what do the Lakers need and how realistic are chances of acquiring what they need?

AK: The biggest needs are two-fold. First, a perimeter player capable of creating his own shot and/or someone else's. This roster is desperately low on wing players not named "Kobe" or "Bryant" with either skill set, much less both. From there, a reliable outside shooter. The Lakers aren't just the worst outside shooting team in the NBA. They're possibly the worst outside shooting team I've ever seen. Beyond the empty possessions, opponents regularly pack the lanes to force action away from the action. The Lakers rarely make them pay, which reduces the effectiveness of a formidable inside game.

Oh, and Dwight Howard... right?

As for the odds of filling these needs, easier said than done. The Lakers aren't steeped in trade assets, unless Metta World Peace's market value is deceptively high. And the players potentially drawing the most interest (Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol) are in theory being saved until D12 is off the market. The trade exception from the Odom deal could be handy, but who knows when/if they want to use it. It appears the Lakers are in a holding pattern until Orlando figures out what to do with Howard, save a move around the margins.

BL: The Western Conference is far more open than the Eastern Conference. For example, John Hollinger's playoff odds give the Lakers almost equal chances of winning the division and missing the playoffs. Is the compressed schedule amplifying the excitement of the playoff race or making you lament the quality of play during what could be a historically competitive battle for playoff spots and seeding out West?

AK: Considering the Western Conference is always exciting and competitive, the weaker on-court product stands out more to me. Scoring is down. Fluidity is down. Sloppiness is on the rise. A dog fight is expected in the west, but typically the play matches the superior competition. This season, not so much, and that's a shame.

Opening Night Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (0-0) at New Jersey Nets (1-0)

For some thoughts more specific to tonight's game, check out the 3-on-3 at Nets Are Scorching.

I don't doubt the sincerity of Larry Drew's desire to have his team play more aggressive defense and push the tempo this season, nor that Jeff Teague's presence will aid both efforts. Aggressive defense and The Horford Treatment cannot co-exist and I'm confident that, if picking up two fouls in the first half while playing aggressive defense leads to lengthy spells on the bench, then players will adjust as necessary to keep themselves on the court.

As for tempo, last season the Hawks finished 27th in possessions per game, same as in 2009-10, but, effectively, last year's team played at a much slower pace. Mike Woodson's last team had so few possessions because it never turned the ball over and got a lot of offensive rebounds. Larry Drew's first team turned the ball over at a roughly league-average rate and never got an offensive rebound. I expect the Hawks, in the half-court under Drew, will continue to run several seconds of motion offense to create a jump shot, so they'll have to increase tempo by creating transition opportunities to off-set a deliberate half-court offense.

The main reason the Hawks haven't pushed the tempo more often over the past several seasons has been poor defensive rebounding. Under Woodson, the switching defense often inverted the personnel, having big men challenge shooters and guards left to block out on the boxes. Last season, Larry Drew admittedly suffered from Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams being limited by injury but also gave over 1,000 minutes, for reasons good and ill, to poor rebounding big men Jason Collins and Josh Powell.

Also, Jamal Crawford (from John Hollinger's player comments):

Crawford predictably regressed from his fluke rule season in 2009-10...his rebounding went from merely poor to You Can't Be Serious. Crawford is 6-6 and athletic; nobody expects him to outmuscle Kevin Love on the block, but you'd think a few boards would come his way just by dumb luck. Instead he rebounded only 3.4 percent of missed shots when he was on the floor, the single worst figure in the entire NBA. In a league that employed J.J. Barea, Earl Boykins, Aaron Brooks, Patty Mills and Pooh Jeter, among others, Crawford -- who, again, is 6-6 -- managed to land at rock bottom.

This was not only the worst figure in the NBA last season, it was very nearly the worst in history by a player 6-6 or taller. However, it turns out that there was another 6-6 Hawk who was even worse -- Randy Wittman posted a 3.3 in 1986-87, as did one other player (Jim Paxson in 1989-90).

Crawford will be missed whenever the second unit struggles to score (which, admittedly, could be a nightly occurrence) but his absence will be a virtue every time the other team has the ball, both before and after a shot goes up.

Live on The Wine and Gold Pregame Podcast Tonight

I'll be joining Glenn Moore and Brendan Bowers around 6:20pm EST. All the info for listening and participating is here.

Hawks/Grizzlies Preview

Chip Crain at 3 Shades of Blue previews tonight's pre-season clash, the last of the less serious exhibition games the Hawks play this month.

David Thorpe Breaks Down Game 3

Scouts, Inc. and ESPN.com's David Thorpe previews Game 3 of the Hawks-Celtics series, providing a succinct and professional description of this awful halfcourt offense we've watched all season long:

Johnson faces the entire Celtics defense when he has the ball. Atlanta is not spreading the floor enough for him, allowing help defenders to move off their man and toward JJ without being spread too thin. Marvin Williams hurts the Hawks with his inability to make 3s (1-for-10 on the year), especially when he's stationed on the wing opposite Johnson when JJ has the ball. It's often his man that provides the most help.

Thorpe goes on to outline how the Hawks could adjust:

With Bibby struggling from 3 (18-for-58 in April), it may call for more playing time for Josh Childress, who can stretch the defense opposite Johnson and then push Williams down to the baseline with Al Horford and Josh Smith. This would open up the middle for Johnson and Childress to use their size on drives if the Celtics close them out on the perimeter too hot.

Both guys can make plays inside as long as they have space to operate. Post-entry passes and side pick-and-rolls are being clogged up by Celts defenders because the men they are guarding are crashing toward the basket instead of maintaining their spacing integrity by staying behind the 3-point line.

To his credit and/or in deference to reality, Thorpe does not predict that the Hawks will make this or any other adjustment. The whole piece is excellent and worthy of your time.

Preview: Hawks at Nets

New Jersey lost 112-96 at Chicago last night to fall a full game behind the Hawks in the crawl race for 8th playoff spot. Devin Harris sprained his ankle late in the first half and did not return. David Waldstein of The Star-Ledger reports this morning that "unless [Harris] makes a remarkable recovery overnight, he probably won't play tonight against Atlanta."

Avoiding the extremely likely prospect of Devin Harris beating Mike Bibby off the dribble whenever he wished to tonight is a significant boon for Atlanta's playoff chances. In his recap of last night's game, Waldstein makes it clear that he does not believe that Harris's injury affected the outcome of last night's game:

"...there is no excuse for this poor showing other than the Nets just didn't show up when they most needed to.

It wasn't the injury, or the absence of Nenad Krstic due to the flu. The Nets' uneven effort and lack of urgency, especially in the brutal 29-8 second quarter, is what cost them the game."

Waldstein's game recap is full of quotes that encourage those anticipating tonight's game from Atlanta's perspective.

Vince Carter:

"It's just disappointing to come out and play like this. We're better than that. We're playing to continue our season and we can't have these type of showings if we want to play in the playoffs.

Lawrence Frank:

"The second quarter was a combination of poor shots, missed turnovers, poor possessions, and then their transition attack wiped us out."

"The fastbreak points are very misleading because that second quarter they were just running the ball down our throats. That second quarter we allowed our missed shots or bad possessions or poor shot selection to affect our transition defense and our defensive will.

Vince Carter scored 22 points, Richard Jefferson 21, and Marcus Williams 16 but no other Net scored more than 8 points and the two who did scored either all (Maurice Ager) or half (Stromile Swift) of their points in garbage time.

Even a cursory glance at New Jersey's season stats shows that in Harris's absence New Jersey lacks a third scoring option. Should Marcus Williams be forced into that role (and unusually heavy minutes for the second night in a row) he may score but his buckets will come at the cost of many shot attempts and frequent turnovers.

The Drive for 35 Continues Tonight

It may be the cold medicine talking but I'm genuinely excited about tonight's tilt between the New York Knicks (18-39) and the Atlanta Hawks (23-32). I'm not expecting good basketball. (Thus diminishing the possibility that this is the cold medicine talking.) I'm expecting between 6 and 12 minutes, most of them likely to occur consecutively at the beginning of the game where Josh Smith and Al Horford will be guarded by Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry which should provide the Hawks with the opportunity (again) to build a lead too big to squander completely.

Such is The Drive for 35.

UPDATE: Hawks.com gets answers to its questions about the Knicks from the man who knows them best. The Knickerblogger game thread for tonight is here.

Hawks at Bobcats: Small Forwards Need Not Apply

Charlotte announced yesterday that Gerald Wallace would miss tonight's game with a strained right foot. Tonight's game will be the fifth of the last six that Wallace has missed. In the last two games, Sam Vincent has dealt with Wallace's absence by giving 68 minutes to Jeff McInnis. That rather raises the bar for Mr. Woodson this evening. Maybe he'll respond by putting Acie Law IV, Tyronn Lue, and Anthony Johnson all on the floor at the same time.

Charlotte has lost seven in a row by an average margin of 17.7 points. Their nine-point loss at home to the Lakers on Monday night is the only game they've lost by fewer than 14 points during the streak.

Atlanta will likely be without Josh Childress who flew back from Charlotte today to get an MRI on his right knee:

Childress hyperextended his knee late in Tuesday's home loss to Detroit. He finished the game but said he woke up in pain at the team hotel in Charlotte Wednesday.

"We don't think it's anything to [sic] serious," Childress told the AJC while sipping a smoothie at the Charlotte airport. "But they wanted me to get it checked out just to be safe."

It's the little things Sekou contributes, I find.

Preview: Nuggets at Hawks

I'm extremely interested in the game tonight because the Nuggets, in addition to providing the sternest test Atlanta's faced since their trip to Dallas back in 2007, might force the Hawks to play to their strengths.

The Hawks have two modes of offense which work fairly well: 1) intermittent stretches of transition buckets earned off of forced turnovers and defensive rebounds and 2) intermittent stretches when Joe Johnson cannot miss no matter the difficulty of the shot or the number of defenders guarding him.

It's obvious that the Hawks are incapable (or unwilling to make a priority) of pushing the ball up the court after every forced turnover or defensive rebound. That's where Denver provides me with hope. The Nuggets average 98.4 possessions per game. They play at a pace a full 10% faster than do the Hawks.

Even if the Hawks drag the pace half-way down to their usual 89 possession pace they will have several more opportunities to play to their offensive strengths: scoring before the defense gets set, offensive rebounding, and getting to the foul line.

It's not a new request of mine that Mike Woodson take advantage of every opportunity he has to play Josh Childress (in lieu of one of the point guards) alongside Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, and Al Horford. I think tonight is an opportunity to lean heavily on that lineup. No one on Atlanta's roster is capable of staying in front of Allen Iverson. The one thing Denver does not do well defensively is rebound. That lone weakness should be magnified in Nene's absence. In a game that should feature a lot of Alanta Hawks shot attempts, it's imperative they use their best percentage shooter and second-best offensive rebounder as much as possible. It would also be a fortuitous night to act as if Al Horford has a six rather than five foul limit.

Preview Scraps: Toronto at Atlanta

The Canadian Press reported yesterday that Andrea Bargnani returned to practice on Monday and could return to the Raptor lineup tonight "marking the first time Toronto has had its trio of stars - Bargnani, T.J. Ford and Chris Bosh - together in the lineup since Nov. 20."

This afternoon, The Sports Network lists Bargnani as questionable. No word on the status of Childress, Lue, or Pachulia.

Toronto's offense (ranked 9th in league) will provide (especially if Bargnani's healthy) a third consecutive good test for the suddenly stingy (10th in the league) Atlanta defense.

Preview: Hawks at Magic

Tonight's game (a preview of a first-round playoff game, were the season to end, quite unexpectedly, today) kicks off a big week for the Hawks.

Josh Smith is reading a lot into the home wins over Minnesota (barely) and Memphis:

This is honestly the first time we've actually carved out an identity for ourselves. I know that sounds crazy but in my eyes, we're just now hitting our stride. For a long time we've played to whatever style was dictated to us. And we've had our struggles, and probably will have some more, everybody does. But the last couple of games have felt different.

There's no new news about Josh Childress's groin. He must still be planning to play tonight.

Orlando may be without Keith Bogans (bruised right quad muscle) tonight. Tim Povtak of The Orlando Sun-Sentinel reports that that might mean a start for Keyon Dooling. Decent-to-good choices to replace an injured starter--that's one of the major differences between the two franchises, though not as important as either a big free agent signing being Rashard Lewis rather than Zaza Pachulia or Speedy Claxton, or getting to draft Dwight Howard.

Howard may not be the Hawks greatest worry tonight. (Sure, he'll be the best player on the court but he's going to do what he's going to do so why wear yourself out worrying about him. Just start a pool about when Lorenzen Wright fouls out tonight.) No, the greatest threat to the Hawks tonight will be the tag-team of Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo. Atlanta has demonstrated no ability to guard quick point guards at any point this season. If Anthony Johnson and Acie Law IV create a third option for Orlando's offense, the game could be out of hand before the Hawks have a chance to start warming up early for the third quarter.

Hawks, Hornets, Links

Acie Law IV won't play tonight but "If his showing during practice Thursday is any indication, Law's heading in the right direction."

Marvin Williams may or may not play. He's still listed as day-to-day. If he plays, he's sure to be unfavorably compared to Chris Paul by people who rated Williams ahead of Paul prior to the 2005 NBA Draft.

The Hornets are, understandably, taking account of themselves after losing to the Timberwolves in New Orleans on Monday night.

I'll take account of tonight's game thanks to the magic of modern DVR technology due to a prior commitment.

SI.com's Marty Burns has taken notice of the Hawks inconsistency, poor roster construction, and concomitant struggles to deal with injuries. Nothing new there for Hawks regulars but for a Hawks blogger who struggles to find something worth linking to in the local paper on a regular basis, it's useful.

Better Late Than Never Dept.: Drew Ditzel covered similar themes in his liveblog of the loss in Chicago.

Charlotte Game Preview and Links

GAME PREVIEW

Charlotte provides a good opportunity for the Hawks to bounce back from the disappointing loss Sunday. (Here's hoping the crowd contributes to the home court advantage and that Sunday's sparse, lifeless attendance remains an aberration.) The Bobcats beat Miami 91-76 in Charlotte last night to move to 4-3 on the season.

I wouldn't expect much in the way of scoring tonight. The Hawks enter the game playing at the 6th slowest pace and are 21st most efficient offense in the NBA. Charlotte has played at the 2nd slowest pace and are just the 26th most efficient offense. The Bobcats have scored 83 or fewer points in three of their seven games. In the second game of their only previous back-to-back of the young season, they scored 63 points in Philadelphia.

Fans of Shelden Williams (by which I mean fans of defensive rebounding and bumping into things) will be disappointed to learn that Zaza Pachulia ("I don't feel any soreness anymore. I feel 100 percent.") is expected back tonight.

POWER RANKINGS

Back-to-back losses dropped the Hawks into the second division of everyone's power rankings this week. They're 17th at DIME Magazine, 18th at http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/marty_burns/11/12/power.rankings/1.html (Marty Burns), 19th at ESPN.com (Marc Stein), and 21st at NBA.com (John Schuhmann).

LINKS

SI.com's Drew Packham ranks Al Horford 2nd and Acie Law IV 5th among NBA rookies 10 days into the season.

Tom Ziller writes about Chris McCosky reporting what the voices in his head are saying at the FanHouse. Matt from Atlanta Hawks Blog makes an appearance in the comments there.

As do I, attempting to create a grass-roots movement to give Josh Smith what Hoopinion commenter Pooh has already dubbed "a crap nickname." Early returns on my attempt at a little blog-based judo on McCosky's baseless insult are not promising but I make no promises regarding what I shout the next time Josh Smith attacks the basket and finishes explosively.

Nets Preview, Links, and Links to Links

NETS PREVIEW

I'm not going to write a lot of game previews here. Over the last couple of years at The Phog Blog that there's only so many ways to write, "If they take care of the ball, force some turnovers, make their shots, force misses, control the offensive and/or defensive glass, etc., etc., they'll win." If I have something of particular (assumed) interest, I'll share it.

Of particular interest tonight should be the difference in athleticism between the Hawks and the Nets. Nenad Krstic is still recovering from his ACL tear, Vince Carter's sore thumb is affecting both his jump shot and ball-handling, and Jason Kidd has a thigh bruise. In perfect health the Nets frontline would be at an athletic disadvantage against the Hawks. It's the impact of Kidd's thigh bruise that I'll be watching most closely tonight. If he's visibly hobbled, there's a chance the Hawks' point guards could appear to be adequate defensively.

Regular Hawks watchers are well away that an advantage in athleticism does not necessarily result in any tangible basketball advantages, but it does increase the likelihood that the Hawks start the year (a better than expected) 2-1. Of course, simply having Josh Smith play well past the first quarter would go a long way to securing that second win tonight.

STAT LINKS

I've added links to the Hawks' pages at BasketballValue.com, 82games.com, and Knickerblogger.net in the Hawks Links section at the right. I wouldn't choose to draw conclusions from the numbers after just two games, but I'll be sure to do so as the season progresses. Especially if any of the numbers should reinforce any opinions or prejudices I already hold.

POWER RANKINGS

The first week power rankings are out at SI.com (Marty Burns), ESPN.com (Marc Stein), NBA.com (John Schuhmann), and FOXSports.com (DIME Magazine).

LINKS TO LINKS

Micah Hart's Daily Links on the Hawks BasketBlog make some (but not all) of this post redundant and are essential reading.